Volume 54 - Number 3 - Fall 1988

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

54:30697 Balicki, Andrzej. The size of newly established cohorts of workers in the analysis of labor force fluctuations. [Liczebnosc kohorty nowo przyjetych pracownikow w badaniu plynnosci kadr.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/89, 1987. 41-9 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
A model for estimating probabilities among cohorts is described, and some problems associated with estimation methods are discussed. Consideration is given to the relationship between new entrants cohort size and the reliability of sample estimates. The geographical scope is worldwide.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30698 Baran, Alina; Gren, Jerzy; Jozwiak, Janina; Laszuk, Jozef; Zimny, Zdzislaw. Mathematical methods of demographic phenomena optimization. [Matematyczne metody optymalizacji zjawisk demograficznych.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 233, 1987. 94 pp. Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Instytut Statystyki i Demografii: Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The authors describe a methodology for calculating an optimum population in given circumstances, outline the underlying assumptions, and verify it using empirical data for Poland. Attention is given to the definition of demographic optimization and optimization procedures. Two long-term methods, one developed by Bourgeois-Pichat and one by Valkovics, are verified, as well as a short-term stochastic control model.
Correspondence: Instytut Statystyki i Demografii, Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki, Al Niepodleglosci 162, Warsaw, Poland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30699 Conlisk, John. Simple bounds for the dominant eigenvalue of a generalized Leslie matrix. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1988. 131-5, 207 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Simple bounds are presented for the dominant eigenvalue of the generalized Leslie matrix of a multiregional demographic growth model."
Correspondence: J. Conlisk, Department of Economics, University of California, La Jolla, CA 92093. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30700 Gerard, Hubert; Loriaux, Michel. Beyond the quantitative: expectations and limits of qualitative analysis in demography. Chair of Quetelet, 1985. [Au-dela du quantitatif: espoirs et limites de l'analyse qualitative en demographie. Chaire Quetelet '85.] ISBN 2-87085-152-9. 1988. 670 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CIACO Editeur: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Eng; Fre.
These are the 1985 proceedings of the annual seminar held under the auspices of the Quetelet Chair at the Catholic University of Louvain, Belgium. The theme of the conference was qualitative analysis in demographic studies, with a focus on the examination of the advantages and disadvantages of the qualitative approach to the study of demographic problems. Of the 18 papers included here, 15 are in French and 3 in English. Some disadvantages of the purely quantitative approach are first outlined. The next four papers illustrate the diversity of the qualitative approach. Eight papers consider aspects of the application of the qualitative approach in specific cases. A final section of four papers is concerned with how to combine the best of both qualitative and quantitative approaches.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30701 Hoffman, Saul D.; Duncan, Greg J. Multinomial and conditional logit discrete-choice models in demography. Demography, Vol. 25, No. 3, Aug 1988. 415-27 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Although discrete-choice statistical techniques have been used with increasing regularity in demographic analyses, McFadden's conditional logit model is less well known and seldom used. Conditional logit models are appropriate when the choice among alternatives is modeled as a function of the characteristics of the alternatives, rather than (or in addition to) the characteristics of the individual making the choice. We argue that this feature of conditional logit makes it more appropriate for estimating behavioral models. In this article, the conditional logit model is presented and compared with the more familiar multinomial logit model. The difference between the two techniques is illustrated with an analysis of the choice of marital and welfare status by divorced or separated women." Data are from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics and concern white U.S. women under age 45 who became divorced or separated between 1969 and 1982.
Correspondence: S. D. Hoffman, Department of Economics, University of Delaware, Newark, DE 19716. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30702 Horiuchi, Shiro; Preston, Samuel H. Age-specific growth rates: the legacy of past population dynamics. Demography, Vol. 25, No. 3, Aug 1988. 429-41 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Recent developments in population mathematics have focused attention on a function that is widely available but rarely examined: the set of age-specific growth rates in a population. In particular, this set of rates is sufficient for translating the current birth rate and age-specific mortality rates into the current age distribution. This growth-rate function contains all of the pertinent features of a population's demographic history that are required to relate major demographic functions for a particular period to one another. This article presents an expression for the age-specific growth rate and uses it to derive an equation for age distribution. We show how the value of the age-specific growth rate is determined by a population's demographic past and present various sets of growth rates corresponding to stylized demographic scenarios. Several noteworthy sets of growth rates observed in human populations are discussed. Finally, we explain why age-specific growth rates make it possible to determine the age distribution solely from information on current demographic conditions."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 444).
