Volume 55 - Number 4 - Winter 1989

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

55:40063 Verduin, J. A. Demography of the Netherlands, 1839-1989. [Demografie van Nederland, 1839-1989.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 37, No. 10, Oct 1989. 3-33 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
This is a review of demographic trends in the Netherlands over the past 150 years. It consists of a series of short articles by different authors on topics such as population growth, population characteristics, fertility, mortality, international migration, nuptiality, households, seasonal variation in marriages and fertility, comparisons with Belgium, provincial population trends, religion, and the relationship between socioeconomic and demographic developments.
Correspondence: J. A. Verduin, Rijksuniversiteit te Utrecht, Geografisch Instituut, Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

55:40064 Congdon, Peter. An analysis of population and social change in London wards in the 1980s. Institute of British Geographers: Transactions, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1989. 478-91 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the estimation and projection of small area populations in London, [England] and considers trends in intercensal social and demographic indices which can be calculated using these estimates. Information available annually on vital statistics and electorates is combined with detailed data from the Census Small Area Statistics to derive demographic component based population estimates for London's electoral wards over five year periods. The availability of age disaggregated population estimates permits derivation of small area social indicators for intercensal years, for example, of unemployment and mortality. Trends in spatial inequality of such indicators during the 1980s are analysed and point to continuing wide differentials. A typology of population and social indicators gives an indication of the small area distribution of the recent population turnaround in inner London, and of its association with other social processes such as gentrification and ethnic concentration."
Correspondence: P. Congdon, London Research Centre, Population and Statistics Group, Parliament House, 81 Black Prince Road, London SE1 7SZ, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:40065 Findl, Peter. The demographic situation of Austria in the year 1987. [Zur demographischen Situation Osterreichs im Jahre 1987.] Demographische Informationen 1988/89, [1989]. 112-31 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
Information is presented on demographic trends in Austria during 1987. Some comparative data for earlier years are also provided. Topics covered include births, fertility rates, population reproduction, deaths, life expectancy, marriages, divorces, international migration, refugees, naturalizations, changes in population size, age structure, and the dependency burden.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40066 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Population in Israel, by marital status, sex and age, aged 15-54, 1987. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, Vol. 40, No. 7, Suppl., Jul 1989. 17-50 pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
Estimates of the Israeli population aged 15-54 are presented by marital status, age, and sex for 1987. The estimates are provided separately for the total and Jewish population and are based on the 1983 census and the Population Register up to 1987.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, Prime Minister's Office, P.O.B. 13015, Jerusalem 91130, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:40067 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1988. Population Estimates Series, No. 61, 1989. 83 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Population estimates for Japan are presented by single years of age and sex for the whole country for 1988, and by sex and five-year age group for prefectures. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40068 Kavanaugh, Paul; Lamphere, Karen. Estimating daytime population in the San Diego region. Applied Demography, Vol. 4, No. 3, Summer 1989. 7-11 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
Regional changes in residential and daytime population density for the San Diego area of California are presented for 1986 and projected for 2010. The focus is on the impact of commuting on densities in suburban communities and metropolitan areas.
Correspondence: P. Kavanaugh, San Diego Association of Governments, San Diego, CA 92101. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40069 Lo, C. P. A raster approach to population estimation using high-altitude aerial and space photographs. Remote Sensing of Environment, Vol. 27, No. 1, 1989. 59-71 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author develops a method of avoiding problems in population estimation that arise when counting dwelling units using aerial photography. "The maximum possible occurrence of dwelling units in each grid cell was determined with reference to the dwelling unit sizes and existing housing data from the census. The actual percentage of occurrence of residential buildings in each grid cell was then estimated from the photographs and translated into a population estimate. This approach was applied to the Providence area, Rhode Island...." The level of accuracy of the estimates is discussed, and the author concludes that "the raster approach permitted the application of a microcomputer-based GIS package to model and update the population estimation from high altitude aerial and space photographs."
Correspondence: C. P. Lo, University of Georgia, Department of Geography, Athens, GA 30602. Location: Princeton University Library (ST).

