Volume 56 - Number 2 - Summer 1990

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

56:20663 Alho, Juha M. Estimation of exposure time distributions. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 2, May 1990. 313-21 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this work I derived formulas for the calculation of the exposure time distributions in an age-structured multistate demographic system and applied them to the modeling of exposures to carcinogens....Many of my calculations pertain to the idealized stationary or stable population that results from the application of time-invariant transition rates to a base population. Formulas for the handling of exposure time distributions in certain nonstable populations were also derived. Both models were applied to the analysis of exposures to carcinogens in the Finnish 15- to 64-year-old male population."
Correspondence: J. M. Alho, University of Illinois, Institute for Environmental Studies and Department of Statistics, Urbana, IL 61801. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20664 Andersen, Per K.; Vaeth, Michael. Simple parametric and nonparametric models for excess and relative mortality. Biometrics, Vol. 45, No. 2, Jun 1989. 523-35 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper studies two classes of hazard-rate-based models [multiplicative hazard models and additive hazard models] for the mortality in a group of individuals taking normal life expectancy into account....A model including both the multiplicative hazard model and the additive hazard model is briefly considered. The use of the models is illustrated on a set of [Danish] data concerning survival after operation for malignant melanoma."
Correspondence: P. K. Andersen, University of Copenhagen, Statistical Research Unit, Blegdamsvej 3, DK-2200 Copenhagen N, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:20665 Andjelkovich, Dragana A.; Richardson, Regina B.; Enterline, Philip E.; Levine, Richard J. Assigning race to occupational cohorts using census block statistics. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 131, No. 5, May 1990. 928-34 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
The main objective of this paper is to describe a method for assigning race to persons whose race is unknown, primarily for the purpose of determining disease frequency among specific ethnic groups. "The method is based on block of residence and the percentage of persons of black race residing on each block. U.S. Census block statistics for Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas, which report the total number of persons residing on each block as well as the proportion of blacks, are utilized for this purpose....[The authors conclude that this method is] useful for epidemiologic and sociologic studies conducted in occupational or nonoccupational settings."
Correspondence: D. A. Andjelkovich, Chemical Industry Institute of Toxicology, Department of Epidemiology, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:20666 Bachi, Roberto. Rational maps and parameters of geographical-statistical data. Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 3, 1989. 337-48 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper deals with progress in methods which utilize sets of data detailed by small areas, by presenting them over 'rational maps' and summarizing them by 'geostatistical parameters'. General characteristics to which the various sets of data refer can thus be evidenced and compared." The author describes the use of these methods by Italy's Central Statistical Institute to produce a statistical atlas of the country, illustrating the spatial distribution of various demographic, economic, and geographical characteristics.
Correspondence: R. Bachi, Hebrew University, 19 Hovevei Zion Street, Jerusalem 92225, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20667 Baydar, Nazli; White, Michael. A method for analyzing backward recurrence time data on residential mobility. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 18, 1988. 105-35 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Data on duration of current residence are used to estimate models of duration-dependent residential mobility rates. "We use the theory of backward recurrence times in renewal processes to infer the hazard rate of residential mobility from the density of the duration of current residence. We demonstrate that the inferences made using the asymptotic solution of the density of the backward recurrence times will be severely biased if the renewal process has not reached stability. We present an unbiased finite time solution and estimate univariate and multivariate models of residential mobility rates using 1980 U.S. census data on duration of current residence. These models include mover-stayer models represented by mixture densities. The multivariate analysis shows that the most important covariates of residential mobility are age, homeownership, race, and presence of school-aged children."
Correspondence: N. Baydar, Columbia University, Morningside Heights, New York, NY 10027. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20668 Centro Studi Investimenti Sociali [CENSIS] (Rome, Italy). The Italy of three censuses. Research carried out by the IRI Group on the transformation of the country. [L'Italia dei tre censimenti. Ricerca promossa dal Gruppo IRI sulle trasformazioni del paese.] ISBN 88-245-0410-8. LC 88-158422. Apr 1988. x, 113 pp. Edizioni di Comunita: Milan, Italy. In Ita.
This book presents a method for statistically analyzing demographic and other data from the Italian censuses of 1951, 1961, 1971, and 1981 and for interpreting the results. The focus is on the changes that have occurred in Italy from 1951 to 1981, particularly changes in family characteristics.
Correspondence: Edizioni di Comunita, Via Mondadori, 20090 Segrate (Milan), Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20669 Convain, Anne-Sophie; Mouillart, Michel. Demography and housing construction. [Demographie et construction de logements.] Revue d'Economie Politique, Vol. 99, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1989. 639-57 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The authors examine how demographic factors are taken into consideration in the development of the macroeconomic models used to determine data on housing starts in France. They propose an alternative model, called DELPHE, that offers a macroeconomic approach to housing needs and gives more consideration to the demographic factors involved. The model makes it possible to develop alternative scenarios of housing needs according to various economic and demographic hypotheses, and to calculate their budgetary implications.
