Volume 56 - Number 1 - Spring 1990

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

56:10057 Biraben, Jean-Noel; Blum, Alain. Population trends in France, 1500 to 1800: comparison with other countries in the Western world. In: Referate zum deutsch-franzosischen Arbeitstreffen auf dem Gebiet der Demographie vom 21. bis 24. September 1987 in Rouen. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 62, 1989. 181-208 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
Preliminary results from a historical population survey conducted in 1980 in France in 200 villages and 49 towns are presented and compared with similar data for Norway, England, and Spain. The authors identify two major fertility periods in France: the first was from 1500 to 1580, when births increased from 700,000 to one million per year; the second was from 1580 to 1800, during which time the number of births remained stable at between 900,000 and one million per year.
Correspondence: J.-N. Biraben, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10058 Deb Roy, Rama. Glimpses on the history of Calcutta 1600-1800. Annales de Demographie Historique, 1988. 243-57 pp. Paris, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The growth of the Indian city of Calcutta from its founding up to the year 1800 is described using data from a variety of sources. The author notes that the city's population increased from about 30,000 in 1704 to around 500,000 in 1800.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10059 Dobson, Mary J. The last hiccup of the old demographic regime: population stagnation and decline in late seventeenth and early eighteenth-century south-east England. Continuity and Change, Vol. 4, No. 3, Dec 1989. 395-428 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
"The period between the mid-seventeenth and mid-eighteenth century stands out as an era of demographic decline and stagnation: a puzzling divide between two periods of substantial and rapid growth in the history of English population....This study aims to introduce a regional perspective to this demographic divide in our population history....It employs an approach which highlights geographical variations in the history of population as a way of unravelling some of the perplexities of this period of national decline and stagnation. This geographical approach intends to bridge an important gap between local studies about life and death in individual parishes and the more general demographic findings describing population trends at a national level." Sections are included on the geography of population change in the region, population movements, patterns of demographic stagnation and decline, and epidemics and disease.
Correspondence: M. J. Dobson, University of Oxford, School of Geography, University Offices, Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2JD, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10060 Dupaquier, Jacques. French population trends from 1789 to 1806. [La population francaise de 1789 a 1806.] Genealogie Magazine, No. 72, May 1989. 16-22 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reviews the demographic consequences of the Revolutionary period in France from 1789 to 1806. Separate consideration is given to mortality, nuptiality, fertility, emigration, urbanization, and changes in the geographical distribution of the population.
Correspondence: J. Dupaquier, Ecole des Hautes Etudes en Sciences Sociales, 54 boulevard Raspail, 75006 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10061 Dyson, Tim. The population history of Berar since 1881 and its potential wider significance. Indian Economic and Social History Review, Vol. 26, No. 2, Apr-Jun 1989. 167-201 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The population dynamics of the former British India province of Berar, which now forms part of Maharashtra, from 1881 to 1981 are analyzed. "The paper is divided into four main parts. In the first section we introduce census and registration-based statistics relevant to a consideration of the province's demographic history since 1881. The second section then uses these statistics as a framework within which to introduce additional data sets and to consider key substantive aspects of long-run demographic change. The paper's third section concentrates on some of the possible wider implications of the results. In our view many of the more general aspects of Berar's past demography probably applied throughout much of India. We also maintain that the material considered here may shed light on how some of the country's current demographic characteristics have been achieved. The final section of the paper summarises our main conclusions."
Correspondence: T. Dyson, University of London, London School of Economics and Political Science, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10062 Kadyrov, Sh. Kh. The population of Turkmenistan: history and actuality (questions and results of studies). [Narodonaselenie Turkmenistana: istoriya i sovremennost' (voprosy i rezul'taty izucheniya).] 1986. 119 pp. Ylym: Ashkhabad, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes distinctive features of population dynamics in Turkmenistan, USSR, during the period 1880-1980, with a focus on the connections between population factors and various historical events. Aspects considered include problems in family formation, the quality of living conditions, trends in reproductive behavior, and urbanization and the birth rate. Recommendations are provided for improving the regional effects of population policies.
Correspondence: Izdatel'stvo Ylym, Akademiya Nauk Turkmenskoi SSR, Ul. Engel'sa 6, 744000 Ashkhabad, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10063 Lazaro Ruiz, Mercedes; Gurria Garcia, Pedro A.; Brumont, Francis. The population of Rioja in the sixteenth century. [La population de la Rioja au XVIe siecle.] Annales de Demographie Historique, 1988. 221-41 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"The present study of the population of Rioja (Old Castile) [Spain] is based on several different sources, essentially population counts (seven in all for [the sixteenth] century, but of varying quality) and parish registers, which are fairly numerous after 1550. The high population density is shown, then trends are examined: both the population counts and the baptism data indicate an upward trend which stopped around 1560-1570, followed by a population decline which accelerated in the last decade. The lack of migration data and the relatively slight impact of the 1564-1567 and 1599-1600 epidemics do not enable the real causes of the growth pattern to be determined."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10064 Perez Brignoli, Hector. The demographic growth of Latin America in the nineteenth and twentieth centuries: problems, methods, and perspectives. [El crecimiento demografico de America Latina en los siglos XIX y XX: problemas, metodos y perspectivas.] Avances de Investigacion, No. 48, 1989. 15, [3], v pp. Universidad de Costa Rica, Centro de Investigaciones Historicas: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
The author examines population growth trends in Latin America in the last two centuries. He briefly characterizes the demographic transition in the region and compares it with the European transition. The inverse projection method is applied to demographic series for Argentina, Chile, Costa Rica, Cuba, and Mexico for the period 1750-1980.
Correspondence: Universidad de Costa Rica, Centro de Investigaciones Historicas, Facultad de Ciencias Sociales, San Jose 2050, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

