Volume 63 - Number 2 - Summer 1997

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations and Natural Resources

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

63:20378 Dunbabin, J. P. D. The demographic causes of the industrial revolution--some qualifications. Journal of European Economic History, Vol. 24, No. 2, Fall 1995. 405-10 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng.
The author comments on a recent article by Julian Simon on the relationship between population growth and economic development. Using examples from the British Isles and China, he suggests that Simon claims too much for population growth as a primary cause of economic development.
For the article by Simon, published in 1994, see 60:40637.
Correspondence: J. P. D. Dunbabin, University of Oxford, Saint Edmund Hall, Oxford OX1 4AR, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:20379 Easterlin, Richard A. Growth triumphant: the twenty-first century in historical perspective. Economics, Cognition, and Society, ISBN 0-472-10694-5. LC 96-4458. 1996. xiv, 200 pp. University of Michigan Press: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This book is about...two phenomena--modern economic growth and population growth. It analyzes their nature, causes, and effects; their interrelations; and the outlook for the future implied by past experience." Following a historical overview, the remainder of the book is divided into three parts. Part 1 focuses on modern economic growth. Part 2 examines population growth, including the nature and causes of the mortality revolution, the economic impact of rapid population growth, the nature and causes of the fertility transition, and the relation between a stagnant population and the economy in developed countries. Part 3 is concerned with the implications for the future. The author concludes that, if political upheaval can be successfully contained, economic growth will triumph everywhere: however, he cautions that this may prove to be a hollow victory.
Correspondence: University of Michigan Press, 639 Greene Street, P.O. Box 1104, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20380 van den Brekel, J. C.; Kuijsten, A. C.; Liefbroer, A. C.; Meijer, W. A. Population and development: aspects of the population problem around the world. [Bevolking en ontwikkeling: aspecten van het bevolkingsvraagstuk in de wereld.] Bevolking en Gezin, ISBN 90-709-9043-1. 1993. 133 pp. Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën [CBGS]: Brussels, Belgium; Nederlands Interdisciplinair Demografisch Instituut [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"On the occasion of its 65th birthday, the Netherlands Demographic Society, in co-operation with NIDI and the World Population Foundation, organized a conference on `Population and Development' in Amsterdam on the 25th of November, 1993. This conference formed part of the Netherlands' preparations for the International Conference on Population and Development (ICPD) in Caïro in 1994." This is a collection of articles presented at the conference. Chapters are included on the 1994 World Population Conference; population policy, sustainable development, and the war against poverty; population policy with women; international migration and sustainable development; and the aging of the world's population.
Correspondence: Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudiën, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

63:20381 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática. Dirección Técnica de Demografía y Estudios Sociales (Lima, Peru). The socioeconomic implications of population growth, 1995-2015. [Implicancias socio-económicas del crecimiento de la población, 1995-2015.] Pub. Order No. 307-95-SG-OEPI. Apr 1995. 65 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
This report examines the impact of projected trends in population growth in Peru up to the year 2015 on various key sectors of the country's development, including education, health, and the labor force.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística e Informática, General Garzón 654-658, Lima 11, Peru. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20382 Rofman, Alejandro. Demographic, social, and economic changes on the urban-regional level in contemporary Argentina: the impact of the model of prevailing accumulation. [Transformaciones demográficas, sociales y económicas en nivel urbano-regional en la Argentina contemporánea: el impacto del modelo de acumulación vigente.] Realidad Económica, No. 126, Aug-Sep 1994. 112-38 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
The author reviews demographic, social, and economic developments in Argentina from the 1970s to the early 1990s. Information is provided on rural-urban differentials, gross national product by province, income distribution, and employment.