Correspondence: A.-S. Convain, Universite de Paris X, 200 avenue de la Republique, 92001 Nanterre Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:20670 Craig, John. Effects of changing age distributions on five-year age-specific rates. Population Trends, No. 59, Spring 1990. 30-1 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"A sharply changing age structure can affect age-specific rates when calculated for five-year age-groups (e.g. a rate for 20-24 year olds)--whether the topic is fertility, marriage, divorce, migration, or a non-demographic one. This article shows how the passage through a five-year age-group of the cohorts born on either side of the mid 1960s peak in births [in the United Kingdom] could sometimes cause swings of up to 6 per cent in these rates. The conditions for this to occur, and the relevant relationships, are analyzed."
Correspondence: J. Craig, Office of Population Censuses and Surveys, Demographic Analysis and Vital Statistics Division, St. Catherines House, 10 Kingsway, London WC2B 6JP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20671 Freedman, Deborah; Thornton, Arland; Camburn, Donald; Alwin, Duane; Young-DeMarco, Linda. The life history calendar: a technique for collecting retrospective data. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 18, 1988. 37-68 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper details the authors' selection, design, and use of a life history calendar (LHC) to collect retrospective life course data. A sample of nine hundred [U.S.] 23-year-olds, originally interviewed in 1980, were asked about the incidence and timing of various life events in the nine years since their 15th birthday....The following aspects of the LHC are described: (a) the concept, uses, and advantages of the LHC, (b) the time units and domains used, (c) the mode of recording the responses and the decisions and problems involved, (d) interviewer training, and (e) coding. The following results attest to the accuracy of the LHC retrospective data: (a) only four of the calendars had missing data in any month; (b) the data obtained in 1980 about current work, school attendance, marriage, and children showed a remarkable correspondence to the retrospective 1985 LHC reports of these events; (c) the interviewers were positive about the LHC's ability to increase respondent recall."
Correspondence: D. Freedman, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20672 Gong, Gail; Whittemore, Alice S.; Grosser, Stella. Censored survival data with misclassified covariates: a case study of breast-cancer mortality. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 85, No. 409, Mar 1990. 20-8 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
A number of alternative models are used to examine the relationship of survival among breast-cancer patients to the time since diagnosis and to the stage of the disease at diagnosis. The data concern 2,495 women aged 55-64 diagnosed with breast cancer in the San Francisco Bay area of California. In particular, the authors examine the extent to which the bad fit of simple models for breast-cancer survival is due to measurement error in the covariates.
Correspondence: G. Gong, Stanford University, Department of Health Research and Policy, Stanford, CA 94305-5092. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:20673 Guercilena, S.; Zocchetti, C.; Pesatori, A. C. Mortality: comparison of some epidemiological measures. [Mortalita: alcune misure a confronto.] Medicina del Lavoro, Vol. 80, No. 4, Jul-Aug 1989. 341-7 pp. Milan, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng.
"SMR (Standardized Mortality Ratio) is a useful epidemiological measure but it cannot be computed when person-years distributions (denominators) are not available. In this situation PMR (Proportionate Mortality Ratio) and MOR (Mortality Odds Ratio) represent possible alternatives. Definitions of PMR and MOR are presented, and properties and drawbacks of these measures are discussed in relation to SMR's estimates. Fictitious data representing factual situations are used as working examples."
Correspondence: S. Guercilena, Istituto Clinici di Perfezionamento, Clinica del Lavoro L. Devoto, via San Barnaba 8, 20122 Milan, Italy. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:20674 Gusein-Zade, Sabir M. On sets of noninteracting urban places and one model of Curry. Geographical Analysis, Vol. 22, No. 2, Apr 1990. 171-6 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to describe the correspondence between the rank-size dependence for sets of noninteracting urban places (obtained in Gusein-Zade 1975) and Curry's model of the distribution of cities by size (of population) from Curry (1964)." The author describes a deduction of Curry's model. The new model "has a wide field of applicability besides city size distributions. In particular it describes the distribution of letters by frequency of occurrence in a number of languages, the distribution of letters by frequency of occurrence as the first letters of geographical names, as the first letters of surnames, the distribution of key words by frequency of occurrence, and so on."
Correspondence: S. M. Gusein-Zade, Moscow M. V. Lomonosov State University, Department of Geography, 117234 Moscow, Leninskie gory, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

56:20675 Hadeler, K. P. Pair formation in age-structured populations. Acta Applicandae Mathematicae, Vol. 14, No. 1-2, 1989. 91-102 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
The modelling problems associated with pair formation in age-structured populations are discussed in this paper. The author also formulates a class of models for pair formation in human populations and derives some results on persistent distributions.
Correspondence: K. P. Hadeler, Universitat Tubingen, Lehrstuhl fur Biomathematik, Auf der Morgenstelle 10, D-7400 Tubingen, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:20676 Hodge, Robert W.; Ogawa, Naohiro. Some simple methods for the evaluation of causal models. NUPRI Research Paper Series, No. 53, Aug 1989. vi, 34 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"This paper reviews several simple methods for evaluating causal models. A straightforward method for computing the correlations implied by an estimated causal model is presented. The use of the frequency distribution of model errors and the plot of actual vs. implied correlations to examine the overall performance of a model are discussed. Explicit hypotheses about the sources of model errors are introduced and examined in an illustrative data set. These hypotheses concern the signs and magnitudes of the initial correlations, the variable content of the correlations, and the path distance between the variables. Small systematic errors are detected in the illustrative model, despite the fact that its overall fit appears quite good."
