Volume 55 - Number 1 - Spring 1989

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

No citations in this issue.

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

55:10633 Ahlburg, Dennis A. Is population growth a deterrent to development in the South Pacific? Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 5, No. 1, May 1988. 46-57 pp. Carlton South, Australia. In Eng.
"Some have argued that population growth deters development, while others claim that population growth either aids development or has no significant effect on development. In a sample of South Pacific nations, population growth and size were found to be unrelated to economic development, defined as GDP per capita. However, when indices of quality of life or social development such as mortality, health services and education were used, population growth and size were found to be negatively related to these indices. If these 'quality of life' indices are valued by nations, an argument may exist for policy support for family planning."
Correspondence: D. Ahlburg, Industrial Relations Center, University of Minnesota, 271 19th Avenue S., Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10634 Aleksandrov, Yu. G. Agrarian overpopulation in Eastern countries. [Agrarnoe perenaselenie v stranakh vostoka.] 1988. 167 pp. Nauka: Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
This is a theoretical study of the problem of overpopulation in Asian countries, with a focus on the relationship between population growth and economic development in the region. The first chapter examines the forces of production, the socioeconomic basis, and forms of overpopulation in pre-colonial times. In the second chapter, the impact of colonialism is assessed; the main cause of rural overpopulation is seen to be the conversion of the region's economy into a peripheral one for the capitalist heartland in more developed Western countries. The third chapter considers more recent shifts in the development of the labor force in the context of commodity supplies and capitalist production and its impact on overpopulation. The author concludes that the primary cause of overpopulation is not high rates of population growth, but rather the continuing bias of the system of production toward the need of the capitalist heartland in the developed world.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:10635 Bardhan, Pranab. Demographic effects on agricultural proletarianization: the evidence from India. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 175-83 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter puts together some scattered evidence on the socio-economic and demographic factors [in India] that impinge on agricultural proletarianization and focuses on the relative importance of demographic factors in contrast to the others, noting their varying importance at different levels of disaggregation of data."
Correspondence: P. Bardhan, Department of Economics, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10636 Bloom, David E.; Freeman, Richard B. Economic development and the timing and components of population growth. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, No. 1, 1988. 57-81 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries from 1965 to 1985. Our results indicate that developing countries were able to shift their labor force from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors, and to increase productivity within those sectors, despite the rapid growth of their populations. We also find that, at given rates of population growth, income growth is related to the time path of population growth and that population growth due to high birth and death rates is associated with slower income growth than population growth due to relatively low birth and death rates. Hence, the timing and components of population growth are important elements in the process of economic development."
Correspondence: D. E. Bloom, Department of Economics, Columbia University, New York, NY 10027. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10637 Burney, Nadeem A. Workers' remittances from the Middle East and their effect on Pakistan's economy. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 26, No. 4, Winter 1987. 745-63 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
"This paper makes an attempt to analyse the impact of remittances on the Pakistani economy, in particular, on broad economic indicators [such] as GNP growth, saving, and balance of payments (BOP), from 1969-70 to 1985-86. Section II estimates the contribution of the remittances, from the Middle East, to the growth in the Gross National Product (GNP), over different sub-periods. In Section III, an analysis of the relationship between national/domestic savings and remittances is given. Section IV discusses the impact of remittances on the balance of payments position of Pakistan. Finally, the main findings are summarized in Section V." Comments by Meekal A. Ahmad are included (pp. 762-3).
Correspondence: N. A. Burney, Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10638 Cain, Mead; McNicoll, Geoffrey. Population growth and agrarian outcomes. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 101-17 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The case is made that most current models of the relationship between population growth and agricultural development present a misleading picture. The authors present an argument for more research on agrarian outcomes, defined in terms of the rate of growth of per capita product, to include consideration of the permanence of fundamental societal institutions throughout the process of agricultural change in the face of population growth. The institutions studied are family and household systems, community, and local administrative organization. The authors cite examples from historical European and Asian agrarian societies. The primary focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: M. Cain, Center for Policy Studies, Population Council, 1 Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10639 Chipande, Graham. The impact of demographic changes on rural development in Malawi. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 162-74 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter shows how population growth and associated demographic changes have substantially influenced the pattern of development in rural Malawi. Specifically, population growth and associated demographic changes in rural Malawi have affected smallholder agricultural development, mostly through changes in cultivated area, and this has altered income distribution among the rural populations." These issues are discussed using data from Malawi censuses for the period 1901-1977.