Correspondence: A. Rofman, Universidad de Buenos Aires, Calle Viamonte 430/444, 1053 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

63:20383 Blanchet, Didier; Monfort, J. A. Pensions and generational histories in a simple demo-economic model. In: Seminar on intergenerational economic relations and demographic change: papers. [1996]. 1-38 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP], Commitee on Economic Demography: Liège, Belgium. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper proposes some simulations of the future of the French pension system according to different scenarios: no reform; reform as introduced in 1993, completed or not by the development of complementary funded pension schemes; [and] increase of the mean age at retirement. These simulations are realized in the context of a simple demo-economic model....Results show that scenarios derived from the 1993 reform mainly penalize older pensioners, and that a significant postponing of retirement age could remain compatible with the preservation of its average duration."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20384 Fodor, Eben V. The real cost of growth in Oregon. Population and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 4, Mar 1997. 373-88 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This study is an initial effort to provide a more complete understanding of the current costs of growth in Oregon....An analysis of seven public infrastructure cost areas associated with the construction of a typical single-family house--including public facilities for schools, sewer, storm drainage, roads, water service, parks and recreation, and fire protection--shows that the total cost is about $24,500 per house. Oregon's development impact fees are recovering only a fraction of these costs. As a result, most of these public infrastructure costs are distributed across the entire population of a community through property taxes or general obligation bonds, whereas the benefits of these investments accrue primarily to the new development."
Correspondence: E. V. Fodor, Energy and Environmental Planning Associates, 394 East 32nd Avenue, Eugene, OR 97405. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20385 Hurd, Michael D.; Yashiro, Naohiro. The economic effects of aging in the United States and Japan. A National Bureau of Economic Research Conference Report, ISBN 0-226-36100-4. LC 96-23921. 1997. viii, 362 pp. University of Chicago Press: Chicago, Illinois; National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
This volume consists of papers presented at a conference held in Hakone, Japan, in September, 1993. The focus of the papers is on both the micro- and macro-economic effects of population aging in Japan and the United States. The 14 papers are divided into sections on demography and the macroeconomic impact of aging; aging and asset markets; aging, household saving, and retirement; and public pension reform.
Correspondence: University of Chicago Press, 5801 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20386 Linder, Marc. The dilemmas of laissez-faire population policy in capitalist societies: when the invisible hand controls reproduction. Contributions in Economics and Economic History, No. 183, ISBN 0-313-30309-6. LC 96-32978. 1997. xvii, 354 pp. Greenwood Press: Westport, Connecticut. In Eng.
"From historical, economic, social, political, demographic, and legal perspectives this book studies the consequences for the labor markets of capitalist societies of their laissez-faire regime of human reproduction....The central thesis of the book is that the planlessness of the reproduction of the biological basis of the workforce is no more (but also no less) a problem for capitalism than its spontaneous market processes....Part I situates the discussion of the micro- and macroeconomic consequences of family size within the contemporary demographic debate....Part II analyzes the history of the theory and practice of invisible-hand Malthusianism....Part III focuses on the working-class or socialist response to Malthusianism...[and] Part IV brings the subject into the present and future."
Correspondence: Greenwood Press, 88 Post Road West, Box 5007, Westport, CT 06881. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20387 Ogawa, Naohiro; Retherford, Robert D. Shifting costs of caring for the elderly back to families in Japan: will it work? Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, Mar 1997. 59-94, 224, 226 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Over the next 30 years the percentage of Japan's population who are elderly will rise rapidly to unprecedented levels, and the country's population will become the oldest in the world. The financial pressures on Japan's social security system will be severe. To alleviate these pressures, the government is attempting to shift some of the costs of the social security system back to families. But fundamental economic, social, and value changes, discussed in this article, are eroding the capacity of the Japanese family to care for elderly parents. It is therefore unlikely that the government will succeed in shifting the costs appreciably."
