Volume 56 - Number 4 - Winter 1990

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

56:40717 Bhattacharya, B. N.; Singh, K. K.; Singh, Uttam; Pandey, C. M. An extension of a model for first birth interval and some social factors. Sankhya: Indian Journal of Statistics, Series B, Vol. 51, No. 1, Apr 1989. 115-24 pp. Calcutta, India. In Eng.
"A model for the time of first birth is presented under certain assumptions, which involve biological and socio-cultural factors." The model is illustrated using data from Rural Development and Population Growth--A Sample Survey, 1978, conducted in Varanasi, India, and involving some 3,514 households.
Correspondence: B. N. Bhattacharya, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 Barrackpore Trunk Road, Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40718 Caselli, Graziella; Lombardo, Enzo. Graphics and demographic analysis: some aspects of their history and the present situation. [Graphiques et analyse demographique: quelques elements d'histoire et d'actualite.] Population, Vol. 45, No. 2, Mar-Apr 1990. 399-414 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The authors review how demographers have used graphs and figures to illustrate demographic concepts from the seventeenth century to the present. "During the first half of the nineteenth century, J. B. Fourier and A. Quetelet used graphic methods efficiently, to help in an understanding and synthesis of demographic phenomena. Between 1860 and 1880, a number of authors (Berg, Knapp, Zeuner, Becker, Lexis and Lewin) tried to solve the problem of plotting demographic data in three dimensions by age, period and cohort. Their efforts resulted on one hand in the famous Lexis diagram, and on the other in stereograms, of which those by Perozzo were warmly received, and which are briefly described here. Finally, the authors present the recent method of contour maps as a representation of demographic surfaces, which make it possible for the reader to look at age, period and cohort simultaneously."
Correspondence: G. Caselli, Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografiche, Via Nomentana 41, Rome 00161, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40719 Chu, C. Y. Cyrus. An existence theorem on the stationary state of income distribution and population growth. International Economic Review, Vol. 31, No. 1, Feb 1990. 171-85 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"Through a utility-maximizing process, individuals derive their optimal fertility and bequest decisions both as functions of their initial socioeconomic backgrounds. The combination of these two decisions form a multi-type Galton-Watson process. Under weak assumptions, it is proved that the economy will converge to a unique stationary state which implies both a constant population growth rate and a time-invariant income distribution. As such, this paper extends the Becker-Willis static micro-level fertility demand model to a dynamic macro-level population growth model. Alternatively, our model can be viewed as a generalization of Laitner's stochastic income theory where no differential fertility is allowed."
Correspondence: C. Y. C. Chu, National Taiwan University, Department of Economics, 1 Roosevelt Road IV, Taipei, Taiwan. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:40720 Copas, J. B.; Hilton, F. J. Record linkage: statistical models for matching computer records. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 153, No. 3, 1990. 287-320 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"We wish to measure the evidence that a pair of records relates to the same, rather than different, individuals. The paper emphasizes statistical models which can be fitted to a file of record pairs known to be correctly matched, and then used to estimate likelihood ratios. A number of models are developed and applied to U.K. immigration statistics. The combination of likelihood ratios for possibly correlated record fields is discussed." A series of comments on the paper is also included, as well as a reply to those comments by the author (pp. 312-20).
Correspondence: J. B. Copas, University of Birmingham, School of Mathematics and Statistics, POB 363, Birmingham B15 2TT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:40721 Dionne, Claude. Three questions concerning methods of calculating life expectancy. [Trois questions sur le mode de calcul de l'esperance de vie.] In: Populations agees et revolution grise: les hommes et les societes face a leurs vieillissements, edited by Michel Loriaux, Dominique Remy, and Eric Vilquin. [1990]. 219-31 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Editions CIACO: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
Problems concerning the use of life tables to study the mortality of the oldest among a population are examined. A new approach to the study of mortality at advanced ages is proposed, which the author describes as the method of origin-destination.
Correspondence: C. Dionne, Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec, 117 rue Saint-Andre, Quebec G1K 3Y3, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40722 Feichtinger, Gustav; Dockner, Engelbert J. Capital accumulation, endogenous population growth, and Easterlin cycles. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1990. 73-87 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"In this paper we attempt to explain the occurrence of population cycles in industrialised economies where the birth rate depends on the difference between the actual and the expected consumption rate. This model of an endogenously growing population brings together Easterlin's idea of an adapting aspiration level with the neoclassical optimal growth paradigm. It is shown that in this highly aggregated demo-economic system (i.e., without inclusion of the age structure of a population) swings both in the economic and demographic variables may exist. The reason behind this 'strange' optimal behaviour is identified to be an intertemporal substitution effect between current and future levels of consumption."
Correspondence: G. Feichtinger, Technical University of Vienna, Institute for Econometrics, OR and Systems Theory, Argentinierstrasse 8, A-1040 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40723 Hartmann, David J. Longitudinal analysis with census tract data. In: Essays in human ecology, No. 3, edited by Donald J. Bogue and David J. Hartmann. 1990. 68-78 pp. Garcia-Bogue Research and Development: Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The author presents an argument for the use of longitudinal analysis of census tract data for predicting urban change and its causes. He describes the application of such an approach to both policy evaluation and housing policy. The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: D. J. Hartmann, Southwest Missouri State University, 901 South National, Springfield, MO 65804. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40724 Hoem, Jan M. Limitations of a heterogeneity technique: selectivity issues in conjugal union disruption at parity zero in contemporary Sweden. In: Convergent issues in genetics and demography, edited by Julian Adams, David A. Lam, Albert I. Hermalin, and Peter E. Smouse. 1990. 133-53 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"It is the purpose of this chapter to contribute to an assessment of [unobserved heterogeneity techniques] by reporting on an attempt to gain improved insight by incorporating persistent unobserved heterogeneity explicitly into a model for a behavior where it is manifestly present and is easily detected by simpler procedures....[The experiment fails, but] it is published as a warning against undue optimism concerning the usefulness of current heterogeneity techniques. Since unobserved heterogeneity is likely to be present in situations studied in genetics as well as in demography (and in many other fields), there is a message here for geneticist and demographer alike." The method is applied to data from a 1981 Swedish fertility survey concerning dissolution of marital unions.