Correspondence: G. Chipande, Economics Department, Chancellor College, University of Malawi, P.O. Box 280, Zomba, Malawi. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10640 Dandekar, V. M. Population front of India's economic development. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 23, No. 51, Dec 17, 1988. 2,709-11 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The author responds to comments by P. H. Reddy and by V. Bhate and S. Mulay on a previous article concerning the demographic factor in India's economic development. The focus of the debate is on the demographic effectiveness of the national family planning program.
For the articles by Reddy and by Bhate and Mulay, both published in 1988, see 54:40654 and 54:40353.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10641 Evenson, Robert E. Population growth, infrastructure, and real incomes in North India. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 118-39 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
An empirical perspective on the economic effects of increases in population density is presented in four steps using data from India for the years 1959-1975. In the first step the author develops an analysis of the determinants, including population density, of the structure of Indian agriculture. Second, the impact of the structural environment (including physical, biological, economic, and technological factors) on the supply of agricultural goods and on the demand for labor force is estimated. In the final two steps, a model of the northern Indian agricultural sector is developed that allows for computation of the impact of population growth on demand for agricultural goods, price changes, labor supply, and real income in India.
Correspondence: R. E. Evenson, Economic Growth Center, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06810. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10642 Herrin, Alejandro N. Demographic impact of development projects: a review of selected Philippine case studies. Population and Labour Policies Programme Working Paper, No. 162, ISBN 92-2-106839-0. Sep 1988. v, 71 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to review Philippine studies dealing with the demographic impact of selected development projects." Projects reviewed include rural electrification, irrigation and rural roads, and a small-scale industry promotion. "Section II provides a brief background...on the demographic and socio-economic situation in the Philippines, including population objectives and population programme activities. Sections III to VI review selected studies dealing with assessments of the socio-economic and demographic impact of development projects. Finally, Section VII summarises the more salient substantive results of the studies as well as their policy implications. It also discusses some methodological lessons obtained from the case studies that might be relevant for future research." Data from official Philippine sources.
Correspondence: ILO Publications, International Labour Office, Route des Morillons, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10643 Hull, Terence H.; Hull, Valerie J. The impact of development projects, initiatives and processes on demographic behaviour. Country review: Indonesia. Population and Labour Policies Programme Working Paper, No. 161, ISBN 92-2-106838-2. Sep 1988. v, 46 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"In this review various individual elements of economic and social change are examined in the context of planned economic development....A number of development projects in Indonesia which might have had an impact on fertility or infant and child mortality [are examined]." The paper provides "an overview of Indonesia's demographic and economic situation from 1965 to the present.., an inventory and categorisation of development projects in Indonesia from the early 1970s to the present, and a description of possible links between certain types of development project and demographic behaviour....[as well as] detailed reviews of selected projects representing a variety of donors and types of project....[and] implications and recommendations for further research."
Correspondence: ILO Publications, International Labour Office, Route des Morillons, CH-1211 Geneva 22, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10644 Kelley, Allen C. Economic consequences of population change in the third world. Journal of Economic Literature, Vol. 26, No. 4, Dec 1988. 1,685-728 pp. Nashville, Tennessee. In Eng.
The impact of rapid population growth on economic development in third world countries is explored. "Section I provides an empirical point of reference by summarizing some of the salient demographic trends in the Third World. Section II takes up analytical perspectives useful to assessing the impacts of population on development. A preliminary empirical appraisal of the relationship between population and economic growth is provided in Section III, followed in Sections IV-VI by an examination of the effects of demographic change on the scale of production, the rate of saving and the composition of investment, and the rate and form of technical change in agriculture. Section VII concludes with a summary assessment and some qualifications relating to government policies, ecology, and values."
Correspondence: A. C. Kelley, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10645 Khan, Azizur R. Population growth and access to land: an Asian perspective. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 143-61 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter includes discussion of the effect of demographic growth in Asia on (a) the distribution of access to land and (b) rural poverty." Countries considered include Bangladesh, China, India, the Republic of Korea, Pakistan, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand. The ways in which these countries did or did not avoid the typical pattern of rapid population growth, limited growth in land supply, and the resultant increased impoverishment of large masses of people are examined. Whether these are permanent or temporary mechanisms to cope with such expansion is also discussed. Bangladesh, a country where the typical pattern has been followed, is explored in detail. The author concludes that in Asia, long-term policies should be created to reduce the population growth rate, provide for the expanding labor force, and ensure equitable access to land.
