Herve. Consequences of population aging on social
expenditures. [L'incidence du vieillissement demographique sur les
depenses sociales.] Actualite Economique, Vol. 67, No. 1, Mar 1991.
103-18 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The impact of demographic aging on social expenditures is examined, with particular reference to Canada. "The merits of four of the mechanisms or means that are proposed to alleviate the additional cost of aging are reviewed: economic growth, increase in the labour force participation rate, economies of scale and [restructuring] of social expenditures. We bring up many uncertainties regarding the mechanisms or means proposed. Therefore we should not take for granted that the effect of aging will be easily absorbed."
Correspondence: H. Gauthier, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).
Inack, Samuel. The school-age population and available
school places in Cameroon: the example of primary and kindergarten
education. [Population scolaire et offre d'education au Cameroun:
cas de l'enseignement primaire et maternel.] Annales de l'IFORD, Vol.
14, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1990. 61-89 pp. Yaounde, Cameroon. In Fre.
The author notes that the educational system in Cameroon is unable to cope adequately with the growth in the demand for places at kindergarten and primary levels. Ways to improve the present situation are explored.
Correspondence: S. Inack Inack, Centre de Recherches Economiques et Demographiques, BP 6323, Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Marie-France. One hundred and fifty years of education in
Togo: summary and perspectives. [Cent cinquante ans de
scolarisation au Togo: bilan et perspectives.] Les Dossiers de l'URD,
ISBN 2-908241-22-6. 1991. 174 pp. Universite du Benin, Unite de
Recherche Demographique [URD]: Lome, Togo. In Fre.
This is a general history of the development of a modern system of education in Togo. The author first describes the educational system in the precolonial era. Then the development of education under the colonial regimes of Germany and France is outlined. Next, the author analyzes educational developments since 1960. A final chapter examines the decline in school enrollment and the increase in school dropouts that occurred during the 1980s.
Correspondence: Universite du Benin, Unite de Recherche Demographique, B.P. 12971, Lome, Togo. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Yousry. Women status index and fertility in Egyptian
governorates. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC
Annual Seminar, 1988. 1989. 19-31 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo,
Egypt. In Eng.
Differences among Egyptian governorates concerning the status of women and the effect of those differences on fertility are analyzed using preliminary data from the 1986 census.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
A. F. Beyond the family: the social organization of human
reproduction. ISBN 0-7456-0885-X. LC 91-9381. 1991. viii, 231 pp.
Polity Press: Cambridge, England. In Eng.
This study is concerned with the social organization of reproduction in modern Western societies. The main theme is that reproduction is not simply a family affair, but one that has helped shape many aspects of modern societies, including such things as salaries, mortgages, suburbs, and social classes. "In the first part of the book I begin by clarifying the relationship between the physical processes of reproduction and such basic social groupings as 'family' and 'household'....Chapters 4 and 5 examine more closely the interdependence of political-economic and reproductive processes. First, I discuss how people come to grips economically and politically with mating, child-rearing and death; and then, turning the coin, I explain how economic processes respond to the need to organize reproduction. In the sixth chapter I shall show how these considerations help us to understand the social and historical significance of broader relations of class, gender and generation.
"In the second part of the book I treat reproduction as an active force in the making of the modern world, tracing the expansion of reproductive organization from households and local communities out into the institutions of modern industrial states. Chapter 8 shows how this analysis can help us to understand the ways in which labour is rewarded in industrial economies, by explaining important differences between wages and salaries. The concluding chapters focus on our ideas about the organization of reproduction....I finally return to the perplexing issues of how we, as social scientists, should interpret reproduction as a social and historical force."
Correspondence: Polity Press, c/o Basil Blackwell, 108 Cowley Road, Oxford OX4 1JF, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Annemette. The restructuring of gender relations in an
aging society. Acta Sociologica, Vol. 34, No. 1, 1991. 45-55 pp.
Oslo, Norway. In Eng.
"In this paper I discuss ways in which gender relations--that is relations of inequality between women and men--may change in aging societies where life expectations are high, fertility low, and where old people constitute a high proportion of the population. The central argument is that the aging society will provide opportunities to develop more egalitarian relations between women and men both in the public and private sphere. Such opportunities will only be realized if the link between gender and the care of children is severed. This is most likely to occur if women's position in the labor market is improved. It is argued that the aging society may indeed have a high demand for women's labor which makes such a development likely."
