Bhattacharya, Durgaprasad. Trends of population in
the Indian sub-continent: c. 2001 B.C. - 2001 A.D. In: Population
transition in India, Volume 2, edited by S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P.
S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 347-55 pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi,
India. In Eng.
Past trends and estimates of population growth and future projections for India, Pakistan, and Bangladesh are presented for the period 2001 B.C.-2001 A.D.
Correspondence: D. Bhattacharya, Socio-Economic Research Institute, Calcutta, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Jean-Claude. The French population in the nineteenth and
twentieth centuries. [La population francaise aux XIXe et XXe
siecles.] Synthese et Histoire, 1989. 144 pp. Ophrys: Gap, France. In
This is a general review of population trends in France over the course of the nineteenth and twentieth centuries. The first part includes chapters on population growth, migration, mortality, fertility, the postwar baby boom, and immigration. The second part presents selected data on fertility and family planning and on migration.
Correspondence: Ophrys, 6 avenue Jean-Jaures, BP87, 05002 Gap Cedex, France. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.
Kalev. Demographic development in Estonia through
centuries. Rahvastiku-Uuringud/Population Studies, No. 9, 1989.
25,  pp. Estonian Interuniversitary Population Research Centre:
Tallinn, USSR. In Eng.
The author presents an overview of the demographic development of Estonia from the thirteenth century to the present. The focus is on fertility change leading to demographic transition and the impact of migration on fertility levels.
Correspondence: Estonian Interuniversitary Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 3012, 200090 Tallinn, Estonia, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Parviz. The development of world population: retrospect
and prospects. [Die Entwicklung der Weltbevolkerung: Ruckblick
und Vorschau.] In: Probleme und Chancen demographischer Entwicklung in
der dritten Welt, edited by Gunter Steinmann, Klaus F. Zimmermann, and
Gerhard Heilig. 1988. 2-18 pp. Springer-Verlag: New York, New
York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Long-term historical trends in world population are examined using a model of the interrelationships among population growth, economic production, and living standards. Prospects for the future are then discussed.
Correspondence: P. Khalatbari, Humboldt-Universitat zu Berlin, Sektion Witrschaftswissenschaften, 1020 Berlin, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Gosudarstvennyi Komitet SSSR po Statistike (Moscow, USSR).
From the archives of the State Committee on Statistics: results of
the 1937 all-Union population census. [Iz arkhivov Goskomstata
SSSR: itogi vsesoyuznoi perepisi naseleniya 1937 g.] Vestnik
Statistiki, No. 7, 1990. 65-79 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
Statistical data from the 1937 census of the USSR are presented. Topics covered include total population by sex for individual republics, autonomous republics, areas, krai, and oblasts; population of cities with more than 50,000 inhabitants; population by age and sex; and nationalities.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Sistema Estadual de Analise de Dados [SEADE] (Sao Paulo,
Brazil). Sao Paulo in numbers: demographic
projections. [Sao Paulo en numeros: projecoes demograficas.] Aug
1988. xi, 396; xi, 357 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por.
This two-volume work presents population estimates for the Brazilian state of Sao Paulo up to the year 1990. The estimates are presented by region and district for each year from 1985 to 1990 by sex and five-year age group.
Correspondence: Fundacao Sistema Estadual de Analise de Dados, Av. Casper Libero 464, 01033 Sao Paulo, SP, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library.
Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as
of October 1, 1989. Population Estimates Series, No. 62, 1990. 81
pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates are provided for Japan by age, sex, and prefecture for natives and foreigners. Selected vital statistics and migration data are included.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Felicia; Dahmann, Donald. Residents of farms and rural
areas: 1989. Current Population Reports, Series P-20: Population
Characteristics, No. 446, Oct 1990. iv, 46 pp. U.S. Department of
Agriculture: Washington, D.C.; U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington,
D.C. In Eng.
An estimate of the population of farms and rural areas in the United States in 1989 is presented. Retrospective data back to 1970 are included.
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Kingdom. Scotland. Registrar General (Edinburgh, Scotland).