Correspondence: A. R. Khan, Country Policy Department, World Bank, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10646 Lee, Ronald; Cohen, Nigel. Evaluating externalities to childbearing in developing countries: the case of India. Program in Population Research Working Paper, Dec 9, 1988. 28, [11) pp. University of California, Institute of International Studies, Program in Population Research: Berkeley, California. In Eng.
This study is concerned with externalities to childbearing, defined as the costs or benefits passed to others than the parents concerned. An attempt is made to identify and quantify such externalities "for a country with resources and budget like India's, but in which everyone has the same tastes and socioeconomic circumstances. Externalities are here claimed to arise in five ways: 1) diluting the per capita share of common property resources; 2) diluting the per capita share of public wealth; 3) spreading the costs of public goods; 4) affecting the age distribution of non-familial intergenerational transfers; 5) inducing technological progress. For the first, an expression is derived for the size of the externality, and it is shown to persist even under optimal management, but no evaluation is attempted, although it is suggested that this is the most important of the five." Preliminary estimates are derived for three of the remaining four externalities.
Correspondence: Program in Population Research, Institute of International Studies, Graduate Group in Demography, University of California, 2232 Piedmont Avenue, Berkeley, CA 94720. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10647 Pant, Raghab D.; Acharya, Sunil. Population and development in Nepal. Jun 1988. 303, [4] pp. National Commission on Population: Kathmandu, Nepal. In Eng.
This report is designed as a training document for middle-level planners and program personnel in Nepal. It is divided into five parts, each with several chapters. Part A reviews population and development, and population characteristics and trends in Nepal. Part B is concerned with the sources of population growth and their relationship to economic development, with consideration given to fertility, mortality, and migration. Part C discusses the impact of population growth on the economy, health, education, and the environment. Part D presents papers on population development in relation to the status of women, family planning, and agriculture. Policy and other recommendations are presented in the final section.
Correspondence: National Commission on Population, Singh Durbar, Kathmandu, Nepal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10648 Patterson, John G.; Shrestha, Nanda R. Population growth and development in the third world: the neocolonial context. Studies in Comparative International Development, Vol. 23, No. 2, Summer 1988. 3-32 pp. New Brunswick, New Jersey. In Eng.
The authors attempt a synthesis of Malthusian and Marxist approaches to the analysis of the relationship between population and development in contemporary third world countries. They suggest that under current capitalist systems prevalent in most developing countries, rapid population growth weakens the position of the working class and their ability to wage a successful class struggle against landlords and capitalists. The authors conclude with a series of propositions based on this synthesis which they suggest are relevant to the development of policies designed to alleviate the problems of population and development.
Correspondence: J. G. Patterson, University of Wisconsin, Whitewater, WI 53190. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:10649 Rosenzweig, Mark R.; Binswanger, Hans P.; McIntire, John. From land abundance to land scarcity: the effects of population growth on production relations in agrarian economies. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 77-100 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we have attempted to delineate the principal behavioural and technological factors which act as determinants of production relations in agriculture in order to assess how such relations are transformed as a consequence of the shift from land abundance to land scarcity associated with population growth. Our analysis departed from many of those in the existing literature in its application of the general risk and information problems...to the unique technological characteristics of agriculture in order to provide an internally consistent explanation of many well-documented institutional features of land-abundant and land-scarce economies with poorly developed transport and communication networks." The primary geographical focus is on developing countries.
