Volume 65 - Number 4 - Winter 1999

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations and Natural Resources

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

65:41308 de Sherbinin, Alex. Two threats to global security. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 232-50 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
The author makes the case that population growth and patterns of economic globalization (as manifested by consumption, trade, and the growing power of multinational corporations) may have grave and unforeseen consequences for the environment and humankind. The prospects for change to an alternative future that is based on simpler lifestyles, greater equity, meaningful work, and social justice are reviewed.
Correspondence: A. de Sherbinin, World Conservation Union, Avenue du Mont-Blanc, 1169 Gland, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41309 Mason, Andrew. Population and economic growth in East Asia. East-West Center Working Papers, Population Series, No. 88-25, Nov 1999. 54 pp. East-West Center: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"The connection between demographic change and economic development in East Asia is the subject of this volume. Two broad sets of issues are addressed. First, did rapid demographic change contribute to East Asian economic development? Specifically, what aspects of the region's development were influenced by demographic trends--economic growth, inequality, the economic status of women? What were the mechanisms through which population influenced the East Asian economies? What institutional, political, social, and economic features conditioned the influence of population on development? Does the East Asian experience provide useful lessons for other developing countries, or is its experience unique? Second, what was the role of population policy in East Asia? What policies and programs were implemented and at what cost? What evidence is there that East Asia's population policies achieved their goals? Is it possible or likely that demographic outcomes were a product only of the region's rapid economic development? Or did population policies accelerate the transition to low fertility and slower population growth? These issues are addressed in this and the other chapters of this volume through a detailed examination of the experience between 1960 and 1990 of six East Asian economies: Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, Thailand, and Indonesia."
Correspondence: A. Mason, East-West Center, Program on Population, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41310 Schulz, James H. Population ageing: economic growth and generational transfers (labour, productivity and saving issues). In: Population ageing: challenges for policies and programmes in developed and developing countries, edited by Robert Cliquet and Mohammed Nizamuddin. 1999. 123-40 pp. United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]: New York, New York; Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudie [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.
"This contribution is about population ageing and its impact on economic growth. It makes two major points: (a) that to address the issue of population ageing and growth, one must do more than look at demographic statistics and ratios and (b) that in addressing the issue of the future of social security, one needs to look at more than `promoting saving', which currently dominates most policy discussions." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: J. H. Schulz, Brandeis University, Department of Economics, 415 South Street, Waltham, MA 02254-9110. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41311 Wigger, Berthold U. Pay-as-you-go financed public pensions in a model of endogenous growth and fertility. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1999. 625-40 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"Employing an overlapping generations endogenous growth model in which parents derive utility from having children and, additionally, expect children to support them in old age, this paper explores the interrelation between growth, fertility, and the size of pay-as-you-go financed public pensions. It is shown that small sized public pensions stimulate per capita income growth, but further increases in public pensions eventually reduce it. Fertility, on the other hand, falls by an increase in public pensions if they are either small or large. Medium sized public pensions, however, may stimulate fertility."
Correspondence: B. U. Wigger, University of Mannheim, Department of Economics, A5, 68131 Mannheim, Germany. E-mail: wigger@econ.uni-mannheim.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Economic Development and Population in Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

65:41312 Asubonteng-Manu, Edward; Naguib, Mohamed. Demographic situation, population control and development in Ghana. In: CDC 27th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 1998. 64-90 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The objective of this paper is to highlight the main obstacles to economic and social progress in Ghana. Some of these obstacles originate from the demographic aspects of people in terms of fertility, mortality and migration.... The paper also aimed at increasing the awareness of planners that the population issue in Ghana concerns the rate of growth and not the number of people, so the earlier measures are taken the better. The paper introduces the country's population policy [and] describes the past, present and future trend of Ghana's population and its impact on the socio-economic development of the country. The conclusion is that development goals of the country may not be achieved if efforts are not made to slow down the country's rapid population growth."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41313 Bidou, Jean-Etienne. Overpopulation and population density. The effect of two regional development projects on demographic trends in Burundi. [Surpeuplement et densité de la population. L'effet de deux projets de développement régionaux sur l'évolution démographique au Burundi.] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 363-74 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
The extent to which two long-term development projects, carried out in the provinces of Bututsi and Buyenzi in Burundi, have affected the country's general problem of overpopulation is assessed. Differences between the demographic impacts of the livestock project in Bututsi and the coffee-production project in Buyenzi are discussed. The significant population increase threatening the Buyenzi project, the more successful of the two, is noted.
Correspondence: J.-E. Bidou, Université Michel de Montaigne-Bordeaux III , Esplanade Michel-Montaigne, Domaine Universitaire, 33405 Talence Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41314 Bloom, David E.; Sachs, Jeffrey D. Geography, demography, and economic growth in Africa. Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, No. 2, 1998. 207-95 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The case is made that the problems posed by the geography of Africa play a major role in its relative failure to achieve satisfactory levels of socioeconomic development. "The paper is organized as follows. In the next section we discuss the general problems of tropical development and put Africa's problems in worldwide tropical perspective. We then discuss demographic trends in Africa, emphasizing the low levels of population density and urbanization and the delayed demographic transition compared with other developing regions. In the following section we use standard cross-country growth equations, augmented with demographic and geographic variables, to account for the relative roles of geography, demography, and policy in Africa's recent growth experience. We then consider future growth strategies, and especially the urgent need for urban-based export growth in manufacturing and services." Comments are included by Paul Collier (pp. 274-81), Christopher Udry (pp. 281-6), and others (pp. 287-9).
Correspondence: D. E. Bloom, Harvard University, Harvard Institute for International Development, 14 Story Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

65:41315 Carmichael, Gordon A. Population and development in the Asia Pacific region. Asia Pacific Viewpoint, Vol. 38, No. 3, Dec 1997. 187-308 pp. Blackwell: Malden, Massachusetts/Oxford, England. In Eng.
This special issue presents six papers that examine a number of the demographic issues currently confronting Asia-Pacific region. They include socioeconomic development, demographic aging, development planning, urbanization, the environment, and migration.
Selected items are cited elsewhere in this issue of Population Index.
Correspondence: Blackwell Publishers, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, England. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

65:41316 Chine, Nkado N. Rapid population growth and socio-economic development in Nigeria (1972-1992). In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 40-65 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
In this study, the author aims to examine the interaction between rapid population growth and socioeconomic development in Nigeria and to analyze the impact of population growth on natural resources and the environment. The primary conclusion is that the rapid rate of population growth is slowing the pace of socioeconomic development, and that slow development in turn favors a continuation of high levels of fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41317 Goerlitz, Uwe. Demographic trends in Mexico, 1990-1995: critical observations on population growth, migration, and urbanization in the newest OECD member country. [Demographische Entwicklung in Mexiko 1990-1995: Kritische Betrachtungen zu Bevölkerungswachstum, Migration und Verstädterung im jüngsten OECD-Mitgliedsland.] In: Demographie und Politik, edited by Jürgen Dorbritz and Johannes Otto. 1999. 219-52 pp. Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
The author performs a demographic analysis of Mexico's population growth from 1990 to 1995 due to migration and natural increase. Data are from the 1990 census and the 1995 government count, and the analysis is performed by metropolitan areas. In conclusion, the author notes the heterogeneous age structure of the population, coupled with strong regional differences in development, and economic instability. He presents several possible plans for economic development and suggests that developmental sustainability must be attained and social inequality addressed in order for Mexico to solve its problems. Well-planned urban networks are presented as possible solutions.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41318 Jiang, Leiwen. Population and sustainable development in China. Population and household scenarios for two regions. NethurD Publication Series A, Pub. Order No. Nugi 651/661. [1999]. xii, 310 pp. Netherlands Graduate School of Housing and Urban Research: Utrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Dut.
"This study focuses on two regions of China, Shenzhen and Taihe, which are representative of developed and underdeveloped regions. It inspects the historical patterns in the relationships between, on the one hand, socio-economic development, urbanisation, and population policies, and population and household dynamics, on the other hand, in a regional systemic theoretical framework. Employing the macro-dynamics ProFamy model, size and composition of population and households in the ensuing 50 years are projected for the two study regions. On the basis of our projection results, we discuss the ongoing impacts of population and household dynamics on sustainable socio-economic and environmental development across the regions."
