Volume 64 - Number 1 - Spring 1998

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

64:10069 Andreev, E. M.; Darskii, L. E.; Khar'kova, T. L. The population of the Soviet Union: 1922-1991. [Naselenie Sovetskogo Soyuza: 1922-1991.] ISBN 5-02-013479-1. 1993. 143 pp. Nauka: Moscow, Russia. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
"The book is devoted to the analysis of long-term dynamics of the USSR population. On the basis of special studies and models the authors [reconstruct] annual population size estimates and a number of basic demographic indicators as well as estimates of the size of population losses caused by the famine of 1933 and the war of 1941-45; analyzed is the post-war dynamics of the USSR population. A number of chapters deal with the demographic situation in the country and its change during the last decade at a regional level." Reviews of current trends in fertility and mortality and of future population projections are also included.
Correspondence: Nauka, Profsoyuznaya ul. 90, 117864 GSP-7, Moscow B-485, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10070 Nasibullin, R. T. Population of the republic over the past 100 years. [Naselenie respubliki za poslednie 100 let.] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 8, 1997. 36-9 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
The author describes population trends in Bashkiria, an autonomous republic in the Russian Federation, over the past 100 years.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

64:10071 Bose, Ashish; Singh, Vinod K.; Adhikary, Mithu; Kumar, Satyendra; Bist, Mohan S. Demographic zones in India. ISBN 81-7018-867-9. LC 95-900337. 1994. x, 288 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
The primary purpose of this volume is to bring together official data from census publications, including those from the 1981 census, and other sources to provide a statistical picture of the demographic diversity of India at the district level. The authors suggest that one of the main reasons for the relative failure of the national family planning program has been its inability to take India's significant regional demographic differences into account. They also conclude that the crux of India's population problem lies in the four states of Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh. The data are presented separately for mortality, age at marriage, fertility, birth order, family planning, and literacy.
Correspondence: B. R. Publishing, D. K. Publishers Distributors (P), A-6 NIMRI Community Centre, Near Bharat Nagar, Delhi 110 052, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10072 Deardorff, Kevin E.; Hollmann, Frederick W. U.S. population estimates by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin: 1990 to 1996. Rev. ed. No. PPL-57, Mar 1997. ii, 30 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The attached tables present annual estimates of the resident population of the United States, with components of change. Table 1 is devoted to demographic detail, showing annual July 1 estimates of resident population by single year of age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin, for 1990 to 1996, with comparable data for the census date of April 1, 1990. Tables 2 and 3 are devoted to the accounting of population change, showing births, deaths, and migration across the U.S. borders, from the census data of April 1, 1990, until January 1, 1997. Table 2 provides components of change for the total resident population by month; table 3 provides components of change by calendar year, and by race and Hispanic origin."
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Projections Branch, Suitland, MD 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10073 Kucera, Milan; Simek, Miroslav. Development of population in the Czech Republic in 1996 (from the processing of results by the Czech Statistical Office). [Vývoj obyvatelstva Ceské republiky v roce 1996 (z výsledku zpracování Ceského statistického úradu).] Demografie, Vol. 39, No. 3, 1997. 157-72 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
The authors review population trends in the Czech Republic as of 1996. Information is provided on population growth, age distribution, nuptiality and divorce, fertility, illegitimacy, age-specific birth rate, marriage and birth postponement, induced abortion, life expectancy, infant mortality, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10074 Michugina, A.; Rakhmaninova, M. Changes in the population size of the Russian Federation in 1996. [Ob izmenenii chislennosti naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii v 1996 godu.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 3, 1997. 51-3 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
The authors analyze changes in the total size of the population of the Russian Federation. They discuss changes in population size in the various republics and autonomous regions that make up the federation, and the contribution of migration and natural increase or decrease to those changes. Changes in the size of the rural and urban populations are also considered.
Correspondence: A. Michugina, Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10075 Poland. Glowny Urzad Statystyczny (Warsaw, Poland). Area and population in the territorial profile, 1997. [Powierzchnia i ludnosc w przekroju terytorialnym, 1997.] Informacje i Opracowania Statystyczne/Information and Statistical Papers, 1997. 131 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
This report presents statistical data on the population of Poland by region and district, and for rural and urban areas.
Correspondence: Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10076 Russia. Goskomstat Rossii (Moscow, Russia). The size of the population of the Russian Federation by cities, urban settlements, and regions as of January 1, 1996. [Chislennost' naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii po gorodam, poselkam gorodskogo tipa i raionam na 1 Yanvarya 1996 g.] 1996. 219 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population estimates are presented for the Russian Federation for 1996. The estimates are presented by regions, administrative divisions, urban areas and settlements, and rural areas.
For previous estimates for 1994, see 62:20084.
Correspondence: Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10077 Simpson, Stephen; Middleton, Liz; Diamond, Ian; Lunn, David. Small-area population estimates: a review of methods used in Britain in the 1990s. International Journal of Population Geography, Vol. 3, No. 3, Sep 1997. 265-80 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
"Population estimates are usually produced by local government administrations in Britain, for each small area within their authority. Increasing interest has been shown by commerce and by central government. Five main methods are identified: apportionment, ratio change, additive change, cohort survival, and local censuses. Estimation strategies also vary according to available data, the detail in which a population is estimated, and the precise combination of elements chosen from one or more of the main methods. The use of methods at the beginning of the 1990s is surveyed in this paper, and examples given. The accuracy of each main method is quantified from empirical data collated by the Estimating with Confidence project. Likely developments towards the end of the 1990s are reviewed."
Correspondence: S. Simpson, University of Manchester, Cathie Marsh Centre for Census and Survey Research, FESS, Manchester M13 9PL, England. E-mail: stephen.simpson@man.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10078 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Latin America: population by calendar years and single ages. Period 1995-2005. [América Latina: población por años calendario y edades simples. Período 1995-2005.] Boletín Demográfico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 30, No. 60, Jul 1997. 285 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for the regions of Latin America and the Caribbean and for individual countries in these two regions for each year from 1995 to 2005 by sex and age.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

