**56:10688** **Barro,
Robert J.; Becker, Gary S.** *Fertility choice in a model of
economic growth.* Econometrica, Vol. 57, No. 2, Mar 1989. 481-501
pp. Evanston, Illinois. In Eng.

"Altruistic parents make choices of
family size along with decisions about consumption and
intergenerational transfers. We apply this framework to a closed
economy, where the determination of interest rates and wage rates is
simultaneous with the determination of population growth and the
accumulation of capital. Thus, we extend the literature on optimal
economic growth to allow for optimizing choices of fertility and
intergenerational transfers. We use the model to assess the effects of
child-rearing costs, the tax system, the conditions of technology and
preferences, and shocks to the initial levels of population and the
capital stock."*Location:* Princeton University Library
(PF).

**56:10689** **Bhat, P. N.
Mari.** *Estimating transition probabilities of age
misstatement.* Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990. 149-63 pp.
Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.

The author proposes "an indirect
method of estimating gross age errors from essentially the same data
needed for the computation of net age errors, namely, a population's
recorded age distribution and an estimate of its true age distribution.
The estimation methodology is based on the biproportional adjustment
algorithm, which is outlined in the next section. Later sections deal
with the application of the procedure to Indian data of 1971-1981,
which helps elucidate some of the finer points of the estimation
procedure as well as the insights to be obtained from knowing gross age
errors."*Correspondence:* P. N. M. Bhat, Centre for
Development Studies, Trivandrum 695 011, India. *Location:*
Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10690** **Blanchet,
Didier.** *Population growth and increase in per capita
product during the demographic transition: their interaction viewed in
the light of a Malthusian model.* [Croissance de la population et
du produit par tete au cours de la transition demographique: un modele
malthusien peut-il rendre compte de leurs relations?] Population, Vol.
44, No. 3, May-Jun 1989. 613-29 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in
Eng; Spa.

"This paper examines how the relationship between
economic and demographic growth rates will vary in a model of the
demographic transition where both growth rates are simultaneously
pulled by an exogenous trend of technical progress. Such a model can
be labelled Malthusian, by comparison with models of endogenous
technical progress, to which it is usual to associate the name of E.
Boserup. We show that such a model can predict some correlations
between the two growth rates which are first positive and then
negative." World Bank data are used to illustrate the model's accurate
reflection of the situation in developing
countries.*Correspondence:* D. Blanchet, Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. *Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10691**
**Chandrasekaran, C.; Narayana, K. R.** *A comparative
study of the application of the cross-check and indirect methods for
estimating vital rates using data of the Mysore Population Survey,
India.* Demography India, Vol. 17, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1988. 161-85 pp.
Delhi, India. In Eng.

This is a comparative study of two procedures
for estimating vital rates in developing countries. The authors
examine the quality of the estimates of birth and death rates provided
by the cross-check method and an indirect estimation technique using
data obtained from the Mysore Population Survey conducted in 1961 in
India.*Correspondence:* C. Chandrasekaran, SRI KRIPA, 79/3
Benson Cross Road, Bangalore 560 046, India. *Location:*
Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10692** **Clogg,
Clifford C.; Massagli, Michael P.; Eliason, Scott R.**
*Population undercount and social science research.* Social
Indicators Research, Vol. 21, No. 6, Dec 1989. 559-98 pp. Dordrecht,
Netherlands. In Eng.

"The undercount problem in the [U.S.]
decennial census has important implications for social science research
based directly or indirectly on census data. Because undercount rates
(or coverage rates) vary by age, race, residence, and other factors
typically studied in social research, important conceptual difficulties
arise in using census results to corroborate sampling frames or to
validate survey results. Differential undercount, particularly for
analyses based on small areas, could produce substantial variability in
prevalence rates in cases where the denominators for those rates are
derived from the census. Several examples where the undercount problem
arises in social science research, including survey research, are
considered. The adjustment problem--whether to adjust, how to adjust,
and how much to adjust--is also considered from the point of view of
social science research."*Correspondence:* C. C. Clogg,
Pennsylvania State University, Sociology Department, 211 Oswald Tower,
University Park, PA 16802. *Location:* Princeton University
Library (PR).

