Volume 55 - Number 1 - Spring 1989

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

55:10090 de Azevedo Reis, Elizabeth. The spatial demography of Portugal in the late nineteenth century: evidence from the 1864 and 1878 censuses. Pub. Order No. BRD-80613. 1987. 390 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This thesis is concerned with the analysis and correction of the 1864 and 1878 Portuguese censuses in order to define spatial demographic patterns for the mainland of Portugal during the third quarter of the nineteenth century. It is intended to investigate two questions. First, what were the demographic characteristics of the population during the period considered and second how far did these characteristics vary within the country. Several statistical methods were used to correct the census data for content and completeness errors and, at the same time, stable population techniques were applied to estimate mortality, nuptiality, fertility and the mobility of the male population. Clustering methods were applied to the data at the level of concelho (municipality) in order to define homogeneous regions."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Southampton, England.
Correspondence: University Microfilms International, 300 North Zeeb Road, Ann Arbor, MI 48106. Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 49(1).

55:10091 Heywood, Linda; Thornton, John. African fiscal systems as sources for demographic history: the case of central Angola, 1799-1920. Journal of African History, Vol. 29, No. 2, 1988. 213-28 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The use of traditional African fiscal systems as sources of demographic data is considered. The value of such sources is illustrated using demographic data for the central highlands of Angola collected in the 1850s by Lazlo Magyar. "Our study of the population data left by Magyar suggests that it is reliable and can be used to show population trends in central Africa from 1800 to 1900. Population appears to have increased rapidly in the central highlands during this period, probably because of the importation of slaves, while it decreased dramatically after 1850 in the lands of the Lunda empire to the east."
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:10092 Mattmuller, Markus. The demographic history of Switzerland. Part 1: early modern times, 1500-1700. Volume 2: appendix. [Bevolkerungsgeschichte der Schweiz. Teil 1: die fruhe Neuzeit, 1500-1700. Band 2: wissenschaftlicher Anhang.] Basler Beitrage zur Geschichtswissenschaft, Vol. 154a, ISBN 3-7190-0970-X. 1987. xii, [283] pp. Helbing und Lichtenhahn: Basel, Switzerland. In Ger.
This volume is an appendix to a study on population growth in Switzerland from 1500 to 1700. It includes a selection of the data referred to in Volume 1, a consideration of the methodological difficulties involved in historical studies of this kind, and a selection of studies of smaller regions in Switzerland using data from local censuses and church records.
For Volume 1 of Part 1, also published in 1987, see 54:20081.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

