Volume 56 - Number 1 - Spring 1990

E. Mortality

Studies that treat quantitative mortality data analytically. Methodological studies primarily concerned with mortality are cited in this division and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models , if necessary. The main references to crude data are in the vital statistics items in S. Official Statistical Publications .

E.1. General Mortality

Studies of overall mortality and comparisons of several types of mortality. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are classified under the major section covered, or, if this is not self-evident, included here under General Mortality.

56:10093 Armenian, Haroutune K.; McCarthy, James F.; Balabanian, Sevan G. O. Patterns of mortality in Armenian parish records from eleven countries. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 130, No. 6, Dec 1989. 1,227-35 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"A study of the trends and distributions of mortality in parish records of Armenian churches from 11 countries spanning over 242 years is the basis of this report. In all parishes, the relative proportion of deaths in the older age groups gradually increased over the study period. Following a review of the most important causes of death, an effort was made to identify clusters and outbreaks of specific causes of death." Particular attention is paid to the effects of disease and the two world wars on mortality.
Correspondence: H. K. Armenian, Johns Hopkins University School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Epidemiology, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10094 Austria. Statistisches Zentralamt (Vienna, Austria). Austrian atlas of causes of death 1978-1984: with special reference to cancer sites. [Osterreichischer Todesursachenatlas 1978/84: unter besonderer Berucksichtigung der Krebslokalisationen.] Beitrage zur Osterreichischen Statistik, No. 933, 1989. 180 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
"The spatial distribution of mortality in Austria was demonstrated by a series of 93 maps for administrative districts based on statistical analysis of mortality during the period 1978 to 1984." Causes of death are shown separately, with particular attention to different cancer sites. The maps are based on age-adjusted mortality rates calculated using the direct method of standardization. "The maps revealed substantial spatial variation both for the overall mortality and for most of the 28 cause of death categories examined."
Correspondence: Osterreichisches Statistisches Zentralamt, Informationsabteilung, Hintere Zollamtsstrasse 2b, Postfach 9000, A-1033 Vienna, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10095 Berg-Hamon, Christine; Lopez, Albert. Mortality in Reunion. [La mortalite a la Reunion.] Economie de la Reunion, No. 41, May-Jun 1989. 2-11 pp. Ste.-Clothilde, Reunion. In Fre.
Recent trends in mortality in Reunion are reviewed using data from a variety of official sources. The authors note that the decline in mortality is slowing and that mortality differentials by sex in favor of women are increasing. Reasons for these mortality differentials are identified, including improvements in health care for women and risks of mortality for men from traffic accidents, alcohol consumption, and smoking.
Correspondence: C. Berg-Hamon, Direction Departementale de l'Action Sanitaire et Sociale, Ste.-Clothilde, Reunion. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10096 Bernat Gil, Luis M.; Rathwell, Tom. The effect of health services on mortality: amenable and non-amenable causes in Spain. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 3, Sep 1989. 652-7 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper considers the relevance of 'avoidable' deaths as an outcome measure for the Spanish health system. Mortality data for 1960 to 1984 were examined and the results, with the exception of cancer of the cervix, show a marked decline in 'avoidable' deaths, consistent with studies elsewhere. This pattern of 'avoidable' deaths may reflect either a decrease in the incidence of disease or better medical management of disease leading to fewer deaths. The 'avoidable' mortality may well be a sensitive indicator of the efficacy of a country's health care system."
Correspondence: T. Rathwell, University of Leeds, Nuffield Institute for Health Services Studies, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10097 Camposortega Cruz, Sergio. The evolution of mortality in Mexico, 1940-1980. [La evolucion de la mortalidad en Mexico, 1940-1980.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 4, No. 2, May-Aug 1989. 229-64, 429 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes mortality trends in Mexico in the twentieth century, particularly since 1940. Trends are examined according to age, sex, and cause of death. The decline in mortality is then considered in the context of the country's history and other mortality transitions. Regional variations and excess mortality are also described.
Correspondence: S. Camposortega Cruz, Colegio de Mexico, Centro de Estudios Demograficos y de Desarrollo Urbano, Camino al Ajusco 20, 10740 Mexico DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10098 Herrera Leon, Lorenzo; Gonzalez Perez, Guillermo; Galvez Gonzalez, Ana M. Brief considerations on the prospects of increasing life expectancy in Cuba. [Breves consideraciones sobre las perspectivas del incremento de la expectativa de vida en Cuba.] Revista Cubana de Salud Publica, Vol. 15, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1989. 259-71 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The authors analyze trends in life expectancy in Cuba according to cause of death. Changes in life expectancy at birth and at different ages, especially ages under five, are described. Trends in Cuba are compared with those in selected developed countries for a 10-year period. It is concluded that changes in life expectancy will depend on future trends in infant mortality and on trends in mortality from heart disease, malignant tumors, cerebrovascular disease, and accidents and other violent deaths.
Correspondence: L. Herrera Leon, Ministerio de Salud Publica, Calle 23 y N, Vedado, Havana, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10099 Kedelski, Mieczyslaw. Trends and fluctuations in infant mortality and expectation of life by sex in Eastern European countries (1956-1985). [Trendy oraz wahania umieralnosci niemowlat i trwania zycia ludnosci wedlug plci w krajach Europy Wschodniej (1956-1985).] Studia Demograficzne, No. 1/95, 1989. 3-33 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Trends in infant mortality and life expectancy by sex are examined for six Eastern European countries for the period 1956-1985. Using data from official sources for each country, the author created life tables following Chiang's method. Findings reveal a downward trend in male life expectancy in Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria. East Germany shows an increase in the mean length of life of males and females.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10100 Kono, Shigemi; Takahashi, Shigesato. Mortality trends in Japan: why has the Japanese life expectancy kept on increasing? Institute of Population Problems Working Paper Series, No. 1, Jul 1989. 22 pp. Institute of Population Problems: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"The purpose of the present report is to explain briefly why the life expectancy of the Japanese has kept on increasing steadily while the stagnation prevails in some other developed countries...." Sections are included on the contributions of changing mortality by age and by cause of death. Comparisons are then made between Japanese and U.S. white males. The impact of improvements in nutritional conditions is noted.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-45, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10101 McNown, Robert; Rogers, Andrei. Time-series analysis forecasts of a parameterised mortality schedule. In: Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 107-23 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England. In Eng.
Problems concerning the method used to forecast age-specific mortality rates are examined. "First, we review the demographer's well-known life-table framework for analysing survivorship and introduce alternative specifications of model mortality schedules. Next, we examine more fully the characteristics of a particularly effective mathematical representation of such schedules: the Heligman-Pollard model mortality schedule. Then we use this model schedule to describe patterns of mortality for the U.S. during this century. A time-series analysis of these data is then presented and followed by a forecast of future U.S. mortality. Finally, the chapter concludes with an assessment and discussion of future research directions."
Correspondence: R. McNown, University of Colorado, Department of Economics, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10102 Phillips, Andrew; Shaper, A. Gerald; Whincup, Peter H. Association between serum albumin and mortality from cardiovascular disease, cancer, and other causes. Lancet, No. 8677, Dec 16, 1989. 1,434-6 pp. Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
The association between serum albumin and mortality is examined using data on 660 deaths occurring in the British Regional Heart Study, a prospective study of 7,735 middle-aged men. "There was a marked increase in mortality rate with decreasing serum albumin concentrations that persisted even after adjustment for age, social class, town of residence, cigarette smoking, serum total cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, serum total calcium, and forced expiratory volume....A similar pattern was observed for cardiovascular, cancer, and other deaths." The authors note that "these results must be interpreted with caution since there was no prior hypothesis concerning serum albumin. However, the strength of the association between serum albumin and mortality seems to be comparable with that for cigarette smoking."
Correspondence: A. Phillips, Royal Free Hospital School of Medicine, Department of Clinical Epidemiology and General Practice, Rowland Hill Street, London NW3 2PF, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10103 Rao, Vijayendra. Diet, mortality and life expectancy: a cross national analysis. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 1, No. 3, 1988. 225-33 pp. New York, New York/Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"There are numerous reasons why mortality and life expectancy vary between countries. Epidemiological studies seem to indicate that dietary variations may be among them. A sample of 51 countries studied with data from the International Comparisons Project and other sources, shows that after controlling for nutrient intake, consumption of medical goods and services, income distribution, weather, and literacy, countries with more meat and poultry in their diet have lower life expectancies after age five. The results for infant mortality and child death between one and five indicate that a more animal-intensive diet may be actually beneficial, especially if fish consumption is increased and meat and poultry consumption reduced."
Correspondence: V. Rao, University of Pennsylvania, Department of Economics, 3718 Locust Walk/CR, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6297. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10104 Rose, Geoffrey; Shipley, Martin. Effects of coronary risk reduction on the pattern of mortality. Lancet, Vol. 335, No. 8684, Feb 3, 1990. 275-7 pp. Baltimore, Maryland/London, England. In Eng.
The effects of a reduction in mortality from coronary risk factors on the pattern of mortality in the United Kingdom are examined using data from the Whitehall Study, which included 18,403 males aged 40-64 who have been followed up over a 15-year period. The results show that "non-smokers live longer than smokers, but death (when it comes) is more likely to be due to heart attack and less likely to be due to cancer. By contrast a lower level of plasma cholesterol, which is also associated with longer life, is expected to reduce the lifetime risk of fatal heart attack, its place then being taken by a typical mixture of other causes of death."
Correspondence: G. Rose, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Department of Epidemiology and Population Sciences, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10105 Rotevatn, Svein; Akslen, Lars A.; Bjelke, Erik. Lifestyle and mortality among Norwegian men. Preventive Medicine, Vol. 18, No. 4, Jul 1989. 433-43 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The relationships among six different habits (cigarette smoking, physical activity, frequency of alcohol and of fruit and vegetable consumption, and daily bread and potato consumption) and mortality are analyzed using data obtained by postal surveys on 10,187 Norwegian men aged 35-74 who were followed up over the period 1967-1978. "Analyses, stratified by age, place of residence, marital status, and socioeconomic group, showed an association between the six variables and observed/expected deaths, as well as odds ratio estimates. A health practice score, obtained by adding the number of favorable habits, showed a strong inverse relationship with total mortality as well as deaths from cancer, cardiovascular diseases, and other causes. Odds ratio estimates for men with only favorable habits vs those with at most one such habit, were 0.31 for total mortality, 0.44 for cancer, and 0.36 for cardiovascular mortallty. Separate analyses among current smokers and nonsmokers showed a particularly strong association between the five other habits and mortality from cardiovascular disease."
Correspondence: S. Rotevatn, University of Bergen, Department of Anatomy, Arstadveien 19, N-5009 Bergen, Norway. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10106 Schwartz, Joel; Marcus, Allan. Mortality and air pollution in London: a time series analysis. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 131, No. 1, Jan 1990. 185-94 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"The relation between air pollution and mortality in London [England] was examined for the winters of 1958-1972. The data exhibited a high degree of autocorrelation, requiring analyses using autoregressive models. There was a highly significant relation between mortality and either particulate matter or sulfur dioxide (after controlling for temperature and humidity), both overall and in each individual year....In models with both pollutants, particulate matter remained a significant predictor with about a 10% reduction in its estimated coefficients, while sulfur dioxide was insignificant, with a large drop in its estimated coefficient. The authors conclude that particulates are strongly associated with mortality rates in London, and the relation is likely causal."
Correspondence: J. Schwartz, Environmental Protection Agency, Office of Policy Analysis PM 221, 401 M Street SW, Washington, D.C. 20460. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10107 Siampos, Georgios. Mortality decline and longevity in Greece. [E meiose tes thnesimotetas kai e epimekunse tes zoes sten Ellada.] 1988. [40] pp. Athens School of Economics and Business Science, Department of Statistics and Information Science: Athens, Greece. In Gre. with sum. in Eng.
Mortality trends in Greece since the end of World War II are analyzed. Standardized rates and life tables are used to take into account the effects of the changing age composition of the population and differences in mortality over time and by region. The results indicate that life expectancy at birth from 1950 to 1985 has increased 8.1 years for males and 10.1 years for females to 72.6 for men and 77.1 for women. Excess mortality for males is pronounced between the ages of 15 and 35.
Correspondence: Athens School of Economics and Business Science, Department of Statistics and Information Science, 76 Patission Street, Athens 104 34, Greece. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10108 Singh, K. P. Green revolution and child survival in the state of Punjab. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 379-88 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"The present paper is...an endeavour to examine the extent of child survival and child nutrition in the state of Punjab [India]. The data have been drawn from census reports, Sample Registration Scheme..., statistical abstract and other published research studies." It is noted that the state has developed its agricultural resources successfully and that it has the highest per capita income in the country. However, "in spite of all that has been done and the economic transformation that has taken place due to the green revolution, [the] infant mortality rate is still high and the extent of malnutrition is also fairly high."
Correspondence: K. P. Singh, Panjab University, Department of Sociology, Population Research Centre, Chandigarh 160 014, Union Territory, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10109 Szreter, Simon. The importance of social intervention in Britain's mortality decline c. 1850-1914: a re-interpretation. CEPR Discussion Paper, No. 121, Jul 1986. iii, 37 pp. Centre for Economic Policy Research [CEPR]: London, England. In Eng.
This is a critique of the interpretation by T. McKeown and others of the causes of the mortality decline that occurred in Britain during the nineteenth and early twentieth centuries. An alternative hypothesis is developed that "places emphasis on the importance of preventive public health measures and the significance of local authorities' responses to the challenge of urban congestion."
Correspondence: CEPR, 6 Duke of York Street, London SW1Y 6LA, England. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10110 Taylor, Richard; Lewis, Nancy D.; Levy, Sue. Societies in transition: mortality patterns in Pacific Island populations. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 3, Sep 1989. 634-46 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Mortality data [on 22 Pacific Island countries and territories] for the period around 1980 were collected from various sources and are presented in this comparative study. Because death registration in many Pacific countries is deficient some data have been adjusted for underenumeration; and some mortality estimates have been calculated by indirect means, using data from censuses or surveys....The less developed Melanesian malarious countries and the less developed dispersed atoll nations manifest higher mortality, and higher proportional mortality from infectious disease compared with other states. The more developed U.S.-associated states, two New Zealand-associated states, and New Caledonian Europeans all have reasonably low mortality and relatively high proportional mortality from cardiovascular disease (CVD). Females have longer life expectancy at birth than males in all countries except Vanuatu and the Solomon Islands. The phosphate-rich island of Nauru presents an atypical picture with considerable adult male mortality from diseases associated with modernisation."
Correspondence: R. Taylor, University of Sydney, Department of Public Health, Building A27, Sydney, NSW 2006, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10111 Tsai, S. P.; Wen, C. P. Mortality trends in a rapidly developing economy in Taiwan. Part 1: comparison with the U.S.A. and Japan 1976-1983. Asia-Pacific Journal of Public Health, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1989. 41-50 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng.
"The mortality experience of Taiwan was examined for two time periods (1976 and 1983) to determine the magnitude and direction of change in age-adjusted mortality and to identify deviation from the expected progress by comparison with two industrialized nations, the U.S.A. and Japan. Between 1976 and 1983 the overall mortality showed an annual average of nearly 2% decrease, mostly contributed by the marked reduction in the number of young. Significant reductions were also observed for deaths from strokes, rheumatic heart disease, ill-defined conditions, cancer of the stomach, and infectious diseases such as tuberculosis. A disturbing increase in suicide as well as accidents primarily caused by motor vehicles was noted. In general, cancer increased, to an alarming degree for environmentally implicated cancers such as lung, pancreas, nasopharynx, brain and liver in men."
Correspondence: S. P. Tsai, Tenneco Inc., Epidemiology and Health Research, PO Box 2511, Houston, TX 77252. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10112 Wimberley, Dale W. Investment dependence and alternative explanations of third world mortality: a cross-national study. American Sociological Review, Vol. 55, No. 1, Feb 1990. 75-91 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This study examines...the net impact on mortality [in developing countries] of stocks and flows of [multinational corporation] MNC investment and of debt generated by foreign aid when alternative explanations of mortality based on school enrollments, birth rates, and other factors are controlled, as well as trends in these effects over increasingly long time lags. Two age-specific measures of mortality are used: infant mortality and life expectancy at one year of age. Finally, this analysis examines the role of specific health measures introduced from developed countries, measures that may mediate the effects of investment dependence on mortality." The results suggest that "aid dependence has no effects. Multinational corporate penetration has significant harmful effects on mortality that tend to increase with time. In addition to harmful effects on infant mortality, penetration has small benefits for infant mortality via promotion of health spending. The influence of multinational corporate penetration on mortality appears to be mediated in part by inequality."
Correspondence: D. W. Wimberley, Virginia Polytechnic Institute and State University, Department of Sociology, Blacksburg, VA 24061. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.2. Prenatal and Perinatal Mortality