Correspondence: M. R. Rosenzweig, Department of Economics, University of Minnesota, Minneapolis, MN 55455. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10650 Sudoplatov, A. P.; Pervushin, A. S. Population issues and world development (capitalist and developing countries). [Problemy narodonaseleniya i mirovoe razvitie (kapitalisticheskie i razvivayushchiesya strany).] LC 87-150037. 1986. 126 pp. Izdatel'stvo Moskovskogo Universiteta: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The causes and consequences of contemporary demographic problems in Western countries are reviewed. The focus is on the effect of population dynamics on socioeconomic development in third-world countries that were previously subject to colonial rule. The process of the formation of labor resources in these countries is given special attention. The authors apply a systems approach to the analysis of the impact of demographic trends on social development and social policy.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

55:10651 United Nations. Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific [ESCAP] (Bangkok, Thailand). Population and development: frameworks for research and planning. Report of the Workshop on an Analytical Framework for Population and Development Research and Planning, Bangkok, Thailand, 16-20 February, 1987. Asian Population Studies Series, No. 82; ST/ESCAP/596, 1988. iii, 101 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This is a report from an ESCAP workshop designed to provide developing countries in Asia and Oceania with a framework for the analysis of the relationship between population and socioeconomic development as part of the development planning process. The focus of the workshop was on Bangladesh, Nepal, the Philippines, and Thailand. Its objectives were to review and discuss the research methodology and study design for the proposed country studies. The report includes three background papers on aspects of the population-development relationship. Priority areas for future research are also discussed.
Correspondence: ESCAP, United Nations Building, Rajdamnern Avenue, Bangkok 10200, Thailand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10652 van den Oever-Pereira, Pietronella. Women in Sub-Saharan Africa's village economy: demographic and economic aspects. 1987. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to [historically] examine the interplay of women in Sub-Saharan African village economy, their motivation for high fertility, and their changing status in agricultural production. Evidence is based on experience from field work, supplemented by secondary sources." Since the early 1900s when industrial development began to affect agricultural methods, women have helped with cash crop production. Present-day women have responded to development changes by attempting to "increase their production potential by having many children who can help with domestic and agricultural tasks and strengthen their position in the husband's family."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Southern California.
Correspondence: Micrographics Department, Doheny Library, University of Southern California, Los Angeles, CA 90089-0182. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 48(12).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

55:10653 Ben-Porath, Yoram. Market, government, and Israel's muted baby boom. In: Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, and Gerry Rodgers. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 12-38 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The emphasis of this study is on the phenomenon of rapid change and its effect on society, specifically, Israel's adaptability to the baby boom of the 1950s. The role of the government in responding to the change in cohort size is examined "by following the evolution of the school system as it coped with the uneven arrival of students at different levels." The effect of the large cohort on the labor market, wages, unemployment, and the macroeconomy is discussed.
Correspondence: Y. Ben-Porath, Hebrew University of Jerusalem, Mount Scopus, Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10654 Cigno, Alessandro. Macroeconomic consequences of the "new home economics" In: Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, and Gerry Rodgers. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 139-50 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"We set out in this chapter to examine the consequences of grafting an economic theory of fertility onto a simple model of economic growth. Our first discovery was that the existence of a sustainable equilibrium with growing per capita income imposes certain local restrictions on the form of the utility function. By exploiting those restrictions we were able to derive firm conclusions about the effects of government intervention on the long-term behaviour of the model economy. The most striking of these conclusions was that a policy of taxing income and redistributing the proceeds to the families in proportion to the number of children would increase income, consumption, and the number of children per adult, but would permanently reduce the amount spent on each child."
Correspondence: A. Cigno, University of Hull, Cottingham Road, Hull HU6 7RX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10655 Keyfitz, Nathan. Some demographic properties of transfer schemes: how to achieve equity between the generations. In: Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, and Gerry Rodgers. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 92-105 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author considers some transfer schemes designed to provide financial equity between generations in the United States. He examines "the amounts that are paid by the baby boom generation, now supporting the small generation that preceded it, and the large amount that its smaller successor will have to pay. The difference is great enough to throw doubt on whether pensions will actually be paid in the years after 2015." The author presents three possible intergenerational transfer schemes that are directed principally to social security, analyzes each one, and concludes that a combination of the three would best serve future generations.
Correspondence: N. Keyfitz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10656 Schapiro, Morton O. Socio-economic effects of relative income and relative cohort size. Social Science Research, Vol. 17, No. 4, Dec 1988. 362-83 pp. Duluth, Minnesota. In Eng.
"A nonlinear three-stage least-squares technique is used to estimate a four-equation model in which age-specific fertility, marriage, divorce, and female labor force participation rates are the dependent variables. In addition to a range of explanatory variables, two proxies for the Easterlin hypothesis are tested within the model, one measuring relative income and the other measuring relative cohort size. Findings indicate that the Easterlin proxies, while not statistically significant in all cases, help to explain time-series movements in various socio-economic variables in the postwar United States."
