Volume 64 - Number 3 - Fall 1998

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

64:30097 Stpiczynski, Tadeusz. The population of the Polish lands during World War I and in the Polish state from 1919 to 1939. [Ludnosc ziem polskich podczas pierwszej wojny swiatowej oraz panstwa polskiego w latach 1919-1939.] Przeszlosc Demograficzna Polski: Materialy i Studia, No. 20, 1997. 73-93 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
"Estimated data show that during the first world war the population of Polish lands decreased by about 4 million. After the regaining of independence, this number grew from 26.3 million in 1918 to 34.8 million in 1939. The 1931 survey demonstrated that as little as 27% of the population lived in towns while the percentage of national minorities totaled 30. The period under examination, with the exception of the first five years, witnessed a steady tendency towards a declining level of births--by 26% and deaths--by 22% while the coefficient of the natural birth rate fell by 30%. The general level of births among the village population was 50% larger than in the towns, and the level of deaths--by 30%. A characteristic feature was permanent and seasonal agrarian migration."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

64:30098 Bolivia. Instituto Nacional de Estadística (La Paz, Bolivia). Bolivia: population estimates and projections, 1950-2050. Summary version. [Bolivia: estimaciones y proyecciones de la población 1950-2050. Versión resumida.] Dec 1994. 27 pp. La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Bolivia up to the year 2050. The data are presented by sex and by five-year age group.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Plaza Mario Guzmán No. 1, Casilla No. 6129, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30099 Carvalho, José A. M. de. Demographic dynamics in Brazil: recent trends and perspectives. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 1, 1997-1998. 5-23 pp. São Paulo, Brazil. In Eng.
"The evolution of the Brazilian population size, its growth rate and relative age structure between 1940 and 1991 as well as its expected trajectory until 2020 are presented in this paper. After briefly considering the quasi-stability of the Brazilian population in the past, the role of fast fertility decline is emphasised in the current changing age structure."
Correspondence: J. A. Magno de Carvalho, Federal University of Minas Gerais, CEDEPLAR, Rua Curitiba 832, Belo Horizonte, Minas Gerais, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30100 Dureau, Françoise; Florez, Carmen E. Colombian demographic trends: from the national to the local. [Dinámicas demográficas colombianas: de lo nacional a lo local.] Documento CEDE, No. 96-01, LC 97-126270. Feb 1996. 50 pp. Universidad de los Andes, Centro de Estudios sobre Desarrollo Económico [CEDE]: Bogotá, Colombia. In Spa.
The authors examine trends in population growth and its components in Colombia. The modalities of the country's demographic transition are first outlined. Urbanization and migration are then analyzed. Population growth in and around Bogotá is discussed, with a focus on characteristics of migration to the city. Residential dynamics of Soacha, a region of Bogotá, are described.
Correspondence: Universidad de los Andes, Centro de Estudios Sobre Desarrollo Económico, Apartado Aereo 4976, Bogotá, Colombia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

