Volume 65 - Number 1 - Spring 1999

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

65:10062 Gutmann, Myron P.; Frisbie, W. Parker; Blanchard, K. Stephen. A new look at the Hispanic population of the United States in 1910. Historical Methods, Vol. 32, No. 1, Winter 1999. 5-19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this article, we describe for the first time results of a successful effort to obtain much higher quality data about the Hispanic population of the United States in 1910 than has been previously available.... Our report...is based on a new supplement to the frequently used Public Use Sample of the 1910 census.... Our goal is to present here the first serious description of the Hispanic population based on these data and to show how our characterization of the Hispanic population differs from what is already known."
This paper was originally presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: M. P. Gutmann, University of Texas, Population Research Center, 1800 Main, Austin, TX 78712-1088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

65:10063 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Total population and population of Belgian nationality as of January 1, 1998. [Population totale et belge au 1.1.1998.] Statistiques Démographiques, No. 3A, 1998. 239 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates of the total population and the population of Belgian nationality are presented for 1998. The estimates are presented by sex, age, and marital status for the country as a whole and for its regions and provinces.
For a previous estimate for 1997, see 63:40082.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10064 Ebanks, G. Edward. Contrasting population challenges: Cuba and the Dominican Republic in the next millennium. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 98-9, ISBN 0-7714-2154-0. Aug 1998. 20 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"In this paper, the current demographic situation in Cuba and the Dominican Republic will be highlighted. The goal is to see how they have arrived at the present situation. As they enter the twenty first century the focus is on where they are headed. The demographic situation is considered with respect to...sustainable development and how policies have brought them where they are and where they are likely heading."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10065 Ebanks, G. Edward. Neo-Malthusian dilemma: Latin America and the Caribbean. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 98-8, ISBN 0-7714-2153-2. Aug 1998. 12 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"This paper examines the neo-Malthusian dilemma with respect to the current situation in Latin America and the Caribbean.... This dilemma comes from a growing population and the prospect of providing a sustainable development and improvement in the quality of life for this growing population." The author "examines the size of the population and its rate of growth and the contributing factors to these two, namely fertility, mortality and international migration."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10066 Kucera, Milan; Simek, Miroslav. Population development in the Czech Republic in 1997. [Vývoj obyvatelstva Ceské Republiky v roce 1997.] Demografie, Vol. 40, No. 4, 1998. 233-46 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"In 1997 demographic processes [in the Czech Republic] ran in accordance with recent years' tendencies, i.e. the trend of postponing marriages as well as [fertility] continued.... [Divorce] remained on the level of previous years. [The decline in] the number of children born has temporarily stopped but the...total fertility rate has still declined to 1.17 children per female. Furthermore, the number of abortions has declined.... Mortality remained on the previous year's level.... [The] number of the Republic's inhabitants has diminished...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10067 Lunn, David J.; Simpson, Stephen N.; Diamond, Ian; Middleton, Liz. The accuracy of age-specific population estimates for small areas in Britain. Population Studies, Vol. 52, No. 3, Nov 1998. 327-44 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper presents a multi-level statistical analysis of the accuracy of age-specific population estimates made for British local authorities in 1991. The aim of this work is to identify the factors that influence accuracy, and to investigate how these influences interact. Our analyses show that the following area characteristics are key factors: true population size; intercensal population change; and percentages of unemployed residents, armed forces residents, and students. In addition, we find that the overall type of method used to calculate estimates is important, and that its effect varies both with area characteristics and with age-group."
Correspondence: D. J. Lunn, Imperial College School of Medicine at St. Mary's, Department of Epidemiology and Public Health, London W2 1PG, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10068 Malaysia. Jabatan Perangkaan (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia). Revised intercensal mid-year population estimates: Malaysia 1981-1990. [Kajian semula anggaran penduduk pertengahan tahun antara banci: Malaysia 1981-1990.] LC 98-949001. Apr 1997. vi, 54 pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng; Mal.
Revised population estimates are presented for Malaysia for the years between 1981 and 1990. Data are from the 1980 and 1991 censuses. The estimates are provided by age, sex, and ethnic group for the whole country and its regions.
Correspondence: Department of Statistics Malaysia, Jalan Cenderasari, 50514 Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. E-mail: jpmeto@po.jaring.my. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

