Volume 54 - Number 2 - Summer 1988

K. Demographic and Economic Interrelations

Studies concerned with the relations between population factors as a whole and economic aspects. Relations affecting a single demographic variable and economic factors are coded under the variable concerned and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1. Economic Development and Population

Studies concerned equally with economic and social development. Most studies on the microeconomics of the family will be found in G.2. Family and Household and cross-referenced to this division, if appropriate.

K.1.1. General Economic Development and Population

Studies on economic and social development with a worldwide emphasis, together with those with no geographical emphasis.

54:20725 Danielson, Anders. Agricultural development and demographic change: a comment on Robinson and Schutjer. Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 36, No. 3, Apr 1988. 565-72 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The authors comment on a recent article by Warren Robinson and Wayne Schutjer concerning the relationship between agricultural development and demographic change. A reply by Robinson and Schutjer is included (pp. 571-2).
For a related study by Robinson and Schutjer, published in 1983, see 51:20616.
Correspondence: A. Danielson, University of Lund, POB 117, S-221 00 Lund, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

54:20726 Dutt, Amitava K. Population pressure, capitalist development and technological change in agriculture: a model and some applications. Discussion Papers in Economics, No. 56, Oct 1986. 20 pp. Florida International University, Department of Economics: Miami, Florida. In Eng.
"This paper offers an explanation of how population growth can affect technological change in agriculture by changing its institutional structure. It argues, with the use of a simple model of an agrarian economy, that starting from a situation in which production is carried on mainly in small peasant farms, faster population growth will improve the chances of a capitalist transformation of agriculture. With capitalist farmers being technologically more dynamic than peasants and non-cultivating landlords, this will speed up technological progress. The analysis is used to understand the transformation of English agriculture in the past and the failure of such a transformation in contemporary India."
Correspondence: Department of Economics, Florida International University, Miami, FL 33199. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20727 Keita, Mohamed L. Research into the differential interrelationships among demographic, economic, and sociological variables according to the country's level of development. [Recherche des correlations differentielles entre variables demographiques, economiques et sociologiques selon le niveau de developpement des pays.] Annales de l'IFORD, No. 10, Jul 1985. 154 pp. Institut de Formation et de Recherche Demographiques [IFORD]: Yaounde, Cameroon. In Fre.
The author seeks to identify general laws governing the interrelationships among sociological, demographic, and economic variables, with the focus on structures and determinants common to a given group of countries. In the first part, data sources and methods are provided, and groups of countries are delineated according to level of development. The second part is devoted to the analysis of groups of variables. In the third part, the author studies the determinants of fertility and mortality in the different groups of countries. It is concluded that there exist demographic and socioeconomic laws that are relevant for countries according to their level of development and that global analyses, to the extent to which they ignore these laws, may be biased.
Correspondence: IFORD, Service des Publications, B. P. 1566, Yaounde, Cameroon. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20728 Kuijsten, A. C. Business demographics: a new market for demographers? [Business demographics: een nieuwe markt voor demografen?] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Dec 1987. 43-67 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses the value of business demographics for marketing and management in the private business sector. The demographic factors that are most pertinent to business planning are identified and include changes in age structure, compositions of the labor force and households, and mobility.
Correspondence: A. C. Kuijsten, Jodenbreestraat 23, 1011 NH Amsterdam, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.2. Developing Countries

General studies on the relations between population factors and economic development in developing countries. Includes studies on dependency as they relate to developing countries.