Correspondence: Nihon University, Population Research Institute, 3-2 Misaki-cho 1-chome, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 101, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20677 Hoem, Jan M. Identifiability in hazard models with unobserved heterogeneity: the compatibility of two apparently contradictory results. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 37, No. 1, Feb 1990. 124-8 pp. Duluth, Minnesota. In Eng.
"A nonidentifiability result by G. Rodriguez for a mixture model in hazard regression is generalized and its compatibility with an apparently contradictory result by Elbers and Ridder is noted. The latter result turns out to hinge on an assumption whose tenability must be assessed by means of some underlying substantive theory. It cannot be established only from the data normally available in the simple decrement situation for which the mathematical theory has been developed."
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, S-106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20678 Houllier, Francois; Lebreton, Jean-Dominique; Pontier, Dominique. Sampling properties of the asymptotic behavior of age- or stage-grouped population models. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 95, No. 2, 1989. 161-77 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The discrete-time linear recurrent models proposed by Leslie in 1945 and Usher in 1966 for age or stage-grouped populations are discussed with emphasis on the random nature, due to sampling variations, of their well-known asymptotic behavior. The statistical properties of the estimated asymptotic multiplication rate, stage, or age stable structures and mean generation time are inspected by both a theoretical approach and a simulation procedure. Illustrative case studies provide some order of magnitudes of the sampling bias and variance of these statistics."
Correspondence: F. Houllier, Ecole Nationale du Genie Rural des Eaux et des Forets, 14 rue Girardet, 54042 Nancy Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:20679 Jagers, Peter. The Markov structure of population growth. Acta Applicandae Mathematicae, Vol. 14, No. 1-2, 1989. 103-14 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
Some problems concerning the development of general models of population growth are examined, with particular reference to Markovian modelling. The tenet of the paper is that such models can be more realistically attempted by focusing on temporal rather than spatial modifications. Specifically, the time concept considered is linked to the dependent structure inherent in the partial order of descent from mother to child. The author attempts to develop "a general theory of populations of individuals under what might be called free reproduction. Hence, the only dependence assumed between individuals is that from mothers to children." He suggests that the results "can be translated into assertions about evolution in real, physical time and also about the final, stable or balanced, composition of populations, over ages, types, family structure, and many other aspects of populations."
Correspondence: P. Jagers, Gothenburg University, Department of Mathematics, S-412 96 Gothenberg, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:20680 Kondo, Hitoshi. International factor mobility and production technology. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 2, No. 4, Dec 1989. 281-99 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"The present paper systematically investigates the pattern and effect of international factor mobility caused by international differences of production technology in an endogenous-population-growth and overlapping-generations model. We show here that if the autarkic steady state in each country is characterized by under-investment relative to the Golden Rule, international labour migration will take place to the country with a more capital-saving or a neutrally superior technology, and then the capital-labour ratio and the demand for children per family in that country will be lower."
Correspondence: H. Kondo, Nanzan University, Faculty of Economics, 18 Yamazato-cho, Showa-Ku, Nagoya 466, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20681 Rao, B. Raja. Life expectancy for a class of life distributions having the "setting the clock back to zero" property. Mathematical Biosciences, Vol. 98, No. 2, Mar 1990. 251-71 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"It is demonstrated that the expression for the life expectancy of an individual in biomedical investigations can be greatly simplified if the class of life distributions possesses what has been called the "setting the clock back to zero" property....It is shown that the Gompertzian growth process, Krane's family of life distributions, and the linear hazard exponential distribution have this property. To illustrate the use of this property, an individual's life expectancy is tabulated for several choices of the parameter values when the individual's life distribution belongs to a Gompertzian growth process."
Correspondence: B. R. Rao, University of Pittsburgh, Graduate School of Public Health, Department of Biostatistics, Pittsburgh, PA 15261. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

56:20682 Sharma, H. L.; Tiwari, H. C. Fitting two parameter discrete distributions to migration data having one common parameter. Rural Demography, Vol. 14, No. 1-2, 1987. 21-9 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
The focus of this paper is on fitting two parameter discrete distributions to migration data that have one common parameter. The data are from a 1978 survey of rural development and population growth in India.
Correspondence: H. L. Sharma, J.N.K.V.V., Department of Mathematics and Statistics, Jabalpur, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:20683 Vaupel, James W. Relatives' risks: frailty models of life history data. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 37, No. 1, Feb 1990. 220-34 pp. Duluth, Minnesota. In Eng.
The author develops "a method for applying frailty models based on biological theory to life-history data on related individuals and events....[He] concisely summarizes the essence of the proposed method and then adumbrates some illustrative applications. The article concludes with a brief discussion of the three general purposes of frailty modeling of life history data." The model is tested using Danish data on the longevity of twins.
Correspondence: J. W. Vaupel, University of Minnesota, Humphrey Institute, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, 301 19th Avenue South, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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