Volume 55 - Number 3 - Fall 1989

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

55:30084 Dokoupil, Lumir. Population of the industrial region of Ostrava up to the census of 1869. [Obyvatelstvo Ostravske prumyslove oblasti do scitani 1869.] Spisy Pedagogicke Fakulty v Ostrave/Papers of the Pedagogical Faculty in Ostrava, No. 57, 1986. 132 pp. Statni Pedagogicke Nakladatelstvi: Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Ger; Rus.
Population dynamics in the Ostrava region of what is now Czechoslovakia from the 1760s to 1869 are analyzed. It is noted that this period was one of early industrialization, due to the exploitation of the region's coal resources. The study shows the importance of in-migration to industrial centers, the existence of regional differences in fertility, and the growth of an urban proletariat.
Correspondence: Statni Pedagogicke Nakladatelstvi, Ostrovni 30, 11302 Prague 1, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30085 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). A century of population growth: from the first census of the United States to the twelfth, 1790-1900. ISBN 0-8063-0332-8. LC 67-25405. 1989. 303 pp. Genealogical Publishing: Baltimore, Maryland. In Eng.
This is a reprint of a volume originally published in 1909, which presents analyses of data from the first 12 censuses of the United States. The major topics covered include the population prior to 1790; the distribution of the population in the various states and territories, 1790 and after; the population in the counties and subdivisions; the white and black population; sex and age of the population; the family in 1790; distribution of surnames in 1790; nationalities of the heads of families; nationalities of the foreign-born population at different times between 1790 and 1900; and interstate migration, involving an analysis of population by place of residence and birth.
Correspondence: Genealogical Publishing, 1001 North Calvert Street, Baltimore, MD 21202. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

55:30086 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). World population prospects, 1988. Population Studies, No. 106; ST/ESA/SER.A/106, Pub. Order No. E.88.XIII.7. ISBN 92-1-151172-0. 1989. xii, 579 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Population estimates and projections up to the year 2025 are presented for the world, its more-developed and less-developed regions, 7 major areas, 22 regions, and 210 countries and areas. Data are from the eleventh round of the global demographic estimates and projections undertaken by the U.N. Secretariat. The estimates and projections are provided for each quinquennial year or period from 1950-2025. Four variants of the projections are included, based on four alternative hypotheses concerning fertility. A description of the methods, data, assumptions, and major findings is included in the first two chapters.
Correspondence: Department of International Economic and Social Affiars, United Nations, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

55:30087 Biswas, Suddhendu; Ebraheem, Nather A. Method of stochastic prediction of population estimates based on Kendall's birth and death process. International Journal of Systems Science, Vol. 20, No. 2, 1989. 323-9 pp. Basingstoke, England. In Eng.
"An attempt has been made to incorporate density and time-dependent birth and death rates into the generalized birth and death process given by Kendall (1948). The probability generating function of the process has also been investigated. A simple method of estimating the parameters of the process has been illustrated in the text. The applicability of the method for predicting the population of India, starting from the several deterministic projection figures given for any base year, is also discussed in the text."
Correspondence: S. Biswas, Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007, India. Location: Princeton University Library (ST).

55:30088 China (Taiwan). Executive Yuan. Council for Economic Planning and Development. Manpower Planning Department (Taipei, Taiwan). Projections of the population of the Taiwan area, Republic of China, 1986-2011. Jan 1988. iv, 68 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng; Chi.
Population projections are provided for Taiwan up to the year 2011 using the mid-year 1986 population as a base. High, medium, and low projections are included. The projections include age distributions by three broad age groups.
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

