Volume 55 - Number 2 - Summer 1989

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

55:20097 Bruk, S. I.; Kabuzan, V. M. The dynamics and ethnic composition of the population of Russia in the era of imperialism (from the end of the 19th century to 1917). Soviet Geography, Vol. 30, No. 2, Feb 1989. 130-54 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"The authors critically survey tsarist censuses before the October Revolution and Soviet works on historical demography, and they re-estimate population numbers, natural and mechanical increase, and internal and external migration between 1897 and 1917, as well as changes in ethnic composition."
This is a translation of the Russian article in Istoriya SSSR (Moscow, USSR), No. 3, 1980, pp. 74-93 (see Population Index, 47:2067).
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:20098 Burnley, Ian. The population geography of Australia: trends and prospects. Geoforum, Vol. 19, No. 3, 1988. 263-76 pp. Elmsford, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
Past and present population trends in Australia since the beginning of European settlement in 1788 are reviewed. Separate consideration is given to urbanization, immigration, internal migration, mortality, and demographic aging.
Correspondence: I. Burnley, School of Geography, University of New South Wales, P.O. Box 1, Kensington NSW 2033, Australia. Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

55:20099 de Jong, A. H.; Prins, C. J. M. Demographic review of the Netherlands in the nineteenth century. [Demografie van Nederland in de negentiende eeuw.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 37, No. 4, Apr 1989. 16-26 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population trends in the Netherlands in the nineteenth century are reviewed. The authors note that the population grew from 2.1 to 5.1 million between 1795 and 1899, primarily due to natural increase. The regional differences in rates of growth observed are related to changing socioeconomic conditions. A growth in emigration over the course of the century is also noted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20100 Patterson, K. David. Epidemics, famines, and population in the Cape Verde Islands, 1580-1900. International Journal of African Historical Studies, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1988. 291-313 pp. Boston, Massachusetts. In Eng.
Population dynamics of the Cape Verde Islands from the sixteenth century to 1900 are analyzed. The major famines and epidemics that occurred over this period are identified and described, and their demographic impact assessed. An attempt is also made to evaluate the efforts of the responsible colonial power, Portugal, to cope with the results of these periodic crises. Data are from published sources.
Correspondence: K. D. Patterson, University of North Carolina, Charlotte, NC 28223. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

55:20101 Ales, Milan. Population development of Czechoslovakia in 1987. [Populacni vyvoj v CSSR v roce 1987.] Demografie, Vol. 30, No. 4, 1988. 289-98 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Demographic trends in Czechoslovakia in 1987 are reviewed. Data are provided separately for the two constituent republics on natural increase, marriage and divorce, induced abortion, mortality, morbidity, life expectancy, and infant and neonatal mortality. The demographic impact of the new law on induced abortion adopted on January 1, 1987 is considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20102 de Beer, J. Demographic estimates for 1988. [Demografische ramingen voor 1988.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 37, No. 1, Jan 1989. 14-20 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Demographic statistics for the Netherlands are presented for the year 1988. Data are included on population size and growth, fertility and mortality rates, migration, and life expectancy by sex. A decrease in population growth is attributed mainly to a decrease in migration to the Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20103 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1987. Population Estimates Series, No. 60, [1988]. 86 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Official population estimates are presented for Japan for 1987 by age and sex, by prefecture and sex, and by five-year age group and sex for prefectures.
For a previous report in this series, presenting estimates for 1986, see 54:20091.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20104 Jozwiak, Janina. Problems concerning the accuracy of population projections. [Problem oceny dokladnosci projekcji demograficznych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 2/92, 1988. 59-74 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Issues concerning the accuracy of population estimates are explored. The author proposes a method of using past errors in projections to improve the accuracy of current estimates of population size and age composition. The method is illustrated using 1985 data for the female population of Poland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20105 Kovacevic, Miladin; Gacesa, Ljubica. Principal results from a model of the actual, stationary, and stable population in 1985. [Osnovni podaci o realnom, stacionarnom i stabilnom modelu stanovnistva u 1985. godini.] Studije, Analize i Prikazi, No. 122, 1988. 23 pp. Savezni Zavod za Statistiku: Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
A model of the population of Yugoslavia in 1985 is developed using official data. The data are presented separately for Yugoslavia as a whole, its constituent republics and autonomous provinces, and by age-group and sex. The data are also provided for the hypothetical stationary and stable population in 1985.
Correspondence: Savezni Zavod za Statistiku, Kneza Milosa 20, P.O. Box 203, Belgrade, Yugoslavia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20106 Sadie, J. L. A reconstruction and projection of demographic movements in the RSA and TBVC countries. Research Report/Navorsingsverslag, No. 148, ISBN 0-908408-91-9. 1988. ix, 100 pp. University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng.
An attempt is made to develop population estimates and projections for the four major population groups in South Africa from 1936 to 2005 using official data. The data concern the Republic of South Africa and the independent black homelands of Transkei, Bophuthatswana, Venda, and Ciskei. The estimates and projections are presented for whites, blacks, Asians, and Coloureds by age-group and sex by five-year intervals. Data are also included on abbreviated life tables and are presented separately for the South African-born and foreign-born black populations.
Correspondence: University of South Africa, Bureau of Market Research, Box 392, Pretoria 0001, South Africa. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20107 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). County population estimates: July 1, 1987, and 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-26: Local Population Estimates, No. 87-A, Sep 1988. 27 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the total population as of July 1, 1987, and revised estimates for July 1, 1986, for 3,138 counties and equivalent areas in the United States...." 1980 census data for county populations are also included.
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20108 Wurzberger, Paul; Wedel, Edgar. First results of the population census, 1987. [Erste Ergebnisse der Volkszahlung 1987.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 12, Dec 1988. 829-36 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Preliminary results are presented from the 1987 population census of the Federal Republic of Germany. Information is included on changes in population size by state since 1970, the aging of the population, increases in the number of foreigners, changes in religious affiliation, labor force participation, and housing.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