55:10093 Aleksinska, Janina. The demographic situation in Poland in 1987. [Sytuacja demograficzna Polski w 1987 r.] Wiadomosci Statystyczne, Vol. 33, No. 6, Jun 1988. 4-7 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
Demographic trends in Poland in 1987 are reviewed using data from official sources. The author notes that the population growth rate for 1987 was 0.5 percent, compared to 0.8 percent for the 1980s as a whole.
Correspondence: J. Aleksinska, Departament Spisow i Badan Demograficznych, Glowny Urzad Statystyczny, Al. Niepodleglosci 208, 00-925 Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10094 Alfonso Fraga, Juan C. The development of the population of Cuba in the five-year period 1981-1985 and a comparison with 1976-1980: expected developments for the five-year period 1986-1990. [Evolucion de la poblacion de Cuba en el quinquenio 1981-1985 y su comparacion con el de 1976-1980: evolucion perspectiva para el quinquenio 1986-1990.] Revista Estadistica, No. 19, Aug 1986. 49-104 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Cuban demographic trends for the periods 1976-1980 and 1981-1985 are examined, and trends for the period 1986-1990 are forecasted. The results indicate that Cuban population trends are becoming increasingly similar to those of developed countries due to successful socioeconomic development.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:10095 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography Division. Population Estimates Section (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal annual estimates of population by marital status, age, sex and components of growth for Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1988. [Estimations annuelles postcensitaires de la population suivant l'etat matrimonial, l'age, le sexe et composantes de l'accroissement, Canada, provinces et territoires au ler juin 1988.] 6th ed. Vol. 6, Pub. Order No. 91-210. Dec 1988. 96 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Population estimates for Canada, its provinces, and territories for June 1, 1988, are presented by sex, age, and marital status. Selected data are included for the period 1966-1967 to 1987-1988 on the components of population change. Data are primarily from the 1986 census.
Correspondence: Population Estimates Section, Demography Division, Statistics Canada, Ottawa K1A 0T6, Ontario, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10096 Clairin, Remy; Gendreau, Francis. Knowledge of population size in Africa: a review and evaluation. [La connaissance des effectifs de population en Afrique: bilan et evaluation.] Les Dossiers du CEPED, No. 1, ISBN 2-87762-000-X. Sep 1988. 35 pp. Centre Francais sur la Population et le Developpement [CEPED]: Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Current knowledge concerning population size in Africa is reviewed based on the experience of the 44 African countries participating in a joint project coordinated by the Groupe de Demographie Africaine, an umbrella group linking French government organizations concerned with the demography of Africa. "Part I presents the main data sources (essentially statistical and administrative censuses and sample [surveys]) and various technical problems related to the conducting of these operations and to the collection procedures adopted, which may influence the quality of the population size data. The question of post-enumeration surveys is raised in this section." Part II examines the data obtained from these sources and considers the various methods of comparative analysis that would be appropriate given differences among countries. The level of under- or over-estimation of population size by each country is assessed. The publication includes an obituary of the late Remy Clairin and a bibliography of his work.
Correspondence: CEPED, 15 rue de l'Ecole de Medecine, 75270 Paris Cedex 06, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10097 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Population in Israel by marital status, age and sex, 1983-86. Monthly Bulletin of Statistics, Vol. 39, No. 3, Suppl., Mar 1988. 11-38 pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
Population estimates for Israel for the years 1983 to 1986 are presented using data from the 1983 census updated with data from the population register. The estimates are presented for the total population and the Jewish population only by sex, age, and marital status.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:10098 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates by prefecture as of October 1, 1981 to 1984 (revised). Population Estimates Series, No. 59, 1988. 78 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Revised population estimates are presented for Japan by prefecture for the period 1981 to 1984. The revised estimates take into account data from the 1985 census.
Correspondence: Statistics Bureau, Management and Coordination Agency, 19-1 Wakamatsu-cho, Shinjuku-ku, Tokyo, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10099 Laska, Eugene M.; Meisner, Morris; Siegel, Carole. Estimating the size of a population from a single sample. Biometrics, Vol. 44, No. 2, 1988. 461-72 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
A method is presented for estimating the size of a population of individuals based on a single sample of individuals from a specific list of that population, together with the identification of the list on which they last appeared. "Under relatively weak assumptions on the probability model, an unbiased maximum likelihood estimator of [the number of individuals] is obtained. An expression is derived for the bias of the estimator and its consequence on the true probability of coverage of the confidence interval when the model's assumptions do not hold." The method is applied to data on a one-percent sample of the approximately 66,000 out-patients served during one week in 1981 by the New York State Office of Mental Health.
Correspondence: E. M. Laska, Statistical Science and Epidemiology Division, Nathan S. Kline Institute for Psychiatric Research, Orangeburg, NY 10962. Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

