Volume 59 - Number 3 - Fall 1993

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

59:30590 Brander, James A.; Dowrick, Steve. The role of fertility and population in economic growth: empirical results from aggregate cross-national data. NBER Working Paper, No. 4270, Feb 1993. 40 pp. National Bureau of Economic Research [NBER]: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
Data for 107 countries compiled primarily from UN sources for the period 1960-1985 are used to examine the effects of population growth and fertility on economic growth.
Correspondence: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:30591 Curi, Paulo R. Grouping of countries according to basic and economic indicators. [Agrupamento de paises segundo indicadores basicos e economicos.] Revista Brasileira de Estudos de Populacao, Vol. 8, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1991. 112-24 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
"Countries are grouped according to a collection of basic and economic indicators published by UNICEF, in 1990. Two multivariate statistical methods were used: Principal Component Analysis and Cluster Analysis. The study [covers] 36 countries of the Americas, Europe (including the USSR), the Middle East, Asia and the other continents; they were chosen to include countries having complete information (for the 16 variables used) and in the most varied stages of development. The first principal component was interpreted as a measure of the degree of development...with emphasis on the position occupied by Brazil (13th place among the 25 American countries). In general, the most discriminative variables were the mortality rates of infants and children under five, and life expectancy...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30592 Kennedy, Paul. Preparing for the twenty-first century. ISBN 0-394-58443-0. LC 91-52668. 1993. xvi, 428 pp. Random House: New York, New York. In Eng.
The author examines the effect that a number of interrelated global trends will have on the nations of the world over the first part of the twenty-first century. The trends analyzed in Part 1 include population growth; the revolution in communications and finance and the rise of the multinational corporation; agriculture and the biotechnology revolution; robotics, automation, and the new industrial revolution; environmental dangers; and the future of the nation state. Part 2 examines the regional impact of these trends, and Part 3 considers how societies can best prepare to face them.
Correspondence: Random House, 201 East 50th Street, 31st Floor, New York, NY 10022. Location: Princeton Public Library, Princeton, NJ.

59:30593 Kremer, Michael. Population growth and technological change: one million B.C. to 1990. Quarterly Journal of Economics, Vol. 108, No. 3, Aug 1993. 681-716 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"The nonrivalry of technology, as modeled in the endogenous growth literature, implies that high population spurs technological change. This paper constructs and empirically tests a model of long-run world population growth combining this implication with the Malthusian assumption that technology limits population. The model predicts that over most of history, the growth rate of population will be proportional to its level. Empirical tests support this prediction and show that historically, among societies with no possibility for technological contact, those with larger initial populations have had faster technological change and population growth."
Correspondence: M. Kremer, Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Department of Economics, Cambridge, MA 02139. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

59:30594 Ogawa, Naohiro. Resources for the elderly in economic development. NUPRI Reprint Series, No. 40, Jul 1992. 19 pp. Nihon University, Population Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
The effects of economic development on the elderly and their families are assessed using data for selected developed and developing countries. Consideration is given to changes in family support systems, labor force participation for those aged 65 and over, public assistance, and policy issues in old age security.
This paper is reprinted from "Family Support for the Elderly: The International Experience", edited by Hal L. Kendig, Akiko Hashimoto, and Larry C. Coppard, pp. 69-87, Oxford University Press, 1992.
Correspondence: Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 3-2 Misaki-cho 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30595 United Nations. Department of Economic and Social Development (New York, New York). Population and development planning. Proceedings of the United Nations International Symposium on Population and Development Planning. Riga, Latvian Soviet Socialist Republic, 4-8 December 1989. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/116, Pub. Order No. E.92.XIII.13. ISBN 92-1-151249-2. 1993. xiii, 285 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This volume is the product of a symposium held in Riga, Latvia, in December 1989. "The Symposium addressed technical and practical requirements of integrated planning and assessed alternative methodologies for integrating population variables into development planning. Part one of the present volume contains the report and recommendations of the Symposium; parts two to six contain a selection of the papers that were presented." Sections are included on the history of including population factors in development planning, the use of models and projections, population and economic planning, population and sectoral planning, and training for integrated population and development planning. The geographical scope is worldwide. The papers are all in English save one, which is in French.
Correspondence: UN Department of Economic and Social Development, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

