Volume 64 - Number 2 - Summer 1998

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations and Natural Resources

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

64:20624 Crettez, Bertrand; Michel, Philippe; Vidal, Jean-Pierre. Time preference and capital mobility in an OLG model with land. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 11, No. 1, Feb 1998. 149-58 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper examines the pattern of capital mobility in a two-country overlapping generations world in which production uses three inputs: capital, labor and land. The steady state welfare consequences of opening countries to financial capital or labor mobility are then compared. In particular, it is shown that capital mobility does not equalize standards of living across countries. To achieve this goal, one has to rely on labor mobility."
Correspondence: B. Crettez, University of Paris I, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, U. R. A., D0924, 12 place du Panthéon, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20625 McNicoll, Geoffrey. Population and poverty: a review and restatement. Population Council Policy Research Division Working Paper, No. 105, 1997. 73 pp. Population Council, Policy Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"In this review I shall sketch enough of the details of the population-poverty relationship to make clear why it is not amenable to a one-sentence summary, but with no ambition of presenting a full-fledged account of the subject. My aim, rather, is to highlight the features that should plausibly enter a policy-relevant restatement of the relationship.... The main part of the review explores macro- and local-level aspects of the relationship."
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20626 Szreter, Simon. Economic growth, disruption, deprivation, disease, and death: on the importance of the politics of public health for development. Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 4, Dec 1997. 693-728, 929, 931 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This essay argues that, contrary to current opinion in the social and policy sciences, the relationship between rapid economic growth and health is a fundamentally problematic one. Fast economic growth entails environmental, ideological, social, administrative, and, above all, political disruption. If there is no successful political and administrative response to these challenges, then the `four Ds' of disruption, deprivation, disease, and death may all ensue. The historical case of nineteenth-century Britain is examined in detail to demonstrate its consistency with this analysis and to show that the politics of public health in Britain's industrial cities was the vital factor transforming economic growth and the four Ds into health-enhancing economic and social development. The essay concludes that the new concepts related to `social capital' may provide a helpful perspective with which to understand the complexities of economic growth, the politics of public health, and `development'."
Correspondence: S. Szreter, University of Cambridge, St. John's College, Cambridge CB2 1TP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

64:20627 Sirageldin, Ismail; Al-Rahmani, Eqbal. Population and development transformations in the Arab world. Research in Human Capital and Development, Vol. 9, ISBN 1-55938-927-3. 1996. xii, 241 pp. JAI Press: Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
This volume examines the economic, demographic, and sociopolitical changes necessary for the countries of the Arab world to achieve satisfactory levels of socioeconomic development. Part I consists of an overview paper that links the issues of population, the environment, and development in the region. "Its main theme is that although the countries of the region seem to be different in some economic indicators such as income per capita, they all face some basic development transformations. The completion of these transformations should form the basis for a sustainable development strategy in the Arab region." Part II contains four papers that examine some critical transformations essential to the development process in the region. Part III has two papers on the labor market, and Part IV contains two contributions on the ethical dimensions of development.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: JAI Press, 55 Old Post Road No. 2, P.O. Box 1678, Greenwich, CT 06836-1678. Location: Princeton University Library (IR).

64:20628 Sirageldin, Ismail; Wouters, Annemarie. The demography of sustainable agriculture: the case of Egypt. In: Population and development transformations in the Arab world, edited by Ismail Sirageldin and Eqbal Al-Rahmani. 1996. 31-48 pp. JAI Press: Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper attempts to shed light on the question of whether current policies and trends in Egyptian population dynamics and agricultural development represent a stable and sustainable system of economic growth.... Our basic proposition is that to sustain the agricultural transformation necessary for economic growth, a major structural transformation in the demographic behavior of the rural and urban populations must also take place. The population transformation includes changes in its natural rate of increase, spatial distribution, skill formation, and occupational mobility. In this application, we focus on that component of sustainability that deals with intergenerational equity (i.e., ensuring economic growth for future generations), rather than on issues of intra-generational efficiency (i.e., perfecting how economies work). That is, can intergenerational equity be achieved in countries where not only are there imperfect market conditions for agricultural development, but also sometimes unstable population dynamics?"
Correspondence: I. Sirageldin, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218. Location: Princeton University Library (IR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

64:20629 Chand, Sheetal K.; Jaeger, Albert. Aging populations and public pension schemes. IMF Occasional Paper, No. 147, ISBN 1-55775-620-1. LC 96-47997. Dec 1996. v, 43 pp. International Monetary Fund: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This paper discusses the challenges posed by aging populations. The focus is on the fiscal sustainability of public pension schemes in industrial countries. The authors confirm that serious pressures will be placed on most industrial economies and that, given the long lead times involved, major actions will be required now to reform the financial position of pension funds. Particular attention is given to unfunded public pension liabilities. "The assessments show that a combination of parametric reductions in benefits, such as extending the retirement age and modifying indexation arrangements, would in most countries suffice to contain potentially adverse fiscal developments. An important implication is that if such reforms are combined with the implementation of a sustainable contribution rate (which the benefit-reducing reforms would bring closer to the actual contribution rate), the reformed public pension systems would be able to cope with the aging problem."
Correspondence: International Monetary Fund, 700 19th Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20431. E-mail: publications@imf.org. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

64:20630 Clark, Robert L.; Ogawa, Naohiro. Public attitudes and concerns about population ageing in Japan. Ageing and Society, Vol. 16, No. 4, Jul 1996. 443-65 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"This paper examines survey responses by Japanese men and women regarding their attitudes toward the ageing of their country's population, concerns about the impact of anticipated demographic changes on their economic well-being in retirement, and preferences among alternative policy options for changes in the Japanese social security programme.... Respondents in a national survey on the ageing society indicate that they are worried about their economic well-being in retirement, are concerned about the ability of social security to provide an adequate retirement income, and are unsure whether labour market opportunities will enable them to continue to work at older ages."
Correspondence: R. L. Clark, North Carolina State University, College of Management, Box 7229, Raleigh, NC 27695. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

64:20631 Prokofieva, Lidia; Terskikh, Lolita. Standards of living and family structure in a period of social transformation: Russia in the 1990s. [Niveau de vie et structure de la famille en période de transformation sociale: la Russie des années 1990.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1997. 1,234-46 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors examine how the dramatic socioeconomic changes that occurred in Russia over the course of the 1990s have affected the standard of living of families and family characteristics. The impact of regional differences on these variables is noted, particularly as the economies of different regions of the country are so varied. The authors note that families living in areas with businesses and industries involved in extracting the country's natural resources are relatively prosperous. On the other hand, families in areas heavily dependent on agriculture, light industry, or heavy industry are more likely to have suffered economically.
Correspondence: L. Prokofieva, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Socioeconomic Problems of Population, Leninsky Pr. 14, 117901 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20632 Toutain, Stéphanie. Aging and age of retirement. [Vieillissement et âge de la retraite.] Genus, Vol. 53, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1997. 37-60 pp. Rome, Italy. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ita.
"In accordance with demographic developments, the age of retirement should increase as a result of [the] ageing of the population.... This article proposes to examine the relevance of this diagnosis as well as its implications [for France]. However as population ageing seems to go hand in hand with a decrease in the proposed retirement age, factors likely to explain this phenomenon are highlighted. Two analyses are proposed: one based on labour demand and income/leisure options and choices, and another on labour supply highlighting the untimely exclusion of older workers from the job market, especially marked in developed countries."
Correspondence: S. Toutain, 14 rue de la Treille, 95210 Saint Gratien, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

64:20633 Arene, C. J. Population pressure, agricultural intensification and the sustainability of cropping systems in Anambra State of Nigeria. Rivista di Agricoltura Subtropicale e Tropicale, Vol. 90, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1996. 75-84 pp. Florence, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita.
"This study analysed the impact of population pressure and agricultural intensification, among other factors, on the sustainability of cassava- and yam-based cropping systems in Anambra Sate of Nigeria. It was found that productivity was low for both systems due to the impact of cropping density, population pressure, and agricultural intensification on land."
Correspondence: C. J. Arene, University of Nigeria, Department of Agricultural Economics, Nsukka, Nigeria. Location: University of Minnesota Library, Minneapolis, MN.

64:20634 Cramer, James C. Population growth and air quality in California. Demography, Vol. 35, No. 1, Feb 1998. 45-56 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"I examine the impact of [population] growth specifically on air quality in California.... Using data for 56 counties, I analyze the contribution of population growth to trends in atmospheric emissions of five regulated pollutants from 1980 to 1990, controlling for trends in per capita income and regulatory efforts.... I also explore whether the trend in number of households predicts better than the trend in number of persons, and whether the impact of population growth depends upon the age structure or source of growth (immigration or domestic increase). Generally, these alternative specifications of population do not improve the models of atmospheric emissions." Data are from the California Air Resources Board.
Correspondence: J. C. Cramer, University of California, Department of Sociology, One Shields Avenue, Davis, CA 95616. E-mail: JCRAMER@UCDAVIS.EDU. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20635 Johnson, D. Gale. On the resurgent population and food debate. Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 41, No. 1, Mar 1997. 1-17 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Since Malthus wrote his famous Essay on Population, the world has witnessed great improvements in numerous measures of well-being--life expectancy, infant mortality, incidence of famines and plagues, per capita food consumption as well as real per capita incomes. These improvements have come about during rapid population growth in both industrial and developing countries. Food demand and supply projections suggest that growth of supply will fully meet growth of consumption while grain prices continue to decline. While China may increase grain imports early next century, Central and Eastern Europe is likely to emerge as a major grain exporter and thus help to meet the increase in China's imports."
Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

64:20636 Livernash, Robert; Rodenburg, Eric. Population change, resources, and the environment. Population Bulletin, Vol. 53, No. 1, Mar 1998. 40 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This Population Bulletin examines the likely global impacts of population growth and distribution on food supply, energy consumption, emission of greenhouse gases, forests, oceans, and other environmental factors. The authors review various models developed to explore the complex relationship among population change, consumption levels, resources, and environmental health, and they discuss the various philosophical perspectives that affect the interpretation of model results."
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20637 Maharatna, Arup. The demography of famines: an Indian historical perspective. ISBN 0-19-563711-9. 1996. xviii, 317 pp. Oxford University Press: Delhi, India. In Eng.
This study analyzes the demographic responses to Indian famines in historical perspective and is based primarily on data from the vital registration system, which was established in the 1870s. "Chapter 1 provides a survey of the major issues of famine demography. It also describes the setting for the present study and includes a discussion of the usefulness of India's registration data. In Chapter 2 demographic responses to major historical famines have been investigated at province level. Chapter 3 examines the demography of some historical famines which involved relatively small numbers of deaths. Chapter 4 presents a detailed study of the demography of the Bengal famine of 1943-4 at province level, while Chapter 5 is devoted to an analysis of regional (district-level) demographic variation during this crisis. The demographic consequences of the Maharashtra scarcity of 1972-3 have been analysed in Chapter 6. Chapter 7 presents a summary and conclusion."
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, YMCA Library Building, Jai Singh Road, New Delhi 110 001, India. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

64:20638 Morocco. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco); International Geographical Union [IGU] (Bonn, Germany). Population, environment, and poverty: proceedings of an international symposium held in Rabat, October 28-29, 1997. [Actes: population, environnement et pauvreté. Symposium international, Rabat, 28-29 octobre 1997.] 1997. 301 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
These are the proceedings of a conference on the relationships among population, poverty, and the environment held in Rabat, Morocco, in 1997. The 22 papers, 18 of which are in French and 4 in English, are organized under 6 topics: the socioeconomic context of poverty; demographic aspects of poverty; regional aspects of population and the environment; population and the urban environment; women, poverty, and the environment; and some national case studies of the poverty-environment relationship. The primary geographical focus of the conference was on the countries of Northern Africa, but some papers are included on countries outside of this region.
Correspondence: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques, B.P. 178, avenue Maâ El Ainine, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20639 Northcote, Thomas G. Effects of human population growth on the Fraser and Okanagan River systems, Canada: a comparative inquiry. GeoJournal, Vol. 40, No. 1-2, Oct 1996. 127-33 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
The author compares the impact of human population growth on the Fraser and Okanagan river systems in Canada. The effects "on water, fisheries and other aquatic resources of the two basins are explored along with possibilities and suggestions for their sustainable development. The latter, despite some glimmers of hope, will not be tenable without major changes in public attitude, in government policy at all levels, and in other measures which to many may seem impossible."
Correspondence: T. G. Northcote, University of British Columbia, Departments of Zoology, Forest Sciences, and Westwater Research Centre, Summerland, British Columbia, Canada. Location: Dartmouth College Library, Hanover, NH.

64:20640 Rohe, John F. A bicentennial Malthusian essay: conservation, population, and the indifference to limits. ISBN 1-890394-00-9. LC 97-66724. 1997. 191 pp. Rhodes and Easton: Traverse City, Michigan. In Eng.
This is a general essay on the relationships among population, conservation, and the environment, prepared as a tribute to Robert Malthus on the bicentennial of his Essay on the Principle of Population. The author identifies the indifference to limits as the major global problem facing the world's population. The essay is divided into three substantive parts, which cover human population growth, economic growth, and growth on the land.
Correspondence: Rhodes and Easton, 121 E. Front Street, 4th Floor, Traverse City, MI 49684. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20641 Schreier, H.; Shah, P. B. Water dynamics and population pressure in the Nepalese Himalayas. GeoJournal, Vol. 40, No. 1-2, Oct 1996. 45-51 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
The authors investigate the impact of water shortages, especially water for irrigation, on development in Nepal. "The problems associated with hydropower development will be illustrated by using the Kulekhani watershed project as a case study." The possible future effects on food supplies and health are discussed.
Correspondence: H. Schreier, University of British Columbia, Resource Management and Environmental Studies, Vancouver, British Columbia, Canada. Location: Dartmouth College Library, Hanover, NH.

64:20642 Scott, Susan; Duncan, S. R.; Duncan, C. J. The interacting effects of prices and weather on population cycles in a preindustrial community. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 30, No. 1, Jan 1998. 15-32 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"The exogenous cycles and population dynamics of the community at Penrith, Cumbria, England, have been studied (1557-1812) using aggregative analysis, family reconstitution and time series analysis. This community was living under marginal conditions for the first 200 years and the evidence presented is of a homeostatic regime where famine, malnutrition and epidemic disease acted to regulate the balance between resources and population size. This provides an ideal historic population for an investigation of the direct and indirect effects of malnutrition.... A model incorporating [the] interacting associations between vital events and exogenous cycles is presented...."
Correspondence: S. Scott, University of Liverpool, School of Biological Sciences, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20643 Swain, Ashok. Displacing the conflict: environmental destruction in Bangladesh and ethnic conflict in India. Journal of Peace Research, Vol. 33, No. 2, May 1996. 189-204 pp. Oslo, Norway. In Eng.
"According to our case analysis, environmental destruction--even that resulting from `development projects' like the Farakka barrage--can lead to the loss of sources of living, resulting in mass population movements. These migrants in turn come into conflict with indigenous populations in the receiving areas--in this case, in various parts of India.... The intensive documentation presented [here] gives considerable weight to the case that there is a possible link between environmental destruction in Bangladesh due to the Farakka barrage and increasing ethnic conflict in India."
Correspondence: A. Swain, Uppsala University, Department of Peace and Conflict Research, 75120 Uppsala, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

64:20644 Al-Qudsi, Sulayman. Labor markets in the future of Arab economies: the imperatives and implications of economic restructuring. In: Population and development transformations in the Arab world, edited by Ismail Sirageldin and Eqbal Al-Rahmani. 1996. 133-62 pp. JAI Press: Greenwich, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper reviews recent developments in the Arab labor markets and analyzes the factors that are likely to affect their future dynamics. The paper starts by sketching current debate on the rising unemployment trend and impact of economic restructuring on labor markets, their outcomes, and the role of the state in the labor market."
Location: Princeton University Library (IR).

64:20645 Amuedo Dorantes, Catalina; Huang, Wei-Chiao. Unemployment, immigration, and NAFTA: a panel study of ten major U.S. industries. Journal of Labor Research, Vol. 18, No. 4, Fall 1997. 613-9 pp. Fairfax, Virginia. In Eng.
"We conduct a pooled cross-section and time-series analysis of the unemployment rates across ten major industries in the U.S. from 1983 to 1994 to assess the effect of NAFTA and immigration. Our results indicate that the output produced by the industry, unemployment benefit coverage, and interest rates are significant determinants of industry unemployment rates, but union presence does not affect industry unemployment. Both Canadian and Mexican immigrants appear to be complements to the U.S. labor force, with Canadian immigrants highly complementary to American labor. Finally, the Chow test provides no evidence that NAFTA has changed the structure of unemployment determination in these industries."
Correspondence: C. Amuedo Dorantes, Western Michigan University, Kalamazoo, MI 49008. Location: Princeton University Library (IR).

64:20646 Bäcker, G. Demographic change, labor market trends, and employment prospects of older workers. [Demographischer Wandel, Arbeitsmarktentwicklung und Beschäftigungsperspektiven älterer Arbeitnehmer.] Zeitschrift für Gerontologie und Geriatrie, Vol. 29, No. 1, 1996. 23-8 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes the impact of demographic trends on the labor market in Germany, with a focus on employment-related opportunities for older workers. "The rate of younger employees is decreasing and the average age of the workforce is increasing. This does not imply, however, that the chances for older employees in the labor market will improve or that their working-life will be prolonged. As long as the labor market situation is difficult, the trend towards early retirement cannot be reversed." The author suggests that better opportunities for flexible or part-time work might increase the labor force participation of older workers.
Correspondence: G. Bäcker, Fachhochschule Niederrhein, FB Sozialwesen, Richard-Wagner-Straße 101, 41065 Mönchengladbach, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20647 Beaujot, Roderic; Haddad, Tony. The productive activities of Canadian adults at mid-life: family, work and children. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 97-13, ISBN 0-7714-2053-6. Dec 1997. 26 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"The objective of this study is to consider the productive activities of [Canadian] adults at mid-life, including both paid and unpaid work. After summarizing the family situations of persons aged 30-54, their paid work is considered, and finally the total time in productive activities. Both paid work and time in productive activities are analyzed according to the family status of men and women. Various models are then discussed in terms of the division of paid and unpaid work in couples."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20648 Blau, David M.; Robins, Philip K. A dynamic analysis of turnover in employment and child care. Demography, Vol. 35, No. 1, Feb 1998. 83-96 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"The causes of turnover in child-care arrangements and maternal employment are analyzed using panel data from the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth, supplemented with state-level information on child-care markets. The results indicate that turnover in child care is quite high and that child and family characteristics help explain turnover. Important factors include the mother's wage, the cost of child care, age of the child, and previous child-care decisions. The reduced-form nature of the analysis makes it difficult to determine whether these factors are important because they are associated with unstable child-care supply or because they affect family decisions, conditional on supply factors. The results provide no direct evidence that child-care turnover is higher in states with more unstable child-care markets."
Correspondence: D. M. Blau, University of North Carolina, Department of Economics, CB No. 3305, Gardner Hall, Chapel Hill, NC 27599-3305. E-mail: david_blau@unc.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20649 De Silva, Soma. Population and labour force projections for Sri Lanka 1991-2031. ISBN 955-577-102-2. Mar 1994. 56 pp. Department of Census and Statistics: Colombo, Sri Lanka. In Eng.
"This report seeks to provide...planners and others...with a set of projections of [Sri Lanka's] population and its labour force for the next several decades.... The projections presented here show that Sri Lanka's population will continue to grow for the next several decades even though the tempo of growth has declined and will continue to do so. They highlight another significant emerging issue in the demography of Sri Lanka: the fast changing age composition towards an elderly population." Sections are included on future population size and growth; birth rates, death rates, and natural increase; age-sex composition; and labor force projections.
Correspondence: Department of Census and Statistics, P.O. Box 563, Colombo, Sri Lanka. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20650 Gerfin, Michael. The labor force participation of women in Switzerland: a dynamic probit model for the years 1991-1995. [Die Erwerbsbeteiligung von Frauen in der Schweiz: ein dynamisches Probit-Modell für die Jahre 1991-1995.] Schweizerische Zeitschrift für Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Revue Suisse d'Economie Politique et de Statistique/Swiss Journal of Economics and Statistics, Vol. 134, No. 1, Mar 1998. 93-114 pp. Basel, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"Using the Swiss Labour Force Survey panel data I estimate a dynamic probit model of female labour market participation. The model is estimated with several specifications of the covariance matrix of the error terms. In the more complicated cases the method of Simulated Maximum Likelihood is used. Estimation results indicate strong persistence in the labour market behaviour due to state dependence. Short spells of non-employment lead to smaller employment probabilities in subsequent periods compared to the case of continuous employment. Individual characteristics [such] as marital status, family composition and education have a significant influence on the participation probability. The local unemployment rate is also of importance."
Correspondence: M. Gerfin, Universität Bern, Volkwirtschaftliches Institut, Gesellschaftsstrasse 49, 3012 Bern, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

64:20651 Kenya. Central Bureau of Statistics (Nairobi, Kenya). Kenya population census 1989: Analytical report. Volume IX: labour force. [1997?]. [39] pp. Nairobi, Kenya. In Eng.
This report analyzes labor force data from the 1989 census of Kenya. There are chapters on labor force characteristics, employment status, and findings and recommendations.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning and National Development, P.O. Box 30266, Nairobi, Kenya. Location: Northwestern University Library, Evanston, IL.

64:20652 Maurin, Louis. The demographic decline: could it put an end to unemployment? [Le déclin démographique: peut-il mettre fin au chômage?] Alternatives Economiques, No. 141, Oct 1996. 68-71 pp. Quetigny, France. In Fre.
Using the example of France, the author examines the extent to which the entry of smaller cohorts into the labor force each year will help to reduce levels of unemployment. He concludes that a simple quantitative relationship of this kind is not valid, as the key factors governing rates of unemployment involve a number of economic and social choices, including the desire to participate in the labor force, changes in productivity, and rates of economic growth.
Location: British Library, Document Supply Centre, Wetherby, England.

64:20653 Powers, Mary G.; Seltzer, William. Occupational status and mobility among undocumented immigrants by gender. International Migration Review, Vol. 32, No. 1, Spring 1998. 21-55 pp. Staten Island, New York. In Eng.
"This article addresses two issues concerning...the integration and mobility of undocumented immigrants in the United States: (1) whether undocumented men and women improve their earnings and occupational status over time and (2) the extent of variation in occupational status and mobility by gender and region. Data from the 1989 Legalized Population Survey indicate that both undocumented men and women, on average, improved their earnings and occupational status between their first jobs in the United States and their jobs just prior to application for legalization under the 1986 Immigration Reform and Control Act. The earnings, occupational status, and occupational mobility of men were greater than for women, however."
This paper was originally presented at the 1996 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: M. G. Powers, Fordham University, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20654 Rice, Robert C. The Indonesian urban informal sector: characteristics and growth from 1980 to 1990. Journal of Population, Vol. 3, No. 1, Jun 1997. 37-65 pp. Depok, Indonesia. In Eng.
The author "discusses some theoretical aspects of the urban informal sector and presents some pertinent findings in Indonesia such as why persons enter the informal sector, relationships of the informal sector to itself and the formal sector (FS), factors affecting the competitiveness and potential of the informal subsectors, and the interpretation of a change in the size of the informal sector relative to the formal sector. An analysis of Central Bureau of Statistics data shows that the rate of growth of the informal sector from 1985 to 1990 was much lower than the formal sector and much lower than the informal sector from 1980 to 1985...."
Correspondence: R. C. Rice, Monash University, Department of Economics, Clayton, Victoria, Australia. E-mail: robert.rice@buseco.monash.edu.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20655 Rougerie, Catherine; Courtois, Jocelyn. A step toward adulthood: the first real job. [Une étape du passage à l'âge adulte: l'emploi qui compte.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1997. 1,297-327 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The authors examine the process of young people in France finding a first job. Data are from the 1993 Coming of Age Survey. Aspects considered include age at first job, length of time in job search, social status, education, and living arrangements.
