Volume 63 - Number 3 - Fall 1997

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

63:30766 Baccaïni, Brigitte; Courgeau, Daniel. Individual and aggregate approach: use of the Norwegian population register for the study of migration. [Approche individuelle et approche agrégée: utilisation du registre de population norvégien pour l'étude des migrations.] In: Spatial analysis of biodemographic data, edited by Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel, Daniel Courgeau, and Denise Pumain. 1996. 79-104 pp. John Libbey Eurotext: Montrouge, France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors demonstrate the use of a centralized population register for the study of migration at both the individual and aggregate level simultaneously. They use Norwegian data to present an example of this kind of multidimensional analysis.
Correspondence: B. Baccaïni, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: baccaini@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30767 Beckman, Richard J.; Baggerly, Keith A.; McKay, Michael D. Creating synthetic baseline populations. Transportation Research, Part A: Policy and Practice, Vol. 30, No. 6, Nov 1996. 415-29 pp. Exeter, England. In Eng.
"To develop activity-based travel models using microsimulation, individual travelers and households must be considered. Methods for creating baseline synthetic populations of households and persons using 1990 census data are given. Summary tables from the [U.S.] Census Bureau STF-3A are used in conjunction with the Public Use Microdata Sample (PUMS), and Iterative Proportional Fitting (IPF) is applied to estimate the proportion of households in a block group or census tract with a desired combination of demographics....It is shown that the joint distributions created by these methods do not differ substantially from the true values. Additionally the effects of small changes in the procedure, such as imputation of additional demographics and adding partial counts to the constructed demographic tables are discussed in the paper."
Correspondence: R. J. Beckman, Los Alamos National Laboratory, Statistics Group, Los Alamos, NM 87545. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

