Volume 59 - Number 3 - Fall 1993

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

59:30039 Borah, Woodrow. A comment on the "sixteenth-century population decline in the Basin of Mexico: a systems simulation" by Thomas M. Whitmore. Latin American Population History Bulletin, No. 23, Spring 1993. 16-7 pp. Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
The author comments on an article by Thomas M. Whitmore, entitled "Sixteenth-century population decline in the Basin of Mexico: a systems simulation", which appeared in the Fall 1991 issue of the Latin American Population History Bulletin.
For a version of the article by Whitmore, published in 1991, see 57:40074.
Correspondence: W. Borah, University of California, Department of History, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30040 Gel'fand, V. S. Population of the USSR over the last 50 years (1941-1990): a statistical factbook. [Naselenie SSSR za 50 let (1941-1990): statisticheskii spravochnik.] ISBN 5-230-09303-X. 1992. 285 pp. Izdatel'stvo Permskogo Universiteta: Perm, Russia. In Rus.
This book presents selected demographic data for the USSR for the period 1941-1990 by individual year. Statistics are provided on age and sex distribution, birth and death rates by age and sex, and life expectancy. A brief analysis of the data and a description of the methodology used to extrapolate them are included.
Correspondence: Izdatel'stvo Permskogo Universiteta, ul. Bukireva 15, 614600 Perm, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30041 Sheel, Alok. Long-term demographic trends in south Bihar: Gaya and Shahabad districts, 1811-1921. Indian Economic and Social History Review, Vol. 29, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1992. 323-48 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is a study of demographic trends in two regions of Bihar state, India, over the period 1811-1921, based on data from official sources such as the census. The author notes that the region can be divided into two zones. In the more developed north, development led to improved communications and better supplies, but facilitated the spread of highly contagious diseases. In the undeveloped south, repeated subsistence crises resulted in periodic increases in mortality, which kept population growth in check. This balance changed after 1919 and was followed by a period of population growth.
Correspondence: A. Sheel, Indian Administrative Service, New Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

59:30042 Bell, William R. Using information from demographic analysis in post-enumeration survey estimation. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 88, No. 423, Sep 1993. 1,106-18 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Population estimates from the 1990 Post-Enumeration Survey (PES), used to measure decennial census undercount, were obtained from dual system estimates (DSE's) that assumed independence within strata defined by age-race-sex-geography and other variables. We make this independence assumption for females, but develop methods to avoid the independence assumption for males within strata by using national level sex ratios from demographic analysis (DA)....We consider several...alternative DSE's, and use DA results for 1990 to apply them to data from the 1990 U.S. census and PES."
Correspondence: W. R. Bell, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Statistical Research Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

59:30043 Hollmann, Federick W. U.S. population estimates, by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin: 1980 to 1991. Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 1095, Feb 1993. xxi, 31 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents annual estimates of the resident population of the United States by single years of age (to 64, with 5-year groups to 100), sex, race, and Hispanic origin....All estimates are consistent with the national population as enumerated on these dates, and are not adjusted for net underenumeration. Included in this report is a distribution of the year-to-year change in the resident population from April 1, 1980, to January 1, 1992, by its major components: births, deaths, and net immigration."
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30044 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1992. Population Estimates Series, No. 65, 1993. 83 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates for Japan as a whole and for each prefecture for 1992 are presented by age and sex. Estimates of the resident foreign population are included.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30045 Levy, Michel L. The population of France in 1992. [La population de la France en 1992.] Population et Societes, No. 278, Apr 1993. 1-3 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Population estimates are provided for France for January 1, 1993. They show a steady level of growth of about 0.5 percent for the year, but one that is increasingly the result of immigration rather than natural increase.
Correspondence: M. L. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30046 Mattson, Mark T. Atlas of the 1990 census. ISBN 0-02-897302-X. LC 92-24006. 1992. viii, 168 pp. Macmillan: New York, New York. In Eng.
