Volume 59 - Number 2 - Summer 1993

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

59:20788 Courgeau, Daniel; Lelievre, Eva. Event history analysis in demography. ISBN 0-19-828738-0. LC 92-2511. 1992. ix, 226 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This study, translated from the original French, concerns the application of event history analysis to the study of demography. "The point is to see how an event of a family, economic or other nature experienced by the individual will change the probability of other events happening to him over his lifetime. We shall, for instance, try to discover how his marriage can influence his professional career, his spatial mobility and other occurrences, such as the birth of a child or a break with his original family ties." The authors first examine methods for collecting event histories and problems involved in studying incomplete histories collected from a sample of individuals. The methods of analysis are then formalized, starting with the study of an event, proceeding to the study of the interactions between two events, and then extending such non-parametric models to cover more complex situations. The authors then examine parametric models that permit the study of the effect of many characteristics on duration of stay in a given state. Finally, semi-parametric models that combine both approaches are considered and illustrated. Some computer programs for carrying out event history analyses are provided in the appendix.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, Walton Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20789 Haag, G.; Mueller, U.; Troitzsch, K. G. Economic evolution and demographic change: formal models in social sciences. Lecture Notes in Economics and Mathematical Systems, Vol. 395, ISBN 0-387-56172-2. 1992. xvi, 409 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The papers in this volume were originally presented either at the Interdisciplinary Colloquium on Forecasting for Systems with Chaotic Evolution, held in April 1991 at the University of Stuttgart, Germany, or at a seminar entitled Formal Models in Demography, held in December 1991 in Mannheim, Germany. "Of the many papers presented at these two meetings, a selection with a common orientation towards evolution and adjustment processes in economy, demography, and geography is published in this volume....The main purpose of this book is to make a contribution to the interdisciplinary work needed to integrate the efforts between these three research fields and to serve as a research source in demonstrating the current state of art in dynamic modelling."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Springer-Verlag, 536 Broadway, New York, NY 10012. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:20790 Hoddinott, John. Migration, accumulation and old age security in western Kenya. Pub. Order No. BRD-97788. 1989. 278 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study applies the concept of bargaining models to the analysis of household accumulation using data from Kenya. The study was developed as a doctoral dissertation at Oxford University, England.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 53(9).

59:20791 Hoem, Jan M. The usefulness of moving-average graduation in the analysis of demographic time series. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 70, ISBN 91-7820-058-X. Sep 1992. 24 pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"In this paper, some of our recent experiences with the optimal moving-average graduation of demographic time series is presented. The method is illustrated by an application to a recent series of the monthly total fertility rate for Sweden as well as to historical time series that reflect the (first) demographic transition in Denmark and Sweden."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20792 Kim, Young J.; Schoen, Robert. Crossovers that link populations with the same vital rates. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 4, No. 1, 1993. 1-19 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"In this paper, we consider crossovers of demographic density distributions from...populations that have the same fertility and mortality rates. We focus on observed populations and their associated stationary and stable models, and on proportional distributions of persons, births, deaths and reproductive values....Three different populations were selected to represent a range of demographic behavior. Those populations are Japan 1963, a low mortality, low fertility population; Togo 1961, a high mortality, high fertility population; and the United States 1919-1921, a population whose fertility and mortality are intermediate."
Correspondence: Y. J. Kim, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20793 Lancaster, Tony. The econometric analysis of transition data. Econometric Society Monograph, No. 17, ISBN 0-521-26596-7. LC 89-17386. 1990. xii, 352 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
Methods for analyzing transition data are investigated. "In the first part of the book...we shall describe ways of building models for fitting to transition data....The emphasis in these chapters is on the simplest type of transition data, that in which we observe an individual's duration of stay in a single state....The second part of the book deals with inference--the use of models to interpret data....[The focus is on] problems of identification that have arisen in the econometrics literature..., models involving...fully and semi-parametric inference, [and] questions of model misspecification...."
Correspondence: Cambridge University Press, Pitt Building, Trumpington Street, Cambridge CB2 1RP, England. Location: State University of New York Library, Stony Brook, New York.