63:30768 Bocquet-Appel, Jean-Pierre; Courgeau, Daniel; Pumain, Denise. Spatial analysis of biodemographic data. [Analyse spatiale de données biodémographiques.] Congresses et Colloquia, No. 16, ISBN 2-7420-0152-2. 1996. ix, 367 pp. John Libbey Eurotext: Montrouge, France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Eng; Fre.
This book is the product of an interdisciplinary seminar on Spatial Analysis of Biodemographic Data held at the Sorbonne in Paris in July 1995. It consists of 18 papers in English or French by various authors on aspects of the analysis of biodemographic variables in their geographic context. "This book presents an overall picture of the methods that enable us to acquire a fuller understanding of the spatial distribution of these data and discusses the complexity of the interactions between individuals, groups, neighbourhoods, towns, regions and countries....The book looks at the suggested methods in terms of three methodological viewpoints: aggregating data at various levels; analysing spatial tracking and configurations; [and] dynamic modelling."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: John Libbey Eurotext, 127 avenue de la République, 92120 Montrouge, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30769 Decroly, Jean-Michel; Grasland, Claude. Spatial and territorial organization of demographic behaviors: a subjective approach. [Organisation spatiale et organisation territoriale des comportements démographiques: une approche subjective.] In: Spatial analysis of biodemographic data, edited by Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel, Daniel Courgeau, and Denise Pumain. 1996. 131-56 pp. John Libbey Eurotext: Montrouge, France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors examine two aspects of demographic behavior: its spatial organization, or the effect of the proximity of one place to another, and its territorial organization, or the effect of belonging to a specific geographical area. The authors use Belgian fertility data during the demographic transition (1846-1930) to demonstrate their approach.
Correspondence: J.-M. Decroly, Université Libre de Bruxelles, Département de Géographie, Campus de la Plaine, Boulevard du Triomphe, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30770 Frankhauser, Pierre. Fractal analysis, a new tool for the spatial analysis of urban patterns. [L'analyse fractale, un nouvel outil pour l'analyse spatiale des tissus urbains.] In: Spatial analysis of biodemographic data, edited by Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel, Daniel Courgeau, and Denise Pumain. 1996. 311-40 pp. John Libbey Eurotext: Montrouge, France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Fractal geometry is presented as a tool for analyzing patterns in the morphology of cities, which is characterized by complex irregularities and fragmentation. The author suggests that fractal analysis may reveal an underlying principle, or auto-organization, in the structure of urban agglomerations. The examples presented use data concerning cities in France and around the world.
Correspondence: P. Frankhauser, Université de Franche-Comté, IRADES, 30 rue Mégevand, 25030 Besançon, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30771 Guérin-Pace, France; Mathian, Hélène; Pumain, Denise; Sanders, Lena; Bura, Stéphane. Multi-agent systems for modeling the emergence of urban networks. [Les systèmes multi-agents pour modéliser l'émergence des réseaux urbains.] In: Spatial analysis of biodemographic data, edited by Jean-Pierre Bocquet-Appel, Daniel Courgeau, and Denise Pumain. 1996. 281-309 pp. John Libbey Eurotext: Montrouge, France; Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors elaborate an approach to modeling urban systems based on the notion of multi-agent systems, a concept pioneered by the field of distributed artificial intelligence. The aim is to reproduce the emergence of complex urban systems over the long term, and to create a dynamic model capable of simulating the passage of a population from villages to a hierarchical system of cities. The authors suggest that the multi-agent system approach is capable of integrating both quantitative and qualitative considerations, and is flexible enough to model the emergence of new structures and to analyze the phenomena of adaptation and auto-organization, with all their concomitant complexity. The computer model developed by the authors is called SimPop.
Correspondence: F. Guérin-Pace, Equipe Concepts et Méthodes en Démographie: Espace, Temps, Société, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. E-mail: guerin@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30772 Li, Lei; Choe, Minja K. A mixture model for duration data: analysis of second births in China. Demography, Vol. 34, No. 2, May 1997. 189-97 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"In this paper we introduce a mixture model in which we combine logistic regression and piecewise proportional hazards models for analysis of duration data. The model allows simultaneous estimation of two sets of effects of covariates: one of the probability of an event and the other of the timing of the event. We illustrate the application of the model through an analysis of the effects of women's characteristics and of the acceptance of a one-child certificate on the birth of second children in China. Both factors affect the probability of having a second child, but only the acceptance of a one-child certificate has a significant and strong effect on the second-birth interval."
Correspondence: L. Li, University of Hawaii at Manoa, Department of Urban and Regional Planning, Porteus Hall 107, 2424 Maile Way, Honolulu, HI 96822. E-mail: llei@hawaii.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30773 Nerlove, Marc; Raut, Lakshmi K. Growth models with endogenous population: a general framework. In: Handbook of population and family economics, edited by Mark R. Rosenzweig and Oded Stark. 1997. 1,117-74 pp. Elsevier Science Publishers: Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
In this chapter, the authors attempt to lay out a general framework for the elements of an economic theory of the demographic transition, to survey recent work in the new home economics and growth literatures, and to assess the linkages among stocks, flows, and rates of return in this context. They begin with a formal analysis of models of economic growth in which population is endogenous, including models developed by Solow and Swan, Niehans, Malthus, Boserup, and Lucas and Romer. They then examine models dealing with the microeconomics of endogenous population, involving fertility, mortality, and investment in children. These cover topics such as quality versus quantity; parental altruism and investment in human capital; survival probability, fertility, and investment in health care; transfers from children to parents and fertility (the old-age security motive); and two-sided altruism and transfers from children to parents.
Correspondence: M. Nerlove, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30774 Robinson, Warren C. The economic theory of fertility over three decades. Population Studies, Vol. 51, No. 1, Mar 1997. 63-74 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"After a promising start some three decades ago, the application of micro-economic analysis to fertility studies has proved disappointing. It has not led to an increased understanding of fertility decisions nor to the policy insights which had been expected. This paper considers the reasons for this disappointment. It reviews briefly the development of the now dominant version of the economic approach to fertility analysis, the so-called `Chicago Model'. It concludes that several basic conceptual and theoretical weaknesses of this approach have led it up a blind alley. The paper concludes with suggestions for new assumptions and approaches which may make the theory more relevant for policy programmes."
Correspondence: W. C. Robinson, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30775 Singh, Bhanu S. Methods for estimating demographic parameters at sub-national level. ISBN 81-7018-861-X. LC 96-901015. 1996. xix, 176 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
This book presents techniques for estimating demographic parameters at the subnational level in the absence of reliable vital statistics data. There are chapters on estimating infant and child mortality, expectation of life at birth, fertility, and quantum and tempo of fertility using birth order statistics. The geographical focus is on India.
Correspondence: B. R. Publishing, D. K. Publishers Distributors (P), A-6 Nimri Community Centre, Ashok Vihar, Phase IV, Delhi 110 052, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:30776 Wang, F.; Guldmann, J.-M. A spatial equilibrium model for region size, urbanization ratio, and rural structure. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 29, No. 5, May 1997. 929-41 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Earlier economic models of city size have either focused on urban agglomeration effects while ignoring the spatial structure of the rural hinterland, or made unrealistic assumptions (for example, uniform rural population distribution) so as to simplify the problem. Following the classic von Thünen framework, we present a two-sector spatial equilibrium model of a city located at the center of an agricultural hinterland. The city produces industrial goods, and the rural area produces agricultural goods. Both goods are consumed both by urban and by rural residents. Market equilibrium for these goods determines: (1) the spatial size of the region, (2) the urbanization ratio (urban to total population) and the population size of the city, and (3) the rural spatial structure (wage, population distribution, land rent, and agricultural yield). Given various sets of exogenous parameters pertaining to the industrial, agricultural, and transportation production functions and to population preferences, the model is solved numerically, and response functions are estimated and analyzed."
Correspondence: F. Wang, Northern Illinois University, Department of Geography, DeKalb, IL 60115. E-mail: wang@taiga.geog.niu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.