Volume 62 - Number 4 - Winter 1996

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

62:40727 Behar, Cem L. The Reverend Jean-Louis Muret (1715-1796): from depopulation controversy to demographic analysis. [Le pasteur Jean-Louis Muret (1715-1796): de la controverse sur la dépopulation à l'analyse démographique.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 3, May-Jun 1996. 609-44 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The demographic work of the Swiss minister, Jean-Louis Muret...remains a significant contribution to `political arithmetic'. His sound study of the population of the Vaud region, published in 1766, ranks Muret among the leading demographers of the eighteenth century. He was responsible for a number of technical innovations. He calculated the first [life] table for women by marital status, using the double entry for single women. Together with Struyck he was the first to break down the life table during the first year of life into months, and the first month further into weeks. He was also the first to construct `standardized' demographic indices using yearly deaths, marriages and baptisms and was, therefore, a pioneer in using crude birth, marriage and death rates."
Correspondence: C. L. Behar, Bogaziçi Üniversitesi, 80815 Bebek, Istanbul, Turkey. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40728 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelièvre, Eva. Shifting the paradigm in demography. [Changement de paradigme en démographie.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 3, May-Jun 1996. 645-54 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"The classical paradigm in demography states that only one demographic process can be studied at a time....Such a conceptual stand forbids the study of multiple processes, [whether] interactive or competing, and necessitates the decomposition of the initial population into an ever increasing number of homogeneous sub-groups. As the size of each sub-population gets smaller, it [quickly] becomes impossible to conduct a valid analysis. A change of paradigm is therefore inevitable to conduct a study of interacting processes and an exploration of the heterogeneity of a population. This new approach deals with individual life courses in a greater complexity, [with] each new development being dependent on the past experience and the information available to individuals. This new paradigm has opened the way to life event history analysis, in place for already 15 years."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40729 Ghilagaber, Gebrenegus. Analysis of survival data with single and multiple causes of failure: applications in family demography. Oct 1996. 41, 31 pp. Uppsala Universitet, Department of Statistics: Uppsala, Sweden. In Eng.
This thesis consists of two related studies involving hazard-rate models. Using the example of the correlates of marital dissolution, the first study explores similarities among a number of models for the rate of occurrence of an event and for the duration until the occurrence. The second study focuses on the analysis of survival data with more than one cause of failure, using the example of the influence of socio-demographic characteristics on the rate of family initiation, and more particularly, on the choice of marriage and cohabitation in first unions. Official data from Sweden are used to illustrate the concepts studied.
Correspondence: Uppsala University, Department of Statistics, P.O. Box 513, 751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40730 Kim, Young J.; Schoen, Robert. Populations with quadratic exponential growth. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996. 19-33, 67 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Here we examine dynamic-hyperstable-models with increasing or decreasing vital rates, providing the first detailed analysis of a closed form model of monotonic demographic change. Using two different approaches, we demonstrate how exponentiated quadratic birth trajectories are related to exponentially increasing vital rates. Focusing on the plausible assumption of a fixed proportional distribution of births by age of mother, we show how convergence to hyperstability parallels convergence to classical stability. Our analysis focuses on net maternity rates, allowing considerable flexibility in patterns of change in either fertility or mortality. Under the assumption of constant mortality over time, we specify the hyperstable population's age structure and its relationship to its associated stable population at every point in time."
Correspondence: Y. J. Kim, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40731 Marchetti, Cesare; Meyer, Perrin S.; Ausubel, Jesse H. Human population dynamics revisited with the logistic model: how much can be modeled and predicted? Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Vol. 52, No. 1, May 1996. 1-30 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"We revive the logistic model, which was tested and found wanting in early-20th-century studies of aggregate human populations, and apply it instead to life expectancy (death) and fertility (birth)....For death...the logistic portrays the situation crisply. Human life expectancy is reaching the culmination of a two-hundred year-process that forestalls death until about 80 for men and the mid 80s for women. No breakthroughs in longevity are in sight unless genetic engineering comes to help. For birth, the logistic covers quantitatively its actual morphology. However, because we have not been able to model this essential parameter in a predictive way over long periods, we cannot say whether the future of human population is runaway growth or slow implosion...From a niche point of view, resources are the limits to numbers, and access to resources depends on technologies. The logistic makes clear that for homo faber, the limits to numbers keep shifting. These moving edges may most confound forecasting the long-run size of humanity."
Correspondence: J. H. Ausubel, Rockefeller University, Program for the Human Environment, 1230 York Avenue, New York, NY 10021-6399. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:40732 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young J. Stabilization, birth waves, and the surge in the elderly. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996. 35-53, 67 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
This study examines the transition of a population to stability following a shift to a new fixed set of vital rates. Specifically, the authors develop a simple discrete population model and use it to derive an explicit solution for the birth trajectory. "The new vital rates interact with the population's initial age composition and generate birth waves whose amplitude and attenuation depend on the ratio of ultimate to initial growth and on the new pattern of stable net maternity. A greater change in growth and a later stable net maternity pattern produce larger fluctuations in the number of births. Stabilization begins at the youngest ages and proceeds upward. Sixty years after the shift, the birth waves have largely disappeared and the proportion under age 15 approximates the stable level implied by the new rates. Those patterns are manifest in the stabilization of both observed and Coale-Demeny model stable populations."
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40733 Wéry, René. Demo-economic modeling: the experience of the Bachue models. [Modélisation démo-économique: l'expérience des modèles Bachue.] Population et Développement, No. 4, ISBN 2-87209-421-0. 1996. 215 pp. Academia-Bruylant: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; L'Harmattan: Paris, France; Centre International de Formation et de Recherche en Population et Développement [CIDEP]: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
This volume contains a selection of articles, some of which have been previously published, on the Bachue models, which were developed by the International Labour Organization during the 1970s and 1980s as a tool for integrating demographic variables into the development planning process in developing countries. These models were developed to study the relationships between population growth and spatial distribution in the context of socioeconomic development, employment growth, income distribution, and poverty. The reasons for abandoning efforts to build development models along these lines are also discussed.
Correspondence: Bruylant-Academia, 25/115 Grand Rue, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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