Volume 54 - Number 2 - Summer 1988

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

54:20832 Biswas, Suddendhu; Pachal, Tapan K. A multistate Markov chain model for evaluating a sterilization policy. Biometrical Journal/Biometrische Zeitschrift, Vol. 29, No. 1, 1987. 57-64 pp. Berlin, German Democratic Republic. In Eng.
"A multistate Markov chain model corresponding to varying fertility and mortality rates at different levels of surviving children of a couple was developed. Asymptotic probabilities of having a fixed number of children have been worked out." The implied geographical focus is on India.
Correspondence: S. Biswas, Department of Mathematical Statistics, University of Delhi, Delhi 110 007, India. Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, MD.

54:20833 Bloom, David E. On the nature and estimation of age, period and cohort effects in demographic data. Genus, Vol. 43, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1987. 59-68 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"This paper develops a general procedure for estimating age, period, and cohort effects in demographic data. The procedure involves structuring, mathematically, the effect of cross-cohort changes in the timing and level of a vital event on period rates of occurrence of the event. The procedure is illustrated and tested in an application to data on the first birth rates of [U.S. women from 1917 to 1980]. Overall, the empirical results provide support for the procedure. The results also provide evidence that period effects are highly age-specific and that the size of cohort effects may be substantially overestimated by models which fail to allow for the age specificity of period effects."
Correspondence: D. E. Bloom, Department of Economics, Harvard University, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20834 Liu, Laifu; Cohen, J. E. Equilibrium and local stability in a logistic matrix model for age-structured populations. Journal of Mathematical Biology, Vol. 25, No. 1, Apr 1987. 73-88 pp. Heidelberg, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
"A logistic matrix model for age-structured population dynamics is constructed. This model discretizes a continuous, density-dependent model with age structure, i.e. it is an extension of the logistic model to the case of age-dependence. We prove the existence and uniqueness of its equilibrium and give a necessary and sufficient condition for the local stability of the equilibrium."
Correspondence: L. Liu, Department of Mathematics, Beijing Normal University, Beijing, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SK).

54:20835 Nanjo, Zenji. Demographic data and spline interpolation. Jinkogaku Kenkyu/Journal of Population Studies, No. 10, May 1987. 43-53 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Five formulas of spline interpolation and their applications to demographic data are introduced. "The formulas are applied to (1) interpolating and smoothing values of life table functions....(2) interpolating births by five-year age groups of mothers into single ages....(3) interpolating cause-specific deaths by five-year age groups into single ages....[and] (4) interpolating and smoothing two-dimensional demographic data e.g. mortality rates and expectations of life by year and age."
Correspondence: Z. Nanjo, Fukushima Medical College, Fukushima City, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20836 Schoen, Robert. Modeling multigroup populations. Plenum Series on Demographic Methods and Population Analysis, ISBN 0-306-42649-8. LC 87-25714. 1988. xii, 308 pp. Plenum Press: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
This book is concerned with the application of a broad range of population models to the study of changes in the social behavior of individuals and groups over time. The primary approach is demographic rather than statistical. "Organizationally, it is divided into three parts. Part I discusses the basic, decrement-only, life table and its associated stable population. Part II examines multistate (or increment-decrement) models and provides the first comprehensive treatment of those extremely flexible and useful life table models. Part III looks at 'two-sex' models, which simultaneously incorporate the marriage or fertility behavior of males and females." The geographical focus is worldwide.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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