59:20794 Li, Hang. Grey system theory for population geographers. In: The geographical approach to fertility, edited by Jurgen Bahr and Paul Gans. 1991. 29-39 pp. Universitat Kiel, Geographisches Institut: Kiel, Germany. In Eng.
The author describes the Grey System Theory (GST), developed in China to enable analysis to be done with a limited amount of data. "The idea of GST is to pick out clear (white) information from the inside of a system." Its applications to analysis, model-building, forecasting, decision making, and controlling the developmet of an objective are described. Urbanization data for China for the periods 1952-1978 and 1978-1984 are compared to illustrate the theory.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:20795 Mroz, Thomas A.; Guilkey, David K. Discrete factor approximation for use in simultaneous equation models with both continuous and discrete endogenous variables. Carolina Population Center Paper, No. 92-03, Jul 1992. 44, [9] pp. University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center: Chapel Hill, North Carolina. In Eng.
"This paper explores the performance of discrete factor estimation procedures for use in estimating mixed continuous-discrete models with endogenous explanatory variables."
Correspondence: University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square, 143 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20796 Nath, Dilip C.; Datta, Jishnu. An alternative to multiregional two-sex model. Genus, Vol. 48, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1992. 123-31 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"In this paper, we shall present an alternative approach to obtain for a multiregional population female birth models that become stable, considering age difference of parents and making use of sex ratio(s)."
Correspondence: D. C. Nath, Gauhati University, Department of Statistics, Gauhati 781 014, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:20797 Schenker, Nathaniel; Treiman, Donald J.; Weidman, Lynn. Analyses of public use decennial census data with multiply imputed industry and occupation codes. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics, Vol. 42, No. 3, 1993. 545-56 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper gives a brief introduction to multiple imputation for handling non-response in surveys. We then describe a recently completed project in which multiple imputation was used to recalibrate industry and occupation codes in 1970 U.S. census public use samples to the 1980 standard. Using analyses of data from the project, we examine the utility of analysing a large data set having imputed values compared with analysing a small data set having true values, and we provide examples of the amount by which variability is underestimated by using just one imputation rather than multiple imputations."
Correspondence: N. Schenker, University of California, School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics, Los Angeles, CA 90024-1772. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

59:20798 Schmidbauer, Harald. Some aspects of competing risks in demography. In: Economic evolution and demographic change: formal models in social sciences, edited by G. Haag, U. Mueller, and K. G. Troitzsch. 1992. 294-305 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"In the present paper, we reviewed some ways of handling the nonidentification problem in the latent failure approach to the competing risk analysis." The author discusses "the problem of nonidentifiability of the joint distribution of the latent failure times [and]...suggestions which have been made in order to deal with this problem....An elementary discrete-time method of risk elimination [is reviewed and]...the relations of the two methods of risk elimination--one in continuous time and one in discrete time--are studied. Finally, a numerical example of risk elimination is given...which is based on a [West] German life table."
Correspondence: H. Schmidbauer, Universitat Munchen, Seminar fur Angewandte Stochastik, 8000 Munich 22, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:20799 Winkelmann, Rainer; Zimmermann, Klaus F. Recursive probability estimators for count data. In: Economic evolution and demographic change: formal models in social sciences, edited by G. Haag, U. Mueller, and K. G. Troitzsch. 1992. 321-9 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New York/Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper discusses statistical models for count data in a unifying framework." The additive-log-differenced probability (ALDP) and the Katz 3 models are discussed and compared to a Poisson model, using fertility data for 720 married West German women aged 40-65 in 1985. "Both the Katz and the A.L.D.P. model offer a substantial generalization with respect to the Poisson model....In both regressions, the variable age at marriage is highly significant."
Correspondence: R. Winkelmann, University of Munich, Geschwister-Scholl-Platz 7, 8000 Munich 22, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

59:20800 Wood, James W.; Holman, Darryl J.; Weiss, Kenneth M.; Buchanan, Anne V.; LeFor, Belinda. Hazards models for human population biology. Population Research Institute Working Paper, No. 1992-16, Jul 1992. 55, [14] pp. Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute: University Park, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"This paper is a review of statistical techniques drawn from the field of hazards analysis that appear to be particularly appropriate for the study of biodemographic events and processes."
Correspondence: Pennsylvania State University, Population Research Institute, 22 Burrowes Building, University Park, PA 16802-6202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1993-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.