55:10100 Portugal. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE]. Centro de Estudos Demograficos (Lisbon, Portugal). Estimates of the resident population as of December 31, 1987, by sex and age for districts and autonomous regions and by sex for municipalities. [Estimativas de populacao residente em 31.XII.1987 segundo o sexo e por idades, nos distritos e regioes autonomas e segundo o sexo, por concelhos.] Serie Estimativas Provisorias, No. 9, Jun 1988. 42 pp. Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Official population estimates for Portugal for 1987 are presented by age and sex. The estimates are provided for the whole country and for districts and autonomous regions. Provisional estimates by sex are also included for municipalities.
Correspondence: INE, Avenida Antonio Jose de Almeida, 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10101 Proebsting, Helmut. Marriages, births, and deaths, 1987. [Eheschliessungen, Geburten und Sterbefalle 1987.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 10, Oct 1988. 677-81 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Information is presented on marriages, births, and deaths in the Federal Republic of Germany for 1987. Some comparative data from earlier years are also provided. Data are included on marriages by previous marital status, age group, and marriage cohort; live births and fertility rates; deaths and excess of births over deaths; and infant mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10102 Raymondo, James C. How to estimate population. American Demographics, Vol. 11, No. 1, Jan 1989. 46-9 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
Five commonly used methods to estimate population are described. The focus is on the needs of U.S. business planners concerned with producing estimates between censuses.
Correspondence: J. C. Raymondo, Department of Sociology, Union College, Barbourville, KY 40906. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

55:10103 Atoh, Makoto. Projections of the number of households for Japan: 1985-2025. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 185, Jan 1988. 60-8 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Projections of households in Japan are presented from 1985 to 2025 including household size, type, one-person households, and elderly households. Alternative projections are also provided that take into account changing marriage patterns.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10104 Chesnais, Jean-Claude. Demography: France and the Mediterranean challenge. [Demographie: la France et l'enjeu mediteraneen.] Esprit, No. 135-136, Mar-Apr 1988. 102-11 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author discusses future demographic trends in the Mediterranean basin and in Europe, noting that these trends imply massive pressures that may lead to migration from the Mediterranean countries into Europe. In order that this movement occurs as smoothly as possible, it is suggested that priority be given to European unification, international cooperation, and assistance to Mediterranean countries that is designed to encourage democracy.
Correspondence: J.-C. Chesnais, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:10105 Chile. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile); Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA] (Ottawa, Canada). Chile: population projections by sex and age. Provinces 1980-2000. [Chile: proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad. Provincias 1980-2000.] Fasciculo F/CHI, No. 4, 1988. 86 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
This publication contains estimates and projections of the population of Chile by sex and five-year age group. Data are presented for each of the country's 51 provinces for the period 1980-2000.
Correspondence: INE, Casilla 7597, Correo 3, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10106 Duchesne, Louis. Population projections by sex and age for intermediate and smaller areas. [Proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad para areas intermedias y menores.] CELADE Serie A, No. 187; LC/DEM/G.70, Dec 1987. 83 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
A model for preparing population projections for small areas based on projections for the larger areas in which the small areas are located is presented. The method is described and applied to data for a small region in northern Chile. Comparisons are made with projections developed using other methods.
Correspondence: CELADE, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10107 El Salvador. Ministerio de Planificacion y Coordinacion del Desarrollo Economico y Social (San Salvador, El Salvador); El Salvador. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (San Salvador, El Salvador); United Nations Fund for Population Activities [UNFPA] (New York, New York). Population estimates and projections, 1950-2025. [Estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Pub. Order No. ELS/78/PO4. Nov 1986. 96 pp. San Salvador, El Salvador. In Spa.
This publication presents population estimates and projections for El Salvador from 1950 to 2025 by sex, age, and year. An introductory section describes current population trends, available data sources, and probable future trends in mortality, fertility, and international migration.
Correspondence: Ministerio de Planificacion y Coordinacion del Desarrollo Economico y Social, Casa Presidential, 10 Avenida Sur y Calle Mejico, San Salvador, El Salvador. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10108 Hablicsek, Laszlo; Langerne Redei, Maria; Szabo, Kalman. Hungary's population, national population projections from 1986 to 2021. [Magyarorszag nepessege, 1986-2021 orszagos nepessegeloreszamitas.] A Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet Kozlemenyei, No. 66, 1988. 333 pp. Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet: Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population projections, including four alternative projections, are presented separately by age and sex for Hungary up to the year 2021. Information is also provided on the methodology employed. The results suggest that fluctuations in population movement will continue and that an initial decline in population will slow down and probably stop as the large female generation born in the 1970s enters the child bearing years. Demographic aging will be significant under all the alternatives considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10109 Hablicsek, Laszlo; Langerne Redei, Maria; Szabo, Kalman. Hungary's population, 1986-2006: regional population projections. [Magyarorszag nepessege, 1986-2006: teruleti nepessegeloreszamitas.] A Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet Kozlemenyei, No. 67, 1988. 443 pp. Kozponti Statisztikai Hivatal, Nepessegtudomanyi Kutato Intezet: Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Population projections are presented for the 57 regions of Hungary for the period 1986-2006 by year, sex, and age for each regional unit. Four alternative projections are also given. Data are primarily from vital statistics for 1985 and the 1980 census.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10110 Haug, Werner. Outlook on the future of the Swiss population: population prospects, 1986-2025. [Ausblick auf die Zukunft der schweizerischen Bevolkerung: Bevolkerungsperspektiven 1986-2025.] Schweizerische Zeitschrift fur Volkswirtschaft und Statistik/Revue Suisse d'Economie Politique et de Statistique, Vol. 124, No. 2, Jun 1988. 193-210 pp. Bern, Switzerland. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
Population projections for Switzerland are presented up to 2025 using official data. They show that the population will age considerably unless there are radical changes in fertility or immigration. The importance of future migration trends for population projections is also stressed.
Correspondence: W. Haug, Abteilung Bevolkerung und Beschaftigung, Bundesamt fur Statistik, Hallwylstrasse 15, 3003 Bern, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10111 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Projection of population in Israel up to 2010: based on the population in 1985. Central Bureau of Statistics Special Series, No. 828, Dec 1988. 135, xxix pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Eng; Heb.
Population projections up to the year 2010 are presented for Israel using official data. High, medium, and low projections are included and are presented separately for Jews, by continent of birth or Israeli-born; and for non-Jews, including Moslems, Christians, and Druze.
Correspondence: Central Bureau of Statistics, P.O. Box 13015, Jerusalem, Israel. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