**56:10693** **Courgeau,
Daniel; Lelievre, Eva.** *A biographical approach to
demography.* [L'approche biographique en demographie.] Revue
Francaise de Sociologie, Vol. 31, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 55-74, 169-70,
172-4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Spa.

The
merits of a biographical approach to demographic analysis are examined
using survey data. "The analysis of complex interaction between
diverse phenomena, using bivariate or multivariate models has been
elaborated, and it allows the discovery of various types of dependence
between events (reciprocal or unilateral) or of their independence. At
this stage, heterogeneity of the observed populations was introduced,
with the help of parametric or semi-parametric models, which point out
the different strategies followed. The problems caused by non-observed
heterogeneity have been partially solved but interdisciplinary
collaboration would now appear to be
necessary."*Correspondence:* D. Courgeau, Institut National
d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14,
France. *Location:* Princeton University Library (PR).

**56:10694**
**Feichtinger, Gustav; Sorger, Gerhard.** *Capital
accumulation, aspiration adjustment, and population growth: limit
cycles in an Easterlin-type model.* Mathematical Population
Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1990. 93-103, 161 pp. New York, New
York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.

"One of the recent
interesting hypotheses of population growth is due to Easterlin who
suggests the possibility of self-generating fluctuations in birth
numbers. The present paper tries to answer the question whether
feedback mechanisms produce persistent oscillations in population
growth. A system of two nonlinear differential equations for the per
capita capital stock and the aspiration level is studied by a phase
portrait analysis. Using the Poincare-Bendixson theorem we derive
sufficient conditions for the existence of a stable limit
cycle."*Correspondence:* G. Feichtinger, Technische
Universitat, Institut fur Okonometrie, Operations Research und
Systemtheorie, Argentinierstrasse 8/119, 1040 Vienna, Austria.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10695** **Gill,
Richard; Keilman, Nico.** *On the estimation of
multidimensional demographic models with population registration
data.* Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1990.
119-43, 161 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum.
in Fre.

"In this paper the estimation of multidimensional
demographic models is investigated in situations where population
registration data are available. With this kind of aggregate data,
estimation by traditional methods is not possible. We look at two
versions of the multidimensional model: the constant intensities model
and the linear integration model. Some logical inconsistencies in the
derivation of the latter are discussed. In particular, we argue that
the linear integration model is not compatible with a Markov process.
A new algorithm for the estimation of the constant intensities model
with population registration data is proposed. Some preliminary
results on the mathematical and statistical properties of this method
are given. The algorithm is applied to Dutch nuptiality
data."*Correspondence:* R. Gill, Centre for Mathematics and
Computer Science, P.O. Box 4079, 1009 AB Amsterdam, Netherlands.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10696** **Gonul,
Fusun F.** *Comparison of hazard functions with duration
dependence and stayer-mover structure with an application to
divorce.* Economics Letters, Vol. 30, No. 1, 1989. 31-6 pp.
Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.

"Performances of hazard functions
with an implicit stayer-mover structure are examined in Monte Carlo
samples. The results are then applied to data on duration of first
marriages." The data concern 649 women from the U.S. National
Longitudinal Survey aged 14-24 when first interviewed in
1968.*Correspondence:* F. F. Gonul, Carnegie Mellon
University, Pittsburgh, PA 15213. *Location:* World Bank, Joint
Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

**56:10697** **Graham,
Wendy; Brass, William.** *Evaluation of field work on the
sisterhood method for measuring maternal mortality.* [Evaluacion
del trabajo de campo del metodo de la sobrevivencia de hermanas para
medir la mortalidad materna.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47,
Apr-Aug 1988. 77-103 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.

The authors describe the use of the sisterhood method for
estimating maternal mortality. An introductory chapter considers
characteristics of maternal mortality that affect its measurement. The
main section of the article describes the collection of information in
field trials conducted in the Gambia and Peru. In the last section,
the method's effectiveness is compared with that of other techniques
for measuring maternal mortality.*Correspondence:* W.
Graham, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for
Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10698** **Guzman,
Jose M.** *The previous birth technique: the Latin American
experience.* [El procedimiento del hijo previo: la experiencia
latinoamericana.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47, Apr-Aug 1988.
41-75 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.