Correspondence: N. Ogawa, Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 3-2 Misaki-cho, 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 102, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20388 Quénet, Jacques. Businesses and demography. [Entreprises et démographie.] Population et Avenir, No. 631, Jan-Feb 1997. 2-10 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This two-part article discusses the application of demographic concepts and methods to the management of human resources in large enterprises in both the public and private sectors. In the first part, the author concludes that the failure to integrate these concepts and methods is primarily due to lack of information, underestimation of their relevance, and failure to apply them appropriately. In the second part, he spells out how they could be applied better in the future, with particular regard to the concept of age distribution and understanding the future implications of the characteristics of the current workforce. The primary focus is on the situation in developed countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20389 Schmähl, Winfried. Migration and social security. On the necessity of a differentiated analysis: the example of statutory health and pension insurance. [Migration und soziale Sicherung. Über die Notwendigkeit einer differenzierten Betrachtung: das Beispiel der gesetzlichen Kranken- und Rentenversicherung.] Hamburger Jahrbuch für Wirtschafts- und Gesellschaftspolitik, Vol. 40, 1995. 247-71 pp. Tübingen, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"Statements about the effects of migration on social security or on the need for more immigrants to solve the future problems of social security financing are often based on rather global approaches towards the identification of such effects. In this paper it is argued that a differentiated analysis is necessary to obtain a realistic view of possible effects. This is exemplified for German statutory health and pension insurance. The lack of statistical data for quantitative analysis is also discussed. It cannot be decided whether more immigrants are `needed' by considering only the effects on social security. A comprehensive and comparative view is necessary, taking into account effects on other areas of social and economic life as well as the effects of other strategies for coping e.g. with the financing problems of social security."
Location: Cornell University Library, Ithaca, NY.

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

63:20390 Bender, William; Smith, Margaret. Population, food, and nutrition. Population Bulletin, Vol. 51, No. 4, Feb 1997. 48 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This Population Bulletin explores the factors that determine both the demand for and supply of food worldwide. The demand is determined primarily by the number of people, but it is also affected by the lifestyle and type of diet people adopt, and by the amount of food that is spoiled or wasted in food distribution and marketing systems. The food supply increased dramatically over the past few decades as high-yielding strains of wheat, rice, and other major staples were developed and disseminated in major agricultural regions, and more efficient farming methods were introduced. However, we do not know how much more yields can increase. The authors explore ways to increase yields...and discuss constraints on agricultural production, such as erosion and salinization of the soil. The authors also discuss the vital role of agricultural research and government policies in ensuring food security for the world."
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20391 Gaffin, Stuart R.; O'Neill, Brian C. Population and global warming with and without CO2 targets. Population and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 4, Mar 1997. 389-413 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The sensitivity of future global warming to variable population growth rates is reexamined as part of an ongoing debate over the extent to which climate change should be added to the list of concerns surrounding population growth. The UN 1992 low, medium and high population projections out to the year 2150 are run through an integrated climate-economics model which allows the effect of population variability to be traced through to [carbon dioxide] emissions, concentrations, warming and economic growth. We treat separately the cases of population's role in global warming, first without and then with specified atmospheric targets."
Correspondence: S. R. Gaffin, Environmental Defense Fund, Global Atmosphere Program, 257 Park Avenue South, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20392 Heilig, Gerhard K. Anthropogenic factors in land-use change in China. Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, Mar 1997. 139-68, 225, 227 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The author analyzes five anthropogenic driving forces of land-use change in China: population growth, urbanization, industrialization, changes in lifestyles and consumption, and shifts in political and economic arrangements and institutions. The intention is to demonstrate the broad range of factors other than biogeophysical conditions that will affect future land-use patterns in China. A first set of statistical data was collected to analyze these demographic and socioeconomic trends. The author also includes new estimates on China's cultivated land area, indicating that it is more seriously under-reported in official statistics than previously acknowledged."