55:30089 del Hoyo Bernat, Juan; Garcia Ferrer, Antonio. An analysis and forecast of the Spanish population (1910-2000). [Analisis y prediccion de la poblacion espanola (1910-2000).] Coleccion Estudios, No. 5, ISBN 84-404-2686-1. 1988. 308 pp. Fundacion de Estudios de Economia Aplicada [FEDEA]: Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The primary objective of this work is to estimate the probable development of Spain's population by age for the period 1980-2000, with particular reference to developments in the labor force. The relationship between economic and population growth is first considered. Next, alternative methods for making population projections are considered. The authors then examine population trends in Spain from 1900 to 1980 in order to establish a framework for the forecasts that are presented up to the year 2000. Data are from official sources.
Correspondence: FEDEA, Jorge Juan 46, Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30090 Finland. Tilastokeskus (Helsinki, Finland). Population projection by municipalities, 1988-2010. [Vaestoennuste kunnittain, 1988-2010/Befolkningsprognos kommunvis, 1988-2010.] Vaesto/Befolkning/Population 1989, No. 3, ISBN 951-47-2763-0. 1989. 128 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Fin; Swe. with sum. in Eng.
Two alternative population projections are presented for Finland up the year 2010, one including and one excluding migration. The projections are given for the whole country, municipalities, provinces, and regional planning areas and by single year of age and sex for provinces.
Correspondence: Tilastokeskus, PL 504, 00101, Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30091 Matthiessen, Poul C. Society, the aging population--fertility trends and the field of education. [Samfundet, der aeldes--fodselsudviklingen og uddannelsessektoren.] Uddannelse, Vol. 21, No. 9, Nov 1988. 495-504 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Dan.
The author describes demographic changes in Denmark for the period 1988-2020, with a focus on the consequences these changes will have in the field of education. He discusses declining fertility, changing attitudes, increased age of the working population, new demands on the workforce from expanding industry, and the need for ongoing training and education. Projections are based on official data for 1988.
Correspondence: P. C. Matthiessen, Department of Demography, Copenhagen University, Frue Plads, 1168 Copenhagen K, Denmark. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30092 McNown, Robert; Rogers, Andrei. Forecasting mortality: a parameterized time series approach. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-88-10, Nov 1988. 43 pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper outlines a forecasting strategy that involves the integration of...[several] traditionally independent approaches to demographic forecasting: time series methods, demographic accounting, and explanatory models....It demonstrates the feasibility and accuracy of the forecasting methodology and indicates how one can extend this approach to forecasts of mortality by cause. It describes mathematically the age- and sex-specific structure of mortality, and the evolution of this structure over time, through the estimation of parameterized mortality schedules. A major component of this descriptive analysis is the fitting of parameterized mortality schedules to historical data, providing a structure to the data, permitting a relatively concise representation of mortality by age and sex, and enabling one to compare the structure of mortality at different points in time." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30093 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population projections for the Netherlands, 1988-2050. [Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1988-2050.] 1989. 69 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population projections for the Netherlands up to 2050 are presented, along with a description of the methodology employed to prepare them. The projections are presented by sex and marital status for each year up to 1995 and then for 10-year intervals from the year 2000.
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270 AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30094 Pandjaitan, Sahala. A review of population projections and the family planning program in Indonesia 1980-2000 (by the new component method). Second edition. Part 1. Technical Report Series Monograph, No. 52A, 1987. v, 20 pp. National Family Planning Coordinating Board, Center for Information and Documentation: Jakarta, Indonesia. In Eng.
These are projections of the Indonesian population up to the year 2000, produced using the component projection method with data from the 1985 Intercensal Survey (SUPAS). This second edition is the same as the first but with errors corrected. The projections include eligible couples; family planning users; birth, fertility, and gross reproduction rates; child-woman ratio; death and infant mortality rates; and dependency ratio.
This was translated from the Indonesian by Charles Lerman.
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