Correspondence: M. O. Schapiro, Department of Economics, Williams College, Williamstown, MA 01267. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:10657 Simon, Julian L. Re-linking fertility behavior and economic security in old age: comment on Demeny. Population and Development Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, Jun 1988. 327-37 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author comments on a recent article by Paul Demeney concerning a revival of the linkage between fertility and old-age security in developed countries. A reply by Demeney (pp. 332-7) is included.
For the article by Demeny, published in 1987, see 53:30473.
Correspondence: J. L. Simon, College of Business and Management, University of Maryland, College Park, MD 20742. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10658 Willis, Robert J. Life cycles, institutions, and population growth: a theory of the equilibrium interest rate in an overlapping generations model. In: Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, and Gerry Rodgers. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 106-38 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter I present a theoretical framework in which microeconomic models of individual and family life-cycle economic and demographic behaviour can be integrated into a dynamic general equilibrium model of the determination of the equilibrium rate of interest in a competitive economy....The focus of this discussion is chiefly on the consequences of population growth and family behaviour for the equilibrium interest rate." The primary geographical emphasis is on developed countries.
Correspondence: R. J. Willis, University of Chicago, 5801 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

55:10659 Bittles, A. H. Famine and man: lessons from the Irish past, a guide to the future? Biology and Society, Vol. 5, No. 3, Sep 1988. 109-18 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The intention of the present study was to examine such information as is available on the Ethiopian famine of the 1980s, and to compare it with known sequelae of the Irish Famine [of the mid-nineteenth century]. From this comparison it may be possible to determine if features common to all disasters of this nature are identifiable, and ultimately, whether the information gained can be employed to prevent their recurrence and further large-scale loss of life."
Correspondence: A. H. Bittles, Department of Anatomy and Human Biology, King's College London, Strand, London WC2R 2LS, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10660 Brown, Lester R. The changing world food prospect: the nineties and beyond. Worldwatch Paper, No. 85, ISBN 0-916468-86-0. LC 88-51287. Oct 1988. 58 pp. Worldwatch Institute: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is a review of the world food situation and prospects for its future. The author notes that the world's food reserves have decreased over the past two years primarily because of a rise in demand due to population growth and a decline in supply caused by a monsoon failure in India and drought-reduced harvests in China and North America. He suggests that the food surpluses of the early and mid-eighties were a short-term phenomenon resulting from over-plowing and overuse of water. Population growth is estimated to be at its peak in the 1990s, leading to an increase of one billion people by the year 2000. The author concludes that the problem of feeding these extra numbers may be complicated by the lack of new agricultural technology, the need to practice soil conservation, and the impact of global warming trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10661 Durham, David F.; Fandrem, Jim C. The food "surplus": a staple illusion of economics; a cruel illusion for populations. Population and Environment, Vol. 10, No. 2, Winter 1988. 115-21 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Disjunction between market surpluses of food and worldwide nutritional shortfalls appears to be symptomatic of underlying vulnerabilities, raising questions about the sustainability of agricultural production." The authors assert that the need to maintain the earth's carrying capacity entails the limiting of population growth.
Correspondence: D. F. Durham, Durham Associates, 251 Kearny Street, Suite 608, San Francisco, CA 94108. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10662 Gilland, Bernard. Population, economic growth, and energy demand, 1985-2020. Population and Development Review, Vol. 14, No. 2, Jun 1988. 233-44, 378-80 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"A world energy demand projection for the years 2000 and 2020 is developed on the basis of projected population, assumed economic growth rates, and a postulated relation between elasticity of energy demand and gross domestic product per capita. The principal problem on the supply side is shown to be the rise in global carbon dioxide emission from increased consumption of fossil fuels."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10663 Hardin, Garrett. Wilderness, a probe into "cultural carrying capacity" Population and Environment, Vol. 10, No. 1, Fall 1988. 5-13 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author explores population theory in this brief discussion of the relationship between population policy and the environment. "Population policy for human beings must be governed by a commitment never to transcend the cultural carrying capacity. Determining this capacity is a problem in values. As concerns material goods, the cultural carrying capacity is inversely proportional to the quality of life demanded. Inherently scarce goods like wilderness, which can be enjoyed by only a few, pose this ethical problem: can we agree on a basis for choosing an elite, or must we, like the French revolutionary Gracchus Babeuf, insist on equal distribution even if the only possible allotment is then zero? If we reject Babeuf we must recognize that the maximum population cannot be the optimum."