Correspondence: G. K. Heilig, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20393 Maher, T. Michael. How and why journalists avoid the population-environment connection. Population and Environment, Vol. 18, No. 4, Mar 1997. 339-72 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Recent surveys show that Americans are less concerned about population than they were 25 years ago, and they are not connecting environmental degradation to population growth. News coverage is a significant variable affecting public opinion, and how reporters frame a problem frequently signals what is causing the problem. Using a random sample of 150 stories about urban sprawl, endangered species and water shortages, Part I of this study shows that only about one story in 10 framed population growth as a source of the problem. Further, only one story in the entire sample mentioned population stability among the realm of possible solutions. Part II presents the results of interviews with 25 journalists whose stories on local environmental problems omitted the causal role of population growth. It shows that journalists are aware of the controversial nature of the population issue, and prefer to avoid it if possible. Most interviewees said that a national phenomenon like population growth was beyond the scope of what they could write as local reporters."
Correspondence: T. M. Maher, University of Southwestern Louisiana, Department of Communication, P.O. Box 43650, Lafayette, LA 70504-3650. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20394 Naylor, Rosamond; Falcon, Walter; Zavaleta, Erika. Variability and growth in grain yields, 1950-94: does the record point to greater instability? Population and Development Review, Vol. 23, No. 1, Mar 1997. 41-58, 223-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"The outcome of the `race' between population and food is of enduring contemporary interest....This article assesses the growth and variability of corn, wheat, and rice yields from 1950 to 1994 on a global and regional basis. The results suggest that any broadly held notions of greatly increasing instability in global grain yields are probably wrong. More important, yield variability has not risen significantly between 1950 and 1994 in the developing world as a whole. Instability in corn yields has increased, however, in the developed world--particularly in North America--and in Africa. Higher yield variability is not necessarily a portent of disaster, but adjustments in trade, livestock, or storage are not instantaneous, automatic, or costless. Even world-food `optimists' need to worry about the possible effects of two or three successive `bad' corn crops in North America."
Correspondence: R. Naylor, Stanford University, Institute for International Studies, Stanford, CA 94305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20395 Osuntogun, Adeniyi; Adewuyi, Alfred. Population and the Nigerian environment. ISBN 978-32591-0-5. 1994. vii, 129 pp. Foundation for Environmental Development and Education in Nigeria: Lagos, Nigeria. In Eng.
The eight papers included in this publication are selected from contributions read at a seminar on population and the Nigerian environment. There are papers on theoretical aspects of the relationship between population and the environment, policy options regarding development issues, health, employment, women's issues, urbanization, population dynamics, and sustainable development.
Correspondence: Foundation for Environmental Development and Education in Nigeria, 8 Thorburn Avenue, Yaba, P.O. Box 664, Yaba, Lagos, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20396 van Imhoff, Evert. Population and environment: demographic aspects of sustainable development. [Bevolking en milieu: demografische aspecten van duurzame ontwikkeling.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1994. 109-28 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The topic `population and environment' is apparently a very sensitive issue. This paper is an attempt to bridge the gap between the adherents of extreme positions in the debate, by simultaneously incorporating demography and economy in a global analysis of environmental problems. This is done by means of a strongly simplified analytic diagram....The paper then addresses the question whether continuing population growth is compatible with sustainable development, and the question whether a sustainable world population level exists. The conclusion is, that sustainable development can be achieved only with drastic modifications in both the current pattern of economic behaviour and the current demographic developments."
Correspondence: E. van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20397 Warner, Stanley; Feinstein, Mark; Coppinger, Raymond; Clemence, Elisabeth. Global population growth and the demise of nature. Environmental Values, Vol. 5, No. 4, 1996. 285-302 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"We suggest that current trends in population growth are unlikely to abate for three reasons: first, there are intrinsic biological pressures to reproduce regardless of social engineering; second, the character of the domestic alliance makes it a formidable competitor to wildlife; and third, the time frame before population doubling is, from a biological perspective, virtually instantaneous. This paper draws from a wide body of research in the biological and social sciences. We neither condone nor endorse this picture of inexorable population increase. Rather, we appeal for a change in the nature of the discussion of population among environmentalists, to focus on the question of how best to manage what wildlife will be left on the margins of a domesticated world."
