Volume 62 - Number 4 - Winter 1996

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

62:40072 Anderson, Michael. British population history, 1911-1991. In: British population history: from the Black Death to the present day, edited by Michael Anderson. 1996. 359-409 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This is a history of population developments in Britain from 1911 to 1991. There are sections on population trends in general, mortality, fertility and nuptiality, and the economic and social implications of demographic change.
Correspondence: M. Anderson, University of Edinburgh, Department of Economic History, Edinburgh EH8 9YL, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40073 Popov, V. P. Regional demographic characteristics in Russia in the 1940s. [Regional'nye osobennosti demograficheskogo polozheniya RSFSR v 40-e gody.] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 4, 1996. 58-66 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
An analysis of population trends in Russia during the 1940s is presented. The author examines differences in the rates of population growth and in the spatial distribution of the population by region, area, and autonomous republic. Differences between rural and urban areas are also noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:40074 Zhang, Lingguang; Jiang, Zhenghua. Analyzing the prospect of population development in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1996. 1-11 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article analyzes...population development in China...over the past 20 years. It projects the future of population development in China and proposes corresponding policies."
Correspondence: L. Zhang, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Population Research Institute, 5 Jianguomen Nei Da Jie 5 Hao, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

62:40075 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Total population and population of Belgian nationality on January 1, 1996. [Population totale et belge au 1.1.1996.] Statistiques Démographiques, No. 1A, 1996. 239 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates of the total and Belgian nationality populations are presented by sex, age, and marital status for the whole country and for its regions, provinces, and communes.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40076 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography Division (Ottawa, Canada). Revised intercensal population and family estimates, July 1, 1971-1991. [Estimations intercensitaires révisées de la population et des familles au 1er juillet, 1971-1991.] Pub. Order No. 91-537. ISBN 0-660-54899-2. Jul 1994. x, 749 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
These are revised estimates of the population of Canada for the period 1971-1991, which take into account the decision made in 1993 to incorporate net census undercoverage in the population estimates program. "This publication is composed of three parts: the first part...[presents] the major features of the demographic evolution between 1971 and 1991,...discusses sources of data and methods, and offers a brief evaluation of the quality of the data presented....The second part...[includes] explanatory tables dealing with the quality of the estimates; tables presenting the population estimates by age, sex, and marital status for Canada, provinces and territories from 1971 to 1991; tables providing the total population and components of population growth for divisions and census metropolitan areas, from 1986 to 1991; and finally, tables covering census families from 1986 to 1991. In the third part, the reader will find a bibliography, information concerning the availability in electronic form of the data...and a dictionary covering the principal demographic concepts."
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40077 Demeny, Paul. World population growth: trends and prospects, 1960-2020. In: Resources and population: natural, institutional, and demographic dimensions of development, edited by Bernardo Colombo, Paul Demeny, and Max F. Perutz. 1996. 25-47 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Using mostly United Nations estimates, [the author] outlines salient features of the most recent trends in global population growth and considers the determinants and likely future evolution of these trends. The focus of the discussion is on the six decades centered on 1990. Comments on demographic change in a more remote past and glimpses to more distant demographic futures are also offered to place the period 1960-2020 into a broader perspective....The discussion begins with comments on the demographic transition--a descriptive device that summarizes some common patterns of mortality and fertility that have driven population change over time in the modern era. This is followed by a description of recent regional trends in population growth and its main proximate determinants, mortality and fertility. The concluding sections interpret these trends and consider future population prospects."
Correspondence: P. Demeny, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40078 Macau. Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e Censos (Macau). Estimates of the resident population of Macau, December 31, 1994. [Estimativas da população residente de Macau para 31 de dezembro de 1994.] Jul 1995. 106 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
Population estimates are presented by age and sex for Macau for 1994. The estimates are used to calculate revised projections of the population up to the year 2000.
Correspondence: Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e Censos, Rua Inácio Baptista 4D-6, 3 andar, Macau. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40079 McDevitt, Thomas M. World population profile: 1996. No. WP/96, ISBN 0-16-048732-3. Jul 1996. v, 88, [96] pp. U.S. Agency for International Development [USAID]: Washington, D.C.; U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report presents updates of the U.S. Census Bureau's "population estimates and projections for all the countries and regions of the world. It includes information on population composition, population growth, fertility, mortality, and use of contraception. A special section focuses on adolescent fertility in the developing world."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop: SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-9328. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40080 Sommer, Bettina. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1994. [Eheschließungen, Geburten und Sterbefälle 1994.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 6, Jun 1996. 351-6 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Information is presented on marriages, births, deaths, life expectancy, and stillbirths in Germany in 1994. Special attention is given to comparisons between the former East and West Germany. Some data for earlier years are also provided.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