55:30095 Puerto Rico. Junta de Planificacion. Area de Planificacion Economica y Social. Negociado de Analisis Social y Programacion de Recursos (San Juan, Puerto Rico). Population projections by age, sex, and municipality: Puerto Rico 1980-2005. [Proyecciones de poblacion por edad, sexo y municipio: Puerto Rico 1980-2005.] Jun 1986. v, 96, 7 pp. San Juan, Puerto Rico. In Spa.
Population projections for the period 1980-2005 are presented for Puerto Rico by age, sex, and municipality. The projections are based on data from the 1980 census.
Correspondence: Junta de Planificacion, Division de Presupuesto y Finanzas, Centro Gubernamental Minillas, Edificio Norte, Piso 12, Apartado 41119, Santurce, Puerto Rico 00942-9985. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30096 Rogers, Andrei; Woodward, Jennifer. Multiregional projections of the U.S. population: 1980-2080. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-88-5, Jun 1988. 56 pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper reports our current progress in developing a detailed multiregional population projection model that will simultaneously forecast the populations of the 50 U.S. states and the District of Columbia. A preliminary constant-coefficient projection has been carried out, but it ignores international migration....[Since] data on international migration are inadequate and inaccurate...our efforts have turned to improving the quality of such data by means of indirect estimation...." Comparisons with other published projections are also included.
Correspondence: Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30097 Rogers, Andrei. Parameterized multistate forecasting models of population dynamics: a time series approach. Population Program Working Paper, No. WP-88-8, Sep 1988. 46, [22] pp. University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program: Boulder, Colorado. In Eng.
"This paper reports on the progress of efforts over the past several years to develop a population forecasting process that emphasizes the use of transparent multistate population projection models which rely on parameterized model schedules for their inputs....Time series models are used to project the evolution of the principal parameters of such schedules, and the consequent age-specific rates are then used to drive the population forecasting models forward over time....The parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information and express it in a language and a set of variables that are more readily understood by the users of the forecasts; and they make feasible a disaggregated focus on demographic change....To demonstrate the time series forecasting methodology...a historical time series of one component of change--mortality--is analyzed and forecasted into the future." Data are from the United States for the period 1900-1983.
Correspondence: Population Program, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, Boulder, CO 80309. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30098 Sehgal, Jag M. An introduction to techniques of population and labour force projections. Background Papers for Training in Population, Human Resources and Development Planning, No. 4, ISBN 92-2-105623-6. 1986. vi, 78 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"The present paper outlines various techniques for population and labour force projections, their applications and the data requirements. Methods for projecting at subnational levels are also covered, including rural and urban areas." The author also describes an IBM-compatible microcomputer-based module for making such projections that is available from the Employment Planning and Population Branch of ILO in Geneva.
Correspondence: ILO, Route des Morillons, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (IR).

55:30099 Sutton, G. F.; Su, T. T. Accuracy and acceptance as competing issues in population projections in local areas. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 388-92 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"This paper explores some alternative allocation methods of projecting population for small areas, differences among these alternatives in levels of ex post predictive accuracy (using the method of 'historical projection'), and some consideration of the relationship of 'accuracy' to acceptability."
Correspondence: G. F. Sutton, MISER, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, MA 01003. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30100 Wetrogan, Signe I. Projections of the population of states by age. Statistical Bulletin, Vol. 70, No. 3, Jul-Sep 1989. 3-10 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The projected size and regional distribution of the population of the United States up to the year 2000 is reviewed based on official data.
Correspondence: S. I. Wetrogan, Population Projections Branch, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30101 Willekens, F. J.; van Poppel, F. W. A.; Keilman, N. W.; Eichperger, C. L.; Drewe, P. MUDEA forecasts of the population of COROP areas and the four major cities. [MUDEA-prognoses van de bevolking van de COROP gebieden en de vier grote steden.] Dec 1988. 78 pp. Rijksplanologische Dienst, Sociaal-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek: The Hague, Netherlands; Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Dut.
This report describes and presents results from MUDEA-prognoses, a model for projecting population in the Netherlands. The model takes into account regional differences in mortality, fertility, and international and internal migration. The projections are given for each region and major city for five-year intervals from 1990 to 2015.
Correspondence: Rijksplanologische Dienst, Sociaal-Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek, Willem Witsenplein 6, 2596 BK The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