Correspondence: S. Warner, Hampshire College, Amherst, MA 01002. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

63:20398 Bailey, Adrian J. Migration and unemployment duration among young adults. Papers in Regional Science, Vol. 73, No. 3, Jul 1994. 289-307 pp. Urbana, Illinois. In Eng.
"The relationship between migration and unemployment duration is examined. Standard job search predictors of spell length (replacement income, labor force experience, personal characteristics and economic conditions) are included as control variables alongside measures of migration in a Weibull hazard model. The model is estimated using data from the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey of Youth. Young adults who migrated while unemployed had longer durations of unemployment than those who did not migrate. The rate at which they found jobs was also linked to how long they had been unemployed, to being laid off, being African American, to going to college, having a mortgage and to national unemployment conditions."
Correspondence: A. J. Bailey, Dartmouth College, Department of Geography, Hanover, NH 03755. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

63:20399 Blanchet, Didier; Pennec, Sophie. Is the rise in the female participation rate linked to fertility rate trends? [Hausse de l'activité féminine: quels liens avec l'évolution de la fécondité?] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 95-104, 124-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
The relationship between female labor force participation and fertility in France is examined using a model that does not accentuate any of the various interdependencies involved. "The application of this model reveals the driving role of preference for work over an intrinsic disinclination for large families. This theory is compatible with an important characteristic in the development of the female participation rate: the fact that it has risen sharply across all family sizes, all things being equal elsewhere. The same finding results from an analysis of demographic and working behaviour based on the mother's level of qualifications."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20400 Blanchet, Didier; Marioni, Pierre. Work after age 55: recent trends and forecast elements. [L'activité après 55 ans: évolutions récentes et éléments de prospective.] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 105-18, 124-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
Labor force participation in France of those aged over 55 years is analyzed in this article. "The drop in the participation rate in later years is a longterm trend found in most developed countries. It is a common method for reducing working hours over an entire life cycle and has been made possible by the growth in productivity and the development of pension schemes. However, the phenomenon grew in the mid-1970s, especially in France, due to the growth in early retirement and end-of-career unemployment and also the lowering of the legal retirement age. The participation rate in France is now very low after sixty and is one of the lowest in Europe for the 55-to-59-year-old age bracket."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20401 Bourdallé, Georges; Cases, Chantal. Participation rates for those aged 25 to 60: age and generation effects. [Les taux d'activités des 25-60 ans: les effets de l'âge et de la génération.] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 83-93, 123-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
Labor force participation for those aged 25 to 60 in France is analyzed over the period 1975 to 1994. "Over these two decades, female participation rates rose sharply, particularly among the young and intermediate age groups and the least qualified. At the same time, the overall male participation rate dropped slightly due mainly to more frequent retirement at the end of working life and among the least qualified. An econometric analysis of female participation rates shows, in contrast to the men, an extensive change in working patterns between generations. The sharp rise in participation rates for the generations born from the 1930s to the 1960s has only been slightly tempered by the relative economic downturn posted after 1977."
Correspondence: C. Cases, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division Revenus et Patrimoine des Ménages, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20402 Brondel, Daniel. Changes in the French working population in a European context. [L'évolution de la population active française dans le contexte européen.] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 55-70, 123-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
Recent trends in the dynamics of the population of working age in France are analyzed and compared to those in other countries in the European Union. "Since the early 1980s, growth in the French working population has been slower and demographic growth higher than in the other European Union countries. This trend can be explained by the sharp downturn in activity in France. The drop in employment among young people and the oldest potential workers is partially due to labour market adjustments specific to France. The French working population is now highly concentrated in the intermediate age brackets. The proportion of women in this population is also growing, with France having one of the highest female participation rates in the European Union." The author concludes that the relatively healthy demographic trends in France should lead to fewer problems in the future development of the labor force in comparison with some other European countries, provided that the problems in finding work for younger workers and those approaching retirement can be solved.
