Volume 64 - Number 1 - Spring 1998

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

64:10759 Blanchet, Didier. Nonlinear demographic models and models with chaotic demo-dynamics. [Modèles démographiques non linéaires et modèles à dynamique chaotique.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1997. 933-45 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Linear models derived from stable population theory still remain a basic reference, but it is clear that non linear models offer much more possibilities to account for actual demographic or demoeconomic dynamics. On the other hand, there is one aspect of non linear models which has been probably overemphasized over the last [few] years, which is their ability to generate chaotic dynamics. Up to now, models which have been proposed have some difficulties in deriving such a behavior from plausible assumptions concerning demographic behavior or demo-economic relationships. We illustrate this point of view by discussing two examples, borrowed respectively from Day (1984) and Prskawetz/Feichtinger (1995)."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Ecole Nationale de la Statistique et de l'Administration Economique, 3 avenue Pierre Larousse, 92245 Malakoff Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10760 Courgeau, Daniel; Baccaïni, Brigitte. Multilevel analysis in the social sciences. [Analyse multi-niveaux en sciences sociales.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1997. 831-63 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The multilevel approach can be used to study human behaviour taking into account not only individual characteristics but also the fact that these individuals belong to larger geographical units such as communes and regions. This article gives a detailed critical presentation of the aims and formulations of these models. Attention ranges from the most basic models, which introduce the many different levels in the form of individual and aggregated characteristics, to more complex models which operate with the random characteristics specific to each level, and culminates with multilevel event history models. The article concludes with a more general epistemological reflection on the contribution of these models."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: courgeau@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10761 Fratczak, Ewa; Jozwiak, Janina; Paszek, Barbara. The application of event history analysis to demography. [Zastosowania analizy historii zdarzen w demografii.] ISBN 83-86689-51-X. 1996. 154 pp. Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Oficyna Wydawnicza: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng.
The application of the methods of event history analysis to the study of demography is described in this report, with particular reference to the demography of Poland. Chapter 1 introduces the concepts of event history analysis and describes the retrospective study Life Course (Family, Occupational and Migratory Biography) carried out in Poland in 1988. Chapter 2 introduces the concept of survival models and gives examples of their application. Chapter 3 examines the relationship between events in different careers using the family and migration as examples. Chapter 4 focuses on theoretical aspects and gives examples of the use of semi-parametric models to analyze the relationships between events in two careers.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Oficyna Wydawnicza, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10762 Guérin-Pace, France. Textual statistics: an exploratory tool for the social sciences. [La statistique textuelle: un outil exploratoire en sciences sociales.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1997. 865-87 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The value of textual statistics is now widely acknowledged in many branches of the social sciences....The statistical processing may be of responses to open questions, interviews, texts and even individual itineraries. The procedures are numerous and can be adapted to different kinds of material. The aim in the present article is to give a broad overview of the various applications of these methods, ranging from the most traditional to the most recent, and focusing on both the methodology used and the results obtained."
Correspondence: F. Guérin-Pace, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: guerin@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10763 Holian, John. Client and birth record linkage: a method, biases, and lessons. Evaluation Practice, Vol. 17, No. 3, 1996. 227-35 pp. Greenwich, Connecticut. In Eng.
"Due to rising data collection costs and the availability of extant data files, record linkage is becoming increasingly important in evaluation research. We begin by discussing record linkage as a data-generating technique and its applicability to evaluation studies. This paper--part of a larger study assessing the perinatal outcomes of a comprehensive prenatal program for poor, urban women--describes a method for linking client records to live and stillbirth records [in Cleveland, Ohio]. Biases which can enter into the linkage process and general issues which need to be addressed early in an investigation are also discussed."
Correspondence: J. Holian, Cuyahoga Community College, Sociology Department, Western Campus, 11000 Pleasant Valley Road, Parma, OH 44130-5199. E-mail: john.holian@tri-c.cc.oh.us. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10764 Lelièvre, Eva; Bonvalet, Catherine; Bry, Xavier. Event history analysis of groups: initial results from an ongoing research project. [Analyse biographique des groupes: les avancées d'une recherche en cours.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1997. 803-30 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The event history approach...is applied using individual longitudinal data. Ideally, however, each individual itinerary would be situated in as broad a context as possible, and the analysis of individual demographic processes would take account of the close or competing events affecting the individual's entourage. In event history modelling, a shift from the individual to their entourage, for both data collection and analysis, implies a reconsideration of the choice of entities for longitudinal monitoring. A compromise must be reached between conceptual operationality and analytical consistency, in terms of both theory and models: this article presents the formal developments, then the more applied results from this on-going research [using French data]."
Correspondence: E. Lelièvre, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: eva@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10765 Rogerson, Peter A. The future of global population modeling. Futures, Vol. 29, No. 4-5, May-Jun 1997. 381-92 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"To consider future population change in an informed manner, it is important to appreciate some of the conceptual facets that underlie global demographic processes. In this paper, we shall examine some of the fundamental issues associated with global population modeling. The following sections sequentially consider questions of geographic scale, the nature of linkages between populations, population monitoring, the potential of new technology to address the task of population modeling, and the requirements for improved population analysis." The focus is on modeling future population trends.
Correspondence: P. A. Rogerson, State University of New York, Department of Geography, Buffalo, NY 14261. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