65:10069 Monnier, Alain. The current demographic situation: Europe and the developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture démographique: l'Europe et les pays développés d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 53, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1998. 995-1,023 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is the latest in a series of annual reviews of current demographic trends in the developed countries of the world. There are sections on population trends, fertility, marriage and divorce, abortion, and mortality.
For a previous review in this series, see 64:20072.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10070 Pelletier, Gilles. The population of Quebec by community service region (CLSC), community health department (DSC), and social health region (RSS) for the period 1981-2016. [La population du Québec par territoire de CLSC, de DSC et de RSS, pour la période 1981 à 2016.] Collection Données Statistiques et Indicateurs, No. 30, ISBN 2-550-25388-4. LC 96-189536. Feb 1996. vii, [68], 224 pp. Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux, Direction Générale de la Planification et de l'Evaluation: Quebec, Canada. In Fre.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the province of Quebec and for its various regions and departments as defined by the Ministry of Health and Social Services for the period 1981-2016. They are presented by sex and five-year age group and are based primarily on data from the Canadian census.
Correspondence: Ministère de la Santé et des Services Sociaux, Direction Générale de la Planification et de l'Evaluation, 1075 Chemin Ste. Foy, Quebec G1S 2M1, Canada. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

65:10071 Prioux, France. Recent demographic trends. [L'évolution démographique récente.] Population, Vol. 53, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1998. 755-83 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in France are presented and discussed. Topics covered include population dynamics and immigration, fertility and maternal age, nuptiality, mortality by cause, life expectancy, and age distribution. Some comparisons are made with Europe as a whole.
Correspondence: F. Prioux, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: prioux@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10072 Sommer, Bettina; Voit, Hermann. Population development, 1997. [Bevölkerungsentwicklung 1997.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1998. 971-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Demographic trends for 1997 in Germany are presented, with an emphasis on international migration. The authors first discuss the rate of natural increase; then they examine internal and international migration. Finally, they calculate net population change for Germany as a whole and for the states, and briefly consider changes in the population's age structure.
Correspondence: B. Sommer, Statistisches Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11, 6200 Wiesbaden 1, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:10073 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Population profile of the United States: 1997. Current Population Reports, Series P-23: Special Studies, No. 194, Sep 1998. 60 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report "brings together under one cover a wide range of sample survey and census data on demographic, social, economic, and housing trends for the [United States] as a whole. The report includes data collected from 1920 to 1996 and reflects the most recent information available on each topic as of 1997. In many cases, the data are shown by race and Hispanic origin (of any race)." Tables and charts provide information on national and state population trends, metropolitan and nonmetropolitan trends, geographical mobility, education, households and families, marital status and living arrangements, fertility, disabilities, income, children, the aged, the foreign-born, and home ownership.
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