Population estimates: Scotland, 1989. ISBN 0-11-494131-9.
1990. 16 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
"This booklet contains estimates of the population of Scotland by age, sex and area as at 30 June 1989. Some relevant historical data are also presented. A table on population density, based on land areas supplied by the Ordnance Survey, has been included on this occasion for general interest."
Correspondence: General Register Office for Scotland, Population Statistics Branch, Ladywell House, Ladywell Road, Edinburgh EH12 7TF, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Francis; Trueblood, Michael. World population by country
and region, 1950-2050. Agriculture and Trade Analysis Division
Staff Report, No. AGES 9024, Apr 1990. ix, 65 pp. U.S. Department of
Agriculture, Economic Research Service, Agriculture and Trade Analysis
Division: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains estimates of world population from 1950 to the late 1980's depending on the latest country census, and projections to 2050. It also shows annual rates of population growth for each country and region....The information is provided for 204 countries, grouped into 14 geographic regions. It is a part of the Bureau of the Census population data bank used in the Economic Research Service (ERS)."
This publication updates the information provided by the same authors in a 1988 publication, cited in 56:30068.
Correspondence: ERS-NASS, P.O. Box 1608, Rockville, MD 20849-1608. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Dennis A.; Vaupel, James W. Alternative projections of the
U.S. population. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 4, Nov 1990. 639-52 pp.
Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this article we explore the impact on the size and age composition of the U.S. population of alternative scenarios of plausible fertility, mortality, and immigration assumptions. We conclude that (1) the Census Bureau's highest projection might be interpreted as a reasonable middle projection, (2) a reasonable high projection would yield a U.S. population in 2080 some 300 million persons larger than the Bureau's highest projection, with the population 85 and older more than twice the Bureau's greatest estimate, and (3) uncertainty about the pace of population growth is substantially greater than the Bureau's projections suggest."
Correspondence: D. A. Ahlburg, University of Minnesota, Industrial Relations Center and Center for Population Analysis and Policy, Minneapolis, MN 55455. enter. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Neil G.; Bloom, David E. Plotting our destiny:
interpreting our demographic trajectory. Journal of the American
Planning Association, Vol. 56, No. 2, Spring 1990. 135-9 pp. Chicago,
Illinois. In Eng.
The possibilities and limits of current techniques to forecast future population trends are discussed, with particular reference to the United States.
Correspondence: N. G. Bennett, Yale University, Department of Sociology, P.O. Box 1965, New Haven, CT 06520-1965. Location: Princeton University Library (SF).
Society for Population Studies (London, England).
Population projections: trends, methods and uses. University of
Liverpool, 12-14 September 1990: conference papers. OPCS
Occasional Paper, No. 38, ISBN 0-904952-61-4. 1990. v, 114 pp. Office
of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
This volume contains papers presented at the September 1990 meeting of the British Society for Population Studies, held in Liverpool, England. Papers by various authors focus on the methods and users of population projections. The geographical focus is on the United Kingdom and other developed countries.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Rodolfo A.; Bos, Eduard; Stephens, Patience W.; Vu, My T.
World population projections, 1989-90 edition: short- and
long-term estimates. ISBN 0-8018-4094-5. LC 86-659555. 1990.
lxxiii, 421 pp. Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland;
World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This expanded edition of the World Bank's population projections contains an assessment of demographic prospects up to the year 2150. "Demographic profiles are drawn for 187 countries from data available as of mid-1989. These profiles show total population by age and sex; birth, death, and growth rates; migration, reproduction, and fertility rates; and infant mortality and life expectancy. Included this year as a new indicator is the age dependency ratio. This compares the population under 15 and over 64 years of age to the working age population. In addition to the country profiles, summary tables are included to highlight trends in mortality, fertility, and migration worldwide and by region and income group. Technical notes describe in detail the methodology used to make the projections."