55:10112 Meade, Nigel. A modified logistic model applied to human populations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 151, Pt. 3, 1988. 491-8 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The use of the logistic curve for forecasting human populations [in the United Kingdom] considered by Leach is re-examined. A modification of the use of the logistic curve is suggested, which changes the emphasis from fitting a logistic trend to providing a forecast logistic trend. The assumption, used by Leach, that the variance of the additive disturbance term is constant is replaced by a more realistic supposition that the variance of the proportional disturbance is constant. The forecasting performance of the modified logistic model is shown to be superior to that of the model used by Leach." A reply by Leach (pp. 496-7) and a response by the author (p. 498) are included.
For the study by Donald Leach, published in 1981, see 47:3172.
Correspondence: N. Meade, The Management School, Imperial College of Science and Technology, Exhibition Road, London SW7 2BX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10113 Raeside, R. The use of sigmoids in modelling and forecasting human populations. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 151, Pt. 3, 1988. 499-513 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The aim of this paper is to present a review that might justify giving further consideration to the use of sigmoids in contemporary population modelling and forecasting. To do this a brief account is given of the historical development of these models, pointing out why demographers have viewed these trend models with scepticism. Most of the paper is devoted to showing that, despite these criticisms, sigmoid-based trend models are useful practical tools for the demographer." Examples using data for various countries are presented.
Correspondence: R. Raeside, Department of Mathematics, Napier College, Sighthill Court, Edingburgh EH14 1DJ, Scotland. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