65:10074 Andreev, Evgeni; Scherbov, Sergei; Willekens, Frans. Population of Russia: what can we expect in the future? World Development, Vol. 26, No. 11, Nov 1998. 1,939-55 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The paper presents the first ever demographic scenarios for the regions of Russia. Scenarios are developed for 49 oblasts (regions), six krays (territories), 21 republics, one autonomous oblast and two national cities, Moscow and St. Petersburg. Five scenarios are considered: two optimistic...two medium...and one pessimistic.... The scenarios are combinations of three mortality...two fertility...and three migration scenarios. Results and a discussion of the differences between the scenarios are presented for 11 economic-geographic regions. The main findings of the scenario analysis are: (a) the population decline, which started in 1992, continues in all scenarios; (b) aging of the population reaches unprecedented levels; and (c) the spatial redistribution of the population out of Siberia to the European part of Russia, in particular the southern regions (North Caucasus and the Volga Region), continues."
Correspondence: E. Andreev, Goskomstat of Russia, Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, Department of Demography, 51 Malaya Gruzinskaya Street, 123557 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:10075 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Population estimates for departments, 1990-2005. [Estimaciones de la población por departamento, período 1990-2005.] Serie Análisis Demográfico, No. 8, ISBN 950-896-037-X. LC 97-178102. 1996. 90 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Argentina by province and district for the period 1990-2005.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Centro Estadístico de Servicios, Julio A. Roca, 615 P.B., 1067 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10076 Attanayake, Chandra. World demographic scenario of the 21st century, with special reference to Sri Lanka. Sri Lanka Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, Feb 1998. 85-105, 125 pp. Colombo, Sri Lanka. In Eng.
"The objective of this paper...is to highlight the World Demographic Scenario of the 21st century, with special reference to Sri Lanka." Aspects considered include world population trends, spatial distribution, migration, fertility, age distribution, health, the present demographic situation in Sri Lanka, and the country's National Action Plan for Reproductive Health.
Correspondence: C. Attanayake, University of Sri Jayawardenepura, Department of Geography, Gangodawila, Nugegoda, Sri Lanka. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10077 Chin, J.; Mann, J. Global surveillance and forecasting of AIDS. Bulletin of the World Health Organization/Bulletin de l'Organisation Mondiale de la Santé, Vol. 76, No. 5, 1998. 429-35 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The short-term forecasting of future AIDS cases has been attempted by statistical extrapolations of the observed curve of reported AIDS cases. In areas where such reporting is very incomplete or has only recently started, extrapolation is not possible and an epidemiologically-based forecasting model has been developed to estimate the annual number of AIDS cases which may have occurred and to project the annual number and distribution of AIDS cases for up to ten years. This model, which relies on the current understanding of the epidemiology and natural history of HIV infections and on the available HIV serologic survey data, is used to provide estimates and sort-term projections of AIDS cases for the USA, Europe, Africa and the world."
Correspondence: J. Chin, World Health Organization, Office of Research, Global Programme on AIDS, Surveillance, Forecasting and Impact Assessment Unit, 1211 Geneva 27, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10078 Denton, Frank T.; Feaver, Christine H.; Spencer, Byron G. The future population of Canada, its age distribution and dependency relations. Canadian Journal on Aging/La Revue Canadienne du Vieillissement, Vol. 17, No. 1, Spring 1998. 83-109 pp. Guelph, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper makes available a number of projections of the age-sex distribution of the Canadian population for the 45-year period 1996 to 2041 and comparisons with the previous 45-year period. The projections combine assumptions relating to fertility, mortality, and migration.... It is concluded that substantial aging of the Canadian population appears virtually certain but, based on the demographic evidence, the `dependency burden' is likely to remain below the peak levels attained during the baby boom."
Correspondence: B. G. Spencer, McMaster University, QSEP Research Institute, Kenneth Taylor Hall, Room 426, Hamilton, Ontario L8S 4M4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10079 India. Office of the Registrar General (New Delhi, India). Census of India, 1991. Population projections for India and states, 1996-2016. 1997. [xi], 343 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This report presents the population projections for India and for its constituent states up to the year 2016, based on data from the 1991 census, prepared by the Technical Group on Population Projections. The projections are given by age and sex for individual years from 1996 to 2016. Separate projections are included on the urban population.