Correspondence: World Bank, Publications Department, J2152, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Daniel; Corner, Ian. Sub-national population and household
projections by central government. In: Population projections:
trends, methods and uses, by the British Society for Population
Studies. 1990. 55-63 pp. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys
[OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"Population projections for local authority areas by [the United Kingdom] central government are made by the component method, on the basis of separate assumptions on births, deaths, and internal and external migration. The results are constrained to be consistent with the Government Actuary's national projections....An important application of these population projections is in developing the DOE [Department of the Environment] household projections. These are based on the headship rate method which, in essence, estimates the proportion of the population heading households. Current developments are designed to introduce a cohort based approach to headship rate projection and, eventually, to provide a clearer indication of the separate effects of the components of headship rate change."
Correspondence: D. Capron, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40091 Costa Rica.
Ministerio de Planificacion Nacional y Politica Economica (San Jose,
Costa Rica); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia
[CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica); Costa Rica. Direccion General de
Estadistica y Censos (San Jose, Costa Rica). Costa Rica:
projection of the economically active population by sex and age.
1985-2000. Perspectives concerning the labor supply and their
implications. [Costa Rica: proyeccion de la poblacion
economicamente activa por sexo y edad. 1985-2000. Perspectivas sobre
la oferta laboral y sus implicaciones.] Fasciculo F./C.R., No. 3, ISBN
9977-58-112-6. LC 89-162712. Jul 1988. 67 pp. Imprenta Nacional: San
Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Labor force projections for Costa Rica are presented by age and sex up to the year 2000. The first part uses census data to present estimates for the period 1950-1985. The next section contains the projections. A final section describes the methodology used in the projections.
Correspondence: Imprenta Nacional, Apdo. 5024, La Vruca, San Jose, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40092 de Beer,
J. Accuracy of forecasts of annual numbers based on
monthly numbers. [Betrouwbaarheid van voorspellingen van
jaarcijfers op grond van maandcijfers.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 38, No. 7, Jul 1990. 11-9 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In
Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"Since 1985 monthly forecasts have been made of yearly numbers of births, deaths, immigration, emigration and marriages [in the Netherlands] on the basis of monthly figures. The forecasts are equal to the arithmetic average of an ARIMA projection and a naive forecast....This article compares the forecasts for the years 1985-1989 with forecasts obtained from a simple alternative method."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40093 Field, John
L. Past projections: how successful? In: Population
projections: trends, methods and uses, by the British Society for
Population Studies. 1990. 23-9 pp. Office of Population Censuses and
Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"In Britain, which in recent years has had a population almost constant at around 55 million, interest in [population] projections has centered on the numbers in particular age groups, and it is with these age-group numbers that the analysis in this paper is concerned. Following the analysis some comments are made about suitable projection assumptions for the United Kingdom at the present time, especially for projections on alternative assumptions (known as 'variant' projections)."
Correspondence: J. L. Field, Government Actuary's Department, 22 Kingsway, London WC2B 6LE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Madugba I. Projecting Igbo population to the year 2000 and
beyond. Genus, Vol. 45, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1989. 153-64 pp. Rome,
Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"This study addresses the issues and the consequences of the growth of [the] Igbo population [of Nigeria] from the pre-colonial period to the year 2000 and beyond; it reveals that though the political crises of the Nigerian Civil War have reduced the tempo of the growth of the population, the high fertility rate observed in Igbo society will over time lead to a rapid recovery in the growth of the population."
Correspondence: M. I. Iro, Imo State University, PMB 2000, Okigwe, Imo State, Nigeria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Heather; Diamond, Ian. Demographic projections: who needs
to know? In: Population projections: trends, methods and uses, by
the British Society for Population Studies. 1990. 1-21 pp. Office of
Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"The uses to which demographic projections are put was the subject of parallel postal surveys in the United Kingdom and Australia. Around half the organisations approached sent in replies, from private and non-profit sectors as well as public. The survey reveals widespread and growing interest in demographic prospects, particularly strong in the Health Service and Local Government. Only a minority of users looked very far into the next century. While customers are on the whole satisfied with official projections, the need for better local projections was a recurrent theme in both countries. Information on internal migration, and variant assumptions about its course were in strong demand, as were better and more up-to-date baseline data on the present."