Studies dealing primarily with fetal and neonatal mortality, except those dealing with spontaneous abortions, which are classified under F.3. Sterility and Other Pathology , and those studies dealing with induced abortions, which are classified under F.4.5. Induced Abortion . Perinatal mortality is defined as mortality occurring between the twenty-eighth week of gestation and the seventh day of life.

56:10113 Hack, Maureen; Fanaroff, Avroy A. Outcomes of extremely-low-birth-weight infants between 1982 and 1988. New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 321, No. 24, Dec 14, 1989. 1,642-7 pp. Boston, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"We reviewed the outcomes of 98 infants delivered at our perinatal center [in Cleveland, Ohio] between July 1982 and June 1985 (period 1) whose lengths of gestation were 20 or more weeks and whose birth weights were under 750 g, and compared them with the outcomes of 129 such infants born between July 1985 and June 1988 (period 2)....[The authors find that] despite a tendency to perform more cesarean sections and active resuscitations, no improvement in the survival of babies with lengths of gestation below 25 weeks or birth weights under 750 g was observed. The probability of survival is very poor if the length of gestation is less than 24 weeks or the birth weight less than 600 g."
Correspondence: M. Hack, University Hospitals of Cleveland, Rainbow Babies and Childrens Hospital, 2101 Adelbert Road, Cleveland, OH 44106. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10114 Miller, Jane E. Is the relationship between birth intervals and perinatal mortality spurious? Evidence from Hungary and Sweden. Population Studies, Vol. 43, No. 3, Nov 1989. 479-95 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Data from Hungary and Sweden are used to investigate the extent to which prematurity confounds the relationship between length of preceding birth interval and perinatal mortality. Controlling for length of gestation removes between 65 and 90 per cent of the excess mortality associated with birth intervals of less than 18 months; however, mortality among infants who are born less than 18 months after the birth of their previous sibling is still higher than among infants born after longer intervals. These results suggest that, although short birth intervals are associated with high perinatal mortality, estimates of the risks attributable to birth-spacing are overstated, if length of gestation is not taken into account."
Correspondence: J. E. Miller, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10115 Wilkinson, Gerald S.; Nagoshi, Craig T.; Johnson, Ronald C.; Honbo, Kelly A. M. Perinatal mortality and sex ratios in Hawaii. Ethology and Sociobiology, Vol. 10, No. 6, Oct 1989. 435-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Retrospective data obtained from a sample of 926 mothers...living in Hawaii were used to evaluate two hypotheses, the selective male affliction hypothesis and the Trivers-Willard female condition hypothesis, for male-biased perinatal mortality and altered sex ratio at birth. Logit analyses using pregnancy outcome...as the dependent variable and either sex of prior sib, sex of offspring, parity, age of mother, or interval since last pregnancy as independent variables did not support either hypothesis....The results are discussed in relation to the possibility that degree of sexual dimorphism may favor male-biased perinatal mortality and explains the observed decline in sex ratio with parity."
Correspondence: G. S. Wilkinson, University of Maryland, Department of Zoology, College Park, MD 20742. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

