Volume 58 - Number 2 - Summer 1992

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

58:20709 Aliaga, Alfredo; Le, Thanh. Methodology for small-area estimation with DHS samples. In: Demographic and Health Surveys World Conference, August 5-7, 1991, Washington, D.C.: proceedings. Volume 1. 1991. 497-512 pp. Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys [DHS]: Columbia, Maryland. In Eng.
Given the need expressed by several countries participating in the DHS program for survey estimates covering relatively small areas, the authors examine synthetic estimation techniques as a way to provide such estimates. These methods are applied to DHS data on contraceptive use in the Dominican Republic and Egypt during the late 1980s.
Correspondence: A. Aliaga, Institute for Resource Development/Macro International, Demographic and Health Surveys, 8850 Stanford Boulevard, Suite 4000, Columbia, MD 21045. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20710 Arminger, Gerhard; Galler, Heinz. Demographically relevant models and simulation and analysis procedures based on empirical studies. [Demographisch relevante Modellrechnungen, Simulations- und Analyseverfahren auf der Basis empirischer Erhebungen.] Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 72, 1991. 98, [4] pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
The aim of this study is to present a systematic overview and evaluation of various approaches for modelling and projecting household and family structures. Consideration is given to simple and elaborate simulation models at the macro level and to microanalytic simulation models.
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Gustav-Stresemann-Ring 6, Postfach 5528, D-6200 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20711 Blayo, Chantal. The choice of cohorts and sub-cohorts: general rules and their application to abortion. [Choix des cohortes et des sous-cohortes: regles generales et application a l'avortement.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1991. 1,379-403 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author discusses cohort analysis and its use in studying demographic events. She finds that "the events must be classified with respect to the nature of their associated characteristics, and in this paper it is shown how such a classification can be used to determine both the choice of cohort and of the indicators used. It is also important to distinguish between data collected by continuous observation and those which have been obtained retrospectively. These principles are illustrated by applying them to a study of legitimate second-order birth rates [in France], and by a suggested analysis for the study of induced abortions."
Correspondence: C. Blayo, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20712 Bonin, Serge. Graphical representation of population structures. [Representation graphique des structures de population.] Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 3, 1991. 539-47 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Some different methods of graphically representing population data are discussed, including age pyramids and spatial distribution maps. The advantages of each are briefly described and illustrated using data from a variety of countries.
Correspondence: S. Bonin, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, Laboratoire de Graphique, 131 boulevard St. Michel, 75005 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20713 Cauvin, Colette; Enaux, Christophe. From data plotting to map transformation: some proposals for the mapping of population data. [De la cartographie de report a la cartographie transformationnelle: propositions pour la representation de donnees de population.] Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 3, 1991. 487-503 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The authors propose and evaluate some new methods for the spatial representation of population data. Data from France are mapped as illustrations.
Correspondence: C. Cauvin, Universite Louis Pasteur, U.F.R. de Geographie, 12 rue Goethe, 67000 Strasbourg, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20714 Desire, J. The status of population mapping in China, India, Mexico, Hungary, and Slovenia. [Etat de la cartographie des populations en Chine, en Inde, au Mexique, en Hongrie et en Slovenie.] Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 3, 1991. 517-38 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Eng; Fre.
This section contains brief reviews of current population mapping work in progress in China, Hungary, India, Mexico, and Yugoslavia. The summaries, by various authors, are in either French or English.
Correspondence: J. Desire, Universite de Picardie Jules Verne, Centre d'Etudes Geographiques, Atelier de Cartographie, Campus-Rue Solomon Mahlangu, 80025 Amiens Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20715 Engen, Steinar. Sexual mixing models: a comparison of analogue deterministic and stochastic models. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 108, No. 2, Mar 1992. 279-97 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In the present paper problems related to variable sexual activity and nonrandom partner choice are analyzed from a purely theoretical point of view without reference to particular diseases. However, the problems dealt with are of a general character and may be useful to research workers dealing with specific sexually transmitted diseases."
Correspondence: S. Engen, University of Trondheim, Department of Mathematics and Statistics, N-7055 Dragvoll, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

58:20716 France. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED] (Paris, France). A tribute to Roland Pressat. Methods and applications of demographic analysis. [Hommage a Roland Pressat. Methodes et applications de l'analyse demographique.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1991. 1,363-758 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
This special issue presents papers that explore the issues and theories central to the work of demographer Roland Pressat. After an introduction outlining Pressat's contributions to demographic analysis, separate sections contain 15 papers by various authors that consider the principles of analysis and the practice of demography. The geographical scope is worldwide, with some focus on developed countries. A bibliography of Pressat's works is included.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20717 Golata, Elzbieta. Problem of weights in the analysis of demographic phenomena in territorial arrangement. Polish Population Review, No. 1, 1991. 105-22 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Eng.
The author attempts to eliminate the influence of the size of a territorial unit on the results of demographic analysis, using data for Poland as an illustration. She concludes that "the inclusion of weights in statistical analysis allows us to eliminate the impact of the sizes of studied units on the values of counted parameters as well as on the measures of correlation and regression. The existence of a close connection between the results obtained and the sizes of the studied groups within the same population should be always taken into account."
Correspondence: E. Golata, University of Economics, u1. Niepodleglosci 10, 60-967 Poznan, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20718 Henry, Louis. Some reflections on conjunctural demography. [Reflexions sur la conjoncture.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1991. 1,577-88 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The author reviews changes in the study of demography in Europe that led to what is described here as conjunctural demography, or the study of short-term demographic situations. He then discusses the usefulness of conjunctural measures, synthetic measures that summarize such demographic situations.
Correspondence: L. Henry, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20719 Partida Bush, Virgilio. A method for projecting the population according to size of locality. (Application to the case of Mexico's urban population in 1990). [Un metodo para proyectar la poblacion segun tamano de la localidad. (Aplicacion al caso de la poblacion urbana de Mexico en 1990).] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 5, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1990. 387-411, 819-20 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"In this article, a restricted components method is presented (because sex and age are not taken into account) to project the population classified according to the size of the locality....The application is presented for urban centers (15,000 or more inhabitants) of Mexico in 1990, utilizing the trend in demographic growth for the 1960-1980 period." Data are from Mexican censuses conducted in 1960, 1970, and 1980.
Correspondence: V. Partida Bush, Secretaria de Programacion y Presupuesto, Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20720 Pullum, Thomas W. Statistical methods to adjust for date and age misreporting to improve estimates of vital rates in Pakistan. Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 10, No. 2, Feb 1991. 191-200 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
"Misreporting of dates and ages poses serious difficulties for the estimation of the age distribution and birth and death rates in many developing countries. The pervasiveness of these problems is illustrated with data from a well-designed on-going survey in Pakistan, the Pakistan Demographic Survey. Methods for reconciling discrepancies, based on the assumptions of constant misreporting and survivorship patterns, are presented. The reasoning behind these methods could be applied much more generally. Research into the cultural interpretations of age and dates, and the nature of possible biases, is called for."
Correspondence: T. W. Pullum, University of Texas, Population Research Center, Austin, TX 78712. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