55:20109 Grebille, Luc. The population of Reunion in the year 2000: the young, today...the adults of tomorrow. [Population reunionnaise en l'an 2000: les jeunes, d'aujourd'hui...les adultes de demain.] Economie de la Reunion, No. 34, Mar-Apr 1988. 2-7 pp. Sainte Clothilde, Reunion. In Fre.
Population projections for Reunion are presented up to the year 2000. Consideration is given to projected changes in the age distribution.
Location: Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

55:20110 Kuijsten, A. C. The future population of the Netherlands. [Demografische toekomstbeelden van Nederland.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Dec 1988. 97-130 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"In this article a recently developed method of probabilistic population forecasting is applied to the Netherlands. The method is used in order to generate 10,000 simulated population developments over the period 1985-2050, based upon combined fertility and mortality assumptions according to subjectively based pre-defined probability distributions. The resulting output-distributions of total population size, five-year rate of natural growth and percentage aged population are presented and discussed. In conclusion, two out of these 10,000 simulated population developments are elaborated within a possible socioeconomic context."
Correspondence: A. C. Kuijsten, Jodenbreestraat 23, 1011 NH Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20111 Larrivee, Daniel. A model for projecting a firm's manpower. [Presentation d'un modele de projection de main-d'oeuvre pour l'entreprise.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 17, No. 2, Autumn 1988. 233-46 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"Manpower projection models, adapted to an organizational context, may help in forecasting the consequences of a firm's manpower planning in terms of mobility of personnel, and, in this way, may help in determining the future size and structure of manpower. Various applications may be derived from this projection exercise, including, for instance, determination of the impact of varying the size and structure of a personnel pool on total labour costs."
Correspondence: D. Larrivee, Division de la Demographie, Statistics Canada, Ottawa, Ontario K1A 0T6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20112 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Projections of the Luxembourg population, 1987-2030. [Projections de la population Luxembourgeoise 1987-2030.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 34, No. 7, 1988. 259-78 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
Population projections are presented for Luxembourg up to the year 2030. The projections are presented separately for Luxembourgers and foreigners, and for six alternative assumptions concerning trends in the relevant demographic variables.
Correspondence: STATEC, BP 304, 2013 Luxembourg. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20113 Milovidov, A. On the experience of projecting the family composition of the population of the USSR. [Opyt razrabotki prognoza semeinoi struktury naseleniya SSSR.] Vestnik Statistiki, No. 11, 1988. 39-44 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The joint efforts in the USSR by the Central Planning Commission and the State Statistical Commission to develop projections of family characteristics of the Soviet population are described. The projections, based on official data for the rural and urban populations in 1987, are for the years 1991, 1996, 2001, and 2006.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20114 Myers, James T.; Puchala, Donald J. Some demographic constraints on mainland Chinese economic modernization. Issues and Studies, Vol. 24, No. 10, Oct 1988. 116-45 pp. Taipei, Taiwan. In Eng.
Probable demographic trends in China following the year 2000 are considered, and their consequences are assessed. The relationship between current demographic trends and the country's efforts to modernize its economy are reviewed, with consideration given to land and food supply, health care, and housing. The authors also examine the efficient use of human resources in the modernization process. They conclude that China's population will be much larger than expected by either the government or most outside observers and that as a consequence, the Chinese government will have severe problems to solve.
Correspondence: J. T. Myers, Department of Government and International Studies, University of South Carolina, Columbia, SC 29208. Location: Joint Bank-Fund Library, Washington, D.C.

