Volume 59 - Number 1 - Spring 1993

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

59:10756 Anderson, R. M.; May, R. M.; Ng, T. W.; Rowley, J. T. Age-dependent choice of sexual partners and the transmission dynamics of HIV in Sub-Saharan Africa. Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society of London: B. Biological Sciences, Vol. 336, No. 1277, May 29, 1992. 135-55 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"A mathematical model of the transmission of HIV-1 within heterosexual populations in Sub-Saharan Africa is described and its properties analysed. The model incorporates epidemiological and demographic processes and extends previous work in this area via the inclusion of age and sex dependency in rates of sexual partner change, and sexual partner choice dependent on age. Parameter assignments are made on the basis of current data on the transmission dynamics of HIV-1 and the demography of human populations in Africa....The paper includes an assessment of the influence of the timing of changes in sexual behaviour, or the promotion of the use of condoms, on the predicted course of the epidemic." The authors conclude that the spread of AIDS could reverse population growth rates from positive to negative over the course of a few decades.
Correspondence: R. M. Anderson, London University, Imperial College, Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, London SW7 2BB, England. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

59:10757 Merkle, Lucie; Zimmermann, Klaus F. The demographics of labour turnover: a comparison of ordinal probit and censored count data models. Recherches Economiques de Louvain, Vol. 58, No. 3-4, 1992. 283-306, 488 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The authors use date collected in 1977 on unemployed residents of West Germany aged 15-54 years old to compare two statistical models used to analyze labor market mobility. "Two classes of statistical models seem appropriate for this type of analysis, the ordinal probit model assuming a latent continuous variable behind the observables, and the count data approach with prominent members as the Poisson and the negative binomial model....The first point of interest is to explore whether both approaches lead to similar findings....We outline some approaches...that enable a...researcher to judge the quality of the estimated model....[Then] we compare the performance of the ordinal probit and count data models. Section 2 presents data and hypotheses. Section 3 discusses the econometric methodology. Section 4 contains the empirical results and the model comparisons."
Correspondence: L. Merkle, Universitat Munchen, Goethestrasse 31, 8000 Munich 2, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10758 Morphet, Clive. The interpretation of small area census data. Area, Vol. 24, No. 1, Mar 1992. 63-72 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author suggests that the use of small-area statistics from the 1991 British census will require consideration of a number of simple statistical issues. The issues identified are discussed and some operational procedures for dealing with them are proposed.
Correspondence: C. Morphet, Newcastle Polytechnic, Ellison Place, Newcastle upon Tyne NE1 8ST, England. Location: New York Public Library, New York, NY.

59:10759 Rajulton, Fernando. Life history analysis: guidelines for using the program LIFEHIST (PC version). Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 92-5, ISBN 0-7714-1397-1. Apr 1992. 27 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
The author discusses life history data and its analysis using Markov, semi-Markov, and non-Markov models. The models' "basic concepts relevant to life history analysis are described...with minimal mathematical discussions....Section 2 [then] provides the necessary guidelines for application of these three schemes to any set of life history data through the [PC software] program LIFEHIST. And Section 3 presents illustrations on interpreting the results obtained." Data used are from the 1984 Canadian Fertility Survey.
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10760 Robinson, J. Gregory; Das Gupta, Prithwis; Ahmed, Bashir. A case study in the investigation of errors in estimates of coverage based on demographic analysis: black adults aged 34 to 54 in 1980. In: American Statistical Association, 1990 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1990]. 187-92 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper has discussed the possibility of error in some specific components that are used to develop the demographic estimates of population and coverage for [U.S.] Blacks--namely, births, deaths, base populations (Coale-Rives estimates). The effect of classification error has also been considered. It has been shown that the net effect of these various sources of error is to overstate the current estimates of percent net undercount for Blacks." The focus is on the 1980 census.
For the estimates by Ansley J. Coale and Norfleet W. Rives, published in 1973, see 39:2001.
Correspondence: J. G. Robinson, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, DC 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10761 Treyz, George I.; Rickman, Dan S.; Shao, Gang. The REMI economic-demographic forecasting and simulation model. International Regional Science Review, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1992. 221-53 pp. Morgantown, West Virginia. In Eng.
"This article presents the Regional Economic Models, Inc. (REMI) Economic-Demographic Forecasting and Simulation (EDFS) model, which is used for regional forecasting and policy simulation in both the private and public sectors in the United States. The detailed structure of the model is presented. To illustrate the dynamic simulation properties of the model, results of two sample simulations for a REMI multi-area model of a region in Southern California are presented. Post-sample historical forecasts for all U.S. states are provided to evaluate the forecasting capabilities of the model."
Correspondence: G. I. Treyz, University of Massachusetts, Department of Economics, Amherst, MA 01003. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

59:10762 Valkovics, Emil. The estimation of the relationship between population structure and dynamics for the analysis of Hungary's population development. [A nepessegstruktura es a nepmozgalom kapcsolatara vonatkozo uj becslesi rendszerek gyakorlati alkalmazasa hazank nepessegfejlodesenek elemzesere.] Demografia, Vol. 35, No. 2, 1992. 229-66 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
The author uses three different methods to estimate the relationship between population structure and dynamics using data for the male population of Hungary in 1990. The methods considered are those developed by Preston and Coale, Arthur and Vaupel, and Preston, Himes, and Eggers.
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Karoly U.5-7, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

59:10763 Vanderschrick, Christophe. The Lexis diagram revisited. [Le diagramme de Lexis revisite.] Population, Vol. 47, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1992. 1,241-62 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author analyzes the Lexis diagram, which was formulated in the late nineteenth century, and evaluates similar methods proposed during the period by Becker and Verweij. The question of assigning credit for the methodology is discussed.
Correspondence: C. Vanderschrick, Universite Catholique de Louvain, CIDEP, Place de l'Universite 1, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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