E.3. Infant and Childhood Mortality

Studies of infant mortality under one year of age, including neonatal mortality occurring after the seventh day of life, and childhood mortality after one year of age. The subject of infanticide, deliberate or implied, is also classified under this heading.

56:10116 Aaby, Peter. Malnutrition versus overcrowding in child survival. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 351-62 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The author compares two contrasting theories concerning the impact on child mortality of nutritional status, overcrowding, and infectious diseases. Data are from community studies on measles mortality conducted in selected developing countries. The basic difference between the theories is that one is concerned with the effectiveness of specific disease intervention and the other with general programs that enhance a child's overall health.
Correspondence: P. Aaby, University of Copenhagen, Institute of Anthropology, POB 2177, 1017 Copenhagen, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10117 Aguirre, Alejandro; Hill, Allan G. Estimating childhood mortality using the preceding birth technique with data from health centers and household surveys: methodological aspects. [Estimacion de la mortalidad de la ninez mediante la tecnica del hijo previo con datos provenientes de centros de salud o de encuestas de hogares: aspectos metodologicos.] Notas de Poblacion, Vol. 16, No. 46-47, Apr-Aug 1988. 9-39 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper presents a new approach of the Previous Birth Technique aimed at measuring infant and child mortality. It deals with the collection of [data on] survivorship of the two last births....Two trials are analyzed, one carried out in Bamako, the capital city of Mali, and the other in Lima (Peru). In the latter an additional subject was tested: to ask each woman about her maternity history related to her three last births. The results of both studies confirm the robustness of the method as well as its [potential]. The collected data...clarify a variety of important problems which will allow [the design of better] demographic or health surveys aimed at measuring recent infant and child mortality levels in populations where birth and death registers are deficient."
Correspondence: A. Aguirre, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, 99 Gower Street, London WC1E 6AZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10118 Bicego, George; Augustin, Antoine; Musgrave, Stanley; Allman, James; Kelly, Patrick. Evaluation of a simplified method for estimation of early childhood mortality in small populations. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 4, Suppl. 2, 1989. 20-32 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors evaluate a simplified method of estimating infant mortality originally advanced by Brass and Macrae. "In its simplest form, the method requires only responses to a single question put to mothers at delivery regarding the survival status of her previous child. They have shown that the proportion of immediately preceding births dying before the 'index' birth date provides a good approximation of the standard life table probability of death before the second birthday." The method is applied to data from a rural population in Haiti.
For the work by Brass and Macrae, published in 1984, see 51:10161.
Correspondence: Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics, 615 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10119 Boone, Margaret S. Capital crime: black infant mortality in America. Frontiers of Anthropology, Vol. 4, ISBN 0-8039-3373-8. LC 89-4046. 1989. 252 pp. Sage Publications: Newbury Park, California/London, England. In Eng.
The author "describes, analyzes, and explains the social, cultural, historical, and present-day health factors involved in record-high rates of infant mortality, low birthweight, and compromised health among disadvantaged Black women in Washington, D.C. Using results from a National Science Foundation supported study and material from a follow-up study supported by the U.S. Bureau of the Census, this volume develops four reproductive profiles from the inner city: the teen mother, the older mother, women without men, and advantaged women in a disadvantaged environment."
Correspondence: Sage Publications, 2111 West Hillcrest Drive, Newbury Park, CA 91320. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10120 Cayemittes, Michel; Chahnazarian, Anouch. Survival and health in Haiti: the results of the Survey on Mortality, Morbidity, and Utilization of Services. [Survie et sante de l'enfant en Haiti: resultats de l'Enquete Mortalite, Morbidite et Utilisation des Services.] 1989. xv, 182 pp. Institut Haitien de l'Enfance: Petionville, Haiti; Johns Hopkins University, School of Hygiene and Public Health, Department of Population Dynamics: Baltimore, Maryland. In Fre.
Results are presented of a national survey of 4,026 households undertaken in Haiti in 1987 on infant mortality, morbidity, and the utilization of health services. Following a description of survey methodology, chapters are included on fertility, including contraception; infant and child mortality; infant morbidity; oral rehydration therapy; nutritional surveillance and breast-feeding; vaccination; and the regional use of health services.
Correspondence: Institut Haitien de l'Enfance, P.O. Box 13489 Delmas, 41 rue Borno, Petionville, Haiti. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10121 Eberstein, Isaac W. Demographic research on infant mortality. Sociological Forum, Vol. 4, No. 3, Sep 1989. 409-22 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"I present an overview of the current status and recent trends in social-demographic research on infant mortality in the United States. Following from a fundamental interest in social differentials, recent research has come to emphasize the diverse linkages between social inequality and mortality. Research increasingly uses multilevel perspectives, combining background as well as proximate variables. Coupled with the availability of new individual-level data sets linking information from diverse sources, researchers are able to give increasing attention to the study of cause of death from interdisciplinary perspectives. The analysis of racial/ethnic infant mortality differentials is an example of these trends."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 53, No. 3, Fall 1987, p. 437).
Correspondence: I. W. Eberstein, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10122 El-Rafie, M.; Hassouna, W. A.; Hirschhorn, N.; Loza, S.; Miller, P.; Nagaty, A.; Nasser, S.; Riyad, S. Effect of diarrhoeal disease control on infant and childhood mortality in Egypt: report from the National Control of Diarrheal Diseases Project. Lancet, Vol. 335, No. 8685, Feb 10, 1990. 334-8 pp. Baltimore, Maryland/London, England. In Eng.
"The effect of the National Control of Diarrheal Diseases Project, started in 1983, on infant and childhood mortality in Egypt was assessed by means of national civil registration data, nationwide cluster sample surveys of households, and local area studies. Packets of oral rehydration salts are now widely accessible; oral rehydration therapy is used correctly in most episodes of diarrhoea; most mothers continue to feed infants and children during the child's illness; and most physicians prescribe oral rehydration therapy. These changes in the management of acute diarrhoea are associated with a sharp decrease in mortality from diarrhoea, while death from other causes remains nearly constant."
Correspondence: Said Madkour, National Control of Diarrheal Diseases Project, 55 Mosaddaq Street, Dokki, Giza, Egypt. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10123 Fargues, Philippe; Khlat, Myriam. Child mortality in Beirut: six indirect estimates based on data collected at the time of a birth. Population Studies, Vol. 43, No. 3, Nov 1989. 497-513 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper, we present [six indirect techniques for estimating child mortality]...and apply them to one set of data, obtained from a survey conducted between 1981 and 1983 at the Maternity Hospital of the American University of Beirut Medical Centre [in Lebanon]....The estimates are compared, and the socio-economic correlates of childhood mortality in Beirut assessed, by using a multivariate approach."
Correspondence: P. Fargues, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10124 Garcia-Gil, Carmen; Cortes-Majo, Margarita; Garcia Nieto, Adoracion; Rosado Martin, Mercedes; Najera, Enrique. Epidemiological appraisal of the active role of women in the decline of infant mortality in Spain during the twentieth century. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 29, No. 12, 1989. 1,351-62 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors analyze the improvement of women's standard of living and its effect on infant mortality using the example of Spain from 1900 to 1979. "We have studied fertility, not only as a gauge of the biological risks which generate a certain reproductive pattern for infant mortality, but also as an indicator of the socio-cultural development of women. Similarly, and through a review of historical documents, we have analysed the role of women in birth control, their incorporation into more qualified jobs, their level of education, their growing awareness of their own situation in society, as well as pertinent legislative changes." The authors conclude that there is a causal relationship between declines in fertility and infant mortality and that changes in women's status have played a significant role in the decline of infant mortality.
Correspondence: C. Garcia-Gil, Universidad de Sevilla, Departamento de Ciencias Socio-Sanitarias, Facultad de Medicina, Avda Sanchez pizjuan s/n, 41009 Seville, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10125 Gbenyon, Kuakuvi; Locoh, Therese. Mortality differences by sex during childhood in Sub-Saharan Africa. [Differences de mortalite selon le sexe dans l'enfance en Afrique au Sud du Sahara.] INED Dossiers et Recherches, No. 13, Oct 1987. 20, [9] pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Differential mortality during childhood in Sub-Saharan Africa is analyzed. "Although women's status is suspected to be low in many societies, in most existing surveys and censuses, there are no clear differences in mortality between boys and girls except for the neo-natal period during which, as all over the world, boys have a higher risk of death. Excess female mortality in childhood appears only in a few countries--Cameroon, Liberia, Mozambique, Rwanda and the well-known case of Mauritius. Moreover some recent studies based on civil registration in metropolitan cities have stressed such excess mortality (Bamako, Brazzaville). There is some evidence that for...children [aged 1-4 years] the recent mortality decline has been more rapid for males than for females." It is concluded that the ability to pay for health care is an important determinant of child health and survival, especially in large cities, and that sex differentials do exist.
Correspondence: INED, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10126 Haaga, John G. Mechanisms for the association of maternal age, parity, and birth spacing with infant health. In: Contraceptive use and controlled fertility: health issues for women and children, edited by Allan M. Parnell. 1989. 96-139 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.; National Research Council, Committee on Population, Working Group on the Health Consequences of Contraceptive Use and Controlled Fertility: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper reviews possible biomedical mechanisms connecting maternal age, parity, and birth spacing with infant mortality and assesses their likely importance in accounting for the strength of these relationships as observed in household surveys in developing countries." The author discusses differences between high- and low-mortality countries in causes of infant death. He examines young maternal age and primiparity, older maternal age and grand multiparity, and the effects of short intervals between pregnancies on infant health and mortality.
Correspondence: J. G. Haaga, RAND Corporation, Economics and Statistics Department, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10127 Katz, Joanne; West, Keith P.; Tarwotjo, Ignatius; Sommer, Alfred. The importance of age in evaluating anthropometric indices for predicting mortality. American Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 130, No. 6, Dec 1989. 1,219-26 pp. Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
"Weights and heights were obtained on approximately 4,000 preschool-aged children in six rural villages of West Java [Indonesia] between 1977 and 1978. Deaths occurring in the ensuing 18 months were ascertained at three-month intervals. The abilities of relative weight for height and height for age to discriminate children at greatest risk of dying were compared....[The] results suggest that stunting, rather than wasting, puts younger children at greater risk of death, but among older children, wasting carries a greater relative mortality risk over an 18-month period."
Correspondence: J. Katz, Johns Hopkins University School of Medicine, Dana Center for Preventive Opthalmology, Wilmer 120, 600 North Wolfe Street, Baltimore, MD 21205. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10128 Koenig, Michael A.; Fauveau, Vincent; Wojtyniak, Bogdan. Potential reductions in infant and child mortality through immunisation programmes: evidence from Matlab, Bangladesh. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 433-48 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this paper...we examine potential mortality reductions from immunisation in rural Bangladesh, using data from the Matlab Demographic Surveillance System on both the age distribution of mortality and specific cause of death during infancy and early childhood. Estimates of potential reductions in mortality which could be achieved through EPI [Expanded Programme on Immunisation] in Bangladesh are subsequently derived."
Correspondence: M. A. Koenig, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10129 Kusin, Jane A.; Kardjati, Sri; de With, C. Infant mortality in Madura, Indonesia. Implications for action. Journal of Tropical Pediatrics, Vol. 35, No. 3, Jun 1989. 129-32 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Infant mortality by age at death and birth weight was assessed in a prospective, population-based study in Madura, East Java. Even after elimination of neonatal tetanus by vaccination during pregnancy as a major cause of death, the infant mortality rate was high, viz. 121 per 1,000 live births. The majority of live born infants died in the first 6 months of life. Birth weight was the best practical indicator of survival. The implications for Primary Health Care are discussed."
Correspondence: J. A. Kusin, Royal Tropical Institute, Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10130 Monteiro, C. A.; Pino Zuniga, H. P.; Benicio, M. H. A.; Victora, C. G. Better prospects for child survival. World Health Forum, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1989. 222-7 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"Infant and childhood mortality rates in Sao Paulo [Brazil] fell by about 50% and 70% respectively between 1973 and 1983. However, surveys in 1973-74 and 1984-85 showed no change in the prevalence of protein-energy malnutrition, nor were there marked changes in the socioeconomic characteristics of the population. Improvements in water supply and the duration of breast-feeding possibly account for a 20% decrease in the infant mortality rate. It is proposed that the markedly improved coverage of health services may have played a large role in explaining the rest of the decrease. The control of malnutrition may not always be essential for lowering infant and child mortality in developing societies."
Correspondence: C. A. Monteiro, University of Sao Paulo, School of Public Health, Department of Nutrition, Avenida Dr. Arnaldo 715, Sao Paulo 01255, Brazil. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10131 Noumbissi, Amadou. A critical review and study of the sensitivity of the Preston-Trussell indices of infant and child mortality. [Examen critique et etude de sensibilite des indices de mortalite infantile et juvenile de Preston et Trussell.] Institut de Demographie Working Paper, No. 148, ISBN 2-87085-199-5. Jun 1989. 99 pp. CIACO Editeur: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
Methods of estimating levels of infant and child mortality in countries with incomplete vital registration are reviewed. Specifically, the author uses data from the 1978 World Fertility Survey of Cameroon to evaluate the methods of estimating the covariates of infant and child mortality developed by Preston and Trussell. He concludes that the method provides a useful tool for an analysis of differential mortality at young ages.
Correspondence: CIACO Editeur, 1 Place Montesquieu, Boite 17, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10132 Palloni, Alberto; Pinto, Guido. Family planning and infant and child survival. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 363-77 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"In this paper we evaluate the magnitude of the indirect effects that breast-feeding may have on infant mortality when and if the overhaul in the reproductive regime is accompanied by a shift away from a traditional pattern of breast-feeding....To do so we design a procedure that allows us to assess both the effects of contraception and breast-feeding on the distribution of births by age of mother, parity, and length of birth interval....The core of the procedure is to distinguish the gross (reduced) effects of family planning from the net effects and to allocate estimated changes in mortality attributable to the indirect effects due to the association between breast-feeding and pace of childbearing." Data from Colombia, Ecuador, and Peru are applied to the model.
Correspondence: A. Palloni, University of Wisconsin, Center for Demography and Ecology, 4412 Social Science Building, 1180 Observatory Drive, Madison, WI 53706-1393. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10133 Rozov, A. A.; Makhlina, V. S.; Makarovskaya, N. V. Child mortality in the developing countries of Africa. [Smertnost' detei v razvivayushchikhsya stranakh Afriki.] Sovetskoe Zdravookhranenie, No. 3, 1989. 58-63 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The improvements that have occurred in infant mortality in Africa since independence are described. These are related by the authors to improved hygiene and assistance for pregnant women.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:10134 Servicio de Investigacion y Accion en Poblacion [SIAP] (La Paz, Bolivia). A study on the relations between fertility and infant mortality in maternity hospitals in the cities of La Paz, Cochabamba, and Santa Cruz, Bolivia--1987-1988. [Estudio sobre relaciones entre fecundidad y mortalidad infantil en maternidades de las ciudades de La Paz, Cochabamba y Santa Cruz, Bolivia--1987-1988.] [1989?]. 59, [11] pp. La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
Trends in infant mortality in three of Bolivia's major cities are analyzed using the Brass own-children method. Data are from six maternal health centers in the cities concerned and are for 1987 and 1988. Consideration is given to the relationship between infant mortality and fertility.
Location: New York Public Library.