58:20721 Rajulton, Fernando. Life history analysis in demography: implications for teaching and research. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 19, No. 1, 1992. 1-16 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author reviews some types of analyses that are possible using life history information that includes data on the timing, sequence, and number of occurrences of specific life events. "This paper aims...at bringing out relevant points regarding two fundamental assumptions in life history analyses: (a) that a specific stochastic process generates events, which can be appropriately analyzed; and, (b) that certain characteristics of individuals, as well as of contexts, affect change processes." The application of Markov, semi-Markov, non-Markov, and hazards models to life history analysis is discussed.
Correspondence: F. Rajulton, University of Western Ontario, Department of Sociology, London, Ontario N6A 3K7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20722 Rose, Brian H. Mortality, economic growth and population growth. Pub. Order No. DA9205284. 1991. 159 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This study involves the development of a theoretical model of the demographic transition and was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the State University of New York at Stony Brook. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 52(9).

58:20723 Sakai, Hiromichi. Frequency distribution of first digit among population. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 47, No. 3, Oct 1991. 74-8 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
A method of checking the accuracy of population distributions by region or age in developing countries is presented. It involves the frequency of the decrease of the first digit in the population number. This law is explained from a simple mathematical model in which a population increases at a fixed rate. The model shows that the time during which the first digit of a population remains the same number decreases as the first digit varies from one to nine.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20724 Salo, Matt T.; Campanelli, Pamela C. Ethnographic methods in the development of census procedures for enumerating the homeless. Urban Anthropology, Vol. 20, No. 2, Summer 1991. 127-40 pp. Brockport, New York. In Eng.
The use of ethnographic methods to estimate the number of homeless persons in the United States is explored. The authors describe how "ethnographic methods were integrated with survey procedures in a 1989 Census Bureau pilot test of an experimental daytime count of homeless persons in Baltimore, MD. We demonstrated that ethnographic techniques do not have to be merely supplemental to survey research, but can play an integral part in shaping the entire procedure. Ethnographic data proved valuable for choosing sites, designing questionnaires and developing new interview approaches, and have since proven equally useful in interpreting the test results."
Correspondence: M. T. Salo, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for Survey Methods Research, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

58:20725 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young J. Covariances, roots, and the dynamics of age-specific growth. Population Index, Vol. 58, No. 1, Spring 1992. 4-17 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"Regularities in age-specific growth rates are explored over age and time, with regard to age-aggregated summary measures and with respect to the spectral decomposition of a population. Using a new approach to the differentiation of population functions, changes in many crude rates are shown to reflect the covariance between age patterns of demographic behavior and age-specific growth. For example, the marginal change in the crude birth rate is simply the covariance between the age-specific schedules of fertility and growth, indicating that the birth rate increases to the extent that ages with higher fertility experience greater growth. Age-specific growth is an important demographic variable because of its ability to relate observed changes to mathematical models of population dynamics."
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Population Dynamics, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

58:20726 Tsai, Shan P.; Hardy, Robert J.; Wen, C. P. The standardized mortality ratio and life expectancy. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 135, No. 7, Apr 1, 1992. 824-31 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This paper describes a theoretical relation between the standardized mortality ratio (SMR), which is commonly used to ascertain the magnitude of risks experienced by a working population, and life expectancy. The authors also attempt "to establish a statistical model for an easy method to convert the SMR of a study population to the corresponding life expectancy for that population." Data are from official sources for 1980 and concern the white population of the United States.
Correspondence: S. P. Tsai, Shell Oil Company, Corporate Medical Department, P.O. Box 2463, Houston, TX 77252-2463. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

58:20727 Valkovics, Emil. Different uses for an indirect method of modeling in demography. [Differentes utilisations d'une methode indirecte de modelisation en demographie.] Population, Vol. 46, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1991. 1,531-50 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"In this study we propose a new indirect model for the representation of increasing or decreasing values of certain demographic variables...[including] the survival function in the life table; cumulative age-specific fertility rates; legitimate age-specific fertility rates; [and] the distribution of married women in a cohort by the number of children they have borne, and the consequent estimation of parity progression ratios, and the distribution of their progeny by birth order....The accuracy of the results yielded by the model suggests its value for forecasting." Data are for France for 1820, Hungary for 1983, and Norway for 1888-1890.
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Maros-u. 27 v. 2, 1122 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1992-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.