Results from the first tabulations of data from the 1990 U.S. census are presented in a series of maps. The atlas is divided into six parts concerned with population, households, housing, race and ethnicity, the economy, and education. The section on population includes maps on population density, population change, age distribution, population projections, rural-urban population, and vital statistics, including births, deaths, infant mortality, and induced abortion.
Correspondence: Macmillan Publishing, 866 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10022. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30047 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population. English Selection, Vol. 3, 1991. 215-35 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
Current levels and trends in population growth and characteristics for Europe during 1989 and 1990 are estimated. Births, deaths, fertility, nuptiality, divorce, abortion, and life expectancy data are presented in tabular format. Selected statistics for other developed countries are included.
This is a translation of the article published in French in 1991 and cited in 58:10071.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30048 Palagiano, Cosimo; Scifoni, Maria G. The population of Italy according to provisional data from the 1991 census. [La population de l'Italie d'apres les donnees provisoires du recensement de 1991.] Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 1, 1993. 113-23 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre.
Provisional data from the 1991 general census of Italy are presented and analyzed. The data, which are in tabular and map form, cover population size and growth rates for the country and by region, economic activity and labor force participation rates, and family and household characteristics. Some comparative data for 1981 are also provided.
Correspondence: C. Palagiano, Universita di Roma La Sapienza, Istituto di Geografia, Piazzale Aldo Moro 5, 00185 Rome, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30049 Seychelles. Management and Information Systems Division [MISD] (Victoria, Seychelles). The population of Seychelles, 1987-2012. 1992. 40 pp. Victoria, Seychelles. In Eng.
This report "includes the Mid-year population estimates [for the Seychelles] from the years 1987-1992, population projections from 1992 onwards, fertility, mortality, trends, migration, life table analysis etc. This report is written in two parts; Part A covers the Projections and Part B the Mid-1992 Population estimates. The Appendix includes tabulations from the years 1987-2012."
Correspondence: Management and Information Systems Division, P.O. Box 206, Victoria, Seychelles. Location: Stanford University Library, Stanford, CA. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 136, Apr 1993.

59:30050 Steenkamp, H. A. Population estimates for the RSA by magisterial district, 1993. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 202, ISBN 0-947459-45-6. 1993. vii, 60 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population estimates are presented for the four major population groups in South Africa by magisterial district for 1993. The estimates were developed using the censal-ratio method.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30051 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). How we're changing. Demographic state of the nation: 1993. Current Population Reports, Series P-23: Special Studies, No. 184, Feb 1993. 4 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This is an overview of some major demographic findings reported by the [U.S.] Census Bureau since January 1992."
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30052 Vallat, Colette. Italy: first results from the 1991 census. [Italie: les premiers resultats du recensement de 1991.] Population, Vol. 48, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1993. 482-9 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Preliminary results from the 1991 census of Italy are presented and compared with previous census statistics. Data concern the total resident population, changes in age and sex distribution, number and size of families, foreign residents, and employment by region.
Correspondence: C. Vallat, Universite de Paris VII, 2 place Jussieu, 75221 Paris Cedex 05, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30053 Zaslavsky, Alan M. Combining census, dual-system, and evaluation study data to estimate population shares. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 88, No. 423, Sep 1993. 1,092-105 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"The 1990 [U.S.] census and Post-Enumeration Survey produced census and dual system estimates (DSE) of population by domain, together with an estimated sampling covariance matrix of the DSE. Estimates of the bias of the DSE were derived from various PES evaluation programs. Of the three sources, the unadjusted census is the least variable but is believed to be the most biased, the DSE is less biased but more variable, and the bias estimates may be regarded as unbiased but are the most variable. This article addresses methods for combining the census, the DSE, and bias estimates obtained from the evaluation programs to produce accurate estimates of population shares, as measured by weighted squared- or absolute-error loss functions applied to estimated population shares of domains."