Correspondence: Universiteit van Amsterdam, Nethur-Demography, Nieuwe Prinsengracht 130, 1018 VZ Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41319 Jones, Gavin W.; Raharjo, Yulfita. People, land and sea: development challenges in eastern Indonesia. ISBN 0-7315-2314-8. Nov 1995. 174 pp. Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Center for Population and Manpower Studies: Jakarta, Indonesia; Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The purpose of this monograph is to present an overview of population trends and issues in the five [Indonesian] provinces covered (Nusa Tenggara Barat, Nusa Tenggara Timur, Timor Timur, Maluku and Irian Jaya), and a preliminary assessment of their implications for economic and social development in the region." The chapters are: Introduction, by Gavin W. Jones; The setting, by Adrian C. Hayes, Suko Bandiyono, and Gavin W. Jones; Development planning and implementation in eastern Indonesia, by Riwanto Tirtosudarmo; Population growth and change, by Alan Gray, T. H. Hull, Aswatini A. Raharto, Daliyo, and G. W. Jones; The health of the people, by Yulfita Raharjo and Roosmalawati Ruslan; The family and its wellbeing, by Titik Handayani and Terrence H. Hull; Family planning and achievement of desired family size, by Terence H. Hull and Titik Handayani; Education and employment: the key to sustained development, by Laila Nagib, Gavin W. Jones, and Riwanto Tirtosudarmo; and Population and environment issues, by Adrian C. Hayes and Deny Hidayati.
Correspondence: Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41320 Lu, Huei-chung. An analytic framework of aging based on the optimal population growth. Journal of Population Studies, No. 20, Oct 1999. 139-65 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
The author attempts a new approach to the study of population aging by focusing on the moment at which the age structure of a given population begins to have a negative impact on the economy, which is defined as the optimal population growth rate. A theoretical framework is proposed which provides a method of finding this optimal growth path for a given country. "The research will use Chu's (1997) first-degree stochastic dominance analytical framework to define `aging' and prove that a society can [reach] some economic objectives...by effectively reducing the birth rate, when the population growth is above the optimal level. On the other hand, a society's economic objective would deteriorate when aging occurs at the time that population growth is below the optimal level." The geographical focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: H.-c. Lu, Fu-Jen Catholic University, Department of Economics, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41321 Mengele, Helima J. The essence of demographic analysis in development planning: a case of Tanzania. In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 66-88 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author describes how Tanzania has attempted to include the population factor in the development planning process since 1988. The focus is on the relationship between fertility and development planning, and on identifying the sectors that need to be improved if fertility is to decline. These include changes in education, employment, and marriage patterns that will improve the status of women and may help lower fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41322 Mundle, Sudipto; Van Arkadie, Brian. The rural-urban transition in Viet Nam: some selected issues. Economics and Development Resource Center Occasional Paper, No. 15, Oct 1997. vii, 32 pp. Asian Development Bank, Economics and Development Resource Center: Manila, Philippines. In Eng.
"The paper analyzes the process of urban-rural transition under way in Vietnam in the context of its transition to a market economy. In managing this process of change, the government will face important choices on patterns of urban and rural development and the linkages between the two. Based on how the choices are made, the impact on well-being could be quite different. A negative scenario could include an overconcentration of resources in one or two metropolitan centers, with poor linkages to rural development, and the increasing gap between urban and rural areas having negative social consequences on the cities and the countryside. A more virtuous path would emphasize linkages between urban and rural development. Policy and investment options in the transition are explored within the emerging pattern of regional development."
Correspondence: Asian Development Bank, Economics and Development Resource Center, P.O. Box 789, 0980 Manila, Philippines. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41323 Ranjan, Alok. Population and development: the Indian perspective. ISBN 1-58112-844-4. 1999. 277 pp. Shyam Institute: Datia, India. In Eng.
"This monograph analyses the experiences and concerns relating to population and development in India through an empirical perspective. [The author attempts]...to establish linkages between population growth trends and patterns with social and economic development processes in the country." There are chapters on capital formation, savings, and population growth; population growth and technology evolution; food supply; energy use patterns; consumption and its environmental impact; population policy; the demographic transition; a comparison of the fertility transition in India and China; mortality associated with reproduction; status of women; and urbanization.
Correspondence: Shyam Institute of Public Cooperation and Community Development, Datia, Madhya Pradesh 475 661, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41324 Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México. Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales (Mexico City, Mexico). A demographic picture of Mexico, 1999. [Carta demográfica sobre México, 1999.] DemoS, No. 12, 1999. 43 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
This special issue presents a selection of articles on aspects of the relationship between population and development in Mexico. The contents are: Population and economic growth, by Julio Boltvinik; Demographic growth, social development, and region, by Rosa M. Rubalcava; Fertility decline and social welfare, by Carlos Welti Chanes; The politics of health, by José B. Morelos; Health and inequality, by Mario Bronfman Pertzovsky and Sergio López Moreno; Internal migration, by Rodolfo Corona Vázquez; International migration, by Rodolfo Tuirán Gutiérrez; Population distribution and economic development, by Crescencio Ruiz Chiapetto; Urban population and development, by Gustavo Garza; Population, women, and development, by Teresita De Barbieri; The indigenous population and development, by José del Val; Population, work, and development, by Brígida García Guzmán; Family, income, and development, by Orlandina de Oliveira; The population through 2050, by Virgilio Partida Bush; The future of pensions, by Roberto Ham Chande; Demography and anthropology, by Gail Mummert; The year 2000 census, by Miguel Cervera Flores; and Latin America 2000, by Juan Chackiel.
Correspondence: Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Instituto de Investigaciones Sociales, Ciudad de la Investigación en Humanidades Zona Cultural, Ciudad Universitaria, 04510 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41325 Winckler, Onn. Demographic developments and population policies in Ba`thist Syria. ISBN 1-902210-16-6. LC 99-10160. 1999. xv, 218 pp. Sussex Academic Press: Brighton, England. In Eng.
"This book traces three major demographic developments and their socioeconomic consequences in Syria during the second half of this century, notably since the Ba'th Revolution of 1963, i.e., rapid population growth, the rural-to-urban migration movement, and the temporary migration of Syrian labor to other Middle Eastern countries. Each of these developments is described and analyzed within the framework of the overall socioeconomic evolution of Syria. The book convincingly demonstrates that, during the last two decades, the demographic factor has constituted one of the major levers of both structural economic changes and political shifts in internal and foreign affairs in Syria under Ba'th regime. The decisive linkage between socioeconomic development and political change is indeed highlighted in this book. A wide range of official Syrian statistical data as well as other sources are used, including population censuses, demographic surveys, five-year development plans, and Syrian press reports that reflect the authorities' policies on various relevant issues."
Correspondence: Sussex Academic Press, 18 Chichester Place, Brighton BN2 1FF, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

K.1.3. Economic Development and Population in Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

65:41326 Cardelús, Jordi; Pascual de Sans, Angels; Solana Solana, A. Miguel. Migration, economic activity, and population in Spain. [Migracions, activitat econòmica i poblament a Espanya.] Ciència i Tècnica: Geografia, No. 15, ISBN 84-490-1656-8. 1999. 131 pp. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona: Bellaterra, Spain. In Cat.
The relationships among internal migration, economic activity, and population change in Spain over the course of the twentieth century are analyzed. The focus is on the period since 1960. There are chapters on population and migration trends over the course of the century, internal migration trends since the 1960s by province, the characteristics of internal migrants by age and occupation, and the impact of migration on the characteristics of the population.
Correspondence: Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona, Servei de Publicacions, 08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41327 Cornia, Giovanni A.; Paniccià, Renato. The transition's population crisis: nuptiality, fertility, and mortality changes in severely distressed economies. In: Population and poverty in the developing world, edited by Massimo Livi-Bacci and Gustavo De Santis. 1999. 217-49 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors argue that the current demographic crisis in Eastern Europe is directly due to the transition the Eastern European countries are undergoing. They suggest that "the large shocks in birth and death rates are compelling signs of societies in extreme distress, and [test] the hypothesis that the population crisis which has been affecting most of the region for the last few years is the result of the growing economic instability and social stress evident in the region, increasingly unfavourable expectations abut the future, and incomplete and inadequate policy action."
Correspondence: G. A. Cornia, United Nations University/World Institute for Development Economics Research (UNU/WIDER), Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41328 d'Armagnac, Janine; Blayo, Chantal; Parant, Alain. Demography and development planning. Proceedings of the Tenth National Conference on Demography, Bordeaux, May 21-23, 1996. [Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996.] ISBN 2-7332-4018-8. 1999. iii, 472 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
These are the proceedings of a conference on population and development planning. The 40 papers are organized into four sessions, which are entitled: Population and territory: some methodological problems; Some responses from development planners to demographic constraints; Planning decisions and their demographic consequences; and The challenges of development planning. The primary geographical focus of the papers is on France, but papers on other countries are also included.
