Volume 62 - Number 3 - Fall 1996

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

62:30055 Larivière, Jean-Pierre. What demographic transition in China? [Quelle transition démographique en Chine?] Espace, Populations, Sociétés, No. 1, 1996. 153-60 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"A better knowledge of the demographic evolution since the beginning of the 18th century shows that the originality of China lies mostly in the sustained growth during part of the last centuries of the traditional demographic regime. The demographic transition, however, seems to have taken place from the interwar years onwards, following a classic pattern--first, a lasting decline of mortality, a decrease in fertility starting in the early stages of the People's Republic."
Correspondence: J.-P. Larivière, Université de Rennes 2, Département de Géographie, 6 Avenue Gaston Berger, 35043 Rennes Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

62:30056 Belgium. Institut National de Statistique (Brussels, Belgium). Foreign population as at January 1, 1996. [Population étrangère au 1.1.1996.] Statistiques Démographiques, No. 1B, 1996. 289 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
Estimates are presented of the foreign population of Belgium by marital status, nationality, age, and sex for 1996. The estimates are presented separately for the whole country, the major regions, and the provinces.
Correspondence: Institut National de Statistique, 44 rue de Louvain, Centre Albert, 8e étage, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30057 Macau. Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e Censos (Macau). Estimates of the resident population of Macau as of December 31, 1995. [Estimativas da população residente de Macau para 31 de dezembro de 1995.] Mar 1996. 63 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
Population estimates by sex are presented for Macau for individual years from 1992 to 1995. Selected demographic indicators for the same years are also provided.
Correspondence: Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e Censos, Centro de Documentação e Difusão, Rua Inácio Baptista 4D-6, 3 andar, Macau. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30058 Macau. Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e Censos (Macau). The methodology for preparing population estimates. [Metodologia das estimativas da população.] Mar 1996. 12 pp. Macau. In Chi; Por.
This report describes the methodology used for preparing official population estimates of population in Macau.
Correspondence: Direcção de Serviços de Estatística e Censos, Centro de Documentação e Difusão, Rua Inácio Baptista 4D-6, 3 andar, Macau. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30059 Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael; Yau, Ellen. How well can IRS count the population? In: American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the Government Statistics Section. [1993]. 138-42 pp. American Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This study explores the extent to which data developed by the U.S. Internal Revenue Service for tax analysis purposes can be used to prepare population estimates. "First, we will demonstrate how administrative records can be used to compute a population estimate. Then we will discuss the reliability of this estimate. Next, we will compare estimates from our data base, classified by age, sex, and state, to results from the 1990 Census. And finally, we will summarize our conclusions and make some recommendations for further research."
Correspondence: P. Sailer, Internal Revenue Service, (O:S), P.O. Box 2608, Washington, D.C. 20013-2608. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

62:30060 United Kingdom. Scotland. General Register Office (Edinburgh, Scotland). Mid-1995 population estimates: Scotland. ISBN 0-11-495809-2. 1996. 26 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for Scotland for 1995. "Data are given for the new council areas that came into existence on 1 April 1996...and for health board areas. Some relevant historical information and a table giving land areas and population densities are also presented. An additional set of tables gives data for the local authority regions, districts, and islands areas that existed in 1995."
Correspondence: HMSO Publications Centre, P.O. Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30061 Verma, Ravi B. P.; Riordan, Robert; Stout, Cameron. The accuracy of the regression method for estimating the population of small areas in Canada, 1981 to 1991. In: American Statistical Association, 1993 Proceedings of the Government Statistics Section. [1993]. 179-83 pp. American Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The purpose of this paper is to examine whether the three methods used by Statistics Canada to produce population estimates of small areas are comparable over time. This is achieved by "(1) comparing the 1991 postcensal Regression-direct, Regression-nested, and preliminary Component estimates of the population in relative terms with the 1991 Census counts; and, (2) by comparing the level of accuracy of the three methods with those observed in the evaluations conducted for the 1981 and 1986 Censuses."
Correspondence: R. B. P. Verma, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