Correspondence: S. Horiuchi, Population Division, United Nations Building, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30703 Huinink, Johannes. Methods of exploratory cohort analyses. [Methoden der explorativen Kohortenanalyse.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 14, No. 1, 1988. 69-87 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"In this contribution, two methods of cohort analysis will be presented. First, the classical model approach of the age, period, and cohort (APC) analysis will be discussed....The APC analysis of the birth rates for the Federal Republic of Germany of the 1958-1982 period...will serve as an example. It is an essential deficit of this method that it does not adequately permit [the identification of] the effects of interaction of age, period or cohort membership. Therefore, another simple method of cohort analysis will be presented and explained using the same demographic example....It will be shown how this approach can contribute to an explorative overall picture of the structure of reciprocally conditioned effects of age, period, and cohort membership."
Correspondence: J. Huinink, Max-Planck-Institut fur Bildungsforschung, Lentzeallee 94, 1000 Berlin 33, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30704 Hull, Terence H. Using Brass P/F adjustments in estimates of Indonesian fertility. Population Today, Vol. 16, No. 7-8, Jul-Aug 1988. 6-7 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The author discusses some problems concerning the application of indirect methods of fertility estimation to the most recent data on fertility from the 1987 Indonesian Prevalence Survey. He cautions that recent estimates of the total fertility rate may be more a result of methodological problems than of actual changes in fertility.
Correspondence: T. H. Hull, Department of Political and Social Change, Research School of Pacific Studies, Australian National University, POB 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30705 Johnson, Robert A.; Woltman, Henry F. Evaluating census data quality using intensive reinterviews: a comparison of U.S. Census Bureau methods and Rasch methods. Sociological Methodology, Vol. 17, 1987. 185-204 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"In this paper, we consider Rasch measurement methodology as an alternative to conventional U.S. Census Bureau methodology for evaluating the quality of data obtained using different measurements of the same characteristic. Rather than assuming, like the Census approach, that respondents have true states corresponding to the categories of a questionnaire item, the Rasch approach assumes that measuring instruments and survey respondents vary continuously on one or more common dimensions called latent traits. Unlike the Census approach, the Rasch approach requires that the properties of measuring instruments be invariant across different subclasses of respondents, generating parameter estimates that are sufficient statistics for elementary discrete sampling models. The different conclusions that can be drawn from the Census and Rasch approaches are illustrated by an evaluation of questionnaire items designed to measure the limitation or prevention of work because of physical or mental disability."
Correspondence: R. A. Johnson, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Washington, D.C. 20233. Location: Princeton University Library (SSRC).

54:30706 Ledent, Jacques; Rogers, Andrei. Stable growth in native-dependent multistate population dynamics. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 2, 1988. 157-71, 207 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Users of multistate life tables and projections have recognized that the Markovian assumptions underlying such models are unduly restrictive and should be relaxed whenever data permit. Efforts to include the influences of previous occupancies have included the incorporation of place-of-birth dependence. This paper addresses the stable growth properties of such generalized multistate models. It shows how place-of-birth-specific stable growth measures can be calculated without projection simply by solving the characteristic equation. An example using Canadian data illustrates the argument."
Correspondence: J. Ledent, National Institute for Scientific Research--Urbanization, University of Quebec, Montreal, Quebec H2X 2C6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30707 Paszek, Barbara. Competitive risks models. [Modele ryzyk konkurencyjnych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/89, 1987. 51-5 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Single- and multiple-variable models are discussed, with a focus on the potential effects of demographic factors on individuals within a sample population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30708 Quesnel, Andre. The objectives and types of the qualitative approach in demographic studies undertaken in countries with incomplete statistics. [Objectifs et formes de l'approche qualitative dans les etudes demographiques menees dans les pays a statistiques incompletes.] In: Au-dela du quantitatif: espoirs et limites de l'analyse qualitative en demographie. Chaire Quetelet '85. 1988. 321-45 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Institut de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CIACO Editeur: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Fre.
The author explores possible ways of developing a qualitative approach to demographic research in developing countries. The primary objectives of such an approach are defined as the improvement of available demographic data and the identification of the role of human reproduction in the overall process of social change. The paper consists primarily of a review of how individual demographers have resolved such issues in specific cases.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30709 Salvatore, Dominick. Modeling demographic and economic dynamics. Journal of Policy Modeling, Vol. 10, No. 1, Apr 1988. 162 pp. Society for Policy Modeling: New York, New York. In Eng.