Correspondence: H. Joshi, Birkbeck College, Malet Street, London WC1E 7HX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Nico. National population projections in industrialized
countries: a review of methodology and assumptions. In:
Population projections: trends, methods and uses, by the British
Society for Population Studies. 1990. 31-41 pp. Office of Population
Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper I review national population projections produced by statistical agencies in 30 industrialized countries at the end of the 1980s. The international comparison includes the characteristics and the components of change which were used to describe the static and dynamic aspects of the populations involved, the models which were employed, extrapolation procedures for fertility, mortality and international migration, the assumptions for the future levels of these three components, and the use of projection variants. Two general conclusions stand out. Firstly, there is a relatively large variety among the 30 countries of future fertility levels....Secondly, most of the methodology for the extrapolation of fertility and mortality has not (yet?) made its way into demographic forecasting carried out by national statistical agencies."
Correspondence: N. Keilman, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, P.O. Box 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Nathan. Measuring in advance the accuracy of population
forecasts. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-89-72, Dec 1989. iv, 31,
 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]:
Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"Supposing only that future variability in fertility, mortality improvement, and migration will be the same as past variability, and that it is the variability that creates the uncertainty in population forecasts, permits an ex ante estimate of uncertainty. This is calculated by taking the fertility level of a random past year, the mortality improvement of a random past five-year period, and the net immigration of a random past year. The future population that is shown by 1,000 such random choices of each of the three input variables for each projection cycle gives the variability to which individual estimates are subject....[The author compares] a large number of medium projections made by the United Nations and other bodies with what subsequently occurred. It turned out that this ex post estimate was slightly higher than the ex ante as shown by the simulation." The geographical focus is on Canada.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Shigemi. The new phases of world population trends.
Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 46, No. 2, Jul
1990. 1-16 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes U.N. population projections, with a focus on a recent paper by Leon Tabah projecting world population growth rates. Consideration is given to the concepts of demographic transition, replacement level, and stationary population.
Correspondence: S. Kono, Ministry of Health and Welfare, Institute of Population Problems, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Tomas. National and regional demographic perspectives in
Czechoslovakia: methods and the question of reliability. [Les
perspectives demographiques nationales et regionales en
Tchecoslovaquie--les methodes et la question de confiance.] Acta
Universitatis Carolinae: Geographica, Vol. 23, No. 1, 1988. 57-71 pp.
Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Fre. with sum. in Cze.
The author examines the methods used to prepare official population projections in Czechoslovakia, how they have been modified over time, and their reliability.
Correspondence: T. Kucera, Univerzita Karlova, Department of Economic and Regional Geography, Ovocny trh 5, 116 36 Prague 1, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
56:40100 Latten, J.
J. The impact of social changes on household positions of
never-married persons. Simulations for the year 2010. [De invloed
van maatschappelijke veranderingen op huishoudensposities van nooit
gehuwden. Simulaties voor het jaar 2010.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 38, No. 10, Oct 1990. 25-30 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
An attempt is made to forecast future trends in the number of households formed by never-married people in the Netherlands up to 2010. Five alternative hypotheses of how such trends might develop are considered based on different assumptions concerning social development.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40101 Malaker, C.
R. Population projections by marital status:
1981-2001. In: Population transition in India, Volume 2, edited by
S. N. Singh, M. K. Premi, P. S. Bhatia, and Ashish Bose. 1989. 95-103
pp. B. R. Publishing: Delhi, India. In Eng.
"An attempt has...been made in this paper to project the population of India by age and marital status for the period 1981-2001. As population growth vis-a-vis fertility is related primarily to the distribution of female population by marital status in the reproductive age group, we have restricted ourselves to females in the age group 10-15 for our projections."
Correspondence: C. R. Malaker, Indian Statistical Institute, 203 Barrackpore Trunk Road, Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Michele; Raulot, Jean-Yves. Regional disparities and the
demographic perspective in France: the Prudent model. [Les
disparites regionales et les perspectives demographiques en France: le
modele Prudent.] Acta Universitatis Carolinae: Geographica, Vol. 23,
No. 1, 1988. 17-37 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Fre. with sum. in
The authors describe the Prudent model, which was developed by INSEE in 1977 and updated in 1980 and 1986 and is designed to provide projections of the population of France at the regional level.