56:10065 Ales, Milan. Population development in Czechoslovakia in 1988. [Populacni vyvoj v CSSR v roce 1988.] Demografie, Vol. 31, No. 4, 1989. 289-98 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author examines population trends in Czechoslovakia in 1988 and finds that for the second year in a row, the rate of population growth has increased slightly. This is attributed to the increase in fertility among women of reproductive age and a decline in mortality in the general population. The author also considers trends in induced abortion and the prospects for future population growth in Czechoslovakia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10066 Charoy, Xavier; Denis, Didier; Lembege, Catherine. Reflections of the population of New Caledonia: the main results of the 1989 census. [Images de la population de la Nouvelle-Caledonie: principaux resultats du recensement 1989.] INSEE Resultats: Demographie-Societe, No. 2, ISBN 2-11-065316-7. Dec 1989. 72 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France; Institut Territorial de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques: Noumea, New Caledonia. In Fre.
The main results of the 1989 census of New Caledonia are presented. In the first part, results are analyzed, with consideration given to spatial distribution and population trends, natural increase, age and sex distribution, ethnic groups, families, place of birth, nationality, migration, educational status, and knowledge of the French language. The second part contains the statistical tables.
Correspondence: INSEE, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10067 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population estimates 1986: the whole country, provinces, regions, and small administrative areas. [Vaestollisia tunnuslukuja 1986: Koko maa, laanit, seutukaava--alueet ja kunnat.] Tilastotiedotus/Statistisk Rapport, No. VA 1988:3, 1988. 52 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin.
Population estimates by sex are presented for Finland for 1988. Data are included on vital rates, including births, deaths, natural increase, and migration.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL504, 00101 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10068 Mezza Rosso, Victor. Bolivia: estimates and projections of the population and the labor force, 1970-2000. [Bolivia: estimaciones y proyecciones de la poblacion y la fuerza de trabajo, periodo 1970-2000.] 1986. 206 pp. Ministerio de Trabajo y Desarrollo Laboral: La Paz, Bolivia; Instituto Nacional de Estadistica: La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections for Bolivia are presented for the period 1970-2000 by department, age and sex, and rural or urban residence. Projections of the labor force are also included for the country as a whole and departments by sex, age, and rural or urban residence. (If soliciting document from DOCPAL, request DOCPAL 13296.00.).
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Casilla No. 6129, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Santiago, Chile.