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Section, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40725 Lam, David; Smouse, Peter E. Heterogeneous frailty analysis in demography and genetics. In: Convergent issues in genetics and demography, edited by Julian Adams, David A. Lam, Albert I. Hermalin, and Peter E. Smouse. 1990. 97-109 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors present an overview of methods of analyzing heterogeneity in the fields of demography and population genetics. They pay particular attention to heterogeneous frailty modeling.
Correspondence: D. Lam, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48104-2590. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40726 Larner, Wendy. Feminist methodologies and population research. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, May 1990. 26-38 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
"In this paper I will discuss how the insights of feminist social scientists can be of revelance to methodological discussions in population research, drawing on research conducted during 1989 which looked at the labour force participation of Samoan women in New Zealand."
Correspondence: W. Larner, University of Waikato, Geography Department, Hamilton, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40727 Rogers, Andrei. The multistate stable population model with immigration. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 4, 1990. 313-24, 325 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper outlines the discrete-time and continuous-time formulations of the stable population model with immigration, showing their commonality. It then illustrates how the model can be extended to include multiple interacting populations, and goes on to consider a multistate version of reproductive value that further illuminates the evolutionary dynamics of an 'open' model of multistate population growth and redistribution. Attention is restricted to results arising from a fertility regime that is below replacement level." Data are from the 1980 U.S. census.
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of Colorado, Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40728 Sawyer, Diana O.; Castilla, Francisco M. Data, methods, and indirect techniques of estimating mortality. [Dados, medidas e tecnicas indiretas de estimacao de mortalidade.] Revista Brasileira de Estudos de Populacao, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jul-Dec 1989. 39-61 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
The author compares alternative methods for estimating infant and adult mortality using data from various Brazilian sources. Methods of estimating child mortality considered include those of Brass, Feeney, and Preston and Palloni. The focus is on the selection of the most appropriate method for estimating mortality in Brazil. The importance of information on deaths in the previous year for the accurate estimation of current mortality is stressed.
Correspondence: D. O. Sawyer, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Centro de Desenvolvimento e Plenajemanento Regional, Departamento de Ciencias Economicas, Rua Curitiba 832, Belo Horizonte MG, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40729 Schuur, Jan. The micro model in spatial planning. [Het micro model in de ruimtelijke planning.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Aug 1990. 39-54 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"What is a micro model? What does it add to existing tools in demography? These and related questions are considered both from a methodological and from an empirical point of view. The role of rational choice theory in micro modelling is reviewed. The current discussion on population and planning models in the Netherlands is used as an illustration of the argument. Particular attention is given to the migration decision-making process."
Correspondence: J. Schuur, Postbus 90618, 2509 LP The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40730 Trussell, James; Rodriguez, German. Heterogeneity in demographic research. In: Convergent issues in genetics and demography, edited by Julian Adams, David A. Lam, Albert I. Hermalin, and Peter E. Smouse. 1990. 111-32 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter, we have examined the incorporation of covariates in three statistical models appropriate for the analysis of demographic data....We also address, for each of the models, the value of incorporating an extra source of variation by adding an unobservable. Unobservables have been extensively explored in the context of hazard regressions used for event history analysis. We review this prior work and explore critically its implications. We conclude that the methods proposed to correct for unobservable heterogeneity deliver less than is commonly assumed, particularly because of an inherent non-identifiability involved when the analyst must rely on observables to assess goodness-of-fit."
Correspondence: J. Trussell, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40731 Valkovics, Emil. Contradictions between different degrees of aging. [Contradictions entre differents degres de vieillissement.] In: Populations agees et revolution grise: les hommes et les societes face a leurs vieillissements, edited by Michel Loriaux, Dominique Remy, and Eric Vilquin. [1990]. 233-59 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Editions CIACO: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
Comparisons are made among various stable populations with regard to different criteria for defining optimal population in the context of demographic aging. Various stable populations of the Coale-Demeney East model with the same mortality levels but varying rates of natural increase are compared using different economic and noneconomic criteria of optimization. Methods of calculating the net reproduction rate that would result in the minimum demographic change are presented.
Correspondence: E. Valkovics, Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Institut de Recherches Demographiques, Keleti Karoly U. 57, 1525 Budapest II, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:40732 Verbon, Harrie A. A. Transfers to the old, government debt and demographic change. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 3, No. 2, 1990. 89-104 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"In this paper we take the view that policy makers...take the relationship between (explicit) intergenerational transfer systems (including public pension schemes) and government deficits into account. It is assumed that policy makers are behaving altruistically towards past and future generations. Given the behavioral model, an analysis is made of the effects of demographic changes (such as the 'baby-boom' of the 1940s and 1950s and the decline of birth rates in the 1970s) on the decisions to be taken with respect to the tax rate of the public pension system and the size of government debt. From the analysis it appears that, with the assumption of altruistic decision-makers, periods of increasing or decreasing debt can occur alternately in periods of demographic change." The geographical focus is on developed countries.
Correspondence: H. A. A. Verbon, University of Tilburg, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 90153, 5000 LE Tilburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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