Volume 57 - Number 4 - Winter 1991

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

57:40716 Arino, Ovide; Axelrod, David E.; Kimmel, Marek. Mathematical population dynamics: proceedings of the second international conference. Lecture Notes in Pure and Applied Mathematics, Vol. 131, ISBN 0-8247-8424-3. LC 91-8703. 1991. xv, 785 pp. Marcel Dekker: New York, New York/Basel, Switzerland. In Eng.
This volume consists of 49 papers by various authors and is a product of the Second International Conference on Mathematical Population Dynamics held May 17-20, 1989, at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, New Jersey. "This volume is intended for mathematicians, statisticians, biologists, and medical researchers who are interested in recent advances in analyzing changes in populations of genes, cells, and tumors; in the natural history of cancer; and in epidemiological topics such as AIDS....The chapters are grouped within the following topics: structured populations, ordinary and partial differential equations models, AIDS and [the] theory of epidemics, stochastic models, cell cycle kinetics, proliferation and tumor growth, and genetics and molecular biology."
Correspondence: Marcel Dekker, 270 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10016. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

57:40717 Blakemore, Michael; Dewdney, John. Census cartography. In: Information sources in cartography, edited by C. R. Perkins and R. B. Parry. ISBN 0-408-02458-5. LC 89-77929. 1989. 362-72 pp. Bowker-Saur: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
Some problems concerning the representation of census data in map form are discussed. The emphasis is on the techniques of census cartography. Particular attention is paid to mapping techniques used in the United Kingdom and the United States, concentrating on the use of computers to streamline the process.
Correspondence: C. R. Perkins, University of Manchester, John Rylands University Library, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SG).

57:40718 Cerrito, Patricia B. A nonparametric approach to analyzing large human populations. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 106, No. 1, Sep 1991. 23-37 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"There are many statistical techniques that require the assumption that the population being studied is normally distributed--regression analysis, multivariate analysis, time series analysis, and so on. Unfortunately, as the development of survey sampling has long acknowledged, large human populations are usually stratified into several different subpopulations. Since the boundaries between the strata are somewhat blurred, they are not independent, so the overall distribution of the population tends to be multimodal rather than normal. In this paper, a technique is developed to find these multimodal techniques using nonparametric density estimation." The effectiveness of the technique is illustrated using an example of 100 individuals studied to compare the safety and effectiveness of antidepressives.
Correspondence: P. B. Cerrito, University of Louisville, Department of Mathematics, Louisville, KY 40292. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

57:40719 Das Gupta, Prithwis. Decomposition of the difference between two rates and its consistency when more than two populations are involved. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991. 105-25 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"The objective of the present paper is to put together the general formulas that a researcher is expected to need for...two categories of decomposition problems for any number of factors. Applications of the use of the formulas under these two situations are illustrated by four examples. The paper also suggests a solution to the problem of possible internal inconsistencies of the factor effects when more than two populations are involved, and provides an illustrative example." The examples used concern U.S. data on childlessness by family income, labor force status of wife, and wife's age at marriage for blacks and whites in 1970; and life expectancy at birth for white males, 1940-1980.
Correspondence: P. Das Gupta, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40720 de Beer, Joop. From birth expectations to birth forecasts: a partial-adjustment approach. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991. 127-44 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"As women's expectations about their own future fertility tend to deviate systematically from realizations, these expectations cannot be used directly for forecasting purposes. This paper discusses a partial-adjustment approach for deriving forecasts from the expectations. The sensitivity of the results to various assumptions is examined. Empirical results obtained for the Netherlands seem promising."
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department of Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40721 Firebaugh, Glenn. Methods for estimating cohort replacement effects. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 19, 1989. 243-62 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author reexamines the hypothesis developed by Norman Ryder that the birth and death of individuals constitutes a massive process of personnel replacement that holds enormous potential for social change. "In this paper I describe and illustrate six possible ways to estimate cohort (personnel) replacement effects: three based on algebra (Kitagawa's two-component method, forward partitioning, and backward partitioning), and three based on regression (regression standardization, survey metric analysis, and linear decomposition). Assuming monotonic change, regression methods typically are better, because standard algebraic methods are ill suited for analyzing change with regard to birth cohorts that enter or exit during the period studied."
For the article by Ryder, published in 1965, see 32:1043.
Correspondence: G. Firebaugh, Pennsylvania State University, University Park, PA 16802. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40722 Gilbert, A. J.; Braat, L. C. Modelling for population and sustainable development. ISBN 0-415-06187-3. LC 90-9021. 1991. xvii, 261 pp. Routledge: New York, New York/London, England; International Social Science Council: Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors present and evaluate a computer modeling approach called ECCO, for Enhancement of Population Carrying Capacity Options. It was developed at the University of Edinburgh's Centre for Human Ecology to help guide policy toward a more sustainable development. It "comprises both the modelling approach to issues of population, resources, environment and development and the various computer models that have grown out of it....This book, which reports on the proceedings of an international workshop held at Soest in the Netherlands, presents a technical evaluation of ECCO, an analysis of the policy relevance of ECCO and assesses other approaches--with emphasis on ecology, economics, energy, agriculture and population--and examines the possibilities for their integration within ECCO."
Correspondence: Routledge, 11 New Fetter Lane, London EC4P 4EE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