Correspondence: D. Brondel, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Division Emploi, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20403 Gould, M. I.; Fieldhouse, E. Using the 1991 Census SAR in a multilevel analysis of male unemployment. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 29, No. 4, Apr 1997. 611-28 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The Sample of Anonymised Records drawn from the 1991 [United Kingdom] Census is used to model geographical, demographic, and socioeconomic variations in male unemployment by means of multilevel logit models. The underlying structure of the problem is such that cells in a multiway cross-tabulation of individual characteristics (level 1) are nested within places (level 2). Geographical variations in male unemployment are found even after allowing for age, marital status, ethnicity, higher education qualifications, social class, and industry."
Correspondence: M. I. Gould, University of Portsmouth, Department of Geography, Buckingham Building, Lion Terrace, Portsmouth PO1 3HE, England. E-mail: gouldm@geog.port.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

63:20404 Guillemot, Danièle. The working population: a statistical category that is hard to define. [La population active: une catégorie statistique difficile à cerner.] Economie et Statistique, No. 300, Oct 1996. 39-53, 123-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.
The author examines some of the definitions that have been used to define the working population in France. "The working population resulting from censuses and related statistical sources is based on individuals' spontaneous statements. Its content does not match up exactly with the working population defined by the ILO, which seeks to estimate the labour force available for production. Therefore, certain categories such as `discouraged male job-seekers' (160,000 in March 1995), `revealed female job-seekers' (housewives who would prefer to work) (130,000) and `trainees' (120,000) are considered by the census definition to be in the working population, but are deemed unoccupied by the ILO definition." The author stresses the need to clarify and limit the statistical categories used, so that better forecasts of the future working population can be prepared and the prospects for drawing international comparisons and conducting behavioral analyses can be increased.
Correspondence: D. Guillemot, Commissariat Général du Plan, Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20405 Guillon, Michelle. Foreigners and naturalized French citizens: a slow social diversification (1982-1990). [Etrangers et français par acquisition, une lente diversification sociale (1982-1990).] Revue Européenne des Migrations Internationales, Vol. 12, No. 2, 1996. 123-48 pp. Poitiers, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Two decades of economic recession have brought about profound transformations in the social structure of France's working population. In this article we focused on an analysis of socioprofessional statistics from the censuses of 1982 and 1990 (the first ones to use the new terminology) as means of understanding the role and status in these developments of populations produced by immigration. The social gap between working people of foreign origin and the birthright French remains quite considerable. Nevertheless, despite the economic situation, the social homogeneity of the minority population seems to be fading. Although the great majority of working people from a foreign background are still employed in low-echelon industrial and service jobs, there is a tendency for this homogeneity to blur slightly."
Correspondence: M. Guillon, Université de Poitiers, UMR MIGRINTER-IERS, CNRS, 95 avenue du Recteur-Pineau, 86022 Poitiers Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20406 Kowalska, Anna. Projecting labour force supply and demand (current experiences of Central Statistical Office of Poland). Polish Population Review, No. 9, 1996. 119-30 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author presents recent projections of the labor force in Poland. Aspects considered include the reliability of both supply and demand projections; trends for urban and rural areas; the aging of the labor force; public and private sector employment prospects; occupations; and government opinion.
Correspondence: A. Kowalska, Central Statistical Office, Department of Labour, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20407 Mahmud, Simeen. The role of women's employment programmes in influencing fertility regulation in rural Bangladesh. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 22, No. 2-3, Jun-Sep 1994. 93-119 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
The author explores the extent to which participation in employment programs can reduce fertility in rural areas of Bangladesh. Data are used from four such programs, two of which were governmental and two of which were in the private sector. "Using a quasi-experimental design comprising...programme participating women and a comparison group of non-participants, [the author] seeks to identify factors related to women's work context that are important in determining contraceptive use. The paper finds that changes in women's work context in terms of higher returns to labour, increased access to extra-family support and greater mobility outside the home are most strongly associated with the increased use of modern contraceptives among rural women residing in intervention areas."