Correspondence: A. M. Zaslavsky, Harvard University, Department of Statistics, Cambridge, MA 02139. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

59:30054 Adam, Abbas Y. The ABS population projections: overview and evaluation. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 9, No. 2, Nov 1992. 109-30 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper provides a brief history of the ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics] projection [service] in the context of its role as the central statistical agency in Australia. It also presents an overview of the methodology used for generating the projections and details the procedures used for compiling the various components of change incorporated in the projections. The accuracy of the ABS past projections is assessed by comparing their results, both at the national and state/territory levels, with corresponding estimated resident population figures. The paper also describes the range of projection services currently provided by the ABS, lists present unmet needs and indicates some of the developments likely to occur in the future in satisfying unmet demand, consolidation of existing services and dissemination of output." The evaluation concerns the period from 1978 to the present.
Correspondence: A. Y. Adam, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Demography Section, P.O. Box 10, Belconnen, ACT 2616, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30055 Ahlburg, Dennis A. The Census Bureau's new projections of the U.S. population. Population and Development Review, Vol. 19, No. 1, Mar 1993. 159-74, 220, 223 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
The author reviews revised population projections from the U.S. Bureau of the Census, which provides "annual figures for the number of Americans from 1992 to 2050 by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin. It also provides estimates of annual numbers of births, deaths, and inmigrants. As in previous reports, notably the 1989 report that this new publication supersedes, a number of alternative projections are given for those who do not like what the Census Bureau calls its 'best estimate' of the future population."
Correspondence: D. A. Ahlburg, University of Minnesota, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30056 Ananta, Aris; Arifin, Evi N. Projection of Indonesian population: 1990-2020. Population Projection Series, No. 2, ISBN 979-525-005-1. Jan 1991. iii, 39 pp. University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
Population projections for Indonesia are presented in tabular format up to 2020 by age and sex.
Correspondence: University of Indonesia, Faculty of Economics, Demographic Institute, Jalan Salemba Raya 4, Jakarta 10430, Indonesia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30057 Bell, Martin; Skinner, Jim. Forecast accuracy of Australian subnational population projections. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 9, No. 2, Nov 1992. 207-35 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
The authors assess demographic projections made over the last 20 years for Australia. "This paper first considers the role of accuracy amongst other objectives of projection activity. Accepting accuracy as a legitimate goal, we then assess the performance of 48 sets of population projections and forecasts for states and territories of Australia prepared since 1970. Projection accuracy is assessed by reference to length of forecast horizon, population size and rate of growth. We also examine the main sources of forecast error in selected projections for each state and compare the performance of past projections with alternatives based on simple extrapolation of contemporary population trends."
Correspondence: M. Bell, University of Queensland, Department of Geographical Sciences and Planning, Applied Population Research Unit, Queensland 4068, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30058 Bell, Martin. Projections and forecasts. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 9, No. 2, Nov 1992. 103-235 pp. Australian Population Association: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This volume is...dedicated to a specific topic--namely demographic projections and forecasts [in Australia]....The six papers which follow were selected to exemplify the scope and diversity of...forecasting...."
Correspondence: Australian Population Association, P.O. Box 583, Indooroopilly, Queensland 4068, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30059 Calitz, J. M. Southern African population projections, 1995-2005. No. CIA/7, ISBN 0-947057-80-3. Apr 1991. v, 164 pp. Development Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Information Analysis: Halfway House, South Africa. In Eng.
Population projections are presented for Southern Africa up to the year 2005. Southern Africa is defined as South Africa including the independent Bantustans. The projections are provided separately by age, sex, and major ethic group for the region as a whole, and by development regions, magisterial districts, and urban and rural areas.
Correspondence: Development Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Information Analysis, Information Clearing House, P.O. Box 1234, Halfway House 1685, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30060 Congdon, Peter. Statistical graduation in local demographic analysis and projection. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 156, No. 2, 1993. 237-70 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper considers parametric graduation for mortality, fertility and migration with particular reference to the development of parameterized local and regional demographic projections. Parametric graduations facilitate comparisons of demographic schedules across many areas and across time points--a feature which can be used to advantage in making forecasts of the three demographic components and thus in setting the assumptions for projections. Particular methodological issues raised are the questions of parsimony in fit and...of overdispersion in relation to binomial or Poisson assumptions. The analysis is illustrated with cross-sectional material for the 32 London boroughs and with time series at the level of Greater London."