64:30101 Miettinen, Anneli. Population data on Finland 1900-1997. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 34, 1997. 173-80 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Tabular data are presented on population dynamics in Finland from 1900 to 1997. Information is included on resident population, age distribution, age-specific fertility rate, reproduction rate, maternal age, legitimate and illegitimate live births, abortions, marriages, consensual unions, divorces, family characteristics, deaths, life expectancy, international and internal migration, the labor force, and unemployment.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30102 Paraguay. Dirección General de Estadística y Censos (Asunción, Paraguay). Paraguay: estimates and projections of the national and departmental population by urban and rural areas, sex, and age group. 1990-2025 for the whole country and 1990-2000 for departments. [Paraguay: estimación y proyección de la población nacional y por departamento, segun area urbana-rural, sexo y grupos de edad. Periodo 1990-2025 (nacional). Periodo 1990-2000 (departamental).] 1996. 61 pp. Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Paraguay for the whole country up to 2025 and for departments up to 2000. They are presented by rural and urban area, age, and sex.
Correspondence: Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Luis A. Herrera 1010, c/EE.UU., C.C. 1118, Asunción, Paraguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30103 Paraguay. Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos (Asunción, Paraguay). Paraguay: population estimates and projections by district and by age and sex for the period 1990-2000. [Paraguay: estimación y proyección de la población por distrito segun sexo y grupos de edad, periodo 1990-2000.] May 1995. 107 pp. Asunción, Paraguay. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Paraguay for the period 1990-2000 by district, age, and sex.
Correspondence: Dirección General de Estadística, Encuestas y Censos, Luis Alberto de Herrera 1010, Asunción, Paraguay. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30104 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática (Lima, Peru). Peru: total population by urban and rural area, by department, province, and district. [Peru: población total por area urbana y rural, segun departamentos, provincias y distritos.] Pub. Order No. 820-95-SG-OEPI. Oct 1995. 162 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates are presented for Peru by department, district, and province for 1995, together with projections for the year 2000. The data are provided separately for the rural and urban populations.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática, Avenida 28 de Julio No. 1056, Lima 1, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30105 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de Estatística [INE] (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of the resident population by age and sex as at December 31, 1981 to 1990 and from June 30, 1982 to 1990, by region and district. [Estimativas de população residente segundo o sexo em 31.XII de 1981 a 1990 e 30.VI de 1982 a 1990, por NUTS III e concelhos.] Série Estimativas Provisórias, No. 22, ISBN 972-673-139-9. 1996. 246, [9] pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates are presented for Portugal for the 1980s using data from the 1981 and 1991 censuses. The estimates are presented by sex for regions (NUTS) and districts (concelhos).
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estatística, Avenida António José de Almeida 2, 1000 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30106 Razzaque, Abdur; Nahar, Lutfun; Sarder, Abdul M.; van Ginneken, Jeroen K.; Shaikh, M. A. Kashem. Demographic Surveillance System--Matlab. Volume twenty nine: 1996 socio-economic census. ICDDR, B Scientific Report, No. 83, ISBN 984-551-143-0. Mar 1998. ix, 72 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [ICDDR, B]: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This report presents results on the 1996 socioeconomic census and comparison of selected socio-demographic variables with two other censuses (1982 and 1974) in the MCH-FP and Comparison areas of Matlab [Bangladesh]. The comparison shows that the population in both the MCH-FP and the Comparison areas has increased during the past 20 years, but the increase has slowed down in recent years.... This decline in growth has affected the age structure: the proportion of young population has declined."
Correspondence: International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30107 Williamson, P.; Birkin, M.; Rees, P. H. The estimation of population microdata by using data from small area statistics and samples of anonymised records. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 30, No. 5, May 1998. 785-816 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Traditionally, estimates of the number of people in small areas (the smallest geographical units for which data are available) have been disaggregated only by age and sex. More recently, much research effort has been directed towards developing some form of enhanced small-area population estimation, in which the population in a small area is disaggregated not only by age and sex, but also by a wide range of additional economic and social characteristics. Solutions to this problem currently include account-based demographic models, often used by local authorities."
Correspondence: P. Williamson, University of Liverpool, Department of Geography, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. E-mail: william@liv.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