56:10135 Studenikin, M. Ya. Current problems of infant mortality. [Sovremennye problemy detskoi smertnosti.] Vestnik Akademii Meditsinskikh Nauk SSSR, No. 12, 1988. 29-34 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a review of current trends in infant mortality in the USSR. The author analyzes differences by republic as well as the causes of infant mortality.
Correspondence: M. Ya. Studenikin, Institut Pediatrii AMN SSSR, Moscow, USSR. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:10136 Thornton, Patricia; Olson, Sherry; Thuy Thach, Quoc. The social dimensions of infant mortality in Montreal at the middle of the nineteenth century. [Dimensions sociales de la mortalite infantile a Montreal au milieu du XIXe siecle.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1988. 299-325 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"Categorical analysis of survival rates in a cohort of 4,000 infants born in Montreal [Canada] in 1859 points to cultural identity as a more powerful determinant than father's occupation, household rent, or characteristics of habitat and neighbourhood. Mortality of French Canadian infants (27.6%) exceeds that of Protestant and Irish Catholic infants (18.6% and 20.0% respectively), despite the miserable living conditions of Irish immigrants. Half of all deaths occur during the summer quarter. Factors which may contribute to explanation are age of weaning, differential fertility and the inadequacy of urban infrastructures under tropical conditions of North American summers."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10137 Tu, Ping. The effects of breastfeeding and birth spacing on child survival in China. Studies in Family Planning, Vol. 20, No. 6, Pt. 1, Nov-Dec 1989. 332-42 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This study analyzes the effects of breastfeeding and birth spacing on child survival, and assesses the possible impacts of changes in breastfeeding and birth spacing practices on infant and child mortality in Shanghai Municipality and Shaanxi Province, the People's Republic of China." Data are from a 1985 in-depth fertility survey conducted in the two regions.
Correspondence: P. Tu, Peking University, Population Institute, Beijing 100871, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10138 United States. Centers for Disease Control [CDC] (Atlanta, Georgia). National Infant Mortality Surveillance (NIMS), 1980. Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, Vol. 38, No. SS-3, Pub. Order No. HHS (CDC) 89-8017. Dec 1989. v, 46 pp. Atlanta, Georgia. In Eng.
This report presents data from the National Infant Mortality Surveillance (NIMS) project, which developed a national data base of linked birth and infant death certificates for the 1980 U.S. birth cohort. Data are included on neonatal, post-neonatal, and infant mortality risks for blacks, whites, and all races in 12 categories of birth weights. The results indicate that after two decades of substantial improvement, progress in reducing levels of infant mortality has slowed substantially in the 1980s, so that the United States now ranks nineteenth in infant survival among developed countries. "Even more disturbing is that essentially no progress has been made in reducing the twofold risk of infant mortality among blacks as compared with whites."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402-9235. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10139 Wakisaka, Ichiro; Sato, Masumi; Yanagihashi, Tsuguo; Tomari, Tsutomu. An aspect of declining infant and early childhood mortality rates in Kagoshima prefecture. Minzoku Eisei/Japanese Journal of Health and Human Ecology, Vol. 55, No. 2, Mar 1989. 91-9 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Trends and geographical differentials in perinatal, infant, and early child mortality are analyzed for Kagoshima prefecture, Japan, for the period 1967-1986 using official health statistics. The authors note that although death rates at all the ages considered declined consistently over the period, the decline seems to have leveled in recent years, and further declines are unlikely. The sex differential in mortality in favor of females has continued over this period.
Correspondence: I. Wakisaka, Kagoshima University, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Public Health, 21-24, 1-chome, Kourimoto, Kagoshima-shi 890, Japan. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