59:30596 Coale, Ansley J. A re-examination after thirty years of the relation between population trends and economic development in low income countries. In: Population transition in south Asia, edited by Ashish Bose and M. K. Premi. 1992. 3-17 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author reviews population projections for India and Mexico that he and Edgar M. Hoover made in 1956, and compares them with subsequent data. He then addresses arguments critical of the early methodology and its analysis of the relationship between population growth and economic development in developing countries.
Correspondence: A. J. Coale, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30597 Cobbe, James; Boediono. Education, demographics, the labor market, and development: Indonesia in the process of transition? Journal of Asian and African Studies, Vol. 28, No. 1-2, Jan-Apr 1993. 1-29 pp. Leiden, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Indonesia is about to enter on its second Twenty-Five-Year Plan, during which it hopes to undergo rapid industrialization. This article reviews the country's situation with respect to changes in the education and demographic behavior of its population, and the interaction between them and the labor market and development, particularly in comparison to other countries in East and Southeast Asia. Some opportunities and problems, and possible policy responses to them, are identified and discussed."
Correspondence: J. Cobbe, Florida State University, Department of Economics R-128, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2045. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

59:30598 National Research Council. Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education. Committee on Population. Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa (Washington, D.C.). Demographic effects of economic reversals in Sub-Saharan Africa. Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa, Pub. Order No. B148. ISBN 0-309-04898-2. LC 93-84259. 1993. xiv, 193 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report is one in a series of studies that have been carried out under the auspices of the Panel on the Population Dynamics of Sub-Saharan Africa of the National Research Council's Committee on Population....This report, one of...four cross-national studies, analyzes the short-run demographic effects of economic reversals and, in particular, the responses to changes in economic conditions of child mortality, timing of first marriages, and timing of first and second births. It focuses on the demographic and economic experiences in recent decades of seven countries: Botswana, Ghana, Kenya, Nigeria, Senegal, Togo, and Uganda....An attempt has been made to make the report accessible to a nontechnical audience."
Correspondence: National Academy Press, 2101 Constitution Avenue NW, Box 285, Washington, D.C. 20055. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30599 Pethe, Vasant P. Population, poverty and social transformation: an alternative paradigm. Artha Vijnana, Vol. 34, No. 2, Jun 1992. 200-8 pp. Pune, India. In Eng.
"In this paper I have proposed a new alternative paradigm on the interrelations between population, poverty and the related concerns [in India]. Its central thesis is that the population problem has also the concomitant social problems [of] unemployment, ill health, [and] crime, [with] (1) poverty as their 'immediate' determinant, (2) such evils as inequality, consumerism, military expenditure, defective planning...as their 'intermediate' determinants, and (3) out-moded non-egalitarian social structures, vicious human psyche and spiritual degradation as their 'ultimate' determinants. This new paradigm has implications for policy and programme logistics that are fundamentally different from official policy."
Correspondence: V. P. Pethe, Dashbhuj Ganesh Society, Near Paud Fata, Karve Road, Pune 411 038, India. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:30600 Tafah-Edokat, E. O. Population growth and economic development in a developing context: problems and policies. Artha Vijnana, Vol. 34, No. 2, Jun 1992. 155-62 pp. Pune, India. In Eng.
"This study addresses the issue of population growth and economic development and shows that a two way relationship exists between both concepts. It isolates some pertinent factors responsible for high fertility rates in [developing countries] and Nigeria in particular. On the basis of these factors the study then suggests both direct and indirect measures such as birth controls and mass education, among others, to reduce high fertility. Above all, development should be designed in such a way as to eliminate distortionary macro-economic policies that favour the richer groups in the economy."
Correspondence: E. O. Tafah-Edokat, Faculty of Law and Economics, B.P. 1365, Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