Selected items are cited elsewhere in this issue of Population Index.
Correspondence: Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations, Centre Pierre Mendès France, 90 rue de Tolbiac, 75634 Paris Cedex 13, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41329 du Granrut, Charles. The impact of demographic aging: concerning the report "Ageing in OECD countries" [L'impact du vieillissement démographique: à propos du rapport de l'OCDE "Le Vieillissement dans les pays de l'OCDE"] Futuribles, No. 228, Feb 1998. 63-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
This article summarizes a 1997 publication entitled Ageing in OECD Countries: a Critical Policy Challenge. The OECD report attempts to analyze the impact of demographic aging on pensions, health and long-term care, and the labor force, as well as on budgets and capital markets.
For the report in question, see 64:30609.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:41330 Fougère, Maxime; Mérette, Marcel. Population ageing and economic growth in seven OECD countries. Economic Modelling, Vol. 16, No. 3, 1999. 411-27 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors extend computable overlapping-generations models for seven industrialized countries in order to examine the impact of demographic aging on economic growth. "The model is populated by a series of 15 rational overlapping generations that optimally choose life patterns of consumption and bequest. The modified version incorporates endogenous growth, which is generated by the accumulation of both physical and human capital. Typically, a generation invests mostly in human capital when young, and in physical capital when middle-aged. Our results show that estimates of the long-run economic effects of population ageing are significantly altered when the model features endogenous growth. The results suggest that population ageing could create more opportunities for future generations to invest in human capital formation, which would stimulate economic growth and reduce significantly the apprehended negative impact of ageing on output per capita."
Correspondence: M. Fougère, Department of Finance, 140 O'Connor, 18th Floor, East Tower, Ottawa, Ontario K1N OG5, Canada. E-mail: fougere.maxime@fin.gc.ca. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:41331 Fredriksen, Dennis. Projection of population, education, labour supply and public pension benefits: analyses with the dynamic micro-simulation model MOSART. Sosiale og Økonomiske Studier/Social and Economic Studies, No. 101, ISBN 82-537-4572-9. 1998. 123 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyrå: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng. with sum. in Nor.
The dynamic microsimulation model MOSART is used to analyze the relationships among population dynamics, education, labor supply, and public pension benefits in Norway in the context of a population that is experiencing a process of demographic aging. "The base line alternative of the analyses is a situation where `everything continues as in 1993'. Consequences for the tax level are analysed by calculating a contribution rate given by dividing public pension expenditures by the sum of wages and half the public pension expenditures (pensioners pay less taxes than wage earners). This contribution rate was 15.6 per cent in 1993, and increases to 25 per cent by year 2040 with the base line alternative. The size of the population has stabilized by this time, and the projected contribution rate is the result of structural aspects of the individual life courses. These aspects include the average number of years each respectively participates in the labour force or is a pensioner, and the ratio between average pension benefits and wages. Improved benefits and longer life expectancy explain most of the growth in the contribution rate."
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Salg- og Abonnementservice, Postboks 1260, 2201 Kongsvinger, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41332 Kato, Hisakazu. Overlapping generations model with endogenous population growth. Jinkogaku Kenkyu/Journal of Population Studies, No. 25, Dec 1999. 15-25 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng. with sum. in Jpn.
"The purpose of this paper is to investigate a simultaneous determinant mechanism between population change and economic growth using an overlapping generations model (OGM).... First, a traditional result...[the] positive relationship between income and the demand for children is derived, and we show that the direct and indirect cost of children has a negative influence on child demand.... Second, introducing a pension system, we investigate how the results on the above analysis were affected. As a result, a rise in pension benefits increased the demand for children, while an enrichment of the public pension reduces the level of capital stock since an increase in the cost of children induces private savings in a steady state. Finally, considering family allowances which support a rational individual in the decision to have children, we concluded that the policy which reduces the cost of children has a positive influence on the demand for children to a greater extent than the income policy which increases disposable earnings."
Correspondence: H. Kato, Central Research Institute of Electric Power Industry, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (Gest).

65:41333 Lagrange, Jean-Pierre. Population decrease: The main cause of unemployment? [Le déclin démographique, cause première du chômage?] Population et Avenir, No. 645, Nov-Dec 1999. 4-6 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Using data concerning France, the author makes the case that unemployment is causally linked to concerns about demographic stagnation and decline. The need for pronatalist policy measures is stressed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41334 Lee, Ronald; Skinner, Jonathan. Will aging baby boomers bust the federal budget? Journal of Economic Perspectives, Vol. 13, No. 1, Winter 1999. 117-40 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
The demographic future of the United States is examined in an effort to elucidate whether the demographic aging of the baby boom generation is likely to cause major fiscal problems for the U.S. government or not. The authors suggest that the prospects for longevity are considerably brighter than even those considered optimistic by the Social Security Administration and that "it does not seem likely that the U.S. population will start to bump against biological limits to health, nor does it seem likely that baby boomers will experience more years of frailty and poor health.... The bad [news] is that the Social Security and Medicare trust funds may face fiscal stress in the next century, regardless of what reforms are taken in this century."
Correspondence: R. Lee, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. E-mail: rlee@demog.berkeley.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:41335 Leone, Richard C. Baby boom retirement crisis: Myth or reality? In: America's demographic tapestry: baseline for the new millennium, edited by James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca. 1999. 203-17 pp. Rutgers University Press: New Brunswick, New Jersey. In Eng.
The case is made that the aging of the baby boom generation in the United States will not pose a serious threat to the nation's economy. In contrast, the author suggests that "rather than suffering, the working population in the twenty-first century should have a remarkably rosy future. On very reasonable assumptions about the future, the likelihood is that both the boomers and our youngest adults will coexist quite nicely for the next fifty years or so. Nonetheless, those who are filled with foreboding about the task of housing, feeding, and replacing the hips of aging baby boomers are right about one thing: the last chapter of America's large postwar generation will mean, as it has at every other stage of their lives, many changes in many aspects of how all of us live."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41336 Lindh, Thomas. Age structure and economic policy: the case of saving and growth. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 18, No. 3, Jun 1999. 261-77 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The age structure of the population affects aggregate saving, which affects growth through investment. Growth in turn is influenced by other age structure effects and feeds back into aggregate saving by well known life cycle mechanisms.... The connection between age structure, savings and growth in the OECD [Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development] from 1950 to 1990 illustrates how policy analysis that ignores the macroeconomic effects and feedbacks from age structure changes is liable to lead to faulty and potentially costly conclusions about policy issues." The geographical focus is on developed countries.
Correspondence: T. Lindh, Uppsala University, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 513, 751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. E-mail: thomas.lindh@nek.uu.se. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41337 Lindh, Thomas; Malmberg, Bo. Age structure effects and growth in the OECD, 1950-1990. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, Aug 1999. 431-49 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"Economic growth depends on human resources and human needs. The demographic age structure shapes both of these factors. We study five-year data from the OECD countries 1950-1990 in the framework of an age structure augmented neoclassical growth model with gradual technical adjustment.... The growth patterns of the GDP per worker (labor productivity) in the OECD countries are to a large extent explained by age structure changes."
Correspondence: T. Lindh, Uppsala University, Institute for Housing Research, Box 785, 801 29 Gävle, Sweden. E-mail: thomas.lindh@ibf.uu.se. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41338 Pecchenino, Rowena A.; Utendorf, Kelvin R. Social security, social welfare and the aging population. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1999. 607-23 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This study examines the effects of pay-as-you-go social security programs in aging economies when the middle-aged both educate their dependent children and subsidize the retirement of the old. Using an overlapping generations framework in which agents are three-period lived but timing of death in the third period is uncertain, we analyze the effects of social security tax schemes, under various demographic assumptions, on capital accumulation, education expenditures, social welfare, and economic growth. We find that in many cases social security crowds out education, and reduces economic growth and social welfare."
Correspondence: R. A. Pecchenino, Michigan State University, Department of Economics, East Lansing, MI 48824. E-mail: rowenap@pilot.msu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41339 Tsuji, Akiko. Projections of the labor force population and of future change in the dependency burden in Japan. Jinkogaku Kenkyu/Journal of Population Studies, No. 24, Jun 1999. 1-13 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Future trends in the labor force and in the old-age dependency burden in Japan are projected using official data up to the year 2025. The author concludes that the future level of old-age dependency will be about the same or even less than what has been experienced in the past, although it will be higher than the present level. The major factor affecting the old-age dependency burden is economic activity ratios, and ensuring that these remain at high levels is the key to solving the future dependency problem.