Correspondence: M. Massari, Universite de Paris I, Institut de Demographie, 12 place du Pantheon, 75231 Paris Cedex 05, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
Jan. Current problems concerning population projections
with regard to development planning. [Les problemes actuels des
perspectives demographiques dans le domaine de l'amenagement du
territoire.] Acta Universitatis Carolinae: Geographica, Vol. 23, No.
1, 1988. 93-9 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Fre. with sum. in Cze.
The author describes how available data on population projections are used for development planning purposes in Czechoslovakia.
Correspondence: J. Muller, Institut Tchecoslovaque de l'Amenagement du Territoire, Prague, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
Alison; Smith, Chris. Traffic forecasting: the
contribution of population projections. In: Population
projections: trends, methods and uses, by the British Society for
Population Studies. 1990. 77-81 pp. Office of Population Censuses and
Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In Eng.
"This paper describes how demographic factors influence the [United Kingdom] Department of Transport's long-term forecasts of future traffic demand, both at the national level and the local level where individual road improvements are appraised. The influence of population growth and changes in household size is fairly small at the national level, but at the local level the prediction of the relative growth or decline of different areas, and the nature of land use changes, can have important effects on road scheme appraisal."
Correspondence: A. Muro, Department of Transport, Economic and Environmental Appraisal Division, London, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Alain. World population prospects. [Les perspectives
demographiques mondiales.] Futuribles, No. 141, Mar 1990. 49-78 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
The author summarizes recent U.N. global population projections up to the year 2025. The focus is on the rates of overall growth, the changing balance of population between the developed and developing worlds, demographic aging, and urbanization.
Correspondence: A. Parant, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
Jacques. Economic aspects of projected population change
beyond 2000: the key issues in New Zealand. New Zealand Population
Review, Vol. 16, No. 1, May 1990. 4-25 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In
"Using selected population projections recently published by the [New Zealand] Department of Statistics, this paper contrasts possible population changes during the next thirty years with those observed during the last tricennium. The plausibility of the fertility and migration assumptions of the projections are assessed in the light of current developments and the key economic issues are reviewed. Some international comparisons are made."
Correspondence: J. Poot, Victoria University, Faculty of Commerce and Administration, P.O. Box 600, Wellington, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Keith; Dugmore, Keith. Local and small area
projections. In: Population projections: trends, methods and
uses, by the British Society for Population Studies. 1990. 65-75 pp.
Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS]: London, England. In
"This paper begins by considering who needs projections. It is maintained that all organisations which provide services to the public are likely to need not only current demographic information, but also projections of the future. Varied examples are given. The paper goes on to consider how users' needs for small area projections can be met....Alternative methods and models are outlined. Issues affecting the production of small area projections are also discussed....The final section presents a case study [concerning]...needs for projections for small areas throughout Great Britain and the hybrid method that has been used to produce them."
Correspondence: K. Woodhead, Dorset County Council, Dorchester, Dorset, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
R. I. Populations in health areas. Population Trends,
No. 56, Summer 1989. 31-40 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This...article summarises trends in the population of England and constituent health regions since 1971, and changes which have occurred at the health district level since 1981. Differences in the broad age structure of the populations of health areas are identified: such differences should be taken into account when interpreting variations in the volume and type of health care activity."
Correspondence: R. I. Armitage, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Population and Hospital Statistics Division, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
56:40109 Sarif, Gul
J. Population development in Sierra Leone. Third
World Basic Data on Education and Socio-economic Development
Statistical Series, No. 2, ISBN 3-88939-041-2. 1989. 38 pp. Verlag fur
Interkulturelle Kommunikation: Frankfurt, Germany, Federal Republic of.
Population size, density, and growth rates by sex and age for the regions of Sierra Leone are presented, based on 1985 census data.
Correspondence: Verlag fur Interkulturelle Kommunikation, Postfach 90 09 65, D-6000 Frankfurt 90, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).