62:40081 Steenkamp, H. A. Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district and province, 1996. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 230, ISBN 0-947459-73-1. 1996. ix, 72 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population estimates for South Africa and its regions and districts are presented for 1996 using data from various official sources, including the 1991 census. The estimates are presented separately for the four main ethnic groups.
For previous estimates for 1995, see 61:30095.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, P.O. Box 392, 0001 Pretoria, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40082 Toucan Valley Publications (Milpitas, California). American population change annual. 2nd ed. ISBN 1-884925-06-5. 1996. ix, 380 pp. Milpitas, California. In Eng.
This publication is designed as a supplement to decennial U.S. census publications, and provides population estimates for local areas and information on population changes since 1990. Data are provided down to the county level or local equivalent.
Correspondence: Toucan Valley Publications, 142 N. Milpitas Boulevard, Suite 260, Milpitas, CA 95035. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

62:40083 Bomsdorf, Eckart. Life table for the 2000 cohort: modeling approaches, model calculations, sensitivity considerations, and economic consequences. [Kohortensterbetafel 2000: Modellierungsansätze, Modellrechnungen, Sensitivitätsbetrachtungen und ökonomische Konsequenzen.] In: Sterblichkeitsentwicklung--unter besonderer Berücksichtigung des Kohortenansatzes, edited by Reiner H. Dinkel, Charlotte Höhn, and Rembrandt D. Scholz. 1996. 67-88 pp. R. Oldenbourg Verlag: Munich, Germany; Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
This article explores the question of German mortality in future cohorts. The example of the 1996 cohort is used to present a model, its underlying assumptions, and the results of the extrapolation. The economic consequences are also discussed. Decreased mortality has strong effects on the age structure and consequently on social costs. Periodic life tables are of only limited usefulness for population projections and for the calculation of life, retirement, and health insurance, since they provide no information about future developments.
Correspondence: E. Bomsdorf, Universität zu Köln, Fakultät für Wirtschaft und Sozialwissenschaften, 5000 Cologne, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40084 Brahimi, Rabah. Demography: population projections, 1990-2020. [Démographie: projections de population, 1990-2020.] Collections Statistiques, No. 66, 1994. 73 pp. Office National des Statistiques: Algiers, Algeria. In Fre.
This publication has chapters on population trends in Algeria as a whole, population characteristics, and the urban population. It includes statistical tables presenting population estimates and alternative projections by wilaya (district) from 1990 to 2020.
Correspondence: Office National des Statistiques, 8-10 Rue des Moussebiline, Algiers, Algeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40085 Cleland, John. Population growth in the 21st century: cause for crisis or celebration? Tropical Medicine and International Health, Vol. 1, No. 1, Feb 1996. 15-26 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Between now and the end of the next century, the population of the planet is projected to grow from 5.7 billion to somewhere between 9 and 16 billion. In the next 25 years, continued rapid growth is inescapable because of the youthful age structures of many countries. Beyond that point much depends on fertility trends in the coming decades. Continued population growth does not make inevitable any global catastrophe but it will exacerbate greatly problems of underemployment. The prognosis for further fertility declines is good, because the communications revolution is hastening the spread of new ideas and political attitudes are becoming favourable."
Correspondence: J. Cleland, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40086 Cruijsen, H.; Eding, H. An evaluation of recent population scenarios for the EEA and Switzerland. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 44, No. 7, Jul 1996. 20-30 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article will review the quality of the national long-term population scenarios [for the EEA and Switzerland] compiled by Eurostat in Spring 1991 (former European Community) and Spring 1993 (former European Free Trade Association). By means of a limited number of figures it will be shown how close these projections were for the period 1990-1994. Each item will be briefly explained."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40087 de Beer, J.; de Jong, A. National population scenarios for countries of the European Economic Area. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 44, No. 7, Jul 1996. 7-19 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This article presents new population scenarios for the 18 countries of the European Economic Area (EEA) for the period 1995-2050. In most of these countries population size will continue to grow for some two to three decades. A major exception is Italy, which will see its population size decline rather sharply. According to the baseline scenario total population size of the 18 EEA countries will increase from 376 million in 1995 to 393 million in 2020. Around 2025 the total population size will start to decline. It will be about equal to the current level in 2050. Ageing is a common trend in all countries. The pace of the ageing process however differs between countries. Italy and Spain in particular will face a strongly ageing population. According to the baseline scenario, the percentage of the population aged 65 years or over in the 18 EEA countries will increase from 15 in 1995 to 28 in 2050."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40088 Eding, J. H.; Willekens, F. J.; Cruijsen, H. Long-term demographic scenarios for the European Union. Population Research Centre Demographic Reports, No. 20, 1996. [vii], 249 pp. University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences: Groningen, Netherlands. In Eng.
This report presents five alternative projections of future population trends in the countries of the European Community up to the year 2025. The projections were prepared in cooperation with EUROSTAT in the context of a prospective study on pension expenditures, and are based on available data concerning the population on January 1, 1994. The projections range from an increase in population of 49 million to a decrease of 18 million. Significant differences in demographic aging are identified both among the various projections and among the countries included in the projections.
Correspondence: University of Groningen, Faculty of Spatial Sciences, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40089 Görzig, Bernd; Gornig, Martin; Schulz, Erika. Quantitative scenarios for population and economic development in Germany to the year 2000. [Quantitative Szenarien zur Bevölkerungs- und Wirtschaftsentwicklung in Deutschland bis zum Jahr 2000.] Beiträge zur Strukturforschung, No. 150, ISBN 3-428-08001-7. LC 94-156812. 1994. 114 pp. Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
In the wake of German reunification and the opening of Eastern Europe, two possible scenarios, labeled "integration" and "stagnation", are presented for the development of Germany's population and economy from 1992 to 2000. The integration scenario assumes success in liberalizing world trade and stabilization of the Eastern European economy, and a correspondingly strong global economy. The stagnation scenario assumes obstacles to global trade and negative effects of the economic conversion in Eastern Europe. Prognoses are made in various categories, including net migration and population changes by age, as well as labor force participation, percentage of foreigners, productivity, unemployment, occupational structure, and income distribution. In each category, projections are presented for the former East and West Germany.