Correspondence: S. Mahmud, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Adamjee Court, Motijheel Commercial Area, Dhaka-2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

63:20408 Marcelli, Enrico A.; Heer, David M. Unauthorized Mexican workers in the 1990 Los Angeles County labour force. International Migration, Vol. 35, No. 1, 1997. 59-83 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"By analysing how unauthorized Mexicans compare with seven other ethno-racial groups in Los Angeles County, separately and collectively, by educational attainment and time spent in the U.S., we find that unauthorized Mexicans had relatively fewer years of formal education (either in the U.S. or in Mexico) and had been in the U.S. a relatively fewer number of years than in-migrants of other ethno-racial backgrounds in 1990. These findings are then used as proxies to compare the human capital endowments of different ethno-racial groups. We next estimate the number of unauthorized Mexicans by occupation, industry and class of worker, and compare these distributions with the total labour force and with the other ethno-racial groups in Los Angeles County....Results show that amounts of human capital are positively related to the kinds of occupations filled."
Correspondence: E. A. Marcelli, University of Southern California, Department of Economics, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0035. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20409 Mertens, Noortje; van Doorne-Huiskes, Anneke; Schippers, Joop; Siegers, Jacques. Mothers' low labor force participation in the Netherlands: cultural norms versus lack of facilities. [De lage arbeidsmarktparticipatie van moeders in Nederland: culturele normen versus gebrek aan faciliteiten.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 1, 1995. 49-78 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"In this article we discuss several explanations put forward to account for the low level of women's labour market participation in the Netherlands....The explanations for women's low participation in the labour market can be divided into two broad categories. Explanations belonging to the first category stress the importance of women's traditional activity-patterns, based on the economic principle of a male breadwinner earning enough money to provide for his wife and children, and social and cultural norms with respect to combining being a mother and raising a family on the one hand and earning an income in the labour market on the other. The second category includes explanations pointing to restrictions following from the lack of adequate facilities to combine a career as a mother with a career in the labour market....The article will discuss the relevance of both explanations for the situation of women in the Netherlands for the mid-nineties and discuss policy measures suitable to improve this situation."
Correspondence: N. Mertens, Universiteit Utrecht, Economisch Institut/Centrum voor Interdisciplinair Onderzoek van Arbeidsmarkt- en Verdelingsvraagstukken, Kromme Nieuwegracht 22, 3512 HH Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20410 Nowakowska, Barbara; Kowaleski, Jerzy T. Labour force. Outlook to the year 2020 according to the current Central Statistical Office forecast. Polish Population Review, No. 9, 1996. 96-118 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
"The paper deals with the changes in the number and structure of population of working age in Poland and by voivodeships to the year 2020 as presented by the most current demographic forecast of the Central Statistical Office. The period 1995-2020 is going to be characterised, in its first stage, by a serious increase in the number of population of working age and then, after the year 2010, the size of this group will considerably contract....The changes flagged will vary geographically."
Correspondence: B. Nowakowska, University of Lódz, ul. Rewolucji 1905 r. No. 41, Lódz, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20411 Rönsen, Marit; Sundström, Marianne. Women's return to work after first birth in the Nordic countries--full or part time? Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 112, ISBN 91-7820-144-6. Jan 1997. 27, [1] pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The Nordic countries are characterized by high employment rates among mothers with young children and by relatively high fertility rates compared to many other European countries. Hence, Nordic women have to a large extent adopted strategies that accommodate both children and paid work. In this paper we investigate such strategies, comparing the return to full-time and part-time work among first-time mothers in three Nordic countries--Norway, Sweden and Finland--in 1968-88....We use data from three surveys with almost identical designs: the 1988 Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey, the 1992 Swedish Family Survey and the 1989 Finnish Population Survey. In particular we investigate to what extent the country differences in reentry into full-time and part-time work are the result of differences in policy, in responses to similar policies, or in other factors."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Author's E-mail: Marianne.Sundstrom@suda.su.se. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20412 Roy, Arun S. Job displacement effects of Canadian immigrants by country of origin and occupation. International Migration Review, Vol. 31, No. 1, Spring 1997. 150-61 pp. Staten Island, New York. In Eng.