64:10079 Béteille, Roger. The French population in 2010. [La population française en 2010.] Information Géographique, Vol. 61, No. 1, Mar 1997. 8-18 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Probable future trends affecting the population of France up to the year 2010 are reviewed based on official data and the OMPHALE model developed at INSEE. The author notes that the population is expected to grow by about 5 million to reach a total of 61.7 million in 2010 and describes how this population gain will be unevenly distributed around the country. Probable changes in the population's age distribution and spatial distribution are also noted.
Correspondence: R. Béteille, Université de Poitiers, ITEEM, 15 rue de Blossac, 86034 Poitiers Cedex, France. Location: Rutgers University Library, New Brunswick, NJ.

64:10080 Botswana. Central Statistics Office (Gaborone, Botswana). Population projections, 1991-2021. Apr 1997. [239] pp. Gaborone, Botswana. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Botswana up to the year 2021. The methodology used, the data sources employed, and assumptions made in preparing the projections are first outlined. High, medium, and low variants of the projections are provided, as are alternative projections that make different assumptions concerning the development of AIDS.
Correspondence: Central Statistics Office, Private Bag 0024, Gaborone, Botswana. Source: Producer's announcement.

64:10081 Daponte, Beth O.; Kadane, Joseph B.; Wolfson, Lara J. Bayesian demography: projecting the Iraqi Kurdish population, 1977-1990. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 92, No. 440, Dec 1997. 1,256-67 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Projecting populations that have sparse or unreliable data, such as those of many developing countries, presents a challenge to demographers. The assumptions that they make to project data-poor populations frequently fall into the realm of `educated guesses', and the resulting projections, often regarded as forecasts, are valid only to the extent that the assumptions on which they are based reasonably represent the past or future, as the case may be. These traditional projection techniques do not incorporate a demographer's assessment of uncertainty in the assumptions. Addressing the challenges of forecasting a data-poor population, we project the Iraqi Kurdish population using a Bayesian approach. This approach incorporates a demographer's uncertainty about past and future characteristics of the population in the form of elicited prior distributions."
Correspondence: B. O. Daponte, University of Pittsburgh, University Center for Social and Urban Research, Office of Child Development, 4200 Fifth Avenue, Pittsburgh, PA 15260-0001. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

64:10082 Eberstadt, Nicholas. World population implosion? Public Interest, No. 129, Fall 1997. 3-22 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"We will survey the demographic contours of a world in which population has ceased to increase and examine some of the political, economic, and social implications that might flow from a global `population implosion' a few decades from now. (The new UN `low variant' projections will be our backdrop.) Unaccustomed as we may be to thinking about such a world, its advent might not be that far off. The UN projections in question imagine an indefinite demographic descent commencing just over 40 years from now--a time at which most of the earth's current inhabitants will likely still be alive."
Correspondence: N. Eberstadt, Harvard University, Center for Population and Development Studies, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