59:30601 Coudert, Virginie. Growth and demography in the industrialized countries. [Croissance et demographie dans les pays industrialises.] Economie Prospective Internationale, No. 52, 1992. 69-95, 131 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The economic consequences of demographic aging in developed countries are assessed. "They include falls in savings ratios, rising inequalities, as well as consequences for productivity and the financing of pension schemes. The impact on long term growth is subsequently analysed. This is done by forecasting potential output, given reductions in the working populations of these countries....Assuming that technology continues to advance as it has done since 1973, these demographic changes will lead to a clear fall in growth for both the United States and Japan. In Europe adapting to this new demographic context should be easier, as growth in recent decades has been based more on productivity gains."
Correspondence: V. Coudert, Centre d'Etudes Prospectives et d'Informations Internationales, 9 rue Georges Pitard, 75015 Paris, France. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:30602 Johnson, Paul; Zimmermann, Klaus F. Labour markets in an ageing Europe. ISBN 0-521-44398-9. 1993. xviii, 294 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"In this volume, based on a [Center for Economic Policy Research] conference held in Munich on 23-25 April 1992, demographers and labour economists assess recent demographic and labour market developments in Western and Eastern Europe. They compare them with developments in the U.S.A. and Japan and assess the effects of ageing on European productivity, earnings, and human capital formation. They consider the relationships between ageing, unemployment, labour mobility and migration and investigate the policy implications of ageing for productivity, wages, mobility, unemployment and educational activity. They consider possible policies to improve the quantity or quality of the labour force, including incentives to female labour participation, selective immigration policies, 'pronatalist' family policies, and measures to improve human capital formation through schooling and further education."
Correspondence: Cambridge University Press, 40 West 20th Street, New York, NY 10011-4211. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30603 Komendarczyk, Ewa. Changes in population development in towns and gminas of Olsztyn Voivodship during the period 1976-1989. [Typy zmian ludnosci miast i gmin wojewodztwa olsztynskiego w latach 1976-1989.] Biuletyn IGS, Vol. 33, No. 4, 1990. 200-23, 228, 232-3 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author classifies towns and gminas in Olsztyn Voivodship, Poland, acording to levels of socioeconomic development, then compares changes in such development. Data concern the period 1976-1989.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30604 United Nations. Economic Commission for Europe [ECE] (Geneva, Switzerland); United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York). Changing population age structures (1990-2015): demographic and economic consequences and implications. Pub. Order No. GV.E.92.0.20. ISBN 92-1-100381-4. 1992. viii, 407 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
This is a collection of papers presented at a seminar on the demographic and economic consequences and implications of changing population age structures in the ECE region (which includes Northern America and Europe) and New Zealand. The conference, which was sponsored by the Conference on European Statisticians, was held in Ottawa, Canada, in September 1990. "The publication also contains material which was prepared specially for it, such as...papers relating to China and Zimbabwe which were included in order to give some examples of changing population age structures in other parts of the world...." Sections are included on causes of changes in the age structure; consequences of future changes in the age structure for public revenues and expenditures; labor force implications of changing population age structures; the role of fertility and migration as adjustment mechanisms for changing population age structures; changing structures of families and households; national approaches to developing informed demographic policies; and the situation in other regions.
Correspondence: United Nations Population Fund, 220 East 42nd Street, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