Correspondence: G. Hardin, 399 Arboleda Road, Santa Barbara, CA 93110. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10664 Lee, Ronald D.; Arthur, W. Brian; Kelley, Allen C.; Rodgers, Gerry; Srinivasan, T. N. Population, food and rural development. International Studies in Demography, ISBN 0-19-828646-S. LC 88-19627. 1988. vii, 215 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This volume is a compilation of papers by various authors addressing the issue of population density and growth and its impact on food supply, labor force, agricultural technology, market institutions, economy, land supply, and the growth of a rural proletariat. The problem of agricultural productivity as affected by capital and technological inputs is addressed, and the impact of migration and an open frontier on the alleviation of the problems of rapid growth is considered. "These issues are discussed both in general terms and in the context of specific developing countries in Africa, Latin America, and Asia." The papers were originally prepared for an IUSSP seminar held in New Delhi, India, December 15-18, 1984.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10665 MacKellar, F. L.; Vining, D. R. Research policy and review 26: where does the United States stand in the global resource scarcity debate? Environment and Planning A, Vol. 20, No. 12, Dec 1988. 1,567-73 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"U.S. policy on world resources and population underwent a drastic shift between the 1970s and 1980s. Underlying this shift were deep and persistent divisions among social scientists and policy scientists who are students of the global resource scarcity hypothesis. This article consists of a brief review of the history of the debate between those who believe that resources are becoming increasingly scarce and those who do not. Major focuses include the ambiguities of scarcity measures, and economic literature such as The Limits to Growth, Global 2000, the critique of Julian Simon, and The Resourceful Earth."
Correspondence: F. L. MacKellar, Department of Economics, Queens College, City University of New York, Flushing, NY 11367. Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

55:10666 Pingali, Prabhu; Binswanger, Hans P. Population density and farming systems: the changing locus of innovations and technical change. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 51-76 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The authors discuss "the farmer-based and modern technological options available to societies for achieving growth in agricultural output through increases in land and labour productivity....The determinants of the intensity of land use [are examined], emphasizing the consequences of population concentration and improvements in transport infrastructure. [A] subsequent section discusses the farmer-based innovations in response to agricultural intensification, and...the role of science- and industry-based innovations in achieving rapid increases in agricultural output."
Correspondence: P. Pingali, International Rice Research Institute, P.O. Box 933, Manila, Philippines. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10667 Reid, Ann C. Population change, natural resources, and regionalism. Breaking New Ground, No. 1, ISBN 0-938549-00-9. LC 86-25682. 1986. Grey Towers Press: Milford, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
These are the proceedings of a conference held at Grey Towers, Pennsylvania, September 18-19, 1985, on the relationship between population and resources and its meaning for national and state policy in the United States. Topics covered include the impact of population distribution on natural resources and U.S. regional initiatives to utilize and preserve local resources.
Correspondence: National Friends of Grey Towers, P.O. Box 188, Milford, PA 18337. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10668 Reidel, Carl. Natural resources and the environment: the challenge of economic and social development. Population and Environment, Vol. 10, No. 1, Fall 1988. 48-58 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to bring some new perspectives to the debate about the proper balance between economic development and environmental protection." The focus is on how natural resource professionals can and should integrate an understanding of the world's population and environmental problems into their perspectives on natural resource management.
Correspondence: C. Reidel, 153 South Prospect Street, Burlington, VT 05401-13595. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10669 Russell, W. M. S. Population, swidden farming and the tropical environment. Population and Environment, Vol. 10, No. 2, Winter 1988. 77-94 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Swidden farming has been blamed for the degradation of tropical forest, where it is widely used. However, when the cropping period is short and the fallow period long, the system is shown to be ideally suited to this environment. But this entails a low population density. When this is exceeded, the fallow must be shortened, resulting in loss of forest through grassland invasion, or of the soil itself through erosion or laterization, as shown by modern examples and by the history of the Maya. The degradation blamed on swidden farming is thus not due to the system itself, but to overpopulation, in H. G. Wells's words, 'the fundamental evil out of which all the others that afflicted the race arose.'"