Correspondence: P. Congdon, Directorate of Public Health Medicine, Barking, Havering and Brentwood Health Authority, The Grange, Haroldwood Hospital, Gubbins Lane, Romford RM3 0BE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:30061 Davenport, Peter; O'Leary, John. The Victorian population projection framework. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 9, No. 2, Nov 1992. 131-52 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The Victorian Department of the Treasury has responsibility for preparation of demographic forecasts for use by state government departments and agencies. This paper provides a detailed description of the projection system and models developed by Treasury to produce population and household forecasts for the state, statistical divisions and Statistical Local Areas of Victoria [Australia]. Particular emphasis is given to use of a 'tops down' approach to integrate projections at different geographic levels, methods of reconciling forecasts of household growth with land supply and techniques used to project the inter-SLA migration flows in a multi-regional cohort-component framework."
Correspondence: P. Davenport, Telecom Spatial Decision Systems, Locked Bag 27, Box Hill, Victoria 3128, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30062 Decker, Christopher. New population projections and their impact on the labor force. Review of the U.S. Economy, Winter 1992-1993. 11-8 pp. Lexington, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study...is twofold. The first section compares the underlying assumptions and results of the new [U.S.] Census population projections with the 1988 forecasts. The second section presents the results of an econometric analysis of U.S. labor-force participation rates by age/gender cohort, and the implications for each group's future participation rate based on these new population projections."
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

59:30063 Diez Nicolas, Juan. The population of the Mediterranean. [La poblacion del Mediterraneo.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 11, No. 1, 1993. 9-20 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The author examines and compares demographic trends in 17 Mediterranean countries and makes projections to the year 2020. Social consequences of these trends are assessed.
Correspondence: J. Diez Nicolas, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30064 Edmonston, Barry; Passel, Jeffrey S. The future immigrant population of the United States. Program for Research on Immigration Policy Discussion Paper, No. PRIP-UI-19, Feb 1992. i, 44, [3] pp. Urban Institute, Program for Research on Immigration Policy: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper describes a population projection based on a new methodology which retains information on the generational composition of the future U.S. population; i.e., the projection provides separate information on the foreign-born and native-born populations. The principal results are projections of the major racial/ethnic groups of the U.S. population for the next fifty years (for 1990 to 2040), by generation. The paper also briefly describes overall projections through 2090."
Correspondence: Urban Institute, Publications Office, P.O. Box 7273, Department C, Washington, D.C. 20044. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30065 Fassmann, Heinz; Findl, Peter; Munz, Rainer. The effects of international migration on Austria: scenarios of regional population trends for 1991-2031, prepared by the Austrian Academy of Science's Institute for Demography. [Die Auswirkungen der internationalen Wanderungen auf Osterreich: Szenarien zur regionalen Bevolkerungsentwicklung 1991-2031 des Instituts fur Demographie der Osterreichischen Akademie der Wissenschaften.] Osterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz [OROK] Schriftenreihe, No. 89, 1991. 194 pp. Osterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz [OROK]: Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
The effects of international migration on future population trends in Austria are analyzed for the period 1991-2031. The migration potential of the post-socialist countries of Eastern Europe is first considered. Projected changes in Austrian population size, regional distribution, age structure, labor market, and housing are then examined.
Correspondence: Osterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz, Annagasse 5, 1010 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30066 Forster, Matthias. The new federal states: forecast of their demographic-economic development, 1990 to 2040. [Die neuen Bundeslander: Prognose ihrer demographisch-okonomischen Entwicklung, 1990 bis 2040.] ISBN 3-86032-002-5. 1992. 133, [21] pp. Peter Lang: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
Forecasts of demographic trends in the former East Germany are presented for the period 1990-2040. Trends in age and sex structure and in age-specific labor force participation are considered, and the probable economic impact of future demographic trends is analyzed. Comparative data for the former West Germany are also provided.