64:30108 Alders, M.; de Beer, J. Probability distribution of population forecasts. [Kansverdeling van de bevolkingsprognose.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 4, Apr 1998. 8-11 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"On the basis of assumptions on the probability distribution of future fertility, life expectancy and net migration, the probability distribution of the future size and age structure of the population [of the Netherlands] can be calculated.... The calculations are based on three main assumptions.... On the basis of these assumptions it can be calculated that the probability of the population size in 2010 lying between 15.8 million and 17.2 million is 90%."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30109 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population projection by municipalities, 1998-2030. [Väestöennuste kunnittain 1998-2030/Befolkningsprognos kommunvis 1998-2030.] Väestö/Befolkning/Population, No. 6, ISBN 951-727-432-7. 1998. 104 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin. with sum. in Eng; Swe.
"This publication contains the results of Statistics Finland's 1998 population projection by municipality until the year 2030. The publication provides information about the development of the total number of population in the whole country, regions and municipalities and data on the whole country and regions by age group.... The previous Population Projection was published in 1995...."
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, P.O. Box 3B, 00022 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30110 George, M. V.; Raby, Ronald. Current approaches for estimating and projecting sub-national populations in Canada. In: International Population Conference/Congrès International de la Population: Beijing, 1997, Volume 3. 1997. 1,195-215 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
The authors discuss various methods of estimating and projecting national and subnational populations in Canada. Sections are included on the evolution of the current estimation methodology; data sources and evaluation; population projections by age and sex; and use of population estimates and projections.
Correspondence: M. V. George, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30111 Lutz, Wolfgang; Scherbov, Sergei. An expert-based framework for probabilistic national population projections: the example of Austria. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 14, No. 1, Mar 1998. 1-17 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The traditional way of dealing with uncertainty in population projections through high and low variants is unsatisfactory because it remains unclear what range of uncertainty these alternative paths are assumed to cover. But probabilistic approaches have not yet found their way into official population projections. This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international projections: (1) it provides significant advantages to current practice, (2) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity, (3) it is scientifically sound, and (4) it is applicable to all countries."
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: lutz@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30112 Ramachandran, K. V. Sub-national population projections for planning and policy formulation: experience of India. In: International Population Conference/Congrès International de la Population: Beijing, 1997, Volume 3. 1997. 1,217-44 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper presents an overview of the experience of India in making national, state and local area population projections, reviews the methodologies adopted and presents an evaluation of the results. Suggestions have been made in the paper for improving the methodology and assumptions in these projections."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30113 Shimizu, Masato. Population projections by prefecture: 1995-2025. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 53, No. 2, 1997. 50-73 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented for Japan by prefecture up to the year 2025.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30114 Simek, Miroslav. Perspectives of the population development of the Czech Republic by 2020. [Perspektivy populacního vývoje Ceské republiky do roku 2020.] Statistika, No. 5, 1998. 205-14 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"The significant changes in the population development of the 1990s reflected into the new demographic projection of the Czech Statistical Office. The document was made by a component method in three variants differing in scenarios of the expected trend in fertility, mortality and migration. The horizon of the projection was the year 2020. The results confirmed development tendencies of the previous forecasts and showed that the Czech Republic was likely to diminish in the number of population and certainly to grow old."
Correspondence: M. Simek, Ceský Statistický Úrad, Prague, Czech Republic. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

64:30115 Smith, Stanley K. Further thoughts on simplicity and complexity in population projection models. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 13, No. 4, Dec 1997. 557-65 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article is a review of--and response to--a special issue of Mathematical Population Studies that focused on the relative performance of simpler vs. more complex population projection models. I do not attempt to summarize or comment on each of the articles in the special issue, but rather present an additional perspective on several points: definitions of simplicity and complexity, empirical evidence regarding population forecast accuracy, the costs and benefits of disaggregation, the potential benefits of combining forecasts, criteria for evaluating projection models, and issues of economic efficiency in the production of population projections."
For the articles referred to, see 62:10075, 62:10084-5, 62:10087, and 62:10091-3.
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611-7145. E-mail: sksmith@ufl.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30116 Soliani, Lamberto; Manfredini, Matteo. Growth, employment and "necessary" immigration: a discussion using demographic data for Emilia-Romagna. [Sviluppo, occupazione e immigrazione "necessaria": dibattito con i dati demografici dell'Emilia-Romagna.] Polis, Vol. 11, No. 2, Aug 1997. 255-76, 337 pp. Bologna, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng.
"In Emilia-Romagna [Italy] and in Central and Northern Italy the reduction in the number of young people, caused by the falling birth rate, has started to involve individuals in working and reproductive age groups.... With demographic data for the Emilia-Romagna region six scenarios are constructed concerning the effects of an increase in fertility rates (to levels of equilibrium) and workforce participation (to European levels) and the demographic differences between younger and older generations on the job market. Estimates are calculated concerning the size of immigration flows deemed necessary for immediate production needs and for re-balancing the population's age structure in the future."
Correspondence: L. Soliani, University of Parma, Via Università 12, 43100 Parma, Italy. Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