Correspondence: A. Tsuji, Waseda University, Graduate School of Human Sciences, 1-104 Totsuka-machi, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 169-8050, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

65:41340 Baudot, Barbara S.; Moomaw, William R. People and their planet: searching for balance. ISBN 0-312-21715-3. LC 98-23533. 1999. xxiv, 313 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
The ideas for this book were initiated at the Conference on Population and the Environment, held at the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy in June 1994. It contains 18 papers by various authors on aspects of the population-environment equation, which are organized into three parts entitled: Factors in the equation; The equation out of balance; and Searching for balance. The geographical focus is worldwide.
Selected items are cited elsewhere in this issue of Population Index.
Correspondence: St. Martin's Press, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41341 Birg, H.; Brüß, J.; Flöthmann, E.-J.; Schröder, E. Population increase, internal migration, and forest destruction in Indonesia. [Bevölkerungswachstum, Binnenmigration und Waldvernichtung in Indonesien.] IBS-Materialien, Vol. 44, ISBN 3-923340-38-9. 1998. xi, 231 pp. Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik [IBS]: Bielefeld, Germany. In Ger.
This analysis aims at predicting further deforestation trends in Indonesia based on the projected increase and movement of the population. The time period analyzed is from 1990 to 2100. Data are from official sources. Several possible scenarios are described based on differing assumptions.
Correspondence: Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41342 Bogue, Donald J. The ecological impact of population aging. Essays in Human Ecology, No. 4, ISBN 1-884211-06-2. 1999. 83 pp. Social Development Center: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The ecological impact of population aging in the United States is explored. Chapters are as follows: The ecological impact of population aging on neighborhood change; Neighborhoods of elderly self-care limitations and work disability; Neighborhoods of elderly poverty and affluence; Neighborhood differences in home ownership, housing costs, and living arrangement of the elderly; and The ecological impact of the impending elderly boom: a projection of neighborhood aging to the year 2030.
Correspondence: Social Development Center, P.O. Box 37-7710, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41343 Chapman, Robert. No room at the inn, or why population problems are not all economic. Population and Environment, Vol. 21, No. 1, Sep 1999. 81-97 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"It might be the case that no one ever dies from overpopulation, but certainly many have experienced a diminished quality of life. This paper will argue first, and briefly, numbers do count; second, there are good familiar arguments for restricting the cherished rights to reproduce (and by parity of reasoning property ownership) when these rights conflict with 'subsistence' rights; third, some type of government intervention is necessary and desirable if we are to efficiently curtail population growth. This is especially important if we view subsistence rights as positive rights that need official recognition and guidance."
Correspondence: R. Chapman, Pace University, Department of Philosophy and Religious Studies, New York, NY 10038. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41344 Chiarelli, Brunetto. Overpopulation and the threat of ecological disaster: the need for global bioethics. Mankind Quarterly, Vol. 39, No. 2, Winter 1998. 225-30 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Nature may not be interested in the survival of humanity. Homo sapiens is the product of an adaptive evolution, but if the species continues to indulge in unlimited reproduction and undisciplined exploitation of the earth's resources, it may bring about its own destruction as well as the destruction of other species of animals and plants."
Correspondence: B. Chiarelli, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Piazza San Marco 4, 50121 Florence, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41345 Dyson, Tim. Prospects for feeding the world. British Medical Journal, Vol. 319, No. 7215, Oct 9, 1999. 988-91 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This is a general review of the future prospects that the world's population can be adequately fed. Data are primarily from UN sources. The author concludes that population growth is the most important factor fueling the global demand for increased food production, that Sub-Saharan Africa faces the grimmest prospects for receiving adequate nutrition, and that the pace of increase in cereal yields seems to be continuing so that a Malthusian crisis in the next few decades is unlikely. A dissenting view to this relatively optimistic conclusion is provided by Maurice King (p. 991).
Correspondence: T. Dyson, London School of Economics, Department of Social Policy, London WC2A 2AE, England. E-mail: t.dyson@lse.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

65:41346 Hamilton, Clive; Turton, Hal. Population policy and environmental degradation: sources and trends in greenhouse gas emissions. People and Place, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1999. 42-62 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"The impact of population growth on the state of the environment has become a subject of vigorous public debate and has led to a number of official reports. This paper is the first systematic analysis of the implications of population growth in Australia on one of the most important environmental problems, the emission of greenhouse gases that are associated with climate change. This is especially important since Australia has signed up to international emission reduction obligations under the 1997 Kyoto Protocol."
Correspondence: C. Hamilton, Australian Institute, P.O. Box 72, Lyneham, ACT 2602, Australia. E-mail: exec@tai.org.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41347 Hayes, Adrian C. Slashing and burning: developmental transformations of population-environment relationships in Indonesia. Asia Pacific Viewpoint, Vol. 38, No. 3, Dec 1997. 251-65 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"There is growing concern that rapid development may be doing irreparable harm to life support systems and the environment throughout much of the Asia Pacific region. This paper briefly examines how the development policies of the New Order government of Indonesia have transformed the way the country exploits and manages its environmental resources."
Correspondence: A. C. Hayes, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. E-mail: axh300@coombs.anu.edu.au. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

65:41348 Heydir, Laurel. Population-environment dynamics in Lahat: a case-study of deforestation in a regency of South Sumatra Province, Indonesia. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 91-107 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
Deforestation in Indonesia is analyzed using the example of Lahat Regency in southern Sumatra. The focus is on cultivation by rural farmers in protected forest areas. "The causes of deforestation in Lahat must...be seen as a complex interaction of push and pull factors, in combination with weak government capacity for protecting these resources and a failure to provide access to other alternatives for securing a livelihood."
Correspondence: L. Heydir, Sriwijaya University, Population Research Center, Palembang, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41349 Hidayati, Deny; Hayes, Adrian C.; Yogaswara, Herry; Zaelany, Andy A. Population and environment issues in Maluku: the case of Western and Northern Seram. ISBN 979-8553-42-X. 1999. xxv, 211 pp. Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Center for Population and Manpower Studies: Jakarta, Indonesia; Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program: Canberra, Australia. In Eng; Ind.
This study examines the role of land resources in the development of Maluku in eastern Indonesia. "Specific objectives are as follows: To identify development policies and their implementation in Seram, the major Kapet of Maluku; To study the land-use patterns and resource management practices of indigenous farmers, and to understand how these patterns and practices are changing in response to development, particularly rising population pressure, transmigration, commercial logging, plantations, improvements in transportation and communication, and programs to encourage swidden cultivators to adopt settled agriculture; To establish a framework for assessing the impact of development on indigenous people and on the environment in Seram; and To present policy recommendations designed to make development in the Kapet more equitable and sustainable."
Correspondence: Indonesian Institute of Sciences, Center for Population and Manpower Studies, Gedung Widya Graha Lt. X, Jalan Gatot Subroto 10, Djakarta Selatan, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41350 Jordan, Jeffrey N. Population, environment and sustainable development: global issues. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 45-57 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
This chapter is based on preparations for and discussions that took place at a meeting of experts organized by the International Academy of the Environment in Geneva in 1993. "As a starting point, a clear conceptual framework for understanding the linkages between population and the environment is presented that can guide research and policy-making in this sphere. The framework is then applied to three case studies--desertification in Africa, environmental degradation in the Bay of Bengal, and the problems of small island states in the South Pacific--and an approach to developing policy recommendations is elucidated."
Correspondence: J. N. Jordan, Futures Group, 1050 17th Street NW, Suite 1000, Washington, D.C. 20036. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41351 Kravdal, Øystein. Has population growth restricted improvements in per capita food availability, 1970-1995? East-West Center Working Papers, Population Series, No. 106, Dec 1999. 23 pp. East-West Center: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"It is estimated, on the basis of data from FAO and some other sources, that high population growth in countries with an initial average calorie intake below 2,800 has contributed to inhibit improvements in per capita food production and availability during the 1980s and early 1990s. There are statistically significant negative effects of population growth on the growth in noncereal food crops, milk and meat production, and total food production. Because also net food import and aid shipments of cereals have responded similarly, rather than being compensatory factors, the development in total per capita calorie supply has been least satisfactory in countries with the most rapid growth."