Correspondence: A. Sorensen, Harvard University, Department of Sociology, William James Hall, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
Scott J. Age structure and public expenditures on
children. Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 72, No. 4, Dec 1991.
661-75 pp. Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"Data for U.S. states are used to examine the relationship between age structure and public expenditures on welfare and education. States with comparatively large child populations spend significantly less per child than states with smaller numbers of children. States with relatively large elderly populations spend slightly less on children. The effects of age structure on public expenditures on children are attributable to lower per capita incomes in states with higher dependency ratios."
Correspondence: S. J. South, State University of New York, Department of Sociology, Albany, NY 12222. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
William A. V.; Morrison, Peter A. Demographic paradoxes in
the Los Angeles voting rights case. Evaluation Review, Vol. 15,
No. 6, Dec 1991. 712-28 pp. Newbury Park, California/London, England.
The difficulties faced by demographically complex U.S. jurisdictions in protecting the voting rights of citizens, ensuring equal representation for equal numbers of persons, and avoiding the dilution of any one group's voting strength as a result of redistricting are assessed. "This article explores how technical demographic analysis can inform--and potentially confuse--judicial consideration of these principles....We evaluate the analysis performed in conjunction with a claim brought against Los Angeles County [California] and focus on three salient issues that this case poses. The key issue (with immediate implications for local redistricting) centers on the trade-off between electoral and representational equality. Apportioning exclusively by either 'persons' or 'citizens' may implicitly favor one group at another group's expense. Two further procedural issues involve measurement: First, how to estimate the demographic makeup of election districts formed from smaller units of geography (e.g., census tracts) and second, how to account for misreporting of citizenship by Mexican-born persons."
Correspondence: W. A. V. Clark, University of California, Department of Geography, Los Angeles, CA 90024-1524. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
David A.; Klein, Stephen P.; Sacks, Jerome; Smyth, Charles A.; Everett,
Charles G. Ecological regression and voting rights.
Evaluation Review, Vol. 15, No. 6, Dec 1991. 673-711 pp. Newbury Park,
California/London, England. In Eng.
"Ecological regression is a statistical mainstay in litigation brought under the Voting Rights Act of 1965. The technique is discussed in the context of a suit against the County of Los Angeles that came to trial in 1990. Ecological regression depends on very strong assumptions about political behavior. The authors identify these assumptions and show that they are not supported by the data. Also described is an alternative 'neighborhood model,' which is a priori more plausible and fits the facts better. The neighborhood model leads to quite different conclusions about voting behavior."
Correspondence: D. A. Freedman, University of California, Department of Statistics, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).
Bernard. Statistics without substance: a critique of
Freedman et al. and Clark and Morrison. Evaluation Review, Vol.
15, No. 6, Dec 1991. 746-69 pp. Newbury Park, California/London,
England. In Eng.
"This article critiques the views of Freedman et al. and Clark and Morrison on questions having to do with the applications of social science methodology in the law, including statistical techniques to measure racial bloc voting and techniques to estimate the Spanish-origin percentage of registered voters. It is argued that these authors misunderstand the case law in the voting rights area and have unrealistic standards of precision that, if adopted, would make it virtually impossible for minority plaintiffs to successfully prosecute a voting rights claim."
For the articles by David A. Freedman et al. and William A. V. Clark and Peter A. Morrison, also published in 1991, see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: B. Grofman, University of California, Political Science and Social Psychology Department, Irvine, CA 92717. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).
Diaz, Roberto E. The politics of family planning in
Mexico: recent experience. [La politica de planificacion familiar
en Mexico: una experiencia reciente.] ISBN 968-840-724-0. 1990. 124
pp. Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana-Xochimilco: Mexico City, Mexico.
The author discusses the impact of political influence on family planning programs in Mexico from 1982 to 1986, with some attention also paid to 1987. This period corresponds to the presidency of Miguel de la Madrid, who, for mainly socioeconomic reasons, initiated major governmental attempts to curb population growth. Support for and opposition to his antinatalist programs are discussed, as are their effects on the country's birthrate and economic growth.