The author
describes the use of the previous birth technique, developed by Brass
and Macrae, in Latin American countries. The technique involves the
estimation of infant and child mortality using data on the survivorship
of previous children. The focus is on the experiences of CELADE in
collecting data in maternity hospitals in Argentina, Bolivia, the
Dominican Republic, and Honduras. The inclusion of survey questions
related to dates of birth and death of the previous child is
evaluated.*Correspondence:* J. M. Guzman, Centro
Latinoamericano de Demografia, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag
Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. *Location:* Princeton
University Library (SPR).

**56:10699** **Keyfitz,
Nathan.** *The profile of intercohort increase.*
Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 2, No. 2, 1990. 105-17, 161 pp.
New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.

"The
paper develops a technique for identifying the cohorts that initiated
what in the 1950s was designated the population explosion. A numerical
example is given for Indonesia, but essentially the same picture
appears for many other countries, and for the aggregate of the world.
The intercohort increase can be estimated for each age using two
successive censuses; the method here developed gives very nearly the
same increase whatever age is used for the
estimate."*Correspondence:* N. Keyfitz, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10700**
**Kupiszewski, Marek.** *The use of Rogers's projection
model in the study of changes in the location and structure of the
population in Poland.* [Vyuziti Rogersova projekcniho modelu pri
studiu zmen rozmisteni a struktury obyvatelstva v Polsku.] Demografie,
Vol. 31, No. 4, 1989. 339-46 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze.

The author describes how the multiregional mathematical demographic
techniques developed by Andrei Rogers and others have been applied to
the study of changes in the spatial distribution and characteristics of
the population in Poland.*Location:* Princeton University
Library (SPR).

**56:10701** **Lopez Rios,
Olga; Wunsch, Guillaume.** *Causality, systems, and dynamic
models. Three approaches of the explanation in demography.*
[Causalidad, sistemas y modelos dinamicos. Tres enfoques de la
explicacion en demografia.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47,
Apr-Aug 1988. 121-34 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.

The authors compare three methods of demographic analysis: "causal
analysis, the transition models and the dynamic models. The purpose of
these three approaches is not the same: transition models examine the
transformation of a system during a given period; the dynamic model
outlines the evolution of a social process through time; the causal
analysis describes the mechanism through which the causes produce its
effects. The three approaches differ also in the way they take time
into account...[In particular,] causal static models are not pertinent
in demographic research."*Correspondence:* O. Lopez Rios,
Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie, Place
Montesquieu 1, Boite 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10702** **Moreland,
R. Scott.** *Modeling for population, human resources and
equity: selected papers from the Arab and International Meeting on
Modeling for Development Planning.* ISBN 9973-14-00-1. 1988. vi,
241 pp. League of Arab States, Population Research Unit: Tunis,
Tunisia. In Eng.

Selected papers are presented from a meeting on
the use of modeling in development planning, held in Rabat, Morocco, in
April 1985. The seminar focused on second-generation models involving
behavioral relationships. "The main objective of the seminar was to
discuss features of these models, their structure, constraints, and
results if implemented and to examine what one can expect when people
are explicitly incorporated into development models. Another objective
was to see how economic-human modeling in the Arab region can benefit
accordingly. A third objective was to discuss the contribution of
these models to the planning process, and their relevance to the
specific economies of the region. Finally, the seminar served as an
opportunity for interaction between planners and decision-makers in the
Arab world and international and Arab experts specialized in modeling
for development planning."*Correspondence:* League of Arab
States, Population Research Unit, 37 Avenue Khereddine Pacha, Tunis,
Tunisia. *Location:* Population Council Library, New York, NY.

**56:10703** **Phibbs,
Peter.** *Demographic-economic impact forecasting in
non-metropolitan regions: an Australian example.* In: Advances in
regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P.
Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 150-64 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England.
In Eng.

Some problems concerning impact forecasts generated by
input-output analysis are considered, particularly as they affect
changes in service employment. Using the example of the impact of a
coal mine expansion in New South Wales, Australia, the author shows how
these problems can be overcome by using a simple demographic-economic
impact model.*Correspondence:* P. Phibbs, University of
Sydney, Department of Town and Country Planning, Sydney, New South
Wales 2006, Australia. *Location:* Princeton University Library
(SPR).

**56:10704** **Pitt, Mark
M.; Rosenzweig, Mark R.** *The selectivity of fertility and
the determinants of human capital investments: parametric and
semi-parametric estimates.* Economic Development Center Bulletin,
No. 89-9, Oct 1989. 37 pp. University of Minnesota, Department of
Economics, Economic Development Center: Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.