Correspondence: East-West Center, Program on Population, 1601 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Author's E-mail: okravdal@econ.uio.no. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41352 Marquette, Catherine M.; Bilsborrow, Richard E. Population and environment relationships in developing countries: recent approaches and methods. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 29-44 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
In this chapter, the authors attempt to summarize some of the diversity of opinion and approaches that characterize the discussion concerning the relationship between population and environment in developing countries. Having first summarized the various perspectives that have been used to study this relationship, the authors then look at the diversity in the level of analysis and some data issues. They conclude that the best way to proceed toward the development of a general theory of the population-environment relationship is to concentrate on micro-level rather than macro-level approaches.
Correspondence: R. E. Bilsborrow, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square, CB 8120, 124 East Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41353 Moomaw, William R.; Tullis, D. Mark. Population, affluence or technology? An empirical look at national carbon dioxide production. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 58-70 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
The extent to which population growth is a factor in the growth of global environmental problems is examined using the example of carbon dioxide emissions. The results reveal a surprising diversity in patterns of carbon dioxide emissions among countries. The results "clearly show that population growth by itself is an important driver of [carbon dioxide] emissions mainly for low-income countries, and that it is rising affluence that correlates most strongly with carbon emissions in most other countries. The debate over what drives pollution therefore needs to be recast to recognize that it is not only the quantity of people, but also the quality of their development choices that is important. Furthermore, the relative significance of [these] factors can change over time, a finding that does not appear to have been previously recognized."
Correspondence: W. R. Moomaw, Tufts University, Global Development and Environment Institute, Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy, Medford, MA 02155. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41354 Orodho, John A. Population growth, gender and food production in Kenya: the case of small-scale farmers in Vihiga district. Union for African Population Studies Study Report, No. 33, 1998. 191 pp. Union for African Population Studies [UAPS]: Dakar, Senegal. In Eng.
This study is about the factors influencing food production and food security at the household level among small-scale rural farmers in the Vihiga District of Kenya. The data concern 320 households and were collected in the mid-1990s. The results indicate that the ability of the available land to provide an adequate food supply was being eroded by the increasing pressure of a growing population. The importance of women in food production and the continued reliance on inefficient and traditional agricultural practices is noted.
Correspondence: Union for African Population Studies, Stèle Mermoz, Km 7.5, Avenue Cheikh Anta Diop, B.P. 210007, Dakar-Ponty, Senegal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41355 Oyaya, Charles O. Population growth and sustainable land use systems: a critical analysis of population and land use planning priorities in arid and semi-arid Kajiado district. Union for African Population Studies Study Report, No. 32, 1998. xi, 131 pp. Union for African Population Studies [UAPS]: Dakar, Senegal. In Eng.
The impacts of population pressure on land use and land tenure systems in the Kajiado district of Kenya are analyzed. The study had five main objectives: "Firstly, to investigate the population growth and policy constraints to sustainable land use practices and land development. Secondly, to critically examine the existing land use and land tenure systems in Kajiado district. Thirdly, to establish the merits and demerits of land subdivision processes in the district. Fourthly, to establish the nature of land use conflicts in the district. Fifthly, to assess the impact of population growth and land use practices on the environment."
Correspondence: Union for African Population Studies, Stèle Mermoz, Km 7.5 Avenue Cheikh Anta Diop, B.P. 210007, Dakar-Ponty, Senegal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41356 Pichón, Francisco J. A mutivariate analysis of farm household land-use and forest-clearing decisions in the Amazon region of Ecuador. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 71-90 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
This is a study on the relationships among demographic factors, agricultural settlement, and environmental degradation in the Amazon frontier region of Ecuador. The author notes that the population of this region is growing faster than that of any other Amazonian region, and that its rate of deforestation is also the highest. "After reviewing the current state of knowledge regarding the dynamics of resource allocation in frontier environments, this chapter proposes a conceptual framework for understanding colonists' land-allocation behaviour, describes the findings of field research and the analysis of allocation decisions, and draws out their policy implications."
Correspondence: F. J. Pichón, University of North Carolina, University Square 300A/CB No. 8120, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41357 Pillai, Vijayan K. Air pollution in developing and developed nations: a pooled cross-sectional time series regression analysis. International Planning Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1996. 35-47 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to test a few explanations of environmental pollution. In particular the focus is on carbon dioxide emissions as an indicator of environmental pollution. A number of explanations such as the Malthusian are presented. Data are collected on carbon dioxide emissions and a number of social and economic determinants from the World Resource Institute Data Base [in 1992]. Using pooled cross-sectional time series regression analysis, models of pollution for developing and developed nations are tested separately. Results of the analysis suggest that the processes of pollution are dissimilar across developing and developed nations. Policy implications of the findings are also presented."
Correspondence: V. K. Pillai, University of North Texas, Department of Sociology, P.O. Box 13675, Denton, TX 76203-3826. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41358 Postel, Sandra L. Water, food and population. In: People and their planet: searching for balance, edited by Barbara S. Baudot and William R. Moomaw. 1999. 108-25 pp. St. Martin's Press: New York, New York; Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
The linkages between increasing water scarcity and growing global populations are described. Some countries that are particularly affected by water shortages are identified. Particular attention is given to the role of water supply in food production. The author concludes that water scarcity is a rapidly emerging constraint to raising living standards and to meeting basic needs in many regions of the world, and also that present levels of water consumption are unsustainable.
Correspondence: S. L. Postel, Global Water Policy Project, Amherst, MA. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41359 Price, David. Carrying capacity reconsidered. Population and Environment, Vol. 21, No. 1, Sep 1999. 5-26 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The concept of carrying capacity has gained broad currency, although some population ecologists are dubious about its value. This paper assesses the utility of the concept and develops an alternative understanding of population growth. First, carrying capacity is viewed in historical perspective and evidence that is supposed to support it is criticized. Then the underlying assumptions upon which it rests are reexamined.... The mechanism that is supposed to regulate population is critically reviewed. And the assumptions of balance in nature and equilibrium in biotic communities are reevaluated."
Correspondence: D. Price, 811 Mitchell Street, Ithaca, NY 14850. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41360 Saikia, Anup. Shifting cultivation, population and sustainability: the changing context of north-east India. Society for International Development, Vol. 41, No. 3, Sep 1998. 97-100 pp. Thousand Oaks, California. In Eng.
The author "examines the shifting cultivation-population-sustainability question in the north-eastern region of India which has come to the fore in recent years. He argues that the fragile hilly ecosystem has come under increasing threat due to the twin agents of shifting cultivation and spiralling population growth, the latter having rendered the former uneconomic and ecologically unsustainable."
Correspondence: A. Saikia, Arunachal University, Rono Hills, Itanagar 791112, India. E-mail: procyon@bom3.vsnl.net.in. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41361 Sambrook, Richard A.; Pigozzi, Bruce W.; Thomas, Robert N. Population pressure, deforestation, and land degradation: a case study from the Dominican Republic. Professional Geographer, Vol. 51, No. 1, Feb 1999. 25-40 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"Population pressure, deforestation, and land degradation are major ecological concerns in developing countries. This research investigates causal linkages among interrelated physical and social processes in a case study conducted within the Plan Sierra resource management region of the Cordillera Central, Dominican Republic. Results of bivariate regression analysis, based on a sample of 450 traditional hillslope farms, support a linear relationship between population pressure and deforestation at two spatial scales. However, the strength of the relationship between population pressure and forest cover change decreases over a twenty-year time frame. Results also confirm a positive relationship between deforestation and land degradation. This case study contributes to an understanding of the precise nature of these relationships at sub-national scales of analysis."
Correspondence: R. A. Sambrook, Eastern Kentucky University, Department of Geography and Planning, Richmond, KY 40475-3129. E-mail: geosambr@acs.eku.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41362 Sarhan, Alaa; Ryabov, Igor. Population issues and environment in Ukraine. In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 474-98 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
An attempt is made to assess the demographic impact of the process of environmental degradation that is occurring in the Ukraine. The results indicate that the deteriorating environment is not only affecting morbidity and mortality, but is also affecting fertility. The difficulties that the country faces in resolving these issues in an era beset with economic difficulties are noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41363 Simonsen, Anette P. Fertility and sustainable population revisited. Science, Technology and Development, Vol. 14, No. 3, Dec 1996. 120-6 pp. Glasgow, Scotland. In Eng.
"This article explores the implications of changes in fertility rates and population growth for the economy and the environment in developing countries.... The article concludes that population strategies in developing countries would do well if complemented, inter alia, with industrialisation strategies that are economical with energy and material consumption."