59:30605 Arizpe, L.; Costanza, R.; Lutz, W. Population and natural resource use. In: An agenda of science for environment and development into the 21st century. Based on a conference held in Vienna, Austria in November 1991, edited by J. C. I. Dooge et al. ISBN 0-521-43174-3. 1992. 61-78 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The authors outline the relationships among population, economic development, and natural resource use. Consideration is given to technology, population growth, trends and projections, carrying capacity, research needs for the study of these issues, and related policy development. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30606 Ehrlich, Paul R.; Ehrlich, Anne H.; Daily, Gretchen C. Food security, population, and environment. Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, Mar 1993. 1-32, 219, 221 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article outlines the complex of issues that are critical to humanity's ultimate success in what is, arguably, the greatest challenge of the coming century--maintaining growth in global food production to match or exceed the projected doubling (at least) of the human population." The authors conclude that "it is doubtful...whether food security could be achieved indefinitely for a global population of 10 or 12 billion people. Rather, it seems likely that a sustainable population, one comfortably below Earth's nutritional carrying capacity, will number far fewer than today's 5.5 billion people; how many fewer will depend in part on how seriously Earth's carrying capacity will have been degraded in the process of supporting the population overshoot."
Correspondence: P. R. Ehrlich, Stanford University, Department of Biological Sciences, Center for Conservation Biology, Stanford, CA 94305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30607 Hogan, Daniel J. Population growth and the environment. [Crescimento demografico e meio ambiente.] Revista Brasileira de Estudos de Populacao, Vol. 8, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1991. 61-71 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews literature on the interrelationship between population growth and the environment and finds that "what is needed is an analysis of the relationships of demographic dynamics, in all [their] complexity, with environmental change. This paper suggests that a prime candidate for the attention of population specialists is migration and settlement patterns and their relationships to the physical environment." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: D. J. Hogan, Universidad Estadual de Campinas, Instituto de Filosofia e Ciencia Humanas, Departamento de Sociologia, CEP 13081 Campinas, SP, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30608 Pimentel, David. Global warming, population growth, and natural resources for food production. Society and Natural Resources, Vol. 4, No. 4, Oct 1991. 347-63 pp. Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on the availability of resources and the relations that exist among population, arable land, water, energy, food, forests, and other biological resources. Particular attention will be given to the potential effects of global warming on food supplies in North America and to technologies that might be employed to reduce the effects of global warming on food production." The author concludes that "although sound ecological practices in agriculture are needed to help offset projected global warming, of greater importance is the need to control the rapid growth in the U.S. and the world population."
Correspondence: D. Pimentel, Cornell University, Department of Entomology, Ithaca, NY 14853. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30609 Rybakovskii, L. L. The demographic consequences of the accident at the Chernobyl' atomic power station. Sociological Research, Vol. 32, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1993. 80-96 pp. Armonk, New York. In Eng.
The author attempts to estimate the demographic effects of the nuclear accident at Chernobyl atomic power station in the Ukraine in April 1986. Topics covered include the resettlement of the population most directly affected; the health status of the population; the impact on sex and age structure, fertility, and mortality; and migration.
This is a translation of the Russian article in Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya (Moscow, Russia), No. 9, 1992, pp. 40-50.
Correspondence: L. L. Rybakovskii, Russian Academy of Sciences, Institute of Sociology, Leninskii Pr. 14, 117901 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

59:30610 Afzal, Mohammad. Female labour force reporting in south Asia: some issues. In: Population transition in south Asia, edited by Ashish Bose and M. K. Premi. 1992. 41-61 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to present a comparative view of urban and rural estimates of female participation in economic activity as provided by the censuses and surveys of Pakistan, India and Bangladesh, in order to discuss some of the issues relating to improvement in their quality and coverage. The validity of female rates based on census and survey data will be examined by comparing them mutually and with the estimates from some other sources. The meaningfulness of the activity rates will be seen by comparing the corresponding rates from the three countries."
Correspondence: M. Afzal, Pakistan Institute of Development Economies, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30611 Bartik, Timothy J. Who benefits from local job growth: migrants or the original residents? Regional Studies, Vol. 27, No. 4, 1993. 297-311 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"This paper surveys research on whether the new jobs resulting from growth in a local economy (e.g. a metropolitan area) go to in-migrants or the original local residents. The empirical evidence suggests that around one-quarter of the new jobs from local growth increases the labour force participation rates of local residents in the long-run. These long-run effects may occur because local growth provides residents with valuable employment experience. Research also suggests that minorities benefit most from growth and that higher wage industries provide greater employment benefits for local residents." The geographical focus is on developed countries, particularly the United States.
Correspondence: T. J. Bartik, W. E. Upjohn Institute for Employment Research, 300 South Westnedge Avenue, Kalamazoo, MI 49007. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