64:30117 Indonesia. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jakarta, Indonesia); Indonesia. State Ministry of Population/National Family Planning Coordinating Board (Jakarta, Indonesia); Indonesia. Ministry of Health. Institute for Health Research and Development (Jakarta, Indonesia); Macro International. Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS] (Calverton, Maryland). Trends in demographic, family planning, and health indicators in Indonesia, 1961-1994. May 1996. v, 39 pp. Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Calverton, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report highlights important trends in key population, family planning, and health indicators in Indonesia over the past two decades. It was prepared with the primary objective of providing information needed by policymakers and program administrators to asses the current situation and to design more effective population, family planning, and maternal and child health programs. In particular, the report addresses the prevailing demographic situation and describes trends in fertility, family planning, maternal and child health, and infant and child mortality."
Correspondence: Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 11785 Beltsville Drive, Calverton, MD 20705-3119. E-mail: reports@macroint.com. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30118 Kamarás, Ferenc. Changes in birth and fertility over the past 125 years. [A születési mozgalom és a termékenység az elmúlt 125 évben.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 74, No. 8-9, Aug-Sep 1996. 662-79 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
"The author reviews the characteristic features of the 125 year history of changes in Hungarian indicators of births and fertility. In the first part of the study demographic transition is analysed from the end of [the nineteenth century] up to World War II. Then the fluctuation of fertility over the 25-30 years after the War (up to the late 1970s) as well as the fertility in the last 15 years are...dealt with. Finally the author makes the reader acquainted with the correlations of family planning and fertility as well as with...international data on fertility."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30119 Klinger, András. Population development in Hungary. [Magyarország Népességfejlodése.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 74, No. 8-9, Aug-Sep 1996. 629-50 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews demographic trends in Hungary over the past 100 years. Aspects considered include population growth, sex ratio, age distribution, marital status, education, labor force, and occupations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30120 Martine, George; Camargo, Líscio. Growth and distribution of the Brazilian population: recent trends. Brazilian Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 1, 1997-1998. 59-83 pp. São Paulo, Brazil. In Eng.
"The object of this paper is to summarise the leading demographic tendencies of the past decades [in Brazil], focusing mainly on the 1970-80 period.... This paper is divided into two parts: the analysis [of] population growth and of redistribution patterns. This is followed by a reflection on the implications [of] these trends for population policy."
Correspondence: G. Martine, United Nations Population Fund, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30121 Münz, Rainer; Ulrich, Ralf. Population growth and population policy. [Bevölkerungswachstum und Bevölkerungspolitik.] In: Grundprobleme der Entwicklungsregionen: der Süden an der Schwelle zum 21. Jahrhundert, edited by Peter J. Opitz. No. 1997, ISBN 3-406-42030-3. 1997. 119-34 pp. C. H. Beck: Munich, Germany. In Ger.
After giving an overview of global population growth and the demographic processes underlying it, the authors summarize the population and family planning programs necessary to meet the challenges of the present and the future.
Correspondence: R. Münz, Humboldt-University, Department of Social Sciences, 10099 Berlin, Germany. E-mail: rainer.muenz@sowi.hu-berlin.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:30122 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Voorburg, Netherlands). Demographic figures by province, 1992-1997. [Demografische cijfers per provincie, 1992-1997.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 4, Apr 1998. 19-31 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This article contains tabular data on population trends in the Netherlands by province for the period 1992-1997. Information is included on population and population growth, nuptiality, fertility, mortality, changes of residence, and internal and international migration.
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1998, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.