62:30062 Ananta, Aris; Anwar, Evi N. Projection of Indonesian population and labor force: 1995-2025. Population Projection Series, No. 5, ISBN 979-525-048-5. Jun 1995. xi, 69 pp. University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
This report contains projections of the rural and urban population of Indonesia by age and sex, as well as projections of the labor force to the year 2025. The projections include a chosen scenario and three alternative projections taking variations in fertility developments into account. The data are from the 1990 census and the 1991 Demographic and Health Survey.
Correspondence: University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute, Jalan Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30063 Anwar, Evi N.; Fadjri, Panpan A.; Setiati, M. U. Ira. Population projection, 1995-2025: West Java. Population Projection Series, No. 6, ISBN 979-525-055-8. Jan 1995. ix, 57 pp. University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
This is one in a series of publications presenting population projections for Indonesia by province and by age and sex up to the year 2025. The projections are based on data from the 1990 census and the 1991 Demographic and Health Survey, and take into account different assumptions concerning fertility, mortality, and migration.
Correspondence: University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute, Jalan Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30064 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos [INDEC] (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Population estimates for the period 1950-1990: projections by sex and age for the period 1990-2050 (medium variant). [Estimaciones demográficas del periodo 1950-1990: proyecciones por sexo y edad del periodo 1990-2050 (variante media o recomendada).] Documentos de Trabajo INDEC, No. 19, LC 94-236725. 1994. 17 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Argentina based on data from the 1991 census. The estimates are for total population by sex for individual years from 1950 to 1990. The projections are by age and sex up to 2050. Estimates of the major demographic indicators are also given for the same period.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Ministerio de Economía y Obras y Servicios Públicos, Secretaría de Planificación, Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30065 Bäckman, Jeanette B.; Schéele, Siv. Uncertainty in population forecasts for small areas. In: Demography, economy and welfare, edited by Christer Lundh. 1995. 419-34 pp. Lund University Press: Lund, Sweden; Chartwell-Bratt: Bromley, England. In Eng.
"This presentation concerns the estimation of errors in population forecasts for small areas. Errors can be divided into random errors, errors in assumptions, errors due to divergence of housing plans and model errors....This study concentrates on random errors and the total error of the forecast. A measure is used that is independent of the size of the area, but depends on the age-class of the population and the duration of the forecast. The random errors are estimated by a theoretical model, whereas the total error is estimated by evaluation of old forecasts....To estimate total forecasting error forecasts from four municipalities in the County of Stockholm [Sweden] have been evaluated."
Correspondence: J. B. Bäckman, Stockholm Office of Research and Statistics, Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30066 Birg, Herwig. World population projections for the 21st century: theoretical interpretations and quantitative simulations. Research Reports of the Institute for Population Research and Social Policy (IBS), Vol. 21, ISBN 3-593-35432-2. LC 95-16629. 1995. 498 pp. Campus Verlag: New York, New York/Frankfurt, Germany; St. Martin's Press: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This book builds a bridge between the central propositions of population theory and demographic projections of global population growth in the 21st Century. It analyses the historical and philosophical interrelations between demography, ethics and politics, and goes on to draw conclusions for the design of population-oriented policies for the future." The book has chapters on population theory and human ecology; intercultural differences in human reproduction and the decline in world fertility; population projections for the twenty-first century; population growth, development, and the environment; and ethical aspects of population policy. The projections are provided in extensive graphs and tables.
Correspondence: St. Martin's Press, 175 Fifth Avenue, New York, NY 10010. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30067 Ecuador. Consejo Nacional de Desarrollo (Quito, Ecuador); Ecuador. Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos [INEC] (Quito, Ecuador); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografía [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York). Ecuador: population estimates and projections, 1950-2010. [Ecuador: estimaciones y proyecciones de población, periodo 1950-2010.] Mar 1993. 110, iv pp. Quito, Ecuador. In Spa.
After an initial chapter on methodology, this report has chapters on population trends in Ecuador, 1950-1990; population projections by sex and age, 1990-2010; rural and urban populations; and alternative projections to 2010 depending on varying assumptions concerning fertility.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos, Avenida 10 de Agosto 229, Edificio San Luis, Quito, Ecuador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30068 Hirosima, Kiyosi. Projection of living arrangements of the elderly in Japan: 1990-2010. Institute of Population Problems Working Paper Series, No. 22, Dec 1995. 22 pp. Institute of Population Problems: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"We devise a method relying mainly upon mortality [trends in Japan] to project the elderly population by marital status which we call `cohort growth rate ratio method'....The projected increase of the elderly population over the twenty years from 1990 increases the elderly in all the types of household and accounts for most of the elderly's increase in all the types of...household according to the results of...three projections; population (official), marital status, and household status."
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30069 Hong Kong. Census and Statistics Department (Hong Kong). Hong Kong population projections 1992-2011. [1992]. iii, 47 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng.
Based on results from the 1991 census, population projections are presented by age and sex for Hong Kong up to the year 2011. The report includes a description of the methodologies and assumptions used.