57:40723 Guyot, Jean-Luc. Methods of analysis of fluctuations in the school-age population: a demographic approach. [Methodes d'analyse des flux des populations scolaires: approche demographique.] Institut de Demographie Working Paper, No. 157, ISBN 2-87209-142-4. 1991. 29 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
The author examines the various methods that have been developed to analyze fluctuations in school-age populations, and describes their advantages and drawbacks. The study concentrates on models of these changes that have been developed. The geographic scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place Montesquieu 1, Boite 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40724 Jiang, Zhenghua. The application and development of population mathematics and population systems engineering in China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 471-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This article briefly describes the application of such techniques as systems engineering and applied mathematics, to the development, problems, and trends of [China's] population studies. It also touches upon the contributions of Chinese scholars."
Correspondence: Z. Jiang, Xi'an Jiaotong University, Institute of Population Science, 26 Xianning Road, Xian 710049, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40725 Kotowska, Irena. Modeling labor resources using demoeconomic models of the BACHUE (DEMB) type in Poland. [Modelirane na trudovite resursi v demografsko-ikonomicheski model ot tipa BACHUE (DEMB) v Polsha.] Naselenie, Vol. 8, No. 1, 1990. 59-70 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author analyzes demographic and economic models developed by Poland's Institute of Statistics and Demography. "The economic submodel describes the Polish national economy as divided into 11 sectors and branches of the production sphere and 7 sectors of the non-production sphere. The demographic submodel covers 5 blocks of equations." The author notes an interdependence among the variables studied and relates this to socioeconomic and demographic development factors.
Correspondence: I. Kotowska, Polish Academy of Sciences, Central School of Statistics and Planning, Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40726 Levy, Paul S.; Lemeshow, Stanley. Sampling of populations: methods and applications. Wiley Series in Probability and Mathematical Statistics: Applied Probability and Statistics, 2nd ed. ISBN 0-471-50822-5. LC 90-13047. 1991. xxiii, 420 pp. John Wiley and Sons: New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
This is a revised edition of a book originally published in 1980 under the title "Sampling of populations: methods and applications", and is designed both for the working professional and as a textbook for students taking formal courses in sampling methodology. Survey design and estimation procedures are described. Other topics covered include nonresponse and missing data, constructing forms and collecting data, and interpretation of data and survey report writing. The geographic scope is worldwide, with some examples from the United States used as illustrations.
Correspondence: John Wiley and Sons, 605 Third Avenue, New York, NY 10158-0012. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40727 Pullum, Thomas W.; Wolf, Douglas A. Correlations between frequencies of kin. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 3, Aug 1991. 391-409 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Recent years have seen the development of formal and microsimulation models of the structure and dynamics of kin networks. These models generally assume uncorrelated fertility within and across generations. Several sets of real data, however, show positive correlations between the frequencies of various categories of kin. This paper uses formal models to calculate the correlations that will exist between certain categories of kin even if mothers and daughters have independent fertility. Mechanisms by which fertility might be transmitted from mothers to their daughters are considered and the implications for kin correlations are evaluated." The geographical scope is worldwide.
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1990 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 56, No. 3, Fall 1990, p. 415).
Correspondence: T. W. Pullum, University of Texas, Population Research Center, Austin, TX 78712. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40728 Puu, T. Hotelling's migration model revisited. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 23, No. 8, Aug 1991. 1,209-16 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In the present article Hotelling's model of population growth and migration of 1921 is 'revisited'. After a discussion of the stationary solutions and their stability the main point is made. The model itself is structurally unstable, but can be easily stabilized by adding a simple autonomous migration component. By this, the solution curves, in the shape of constant amplitude population waves over space for the original model, either become damped in one direction and explosive in another or are replaced by just one single spatial limit cycle."
Correspondence: T. Puu, University of Umea, Department of Economics, S-90187 Umea, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