54:20729 Amjad, Rashid. Impact of workers' remittances from the Middle East on Pakistan's economy: some selected issues. Pakistan Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Winter 1986. 757-85 pp. Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
The author argues that "no factor has more dramatically affected the domestic employment situation and the balance-of-payments position [in Pakistan than] the outflow of contract workers and inflow of workers' remittances from [the Middle East]." The relationship between workers' remittances and national income accounts is examined in order to better understand the effect of migrant remittances on Pakistan's overall economic development. The peak period of Middle East migration (1976-1983) is outlined in detail. A comment by Meekal Aziz Ahmed is included (pp. 783-5).
Correspondence: R. Amjad, Senior Development Economist, ILO/ARTEP, Asian Development Programme, New Delhi, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20730 Bazhenova, E. New trends in family formation in the People's Republic of China. [Novye tendentsii v razvitii sem'i v KNR.] Narodonaselenie, 1987. 265-85 pp. Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The author presents a broad review of economic development in the People's Republic of China and its effects on the country's population growth. The focus is on government population policies and on changes in the function and size of the family. Also considered are the constitutional rights of women, the interaction of husband and wife within the family, and the relationship between parents and their children after the marriage of the children.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20731 Blanchet, Didier. A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model: consequences for the empirical relationship between economic growth and population growth in LDC's. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 1, No. 1, 1988. 79-99, 123-4 pp. New York, New York/London, England. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"A stochastic version of the Malthusian trap model relating the growth rate of income per capita to the population growth rate of a given country is described. This model is applied to the a priori evaluation of the cross-sectional correlation between these two growth rates under two additional assumptions: i) the relations in the model at national levels include country-specific and time-invariant random components, and ii) these growth rates are measured with a certain degree of temporal aggregation. It is shown that these two assumptions can explain near-zero correlations between the two growth rates even if there exists a strongly negative effect of population growth on economic growth. However it is not clear whether these assumptions fully explain such insignificant correlations. Indeed, the implementation of the model is complicated by the structural shifts which are likely to occur in the equations over the course of the demographic transition."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20732 Bloom, David E.; Freeman, Richard B. Economic development and the timing and components of population growth. Center for Population Studies Discussion Paper, No. 87-7, [1987]. 30, [12] pp. Harvard University, Center for Population Studies: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper examines the relationship between population growth and economic growth in developing countries from 1965 to 1985. Our results indicate that developing countries were able to shift their labor force from low-productivity agriculture to the higher-productivity industry and service sectors, and to increase productivity within those sectors, despite the rapid growth of their populations. We also find that at given rates of population growth, income growth is related to the time path of population growth and that population growth due to high birth and death rates is associated with slower income growth than population growth due to relatively low birth and death rates. Hence, the timing and components of population growth are important elements in the process of economic development."
Correspondence: Center for Population Studies, Harvard University, 9 Bow Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20733 Gille, Halvor. Social and economic implications. In: The World Fertility Survey: an assessment, edited by John Cleland, Chris Scott, and David Whitelegge. 1987. 986-1,010 pp. Oxford University Press: New York, New York/Oxford,England. In Eng.
The author summarizes the World Fertility Survey's contribution to the process of economic and social development planning in developing countries. Topics covered include socioeconomic factors in fertility decline, family planning, age at marriage, breast-feeding, and infant and child health. The author concludes that "the World Fertility Survey has made important contributions to the planning, implementation and monitoring of health care, education, family planning and related programmes. In many developing countries survey findings have taken some of the guesswork out of policy-making and programme implementation and evaluation in the field of population."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20734 Heilig, Gerhard; Otto, Johannes. Development in Africa: population, food, economy. Lectures at the meeting of the study group "Demography of Developing Countries" of the German Society for Population Studies on the subject of the demographic aspects of central development problems in sub-Saharan Africa, October 8-9 1987, in Kiedrich. [Entwicklung in Afrika? Bevolkerung, Ernahrung, Wirtschaft. Vortrage auf der Tagung des Arbeitskreises "Demographie der Entwicklungslander" der Deutschen Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft zum Thema: Demographische Aspekte zentraler Entwicklungsprobleme in Afrika sudlich der Sahara, am 8./9. Oktober 1987 in Kiedrich.] Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 58, 1988. 149 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This report contains six studies presented at a conference on population and development in sub-Saharan Africa, held in 1987 in Kiedrich, Federal Republic of Germany. Data are from the Food and Agriculture Organization, the World Bank, and the U.N. Population Division. The papers are concerned with trends and perspectives of demographic development in black Africa; population policy in black African nations; ecological problems of tropical agriculture and carrying capacity; demographic factors related to malnutrition; the economic and demographic aspects of female labor force participation; and aspects of the structural consequences of primary health care using a case study for Benin. It is noted that in general the situation of the population is worsening. Some data for other developing African and non-African countries are presented for purposes of comparison.
Correspondence: Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung, Postfach 5528, 6200 Wiesbaden, Federal Republic of Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20735 Kelley, Allen C. Population pressures, saving, and investment in the third world: some puzzles. Economic Development and Cultural Change, Vol. 36, No. 3, Apr 1988. 449-64 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
The author examines the analytical and empirical basis for arguments concerning the adverse impact of rapid population growth on the rate of economic development in developing countries. He concludes that "the adverse impact of population growth on savings, investment, and consequently on economic growth must be qualified on analytical grounds and, moreover, that the existing empirical evidence does not persuasively show that the savings/investment and population growth connections have been quantitatively important."
Correspondence: A. C. Kelley, Duke University, Durham, NC 27706. Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

54:20736 Luzon, Jose L. Economy, population, and territory in Cuba (1899-1983). [Economia, poblacion y territorio en Cuba (1899-1983).] ISBN 84-7232-418-4. 1987. 341 pp. Instituto de Cooperacion Iberoamericana, Ediciones Cultura Hispanica: Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
This study is concerned with the relationship between economic development and population growth in Cuba from independence in 1899 to 1983. The first two chapters deal with cycles in sugar production and the development of the infrastructure. A chapter on population growth and structure follows. Other chapters are concerned with spatial distribution and the development of the urban system in the prerevolutionary period. