Volume 64 - Number 2 - Summer 1998

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

64:20068 Polyakov, Yu. A.; Aralovets, N. A.; Verbitskaya, O. M.; Zhiromskaya, V. B. The population of Russia in the period 1920 to 1950: population size, losses, and migration. A collection of scholarly works. [Naselenie Rossii v 1920-1950-e gody: chislennost', poteri, migratsii. Sbornik nauchnykh trudov.] ISBN 5-201-00666-3. LC 95-119924. 1994. 222 pp. Rossiiskaya Akademiya Nauk, Institut Rossiiskoi Istorii: Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
This is a collection of studies by various authors that attempts to throw more light on demographic developments in Russia in the period 1920-1950. This period was characterized by a lack of available demographic data, since the data that were collected were generally kept confidential, and those that were released generally served propaganda purposes, showing the Soviet regime in a favorable light. The studies presented here make use of the data that are now becoming more available for this period, and examine such subjects as population losses during the Russian Revolution and World War I, the famines that occurred between 1921 and 1932, the repressions of specific populations, and forced migrations.
Correspondence: Rossiiskaya Akademiya Nauk, Institut Rossiiskoi Istorii, Leninsky Pr. 14, 117901 Moscow, Russia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

64:20069 Rasevic, Miroslav. An estimate of the basic parameters of the population in the Brankovica region for 1455. [Procena osnovnih pararmetara stanovnistva oblasti brankovica za 1455. Godinu.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 35, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1997. 45-92 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author provides estimates of the 1455 population structure in a region of what is now part of Kosovo, Yugoslavia. Information is provided on population size, households, family structure, age and sex distribution, fertility, mortality, ethnic groups, and socioeconomic characteristics.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

64:20070 Beale, Calvin L.; Johnson, Kenneth M. The identification of recreational counties in nonmetropolitan areas of the USA. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 17, No. 1, Feb 1998. 37-53 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Nonmetropolitan counties in the USA with significant concentrations of recreational activity are identified using a combination of quantitative and contextual indicators. The 285 counties identified as recreational encompass 12 percent of the nonmetropolitan counties and 15 percent of the 1990 nonmetropolitan population. Population growth in such counties has consistently exceeded that in other nonmetropolitan areas as well as that in metropolitan areas. Net migration accounted for most of the population growth in such counties during the 24 years considered. The revenue and expenditure patterns of local governments in recreational counties differ from those elsewhere suggesting significant policy concerns."
Correspondence: K. M. Johnson, Loyola University, Department of Sociology, 933 Damen Hall, 6525 North Sheridan Road, Chicago, IL 60626. E-mail: kjohnso@luc.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20071 Cook, Tricia. Overnight visitor counts in Australia and their implications for population estimation. People and Place, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1998. 60-70 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"On the night of the 1996 Census, 5.4 per cent of the people counted in Australia were staying away from home (visitors), compared to 4.6 per cent in 1986. Queensland's share of the nation's visitors has risen since 1986, largely at the expense of Western Australia's. Queensland is now the most popular destination for interstate and overseas visitors, while New South Wales hosts a large proportion of intrastate visitors. But the overall picture is partly obscured because the Census missed around 100,000 overseas visitors."
Correspondence: T. Cook, Queensland Department of Local Government and Planning, Planning and Forecasting Unit, Brisbane, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20072 de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine; Monnier, Alain. The current demographic situation: Europe and developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture démographique: L'Europe et les pays développés d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1997. 1,187-215 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is the latest in a series of annual reviews of current demographic trends in the developed countries of the world. There are sections on population trends, fertility, marriage and divorce, abortion, and mortality.
For a previous review in this series, see 63:10069.
Correspondence: C. de Guibert-Lantoine, 12 rue Letellier, 75015 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20073 European Communities. Statistical Office [EUROSTAT] (Luxembourg). Population, households and dwellings in Europe: main results of the 1990/1991 censuses. Theme 3, Population and Social Conditions: Series C, Accounts and Surveys, ISBN 92-827-8838-5. 1996. xxxix, 236, [16] pp. Luxembourg. In Eng.
This publication presents a selection of data from recent censuses undertaken in the countries of Europe. There are tables on population by age, sex, marital status, and citizenship; the economically active population and employment; education; households; families; and housing. "The information is presented not only at national but also at regional level and is illustrated by figures and maps. This publication provides not only absolute figures but also calculated percentages and rates. The differing national practices as regards census dates, definitions, classifications and tabulations make comparisons between the different Member States difficult. A diskette accompanying this publication is available. It contains most of the information included in this publication. All census data collected by Eurostat are included in the NEW CRONOS database at Eurostat."
Correspondence: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2985 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20074 Japan. Statistics Bureau. Management and Coordination Agency (Tokyo, Japan). Intercensal adjustment of current population estimates. Population Estimates Series, No. 69, Dec 1997. 84 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng; Jpn.
This report contains adjusted population estimates by age and sex for Japan for the period 1990-1995. The estimates have been adjusted to take into account the final results from the 1990 and 1995 censuses. The estimates are presented separately for the whole country and for individual prefectures.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo 162-8668, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20075 Kerjosse, Roselyne; Tamby, Irène. The demographic situation in 1995: population changes. [La situation démographique en 1995: mouvement de la population.] INSEE Résultats: Démographie-Société, No. 65-66, ISBN 2-11-066667-6. Dec 1997. 264 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one in a series of reports in which current demographic trends in France are reviewed. The report consists primarily of statistical data organized into sections on population, marriages, divorces, legitimizations of children born outside of marriage, births, induced abortions, deaths, monthly data, migrations, departmental and regional data, and international data. The French vital statistics system is described in an appendix, and some definitions and methods used in producing the data are described.
For a previous report concerning 1994, see 63:10067.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Direction Générale, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20076 Lithuania. Lietuvos Statistikos Departamentas (Vilnius, Lithuania); Estonia. Eesti Statistikaamet (Tallinn, Estonia); Latvia. Valsts Statistikas Komiteja (Riga, Latvia). Demographic statistics in the Baltic countries, 1996. ISBN 9986-589-49-5. 1996. 67 pp. Vilnius, Lithuania. In Eng.
This publication presents a selection of official demographic statistics for the three Baltic countries Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, the most recent of which are for 1995. Data are included on rural and urban population, sex and age distribution, nationality, vital statistics, fertility, illegitimacy, abortion, mortality, life expectancy, stillbirths and infant deaths, marriage and divorce, and international migration.
Correspondence: Lithuanian Department of Statistics, Section of Demography, Gedimono Av. 29, 2746 Vilnius, Lithuania. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20077 Smith, Stanley K.; Nogle, June M. An experimental methodology for estimating Hispanic residents for states and counties. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 23, No. 4, 1997. 263-75 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this article, we describe an experimental methodology for estimating the Hispanic population of states and counties. Postcensal data on births, deaths, and school enrollment are used for estimates of the total Hispanic population and data from the two most recent decennial censuses are used for estimates of the age, sex, and race distribution of that population. We discuss the strengths and weaknesses of this methodology and illustrate its application by making estimates of the Hispanic population for counties in Florida."
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, Bureau of Economic and Business Research, 221 Matherly Hall, Gainesville, FL 32611-7145. E-mail: stans@bebr.cba.ufl.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).

64:20078 Sommer, Bettina. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1996. [Eheschließungen, Geburten und Sterbefälle 1996.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 3, Mar 1998. 232-8 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
This report of marriages, births, and deaths in Germany summarizes changes and trends in 1996. As in previous years, there were fewer marriages, and the trend toward higher age at marriage continued. There was a significant increase in the number of births and in the total fertility rate, and the number of births to women over 30 continued to increase. There were fewer deaths, and life expectancy continued to rise. The report draws some comparisons between the former East and West Germany, and also looks at past trends.
Correspondence: B. Sommer, Statistisches Bundesamt, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 11, 6200 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

64:20079 South Africa. Central Statistical Service (Pretoria, South Africa). Census '96: preliminary estimates of the size of the population of South Africa. Jun 1997. 56 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Preliminary estimates of the population of South Africa based on data from the 1996 census are presented in this report. The data are provided by sex, province, and for rural and urban areas. The results indicate that the total size of the population was around 37.9 million in 1996, compared with previous estimates indicating that the total population at that date would probably be about 42.1 million.
Correspondence: Central Statistical Service, Private Bag X44, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: U.S. Bureau of the Census, ISPC Library, Washington, D.C. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 173, Sep-Oct 1997.

64:20080 Swanson, David; Carlson, John; Roe, Linda; Williams, Christopher. Estimating the population of rural communities by age and gender: a case study of the effectiveness of local expert procedure. Small Town, Vol. 25, No. 6, May-Jun 1995. 14-21 pp. Ellensburg, Washington. In Eng.
"This article examines the accuracy of a survey-based technique called the Local Expert Procedure (LEP), for estimating selected demographic characteristics of small, rural areas. The procedure...employs local citizens to provide demographic information about households which were randomly selected from a residential sample extracted from utility records." The procedure is used to provide age and sex estimates for the population of three communities near Yucca Mountain, Nevada.
Correspondence: D. Swanson, Portland State University, School of Urban and Public Affairs, Center for Population Research and Census, P.O. Box 751, Portland, OR 97207-0751. E-mail: DSwa697646@aol.com. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

64:20081 Alba, Francisco. Population, economy, and society: conflict or convergence in the future of Mexico? [Población, economía y sociedad: ┐conflicto o convergencia en el futuro de México?] Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, Vol. 11, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1996. 521-47, 660 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"Probable demographic trends and characteristics from the 1990s to the year 2020 [in Mexico] are presented. Then, some of the main economic and social implications of these trends are explored at the aggregate level. Also, some general considerations are given to the possibilities of convergence or conflict between the future demographic evolution, the needs of an open and free-market-oriented economic development strategy, and some social demands associated, probably, to a less controlled and less predictable political system."
Correspondence: F. Alba, El Colegio de México, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20082 Bell, Felicitie C. Social Security area population projections: 1997. Actuarial Study, No. 112, Pub. Order No. 11-11553. Aug 1997. v, 130 pp. U.S. Social Security Administration: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
Population projections are presented for the Social Security Area (consisting of the United States and various territories and U.S. dependencies overseas). Three alternative projections are provided for each of the next 75 years by age, sex, and marital status using official estimates for 1995 as the base population. The methods and assumptions used in making the projections are described.
Correspondence: U.S. Social Security Administration, Office of the Actuary, Room 700, Altmeyer Building, Baltimore, MD 21235. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20083 Boleslawski, Lech. Assumptions of the forecast of Poland's population by voivodships for the years 1995-2020. Polish Population Review, No. 11, 1997. 143-57 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
"The paper briefly discusses the course of the basic demographic phenomena and processes in Poland, and the factors that determine the changes.... A detailed analysis [is provided] of the size and variability of fertility, mortality and migrations.... The method of calculating particular forecast components is presented, as well as results of calculations of the...number and structure of population and of the forecast of the vital statistics and migrations of population."
Correspondence: L. Boleslawski, Central Statistical Office, Division of Demographic Statistics, al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20084 Bolivia. Instituto Nacional de Estadística (La Paz, Bolivia). Bolivia: population projections by department and by sex and age-group (1990-2025). [Bolivia: proyecciones de la población por departamentos segun sexo y grupos de edad (1990-2025).] LC 97-176838. Jul 1996. [v], 48 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estadística [INE]: La Paz, Bolivia; United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]: New York, New York; UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Bolivia and its provinces by sex and age group for the period 1990-2025.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Ministerio de Hacienda, Plaza Mario Guzmán Aspiazu No. 1, Casilla 6129, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

64:20085 de Beer, J. Population forecasts 1997-2003: more births. [Bevolkingsprognose 1997-2003: meer geboorten.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 1, Jan 1998. 17-9 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The new [Netherlands] population forecasts differ in three respects from the previous forecasts published one year ago. 1. The forecast period is limited to 1997-2003, whereas the previous forecasts covered the period until 2050.... 2. The observed population on 1 January 1997 is 7 thousand higher than the forecasts published one year ago. 3. The assumption of the total fertility rate (TFR) in the period 1997-2002 is revised in an upward direction...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20086 de Jong, A. H. Population scenarios for the European Economic Area: components of population growth. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 12, Dec 1997. 9-16 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article examines the individual contribution of the constituent components of population growth (fertility, mortality and net external migration) for the European Economic Area (EEA) and its countries. Section 2 describes the general outline of the scenarios for the countries of the EEA. Section 3 gives the main results for the EEA, whereas section 4 elaborates on the countries of the EEA."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20087 Heuveline, Patrick. AIDS and population growth in Sub-Saharan Africa: assessing the sensitivity of projections. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 16, No. 6, Dec 1997. 531-60 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In sub-Saharan Africa, population growth rates are projected to remain positive in spite of the [AIDS] pandemic over the next few decades. To investigate this conclusion, alternative projections of an HIV/AIDS epidemic and its related mortality are first produced from different sets of input parameters and assumptions. Their incorporation into the population projections of a fast-growing country illustrates the robustness of projected population growth rates under very different scenarios of the future epidemic but with the common assumption that it will not affect the mortality of the uninfected population, fertility nor migration. This paper then shows that the projected growth rates are much less robust when interactions between the epidemic and the demographic regime are allowed and identifies several potential mechanisms for such interactions."
This paper was originally presented at the 1995 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: P. Heuveline, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. E-mail: heuvel@ssc.sas.upenn.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20088 Japan. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Tokyo, Japan). Population projections by prefecture, 1995-2025. Research Series, No. 293, Aug 1, 1997. ii, 163 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented by age and sex for Japan by prefecture up to the year 2025.
Correspondence: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20089 Kenya. Central Bureau of Statistics (Nairobi, Kenya). Kenya population census 1989: Analytical report. Volume VII: population projections. [1997?]. [77] pp. Nairobi, Kenya. In Eng.
These projections are based on data from the 1989 census of Kenya. The projections are made by sex up to the year 2010, both with and without taking into consideration the demographic impact of AIDS. They are given for the whole country and for provinces and districts.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Ministry of Planning and National Development, P.O. Box 30266, Nairobi, Kenya. Location: Northwestern University Library, Evanston, IL.

64:20090 Marciniak, Grazyna. Verification of the assumptions underlying the forecast of Poland's population to the year 2020. Polish Population Review, No. 11, 1997. 158-65 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
"The forecast of Poland's population to the year 2020 was developed in two stages. The paper briefly discusses the basic assumptions of the demographic forecast...." Aspects considered include fertility, mortality, and migration. The impact of economic conditions and changes in the labor market is considered.
Correspondence: G. Marciniak, Central Statistical Office, Division of Demographic Statistics, al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20091 Morocco. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). Current demographic situation and future prospects in Morocco. [Situation et perspectives démographiques du Maroc.] Etudes Démographiques, 1997. 315 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
This report includes five separate studies on aspects of current and future population trends in Morocco. The first examines current demographic trends, including population size, characteristics, growth, and spatial distribution. The factors affecting these trends, including fertility, mortality, and migration, are analyzed. An attempt is also made to estimate the socioeconomic needs of a growing population. The second study looks at population projections up to the year 2014 for the country as a whole and its various regions and districts. The third study examines longer-term projections up to the year 2060. The fourth study focuses on household projections up to 2010. The fifth and final study analyzes levels and determinants of maternal mortality in Morocco.
Correspondence: Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques, B.P. 178 avenue Maâ Elainine, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20092 Pitkin, John R.; Simmons, Patrick A. The foreign-born population to 2010: a prospective analysis by country of birth, age, and duration of U.S. residence. Journal of Housing Research, Vol. 7, No. 1, 1996. 1-31 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article uses a variant of the cohort-component method to project the foreign-born population by country of birth, age, and duration of U.S. residence.... Assuming a continuation of recent immigration levels and foreign-born emigration rates, the foreign-born population is projected to grow to 31.1 million in 2010. Growth is projected to be substantial among Latino and Asian immigrants. Rapid growth is also projected among immigrants ages 45 to 59 and immigrants who have resided in the United States for at least 20 years."
Correspondence: J. R. Pitkin, Analysis and Forecasting Incorporated, P.O. Box 415, Cambridge, MA 02238. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

64:20093 Shen, Jianfa. China's future population and development challenges. Geographical Journal, Vol. 164, No. 1, Mar 1998. 32-40 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with the consequences of population growth and rapid urbanization in China since the beginning of economic reforms. Detailed urban-rural and national population projections were carried out using an urban-rural population model. Three main challenges crucial to China's future development were identified in the light of the results. These are the agriculture-food challenge, the employment challenge and the urbanization challenge."
Correspondence: J. Shen, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Department of Geography, Shatin, New Territories, Hong Kong, China. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