57:40729 Rodgers, Willard L. Interpreting the components of time trends. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 20, 1990. 421-46 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Procedures for decomposing differences between two populations--for example, into the part that is due to differences in age-specific rates and the part that is due to differences in age distributions--have been used to decompose time trends into the part that is due to changes occurring within cohorts and the part that is due to the gradual replacement of older by younger cohorts. It is not clear what is accomplished by such a decomposition of a trend, however. Decomposition does not tell us what types of variables may be the root causes of a trend, and there is a real danger that such a decomposition will confuse rather than clarify." The concepts are illustrated using U.S. data on racial prejudice and marijuana use. A response by Glenn Firebaugh defending decomposition methods is included (pp. 439-46).
Correspondence: W. L. Rodgers, University of Michigan, Institute for Social Research, Survey Research Center, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40730 Schoen, Robert; Kim, Young J. Movement toward stability as a fundamental principle of population dynamics. Demography, Vol. 28, No. 3, Aug 1991. 455-66 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper we start from the premise that substantial and meaningful regularities characterize the behavior of all populations, and we reinterpret a measure known...as the Kullback distance to extend the present understanding of those regularities. Two elements [underlie] that reinterpretation. First, Equation (6) generalizes the concept of population momentum by defining the momentum of any age group in any observed population in terms of its stable equivalent. Second, demographic behavior is summarized by the reproductive value function because reproductive values embed a population's rates of fertility and mortality....There a Kullback distance, which must decrease monotonically as a population moves toward stability, is shown to be a weighted average of a population's log momentum, where the weights relate to the pattern of reproductive values." The geographical scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Johns Hopkins University, Department of Population Dynamics, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40731 Trost, Jan. What's in a surname? Familjerapporter, No. 19, 1991. 20 pp. Uppsala Universitet: Uppsala, Sweden. In Eng.
The results of two surveys conducted in 1975 and 1989 in Sweden concerning the use of different surnames within the same family unit are reported. A historical background to the evolution of family names is included.
Correspondence: Uppsala University, Department of Sociology, P.O. Box 513, S-751 20 Uppsala, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40732 Wachter, Kenneth W. Pre-procreative ages in population stability and cyclicity. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1991. 79-103 pp. Reading, England. In Eng.
"Humans' protracted maturation before childbearing is an extreme example of a general characteristic of higher organisms: a positive lower bound on ages of procreation. The pre-procreative span, much discussed for its evolutionary and social ramifications, has consequences also for the mathematics of population renewal....This paper proves the presence of a pre-procreative span sufficient, in and of itself, to guarantee the existence condition for bifurcation for all models in one important class. The class includes the best-studied examples of age-specific systems with and without homeostatic feedback in purely discrete and in purely continuous formulations."
Correspondence: K. W. Wachter, University of California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40733 Walter, S. D.; Birnie, S. E. Mapping mortality and morbidity patterns: an international comparison. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 20, No. 3, Sep 1991. 678-89 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"A set of 49 national, intranational and international health atlases was surveyed to characterize their mapping methodology with respect to the populations covered, the diseases represented, the mapping techniques, and statistical methods. Little consistency was found concerning the choice of data function to be mapped, minimum event frequency requirements, method of age standardization, or map colour systems. Many atlases did not include basic epidemiological information; for instance, approximately half the atlases did not quote population denominators....[The authors] conclude that inter-atlas comparisons are made very difficult by methodological differences, and that even regional comparisons within atlases should be made cautiously. We propose a set of methodological guidelines for consideration in future atlases."
Correspondence: S. D. Walter, McMaster University, Health Sciences Centre, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Hamilton, Ontario L8N 3Z5, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40734 Wilmoth, John R. Variation in vital rates by age, period, and cohort. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 20, 1990. 295-335 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The analysis of age-specific vital rates is studied, and special attention is given to the problem of decomposing an array of rates into factors related to age, period, and cohort....The paper focuses on the age and period dimensions and derives an initial description of the matrix's structure with regard to changes only in those two directions. This two-dimensional description is then augmented by a consideration of residual patterns that seem clearly linked to cohorts. The use of a model that is asymmetric in age, period, and cohort is justified by a detailed discussion of the problems of identification in models involving perfectly collinear independent variables. An important conclusion is that traditional modeling approaches that treat age, period, and cohort in a symmetric fashion are fundamentally flawed." Some of these concepts are illustrated using mortality data from France.
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, Fall 1989, pp. 375-6).
Correspondence: J. R. Wilmoth, University of California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40735 Wu, Lawrence L. Issues in smoothing empirical hazard rates. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 19, 1989. 127-59 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This chapter presents a smooth estimator of the hazard rate using a variable-span running loglinear specification that allows investigators to maintain only mild assumptions about the functional forms of population heterogeneity and time inhomogeneity in the rate. This estimator is useful both in exploratory data analyses (EDA) and in checking parametric assumptions. Examples drawn from data on the transition to first marriage for women in the U.S. show that several common parametric assumptions are violated in these data and illustrate that the smoothed hazard estimator can yield important insights not easily obtained from more conventional methods."
Correspondence: L. L. Wu, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

57:40736 Wu, Lawrence L.; Tuma, Nancy B. Local hazard models. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 20, 1990. 141-80 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"We introduce a class of local hazard models that maintain parametric assumptions locally rather than globally. These models allow estimation of a flexible baseline hazard rate and nonproportional covariate effects. Recently developed local likelihood methods, which generalize maximum likelihood methods, can be used to estimate these models. We illustrate these techniques by estimating two local hazard models of first marriage--a local exponential model and a local Gompertz model--from data in the June 1980 [U.S.] Current Population Survey. We also compare results of the local hazard models with those of Cox's model, an exponential model, a piecewise exponential model, and a piecewise Gompertz model. Estimates for the local exponential and local Gompertz models agree closely with nonparametric estimates for various subgroups. Moreover, results of the local models provide interesting substantive insights into the process of first marriage that are not easily obtained from global models."
Correspondence: L. L. Wu, University of Wisconsin, Department of Sociology, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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