59:30612 Farooq, Ghazi M.; Ofosu, Yaw. Population, labour force and employment: concepts, trends and policy issues. Background Papers for Training in Population, Human Resources and Development Planning, No. 9, ISBN 92-2-108318-7. 1992. vii, 112 pp. International Labour Office [ILO], World Employment Programme: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
This is one in a series of monographs designed to help countries incorporate demographic elements into employment-related policies and to integrate population and human resource development into the development planning process. This paper focuses on questions related to high unemployment levels in developing countries. The authors stress the need to tackle both supply and demand aspects of the problem simultaneously. They identify the main supply-side factors as being rapid population growth and migration. On the demand side, an integrated approach to employment involving policies and programs aimed at slowing the demographic components of labor force growth is advocated.
Correspondence: International Labour Office, World Employment Programme, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland.

59:30613 Fullerton, Howard N. Labor-force change exaggerated. One-third of new workers will still be white men. Population Today, Vol. 21, No. 5, May 1993. 6-7, 9 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author examines labor force trends and participation rates since 1990 for ethnic groups in the United States. He concludes that "over the next 15 years,...several demographic trends will alter the American labor force. The overall number of workers will grow more slowly, and a more diverse workplace will emerge. In 1990, non-Hispanic white men made up 43 percent of the labor force. In the year 2005, they will make up 38 percent."
Correspondence: H. N. Fullerton, U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, Office of Employment Projections, Washington, D.C. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30614 Herzog, Henry W.; Schlottmann, Alan M.; Boehm, Thomas P. Migration as spatial job-search: a survey of empirical findings. Regional Studies, Vol. 27, No. 4, 1993. 327-40 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"This paper surveys the empirical literature concerning the complex interrelationships among personal unemployment, migration and the likelihood of re-employment. Particular attention is devoted to those microdata-based studies that consider migration as spatial job-search. Implications concerning migration efficiency vary among the studies surveyed, and depend upon the methodology, data and econometric procedures employed. Recent findings by the authors, based upon a new estimation technique, provide additional evidence concerning the success of job-search vis-a-vis migration." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: H. W. Herzog, University of Tennessee, Department of Economics, Knoxville, TN 37996-0500. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