56:10069 Proebsting, Helmut. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1988. [Eheschliessungen, Geburten und Sterbefalle 1988.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 9, Sep 1989. 590-3 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Information is presented on marriages, births, and deaths in West Germany in 1988. Comparisons are made with data from earlier years, and the future consequences of the present age structure are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

56:10070 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Global estimates and projections of population by sex and age: the 1988 revision. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/93, 1989. ix, 383 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report presents the estimated and projected sex and age distributions according to the medium, high and low variants for 1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of 300,000 and over in 1985." The data are from the eleventh round of the revision of population estimates and projections undertaken by the U.N. Secretariat. A magnetic tape and set of diskettes containing the major results are available upon request for a nominal fee.
For a related study, also published in 1989, see 55:30086.
Correspondence: U.N. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10071 Verma, Ravi B. P. Population estimates for small areas in Canada. Applied Demography, Vol. 5, No. 1, Winter 1990. 3-5 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
The author outlines population estimation techniques used by Statistics Canada. "The objectives of this paper are to (i) describe the methodology and data sources for estimating the population for census divisions (CDs) and census metropolitan areas (CMAs), and (ii) present the results of the evaluations of 1986 population estimates."
Correspondence: R. B. P. Verma, Statistics Canada, Demography Division, Ottawa, Ontario K1A OT6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10072 Zha, Ruichuan. Present situation and prospects of China's population. Population Research, Vol. 6, No. 2, Jun 1989. 33-40 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author reviews China's population dynamics and presents population projections. Implications of these projections and policy considerations are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

56:10073 Alpar, Reha. Estimation of the population structure of the Etimesgut Health District in the year 2025. [Etimesgut saglik bolgesinin 2025 yilindaki nufus yapisinin tahmin edilmesi.] Nufusbilim Dergisi/Turkish Journal of Population Studies, Vol. 11, 1989. 53-60 pp. Ankara, Turkey. In Tur. with sum. in Eng.
The author forecasts the population of the Etimesgut Health District in Turkey for the year 2025 under certain assumptions. "According to these basic assumptions [the] crude birth rate will decrease to 14 per thousand and [the] crude death rate will increase to 9.47 per thousand within 35 years....According to these results, the population pyramids of the Etimesgut Health District were drawn for different years. As it will be seen, the population structure will not be like today's developed countries' population structure until the year 2070."
Correspondence: R. Alpar, Hacettepe University, Tip Fakultesi Biyoistatistik Bilim Dali Ogretim Gorevlisi, Ankara, Turkey. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10074 Corner, I. E. Developing centralised household projections for national and sub-national areas. In: Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 91-106 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England. In Eng.
The author outlines the headship-rate method of household projection used by the Department of the Environment in England and Wales. Aspects of the method's development, its performance and some possibilities for further developments are described. "Forecast accuracy is assessed by a comparison of actual households in 1981 with a projection based on extrapolation of headship rates in 1971. Accuracy is shown to be high except in the South-East region of Britain, where the large fall in households which occurred in London during the 1970s was underpredicted...."
Correspondence: I. E. Corner, Building Research Establishment, Garston, Watford, Hertfordshire WD2 7JR, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10075 Cruijsen, Harri; Keilman, Nico. National population forecasts in industrialized countries: main findings of an international workshop. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 37, No. 11, Nov 1989. 19-23 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
The main findings are presented from a workshop on national population projections in developed countries, held in Voorburg, Netherlands, October 25-28, 1988. "The programme concentrated on four themes: general aspects of national population projections, fertility, mortality and international migration. Under the first theme, an international comparison of the forecasting process was presented, and items like accuracy, variants and monitoring were discussed. The other sessions contained cross-country overviews of actual trends, most recent assumptions and currently applied extrapolation methods. Furthermore, special attention was given to the use of time series methods and explanatory models for the extrapolation of fertility."
Correspondence: H. Cruijsen, Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, 428 Prinses Beatrixlaan, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10076 Foster, Gregory D. Global demographic trends to the year 2010: implications for U.S. security. Washington Quarterly, Vol. 12, No. 2, Spring 1989. 5-24 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
This article is condensed from a report prepared for the Commission on Integrated Long-Term Strategy. It examines how important demographic trends up to the year 2010 will be to the security interests of the United States. Separate attention is paid to trends in the United States, the Soviet Union, Eastern Europe, China, the Western Pacific, South Asia, Latin America, the Middle East and North Africa, and Sub-Saharan Africa.
Location: New York Public Library.