This special issue, devoted to modeling demographic and economic dynamics, is the product of a session on population growth and economic development held at the 1987 Annual Meetings of the American Economic Association. It contains six papers by different authors. The primary geographic focus is on developing countries.
Selected items will be cited in this or subsequent issues of Population Index.
Correspondence: D. Salvatore, Department of Economics, Fordham University, Fordham Road, Bronx, NY 10458. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

54:30710 Saxena, P. C.; Talwar, P. P. Recent advances in the techniques for demographic analysis. LC 87-900498. 1987. xiv, 456 pp. Himalaya Publishing House: Bombay, India. In Eng.
This is a collection of papers originally presented at a workshop on techniques of demographic analysis, sponsored by the Indian Association for the Study of Population in Bombay, India, November 2-6, 1982. "In all, 17 invited papers, included in the volume, have been grouped into three parts. In Part I (Chapters 1 to 5), the techniques of fertility analysis developed recently have been discussed. The section includes papers on the estimation of current fertility and 'birth intervals.' Part II (Chapters 6 to 9) contains papers which explicitly deal with the techniques for analysis of mortality data. The first two chapters in this section focus on the techniques of constructing 'Life Tables'....The other two papers [examine] the latest techniques for estimating infant and childhood mortality. Part III (Chapters 10 to 17) contains papers on a variety of topics in Multivariate Analysis...." The geographic scope is worldwide.
Correspondence: Himalaya Publishing House, "Ramdoot", Dr. Bhalerao Marg, Girgaon (Kelewadi), Bombay 400 004, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30711 Stoto, Michael A. Dealing with uncertainty: statistics for an aging population. American Statistician, Vol. 42, No. 2, May 1988. 103-10 pp. Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
"Uncertainty in statistics and demographic projections for aging and other policy purposes comes from four sources: differences in definitions, sampling error, nonsampling error, and scientific uncertainty. Some of these uncertainties can be reduced by proper planning and coordination, but most often decisions have to be made in the face of some remaining uncertainty. Although decision makers have a tendency to ignore uncertainty, doing so does not lead to good policy-making. Techniques for estimating and reporting on uncertainty include sampling theory, assessment of experts' subjective distributions, sensitivity analysis, and multiple independent estimates." The primary geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: M. A. Stoto, Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution Avenue, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30712 Stoto, Michael A. Estimating age-specific transition rates for population sub-groups from successive surveys: changes in adult rates of cigarette smoking. Population Studies, Vol. 42, No. 2, Jul 1988. 227-39 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"As an extension of recent results in generalized stable population theory, in this paper a new method for estimating age-specific transition rates for population sub-groups is developed, based on data from two successive demographic surveys. Simple modifications allow the method to work when the data are tabulated in irregular age groups and when the surveys are taken at irregular intervals. A test of the method based on detailed data on smoking behaviour from the 1976 and 1981 censuses of New Zealand shows that the method works well, even when the data are aggregated into a small number of irregular age groups."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1986 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 52, No. 3, Fall 1986, p. 415).
Correspondence: M. A. Stoto, Institute of Medicine, National Academy of Sciences, 2101 Constitution Avenue, Washington, D.C. 20418. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30713 Stupp, Paul W. Estimating intercensal age schedules by intracohort interpolation. Population Index, Vol. 54, No. 2, Summer 1988. 209-24 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.
"This paper describes a procedure for estimating intercensal age schedules of rates of occurrence of demographic events (birth, death, marriage) from tabulations at two points in time of a status of the population (average children ever born, persons surviving, proportion ever married) classified by age." The procedure is called iterative intracohort interpolation. The paper describes a more general version than that originally developed by Ansley J. Coale and provides a probabilistic interpretation of the age-specific rates estimated by the procedure.
Correspondence: P. W. Stupp, Carolina Population Center, 123 West Franklin, Room 305, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:30714 Volkov, A. G. Demographic trends and the laws that govern them. [Demograficheskie protsessy i ikh zakonomernosti.] LC 86-221619. 1986. 191 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a collection of papers by various authors on demographic modeling. In most cases, the models discussed are based on stable population theory. The major subject headings under which the papers are organized are demo-economic relationships, reproduction and population composition, laws of fertility, life expectancy, and population reproduction and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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