64:10083 Franklin, James C. Industry output and employment projections to 2006. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 120, No. 11, Nov 1997. 39-57 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The official projections for industry output and employment for the United States up to the year 2006 are presented. "The service-producing sector continues to lead projected employment growth; the 10 industries with the largest projected job growth are all service producers and account for 60 percent of the net increase in nonfarm wage and salary employment."
Correspondence: J. C. Franklin, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

64:10084 Fullerton, Howard N. Labor force 2006: slowing down and changing composition. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 120, No. 11, Nov 1997. 23-38 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This article describes the labor force projections made by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics up to the year 2006. The projections are made in detail for 136 age, sex, race, or Hispanic-origin groups. The results show that, as the baby-boom generation ages, the median age of the labor force will rise to a new record in 2006. It is also possible that the Hispanic labor force could exceed that of blacks in size by that date.
Correspondence: H. N. Fullerton, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

64:10085 Germany. Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landeskunde und Raumordnung (Bonn, Germany). Regional planning forecast for 2010. First results: population, households and economically active population. [Raumordnungsprognose 2010. Erste Ergebnisse: Bevölkerung, Haushalte und Erwerbspersonen.] Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, No. 12, 1994. xii, 815-971 pp. Bonn, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
This report, a regional planning forecast for Germany up to the year 2010, contains three separate contributions: Future population trends in the regions of Germany up to 2010--assumptions and results of a population forecast by the Federal Research Institute for Regional Geography and Regional Planning, by Hansjörg Bucher, Martina Kocks, and Mathias Siedhoff; Private households in the regions of Germany--a forecast to the year 2010, by Hansjörg Bucher and Martina Kocks; and The labor supply in the regions of Germany up to the year 2010, by Steffen Maretzke and Antonia Blach. Selected statistical results of the regional planning forecast are presented as an appendix of tables, and a fuller version of the data can also be purchased on diskette.
Correspondence: Bundesforschungsanstalt für Landeskunde und Raumordnung, Am Michaelshof 8, 53177 Bonn, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10086 Kedelski, Mieczyslaw. Demographic prospects for Poznan (1991-2015). [Perspektywy demograficzne Poznania (1991-2015).] ISBN 83-85530-24-X. 1994. 115 pp. Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu: Poznan, Poland. In Pol.
Future population trends for the Polish city of Poznan are analyzed and projected up to the year 2015. In Chapter 1, the methods used to make the projections are described. Chapter 2 outlines the current population trends and hypotheses on which the projections are based. Three alternative projections are presented in Chapter 3. Extensive tables giving the projections by age and sex are provided.
Correspondence: Wydawnictwo Akademii Ekonomicznej w Poznaniu, ul. Powstancow Wielkopolskich 16, 60-967 Poznan, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10087 Monnier, Alain. The demographic construction of the European Union. [La construction démographique de l'Union européene.] Population et Sociétés, No. 330, Dec 1997. 7 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Demographic trends in the 15 countries that currently make up the European Union are analyzed over the period 1960-1995. Emphasis is on the current age and sex distribution of the populations of these countries and the implications for the future. The author concludes that by 2005, the population of these 15 countries will only grow by about 8 million, even taking immigration into account, and the combined populations of the five countries best placed to join the European Union in the near future will decline by about half a million over the same period.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10088 Münz, Rainer; Ulrich, Ralf. The future growth of the foreign population in Germany. Demographic projections to 2030. [Das zukünftige Wachstum der ausländischen Bevölkerung in Deutschland. Demographische Prognosen bis 2030.] Demographie Aktuell, No. 12, Nov 1997. iv, 68 pp. Humboldt-Universität zu Berlin, Philosophische Fakultät III, Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Lehrstuhl Bevölkerungswissenschaft: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
The authors review the history of Germany's foreign population from 1960 to 1996, including information on its origins, reasons for migration, guest-worker status, demographic characteristics, regional distribution, naturalization, and assimilation. The assumptions underlying the projections presented here are then outlined, and four alternative scenarios are described. Finally, the results of the projections are given and the potential political consequences are discussed.
Correspondence: Humboldt-Universität, Philosophische Fakultät III, Institut für Sozialwissenschaften, Lehrstuhl Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Unter den Linden 6, 10099 Berlin, Germany. Second author's E-mail: Ralf.Ulrich@sowi.hu-berlin.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10089 Silvestri, George T. Occupational employment projections to 2006. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 120, No. 11, Nov 1997. 58-83 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article compares the 1996-2006 projected changes in the structure of employment [in the United States] at the major occupational group level with the changes that occurred in the previous 10-year period, 1986-1996. It also identifies the detailed occupations that are projected to grow at the fastest rate, as well as those with the largest numerical increases, displaying the current educational requirements and earnings of the occupations in each of these growth categories. A discussion of the detailed occupations projected to have the largest employment declines follows. Also discussed are the total number of job openings projected to occur due to growth in the economy and the net replacement needs resulting from workers who leave the labor force or transfer to other occupations. The article concludes with a discussion of the distribution of employment in the base year (1996) and projected job openings by levels of education and earnings."
Correspondence: G. T. Silvestri, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (Docs).