56:10077 Hablicsek, Laszlo; Monigl, Istvan. Expected population development in Hungary after the year 2000. [Die voraussichtliche Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Ungarn nach dem Jahre 2000.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 15, No. 2, 1989. 133-62 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
The author analyzes the population dynamics of Hungary during the last 100 years and projects population size to the year 2021. The need to develop a population policy that will lead to stabilization of population and improvement of population structure is emphasized, with primary importance given to halting the population decline.
Correspondence: L. Hablicsek, Demographic Research Institute, Central Statistical Office (CSO), Posta fio'k 78, H-1364 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10078 Kocianova, H. Socioeconomic problems of worldwide population growth after the year 2000. [K nekterym socialneekonomickym problemum populacniho vyvoje ve svete po roce 2000.] Casopis Lekaru Ceskych, Vol. 128, No. 12, Mar 17, 1989. 353-9 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The socioeconomic implications of forcasted world population trends after the year 2000 are considered. The author notes that demographic aging is likely to cause problems first in the developed world, particularly in Europe, and after 2025 in the developing world. It is suggested that the key to resolving these problems lies in increasing productivity among a declining labor force.
Correspondence: H. Kocianova, 7 tr. Polit Veznu, 111 73 Prague 1, Czechoslovakia. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

56:10079 Meade, Nigel. Forecasting with growth curves: the effect of error structure. Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 7, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1988. 235-44 pp. New York, New York/Chichester, England. In Eng.
"The main theme of this paper is an investigation into the importance of error structure as a determinant of the forecasting accuracy of the logistic model. The relationship between the variance of the disturbance term and forecasting accuracy is examined empirically. A general local logistic model is developed as a vehicle to be used in this investigation. Some brief comments are made on the assumptions about error structure, implicit or explicit, in the literature." The results suggest that "the variance of the disturbance term, when using the logistic to forecast human populations, is proportional to at least the square of population size."
Correspondence: N. Meade, Imperial College, Management School, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2BX, England. Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