E.4. Mortality at Other Ages

Studies of age-specific mortality and of mortality in special groups defined by age.

56:10140 Brass, W.; Li, Bohua. Levels, trends and patterns of adult mortality in China over twenty five years. Population Research, Vol. 6, No. 1, Mar 1989. 1-14 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to investigate the reliability of [previous] adult mortality estimates [for China]...by the use of further data and methods. The most direct and straightforward approach is through the examination of survivorship from the 1964 to the 1982 Census. This has already been done effectively, for example by Coale (1984). However, the long (18 years) time span limits the extent to which the trends can be verified as opposed to the average level of mortality in the interval. The technique which will primarily be applied is the original version of the growth-balance method but with adjustments developed particularly for the data and demographic trends of China."
For the work by Ansley Coale, published in 1984, see 50:30132.
Correspondence: W. Brass, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Centre for Population Studies, Keppel Street, London, WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10141 Deeg, Dorly J. H.; van Zonneveld, Robert J.; van der Maas, Paul J.; Habbema, J. Dik F. Medical and social predictors of longevity in the elderly: total predictive value and interdependence. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 29, No. 11, 1989. 1,271-80 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors examine factors affecting longevity. "In the Dutch Longitudinal Study among the Elderly, a probability sample of 3,149 persons from the population of the Netherlands, initial ages 65-99 years, was followed from 1955 for 28 years. Vital status was determined in 1983 for 84% of the original sample. Multivariate regression models were used to predict the realized probability of dying (RPD), a measure of longevity based on actual survival time, sex and age at baseline. Predictor variables included physical, mental and social indicators of health status....Objective health (rated by the examining physician) showed the strongest relationship with the RPD....Across different regression models, bio-medical and disability variables proved to be the most stable predictors of longevity."
Correspondence: D. J. H. Deeg, Erasmus University, Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, Faculty of Medicine, POB 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10142 Espinosa Brito, Alfredo; Gonzalez Sanchez, Esteban; Santos Pena, Moises; Martinez de la Cotera, Emiliano D. Adult deaths in three Cuban provinces (1981-1982). Some factors related to the place where death occurred. [Adultos fallecidos en 3 provincias cubanas (1981-1982). Algunos factores relacionados con el lugar donde ocurrio la muerte.] Revista Cubana de Salud Publica, Vol. 15, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1989. 245-58 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"A study of 13,105 adult deaths [in Cuba] is made among people living in three provinces with different demographic and socioeconomic characteristics (Havana City, Cienfuegos, and Las Tunas). These deaths occurred between 1981 and 1982. Data were collected from the death certificates registered in the National Division for Statistics of the Ministry of Public Health. The following data was included: age, sex, province of residence, urban-rural, basic cause of death and place where death occurred....It was demonstrated that institutional deaths had an average age lower than non-institutional deaths in the three provinces. Associations between causes of death and place of death, with some regional differences, became apparent."
Correspondence: A. Espinosa Brito, Calle 37 No. 5404, Cienfuegos, Cuba. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10143 Hanada, Kyo. The mortality of centenarians in Japan. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 190, Apr 1989. 50-4 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Mortality trends among centenarians in Japan are analyzed using data from official demographic surveys taken between 1975 and 1986 and from the National Registry of People of Advanced Age. A life table of mortality over age 100 for every six months is included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10144 Moore, David E.; Hayward, Mark D. Occupational careers and mortality of elderly men. Demography, Vol. 27, No. 1, Feb 1990. 31-53 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article presents findings from an analysis of occupational differentials in mortality among a cohort of males aged 55 years and older in the United States for the period 1966-1983. Using the National Longitudinal Survey of Mature Men, we construct event histories for 3,080 respondents who reach the exact age of 55. The dynamics that characterize socioeconomic differentials in mortality are analyzed by evaluating the differential effects of occupation over the career cycle. Maximum likelihood estimates of hazard-model parameters show that the mortality of current or last occupation differs substantially from that of longest occupation, controlling for education, income, health status, and other sociodemographic factors."
Correspondence: D. E. Moore, University of Washington, Health and Population Research Center, Department of Sociology, Battelle Memorial Institute, 4000 N.E. 41st Street, Seattle, WA 98105. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.5. Life Tables

Studies that present actual life table data and all studies concerned primarily with life tables, including the appropriate methodological studies. Life table studies that are concerned with topics other than mortality are classified under the appropriate heading and cross-referenced to this heading.

56:10145 Coale, Ansley; Guo, Guang. Revised regional model life tables at very low levels of mortality. Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 4, Winter 1989. 613-43 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
Revised regional model life tables are presented that take into account the very low levels of mortality recorded globally in recent years. The revisions include a minor modification of the method used previously to "close out" the model tables at ages above 80; new tables covering ages 0 to over 100 at very high expectations of life for the West, East, and South families; and additional new tables common to the different families at still lower levels of mortality. The rationale and methods of calculation of these modifications are described, and the new model tables for males and females for the West, East, and South families are provided in an appendix.
Correspondence: A. Coale, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10146 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Life tables 1987. [Kuolleisuus- ja eloonjaamislukuja 1987/Dodlighets- och livslangdstal 1987.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1989, No. 7, Sep 7, 1989. 14 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng; Swe; Fin.
Life tables by sex are presented for Finland for the year 1987 using official data. Data are also included on life expectancy by age, sex, and province. Some retrospective data are provided.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10147 Hsieh, John J. A probabilistic approach to the construction of competing-risk life tables. Biometrical Journal, Vol. 31, No. 3, 1989. 339-57 pp. Berlin, German Democratic Republic. In Eng.
"This paper aims to identify net and partial-crude probabilities in the competing-risk life table context, by using probabilistic approaches. Five types of lifelength random variables are defined to formulate these nonidentifiable probabilities. General expressions for net and partial-crude probabilities are first derived under independent risks assumptions. Two sets of explicit formulas for estimating the net and partial-crude probabilities are then derived in terms of the identifiable overall and crude probabilities by making the additional assumption of piecewise uniform distribution of the lifelength random variables. A study of the degree to which nonidentifiability can affect the net and partial-crude probabilities in a variety of situations is developed. An example from cross-sectional studies is employed to illustrate the methodology developed."
Correspondence: J. J. Hsieh, University of Toronto, Faculty of Medicine, Department of Preventive Medicine and Biostatistics, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A8, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10148 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). The 41st abridged life tables: April 1987-March 1988. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 189, Jan 1989. 72-81 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Life tables based on official mortality data are presented for Japan for 1987-1988 by sex and by five-year age group and single year of age.
Correspondence: Institute of Population Problems, Ministry of Health and Welfare, 1-2-2 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

E.6. Differential Mortality

Studies on the ratio of mortality in different subgroups of a population, classified according to certain criteria, such as sex, social class, occupation, and marital status. Also includes studies on excess mortality and comparative mortality.

