Volume 62 - Number 3 - Fall 1996

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

62:30749 Chen, Youhua. A parity- and group-age-specific regression population development model. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1995. 259-66 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
A model of population dynamics in China is presented that takes into account available data on parity, age, and marital status. The author considers how the model can be applied to setting birth quota targets at the local level in the implementation of population policy.
Correspondence: Y. Chen, Family Planning Commission, Nanjing, Jiangsu Province, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30750 Ebrahimi, Nader. The effects of misclassification of the actual cause of death in competing risk analysis. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 15, No. 14, Jul 30, 1996. 1,557-66 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
The author develops a way to modify the classical approach to the competing risks analysis of causes of death. This modification is made in order to accommodate the problems caused by misclassifications, particularly when information on the actual cause of death is not available and when a set of possible causes is provided. The author notes that "many times there are several causes that act together and realistically it is impossible for the expert to assign a death to a single cause. In particular, I provide a likelihood for parametric competing risks analysis when the actual cause of death is possibly misclassified. The data include time to death...and a set of possible causes of death. If misclassification probabilities are unknown, I propose a Baysian analysis based on a prior distribution for the parameters of interest and for the misclassification probabilities."
Correspondence: N. Ebrahimi, Northern Illinois University, Division of Statistics, De Kalb, IL 60115-2854. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30751 Eggerickx, Thierry; Poulain, Michel. On the variability of demographic parameters for small populations. [De la variabilité des paramètres démographiques pour les petites populations.] Espace, Populations, Sociétés, No. 1, 1996. 93-102 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"Several obstacles such as the lack of data, an excessive variability of the parameters or problems of confidentiality usually stop any attempt to develop a demographic analysis for local populations. This paper mainly concerns the problem of variability in the demographic parameters when dealing with small numbers of events. This is usually the case with local populations even if several years of observations are grouped. The discussion concludes by giving formulas for estimating a confidence interval for different demographic parameters while some examples are proposed on the base of a set of Belgian communes with different population size."
Correspondence: T. Eggerickx, Université Catholique de Louvain, Département de Démographie, 1 place Montesquieu, B.P. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30752 Hoem, Jan M. Harmless omission in the standardization of demographic rates. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 93, ISBN 91-7820-106-3. Mar 1995. 13 pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"Standardization is a well-known technique used to avoid compositional effects when a schedule of demographic rates are compared for two or more subpopulations. Common sense tells us that such standardization can be omitted when the subpopulations have the same structure with respect to the covariates one could standardize for. The present note gives a theoretical justification of this intuitive insight and relates it to the theory for harmless model misspecification in intensity-regression analysis."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30753 Liao, Tim F. Demographic theories and models. Sociological Quarterly, Vol. 37, No. 1, Winter 1996. 17-144 pp. University of California Press: Berkeley, California. In Eng.
This special issue contains five articles that examine "the three major substantive matters in demography: fertility, mortality, and migration. They also span the spectrum from fairly formal mathematical and statistical models to feminist renditions and critical evaluations of existing demographic theories."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: University of California Press, Journals Division, 2120 Berkeley Way, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

62:30754 Loriaux, Michel. The contribution of the Louvain school of demography: critical reflections on the past and new challenges for the future of the population sciences. [L'apport de l'école louvaniste de démographie: réflexions critiques sur le passé et nouveaux défis pour l'avenir des sciences de la population.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1996. 405-16 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author, director of the Institute of Demography at the Catholic University of Louvain in Belgium, discusses the state of the field of demography. In order to ensure the survival of demography as an independent discipline, he calls for adaptations to be made to take into account the increasing complexity of social realities, and for renewed consideration of the social and human aspects of demographic issues.
Correspondence: M. Loriaux, Université Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Démographie, 1 place Montesquieu, B.P. 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30755 Pollard, John H. Modelling the interaction between the sexes. Actuarial Studies and Demography Research Paper, No. 007/95, ISBN 1-86408-095-7. Sep 1995. 34 pp. Macquarie University, School of Economic and Financial Studies: Sydney, Australia. In Eng.
"In this paper, we outline the traditional one-sex models used by demographers, and point out their limitations in handling the necessary interaction between the sexes. We then describe some of the more important approaches which have been proposed to tackle the two-sex problem."
Correspondence: Macquarie University, School of Economic and Financial Studies, Sydney, NSW 2109, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30756 Pressat, Roland. The characteristics of French demography. [Spécificité de la démographie française.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1996. 399-404 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author attempts to define what is meant by "the French school of demography." In contrast to the United States, France possesses many decades of complete and detailed national population data; this has contributed to a French focus on a quantitative, statistical approach to analytical demography, while the United States is particularly strong in specific or sociological research, in part because many U.S. studies are privately funded by various foundations. Citing Louis Henry as an example, the author concludes that the French school of demography is defined by a particular attention to the details of demographic analysis and by efforts to systematize its methods.
Correspondence: R. Pressat, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30757 Roussel, Louis; Chasteland, Jean-Claude. A half-century of demography in the industrialized countries: some reflections on what it has accomplished. [Un demi-siècle de démographie dans les pays industriels: quelques réflexions sur un bilan.] Population, Vol. 51, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1996. 417-37 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The authors discuss the past and present identity of the field of demography. The discussion refers to papers given at INED's fiftieth anniversary colloquium on the past and future of demography in France, Great Britain, the United States, the former Soviet Union, Hungary, the Netherlands, and Italy. In order to prevent demography from becoming a merely auxiliary discipline, they call for preserving the specificity of the science while opening it up to other disciplines.
Correspondence: L. Roussel, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30758 Shen, J.; Spence, N. A. Modelling urban-rural population growth in China. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 28, No. 8, Aug 1996. 1,417-44 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The population of China is still growing despite a dramatic decline in fertility in the past two decades. There are marked urban-rural differentials in fertility and, as a result, the pace of urbanization has significant effects on population growth. In this research an attempt is made to model urban-rural population growth in China. A demoeconomic model of urban and rural sectors is calibrated to account for the long-term trend of urbanization in China....An accounts-based urban-rural population model, in which rural to urban migration and transition are driven by the foregoing demoeconomic model, is established....These models are used to make urban-rural population projections for the period 1988-2087 under various fertility rate assumptions."
Correspondence: J. Shen, University of Wales, Department of Geography, Singleton Park, Swansea SA2 8PP, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

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