"In this paper we assess the importance of heterogeneity and
selective fertility in altering estimates and interpretations of the
determinants of the human capital of children. We set out a sequential
model of human capital investments in children incorporating endogenous
fertility and heterogeneity in human capital endowments to illustrate
the fertility selection problem and issues of identification.
Empirical results based on parametric and semi-parametric estimates of
selectivity models applied to data on birthweight and schooling in
Malaysia indicate that the hypothesis of no fertility selection is
strongly rejected, with mothers having higher birthweight children
tending to have substantially lower birth probabilities (negative birth
selectivity). As a consequence, the positive association between
mother's schooling and birthweight is substantially underestimated and
the positive effects of delaying childbearing overestimated when birth
selectivity is not taken into account."*Correspondence:* M.
M. Pitt, Brown University, Providence, RI 02912. *Location:*
Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10705** **Rodriguez,
A.** *The dependency ratio and optimum population growth.
The total utility case.* Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1,
No. 2, Oct 1988. 141-56 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal
Republic of. In Eng.

"This paper examines the effects of
introducing a variable dependency ratio in Dasgupta's (1969) model. We
consider a case in which the probability of dying as well as the rate
of participation in the labor force change with age. It is shown that
the inclusion of those realistic demographic features slows down the
optimal rate of population growth and increases the rate of
consumption. In spite of the reduction in the rate of population
growth, this rate can still be positive. The sensitivity of the
solutions to changes in the demographic parameters of the model is
examined."*Correspondence:* A. Rodriquez, Rutgers
University, Department of Economics, New Jersey Hall, New Brunswick, NJ
08903. *Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10706** **Rogers,
Andrei.** *The multistate stable population model with
immigration.* Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-89-4, Jul
1989. 45 pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science,
Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.

"This paper outlines
the discrete-time and continuous-time formulations of the stable
population model with immigration, showing their commonality. It then
illustrates how the model can be extended to include multiple
interacting populations, and goes on to consider a multistate version
of reproductive value that further illuminates the evolutionary
dynamics of an 'open' model of multistate population growth and
redistribution. Attention is restricted to results arising from a
fertility regime that is below replacement level." The models are
illustrated using data for the United
States.*Correspondence:* University of Colorado, Institute
of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Boulder, CO 80309.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10707**
**Singarimbun, Masri.** *Micro-demographic approach:
harmonization between demography and anthropology.* [Pendekatan
mikro demografi: perpaduan antara demografi dan antropologi.] Majalah
Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of Demography, Vol. 16, No. 31,
Jun 1989. 1-15 pp. Jakarta, Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in Eng.

The author discusses demographic microanalysis, the reasons for
using this approach, and the advantages and disadvantages of sampling
studies.*Correspondence:* M. Singarimbun, Universitas Gajah
Mada, Pusat Penelitian Studi Kependudukan, Bulaksumur, Yogyakarta
55281, Indonesia. *Location:* Princeton University Library
(SPR).

**56:10708** **Stark, O.;
Yitzhaki, S.** *Merging populations, stochastic dominance and
Lorenz curves.* Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 2, Oct
1988. 157-61 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic
of. In Eng.

"In typical comparisons of inequality the condition
that the means of the distributions are equal is hardly met. In these
cases, the widely used Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion is
neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for stochastic dominance.
It is suggested to replace the Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion
with an absolute Lorenz curves non-intersection criterion. The
implications of adopting this criterion are discussed in the context of
fixed populations and changing
populations."*Correspondence:* O. Stark, Harvard University,
Cambridge, MA 02138. *Location:* Princeton University Library
(SPR).

**56:10709** **Townsend,
Nicholas; Hammel, E. A.** *Age estimation from the number of
teeth erupted in young children: an aid to demographic surveys.*
Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990. 165-74 pp. Alexandria, Virginia.
In Eng.