64:10766 Sánchez, Jesús. A new proposal for the measurement of fertility. Population Studies Center Research Report, No. 97-382, Feb 1997. 32 pp. University of Michigan, Population Studies Center: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"In this paper a critical analysis is made on some of the indexes used in numerous historical studies on the descent of fertility. More concretely, it is demonstrated how the Total Marital Fertility Rate (TMFR) and the I'g index of Marital Fertility designed by Coale (1986) not only are not good indicators of a population's level of marital fertility, but also in some cases (for example when there is an important delay in the female mean age at marriage) can even indicate an increase in marital fertility when in reality it is decreasing. Likewise, new indexes for measuring fertility (known as the Navarre Indexes) are presented which take into account the average marrying age for women as well as their mortality rate during their reproductive period."
Correspondence: University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: University of Michigan Library, Ann Arbor, MI.

64:10767 Verleye, G. Missing at random data problems and maximum likelihood structural equation modelling. IPD Working Paper, No. 1997-3, 1997. 20 pp. Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interface Demography: Brussels, Belgium; Universiteit Gent, Vakgroep Bevolkingswetenschappen: Gent, Belgium. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to present the results of a performance study that compares five missing data solutions in the context of structural equation modelling (SEM). By means of a 5 factor simulation approach with multiple numerical and graphical evaluations, 7 research hypotheses are tested. A new and easy applicable method to handle multiple imputed data sets is also presented."
Correspondence: Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Interface Demography, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. E-mail: esvbalck@vnet3.vub.ac.be. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10768 Westert, Gert P.; Verhoeff, René N. Places and people: multilevel modelling in geographical research. Nederlandse Geografische Studies, No. 227, ISBN 90-6809-247-2. 1997. 128 pp. Royal Dutch Geographical Society [KNAG]: Utrecht, Netherlands; Utrecht University, Faculty of Geographical Sciences: Utrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
This publication is the product of a seminar held in Utrecht in April 1996 on the use of multilevel modeling in data analysis. The papers included provide examples of the application of multilevel models to the analysis of data on health services, voting behavior, geographical information systems, home help utilization, physiotherapy utilization, and commuting. In the first three papers, the authors deal with some general issues related to the use of multilevel modelling in research. The next four papers describe specific projects using data from the Netherlands.
Correspondence: University of Utrecht, Faculty of Geographical Sciences, P.O. Box 80123, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. E-mail: KNAG@frw.ruu.nl. Location: British Library, Document Supply Centre, Wetherby, England.

64:10769 Word, David L.; Perkins, R. Colby. Building a Spanish surname list for the 1990's--a new approach to an old problem. Population Division Working Paper Series, No. 13, Mar 1996. iii, 25 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper describes a direct and reproducible method for creating an inventory of surnames characteristic of the Hispanic origin population in the United States. The individual surnames included in this inventory are created by combining distinct surnames into groups and then analyzing group responses to the 1990 Hispanic origin question." Both a long list and a short list can be purchased in electronic format.
The material in this paper was originally presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Author's E-mail: dword@census.gov. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1998, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.