Correspondence: Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Unidad Xochimilco, Calz. del Hueso 1100, Col. Villa Quietud, C. P. 04960, Mexico City DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Allan J. Passing the test: ecological regression analysis
in the Los Angeles County case and beyond. Evaluation Review, Vol.
15, No. 6, Dec 1991. 770-816 pp. Newbury Park, California/London,
England. In Eng.
The author argues that ecological regression analysis successfully estimates white and minority voting behavior in the United States, and criticizes the alternative neighborhood model that was developed for this purpose by expert defendants in Garza v. County of Los Angeles, a recent voting rights case. A rejoinder by David A. Freedman, Stephen P. Klein, Jerome Sacks, Charles A. Smyth, and Charles G. Everett is included (pp. 800-16).
Correspondence: A. J. Lichtman, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue NW, Washington, D.C. 20016. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).
William. The use of demographic data in voting rights
litigation. Evaluation Review, Vol. 15, No. 6, Dec 1991. 729-45
pp. Newbury Park, California/London, England. In Eng.
"The proliferation of voting rights litigation in the past 25 years, and particularly during the 1980s, has resulted in the need for analysis of demographic data to support claims made by both plaintiffs and defendants. Most of the demographic analyses in voting rights cases have focused on a series of questions regarding the appropriate population base to be used in forming single-member districts and the consequences of using various populations. Standards used by the courts have been vague, often contradictory, and rather elusive by social science standards. Several questions of a demographic nature remain unsettled. Some of the key questions in this domain are reviewed and their implications discussed using examples from the recent Los Angeles voting rights case when possible."
Correspondence: W. O'Hare, University of Louisville, Urban Research Institute, Louisville, KY 40292. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).
Daniel L. Statistical and demographic issues underlying
voting rights cases. Evaluation Review, Vol. 15, No. 6, Dec 1991.
659-72 pp. Newbury Park, California/London, England. In Eng.
"This article serves as an introduction to a symposium that was organized with the goal of explicating, discussing, and evaluating the validity of the most important statistical and demographic issues that have been raised in voting rights cases. The article outlines, discusses, and evaluates the issues surrounding a recent voting rights case in Los Angeles, Garza v. County of Los Angeles."
Correspondence: D. L. Rubinfeld, University of California, School of Law, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SW).
Roy M. Some aspects of sexual behaviour and the potential
demographic impact of AIDS in developing countries. Social Science
and Medicine, Vol. 34, No. 3, Feb 1992. 271-80 pp. Elmsford, New
York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This review examines recent research on the influence of heterogeneity in sexual behaviour on the transmission dynamics of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV), the aetiological agent of AIDS. Attention is focused on the potential demographic impact of AIDS in developing countries and how this is influenced by the structure of networks of sexual contacts (who mixes with whom), age-dependency in rates of sexual partner change and differences in the ages of female and male sexual partners....It is argued that much greater attention must be addressed to the quantification of patterns of sexual behaviour in defined communities, despite the many practical problems that surround data collection and interpretation."
Correspondence: R. M. Anderson, London University, Imperial College, Parasite Epidemiology Research Group, London SW7 2BB, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
Marc; Palloni, Alberto. The demographic modeling of the
HIV/AIDS epidemic. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3,
1992. 161-227 pp. Gordon and Breach Science Publishers: Reading,
England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
This special issue is a collection of four papers devoted to the demographic modeling of the HIV/AIDS epidemic. Topics covered include "the modeling of the spread of HIV via air travel, the sexual mixing of populations at risk, and the difficult statistical issues surrounding the estimation of the incubation period of AIDS, a crucial demographic variable for the dynamics of the epidemic."
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, P.O. Box 90, Reading, Berkshire RG1 8JL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Ralph. The AIDS pandemic: a global emergency. ISBN
2-88124-374-6. LC 89-12077. 1989. xi, 117 pp. Gordon and Breach: New
York, New York/Montreux, Switzerland. In Eng.