56:10080 Mukerji, S. Projection of total and sub-regional population: a new technique. Demography India, Vol. 17, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1988. 124-38 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author develops a mathematical model for population projection for both total and subregional populations of developing countries. An example is presented using data from India.
Correspondence: S. Mukerji, International Institute of Population Sciences, Deonar, Bombay 400 088, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10081 Rees, Philip; Willekens, Frans. Population projection: Dutch and English multiregional methods. In: Contemporary research in population geography: a comparison of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, edited by John Stillwell and Henk J. Scholten. 1989. 19-37 pp. Kluwer Academic: Boston, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In both the Netherlands and the United Kingdom government departments responsible for the production of population projections for both the nation and subnational units have recently sought to improve those projections through the development and implementation of new multiregional models. These are models which project the population of many regions simultaneously and which include the migration flows between them in the analysis. Researchers and consultants outside of central government were asked to prepare these models....These efforts are described and compared in order to assess what has been achieved to date and what improvements could be effected. The earlier sections of the [paper] contain an assessment of the needs of users of subnational population projections and a review of the conceptual bases of multiregional models."
Correspondence: P. Rees, University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10082 Sauberer, Michael; Spitalsky, Alfred. Austrian Spatial Planning Conference population projections, 1981-2011: estimates of the Austrian Institute for Spatial Planning (OIR). [OROK-Bevolkerungsprognose, 1981-2011: Gutachten des Osterreichischen Instituts fur Raumplanung (OIR).] Osterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz [OROK] Schriftenreihe, No. 58, 1987. 189 pp. Osterreichische Raumordnungskonferenz [OROK]: Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
Regional population and labor force projections for Austria are presented for the period 1981-2011. The projections, which are based on a multiregional demographic model and 1981 census data, are given for the country as a whole, states, administrative districts, and types of districts. Four different variants are provided.
Correspondence: Osterreichischer Bundesverlag- Schulbuchzentrum, NO-Sud, Strasse 1, Object 34, A-2351 Wiener Neudorf, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10083 Smith, Stanley K.; Sincich, Terry. Stability over time in the distribution of population forecast errors. In: Advances in regional demography: information, forecasts, models, edited by P. Congdon and P. Batey. 1989. 73-90 pp. Belhaven Press: London, England. In Eng.
"In the present study we analyse the distribution of population forecast errors for U.S. states for a number of different time periods during the twentieth century. Our objectives are twofold: to determine the extent to which these distributions have remained stable over time and to evaluate the validity of using data on the distribution of past forecast errors to predict the distribution of future forecast errors." The authors conclude that "while we may never be able to forecast future populations with a high degree of accuracy, we may be able to develop relatively accurate forecasts of the distribution of errors surrounding our point forecasts. Indicating the potential range of errors surrounding population forecasts may be the most useful service the producers of population projections can provide to their users."
Correspondence: S. K. Smith, University of Florida, College of Business Administration, Gainesville, FL 32611. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10084 Wetrogan, Signe I. Projections of the population of states, by age, sex, and race: 1989 to 2010. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1053, Jan 1990. iv, 41 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents four alternative series of projections of the population of the 50 [U.S.] States and the District of Columbia by race for 1989 through 2010." In contrast to previous state projections in this series, the present report has four alternative projections for each state based on different assumptions concerning future internal migration. "The present report includes a detailed discussion on the methodology, alternative assumptions and differences among the alternative series." The projections are made using the cohort-component method.
Correspondence: U.S. Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10085 Willmann, Heidi; Hoyt, Scott. The slowdown in population growth: causes and consequences. U.S. Long-Term Review, Spring 1989. 31-8 pp. Lexington, Massachusetts. In Eng.
U.S. population trends are projected using data from the Bureau of the Census. The focus is on the economic consequences of these trends. The authors conclude that the economic impact will be relatively slight up to the year 2000. "After 2000, the changes to the economic outlook will be more significant. The aging of the population will accelerate and the pace of economic growth is likely to slow even further. More resources will be devoted to caring for the elderly, while public and private pension systems will need to draw down savings to provide for the retirement of the baby-boom generation."
Location: World Bank, Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