Correspondence: A. P. Simonsen, Norwegian Agency for Development Co-operation, Budget and Statistics Division, Oslo, Norway. Location: Indiana University Library, Bloomington, IN.

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

65:41364 Abazov, Rafis. Economic migration in post-Soviet Central Asia: the case of Kyrgyzstan. Post-Communist Economies, Vol. 11, No. 2, Jun 1999. 237-52 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng.
"The article explores economic reform in post-Soviet Kyrgyzstan and focuses on its impact on the country's labour market and economic migration. Mass and rapid privatisation and `shock therapy' have been perceived as the pillars of change in the country. However, the reform was accompanied by a number of negative factors, including fast-growing unemployment, poverty, a sharp decline in industrial and agricultural output and loss of foreign markets. All together, these problems have led to contraction of the local labour market and mass outflow of the economically active part of the population. Using the example of Kyrgyzstan the author assesses the interconnection between economic decline and economic migration in the post-Soviet era."
Correspondence: R. Abazov, La Trobe University, Department of Politics, Bundoora, Victoria 3083, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41365 Alarcón, Rafael. Recruitment processes among foreign-born engineers and scientists in Silicon Valley. American Behavioral Scientist, Vol. 42, No. 9, Jun-Jul 1999. 1,381-97 pp. Thousand Oaks, California. In Eng.
"This article examines the processes by which Indian and Mexican engineers and scientists find employment in the high-technology companies of Silicon Valley [California].... There is a much larger concentration of foreign-born engineers and scientists in Silicon Valley than in other high-technology regions of the United States. These immigrants play a crucial role in this knowledge-based industry because they have much higher levels of education than their native counterparts. The recruitment and hiring of these workers underscore the importance of the operation of social networks."
Correspondence: R. Alarcón, University of California, Cesar Chavez Center, Los Angeles, CA 90024. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41366 Arif, G. M.; Irfan, M. Return migration and occupational change: the case of Pakistani migrants returned from the Middle East. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 36, No. 1, Spring 1997. 1-37 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
"This paper examines the factors affecting occupational composition of Pakistani workers upon their return from Middle East employment by using the 1986 ILO/ARTEP Survey of Return Migrant Households.... The study shows that the economic resources gained from overseas employment gave migrants the strength to seek independent employment, and there was a clear move out of the production-service occupations into business and [agricultural] occupations.... The study [also] shows that businesses and farms established by migrant workers were small-scale."
Correspondence: G. M. Arif, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41367 Briggs, Vernon M. U.S. immigration policy and the plight of its unskilled workers. People and Place, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1999. 1-6 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"The implications of immigration to the U.S. are explored with reference to the impact on low-skilled labour markets and inequality in the U.S. Recent research indicates that low-skilled American workers are the main losers, with the result that the earnings disparity between high and low-skilled workers has widened."
Correspondence: V. M. Briggs, Cornell University, NYSSILR, Department of Labor Economics, 266 Ives Hall, Ithaca, NY 14851-0952. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41368 Brui, B. P.; Kurilina, E. V.; Varshavskaya, N. E.; Chumarina, V. Zh. Population and labor force potential of the Russian Federation in 1998. [O razvitii demograficheskikh protsessov v Rossiiskoi Federatsii v 1998 godu.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 10, 1999. 30-8 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
The demographic situation in the Russian Federation in 1998 is analyzed with respect to the probable consequences for future development, particularly as they concern the labor force potential. Consideration is given to trends in fertility, mortality, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41369 de Jong, A. H. Labour force scenarios for the European Union. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 9, Sep 1999. 9-18 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article describes the assumptions underlying the new labour force scenarios for the European Union. The scenarios are largely based on an analysis of determinants of labour force participation. Three scenarios are presented. The Baseline scenario describes a situation in which observed developments are to a large extent continued.... The Low and High scenarios describe alternative developments in different economic and cultural contexts. The High scenario assumes a favourable economic development which leads to an increase in labour force participation while in the Low scenario a fall in economic activity is assumed."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41370 DeGraff, Deborah S.; Anker, Richard. Gender, labour markets and women's work. Gender in Population Studies/Le Genre dans Les Etudes de Population, ISBN 2-87108-073-9. 1999. 33 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on women's work activities, both in the recognized labour market and in the home, in developing and industrialized countries. It considers how gender-based norms and expectations operate to influence women's work behaviour, and the documentation of that behaviour and how this relates to demographic variables." There are chapters on theoretical perspectives on gender inequality in the labor market, women's labor force and non-labor force work, and occupational segregation by sex.
Correspondence: International Union for the Scientific Study of Population, 34 rue des Augustins, 4000 Liège, Belgium. E-mail: iussp@iussp.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41371 Donahoe, Debra; Tienda, Marta. Human asset development and the transition from school to work: policy lessons for the 21st century. OPR Working Paper, No. 99-3, Jun 1999. 76 pp. Princeton University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
In this paper, the authors "focus on two investment domains that are assumed to be problematic for some adolescents and young adults, namely education and employment, and the intersection of the two institutions that govern these arenas, schools and the labor market." They look at "what aspects of the...depiction of the transition from school to work presented...are valid and...assess the scope and dimensions of the problem in light of relevant data and research findings...by examining trends in educational attainment and academic achievement." The geographical focus is on the United States and data are from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth.
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41372 El Salvador. Dirección General de Estadística y Censos (San Salvador, El Salvador). Projections of the economically active population of El Salvador, 1990-2025. [Proyección de la población económicamente activa de El Salvador 1990-2025.] Dec 1996. 119 pp. San Salvador, El Salvador. In Spa.
Labor force projections are presented for El Salvador for the period from 1990 to 2025 by sex, rural and urban area, and province. Data are from official sources, including the 1992 census.
Correspondence: Dirección General de Estadística y Censos, Ministerio de Economía, 1A Calle Pte. y 43 Avenida Nte., Apartado Postal 2670, San Salvador, El Salvador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41373 Espenshade, Thomas J. High-end immigrants and the shortage of skilled labor. OPR Working Paper, No. 99-5, Jun 1999. 9 pp. Princeton University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"The 1990 Immigration Act (IMMACT) responded to claims of an impending shortage of skilled labor in the United states...and to growing concerns that the skill levels of immigrant workers were falling farther and farther behind those of natives.... IMMACT raised the annual number of employment-based permanent resident visas from 54,000 to 140,000 and created a new temporary-worker category (H-1B) to permit U.S. employers to recruit skilled workers from abroad for professional `specialty occupations'.... In 1990 Congress decided to cap the number of newly admitted H-1B workers at 65,000 per year.... This article provides new information on the growth and changing composition of the science and engineering...workforce in the United States from 1970 to 1997 and highlights the contribution of foreign-born scientists and engineers to these trends. The data come from the 1970 and 1990 decennial censuses and from the March 1997 Current Population Survey."
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41374 Estrella Valenzuela, Gabriel; Zenteno, René M. The incorporation of women into urban labor markets in Mexico: 1988-1994. [Integración de la mujer a los mercados laborales urbanos en México: 1988-1994.] Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, Vol. 14, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1999. 675-740, 783 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This study analyzes the context of women's incorporation into the urban labor market in the recent history of Mexico." Sixteen cities are included in the analysis. "First, with the exception of certain northern, especially border cities, the structure of urban employment showed a clear trend towards de-industrialization and the expansion of distributive and personal services.... Secondly, these changes were linked to an increase in self-employment in the majority of urban centers.... Thirdly, although the real income of workers rose in urban centers, this was achieved at the cost of a greater inequity in salaries and an expansion of the wage gap between men and women. Fourthly...the great majority of urban centers saw a reinforcement of the tendency towards an increase in the age of women who participate in economic activity outside the home, a lessening of the traditional exclusion of the wives of household heads from the labor force and...a reduction in the differences in the probabilities of women's working according to the sex of the head of the household."
Correspondence: G. Estrella Valenzuela, Universidad Autónoma de Baja California, Apartado Postal 459, Avenida Alvaro Obregón y Julian Carrillo s/n, 21100 Mexicali, Baja California, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41375 Gesano, Giuseppe. Who is working in Europe? In: European populations: unity in diversity, edited by Dirk van de Kaa et al. 1999. 77-139 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The relation between demographic trends and the labour market is...an important challenge for Europe's future.... The focus is on the situation in the European Union, highlighting similarities and dissimilarities among countries." Aspects considered include differentiating jobs and workers; individual and household features in relation to the labor market; the changing pattern of the labor life cycle; and future trends and foreseeable problems.