This is a collection of articles by different authors writing about the AIDS pandemic from an anthropological perspective. Chapters are included on metaphors of sex and deviance in the representation of disease; the social classification of AIDS in U.S. epidemiology; sexual behavior and the spread of AIDS in Mexico; surveys on the prevalence of HIV infection in central and eastern Africa; strategies for dealing with AIDS based on those used for hepatitis B; the role of a community-based health education program in the prevention of AIDS; preventing AIDS contagion among intravenous drug users; human rights and public health; the legal status of AIDS in the workplace in the United States; and the politics of AIDS at the microlevel, using the example of a gay rights ballot measure proposed in Houston, Texas, in 1985.
Correspondence: Gordon and Breach Science Publishers, P.O. Box 786, Cooper Station, New York, NY 10276. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Nicolas; Bonneuil, Noel. How reporting delay, duration of
follow-up and number of cases affect the estimates of the incubation
time of transfusion-associated AIDS cases. Mathematical Population
Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1992. 189-98, 227 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
with sum. in Fre.
The authors discuss the impact of reporting delay, duration of follow-up, and number of cases in a sample on estimates of the incubation time of transfusion-associated AIDS cases. "This article comes to the conclusion that the accuracy of the incubation time estimate would depend on the sample size rather than on the duration of follow-up."
Correspondence: N. Brouard, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
John; Hill, Allan G. The health transition: methods and
measures. The proceedings of an international workshop, London, June
1989. Health Transition Series, No. 3, ISBN 0-7315-1270-7. 1991.
viii, 438 pp. Australian National University, Health Transition Centre:
Canberra, Australia. Distributed by Bibliotech, ANUTECH Pty, GPO Box 4,
Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. In Eng.
This is a collection of 27 papers presented at a conference on the methods and models used in the study of the health transition. They are organized into sections covering outcome measures, including biomedical methods, data sources and methods, and the measurement of the geographic clustering of disability and disease; microlevel models and methods; aggregate and institutional models, including the evaluation of social policy effects on health; the contribution of specific disciplines, such as anthropology and epidemiology; and the lessons learned from multimethod approaches. The geographic focus of most of the papers is on developing countries.
Correspondence: Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Health Transition Centre, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Colette S. The determinants of maternal compliant health
behavior: implications for child health and family formation in
Senegal. Pub. Order No. DA9127312. 1991. 280 pp. University
Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Pennsylvania State University.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106-1346. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 52(4).
Mona A.-A. S. The link between disabilities and some
demographic and socio-economic indicators in Egypt: a case study.
In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC Annual Seminar, 1988.
1989. 285-318 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The effects of family size, birth spacing, birth order, and socioeconomic status on the likelihood of having a disabled child are examined using census and household survey data for Egypt.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Christopher. Sexually transmitted diseases and the
reproductive health of women in developing countries. Programs
Division Working Paper, No. 5, 1991. viii, 54 pp. Population Council,
Programs Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper is divided into three major sections, each intended to address a different aspect of the challenge reproductive health professionals face in confronting the issue of sexually transmitted disease among developing country women. The first section provides a general description of the principal issues concerning sexually transmitted disease pertinent to reproductive health programs. It is organized by syndrome, as opposed to specific causative organism....Section Two deals with the dual questions: 'where have we been?' and 'where do we go?' with STD/AIDS prevention efforts. This section explicates some of the critical issues that have led many people to conclude that, after the initial push to establish basic programs occasioned by the AIDS epidemic, prevention efforts are currently 'stalled' and in need of new directions. Section Three presents a synthesis of the main points of the first two sections in the form of an 'action agenda.'"
Correspondence: Population Council, Programs Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Antoine; Valleron, Alain-Jacques. A method for assessing
the global spread of HIV-1 infection based on air travel.
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 3, 1992. 161-71, 227 pp.
Reading, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The paper presents a methodology aimed at quantifying the impact of regular air traffic on the global spread of AIDS. A compartmental approach is used to represent the fluxes of infective passengers between 52 major cities. The impact of these fluxes on the pandemic is assessed by using a methodology which has been applied in the past for studying the dynamic of an influenza pandemic. In its present version, under simplified assumptions, the model reproduces qualitatively the three world patterns of HIV-1 infection in 1988. The methodology developed in this paper does not provide a detailed past history of the virus, and does not take into account the possibility of multifoci sporadic cases in the past. However it provides evidence that the significant start of the pandemic...was by the end of the 60's in Central Africa."