55:40070 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). County population estimates: July 1, 1988, 1987, and 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 88-A, Aug 1989. 45 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the total population as of July 1, 1988, revised estimates for July 1, 1987 and 1986, and components of population change, 1980-88, for 3,139 counties and equivalent areas in the United States...."
Correspondence: U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40071 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Population estimates for Puerto Rico and the outlying areas: 1980 to 1988. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1049, Oct 1989. 6 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population for July 1, 1980, to 1988 for the outlying areas of the United States. These include the Caribbean areas of Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands of the United States, and the Pacific areas of American Samoa, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands. Census counts for 1980 are also shown for each of the areas."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40072 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Rural and rural farm population: 1988. Current Population Reports, Series P-20: Population Characteristics, No. 439, Aug 1989. iv, 50 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Estimates of the rural and rural farm populations of the United States are presented for 1988 using data from the Current Population Survey. "This report presents information on race and Hispanic origin, age and sex, and labor force activities of the rural and rural farm population for 1988. The report also includes, for farm residents, fertility characteristics...and data...on marital status, household and family composition, and income and poverty."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40073 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). State population and household estimates, with age, sex, and components of change: 1981-88. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1044, Aug 1989. iv, 67 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains [U.S.] State estimates of the resident and civilian populations and of households for July 1, 1988, revised annual population and household estimates for July 1, 1981, through 1987, and components of population change for the 1980-88 period....This report also shows annual age estimates of the resident population of States, 1981-88. The age detail includes 10-year age groups, selected broad age groups, and median age, by sex."
Correspondence: Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40074 Wegman, Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1987. Pediatrics, Vol. 82, No. 6, Dec 1988. 817-27 pp. Elk Grove Village, Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of trends in vital rates in the United States, based on official data from the NCHS Monthly Vital Statistics Report. Global trends are also reviewed using data from U.N. sources.
For a previous review for 1986, published in 1987, see 54:30081.
Correspondence: M. E. Wegman, University of Michigan, School of Public Health, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

55:40075 Ahlburg, Dennis A. Demographic pressures on health, education, and employment resources in the South Pacific region. Pacific Studies, Vol. 12, No. 2, Mar 1989. 23-31 pp. Laie, Hawaii. In Eng.
"Population projections by age and sex are presented for Fiji, Papua New Guinea, Western Samoa, the Solomon Islands, Tonga, and Vanuatu. These projections are used to generate projections of the school-age population and the potential labor force. Based on these population projections the nations under study are predicted to experience an increase of between 30 and 100 percent in demand for infant and child health services, school places, and jobs over the next twenty years. The success of each nation in meeting this challenge will be instrumental in its economic and social development."
Correspondence: D. H. Ahlburg, University of Minnesota, Center for Population Analysis and Policy, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:40076 Akkerman, Abraham. Household and population projections for local government districts of Scotland, 1986-2021. ISBN 1-55033-004-7. LC 88-154797. Jan 1988. 117 pp. DemoSystems: Edmonton, Canada. In Eng.
Population and household projections are presented for the 56 local government districts of Scotland. The projections are presented by five-year age group for five-year intervals up to 2021. Data are from official sources, including the 1981 census.
Correspondence: DemoSystems, 1405 Macdonald Place, 9925 Jasper Avenue, Edmonton, Alberta T5J 2X4, Canada. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