55:30102 Avramov, Dragana. Demographic development in South European countries: an overview. Demografska Sveska CDI, No. 8, [1987?]. 21 pp. University of Belgrade, Institute of Social Sciences, Demographic Research Centre: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng.
Demographic trends in the southern European countries of Greece, Portugal, Spain, and Yugoslavia and in Bulgaria are analyzed for the period 1950-1984. Factors considered include population size and growth, natural increase, birth rates and fertility, population age structure, marriage patterns and nuptiality, death rates and mortality, life expectancy, and international migration. Differences among countries are noted. Data are from U.N. population estimates and projections as assessed in 1984.
Correspondence: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Belgrade, Narodnog fronta 45, Postanski fah 927, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30103 Avramov, Dragana. Population development in Southern Europe: an overview. Demografska Sveska CDI, No. 9, [1986?]. 34 pp. University of Belgrade, Institute of Social Sciences, Demographic Research Centre: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Eng.
This is an overview of population development from 1950 to 1985 in Albania, Cyprus, Greece, Malta, Portugal, Spain, Turkey, and Yugoslavia. This group of southern European countries is distinguished demographically from western Europe by higher rates of natural increase, fertility, and mortality and by a younger population. Demographic trends of southern Europe indicate a transition toward the western European model. Other factors considered include economic development, women's labor force participation, educational status, population size and growth, life expectancy, urbanization, rural-urban migration, international migration, and return migration. Differences among countries are noted. Data are from U.N. population estimates and projections as assessed in 1984.
Correspondence: Demographic Research Centre, Institute of Social Sciences, University of Belgrade, Narodnog fronta 45, Postanski fah 927, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30104 Bouvier, Leon F.; Simcox, David. Population change in Meso-America: the tip of the demographic iceberg. Population and Environment, Vol. 10, No. 4, Summer 1989. 206-20 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper examines the demographic situation in Mexico and Central America (Meso-America) and looks at the momentum for growth implied by recent population shifts. Despite successes in reducing fertility levels in many Meso-American countries, the dramatic declines in mortality among infants and children have given rise to a 'death dearth' that is contributing to a new 'baby boom' in these countries....The impacts of such population growth on education, the economy and migration are considered....The anticipated inability of country economies to provide jobs for the thousands of young adults entering the labor force in future years could result in significant increases in the number seeking to migrate in a northerly direction....The need for a more unified regional approach to some of the social and economic problems facing these nations is pointed out as is the need for a more rational immigration policy on the part of the United States in light of the potential increase in immigration in future years."
Correspondence: L. F. Bouvier, Department of Sociology, Old Dominion University, Norfolk, VA 23529. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30105 Fix, Alan G. Semai Senoi fertility and population dynamics: two-census method. American Journal of Human Biology, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 463-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The fertility and parameters of population growth of the Semai Senoi of Malaysia are studied by using a two-census method based on nonstable population theory....Compared with an earlier description of the pre-1969 Semai population, fertility has increased markedly leading to a nearly threefold increase in the annual growth rate." Data are from two censuses conducted among seven Semai settlements in 1969 and 1987.
Correspondence: A. G. Fix, Department of Anthropology, University of California, Riverside, CA 92521. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30106 Gill, Mehar S. Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81. Population Geography, Vol. 9, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1987. 62-72 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
Trends in population growth in rural Punjab, India, for the years 1971-1981 are analyzed. This decade exhibits the lowest growth rate for a rural area in the post-Independence period. "The growth rate was characterized by wide differentials with respect to the scheduled and non-scheduled caste components of population, different religious communities, and various [geographic] regions."
Correspondence: M. S. Gill, Department of Geography, Punjabi University, Patiala 147 002, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30107 Keyfitz, Nathan. The demographic discontinuity of the 1940s. IIASA Working Paper, No. WP-87-92, Sep 1987. 27 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
A method for estimating the expansion of the world's population since the 1940s is offered. The author asserts that "nothing beyond data on age distributions at five year intervals from 1950 onwards is needed to estimate intercohort increases with small and measurable error. A check on the process is to proceed backwards, and apply the calculated average intercohort increases to reconstruct the original age distributions. Intercohort increase is a net amount that includes some decrease of mortality, especially infant mortality, and some increase of fertility. The technique used provides new information concerning the onset of the so-called population explosion. For the world as a whole that onset was especially sudden because of the coincidence of the postwar baby boom in developed countries and the fall in mortality due to inoculation and antibiotics in the less developed." Data are presented for continents and countries.
Correspondence: IIASA, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30108 Livada, Svetozar. A contribution to the analysis of population reproduction. [Prilog analizi reprodukcije stanovnistva.] Sociologija Sela, Vol. 24, No. 91-94, 1986. 55-62 pp. Zagreb, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author critically analyzes the population decrease in Yugoslavia, which he attributes to a lack of demographic research and of appropriate social and population policies in the country. Interdisciplinary study and planning for Yugoslavia's future are stressed as means of yielding solutions to the demographic impact of population decline.
Correspondence: S. Livada, Faculty of Philosophy, University of Zagreb, Trg Marsala Tita 14, POB 815, 41000 Zagreb, Yugoslavia. Location: Columbia University Library, New York, NY.