Correspondence: A. Flahault, Universite Paris 7, INSERM U263-SC4, 75251 Paris Cedex 05, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Perez, Guillermo; Hadad Hadad, Jorge; Valdes Llanes, Elias.
Demography and health in Cuba's rural areas. An analysis.
[Demografia y salud en zonas rurales de Cuba. Una approximacion.]
Revista Cubana de Salud Publica, Vol. 17, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1991. 98-111
pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Demographic and health indicators for the rural populations of eastern Cuba are studied to determine what impact new technology and improved medical care have had during the 1980s. Age and sex factors, fertility levels by age, and infant mortality rates are enumerated. "Results make evident the role of social development and particularly, [of] the changes in the organization of health services and...the favourable modification to sanitary indicators...."
Correspondence: G. Gonzalez Perez, Calle 23 esquina a N, 4to piso, Vedado, CP 10400 Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Bernice A.; Mascie-Taylor, C. G. N.; Boldsen, Jesper.
Birth order and health status in a British national sample.
Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 24, No. 1, Jan 1992. 25-33 pp.
Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"The present study uses a large British national cohort of children to examine the relationship between health status and birth order, and tests whether those with low birth orders are less prone to diseases than those with older siblings." The study is based on data from the British National Child Development Study, which covered all children born in England, Scotland, and Wales in March 1958 and conducted follow-ups in 1965, 1969, 1973, and 1981-1982. The analysis "corroborates the long held views that first born children tend to get more medical surveillance than those of later birth order, and that there is a direct relationship between achieved family size and social status."
Correspondence: B. A. Kaplan, Wayne State University, Detroit, MI 48202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Edward H. Asymptotic worst-case mixing in simple
demographic models of HIV/AIDS. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol.
108, No. 1, Feb 1992. 141-56 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses "modeling work regarding the impact of mixing patterns among subgroups on the spread of HIV infection....In this paper, immigration rates are modeled as simple functions of population size and may be interpreted as aggregate birth rates. This assumption implies asymptotic exponential growth in the disease-free population as long as per capita birth rates exceed per capita mortality rates. The introduction of HIV infection to such a population may change this situation, and the asymptotic population growth rate can be reduced substantially as a result. The specific manner in which this occurs depends in part upon difficult to observe mixing patterns among those with different sexual activity rates. Rather than attempting to explicitly model a variety of mixing patterns, a bound on the impact of worst-case mixing is produced....These new techniques are illustrated with a numerical example."
Correspondence: E. H. Kaplan, Yale School of Organization and Management, New Haven, CT 06520. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
58:10676 Le Blanc,
Marie-Nathalie; Meintel, Deirdre; Piche, Victor. The
African sexual system: comment on Caldwell et al. Population and
Development Review, Vol. 17, No. 3, Sep 1991. 497-515 pp. New York, New
York. In Eng.
"Our comments...focus on the social context of AIDS, as Caldwell et al. define it, namely the postulated existence of a distinctly African sexual system....We propose to show (1) that the authors' use of anthropological evidence is fraught with serious methodological flaws; and (2) that they have omitted many ethnographic sources that would undermine their argument. Our conclusion is that there is no systematic anthropological evidence for the existence of a distinct African sexual system."
A reply by Caldwell et al. is included (pp. 506-15).
For the original and revised versions of the article by John C. Caldwell et al., see 55:40624 and 56:20613.
Correspondence: M.-N. Le Blanc, University College, Department of Social Anthropology, Gower Street, London WC1E 6BT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Manos. Maternal mobility and infant mortality in Greece:
a regional analysis. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 34, No. 3,
Feb 1992. 317-23 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author analyzes the phenomenon of maternal mobility in Greece, whereby mothers travel long distances to give birth to their babies in maternity clinics. Specifically, infant mortality is used as a measure of whether mothers' expectations concerning the low quality of care in their areas of residence and the high level of care in the clinics they travel to are justified. The results show that infant mortality rates are higher than average in the better-equipped areas and lower in the areas women tend to leave in order to give birth. The author suggests that maternal mobility of this type may be a major cause of higher infant mortality.
Correspondence: M. Matsaganis, London School of Economics and Political Science, Welfare State Programme, Houghton Street, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
58:10678 Mosley, W.
Henry; Cowley, Peter. The challenge of world health.