55:40077 Bourgeois-Pichat, Jean. From the 20th to the 21st century: Europe and its population after the year 2000. Population. English Selection, Vol. 44, No. 1, Sep 1989. 57-90 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The author projects three scenarios of world population growth through the twenty-first century, each based on different assumptions concerning the future course of mortality and fertility and analyzed separately for developed and developing countries.
This is a translation of the French article published in 1988 and cited in 54:20106.
Correspondence: J. Bourgeois-Pichat, CICRED, 27 rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40078 Bouvier, Leon F.; Briggs, Vernon M. The population and labor force of New York: 1990 to 2050. 1988. iii, 87 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Probable future trends in population and the labor force in New York State to the year 2050 are analyzed. Chapters are included on ethnic composition, age distribution, and education, as well as on the city of New York and the New York labor market.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, Circulation Department, Box 96152, Washington, D.C. 20090-6152. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40079 De Beer, Joop. Predictability of demographic variables in the short run. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 4, No. 4, Jul 1989. 283-96 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author explores methods of population forecasting by applying three univariate time series methods "to Dutch data on births, deaths, marriages, immigrants, and emigrants. The variability of prediction errors between different periods is examined. The possibility that univariate predictions can be improved by using quarterly or monthly data instead of annual data is tested."
Correspondence: J. De Beer, Netherlands Central Bureau of Statistics, Department for Population Statistics, P.O. Box 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40080 Huth, Mary J. Population prospects for Sub-Saharan Africa: determinants, consequences and policy. Journal of Contemporary African Studies, Vol. 5, No. 1-2, Apr-Oct 1986. 167-81 pp. Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
Population projections for nine Sub-Saharan African countries (excluding southern Africa) are reviewed for the period to the year 2020. Consideration is given to the determinants of fertility and to the consequences of rapid population growth. Suggestions for population policies that will resolve population-related development problems are discussed.
Correspondence: M. J. Huth, University of Dayton, Department of Sociology, Dayton, OH 45469. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:40081 Kuijsten, Anton. A graphic representation of projection accuracy. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 5, No. 2, Oct 1989. 145-72 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author examines "the problem of measuring projection accuracy. Experience with applying the accuracy measure 'quality of prediction', as proposed by Keyfitz, leads the author to a critical evaluation and elaboration of this accuracy measure. Time series of prediction quality values may show a remarkable temporal instability, partly depending on the chosen bench mark, which seriously hinders interpretation. This interpretation problem may be solved by an easily applicable graphical solution, a convenient short-circuit device to assess a projection's accuracy without restrictions as to size of population or length of projection period." The concepts are illustrated with data used for population forecasts for the Netherlands during the 1970s.
For the articles by Nathan Keyfitz, published in 1972 and 1981, see 38:3009 and 48:10134.
Correspondence: A. Kuijsten, University of Amsterdam, Department of Physical Planning and Demography, Jodenbreestraat 23, 1011 NH Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40082 Labat, Jean-Claude; Dekneudt, Joel. Projections of the resident foreign population in metropolitan France. [Projection de la population etrangere residant en France metropolitaine.] Archives et Documents, No. 166, ISBN 2-11-064926-7. LC 87-147661. Jun 1986. 41, [30] pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Projections are presented of the resident foreign-born population of France by age, sex, and country of origin. The data concern estimates for 1975 and 1982 and projections for 1989 and 1996. Data are from official sources, including the 1982 census.
Correspondence: INSEE, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris, France. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

55:40083 Lin, Changshan; Sun, Ping. China's policy of population control: some comments. Population Review, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1989. 56-62 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
The authors project China's population from 1995 to 2055 based on China's projected population for the year 1990 and using several values for the total fertility rate. Various alternative scenarios are presented and population policy implications are discussed.
Correspondence: C. Lin, Peking University, Department of Biology, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40084 Menthonnex, Jacques. Some reflections on the demographic future of Switzerland, in light of the forthcoming vote on restricting immigration. [Quelques reflections sur l'avenir demographique de la Suisse, en marge des prochaines votations sur la "limitation de l'immigration"] Revue Economique et Sociale, Vol. 46, No. 3, Sep 1988. 159-66 pp. Dorigny, Switzerland. In Fre.
Alternative population projections for Switzerland up to the year 2075 are provided. The focus is on the demographic implications of a proposal before the Swiss electorate to ensure that the number of immigrants in any one year never exceeds the number of emigrants, and to limit immigrants over the next 15 years to two-thirds of the number of foreigners leaving Switzerland during the previous year.
Correspondence: J. Menthonnex, Universite de Lausanne, Batiment du Rectorat et de l'Administration Centrale, 1015 Lausanne, Switzerland. Location: University of Pennsylvania Library, Philadelphia, PA.