56:10086 Coward, John. The components of natural change: the United Kingdom. In: Contemporary research in population geography: a comparison of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, edited by John Stillwell and Henk J. Scholten. 1989. 40-52 pp. Kluwer Academic: Boston, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
Trends in the rates of natural increase in the United Kingdom are examined, with a focus on regional variations. "Within the United Kingdom geographical variations in natural change are still quite pronounced, particularly at the district level. Moreover, due to the importance of varying population age structures on crude rates...little association [is seen] between crude and age standardized patterns. Age structure is clearly responsible for explaining much of the spatial variation in the crude rates....The other major feature to note is that within the United Kingdom there are still quite important spatial differences in age standardized fertility and mortality, particularly at the district level, and the considerable degree of regional convergence over the last half century has by no means eliminated such differences....Such differences may reflect variations in family formation patterns and social class structure as well as the nature of regional variations in the [labor force] participation rates of married women."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10087 Kapoen, Loek; Keilman, Nico. The components of natural change: the Netherlands. In: Contemporary research in population geography: a comparison of the United Kingdom and the Netherlands, edited by John Stillwell and Henk J. Scholten. 1989. 52-62 pp. Kluwer Academic: Boston, Massachusetts/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
Natural increase in the Netherlands since 1970 is analyzed and projections to 2035 are made. "There has been a significant decline in natural growth in the Netherlands since 1970, due to a sharp fall in live births. Shortly after the year 2000, the number of deaths will be higher than the number of births....This is a result of the decreasing number of women in the fertile age range. Despite the expected decrease in mortality rates in nearly all age groups until 1995, the number of deaths will increase steadily because of the steady growth in the number of elderly people. The number of marriages influences the number of births and has also declined substantially since 1970." Regional variations in spatial distribution are also forecast.
Correspondence: L. Kapoen, Verkeersacademie, Stappegoorweg 201, 5022 DD Tilburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10088 Long, John F. Two hundred years of demographic change: 1790-1990. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 71, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1990. 2-11 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The changes in the U.S. population from 1790 to 1990 as recorded in the U.S. census are reviewed. Separate consideration is given to changes in race and ethnicity, age distribution, regional distribution, and urbanization.
Correspondence: J. F. Long, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Projections Branch, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10089 Rowland, Richard H. National and regional population trends in the USSR, 1979-89: preliminary results from the 1989 census. Soviet Geography, Vol. 30, No. 9, Nov 1989. 635-69 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"This article investigates national, macroregional, and economic regional population trends in the USSR during the 1979-89 intercensal period based on preliminary results from the 1989 census. The national total population growth rate during 1979-89 was roughly similar to that of 1970-79. However, the urban growth and urbanization processes slowed, while the rate of rural population change increased due chiefly to reduced rural-urban migration. Regional variations in rates of total, urban, and rural population change generally resembled those of 1970-79. Central Asia continued to exhibit the most rapid overall growth, although Siberia experienced a resurgence."
Correspondence: R. H. Rowland, California State University, Department of Geography, 5500 University Parkway, San Bernardino, CA 92407. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10090 Sallnow, John. The Soviet Far East: a report on urban and rural settlement and population change, 1966-1989. Soviet Geography, Vol. 30, No. 9, Nov 1989. 670-83 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"This article provides a general overview of trends in urban-rural population change and evolution of the settlement system in the Soviet Far East since 1966, incorporating data published in the recent national statistical yearbooks and the preliminary 1989 census report....Total population in the Soviet Far East increased from 5,435,000 in 1966 to 7,941,000 by January 12, 1989, with the share of the urban population now comprising over three-quarters of the total. Migration patterns into and out of the region are discussed and cities planned for expansion are identified."
Correspondence: J. Sallnow, Polytechnic South West, Plymouth, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

56:10091 Wang, You; Chen, Lihua. On the temporary surplus population in the elementary stage of socialism in China. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 4, Jul 1988. 11-4 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
The causes and patterns of China's surplus population are analyzed for the period 1951-1980. The authors view the surplus population as a temporary phenomenon that is advantageous to social development.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

56:10092 Yu, Yeun-chung. The prospects of population growth in China. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, New Delhi, September/septembre 20-27, 1989. Vol. 1, 1989. 43-56 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
"This paper examines population growth in China in the 1980s and beyond, using information available from the major surveys. It discusses the large fluctuation of fertility in the 1980s and the possible fertility changes in the 1990s in relation to the current programme of family planning. It further discusses the prospect of population growth from now until 2025 if alternative family planning programmes are introduced."
Correspondence: Y. Yu, United Nations, Population Division, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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