56:10149 Anderson, Barbara A.; Silver, Brian D. Patterns of cohort mortality in the Soviet population. Population and Development Review, Vol. 15, No. 3, Sep 1989. 471-501, 603-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This study uses newly published mortality data for the Soviet Union to investigate cohort effects on mortality in the Soviet population, for the whole country and by region. Both males and females born during World War II are found to have experienced elevated cohort mortality, while males who were in early adolescence during the war also experienced elevated cohort mortality, and females who were adolescents or young adults experienced somewhat elevated cohort mortality. These effects are most pronounced in the European parts of the Soviet Union, where the greatest war losses also occurred."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1989 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 55, No. 3, p. 405).
Correspondence: B. A. Anderson, University of Michigan, Population Studies Center, 1225 South University Avenue, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1070. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10150 Barker, D. J. P.; Osmond, C.; Golding, J. Height and mortality in the counties of England and Wales. Annals of Human Biology, Vol. 17, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1990. 1-6 pp. London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"Average heights of adults and children in the counties of England and Wales were examined using national samples of people born between 1920 and 1970. Although height increased over this 50-year period the differences between counties persisted. Average height in a county is closely related to its pattern of death rates, which were derived from all deaths during 1968-78. Counties with taller populations have lower mortality from chronic bronchitis, rheumatic heart disease, ischaemic heart disease and stroke, and higher mortality from three hormone-related cancers, of the breast, prostate and ovary."
Correspondence: D. J. P. Barker, University of Southampton, MRC Environmental Epidemiology Unit, Highfield, Southampton S09 5NH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10151 Bidegain Greising, Gabriel. Social inequality and expectation of life in Venezuela. [Desigualidad social y esperanza de vida en Venezuela.] Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales Documento de Trabajo, No. 34, Sep 1989. 49 pp. Universidad Catolica Andres Bello, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales: Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
The author investigates social-class differentials in mortality in Venezuela based on vital statistics for 1980-1982. Chapter 1 identifies inequalities in expectation of life at birth in individual states of the country. Chapter 2 outlines rural-urban differences and shows estimates for principal cities. Chapter 3 presents data on expectation of life at birth according to selected socioeconomic variables, including education, occupation, and income. A methodological appendix is included.
Correspondence: Universidad Catolica Andres Bello, Instituto de Investigaciones Economicas y Sociales, Urb. Montalban, La Vega, Apartado 29068, Caracas, Venezuela. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10152 Bobet, Ellen. Indian mortality. Canadian Social Trends, No. 15, Winter 1989. 11-4 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng.
Mortality rates among North American Indians in Canada are examined. Causes of death, health problems, suicide rates, and infant mortality in the Indian population are analyzed, and comparisons are made with Canada's total population. Data are from the 1986 census.
Correspondence: E. Bobet, Health and Welfare Canada, Medical Services Branch, Environmental Health Centre, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0L2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10153 Carstairs, Vera. Differentials in mortality. Health Bulletin, Vol. 46, No. 4, Jul 1988. 226-36 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
Changes and differences in mortality rates are analyzed for three adult age groups and by sex for Scotland and compared with data for selected developed countries, including England and Wales, for the period 1973-1975 to 1981-1983. For five out of the six age-sex groups, Scotland had the highest mortality for all causes of death. Furthermore, in many cases the differentials between Scotland and the other countries considered have increased over time. The author suggests that both physical and social environmental factors as well as differences in life-styles may be associated with these differentials.
Correspondence: V. Carstairs, Scottish Health Service, Information and Statistics Division, Common Services Agency, Trinity Park House, Edinburgh, Scotland. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:10154 Duijkers, Thomas J.; Kromhout, Daan; Spruit, Ingeborg P.; Doornbos, Gerda. Inter-mediating risk factors in the relation between socioeconomic status and 25-year mortality (the Zutphen Study). International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 3, Sep 1989. 658-62 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In the Zutphen Study data were collected on occupation, smoking habits, blood pressure, serum cholesterol, height and weight of 856 men [in the city of Zutphen, Netherlands] who were 40-59 years old in 1960. Between 1960 and 1985 detailed information was collected on mortality. The effect of socioeconomic status as indicated by occupation on 25-year mortality was studied in relation to cigarette smoking, systolic blood pressure, serum cholesterol and Body Mass Index. It was found that socioeconomic status was an important determinant of mortality only in the men who were 40-49 years old in 1960. The risk of all-cause mortality among small business owners and manual workers was more than twice as high as that of men in the highest social class. After adjustment for the influence of cigarette smoking and systolic blood pressure these relationships remained. It can be concluded that socioeconomic status was an independent risk factor for long-term all-cause mortality, in men aged 40-49."
Correspondence: D. Kromhout, National Institute of Public Health and Environmental Protection, Department of Epidemiology, PO Box 1, 3720BA Bilthoven, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10155 Golini, Antonio; Golini, Paolo; Lombardi, Roberto. The impact of excess male mortality on sex structure. The Italian case, 1951-1981. [Influence de la surmortalite masculine sur la structure par sexe. Le cas italien, 1951-1981.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 18, No. 1, Spring 1989. 195-210 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The purpose of this note is to analyze male excess mortality in relation to general mortality trends in a country with low levels of mortality, using Italian data for the period 1951-1981, and to examine the effect of this excess male mortality on the sex distribution of the population. Consideration is given to the apparent paradox whereby "at least during the first half of life, the sex ratio increases when excess male mortality increases. This paradox shows that the index traditionally used for measuring the disadvantage of men with regard to survival, is not the most appropriate one."
Correspondence: A. Golini, Universita degli Studi di Roma La Sapienza, Dipartimento di Scienze Demografia, Via Nomentana 41, Rome 00161, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10156 Hancioglu, Attila. Estimation of adult male mortality in Turkey by the widowhood method. Nufusbilim Dergisi/Turkish Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 11, 1989. 19-33 pp. Ankara, Turkey. In Eng. with sum. in Tur.
"In this paper, the [widowhood] method is applied to Turkish data to estimate adult male mortality. First, the method and its assumptions are briefly discussed. Secondly, the data source and its major characteristics are described and the method is applied; the resulting mortality measures estimated with the method are compared with findings from other sources, and the reliability of the results, the applicability of the method to the Turkish case, and possible biases risked with the application of the method are elaborated in the final section of the paper."
Correspondence: A. Hancioglu, Hacettepe University, Nufus Etutleri Enstitusu, Hacettepe Parki, Ankara, Turkey. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10157 Keiding, Niels; Andersen, Per K.; Frederiksen, Kirsten. Modelling excess mortality of the unemployed: choice of scale and extra-Poisson variability. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 1, 1990. 63-74 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Occupational mortality and morbidity is usually studied via standardized mortality (or morbidity) ratios, with little attention to the basic fit of the implicit underlying proportional hazards model. This paper presents a case study on unemployment and mortality, based on the complete Danish male population aged 20-64 years at the 1970 census. The effect of unemployment on the age-specific mortality rate is intermediate between additive and multiplicative and was fitted well by an additive effect on the square root of the mortality. The paper discusses and illustrates whether finer stratification or random residual variation ('frailty') is to be preferred for obtaining a statistically satisfactory fit."
Correspondence: N. Keiding, University of Copenhagen, Statistical Research Unit, Faculty of Medicine, 3 Blegdamsvej, DK-2200 Copenhagen N, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10158 Kumar, Gopalakrishna. Gender, differential mortality and development: the experience of Kerala. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 13, No. 4, Dec 1989. 517-39 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This study examines aspects of sex differentials in mortality in India. "The general question of sex bias and excess female mortality is first discussed....Subsequently the reasons for the regional contrast in sex ratios are explored....We then focus on the interesting exception to the Indian trend and attempt an explanation for the unusual sexual profile that Kerala displays....The paper ends...with an attempt to draw some tentative conclusions from the Kerala experience with an eye towards more general issues concerning women and the development process."
Correspondence: G. Kumar, Centre for Development Studies, Trivandrum, India. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10159 Marmot, M. G.; Smith, George D. Why are the Japanese living longer? British Medical Journal, Vol. 299, No. 6715, Dec 23-30, 1989. 1,547-51 pp. London, England. In Eng.
A comparative analysis of life expectancy in the United Kingdom and Japan is presented using data from official sources. Factors considered include medical care, public health services, genetic differences, nutrition, socioeconomic factors, work, culture, and social relationships. No clear explanation for the higher life expectancy in Japan for both sexes is apparent.
Correspondence: M. G. Marmot, University College and Middlesex School of Medicine, Department of Community Medicine, London WC1E 6EA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10160 McCord, Colin; Freeman, Harold P. Excess mortality in Harlem. New England Journal of Medicine, Vol. 322, No. 3, Jan 18, 1990. 173-7 pp. Boston, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"Using data from the 1980 [U.S.] census and from death certificates in 1979, 1980, and 1981, we examined mortality rates in New York City's Central Harlem health district, where 96 percent of the inhabitants are black and 41 percent live below the poverty line. For Harlem, the age-adjusted rate of mortality from all causes was the highest in New York City, more than double that of U.S. whites and 50 percent higher than that of U.S. blacks. Almost all the excess mortality was among those less than 65 years old." Consideration is given to age factors and causes of death. The authors "conclude that Harlem and probably other inner-city areas with largely black populations have extremely high mortality rates that justify special consideration analogous to that given to natural-disaster areas."
Correspondence: C. McCord, Harlem Hospital, Department of Surgery, 136th Street and Lenox Avenue, New York, NY 10037. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

