Volume 60 - Number 2 - Summer 1994

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

60:20716 Rogers, Andrei; Little, Jani S. Parameterizing age patterns of demographic rates with the multiexponential model schedule. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3, Feb 1994. 175-95, 223 pp. New York, New York/Yverdon, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"For nearly 200 years actuaries, statisticians, and demographers have sought to summarize the age pattern of mortality rates by means of a limited number of parameters. Such 'model schedules' have also been useful in representing schedules of rates other than mortality....This paper illustrates a particular general functional form for such model schedules: the multiexponential function. It discusses the changing behavior of this function as its parameters take on different values and examines the quality of the fits of this function to observed data on mortality, fertility, and migration."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1993 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America.
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20717 Shen, J. Spatial-dynamic population systems: analysis and projection. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 26, No. 3, Mar 1994. 471-88 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper a set of more-detailed multiregional population accounts is proposed to specify more realistically the exposure time of populations at risk for various components of population change. The concepts of population-time at risk and forward demographic rates based on the initial population are discussed. The relations of the forward demographic rates defined in this paper with the occurrence-exposure demographic rates are discussed. A more precise and straightforward multiregional population model is developed on the basis of forward demographic rates. The model is also expressed in the familiar matrix form of multiregional, cohort-survival models." Some applications of the model are made to data for China.
Correspondence: J. Shen, London School of Economics, Department of Geography, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

60:20718 Van Imhoff, Evert. A consistency algorithm based on information theory. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3, Feb 1994. 197-203, 223 pp. New York, New York/Yverdon, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper provides a geometric-mean solution to the consistency problem of multidimensional demographic projection models, based on the constrained minimization of an entropy function. A comparison with the existing harmonic-mean solution yields many similarities and almost no differences....However, one major advantage of the geometric mean is that its corresponding distance function is firmly based on (information) theory."
Correspondence: E. Van Imhoff, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2602 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

60:20719 Winkelmann, Rainer; Zimmermann, Klaus F. Count data models for demographic data. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 4, No. 3, Feb 1994. 205-21, 223 pp. New York, New York/Yverdon, Switzerland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper deals with the estimation of single equation models in which the counts are regressed on a set of observed individual characteristics such as age, gender, or nationality....We propose a generalized event count model to simultaneously allow for a wide class of count data models and account for over- and underdispersion. This model is successfully applied to German data on fertility, divorces and mobility."
Correspondence: R. Winkelmann, University of Munich, SELAPO, Ludwigstrasse 28 RG, 80539 Munich, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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