55:10114 Spencer, Gregory. Projections of the population of the United States, by age, sex, and race: 1988 to 2080. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1018, Jan 1989. vi, 171 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains projections of the United States population by age, sex, and race for the years 1988 to 2080. The projections represent the mathematical outcome of assumptions about future trends in fertility, mortality, and net immigration. They are based on July 1, 1986, population estimates by age, sex, and race and are projected forward using the cohort-component method with alternative assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net immigration levels."
Correspondence: Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10115 Todaro, Marzia V. Models for regional and subregional population projections. [I modelli per le previsioni demografiche regionali e sub-regionali.] Collana di Studi Statistico-Sociali e Demografici, No. 6, 1988. 73 pp. Universita di Palermo, Istituto di Statistica Sociale e Scienze Demografiche e Biometriche: Palermo, Italy. In Ita.
The author discusses the economic, political, and social importance of regional and subregional population forecasts, and reviews 65 articles concerning forecasting problems. She then analyzes aspects of making demographic projections, with particular reference to selection of the criteria for measuring the accuracy of such projections. Consideration is also given to the typology of errors in forecasting, and to an examination of the accuracy of Italian regional demographic projections, based on 1981 data from official Italian sources that are presented in an appendix.
Correspondence: Istituto di Statistica Sociale e Scienze Demografiche e Biometriche, Universita di Palermo, Viale delle Scienze, 90128 Palermo, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10116 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica). Costa Rica: population estimates and projections, 1950-2025. [Costa Rica: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F./CR.1, Jan 1988. 174 pp. San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Population projections are presented for Costa Rica by sex and age-group by five-year intervals from 1985 to 2025. Estimates of recent population trends from 1950 to 1985 and some analyses of data from the 1984 census are first presented. Next, probable developments in mortality, infant mortality, fertility, and international migration are reviewed, followed by detailed projections.
Correspondence: CELADE, Apartado Postal 5249, San Jose, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10117 Volkov, A. G. The methodology of population projections. [Metodologiya demograficheskogo prognoza.] ISBN 5-02-013312-4. 1988. 223 pp. Nauka: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a selection of papers by various authors on the methodology of population projection. Separate consideration is given to changes in nuptiality, fertility, and life expectancy. Some new models and methods for making projections are introduced. A special section is devoted to the relationship between demographic and socioeconomic factors and their impact on population projections. The primary geographical focus is on the USSR.
Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

55:10118 Waldrop, Judith. 2010. American Demographics, Vol. 11, No. 2, Feb 1989. 18-21, 53-5 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
Trends in population growth in the United States are discussed, based on Bureau of the Census state population projections for the period 1988-2010. Consideration is given to estimation methodology, government policy, and implications for business.
Correspondence: J. Waldrop, American Demographics, 108 North Cayuga Street, Ithaca, NY 14850. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10119 Zeidenstein, George. A view of the early twenty-first century. Proceedings of the American Philosophical Society, Vol. 132, No. 2, 1988. 204-9 pp. Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
Probable population trends through the first quarter of the twenty-first century are reviewed, and the implications of these projections assessed, especially for policymakers and development planners. Special consideration is given to the problems faced by the developing world. The author suggests that "available resources--materials, trained people, effective institutions--are insufficient to keep up in timely ways with the demands of rapidly growing numbers of people."
Correspondence: G. Zeidenstein, Population Council, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

55:10120 Ebanks, G. Edward. One hundred years of no increase in population size: Montserrat. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 88-3, May 1988. 25 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
"Montserrat, a small Caribbean island has maintained a relatively stable population size for the past one hundred years. The size of the population between 1881 and 1986 ranged between 10,000 and 12,000. Such stability is rare, especially for a developing society [and is affected by] net....migration loss. Indirectly also, emigration has suppressed fertility, aged the population and increased the crude death rate. Montserrat's relatively high quality of life is in part a consequence of this relative stability in the size of the population over the last one hundred years." Data are from official Montserrat sources.
Correspondence: Population Studies Centre, University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

55:10121 Miyazaki, Reijiro. Negative natural increase of population and its regional correlates. Jinkogaku Kenkyu/Journal of Population Studies, No. 9, May 1986. 71-5 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Areas of Japan that have experienced a decline in natural population growth since World War II are analyzed, and some regional trends are distinguished. Factors associated with population decline include rural-urban migration, structural changes in a region's economy, and changes in land prices.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1989-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.