Correspondence: W. M. S. Russell, Department of Sociology, University of Reading, Whiteknights, Box 218, Reading RG6 2AA, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10670 Srinivasan, T. N. Population growth and food: an assessment of issues, models, and projections. In: Population, food and rural development, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, Allen C. Kelley, Gerry Rodgers, and T. N. Srinivasan. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 11-47 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Using 1984 data from the World Bank for "projected increases in population and per capita income until the year 2000 [the paper first] examines whether the global food economy can generate enough supplies to avoid a sustained increase in the relative price of food that otherwise would have to occur to bring about a balance between supply and demand....Second, it analyses the likely impact of exogenous reduction in rate of growth of population on the food consumption and energy intake of the poor. Finally, it assesses the strengths and weaknesses of some recent models of the world food economy. In particular, a model of the Indian economy is used to assess the impact of alternative assumptions regarding the growth of Indian population until the year 2000." Comments by Hans Linnemann are included (pp. 40-7).
Correspondence: T. N. Srinivasan, Department of Economics, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06810. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10671 Strong, Maurice. Managing for global survival. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 132, No. 2, 1988. 196-203 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
The need to manage human activities worldwide and to control our impact on the planet's environmental and natural resource system in the light of projected rates of population growth is discussed. Particular attention is drawn to the environmental impact of current socioeconomic development trends in developed countries. The author ends by pointing out that a global system of management will require a level of discipline, constraint, and mitigation of sovereignty by individual nations.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

55:10672 Anker, Richard; Anker, Martha. Improving the measurement of women's participation in the Egyptian labour force: results of a methodological study. Population and Labour Policies Programme Working Paper, No. 163, ISBN 92-2-106855-2. Sep 1988. viii, 121 pp. International Labour Office [ILO]: Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
"This paper is concerned with female labour force data for Egypt; with the tendency for women's participation in the labour force to be underreported in labour force surveys and population censuses and thus in official government statistics; and with identifying the reasons for this underreporting....This survey, which is a controlled experiment designed to provide statistical evidence on how various questionnaire types and fieldwork techniques affect the reporting and thus the measurement of female labour force activity, has a sample size of about 1,000 households. It was conducted in late 1984 in rural areas of Egypt by CAPMAS (the Egyptian Government's Statistical Office) in collaboration with the ILO." Included in the study are comparisons of questionnaires, sex of interviewer and respondent, characteristics of households and interview environment, marital and educational status of women, and interviewer's assessment of quality of data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10673 Brown, E. The economically active population in French Polynesia: the current situation and future perspectives. [La population active en Polynesie Francaise: situation et perspectives.] Travaux et Recherches de l'IDP, No. 2, Dec 1988. 62 pp. Universite de Paris I, Institut de Demographie de Paris [IDP]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Labor force participation in French Polynesia is analyzed based on data from the 1983 census. The first part examines labor force activity and the education and training of the population, with consideration given to differences in economic activity by ethnic group and sex. The second part presents population projections up to 1998.
Correspondence: IDP, 22 Rue Vauquelin, 75005 Paris, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10674 Ermisch, John. British labour market responses to age distribution changes. In: Economics of changing age distributions in developed countries, edited by Ronald D. Lee, W. Brian Arthur, and Gerry Rodgers. International Studies in Demography, 1988. 76-86 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author investigates the impact of age distribution changes on the labor force in Great Britain. "The analysis...begins by examining how relative wages among age groups in the labour force would need to respond to changes in the size of different age groups in order to maintain full employment of all workers. It is shown how the degree of complementarity...between the various groups of workers determines the nature of this response....The empirical analysis focuses on three groups of workers: young men (aged under 21), older men, and women....The evidence for substitutability between women and young men suggests that the growth in the supply of women workers and changes in their relative earnings may be closely related to changes in the supply, relative earnings, and employment experience of young male workers."
Correspondence: J. Ermisch, Policy Studies Institute, 100 Park Village East, London NW1 3SR, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10675 Espenshade, Thomas J.; Goodis, Tracy A. Are Mexican immigrant and U.S. native workers substitutes or complements in production? Lessons from Southern California and the American Southwest. Program for Research on Immigration Policy Discussion Paper, No. PRIP-UI-3, Oct 1988. 27 pp. Urban Institute: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Using 1980 U.S. census data, the authors "synthesize what is currently known about the possibly competitive roles of Mexican immigrant and native workers in the Los Angeles labor market." In particular, they consider whether Mexican immigrants are competing or complementary factors of production with the domestic black labor force. The authors find that "labor markets tend to adjust to minimize the importance of either strong substitution or complementary effects." An attempt is made to generalize from the Los Angeles experience to the entire United States.