Correspondence: Office of the Registrar General, Ministry of Home Affairs, 2/A Mansingh Road, New Delhi 110 011, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10080 Lutz, Wolfgang; Scherbov, Sergei. Probabilistic population projections for Germany. [Probabilistische Bevölkerungsprognosen für Deutschland.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 23, No. 2, 1998. 83-109 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The authors discuss a probabilistic approach to projecting population trends in Germany. "This approach not only has the advantage of supplying additional information regarding the probability of alternative trends, it also allows for a synopsis of numerous projections of various German institutes using a common distribution.... The results of these probabilistic forecasts do not differ greatly from those of other institutes, specifically with regard to the most probable path of development, yet they also supply quantitative information concerning the areas of uncertainty that affect the development of the various demographic variables."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schloßplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: info@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10081 Lutz, Wolfgang; Sanderson, Warren; Scherbov, Sergei; Goujon, Anne. World population scenarios for the 21st century. In: The future population of the world: what can we assume today?, edited by Wolfgang Lutz. Rev. ed. 1996. 361-96 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria; Earthscan Publications: London, England. In Eng.
This chapter presents a synthesis of the expert views on likely future global trends in fertility, mortality, and migration expressed elsewhere in this book, together with two alternative scenarios for global population in the twenty-first century: "one set in which the fertility, mortality, and migration components are assumed to be deterministic, independent of one another, and not subjected to any feedbacks; and another set in which certain consistent `stories' are defined and the components interact and react to certain outcomes of the projections such as population growth and aging."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10082 Namibia. Central Statistics Office (Windhoek, Namibia). Provisional population projections, 1991-2011, Namibia. Jul 1994. [134] pp. Windhoek, Namibia. In Eng.
Population projections are presented for Namibia for the period 1991-2011. High, medium, and low variants are included, and the projections are provisional, pending further analysis of data from the 1991 census. They are presented by age and sex.
Correspondence: Central Statistics Office, National Planning Commission, Private Bag 13356, Windhoek, Namibia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10083 Paraguay. Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos (Asunción, Paraguay). Paraguay: population projections for each calendar year by department and district, 1995-2000. [Paraguay: proyección de la población por año calendario, segun departamento y distrito periodo 1995-2000.] 1997. 19 pp. Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Projections are presented for the total population of Paraguay, and for each department and district, up to the year 2000.
Correspondence: Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Naciones Unidas y Zenteno, Zona Norte, Fernando de la Mora, Asunción, Paraguay. E-mail: dgec@sce.cnc.una.py. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10084 Ulrich, Ralf E. Gray or colorful? Immigration and Germany's population in 2030. [Grau oder bunt? Zuwanderungen und Deutschlands Bevölkerung im Jahre 2030.] In: Migration und Gesundheit: Zustandsbeschreibung und Zukunftsmodelle, edited by Matthias David, Theda Borde, and Heribert Kentenich. ISBN 3-929106-56-6. 1998. 17-32 pp. Mabuse: Frankfurt am Main, Germany. In Ger.
After describing several waves of immigration to Germany since 1945, the author focuses on future population trends. He calculates three scenarios based on differing assumptions about fertility, mortality, and especially immigration. A fourth scenario replicates the assumptions of the middle scenario but assumes a doubling of naturalizations. All four scenarios project a significant increase in Germany's foreign population. Demographic aging will also take place.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:10085 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population projections 1970-2050. [América Latina: proyecciones de población 1970-2050.] Boletín Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 31, No. 62, Pub. Order No. LC/DEM/G.180. Jul 1998. 161 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population projections are presented for Latin America as a whole and for 20 individual countries in Latin America and the Caribbean for the period 1970-2050 by age and sex. Selected data on fertility, mortality, natural increase, migration, and population growth are also provided.
Correspondence: Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía, Casilla 179-D, Santiago, Chile. E-mail: jchackie@eclac.cl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

65:10086 Smith, Amy S.; Sink, Larry. A more diversified America: state and local population changes, 1990-1997. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 79, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1998. 26-37 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The authors review U.S. state and county population estimates by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin for the period 1990-1997. Tables and maps provide data on states with largest total populations; metropolitan counties having population increases to over 100,000; county estimates of total, Asian and Pacific Islander, and Hispanic population; and increases in the Hispanic population in metropolitan counties.
Correspondence: A. S. Smith, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1999, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.