56:10161 Otten, Mac W.; Teutsch, Steven M.; Williamson, David F.; Marks, James S. The effect of known risk factors on the excess mortality of black adults in the United States. JAMA: Journal of the American Medical Association, Vol. 263, No. 6, Feb 9, 1990. 845-50 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"We compared the mortality rate ratios, before and after adjustment for different risk factors, of black vs. white [U.S.] adults in the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey 1 Epidemiologic Follow-up Study. For persons 35 to 54 years old, the rate ratio of mortality for blacks vs. whites decreased from 2.3 (unadjusted) to 1.9 when adjusted simultaneously for six well-established risk factors (smoking, systolic blood pressure, cholesterol level, body-mass index, alcohol intake, and diabetes) and decreased from 1.9 to 1.4 when adjusted for the six risk factors plus family income. Thus, approximately 31% of the excess mortality can be accounted for by six well-established risk factors and a further 38% by family income. This leaves 31% unexplained."
Correspondence: M. W. Otten, Division of STD/HIV Prevention, Mailstop E02, Centers for Disease Control, Atlanta, GA 30333. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:10162 Pampel, Fred C.; Zimmer, Catherine. Female labour force activity and the sex differential in mortality: comparisons across developed nations, 1950-1980. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 5, No. 3, Dec 1989. 281-304 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In this paper, we examine the macro-level relationship between female labour force activity and the sex differential in mortality among developed nations. Discrimination, protection, and null relationship hypotheses are tested using aggregate data for 18 high income nations over seven time points from 1950 to 1980. High levels of female labour force activity--controlling for a variety of general social conditions--increase the longevity advantage women have over men. In some models the effects are immediate; in other models the effects occur after a substantial lag; but in no cases are there harmful effects for women's longevity. Also important for the differential are consumption of cigarettes and alcohol, and the level of income inequality in a society."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1987 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 53, No. 3, Fall 1987, p. 411).
Correspondence: F. C. Pampel, Florida State University, Department of Sociology, Tallahassee, FL 32306. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10163 Samuelsson, G.; Dehlin, O. Social class and social mobility--effects on survival. A study of an entire birth cohort during an 80-year life span. Zeitschrift fur Gerontologie, Vol. 22, No. 3, May-Jun 1989. 156-61 pp. Darmstadt, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The effects of social class and social mobility on mortality are examined using data for a cohort of 489 individuals born in 1902 and 1903 in Sweden who were followed up to age 80. No significant differences in mortality by social class were observed. "Concerning social mobility, when males and females were analyzed separately, those men with no mobility had a significantly lower survival rate than those with downward or upward mobility. For women there was no such difference in survival. In a multivariate survival analysis among eight social factors, sex and marital status had the greatest effect on survival between 20-80 years of age. Widows and widowers had, unexpectedly, a higher survival compared to married and never married persons."
Correspondence: G. Samuelsson, Gerontology Research Centre, Karl XII gatan 1, 222 80 Lund, Sweden. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10164 Schellekens, Jona. Mortality and socio-economic status in two eighteenth-century Dutch villages. Population Studies, Vol. 43, No. 3, Nov 1989. 391-404 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This study is an analysis of mortality levels and their patterns of change among different socio-economic groups in two eighteenth-century Dutch villages. In these two villages...there were substantial mortality differentials between farmers and agricultural labourers. Mortality differentials of this magnitude have not been found in other European villages, although they are not unheard of in cities. The differentials are probably unrelated to malnutrition, or a polluted water supply among the lower class. Relative overcrowding and poor hygiene are more probable causes. During the second half of the eighteenth century mortality levels were lower, especially among the lower class. These changes....were probably related to a diminution in the amount of military activity on land in Europe after the War of the Austrian Succession."
Correspondence: J. Schellekens, Hebrew University, Department of Demography, Mount Scopus, 91905 Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10165 Szarski, Cezary. A regional approach to the mortality of Poland's population--basic causes of death in 1984. [Umieralnosc w Polsce w 1984 roku--podstawowe przyczyny Zgonow w ujeciu regionalnym.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 1/95, 1989. 55-72 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Mortality in Poland is examined for the year 1984. Differences in mortality by geographical region, sex, and causes of death are included. Data are from official sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10166 Wing, Steve; Casper, Michele; Davis, Wayne; Hayes, Carl; Riggan, Wilson; Tyroler, H. A. Trends in the geographic inequality of cardiovascular disease mortality in the United States, 1962-1982. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 30, No. 3, 1990. 261-6 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Analyses reported here address the question of whether relative geographic inequality [of cardiovascular disease (CVD) mortality within the United States] has increased or decreased during the period of rapidly declining CVD mortality 1962-1982. Trends in geographic inequality, as measured by the weighted coefficient of variation of State Economic Area rates, are analyzed for whites and blacks by sex for 10-year age groups 35-44 to 85 and over. The average annual percent change in the coefficient of variation for each demographic group is presented for all cause mortality, all CVD, stroke and ischemic heart disease....Results suggest that factors influencing the percent decline of CVD mortality are not reaching communities of the U.S. equally. Since increases in relative inequality are strongest in the younger age groups, the pattern of inequality may be accentuated as these cohorts move into ages of higher mortality."
Correspondence: S. Wing, University of North Carolina, Department of Epidemiology, School of Public Health, Chapel Hill, NC 27514. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

E.7. Mortality by Cause

Studies of demographic relevance on causes of death. Studies of morbidity and of public health measures are included only if they relate specifically to mortality. Also included are maternal mortality and comparisons of causes.

56:10167 Bongaarts, John; Way, Peter. Geographic variation in the HIV epidemic and the mortality impact of AIDS in Africa. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 391-402 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"In the first part of this paper, we review the available statistics on the prevalence of HIV [human immunodeficiency virus] infection in different African countries and estimate the total number of infected adults in Africa. In the second section a computer simulation model is applied to project the future course of the HIV epidemic and its mortality impact in Africa."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, Center for Policy Studies, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10168 Gartner, Rosemary. The victims of homicide: a temporal and cross-national comparison. American Sociological Review, Vol. 55, No. 1, Feb 1990. 92-106 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper develops and tests a model of cross-national and temporal variation in homicide rates using sex- and age-specific victimization data from 18 developed nations for the years 1950-1980. The results indicate that the structural and cultural factors that explain homicide rates in the United States are also associated with sex- and age-specific homicide rates in other countries. Some factors, such as absolute deprivation and extent of official violence, are associated with higher risks across victim types. Others have effects that vary by the sex or age of the victim."
Correspondence: R. Gartner, University of Toronto, Faculty of Law, 78 Queen's Park, Toronto M5S 2C5, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10169 Gould, Madelyn S.; Wallenstein, Sylvan; Kleinman, Marjorie H.; O'Carroll, Patrick; Mercy, James. Suicide clusters: an examination of age-specific effects. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 80, No. 2, Feb 1990. 211-2 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The age specificity of time-space clusters of suicide was examined using [U.S.] National Center for Health Statistics data for 1978-84. Significant clustering of suicide occurred primarily among teenagers and young adults, with minimal effect beyond 24 years of age. Clustering was two to four times more common among adolescents and young adults than among other age groups."
Correspondence: M. S. Gould, Columbia University, College of Physicians and Surgeons, Division of Child Psychiatry, 722 West 168th Street, New York, NY 10032. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10170 Heathcote, C. R.; Keogh, C.; O'Neill, T. J. The changing pattern of coronary heart disease in Australia. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 4, Dec 1989. 802-7 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this paper we describe a method for constructing long series of comparable mortality statistics from published figures that are subject to periodic changes in coding practice. The case discussed in some detail is that of Australian coronary heart disease mortality 1931-1985, the coding of which has been liable to alteration on four occasions due to revisions to the procedures of the International Classification of Diseases. Reference is made to comparable work on U.S. figures and it is shown that the Australian data require relatively smaller adjustments."
Correspondence: C. R. Heathcote, Australian National University, Department of Statistics, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10171 Heilig, Gerhard K. Are there demographic consequences of AIDS in the Federal Republic of Germany? [Gibt es demographische Auswirkungen der AIDS-Epidemie in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland?] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 15, No. 3, 1989. 247-70 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The objective of this paper is to estimate the impact of the AIDS-epidemic on some demographic variables in the Federal Republic of Germany....Despite its relatively low number of cases AIDS has already changed patterns of premature mortality in the Federal Republic of Germany. Due to the young age distribution of AIDS-deaths this epidemic will soon be a major cause of premature mortality, especially in the urban centers of the Republic. Hence AIDS will have a demographic impact."
Correspondence: G. K. Heilig, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10172 India. Office of the Registrar General. Vital Statistics Division (New Delhi, India). Survey of causes of death (rural): annual report 1987. Series 3, No. 20, [1989]. 59 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
This is the twentieth in an annual series of reports presenting results from a survey of causes of death in rural areas of India. The survey, which concerns 1987 and covered 1,266 primary health centers, gathers data on patterns of causes of death for 10 major causes. The methodology of the survey is described. The data are presented by state, age, and sex.
Correspondence: Office of the Registrar General, Vital Statistics Division, Ministry of Home Affairs, New Delhi 110 066, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10173 International Epidemiological Association (Oxford, England). Trends and determinants of coronary heart disease mortality: international comparisons. International Journal of Epidemiology, Vol. 18, No. 3, Suppl. 1, 1989. 232 pp. Oxford University Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The papers in this Supplement provide information presented at a Workshop on 'Trends and Determinants of Coronary Heart Disease [CHD] Mortality. International Comparisons'. The workshop was held in Bethesda, Maryland, U.S.A., on 15-16 August 1988....The information contained in this supplement documents recent changes in lifestyles, risk factors and disease patterns, as well as changes in diagnosis, prevention and treatment." The volume is divided into seven sections. Section 1 contains papers on the WHO MONICA project. Section 2 deals with trends in CHD mortality in the United States. The third and fourth sections are concerned with CHD mortality in China and in selected developed countries and with methods used in international studies. Section 5 focuses on determinants of CHD mortality, including genetic and lifestyle factors; and the final sections review influences on CHD incidence and treatment and needs for international research.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, Walton Street, Oxford 0X2 6DP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10174 Jorde, L. B.; Pitkanen, K. J.; Mielke, J. H. Predicting smallpox epidemics: a statistical analysis of two Finnish populations. American Journal of Human Biology, Vol. 1, No. 5, 1989. 621-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Data on mortality from smallpox are analyzed using logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards models. The data are for the period 1750-1885 and concern two Finnish populations, the relatively isolated Aland Islands and the mainland parish of Kitee. The relevance of population size, migration, geographic distance, and vaccination as predictive variables of smallpox epidemics is assessed. The importance of vaccination as a predictive variable is stressed.
Correspondence: L. B. Jorde, University of Utah, School of Medicine, Department of Human Genetics, 501 Wintrobe Building, Salt Lake City, UT 84132. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10175 Lester, David. National suicide and homicide rates: correlates versus predictors. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 29, No. 11, 1989. 1,249-52 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"The present study explored correlates of national suicide and homicide rates in a sample of industrialized nations. A large set of social variables was factor-analyzed and the factors were correlated with both suicide and homicide rates and with changes in these rates. Different social variables were found to correlate with rates of suicide than with rates of homicide, and different variables correlated with current rates of personal violence than with changes in these rates."
Correspondence: D. Lester, Richard Stockton State College, Psychology Program, Pomona, NJ 08240. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10176 Levy, Claude. Traffic accidents in France and the Federal Republic of Germany. [Accidents de la circulation en France et en Allemagne federale.] Population et Societes, No. 242, Jan 1990. 1-3 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a comparative analysis of mortality from traffic accidents in France and West Germany based on data from official sources.
Correspondence: C. Levy, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10177 Mackenbach, Johan P.; Looman, Caspar W. N.; Kunst, Anton E. Geographic variation in the onset of decline of male ischemic heart disease mortality in the Netherlands. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 79, No. 12, Dec 1989. 1,621-7 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"We studied variation in the year of onset of ischemic heart disease mortality decline among regions...in the Netherlands. Using loglinear regression methods, a quadratic regression model was fitted to the observed numbers of male deaths in each region in the period 1950-84, controlling for changes in age-structure of populations....For the country as a whole, the estimated year of onset of male ischemic heart disease mortality decline is [1973]. The difference between the earliest and the latest region is almost nine years....We argue that regional variation in the timing of lifestyle changes is a more plausible explanation of these observations than regional variation in the timing of medical care improvements."
Correspondence: J. P. Mackenbach, Erasmus University, Department of Public Health and Social Medicine, P.O. Box 1738, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10178 Metropolitan Life Insurance Company (New York, New York). Mortality from leading types of accidents, 1976-77 and 1986-87. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 71, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 22-7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This study examines the distribution of accidental deaths in the United States and the variations over time in cause and in groups at highest risk. Data are from the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). The results indicate that "total accidental death rates have substantially decreased over the last 10 years for both sexes, in all age groups and for most causes."
Correspondence: Metropolitan Life Insurance Company, One Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10010-3690. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10179 Mirkov, K.; Vasilev, D.; Rachev, E.; Dikov, I.; Georgieva, V. Trends and factors in maternal mortality throughout the world. [Tendentsii i faktori na maichinata smartnost v sveta.] Akusherstvo i Ginekologiya, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1988. 1-8 pp. Sofia, Bulgaria. In Bul.
This is a brief review of global trends in maternal mortality based on data from a WHO study.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