Correspondence: Peter Lang, Eschborner Landstrasse 42-50, Postfach 940225, 6000 Frankfurt 90, Germany. Location: University of California Library, Berkeley, CA.

59:30067 Hablicsek, Laszlo. Population projections in Hungary: methods, assumptions and results. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 75, 1992. 159-70 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng.
The author examines and compares population projections prepared for Hungary since the 1960s, some of which cover the period up to 2051.
Correspondence: L. Hablicsek, Demographic Research Institute, Posta fio'k 78, 1364 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30068 Hohn, Charlotte; Stortzbach, Bernd. Population projections for the countries of the European Community. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 75, 1992. 171-89 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng.
"Methods and results of different population projections for the countries of the European Community [EC] are...presented. First of all the aims and contents of population projections are discussed. Secondly the methods and assumptions of different population projections for the countries of the EC are compared. Finally the results of such projections are shown and discussed."
Correspondence: C. Hohn, Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, 6200 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30069 Ironmonger, D. S.; Lloyd-Smith, C. W. Projections of households and household populations by household size propensities. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 9, No. 2, Nov 1992. 153-68 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper describes a method for constructing projections of numbers of households of various types and the numbers of people in that structure. The method uses the concept of household size propensity....Using data from the 1981 and 1986 Censuses and population projections to the year 2011, the method produces projections of Australian households and household populations by size of household for five-year intervals from 1991 to 2011."
Correspondence: D. S. Ironmonger, University of Melbourne, Department of Economics, Households Research Unit, Parkville, Victoria 3052, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30070 Jozwiak, Janina. Demographic prospects of Poland according to different projection assumptions. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 75, 1992. 143-57 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng.
The author examines population projections prepared in the 1980s for Poland. "The aim of the paper is to present and compare the assumptions of these projections and to discuss some of the resulting differences and similarities in [the] predicted demographic future of [the] population of Poland."
Correspondence: J. Jozwiak, Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 00-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30071 Kaneko, Takeharu; Ishikawa, Akira; Inaba, Hisashi; Bando, Rieko. Population projections by prefecture: 1990-2010. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 48, No. 4, Jan 1993. 16-23 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population projections for Japan are presented to the year 2010. Data are included by prefecture and for five-year increments by age group from 1990-2010.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30072 Kotowska, Irena E. On the improvement of demographic forecasting in Poland. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 75, 1992. 191-209 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Eng.
"In the paper attempts at improving demographic projections, undertaken in Poland in the late 1980s, are discussed." The focus is on the use of the LIPRO (LIfe-style PROjections) model, developed by the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute. The model is used "to project changes in marital composition of Poland's population by place of residence (urban/rural areas) till 2050....In the paper, the brief description of the marital status version of the LIPRO model is given and the selected results of projections for the period 1985-2050 are discussed to illustrate the usefulness of that approach."
Correspondence: I. E. Kotowska, Szkola Glowna Handlowa, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodleglosci 162, 00-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30073 Miller, H. Max; Tarver, James D. The future population of Botswana. Eastern Africa Economic Review, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jun 1991. 85-91 pp. Nairobi, Kenya. In Eng.
Population projections by age and sex are presented for Botswana up to the year 2001, as are estimates for 1991. The data are from the 1981 census.
Correspondence: H. M. Miller, University of Georgia, Department of Sociology, Athens, GA 30602. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:30074 Sadie, J. L. A projection of the South African population, 1991-2011. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 196, ISBN 0-947459-39-1. 1993. vii, 58 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
"This report contains projections of the population [of South Africa] by population group, gender and age at five-year intervals until the year 2011."
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, P.O. Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30075 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). 1950-2025: Latin America population projections. [America Latina proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 26, No. 51, Jan 1993. 160 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
Projections and estimates of the total population of Latin America and its 20 constituent countries are presented by sex and five-year age group for the period 1950-2025. Data are also provided for Latin America as a whole on fertility, life expectancy, infant mortality, mortality, migration, and dependency.