Correspondence: Deutsches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Königin-Luise-Straße 5, 14195 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40090 Hall, Ray; White, Paul. Europe's population: towards the next century. ISBN 1-85728-178-0. 1995. xiii, 208 pp. UCL Press: London, England. In Eng.
This collective work has its roots in a session at the 1992 Annual Conference of British Geographers on future population change in Europe, organized by the Population Geography Study Group. "The aim of [this book]...is to contribute to informed discussion of the demographic futures of Europe as a whole. The whole range of population geography is covered, including considerations of fertility and mortality, household and family structures, labour-force issues, population redistribution and international migration. The authors were each asked to look to the year 2000 and, where possible, beyond. The approach adopted eschews highly technical projections, instead highlighting issues and alternative scenarios within general contexts of societal and economic evolution." The primary focus is on the countries of the European Union.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: UCL Press, University College London, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40091 Höhn, Charlotte. Population projections for the world, the European Community member states, and Germany. [Bevölkerungsvorausberechnungen für die Welt, die EU-Mitgliedsländer und Deutschland.] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1996. 171-218 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The article is a study for the parliamentary ad hoc Commission on Demographic Change [in Germany] and contains the following sections: introductory remarks regarding methodology, population projections of the United Nations for the world and its regions, population projections for the EU member countries, and official population projections for...the Federal Republic of Germany prior to unification....Summarising the results in a single sentence, it can be established that all populations in the world will undergo ageing in the future. The industrialised countries have already progressed considerably farther in this direction, however."
Correspondence: C. Höhn, Statistisches Bundesamt, Bundesinstitut für Bevölkerungsforschung, 65180 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40092 Honduras. Secretaría de Planificación, Coordinación y Presupuesto (Tegucigalpa, Honduras); United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York); Honduras. Dirección General de Estadística y Censos (Tegucigalpa, Honduras). Honduras: population projections. National, departmental, and municipal. [Honduras: proyecciones de población. Nacionales, departamentales, municipales.] Jan 1996. 313 pp. Tegucigalpa, Honduras. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Honduras by age and sex and for various geographical subdivisions. The projections for the whole country are for the period 1988-2050, those for departments for 1988-2010, and those for municipalities for 1988-2000.
Correspondence: Secretaría de Planificación, Coordinación y Presupuesto, Dirección General de Estadística y Censos, Tegucigalpa, Honduras. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40093 Hussein, Mounira A. Time series analysis for forecasting both fertility and mortality levels in Egypt until year 2010. Egyptian Population and Family Planning Review, Vol. 27, No. 2, Dec 1993. 67-81 pp. Giza, Egypt. In Eng.
"Egypt's population has rapidly increased since the beginning of the twentieth century. This rapid increase reflects mainly both fertility and mortality. Here, a class of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model is used to analyze a time series of crude birth rate (CBR) and crude death rate (CDR). Predicted values for both CBR and CDR in Egypt for the time period 1992-2010 are derived. We used these predictions to get predicted values for Natural Increase Rate (NIR) for the time period 1992-2010."
Correspondence: M. A. Hussein, Menoufia University, College of Commerce, Shebeen El-Kome, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40094 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Population projections. [Prévisions de population.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 43, No. 6, 1996. 171-98 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for Luxembourg up to the year 2010. The first section has projections for each year by age, with four assumptions concerning migration. The second section has projections of the labor force and school-age population. The third section presents household projections.
Correspondence: Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, Boîte Postale 304, 19-21 Boulevard Royal, 2013 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40095 van Poppel, Frans; de Beer, Joop. Evaluation of standard mortality projections for the elderly. In: Health and mortality among elderly populations, edited by Graziella Caselli and Alan D. Lopez. 1996. 288-312 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England; International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liège, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this chapter we will discuss how the official population projections, made by governmental agencies, have treated mortality at higher ages, and evaluate how successful they have been in making projections of the future number of elderly people. Attention will be restricted to the experiences in developed countries and, in particular, to the situation in European countries....We first give an overview of the different approaches used in projecting mortality. In the next section, we will review the recent population projections made by the statistical agencies in Western countries, giving particular attention to how the highest age-groups are treated in these projections. We will then evaluate the accuracy of a series of population projections for the elderly population made in developed countries during the period 1950-90."
Correspondence: F. van Poppel, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40096 Yadava, K. N. S.; Yadava, S. N.; Sarin, D. Population growth under changed fertility schedule in stability conditions. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 6, No. 1, 1996. 55-65, 67 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper aims to investigate some models for population projection under a gradual change in fertility schedule, and to evaluate integrals therein for their actual values....Some formulae for population projection have been derived under stability conditions. The proposed formulae are also illustrated with some numerical values of the parameters involved therein. The merits and shortcomings are also discussed."
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:40097 Yousif, Hassan M.; Hammouda, Ahmad A. Alternative population projection scenarios by education attainment for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia. Population Bulletin of ESCWA, No. 43, 1995. 55-98 pp. Amman, Jordan. In Eng.
"This paper presents alternative population projections for Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia using the scenario approach developed at the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. Its primary objective is to show how education attainment and policies influence the future population patterns in these countries....Section I gives a brief presentation of the scenario approach. Sections II and III show fertility and mortality conditions in Egypt, the Sudan and Tunisia....Section V presents the stands of Governments on population policies and in shaping future population patterns. We [then] present our assumptions, scenario setting and projection results...."
Correspondence: H. M. Yousif, University of Botswana, Private Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