56:10180 Powell-Griner, Eve. Characteristics of persons dying from cerebrovascular diseases: preliminary data from the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey. Advance Data from Vital and Health Statistics, No. 180, Pub. Order No. DHHS (PHS) 90-1250. Feb 8, 1990. 16 pp. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report uses preliminary data from the 1986 National Mortality Followback Survey (NMFS) to compare the characteristics of adult decedents who died from Cerebrovascular diseases...with those who died from all other causes."
Correspondence: NCHS, 3700 East-West Highway, Hyattsville, MD 20782. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10181 Puffer, Ruth R. New approaches for epidemiologic studies of mortality statistics. Bulletin of the Pan American Health Organization, Vol. 23, No. 4, 1989. 365-83 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Finding and analyzing multiple causes of death--rather than single causes--has major epidemiologic advantages. Besides helping to reveal the magnitude of the causes or morbid conditions leading to death, it also demonstrates that deaths are usually the result of several simultaneous or sequential causes. This article reviews ways that multiple cause of death data have been analyzed in order to improve our knowledge of these causes and other relevant health factors." Several examples are included from studies of multiple causes of death in Latin America and the United States among infants and subjects of all ages.
Correspondence: R. R. Puffer, PAHO, 525 23rd Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10182 Sales, Jill; Duffy, John; Plant, Martin; Peck, David. Alcohol consumption, cigarette sales and mortality in the United Kingdom: an analysis of the period 1970-1985. Drug and Alcohol Dependence, Vol. 24, No. 2, Oct 1989. 155-60 pp. Limerick, Ireland. In Eng.
"This paper examines official published statistics for various causes of death in the United Kingdom between 1970 and 1985. The variables selected were mainly those that had been linked to alcohol or cigarette use. In particular, changes in mortality due to acute myocardial infarction, cancer of trachea, bronchus and lung, cirrhosis of the liver and 'alcoholism' were found to be associated with each other. Changes in all of these were highly associated with changes in both alcohol consumption and cigarette sales. For most of the causes of death examined, correlations were higher for changes in the current year than they were for lagged data. Thus even chronic disorders related to prolonged heavy alcohol or tobacco use appear to be influenced rapidly by shifts in general levels of drinking and smoking."
Correspondence: J. Sales, University of Edinburgh, Alcohol Research Group, Department of Psychiatry, Morningside Park, Edinburgh EH10 5HF, Scotland. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10183 Smil, Vaclav. Coronary heart disease, diet, and Western mortality. Population and Development Review, Vol. 15, No. 3, Sep 1989. 399-424, 602-4 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
The author explores the current dispute in the medical and scientific communities on the link between diet and incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) in developed countries. "To appraise this important controversy I first examine in some detail both the emergence of scientific consensus on the link between diet and CHD and the dissent and counterarguments generated by that view. I then assess a variety of curiously neglected demographic findings whose appreciation should form part of this...challenge....The conclusion reached is that individual intervention rather than mass dietary modification will be a more effective strategy for further reduction of coronary mortality."
Correspondence: V. Smil, University of Manitoba, Department of Geography, Winnipeg, Manitoba R3T 2N2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10184 Speechley, Mark; Trovato, Frank. Might suicide underreporting affect hypothesis test? The case of suicide and divorce. Population Research Laboratory Discussion Paper, No. 60, Jul 1989. 10 pp. University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
"To see if underreporting in the suicide rate might lead to erroneous conclusions, two upwardly-adjusted suicide rates were computed using Canadian provincial data from 1971 and 1978: one contained all identified suicides and all deaths of undetermined origin; the other contained these plus accidental poisonings and selected motor vehicle fatalities. No findings are substantively altered when these adjusted rates are regressed in separate analyses on divorce rates and several control variables, suggesting that the observed association between rates of suicide and divorce are not likely artifacts due to suicide underreporting."
Correspondence: University of Alberta, Department of Sociology, Population Research Laboratory, Edmonton, Alberta T6G 2H4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10185 Thurmon, Theodore F.; Ursin, Susonne A.; Wiley, Kathleen R. Association of lung cancer death rates by parish with migration rate by age group. American Journal of Human Biology, Vol. 1, No. 6, 1989. 771-84 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Geographic distribution of cancer incidence, as judged from death certificates in Louisiana, shows evidence of strong epidemiological forces. Inspection of data on migration and lung cancer frequency shows them to be associated. Inmigrants account for a majority of the lung cancer deaths....Given the nature of the data and the assumptions of the analysis, there was a reasonable level of significance, suggesting that inmigration of older persons may be largely responsible for higher cancer rates in some parishes (counties) in Louisiana."
Correspondence: T. F. Thurmon, LSU School of Medicine, Department of Pediatrics, Genetics Section, Shreveport, LA 71130. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10186 Watanabe, Shaw; Arimoto, H. The number of cancer deaths and age-specific cancer mortality rates by site in Japan in 1987. Japanese Journal of Clinical Oncology, Vol. 19, No. 2, Jun 1989. 181-93 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
Official data on cancer mortality in Japan are presented for 1987. The number of deaths from malignant neoplasms in 1987 was 199,557, representing the primary cause of death for both men and women. The data are presented by five-year age group, sex, and cancer site.
Correspondence: S. Watanabe, National Cancer Center Research Institute, Epidemiology Division, 1-1 Tsukiji 5-chome, Chuo-ku, Tokyo 104, Japan. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10187 Zimicki, Susan. The relationship between fertility and maternal mortality. In: Contraceptive use and controlled fertility: health issues for women and children, edited by Allan M. Parnell. 1989. 1-47 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.; National Research Council, Committee on Population, Working Group on the Health Consequences of Contraceptive Use and Controlled Fertility: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper will review the information available about the effects of parity, age, and birth intervals on maternal mortality and morbidity [in developing countries], with particular attention to some of the common complications of pregnancy and the major causes of death....In addition to including more recently available population-based information, this paper considers in detail some of the major mechanisms through which maternal mortality occurs and how they are related to fertility." Data are from numerous population-based studies, hospital population studies, and case series carried out in various developing countries and covering the period 1975-1988.
Correspondence: S. Zimicki, University of Pennsylvania, Annenberg School of Communications and Population Studies Center, HealthCom Evaluation, Philadelphia, PA 19104. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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