"The reporting of children's ages by parents is
surprisingly inaccurate in many innumerate societies, but accurate
knowledge of age is important for estimating recent changes in
demographic rates. The timing of the eruption of children's teeth is
largely independent of environmental influences and can provide a
relatively accurate and unbiased estimate of a child's age. We have
collected published data from 42 studies of children's dentition and
have transformed them into estimates of age for children with
particular numbers of teeth. We present estimates for different
populations, but the lack of significant differences between these
estimates justifies the use of a standard
set."*Correspondence:* N. Townsend, University of
California, Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue,
Berkeley, CA 94720. *Location:* Princeton University Library
(SPR).

**56:10710** **Tyler, P.;
Rhodes, J.** *A model with which to forecast employment and
population change at the regional and sub-regional level.* In:
Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models,
edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 124-49 pp. Belhaven Press:
London, England. In Eng.

The authors describe current efforts to
produce a regional and subregional population and employment
forecasting model for the United Kingdom. The project is being
developed jointly by the Department of Land Economy at Cambridge
University and PA Cambridge Economic Consultants. The model emphasizes
the importance of forecasting the growth of labor demand at regional
and local levels. The model is illustrated using data for the
Southeast of England.*Correspondence:* P. Tyler, University
of Cambridge, Department of Land Economy, 19 Silver Street, Cambridge
CB2 1TN, England. *Location:* Princeton University Library
(SPR).

**56:10711** **Ulm,
K.** *A simple method to calculate the confidence interval of
a standardized mortality ratio (SMR).* American Journal of
Epidemiology, Vol. 131, No. 2, Feb 1990. 373-5 pp. Baltimore, Maryland.
In Eng.

"In analyzing standardized mortality ratios (SMRs), it is
of interest to calculate a confidence interval for the true SMR. The
exact limits of a specific interval can be obtained by means of the
Poisson distribution either within an iterative procedure or by one of
the tables. The limits can be approximated in using one of various
shortcut methods. In this paper, a method is described for calculating
the exact limits in a simple and easy way."*Correspondence:*
K. Ulm, Technical University of Munich, Institute for Medical
Statistics and Epidemiology, 8000 Munich 80, Federal Republic of
Germany. *Location:* Princeton University Library (SZ).

**56:10712**
**Venkatacharya, K.** *Simplified birth rate estimates
under nonstable conditions.* Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990.
131-47 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.

The author evaluates
Coale's robust birth rate estimate by "using two improved
approximations....In Coale's birth rate estimation, the denominator of
the birth rate, that is, person years, is adjusted for nonstability.
By varying this criterion of adjustment, I show that two new types of
Coale robust birth rate estimate can be obtained. These variations in
the construction of the birth rate lead to nine forms of Coale's birth
rate estimate. Under very general conditions, all of these birth rate
estimates are equal to the birth rate obtainable by the reverse
survival method. A simplified birth rate estimate is derived that does
away with the need to refer to the stable or life table models...."
The model is illustrated with data for nine African countries.

For
the paper by Ansley Coale, published in 1981, see 48:20268.
*Correspondence:* K. Venkatacharya, University of Ghana,
Regional Institute for Population Studies, Legon, Ghana.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**56:10713** **Wunsch,
Guillaume.** *Causal theory and causal modeling: beyond
description in the social sciences.* ISBN 90-6186-282-5. 1988. 200
pp. Leuven University Press: Louvain, Belgium. In Eng.

A number of
basic problems of data analysis in the social sciences are addressed in
this study, with some emphasis on demography. The author is concerned
"with conceptualization, with the assessment of the reliability and
validity of indicators, with the congruence of theory with statistical
models, and--most prominently--with causal thinking and with causal
modeling."*Correspondence:* Leuven University Press,
Krakenstraat 3, B-3000 Louvain, Belgium. *Location:* Princeton
University Library (SPR).

**56:10714** **Zaba,
Basia.** *Relational models: their uses in demography.*
CPS Research Paper, No. 89-1, ISBN 0-902657-25-9. Aug 1989. iv, 34 pp.
University of London, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine,
Centre for Population Studies: London, England. In Eng.

"This paper
will review the use which has been made of relational models in
demographic analysis, and show how several original ideas of Brass have
been copied, built upon and adapted by other demographers, so that his
contributions in this field are even wider than the collection of
papers which actually bear his name. The simple mathematical ideas
underlying the relational models of fertility, mortality and migration
are summarised briefly and some of their newer applications are
discussed."*Correspondence:* University of London, London
School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies,
99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. *Location:* Princeton
University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1990-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.