55:40085 Nakosteen, Robert A. Detailed population projections for small areas: the Massachusetts experience. Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Vol. 23, No. 3, 1989. 125-38 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This study reports on the methodology and results of the Massachusetts experience in developing detailed population projections. Combining conventional with some not-so-conventional techniques, population projections are developed for 351 geographic units, as well as 108 demographic categories. The projections are currently in use in a large variety of public and private planning activities."
Correspondence: R. A. Nakosteen, University of Massachusetts, School of Management, Amherst, MA 01003. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:40086 Netherlands Economic Institute (Rotterdam, Netherlands). Long-term regional demographic developments up to the beginning of the next century and regional policy. ISBN 92-825-8620-0. 1988. xiv, 127, 52 pp. European Communities, Commission: Luxembourg. In Eng.
Population projections up to 2010 for 161 regions in the 12 countries of the European Community are developed using the DEMETER model. Particular attention is paid to probable developments in the labor force and to their implications for regional policy.
Correspondence: Office for Official Publications of the European Communities, 2 rue Mercier, L-2985 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:40087 Pflaumer, Peter. Population forecasts with the Box-Jenkins approach. [Bevolkerungsprognosen mit dem Box-Jenkins-Verfahren.] In: 10 Jahre Fachhochschule Kempten, die Hochschule im Allgau. Wissenschaftliche Arbeiten aus den Fachbereichen. Dec 1988. 11-6 pp. Forderkreis fur die Fachhochschule Kempten (Allgau): Kempten, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The use of the Box-Jenkins approach for forecasting the population of the United States to the year 2080 is discussed. The forecasts are based on data for 1900-1980. It is shown that no major difference exists between the Box-Jenkins approach and parabolic trend curves when making long-range predictions. An investigation of forecasting accuracy indicates that the Box-Jenkins method produces population forecasts that are at least as reliable as those done with more traditional demographic methods.
Correspondence: P. Pflaumer, Herzogweg 12, D-7033 Herrenberg, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40088 Philippines. National Census and Statistics Office (Manila, Philippines); Philippines. Inter-Agency Committee on Population and Vital Statistics (Manila, Philippines). Revised population projections for the Philippines and its regions, 1980-2030. [1983?]. 345 pp. Manila, Philippines. In Eng.
Population projections to the year 2030 for the Philippines are presented by region using data from the 1980 census. Included are six alternative projections that are based on different assumptions concerning fertility and mortality trends.
Correspondence: National Census and Statistics Office, P.O. Box 779, Sta. Mesa, Manila 2606, Philippines. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40089 Rajendran, S.; Dey, K. S.; Swain, S. K.; Rele, J. R. District level population projection of Orissa, West Bengal and Goa, Daman and Diu, 1981-2001. Occasional Paper, No. 6 of 1988, [1988]. iv, 37 pp. Office of the Registrar General, Demography Division: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
Population projections for the period 1981-2001 in India are presented by district for West Bengal, Orissa, and Goa, Daman, and Diu by sex, rural or urban residence, and age group.
Correspondence: Office of the Registrar General, Demography Division, Ministry of Home Affairs, 2/A Mansingh Road, New Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40090 Reunion des Directeurs d'Instituts et Centres Universitaires de Demographie (Paris, France); France. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED] (Paris, France); France. Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique [CNRS] (Paris, France). Eighth National Demographic Conference, Grenoble, May 5-7, 1987: population projections. Conference proceedings, Volume 2. [VIIIe Colloque National de Demographie, Grenoble, 5,6,7 mai 1987: les projections demographiques. Actes du colloque, Tome II.] INED Travaux et Documents Cahier, No. 122, ISBN 2-7332-0122-1. 1988. vii, 260 pp. Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is the second volume of proceedings of the Eighth National Demographic Conference, held in Grenoble, France, in May 1987. It contains a summary of the discussions that took place at the various sessions as well as a selection of the papers presented. The subject of the conference was population projections. The geographical focus of the 14 papers included here is on France, with one paper devoted to Belgium. The papers are primarily concerned with methodological aspects of population projection and with the projection of specific subpopulations.
For Volume 1, published in 1987, see 54:10128.
Correspondence: Presses Universitaires de France, Departement des Revues, 14 avenue du Bois-de-l'Epine, B.P. 90, 91003 Evry Cedex, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40091 Sociaal-Economische Raad [SER]. Werkgroep Demografie (The Hague, Netherlands). Socioeconomic aspects of population trends. [Sociaal-economische aspecten van demografische ontwikkelingen.] SER Publikatie, No. 22, ISBN 90-6587-301-5. LC 88-187504. Nov 1987. 102 pp. The Hague, Netherlands. In Dut.
The report reviews population projections for the Netherlands to the year 2035 and outlines the implications for economic, social, and cultural life in the country. Particular attention is given to the impact of population trends on the health and social welfare system.
Correspondence: SER, Bezuidenhoutseweg 60, NL-2594 AW The Hague, Netherlands. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