Correspondence: Urban Institute, Library/Information Clearinghouse, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10676 Ishikawa, Akira. Abridged working life tables for the Japanese men and women: 1985. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 184, Oct 1987. 84-94 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Abridged working life tables are presented for men and women in Japan for the year 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10677 Ortiz, Vilma; Fennelly, Katherine. Early childbearing and employment among young Mexican origin, black, and white women. Social Science Quarterly, Vol. 69, No. 4, Dec 1988. 987-95 pp. Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"This paper describes an analysis of data from several waves of interviews with young Hispanic, black, and white women [in the United States] who gave birth to their first children before age 22. The pre- and post-birth labor force participation rates of women from these three racial/ethnic groups before and after adjusting for differences in several background variables are compared....This study has shown that the employment patterns of young Mexican origin, black, and white women are very different before bearing a child [but that] the birth of a first child has an equalizing effect upon employment....Among all women in the study, educational attainment was an important predictor of employment around the first birth."
Correspondence: V. Ortiz, Department of Sociology, University of California, Los Angeles, CA 90024-1551. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:10678 Schwarz, Karl. The extent of employment after World War II. [Umfang der Erwerbstatigkeit nach dem Zweiten Weltkrieg.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1988. 275-94 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Changes in the structure of the labor force in the Federal Republic of Germany since World War II are analyzed. Aspects considered include a shorter span of economic activity due to increased levels of education and to early retirement pension plans, reductions in the length of the work week, an increase in part-time employment, smaller family size, and changes in the employment patterns of women.
Correspondence: K. Schwarz, Klopstockstrasse 14, 6200 Wiesbaden, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10679 Sommer, Bettina. Employment in March 1987: results of the micro-census. [Erwerbstatigkeit im Marz 1987: Ergebnis des Mikrozensus.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 8, Aug 1988. 513-23 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Employment statistics from the March 1987 micro-census of the Federal Republic of Germany are presented and discussed. Comparisons are also made with results for 1986. Topics covered include labor force size, major source of income, labor force participation by age group and by sex, income, and working hours.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10680 Wainerman, Catalina H. Improving censal accounting of female workers. In: African Population Conference/Congres Africain de Population, Dakar, Senegal, November/novembre 7-12, 1988. Vol. 1, 1988. 1.1.31-46 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author assesses the collection of labor force statistics, particularly the quality of data on women in developing countries. She tests "1) the extent to which the standard census procedure distorts the portrait of [female labor force] participation, mainly in the agricultural and the informal sector, 2) the effects of various factors assumed responsible for it, and 3) the adequacy of an alternative procedure which follows closely the [International Labour Office] standards and is able to be applied in censuses."
Correspondence: C. H. Wainerman, CONICET, Rivadavia 1917, 1033 Buenos Aires, Argentina. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10681 Wiatrak, Andrzej P. Changes in the labor force resources employed in Polish agriculture, 1950-1985. [Zmiany w zasobach sily roboczej zaangazowanej w rolnictwie Polskim w latach 1950-1985.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 1/91, 1988. 51-81 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Data from official sources are used to analyze changes in the agricultural labor force in Poland between 1950 and 1985, with consideration given to age, sex, place of employment, branch of agricultural economy, and education.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10682 Young, Christabel. Life cycle experience of cohorts in the evolution of female labour force participation in Australia. Working Papers in Economic History, No. 86, ISBN 0-86784-811-1. Sep 1987. 36 pp. Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Department of Demography: Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper examines the experience of cohorts of women [in Australia] with regard to their lifetime demographic history, the ages at which they would have benefitted from new legislation and changes in community attitudes, and the outcome of their experience in terms of trends in age-specific labour force participation rates....Also considered are women's contribution to the total labour force, the sources of growth of the female labour force in terms of the share between part-time and full-time work and between major occupation groups, and trends in dependency ratios during the post-war years."
Correspondence: Department of Demography, Research School of Social Science, Australian National University, GPO Box 4, Canberra ACT 2600, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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