Correspondence: Census and Statistics Department, Demographic Statistics Section, 2/F Koway Court, 111 Chai Wan Road, Chai Wan, Hong Kong. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30070 Joshi, Heather. Projections of European population decline: serious demography or false alarm? In: Europe's population in the 1990s, edited by David Coleman. 1996. 222-66 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this chapter is to review some demographic projections of the foreseeable future [in Europe]....This chapter looks first at the UN's total population projections for the broadly defined Europe, and the breakdown of these into broad regions. We then turn to the sub-regions covered by the EC and Eurostat's Two Long-term Population Scenarios to the year 2020....After comparing the two agencies' projections for the same area, we focus further on the EC countries. We review some features of the aggregate projection, in particular, share in world population and age structure. Finally we look at individual countries within the EC, and at the differences among them in terms of the assumptions used in the projections."
Correspondence: H. Joshi, City University, Social Statistics Research Unit, Northampton Square, London EC1V 0HB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30071 Kerr, D.; Kopustas, N. Projections of households and families for Canada, provinces and territories, 1994-2016. [Projections des ménages et des familles pour le Canada, les provinces et les territoires, 1994-2016.] Pub. Order No. 91-522. ISBN 0-660-58932-X. Oct 1995. 100 pp. Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section: Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
"This report presents new household and family projections [for Canada] by type and size, covering the period 1994 to 2016....For the first time, the population projections, which form the base, were produced using population estimates adjusted for net census undercoverage, and included two new components, namely, non-permanent residents and returning Canadians....Four projection series have been included. They provide a range of plausible alternatives in the number, size, and characteristics of households and families, with such breakdowns as family and non-family households, and lone-parent families."
Correspondence: Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Population Projections Section, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30072 Morocco. Direction de la Statistique. Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques [CERED] (Rabat, Morocco). Population projections, 1994-2014. [Projections de la population, 1994 à 2014.] Mar 1996. 79 pp. Rabat, Morocco. In Fre.
These are official population projections for Morocco up to the year 2014. Data are presented separately for rural and urban populations and by province and prefecture. An analysis of the projections and a description of the methodology used to prepare them are included.
Correspondence: Direction de la Statistique, Centre d'Etudes et de Recherches Démographiques, Rue Mohamed Belhassan el Ouazzani, Haut-Agdal, B.P. 178, Rabat, Morocco. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30073 Morrison, Peter A. Forecasting enrollments during court-ordered desegregation. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 15, No. 2, Apr 1996. 131-46 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Distinctive issues arise when a demographer must forecast enrollments in a context of court-ordered desegregation. The key issue studied here is whether magnet schools have strengthened a district's overall attractiveness to enrollees from outside or merely siphoned students away from other nonmagnet schools within the district, without any real districtwide enrollment gain. To clarify this issue, I analyze patterns of change in grade progression rates [in Missouri] over several years as magnet schools were phased in at a large urban school district. Generally, magnet schools induced little actual gain, merely slowing the overall weakening of districtwide retention. These findings furnished an important `reality check' on the judgement for crafting appropriate forecasting assumptions and the resulting forecast proved reasonably accurate." A comment by E. Walter Terrie and a rejoinder by Morrison are included (pp. 65-9).
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1994 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: P. A. Morrison, RAND, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90407-2138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30074 Roy, Luc; Guimond, Eric. Demography perspectives and forecasts of the demand for electricity. [Perspectives démographiques et prévision de la demande d'électricité.] Cahiers Québécois de Démographie, Vol. 24, No. 1, Spring 1995. 87-108 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Demographic perspectives form an integral part in the development of electric load forecasts. These forecasts in turn are used to justify the addition and repair of generating facilities that will supply power in the coming decades. The goal of this article is to present how demographic perspectives are incorporated into the electric load forecasting in Quebec. The first part presents the methods, hypotheses and results of population and household projections used by Hydro-Québec in updating its latest development plan. The second section demonstrates applications of such demographic projections for forecasting the electric load, with a focus on the residential sector."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30075 Russia. Gosudarstvennyi Komitet Rossiiskoi Federatsii po Statistike. Goskomstat Rossii (Moscow, Russia). The estimated population of the Russian Federation. [Predpolozhitel'naya chislennost' naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii.] 1992. 358 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population projections are presented for the Russian Federation up to the year 2016. Data from the 1989 census and vital statistics for the period 1989-1990 are used. The projections are for the total population and the economically active population. Presented separately are projections for the whole country, individual republics, krai (major regions), and oblasts (districts). Figures are also provided for major age groups and the rural and urban population.
Correspondence: Gosudarstvennyi Komitet Rossiiskoi Federatsii po Statistike, ul. Kirova 39, 103450 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30076 Stojanovic, Branislav; Stevanovic, Radoslav. Model of demogeographic development: physical plan of Serbia. [Model demogeografskog razvoja: na primeru prostornog plana Srbije.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 33, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1995. 103-17 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
"To implement one of the major segments of the Physical Plan of Serbia relating to the projection and distribution of the population in the plan period (until 2011), a model of demogeographic development of these regions was formulated and applied....The model gives projections of demographic development by basic elements, like changes in population sizes down to the level of micro units,...future changes in population composition by age and the projected sizes of basic functional quotas."
Correspondence: R. Stevanovic, Univerzitet u Beogradu, Institut Drustvenih Nauka, Centar za Demografska Istrazivanja, Narodnog Fronta 45, 11000 Belgrade,Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