55:40092 Swanson, David A.; Vaidya, Kanhaiya; Yehya, Riad; Bennett, Barry; Prevost, Ron. Impact of census error adjustments on state population projections: the case of Ohio. Ohio Journal of Science, Vol. 89, No. 1, Mar 1989. 26-32 pp. Columbus, Ohio. In Eng.
National undercount adjustment factors from the 1970 and 1980 U.S. censuses are used to prepare population projections for Ohio, which are in turn compared with unadjusted projections. "The findings suggest that decisions concerning adjustment factors have varying effects on short-term, long-term, and strategic forecasting. These effects are particularly salient for selected age-groups and the impact on state government budget decisions typically associated with these age-groups. We recommend that the effects of alternative adjustment possibilities be examined by state demographic centers and budget offices."
Correspondence: D. A. Swanson, Pacific Lutheran University, Department of Sociology, Tacoma, WA 98447. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:40093 Tu, Edward; Chen, Kuanjeng. The effects of fertility adjustment and international migration on the future population of Taiwan. Journal of Social Sciences and Philosophy, Vol. 1, No. 1, Nov 1988. 77-98 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Chi. with sum. in Eng.
"Based on the theory of stable population, this paper explores the possible effects of fertility adjustment and international migration on the future population [of Taiwan]." Population replacement levels, age structure, and fertility levels are included in the discussion. "It is suggested that to lessen the [impact of] population aging and the socioeconomic problems associated, either...replacement fertility or the emigration of [the] elderly should be encouraged."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40094 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Projection methods for integrating population variables into development planning. Volume 1: methods for comprehensive planning. Module one: conceptual issues and methods for preparing demographic projections. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/90, 1989. xxi, 255 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This is the first part of a proposed two-volume manual being developed by the United Nations for use by development planners in making demographic projections. "The manual will consist of two volumes, the first of which will be on methods relevant to comprehensive planning and the second on techniques for sectoral planning. Each volume will be composed of several modules, which will be published sequentially. The first volume will consist of three modules, of which this is the first. This module deals with conceptual issues and methods for making demographic projections." Details are included on the cohort component method for making population projections and the headship rate method for making household projections.
Correspondence: United Nations, Department of International Economic and Social Affairs, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

55:40095 Ascolani, Augusto. Natural increase and migration in the province of Rome: an analysis of 35 years of development (1951-1986). [Dinamica naturale e dinamica migratoria in provincia di Roma: analisi di un trentacinquennio di sviluppo (1951-1986).] Genus, Vol. 44, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1988. 83-118 pp. Rome, Italy. In Ita. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Demographic trends in the province of Rome, Italy, are analyzed for the period 1951-1986. Special consideration is given to the effects of natural increase and migration on population growth and structure among municipalities within the province. The author presents "an adaptation of the so-called 'shift and share' analysis to the case of population development; this analysis is usually employed in the study of differences in the regional development of industrial employment. The results...indicate that different evolution patterns exist in the province...studied."
Correspondence: A. Ascolani, Universita degli Studi di Trento, Istituto di Statistica e Ricerca Operativa, Via Belenzani 12, 38100 Trento, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40096 Chandrasekhar, S. Alaska's population--a century of growth: 1880-1980. Population Review, Vol. 33, No. 1-2, Jan-Dec 1989. 11-28 pp. La Jolla, California. In Eng.
An overview of Alaska's population growth from 1880-1890 is presented, beginning with an analysis of the first Alaskan census in 1880. The author then analyzes each decade from 1900 to the present according to historical events that precipitated population changes. Data are presented for each decennial census period on population growth by sex ratio and ethnic group.
Correspondence: S. Chandrasekhar, P.O. Box 8093, La Jolla, CA 92038. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40097 Chang, Xinxia. An analysis of population growth during the Seventh Five-Year Plan period. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 6, Nov 29, 1987. 36-9 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
Population trends in China during the period of the Seventh Five-Year Plan (from 1986 to 1990) are analyzed. It is noted that because of the high fertility rates prevalent during the 1960s, an increase in the birth rate following 1986 was to be expected. The author considers the cumulative effect of this change in fertility, the trend toward earlier marriage, and the increase in internal, primarily rural-urban, migration. Some possible measures to control population growth in these circumstances are enumerated.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40098 Demeny, Paul. World population growth and prospects. Population Council Research Division Working Paper, No. 4, 1989. 44 pp. Population Council, Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper presents a brief outline of demographic history in the modern era. The discussion, using standard sources...for numerical estimates of the evolution of the population of the world and its major geographic areas, is divided into two periods: 1700 to 1950 and 1950 to 1985. For each of these periods, first, overall changes in population size and rates of growth are described. Second, using the notion of demographic transition as a frame of reference, the proximate demographic factors underlying population growth are discussed. A closing section offers comments on likely future demographic developments."
Correspondence: Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:40099 Soto Carmona, Alvaro. Demographic change: Spain, 1860-1930. [El cambio demografico: Espana, 1860-1930.] Revista Internacional de Sociologia, Vol. 45, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1987. 683-712 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
Demographic trends in Spain from 1860 to 1930 are analyzed using data from official sources. The author notes that, although the birth and death rates declined, the population continued to grow over the period. The impact of large-scale emigration on population characteristics and spatial distribution is discussed.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

Copyright © 1989-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.