55:20115 Salazar, Julia; Setas, Fernando. Population projections of the country by province for the period 1970-1995. [Projeccao da populacao do pais por provincias para o periodo 1970/95.] Boletim Demografico, No. 4, Nov 1987. 21 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Unidade de Analise Demografica: Luanda, Angola. In Por.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Angola from 1970 to 1995 for provinces and for the urban population of provinces. Data are from various sources, including the census carried out in some provinces in 1983 and 1984.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Unidade de Analise Demografica, Caixa Postal 1215, Luanda, Angola. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20116 Srb, V. Projection of the population in Czechoslovakia to the year 2010 and the economic consequences. [Projekce obyvatelstva CSSR do roku 2010 a ekonomicke dusledky.] Ceskoslovenska Pediatrie, Vol. 43, No. 4, Apr 1988. 239-42 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze.
A projection of the population of Czechoslovakia up to the year 2010 is presented, with emphasis on changes in the age distribution and in the available labor force.
Correspondence: V. Srb, U Krizku 8, 140 00 Prague 4-Nusle, Czechoslovakia. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

55:20117 Yashin, Anatoli I.; Manton, Kenneth G.; Stallard, Eric. The propagation of uncertainty in human mortality processes operating in stochastic environments. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 35, No. 2, Apr 1989. 119-41 pp. Duluth, Minnesota. In Eng.
"This paper presents a model describing how the uncertainty due to influential exogenous processes combines with stochasticity intrinsic to physiological aging processes and propagates through time to generate uncertainty about the future physiological state of the population....The model implies that a major component of uncertainty in forecasts of the physiological characteristics of a closed cohort is due to differential rates of survival associated with different realizations of the external process. This suggests that the limits to forecasting may be different in physiological systems subject to systematic mortality than in physical systems such as weather where the concepts of closed cohorts and of mortality selection have no simple analog."
Correspondence: K. G. Manton, 2117 Campus Drive, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

55:20118 Holzer, Jerzy Z.; Roszkiewicz, Malgorzata; Okolski, Marek; Witkowski, Janusz. Studies on the determinants of population reproduction. [Studia nad determinantami reprodukcji ludnosci.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 275, 1988. 90 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This monograph contains four separate papers by different authors on current population reproduction trends in Poland. The papers were presented at a conference held in Serock, near Warsaw, November 23-25, 1988. The first paper, by Roszkiewicz, reviews some modern theories concerning the determinants of fertility. The second, by Okolski, examines mortality theories. The third, by Witkowski, analyzes the impact of migration on population dynamics, particularly on fertility. The fourth, by Holzer, discusses the effect of changes in the age structure on population reproduction. An unannotated bibliography of 160 works published during the period 1976-1988 in Poland on these topics is also included.
Correspondence: Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Al. Niepodlegosci 162, 02-554 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:20119 Peters, Gary. Growth in California's nonmetropolitan counties since 1980. Sociology and Social Research, Vol. 73, No. 3, Apr 1989. 144-8 pp. Los Angeles, California. In Eng.
"This study focuses on population growth in nonmetropolitan counties in California since 1980 in an attempt to ascertain what recent demographic trends there are and to what other factors they may be related." Data are from official state sources.
Correspondence: G. Peters, California State University, 1250 Bellflower Boulevard, Long Beach, CA 90840. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

Copyright © 1989-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.