62:30077 Tayman, Jeff. The accuracy of small-area population forecasts based on a spatial interaction land-use modeling system. Journal of the American Planning Association, Vol. 62, No. 1, Winter 1996. 85-98 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"The present case study of San Diego County evaluates census tract forecasts based on [a spatial interaction modeling system known as DRAM/EMPAL]....This case study illustrates measures that provide a broader look at forecast error. Mean absolute and algebraic percent errors are the most commonly used measures of precision and bias....But measures based on the average can overstate the typical error, because forecast error distributions are often positively skewed. Skewed error distributions, which occur with greater frequency in small areas...often result in different values for the median and the average of the central tendency. Therefore, this study measures error with both statistics....The unit of analysis in this study is 1980 census tracts within San Diego County, California."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, San Diego, CA. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

62:30078 Voit, Hermann. Trends in private households up to 2015. [Entwicklung der Privathaushalte bis 2015.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 2, Feb 1996. 90-6 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Projections of the number and size of private households in Germany up to the year 2015 are presented. Methodological aspects are also reviewed, and results are analyzed separately for the former East and West Germany. Two alternative projections are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

62:30079 Werschler, T.; Nault, F. Projecting interregional migration balances within a multiregional cohort-component framework. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 28, No. 5, May 1996. 769-82 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The main themes of the paper are developed in three parts. First, the setting for the study is established by reviewing the foundational theory of multiregional population projections, and by detailing how interregional migration is projected within this approach. Second, we will identify the requirements for making multiregional population projections in Canada and undertake to explain why the conventional approach to projecting interregional migration produces less than satisfactory results. Third, an alternative method for projecting interregional migration is proposed."
Correspondence: T. Werschler, Statistics Canada, Geography Division, Jean Talon Building, Ottawa K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

62:30080 Gu, Baochang. Shanghai: a case study of negative population growth. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1995. 267-76 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"How does the negative increase of population occur? What are the demographic and nondemographic factors that give rise to such [a] phenomenon? And what are the implications? The negative increase of population in Shanghai provided an instance and opportunity for the research on these issues, which this study is intended to discuss."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1996-1997, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.