Volume 55 - Number 1 - Spring 1989

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

55:10730 Bergstrom, Theodore; Lam, David. Recovering event histories by cubic spline interpolation. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 327-55, 397 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"If event history data are recorded in discrete intervals of time, errors are introduced when the data are converted from the unit in which they were recorded, such as date, to another unit such as age or duration. The problem is illustrated by the inconsistent age at marriage schedules published by two recent U.S. censuses. This paper develops a general method for treating problems of this type using cubic spline interpolation. The method is used to adjust U.S. age at marriage schedules, explaining a substantial part of the discrepancy in the 1960 and 1970 censuses."
Correspondence: T. Bergstrom, Department of Economics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10731 Hynes, M.; Jackson, R. W. Demographics in demographic-economic models: a note on the basic activity-commodity framework. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 20, No. 11, Nov 1988. 1,531-45 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The authors present a critique of an early basic formulation for the development of demographic-economic models by M. Madden and P. W. J. Batey in 1980. They assert that more attention needs to be paid to the demographic components of these models and that "distinctions between household types must be treated more adequately, and mechanisms for changes in household type must be articulated and refined." A reply by M. Madden (pp. 1,537-42) is included, as well as a response by the authors (pp. 1,543-5).
Correspondence: M. Hynes, Department of Geography, Ohio State University, Columbus, OH 43210-1361. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

55:10732 Inaba, Hisashi. On the parameter estimation problems in the multiregional demographic growth model. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 187, Jul 1988. 29-45 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"In this paper, we critically prove the formulas of Ledent-Rogers-Willekens....Our procedure does not depend on multi-regional life table technique but on direct discretization of the continuous-time model. Here our main purpose is not to provide new results but to clear the conditions under which these methods for estimating the parameters can be applied. Finally, we give another method of calculation of parameters, which makes it possible to do a consistent disaggregated projection when we have already had an aggregated population projection."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10733 Klingberg, Lars. Bartlett-type correction terms for tests in intensity regression models. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 48, ISBN 91-7820-035-0. Nov 1988. 40, 6 pp. University of Stockholm, Section of Demography: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
This paper is concerned with appropriate correction terms for tests in intensity regression models. The focus is on their application to the analysis of life history data in Sweden, and particularly to the analysis of data on fertility. "The study indicates that the Bartlett corrected test tends to be too conservative, and that the use of parameter estimates instead of the true parameter values in the correction formula makes the test even more conservative....We discuss the choice of degrees of freedom for likelihood ratio tests for data sets with practically empty cells. For these cases, we suggest a very careful use of a chi-square statistic with a decreased number of degrees of freedom."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10734 Kucera, Tomas. Quotients, rates and disturbing events in demography. Acta Universitatis Carolinae: Geographica, Vol. 21, No. 2, 1986. 87-98 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Eng. with sum. in Cze.
Using a cohort analysis of migration and mortality as an example, the author argues for a refining of quotients and rates in demographic analysis. A new formula is presented for improving estimations of such phenomena in future populations.
Correspondence: T. Kucera, Czechoslovak Academy of Sciences, Institute of Geography, Mendlovo nam. 1, 662 82 Brno, Czechoslovakia. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:10735 Rundell, William. Determining the birth function for an age structured population. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 4, 1989. 377-95, 397 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper deals with an inverse problem in age-structured population dynamics, namely the recovery of the unknown birth function from the additional or overposed data consisting of the total population over a time interval equal to the maximum life span of the species. Conditions on the data are given to guarantee the existence and uniqueness of a solution, and the question of continuous dependence of the birth function on the data is addressed. Some numerical simulations are presented to indicate that one can in fact use the methods of the paper to reconstruct the birth function."
Correspondence: W. Rundell, Department of Mathematics, Texas A & M University, College Station, TX 77843. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10736 Schoen, Robert. Practical uses of multistate population models. Annual Review of Sociology, Vol. 14, 1988. 341-61 pp. Palo Alto, California. In Eng.
"The article provides a nontechnical description of multistate population models, useful analytical tools that can reflect changes over time in the characteristics of a closed group of persons. The multistate life table literature is reviewed, emphasizing applications of the models to studies of marital status, family and household status, interregional migration, and labor force participation and concluding with a discussion of the relationship between multistate and event history models."
Correspondence: R. Schoen, Department of Sociology, University of Illinois, Urbana, IL 61801. Location: Princeton University Library (SSRC).

55:10737 Wachter, Kenneth W. Age group growth rates and population momentum. Population Studies, Vol. 42, No. 3, Nov 1988. 487-501 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author challenges an assertion by Samuel Preston that "the average of the period age-group growth rates of a population averaged up to the mean generation length is a close approximation to the intrinsic rate of natural increase. This note shows that this claim is not true in general and considers what conditions make it true in special cases. These arguments lead to a reconsideration of population momentum, in particular to a study of the existence of a growth-free initial segment of the age pyramid of a population in transition to stationarity." A reply by Preston is included (pp. 495-501).
For the article by Preston, published in 1986, see 53:10792.
Correspondence: K. W. Wachter, Demography and Statistics, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10738 Wachter, Kenneth W. Elusive cycles: are there dynamically possible Lee-Easterlin models for U.S. births? Sloan-Berkeley Working Paper in Population Studies, No. 9, Oct 1988. 63 pp. University of California, Institute of International Studies: Berkeley, California. In Eng.
"The performance of formal demographic feedback models like Ronald Lee's provide a test of whether theories of endogenous fertility adjustment like Richard Easterlin's can explain the cyclic swings in U.S. and other births that they were put forward to explain. This paper shows how the specification of a demographic feed-back model determines its ability to sustain cycles of a given period and amplitude observed in data. Only a few of the many versions of Easterlin-style theories imply formal models which do prove capable of matching U.S. targets, and then only by narrow margins. The general methods presented here are suitable for a broad investigation of the possible role of age-specific feedback in the diversity of more and less cyclic patterns in birth series in the developed world."
Correspondence: Sloan-Berkeley Working Group, Institute of International Studies, c/o Graduate Group in Demography, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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