Population Bulletin, Vol. 46, No. 4, Dec 1991. 39 pp. Population
Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors review problems in promoting better health on a global scale and describe various organized efforts to improve child survivorship rates and public health. Consideration is given to changes in life expectancy, fertility, and infant and child mortality and their relationship to socioeconomic factors and distribution among social classes. The demographic impacts of aging, morbidity, and disability are also explored. The authors conclude that "good health can be achieved at low cost...but it requires strong political and social commitment, especially to improve women's education and ensure equal access to health care." An extensive bibliography is included.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Commission on Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome (Washington,
D.C.). America: living with AIDS. Transforming anger,
fear, and indifference into action. ISBN 0-16-035859-0. 1991. v,
165 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is the report of the National Commission on AIDS, set up by the U.S. President and Congress, which provides recommendations for developing a national policy in response to the AIDS epidemic in the United States. It contains an overview of the current status of the epidemic and prospects for its future evolution. Chapters are also included on prevention and education, caring for people with the disease, health care financing, research, and government responsibilities.
Correspondence: National Commission on Acquired Immune Deficiency Syndrome, 1730 K Street NW, Suite 815, Washington, D.C. 20006. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Tuljapurkar, Shripad; John, A. Meredith. Disease
in changing populations: growth and disequilibrium. Theoretical
Population Biology, Vol. 40, No. 3, Dec 1991. 322-53 pp. Orlando,
Florida/Brugge, Belgium. In Eng.
The relevance of simple age-structured models to the study of childhood disease epidemiology is examined, with particular reference to the nonstationary populations which characterize developing countries. "An age-structured model of childhood disease epidemiology for nonstationary populations is formulated which incorporates explicit scaling assumptions with respect both to time and to population density. The static equilibrium properties and the dynamic local stability of the model are analyzed, as are the effects of random variability due to fluctuations in demographic structure. We determine the consequences of population growth rate for: the critical level of immunization needed to eradicate an endemic disease, the transient epidemic period, the return time which measures the stability of departures from epidemiological equilibrium, and the power spectrum of epidemiological fluctuations and combined demographic-epidemiological fluctuations. Growing populations are found to be significantly different from stationary ones in each of these characteristics. The policy implications of these findings are discussed."
Correspondence: S. Tuljapurkar, Stanford University, Department of Biological Sciences, Stanford, CA 94305. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
58:10681 Tyagi, B.
B.; Murthy, G. V. S.; Kapoor, S. K. Demographic
characteristics of deaths and life expectancy in rural hospital,
Ballabgarh (AIIMS) of Haryana State. Demography India, Vol. 18,
No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1989. 115-20 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The authors investigate the demographic aspects of deaths and life expectancy in a rural hospital in India. They evaluate the Comprehensive Rural Health Services Project of the AIIMS (All India Institute of Medical Sciences), applied to the Ballabgarh region of Haryana State, India. "The data were...used to construct a life table by the abridged method, using the mortality data of 1986....The life expectancy at birth for the males, females and combined was 66.2, 66.0 and 66.0 years respectively....It is clear that the population served by the [project]...has a better health profile than most populations in the country."
Correspondence: B. B. Tyagi, All India Institute of Medical Sciences, DCR-IRCH Project, Ansari Nagar, New Delhi 110 029, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Charlotte H.; May, Robert M. The influence of concurrent
partnerships on the dynamics of HIV/AIDS. Mathematical
Biosciences, Vol. 108, No. 1, Feb 1992. 89-104 pp. New York, New York.
"In this paper we use a simple model to describe the spread of HIV infection, taking into account the effect of concurrent relationships....We consider how the length of a relationship, as well as degree of sexual activity, affects the dynamics of the disease. We show that if an infectious individual is introduced into a group of susceptible individuals, and if there are sufficient numbers of overlapping partnerships, then initially the disease spreads rapidly through these networks of partners. This initial rate of propagation of infection is far greater than would be predicted if there were no concurrent partnerships....For simplicity, we model the spread of the disease through sexual contacts among a population of homosexuals, all of whom mix randomly and have the same degree of sexual activity...."
Correspondence: C. H. Watts, University of Oxford, Department of Zoology, Oxford 0X1 3PS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).
No citations in this issue.