Correspondence: UN Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30076 Vasicek, Pavel. Comment on demographic development in the territorial units of the Czech Republic up to 2010. [Komentar k demografickemu vyvoji uzemnich jednotek v CR do roku 2010.] Zpravy Geografickeho Ustavu CSAV, Vol. 28, No. 1, 1991. 25-38 pp. Brno, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
Population dynamics in the districts of the Czech Republic are estimated for the period 1987-2010. The author finds that "the changes in the territorial dislocation of the population will result above all from migration; a less important role is played...by regional [differences in] natural increase."
Correspondence: P. Vasicek, Geograficky Ustav CSAV, Mendlovo nam. 1, 662 82, Brno, Czech Republic. Location: Duke University Library, Durham, NC.

59:30077 Yanagashita, Machiko. Slow growth will turn to decline of the Japanese population. Population Today, Vol. 21, No. 5, May 1993. 4-5 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Trends in population size and growth in Japan since 1930 are analyzed and projections to 2090 are made. A decline in population size is projected.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

59:30078 Calitz, J. M.; Grove, M. J. A regional profile of the Southern African population and its urban and non-urban distribution, 1970-1990. Demographic Information, No. 2, ISBN 0-947057-74-9. Feb 1991. vii, 163 pp. Development Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Information Analysis: Halfway House, South Africa. In Eng.
This report presents a quantitative analysis of the size, structure, and distribution of the population of South Africa. It is based on a demographic data base created at the Development Bank of Southern Africa using official sources such as the census. The bulk of the publication is made up of statistical tables on the population for the period 1980-1990 by age and sex, educational status, major ethnic group, and urban and rural residence. Data are presented for the whole country, development regions, and magisterial districts.
Correspondence: Development Bank of Southern Africa, Centre for Information Analysis, Information Clearing House, P.O. Box 1234, Halfway House 1685, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30079 Khalatbari, Parviz. Extent and consequences of current population growth. [Ausmass und Konsequenzen des gegenwartigen Bevolkerungswachstums.] In: Vortrage auf den Tagungen des Arbeitskreises "Demographie der Entwicklungslander" der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft in Kiedrich und in Bielefeld. 1992. 59-81 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
Trends in world population growth over the last half-century are reviewed, projections to 2025 are examined, and contrasts between developing and developed countries are discussed. The causes and socioeconomic consequences of the population explosion in developing countries are then analyzed.
Correspondence: P. Khalatbari, Parkaue 3, 0-1156 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30080 Koledarov, Petar. The Bulgarian population censuses of 1878, 1912, 1928, and 1968. [Broi na Balgarite--1878, 1912, 1928, 1968 g.] Naselenie, Vol. 8, No. 4, 1990. 79-98 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"Having studied a number of original sources and statistical data, the author reviews the Bulgarian population censuses in 1878, 1912, 1928 and 1968. He analyses the causes for the population's small number which does not correspond to the long historical existence of the Bulgarian nationality. The author finds its basic cause in the long Ottoman domination which was connected with physical destruction, purposeful Islamisation and assimilation, and mass deportation of large groups of Bulgarians."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:30081 Paiva, Clotilde A.; Libby, Douglas C. A middle path: slavery and natural increase in nineteenth-century Minas Gerais. Latin American Population History Bulletin, No. 23, Spring 1993. 2-15 pp. Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This article challenges the conventional notion that all regions of Brazil...were entirely dependent upon the international slave trade for the maintenance or growth of their slave populations....The arguments will be based on data relating to the nineteenth-century slave population of the province of Minas Gerais....Despite the size of its slave contingent, Minas Gerais was at best weakly linked to the export sector....In light of data from the 1830s it will be argued that this economic transformation away from the export sector had a profound impact on slave demography....New evidence shows that the Mineiro slave population achieved a positive rate of natural increase within a single generation of the termination of the Atlantic slave trade."
Correspondence: C. A. Paiva, Universidad de Minas Gerais, CEDEPLAR, Rua Curitiba, 832-9 andar, 30.170 Belo Horizonte, MG, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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