"Some previous Canadian studies have shown that considering the labor market as a whole and also pooling all immigrants as a group, immigrants do not have any job displacement effects on the Canadian born. This study presents some new evidence. It disaggregates immigrants by country of origin and by occupation groups and provides an analysis of job displacement effects of immigrants on the native-born Canadians by these dimensions. The study finds that (1) U.S. immigrants and the Canadians are substitutes [for] competing groups in the labor market and the effect is quite significant; (2) Canadians and Europeans are competing groups in certain occupations, while they have complementary skills in others; and (3) immigrants from the Third World and the Canadians are slightly competing groups in certain occupations."
Correspondence: A. S. Roy, Human Resources Development Canada, Ottawa, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20413 Sassen, Saskia. New employment regimes in cities: the impact on immigrant workers. New Community, Vol. 22, No. 4, Oct 1996. 579-94 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng.
"The major cities of highly developed countries exhibit marked changes in job supplies and employment relations. It is frequently held that post-industrial societies require plentiful supplies of highly educated workers and will hold no openings for the low skilled. It is this latter category of jobs that immigrants have tended to fill in recent decades. Empirical data on major cities in advanced economies negate this supposition, revealing that there is an ongoing demand for immigrant labour and a continuing stream of employment opportunities which do not require high educational levels and which pay low wages. The article examines whether this job supply is merely a residue, to some extent augmented by the supply of low wage workers themselves, or whether it is a feature of a reconfigured labour market in advanced urban economies, i.e. a systemic development."
Correspondence: S. Sassen, Columbia University, School of International and Public Affairs, Department of Urban Planning, Morningside Heights, New York, NY 10027. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20414 Wise, David A. Retirement against the demographic trend: more older people living longer, working less, and saving less. Demography, Vol. 34, No. 1, Feb 1997. 83-95 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"I have illustrated that Social Security and employer-provided pension plans provide substantial incentive to leave the labor force early. The quantitative effect of this inducement is illustrated by simulating the effects of changes in pension plan and Social Security provisions on the retirement decisions of employees in a large [U.S.] firm, who are covered by a typical defined benefit pension plan. Scheduled Social Security changes would have little effect on the retirement decisions of employees with a typical defined benefit pension plan like the one considered here. But if the pension plan provisions were changed to correspond to the Social Security changes, the effect would be very large. And, although not contemplated by current legislation, it is clear that an increase in the Social Security early retirement age would have a substantial effect on the early retirement rates of the large number of employees not covered by a pension plan."
Correspondence: D. A. Wise, Harvard University, National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. E-mail: dwise@nber.harvard.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

63:20415 Zgierska, Agnieszka. Forecast of labour force in Poland to the year 2020: methodology and results. Polish Population Review, No. 9, 1996. 75-95 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
"In 1995 the Labour Statistics Division of the Central Statistical Office (CSO) started methodological work on the preparation of a forecast of the labour force in Poland to the year 2020....Variant `intermediate' assumes a slow reconstruction of the economic activity of population from the level of the period 1978-88 (census 1978 and census 1988). The main part of this `reconstruction' will take place in the years 1995-2010. The greatest anticipated changes concern youths (18-24 years), persons of immobility age (males 45-64 years and females 45-59 years) and the first groups of the retirement age. Variant `maximum' assumes that the anticipated `reconstruction' labour force participation rate will be faster (compared with variant `intermediate')."
Correspondence: A. Zgierska, Central Statistical Office, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.