64:20094 Takahashi, Shigesato; Kaneko, Ryuichi; Ishikawa, Akira; Ikenoue, Masako; Mita, Fusami. Population projections for Japan: 1996-2100. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 53, No. 1, 1997. 64-98 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections are presented for Japan up to the year 2100.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20095 Tayman, Jeff; Schafer, Edward; Carter, Lawrence. The role of population size in the determination and prediction of population forecast errors: an evaluation using confidence intervals for subcounty areas. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 17, No. 1, Feb 1998. 1-20 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper describes a technique for making subcounty population forecasts and for generating confidence intervals around their forecast error. It also develops statistical equations for calculating point estimates and confidence intervals for areas with different population sizes. A non-linear, inverse relationship between population size and forecast accuracy was found and we demonstrate the ability to accurately predict average forecast error and confidence intervals based on this relationship.... The data consists of 1980 and 1990 census observations and 1990 population forecasts for San Diego County, California, USA."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101. E-mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20096 Ünalan, Turgay. Turkey's population at the beginning of the 21st century. Turkish Journal of Population Studies/Nüfusbilim Dergisi, Vol. 19, 1997. 57-72 pp. Ankara, Turkey. In Eng. with sum. in Tur.
"The aim of this paper is first to provide a brief evaluation of...Turkey's population and second to present a picture of the Turkish population at the first decades of the 21st century based on...population projections, and thirdly to compare both the present and the future populations of Turkey and some European countries."
Correspondence: T. Ünalan, Hacettepe University, Institute of Population Studies, Hacettepe Parki, Ankara, Turkey. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20097 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (New York, New York). World population projections to 2150. Feb 1, 1998. 7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The long-range population projections presented here, prepared by the United Nations Population Division, cover the period from 1950 to 2150.... The median fertility scenario projects that world population could reach 10.8 billion persons by 2150 and would ultimately stabilize at nearly 11 billion persons around 2200. However, the low and high fertility scenarios put a large band around the numbers--from 3.6 billion persons in 2150 to 27.0 billion in 2150."
Correspondence: J. Chamie, UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, Population Division, DC2-1950, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20098 van der Gaag, N.; de Jong, A. H. Population scenarios for the European Union: regional scenarios. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 45, No. 12, Dec 1997. 17-31 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article presents a look at future demographic developments at the regional level within the countries of the European Union. Although total population within the Union will still be growing in the next three decades, several regions will face a zero or negative population growth at some time. As a consequence of a declining fertility, coinciding with an increased number of deaths due to ageing, only a small number of regions will still experience a positive natural growth in 2025. For many regions the impact of net migration on population growth will become more important."
Correspondence: N. van der Gaag, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20099 van Miert, Hans. The Immigration and Naturalization Service and demographic forecasts. [De Immigratie- en Naturalisatie Dienst en demografische prognoses.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 1, Jan 1998. 14-6 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The Immigration and Naturalisation Service of the Netherlands is a government institution with the authority to decide which persons are allowed immigration into the Netherlands. Its decisions are not only of importance to the potential immigrants themselves, but also to organizations responsible for enforcing the jurisdiction. In order to perform such tasks in a fair and efficient manner, forecasts of immigrants, in particular forecasts of asylum seekers, are indispensable."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20100 Vasina, G.; Vukolova, S.; Nikitina, S. Population projections for the Russian Federation up to 2010. [Prognoz chislennosti naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii do 2010 goda.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 10, 1997. 67-75 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Four alternative population projections for the Russian Federation are presented by sex up to the year 2010. Projections for the urban and rural population are presented separately. Information is included on the assumptions concerning fertility, mortality, and life expectancy on which the various projections are based.
Correspondence: G. Vasina, Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

64:20101 Dyagilev, B.; Luchkina, L. Demographic changes in East European countries and Russia. Social Sciences, Vol. 25, No. 1, 1994. 86-96 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Eng.
The authors outline demographic trends in Eastern Europe and Russia since 1970. Aspects considered include population size, birth rate and number of births, marriage and divorce, death rate, infant mortality, natural increase, sex ratio, and life expectancy.
Correspondence: B. Dyagilev, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute for International Economic and Political Studies, Leninsky Pr. 14, 117901 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

64:20102 Lincot, Liliane; Lutinier, Bruno. Departmental and regional demographic changes between 1975 and 1994. [Les évolutions démographiques départementales et régionales entre 1975 et 1994.] INSEE Résultats: Démographie-Société, No. 67-68, ISBN 2-11-066699-4. Feb 1998. 242 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This report presents data on the main demographic indicators for the departments and regions of France for the period 1975-1994. The data are provided separately for the population as a whole and for natality and fertility, mortality, and nuptiality. A separate section includes similar data for the overseas departments of France for the period 1983-1994.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:20103 Sobczak, Izydor. Natural movement of the population in the voivodships of western and northern Poland. Polish Population Review, No. 10, 1997. 310-35 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author discusses natural increase in western and northern Poland since 1948. Sections are included on marriages, births, and deaths.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1998, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.