64:10090 Spain. Instituto Nacional de Estadística [INE] (Madrid, Spain). Population projections for Spain based on data from the 1991 population census. [Proyecciones de la población de España calculadas a partir del censo de población de 1991.] ISBN 84-260-3096-3. 1995. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
These official projections of the population of Spain by age and sex are presented on three high-density 3.5-inch floppy disks. The first disk has projections for the whole country for the period 1990-2020; the second has projections for each province up to 2005; and the third has projections for the autonomous communities up to 2005. To run, they require 640 KB of RAM and 5 free megabytes on the hard drive ("C").
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Paseo de la Castellana 183, 28071 Madrid 16, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10091 Switzerland. Bundesamt für Statistik (Bern, Switzerland). The demographic challenge: prospects for Switzerland. Report of the Future Planning Section of the Federal government. The impact of demographic changes on various sectoral policies. [Le défi démographique: perspectives pour la Suisse. Rapport de l'Etat-major de prospective de l'administration fédérale. Incidences des changements démographiques sur différentes politiques sectorielles.] Statistique de la Suisse, ISBN 3-303-01074-9. 1996. 148 pp. Bundesamt für Statistik: Bern, Switzerland. In Fre.
This report gives an overview of the problems that current demographic trends in Switzerland could pose for the country's future economic, social, and ecological plans. The sectors considered include the economy, transport, the environment, energy, the use and organization of land, education, social security, and the democratic process. The report concludes by listing the main areas in which action needs to be taken.
Correspondence: Bundesamt für Statistik, Hallwylstrasse 15, 3003 Bern, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10092 Van Imhoff, Evert; Post, Wendy. Microsimulation methods for population projections. [Méthodes de micro-simulation pour des projections de population.] Population, Vol. 52, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1997. 889-932 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The use of microsimulation methods for making population projections is examined. "A particular problem in microsimulation results from the fact that the projections are subject to random variation. Various sources of random variations are examined but the most important is the one we refer to as specification randomness: the more explanatory variables are included in the model, the greater the degree of random variation affecting the output of the model. After a brief survey of the microsimulation models which exist in demography, a number of the essential characteristics of microsimulation are illustrated using the KINSIM model for projecting the future size and structure of kinship networks."
Correspondence: E. Van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

64:10093 Siddiqui, Farasat A. Population growth in Uttar Pradesh since 1872. Population Geography, Vol. 17, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1995. 37-48 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
"The present paper aims to analyse district-wise decadal growth of population in Uttar Pradesh [India] since 1872. It also attempts to identify population growth regions based on a suitable statistical technique. The spatio-temporal differentials are explained by the three interacting processes of birth, death and migration."
Correspondence: F. A. Siddiqui, Aligarh Muslim University, Department of Geography, Aligarh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

64:10094 Srinivasan, K. An overview of demographic transition in India since 1970. In: Population policy and reproductive health, edited by K. Srinivasan. 1996. 3-66 pp. Hindustan Publishing Corporation: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"In this article, I plan to provide an overview of the demographic transition by states since the `seventies, when the declines in fertility started in Kerala, the first of the Indian states to move into the final phases of the demographic transition. The analysis is carried out in terms of trends in population size, rate of growth, composition, urbanization, mortality and fertility and factors associated with these trends at the state level with a special attention to Kerala. I will confine my findings to those discerned from an analysis of data from the censuses, sample registration system and the official service statistics excluding those derived from various sample surveys...."
Correspondence: K. Srinivasan, Population Foundation of India, B-28 Qutab Institutional Area, New Delhi 110 016, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1998, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.