62:40098 Bourcier de Carbon, Philippe. The population of France: a chronicle of the coming implosion. [Population de la France: chronique d'une implosion annoncée.] Futuribles, No. 203, Nov 1995. 63-92 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author first notes that in France, as in most other countries that have completed the demographic transition, fertility has stabilized at a level below that necessary to replace the population. A consequence of this is a continuing process of demographic aging, leading to increasing allocations of the nation's resources to meet the needs of the elderly at the expense of the young, which in turn leads to even lower levels of fertility. The author argues for policies to redistribute wealth toward families with children, pointing out that the longer the initiation of such policies is delayed, the more unpopular they are likely to prove politically. He concludes that unless such policies are adopted, the population will not only age, but will begin an inexorable process of decline in total size.
Correspondence: P. Bourcier de Carbon, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

62:40099 Hammel, E. A. Demographic constraints on population growth of early humans: emphasis on the probable role of females in overcoming such constraints. Human Nature, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1996. 217-55 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The human population grew at very low average rates for most of its existence. Mortality was reasonably severe and expectation of life at birth was low. The level of fertility necessary to achieve even infinitesimal population growth under such mortality implies birth intervals sufficiently short to conflict with the ability to care for and carry children in a mobile foraging economy. Techniques for the control of mortality, especially of children before puberty and of women in childbirth, and of child care exchange, probably developed by females, may have been essential in permitting population growth under conditions of mobile foraging."
Correspondence: E. A. Hammel, University of California, Department of Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).

62:40100 Khalatbari, Parviz. Population and underdevelopment--thoughts on the Cairo International Conference on Population and Development. [Bevölkerung und Unterentwicklung--Gedanken zur Kairoer Konferenz über Bevölkerung und Entwicklung.] Asien, Afrika, Lateinamerika, Vol. 24, 1996. 1-16 pp. New York, New York/Chur, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The continuing rapid growth of world population, particularly in the developing countries, is described. "The backward social and economic environment is not able to keep pace with the growing population. The result is an increasing population pressure which finds its expression in unemployment, hunger, the depletion of...nature, deforestation as well as migration, uncontrolled expansion of the cities and slum-building. These problems [already have] global dimensions and their aggravation is expected in the next 30 years. Our civilisation is exposed to these global risks. And we have no practicable conception for solving them."
Correspondence: P. Khalatbari, Gesellschaft für Demographie, Parkaue 3, 10367 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1996-1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.