59:30615 Hwang, Jen-te. The effect of demographic changes on the unemployment rate in Taiwan: 1978-1990. Journal of Population Studies, No. 15, Dec 1992. 61-71 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to compute the effects of changes in the composition of age, sex, and labor force participation rate, and education of population and labor force on the overall unemployment rate in Taiwan. The results show that the changes in the composition of age-sex and labor force participation rate have had an increasingly significant downward pressure on the overall unemployment rate. However, the compositional changes in...education [and sex] have exerted considerable upward pressure on the overall unemployment rate...." Recommendations for future policy directions are made.
Correspondence: J.-t. Hwang, National Chengchi University, Department of Economics, Wenshang 11623, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30616 Jones, Gavin W.; Manning, Chris. Labour force and employment during the 1980s. In: The oil boom and after: Indonesian economic policy and performance in the Soeharto era, edited by Anne Booth. ISBN 0-19-588969-X. LC 91-23712. 1992. 363-410 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Singapore. In Eng.
Changes in the labor force and employment in Indonesia during the 1980s are analyzed using data from various official sources, including the National Labour Force Surveys, the National Socioeconomic Survey, and the Intercensal Survey. The authors note that during the 1970s and 1980s, "the Indonesian labour force has doubled in size and become less Java-centric, less concentrated in primary industries, and much better educated. It has remained a very youthful workforce, and although youth unemployment has been a worry, the main problem has been low productivity and low earnings rather than overt unemployment."
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:30617 Kundu, Amitabh; Premi, Mahendra K. Work and non-work in the official statistical system: issues concerning data base and research on women in India. In: Population transition in south Asia, edited by Ashish Bose and M. K. Premi. 1992. 63-82 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper analyses the deficiencies in the data base pertaining to female employment and non-workforce [in India] built up by [national-level data gathering agencies] with the objective of suggesting modifications in methods of data collection and compilation."
Correspondence: A. Kundu, Jawaharlal Nehru University, Centre for the Study of Regional Development, New Mehrauli Road, New Delhi 110 067, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30618 Levine, Phillip B.; Mitchell, Olivia S. Expected changes in the workforce and implications for labor markets. In: Demography and retirement: the twenty-first century, edited by Anna M. Rappaport and Sylvester J. Schieber. 1993. 73-109 pp. Praeger: Westport, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"The goal of this paper is to use economic tools to analyze the impact of the baby boom on three key labor market outcomes: labor force participation rates, unemployment, and wages. We concentrate mainly on this particular [U.S.] cohort's labor market outcomes, but also consider the implications of this group for the labor market as a whole. Since most of the prime-age population participates in the labor market, we focus analysis on labor market trends between the present and 2020....Consequently, an important topic of discussion will be retirement patterns of older workers and a consideration of whether the trend towards earlier retirement will continue in the next three decades." The geographical focus is on the United States. Discussions by Christopher M. Bone (pp. 97-104) and Joseph F. Quinn (pp. 105-9) are included.
Correspondence: P. B. Levine, Wellesley College, Wellesley, MA 02181. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30619 Portes, Alejandro; Schauffler, Richard. Competing perspectives on the Latin American informal sector. Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, Mar 1993. 33-60, 219, 221 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article reviews the successive conceptualizations of the phenomenon known as the 'informal sector' in Latin America, describes the measurement strategies used to study that sector, and examines ways in which the current state of knowledge about the informal sector affects development policies. We first present an overview of the demographic and economic context in which the phenomenon of informality arose. Broadly speaking, the concept refers to various forms of precarious or subterranean employment concentrated in urban areas, chiefly in the developing world. Among the various schools of thought on the informal economy there is agreement that a fundamental reason for its emergence was accelerated rural-urban migration and the labor surplus that it generated in the cities."
Correspondence: A. Portes, Johns Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21218. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30620 Ronsen, Marit. Norwegian women's labour force participation one year after first birth. Working Papers from Department for Statistics on Individuals and Households: Population and Living Conditions, Vol. 4, 1992. 141-66 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng.
"With data from the Norwegian Family and Occupation Survey of 1988 we...study the labour market adaptation of mothers of small children...[and] focus on the labour market adaptation one year after birth....Besides giving a brief description of the development in the employment activity of mothers one year after the birth of their first child, we shall devote much attention to the determinants of the (re)entry into the labour market."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30621 Webster, E. M. Labour market forecasting in Australia: the science of the art. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 9, No. 2, Nov 1992. 185-205 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This article, which is written for the non-economist, overviews recent attempts at labour market forecasting in Australia and summarizes contemporary views on their contribution towards enhancing the efficiency of the Australian labour market. Current methods of forecasting are described and assessed purely from a theoretical perspective. The paper does not attempt to assess the accuracy or otherwise of Australian labour market forecasts...."
Correspondence: E. M. Webster, Bureau of Immigration Research, P.O. Box 659, Carlton South, Victoria 3053, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30622 Yang, Chingli. Changes in the labor force in Taiwan: 1979-1990. Journal of Population Studies, No. 15, Dec 1992. 47-59 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the effect of age composition on labor force participation rate as well as the change in age-specific labor force participation rate for both males and females in Taiwan....Data [are] obtained from the Taiwan Manpower Utilization Survey from 1979 to 1990. Results from the standardization analyses indicated that the age composition change from 1979 to 1990 has a leveling effect on the labor force participation rate (LFPR) for both males and females. During the period of time, rate of male labor force participation has...decreased while female labor force participation rate has...increased and then [leveled] off."
Correspondence: C. Yang, Academia Sinica, Institute of Social Science and Philosophy, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1993-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.