Correspondence: G. Gesano, Università degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Instituto di Ricerche sulla Popolazione, Via Nomentana 41, Rome 00161, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41376 Grant, Mary L. Evidence of new immigrant assimilation in Canada. Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue Canadienne d'Economique, Vol. 32, No. 4, Aug 1999. 930-55 pp. Toronto, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Previous studies of the labour market experience of male immigrants to Canada have uncovered two disturbing trends: declining entry earnings for successive new immigrant cohorts and low assimilation rates. These findings suggest that many of these cohorts may never assimilate. The 1991 Census provides a first look at the immigrant cohorts arriving in the 1980s. These immigrants appear to avoid the plight of their predecessors; entry earnings have stopped falling, and those immigrants arriving between 1981 and 1985 experienced a 17 per cent assimilation rate. [The author is] unable to explain this turnaround based on the observable characteristics recorded in the census data."
Correspondence: M. L. Grant, University of Toronto, 150 George Street, Toronto, Ontario M5S 3G7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41377 Grünheid, Evelyn. On the development of gainful employment in Germany from a demographic view--historical reflections on the past decades. [Zur Entwicklung der Erwerbstätigkeit in Deutschland aus demographischer Sicht--historische Betrachtung der letzten Jahrzehnte.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 24, No. 2, 1999. 133-63 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The content and objective of this article are to focus on the determinants and developmental tendencies of the German labour market from a demographic perspective; the article thereby covers a period of about 50 years of German development. With regard to different developmental experiences for a period of 40 years in the old Federal Republic of Germany, on one side, and in the former German Democratic Republic, on the other, two separate phases of time will be focused on: with the first phase covering the time of different development between 1950 and 1989, and with the second phase starting with German reunification in 1990...."
Correspondence: E. Grünheid, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, Friedrich-Ebert-Allee 4, Postfach 5528, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41378 Kempeneers, Marianne. Career breaks among Canadian women: permanence and change. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 4, 1992. 111-27 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The author investigates women's long breaks from work in Canada. "Although women now participate almost as much as men in the labour force, there is every sign that their specific behaviour in terms of career and working time is persisting.... The substantial rise in female activity rates over the past quarter century has not gone hand in hand with a corresponding reduction of career breaks among younger women. And though motherhood is unquestionably an important factor of discontinuity, it is by no means the only one and its influence tends to regress cohortwise."
Correspondence: M. Kempeneers, Université de Montréal, Département de Sociologie, C.P. 6128, Succursale A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41379 Kim, Jongsung. Labor supply and occupational structure of Asian immigrants in the U.S. labor market. Garland Studies in the History of American Labor, ISBN 0-8153-3439-7. LC 99-18528. 1999. xv, 107 pp. Garland Publishing: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
"This book focuses on the labor supply and occupational structure of immigrants [in the United States]. In particular, this book analyzes Asian immigrants' labor supply behaviors: labor force participation decisions and hours worked. A theoretical approach is used to predict that first, the main characteristic of immigrants is a lower taste for leisure; second, immigrants' diligent disposition remains steady during their stay in the U.S. labor market. Consequently, immigrants tend to display more active labor market behavior, by participating more actively in the labor force and working longer hours than comparable natives."
Correspondence: Garland Publishing, Taylor and Francis Group, 19 Union Square West, New York, NY 10003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41380 Lévy, Michel L. The unemployed and their families. [Les chômeurs dans leur famille.] Population et Sociétés, No. 350, Oct 1999. 1-3 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Some aspects of unemployment in France are analyzed. The focus is on how unemployment affects households rather than the individuals concerned.
Correspondence: M. L. Lévy, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41381 Liefbroer, Aart C.; Henkens, Kène. Labour market careers of successive cohorts of older men in the Netherlands: changes in age at retirement and in length of working lives. Genus, Vol. 55, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1999. 101-19 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"In this contribution we examine the length of the working lives of successive cohorts of older men in the Netherlands, based on data about 1,894 men aged 55-90 years. The results show that men with a low level of education have longer labour market careers than the better educated, but the differences have become substantially smaller in recent decades; the differences among men with a high and men with a low level of education born in 1903 are almost twice as large as the differences among men born in 1937. This indicates that the social rate of return derived from an education has increased over the years."
Correspondence: A. C. Liefbroer, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. E-mail: liefbroer@nidi.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41382 Liu, Qiming; Chan, Kam Wing. Rural-urban labor migration process in China: job search, wage determinants and occupational attainment. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 99-16, Jul 1999. 22 pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes rural-urban migrants' job search process and occupational attainment in China in the 1990s.... [It] attempts to explain the unique [phenomena] in the Chinese urban labor market that are not predicted by existing migration models.... In particular, we want to explain the role of the informal sector as a permanent employment sector for rural-urban migrants and the emergence of the self-employed as the best choice for rural migrant labor."
Correspondence: University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center, Box 353340, Seattle, WA 98195. Author's E-mail: qiming_liu@yahoo.com. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41383 Marr, Bill; Siklos, Pierre. Immigrant class and the use of unemployment insurance by recent immigrants in Canada: evidence from a new data base, 1980 to 1995. International Migration Review, Vol. 33, No. 3, Fall 1999. 561-93 pp. Staten Island, New York. In Eng.
"This study examines the relationship between claiming unemployment insurance in Canada and the immigrant class in which immigrants were admitted using a new data base that combines tax and immigration records.... There are large differences among the immigrant classes in the claims made against Canada's unemployment insurance scheme. Claim rates rise rapidly in the few years after arrival no matter in which class a person happened to be admitted in or which year she or he landed, but those rates decline thereafter for all classes or landing cohorts."
Correspondence: B. Marr, Wilfrid Laurier University, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3C5, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41384 Menahem, Gila; Spiro, Shimon E. Immigrants in a restructuring economy: a partial test of theories. International Migration, Vol. 37, No. 3, 1999. 569-86 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The article addresses the occupational integration of immigrants from the former USSR into the economy of the city of Tel Aviv. This process is examined from a structural perspective, which focuses on the location of immigrants as a group in the restructuring economy of Israel's main business centre. Data from labour force surveys and income surveys conducted in 1992 and 1994 by Israel's Central Bureau of Statistics are used to analyse the distribution of veteran Israelis and recent immigrants among economic sectors and occupations."
Correspondence: G. Menahem, Tel Aviv University, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Ramat-Aviv, 69 978 Tel Aviv, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41385 Preston, Ian; Walker, Ian. Welfare measurement in labour supply models with nonlinear budget constraints. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, Aug 1999. 343-61 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with the measurement of individual welfare in labour supply models which allow for the impact of income taxation and income support schemes on labour supply decisions.... To illustrate the issues we use estimates of a discrete choice model of labour supply for United Kingdom lone mothers to compute alternative welfare measures which might be considered as having intuitive appeal to policymakers. We compute welfare change based on these measures arising from a recent reform of the child support payments system."
Correspondence: I. Preston, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, England. E-mail: i.preston@ucl.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41386 Rangel, Marta. Migrant status, race, and gender in the Brazilian labor market: the case of the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo. [Condición migratoria, raza y género en el mercado de trabajo brasileño: el caso de las regiones metropolitanas de Rio de Janeiro y São Paulo.] Notas de Población, Vol. 26, No. 67-68, Jan-Dec 1998. 247-88 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This article analyses and compares the social and employment structures of the metropolitan areas of Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo [in Brazil], on the basis of data from the 1988 national household survey (PNAD-88); it takes into account simultaneously the variables of migrant status, race and gender. These variables are assumed to be factors in unequal labour market integration."
Correspondence: M. Rangel, UN Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía, División de Población, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41387 Riphahn, Regina T. Income and employment effects of health shocks: a test case for the German welfare state. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, Aug 1999. 363-89 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"Using data from the first eleven waves of the German Socioeconomic Panel this study investigates the dynamic effects of health shocks on employment and economic well-being of older workers. A health shock trebles the probability of leaving the labor force and almost doubles the unemployment risk.... Welfare state instruments support the poorest section of the population but do not succeed in neutralizing the effects of a health shock for these groups."
Correspondence: R. T. Riphahn, University of Munich, SELAPO, Ludwigstraße 28 RG, 80539 Munich, Germany. E-mail: regina.riphahn@selapo.vwl.uni-muenchen.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41388 Sana, Mariano. Migrants, unemployment and earnings in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area. International Migration Review, Vol. 33, No. 3, Fall 1999. 621-39 pp. Staten Island, New York. In Eng.