55:30109 Nejasmic, Ivica. Natural population change in the Croation Socialist Republic according to type of residential settlement. [Prirodno kretanje stanovnistva SR Hrvatske prema tipu naselja boravka.] Sociologija Sela, Vol. 24, No. 91-94, 1986. 13-30 pp. Zagreb, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Demographic characteristics of urban and rural populations in Croatia, Yugoslavia, are compared, with a focus on trends in the fertility rate, death rate, and natural increase during the period 1963-1984. Population decrease is the current trend, with projections to the year 2000 indicating a negative population growth rate for Croatia.
Correspondence: I. Nejasmic, Statistical Office of Croatia, Zagreb, Yugoslavia. Location: Columbia University Library, New York, NY.

55:30110 Oweiss, I. M. Economic analysis of population growth in the Islamic world with special reference to Egypt. Population Sciences, Vol. 8, 1988. 59-68 pp. Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Population growth in predominantly Islamic countries is explored, with a focus on Egypt. The author finds that "if its current rate of increase continues...Egypt's population will increase by an average of one and a half million a year requiring food, housing, education, health services, and other needs." The case is made for the immediate implementation of an effective family planning program.
Correspondence: I. M. Oweiss, Georgetown University, Department of Economics, Washington, D.C. 20057. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30111 Palloni, Alberto; Kephart, George; Millman, Sara. The sensitivity of the natural rate of increase to changing patterns of breastfeeding and contraception. In: American Statistical Association, 1987 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1987]. 509-14 pp. American Statistical Association: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"In this paper, we estimate the parameters of a model for assessing the potential magnitude of offsetting effects of changes in contraception and breastfeeding on the ultimate rate of natural increase. We use data from the World Fertility Survey for Ecuador and Peru, two Latin American countries with the highest fertility and mortality levels in the continent. In Section II we introduce a simple but quite general model to represent the relations between fertility, infant mortality and policy variables. In Section III we outline the procedures used for the estimation of some of the parameters of the model and propose an algorithm to calculate total fertility rates and infant mortality rates that are consistent with those parameters. Finally, in Section IV we examine the results obtained for Ecuador and Peru."
Correspondence: A. Palloni, Center for Demography and Ecology, University of Wisconsin, Madison, WI 53706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:30112 Starsinic, Donald E.; Forstall, Richard L. Patterns of metropolitan area and county population growth: 1980-1987. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1039, Jun 1989. v, 137 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains population estimates for July 1, 1987, revised estimates for July 1, 1986, and components of population change from 1980 to 1987 for individual metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) and their component counties....The report also contains census counts for April 1, 1980, annual summary estimates since 1980 for the metropolitan and nonmetropolitan population by State, a discussion of trends since 1980, and comparisons with the 1970's and 1960's. It also shows 1986 population estimates for MSA central cities. Summaries for the United States, regions, divisions, and States are presented for the 1987 population inside and outside metropolitan areas and for the 1986 population inside and outside central cities. Selected tables also include data for groupings of metropolitan areas, such as the Northeastern Megalopolis, for cities of 100,000 and over, and for counties."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1989-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.