Correspondence: C. Rougerie, Dares, 20 bis rue d'Estrées, 757000 Paris 07SP, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20656 Schoeni, Robert F. Labor market outcomes of immigrant women in the United States: 1970 to 1990. International Migration Review, Vol. 32, No. 1, Spring 1998. 57-77 pp. Staten Island, New York. In Eng.
"The primary objective of this study is to provide a broad picture of the significance of immigrant women in the U.S. economy and the experiences they have had. Therefore, we examine a wide array of labor market outcomes, including labor force participation, self-employment, unemployment, weeks worked per year, hours worked per week, and weekly earnings. Moreover, we examine trends in these outcomes over the past two decades by drawing on the 1970, 1980 and 1990 censuses.... After documenting the differences in outcomes among groups, [we]...determine whether education, English language ability, and fertility can explain these disparities."
Correspondence: R. F. Schoeni, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20657 Shumway, J. Matthew; Cooke, Thomas J. Gender and ethnic concentration and employment prospects for Mexican-American migrants. Growth and Change, Vol. 29, No. 1, Winter 1998. 23-43 pp. Malden, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"The primary purpose of this paper is to analyze the effects of migration on the employment of Mexican-Americans [in the United States]. This paper attempts to answer the question, `what effect, if any, does the migration of Mexican-Americans have on their employment outcomes?' To explore this question the empirical research is situated within a gendered and ethnic theoretical framework. Using the 1990 Public Use Microsample (PUMS) data for the empirical analysis, the effects are differentiated by gender and examined as to how localized concentrations of coethnics affect the returns to migration, after controlling for migration self-selection bias. The results suggest migration decreases the employment probabilities for married women with no significant effect for single women or men. Greater percentage of coethnics increases employment for all groups except single women."
Correspondence: J. M. Shumway, Brigham Young University, Department of Geography, Provo, UT 84602. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

64:20658 Siklos, Pierre L.; Marr, William L. The unemployment insurance compensation experience of immigrants in Canada, 1980-1988. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 11, No. 1, Feb 1998. 127-47 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The authors examine "the unemployment experience of Canadian immigrant cohorts over the time period 1980 to 1988. Using the records of unemployment insurance [UI] benefits of persons who immigrated to Canada in those years and who filed income tax returns, the unemployment experiences of those people are compared by landing year, gender, level of education, language ability, and country of last permanent residence.... We find no obvious influences on UI receipt behaviour following the immigration reforms of 1982. However, the recession of 1981-82 had a major impact on incomes which did not recover until 5 or 6 years later. Nevertheless, more generous UI benefits did raise slightly the likelihood of UI receipts."
Correspondence: P. L. Siklos, Wilfrid Laurier University, Department of Economics, Waterloo, Ontario N2L 3C5, Canada. E-mail:psiklos@wlu.ca. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20659 Zhang, Junjie; Beaujot, Roderic. The labour market transition experience of the jobless in Canada: find a job or be your own boss? Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 97-12, ISBN 0-7714-2052-8. Dec 1997. 26 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"The present study considers self-employment and paid work as two competing alternatives for the jobless [in Canada].... The consideration of timing patterns, and the traits predicting entry into paid work and self-employment, will help elaborate the mechanisms of incorporation of the jobless into the labour market."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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