"The unemployment rate climbed to 20 percent in the Buenos Aires metropolitan area in the mid-1990s. Some government officials blamed immigration from neighboring countries as one factor responsible for the increase. This paper fails to find evidence to support such a view. In addition, variation of earnings between the beginning and the peak of the unemployment crisis is considered. Although males of all national origin groups were worse off after the employment bubble burst, the earnings of immigrants from neighboring countries declined the most."
Correspondence: M. Sana, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41389 Schwarz, Karl. Demographic trends and the labor market: important connections demonstrated using the example of the former West German states from 1972 to 1997. [Demographische Entwicklung und Arbeitsmarkt: Wichtige Zusammenhänge, demonstriert am Beispiel der alten Bundesländer im Zeitraum 1972 bis 1997.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 23, No. 4, 1998. 495-500 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
The author examines the relationship between demographic factors such as population size, age structure, and family situation, and the potential labor force (defined as the economically active population plus the unemployed) in West Germany from 1972 to 1997. He looks separately at the situation of men and of women, and finds that a dramatic growth in both populations led to increased unemployment. For women, declining marriage rates and rising divorce rates increased economic activity, which came to include a large proportion of part-time work. The author concludes that the impact of the baby boom on the labor market was not foreseen, and that 2015 is the earliest full employment can be attained, provided immigration is lowered and Germans prove willing to work in less desirable occupations.
Correspondence: K. Schwarz, Klopstockstraße 14, 65187 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41390 Tienda, Marta; Hotz, V. Joseph; Ahituv, Avner; Bellessa, Michelle. Employment and wage prospects of black, white, and Hispanic women: evidence from the 1980s and early 1990s. OPR Working Paper, No. 99-4, Apr 1999. 46 pp. Princeton University, Office of Population Research [OPR]: Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
In this paper, the authors address several questions that are useful in understanding "the employment and wage prospects of young women in the context of the school to work transition [in the United States]. First, how do young women's human capital investment decisions differ among black, white and Hispanic young women? Second, how different are young women's family formation decisions along race and ethnic lines, and what implications do these differences have for labor force behavior? Third, are the employment returns to early investment decisions similar for education and experience? Finally, how sensitive are young women's labor force decisions to local market conditions?... The data for [the] analysis is drawn from the National Longitudinal Survey of Youth (NLSY)." Specifically for this paper, the authors use "data for women drawn from the national probability sample and the black and Hispanic oversamples for the 1979-1993 period."
Correspondence: Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41391 Topalov, Christian. A revolution in the representations of work. The emergence of a statistical category for the "active population" in the nineteenth century in France, Great Britain, and the United States. [Une révolution dans les représentations du travail: l'émergence de la catégorie statistique de "population active" au XIXe siècle en France, en Grande-Bretagne et aux Etats-Unis.] Revue Française de Sociologie, Vol. 40, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1999. 445-73, 631-5 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
"The division of the population between active and inactive, a common base for socio-professional classification varying from one country to another, is in itself too global, making the distinction almost invisible. The strange nature of this solid structure invites an investigation into the process, both long and difficult, at the end of which, late in the 19th century, activity was defined by only one criterion: its market characteristics. Although this aspect was not included in the history of censuses it does throw light on the nature and rhythms of what, without being excessive, can be called a revolution in the statistical representations of work."
Correspondence: C. Topalov, Cultures et Sociétés Urbaines, 59-61 rue Pouchet, 75849 Paris Cedex 17, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:41392 Toutain, Stéphanie. Working after age 55 in Italy. [L'activité après 55 ans en Italie.] Population, Vol. 54, No. 3, May-Jun 1999. 555-72 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Aspects of demographic aging in Italy are reviewed. The focus is on trends in employment of the population aged over 55, and the factors that lead to the low level of labor force participation among this age group.
Correspondence: S. Toutain, Université de Toulouse-Le Mirail, 5 allées Antonio Machado, 31058 Toulouse Cedex 1, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41393 United Nations. Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe [CEPAL] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: economically active population, 1980-2025. [América Latina: población económicamente activa, 1980-2025.] Boletín Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 32, No. 64, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.188. Jul 1999. 238 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
"This current Bulletin presents the estimates and projections of the economically active population, by urban and rural areas, sex and quinquennial age groups for the 20 Latin American countries, during the period 1980-2025."
Correspondence: Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía, División de Población, Casilla 179-D, Santiago, Chile. E-mail: jchackie@eclac.cl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41394 Waldfogel, Jane; Higuchi, Yoshio; Abe, Masahiro. Family leave policies and women's retention after childbirth: evidence from the United States, Britain, and Japan. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1999. 523-45 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper uses labour force survey data to examine the employment rates and employment decisions of women with young children in the United States, Britain and Japan. Our results confirm that young children have a very strong negative effect on women's employment; this effect is most pronounced in Britain. We then take advantage of panel data to investigate the effects of family leave coverage on women's job retention after childbirth. We find that family leave coverage increases the likelihood that a woman will return to her employer after childbirth in all three countries, with a particularly marked effect in Japan. This result suggests that the recent expansions in family leave coverage in the sample countries are likely to lead to increased employment of women after childbirth."
Correspondence: J. Waldfogel, Columbia University, School of Social Work, 622 West 113th Street, New York, NY 10025. E-mail: jw205@columbia.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41395 Winter-Ebmer, Rudolf; Zweimüller, Josef. Do immigrants displace young native workers: the Austrian experience. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 2, May 1999. 327-40 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper studies the effect of increased immigration in Austria on the unemployment risk of young natives.... We concentrate on unemployment entry of young male workers, who are supposed to compete most heavily with new immigrants. Our results indicate that the detrimental impact--if it exists at all--is only minor. This is irrespective of the analyzed proxy for competition: The share of foreign workers in an industry or in a region."
Correspondence: R. Winter-Ebmer, Johannes-Kepler-Universität, Institut für Volkswirtschaftslehre, Altenbergerstrasse 69, 4040 Linz-Auhof, Austria. E-mail: r.winterebmer@jk.uni-linz.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41396 Wrench, John; Rea, Andrea; Ouali, Nouria. Migrants, ethnic minorities and the labour market: integration and exclusion in Europe. ISBN 0-333-68279-3. LC 99-11215. 1999. xii, 274 pp. Macmillan Press: Basingstoke, England; St. Martin's Press: New York, New York. In Eng.
This collective work is the product of a network of researchers set up under the European Union's COST (A2) migration initiative that examined aspects of the labor market, minorities, and citizenship in 1994-1995. The papers examine issues of discrimination and exclusion in the labor market in Western Europe. Papers are as follows: Young migrants in the Belgian labour market: integration, discrimination and exclusion, by Nouria Ouali and Andrea Rea; Workers of migrant origin in Germany: forms of discrimination in the labour market and at the workplace, by Nora Räthzel; From school to the labour market in Britain: the qualitative exposure of structures of exclusion, by John Wrench, Edgar Hassan, and Tarek Qureshi; Foreigners and immigrants in the French labour market: structural inequality and discrimination, by François Vourc'h, Véronique De Rudder, and Maryse Tripier; Migrants and ethnic minorities in the Netherlands: discrimination in access to employment, by Mitzi Gras and Frank Bovenkerk; The labour market for immigrant women in Sweden: marginalised women in low-valued jobs, by Wuokko Knocke; Young people of foreign origin born in Switzerland: between invisibility and diversity, by Francesca Poglia Mileti; Seasonal work in Italy: flexibility and regularisation, by Giovanna Campani and Francesco Carchedi; Immigrants in Spain: from institutional discrimination to labour market segmentation, by Lorenzo Cachón; Refugee care in Sweden: the problems of unemployment and anti-discrimination policies, by Maritta Soininen; Migratory movements: the position, the outlook. Charting a theory and practice for trade unions, by Albert Martens; and Employers and anti-discrimination measures in Europe: good practice and bad faith, by John Wrench.
Correspondence: Macmillan Press, Houndmills, Basingstoke RG21 6XS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41397 Xiao, Lichun. Unemployment in Shanghai. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 10, No. 3, 1998. 277-91 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The unemployment rate in Shanghai has increased since the 1990s due to the reform of state-owned enterprises and the industrial reconstruction. This paper analyzes the situation of unemployment in Shanghai based on data from the 1995 China national census from a one percent population sample and other statistical population data."
Correspondence: L. Xiao, Shanghai Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Population and Social Development, Shanghai, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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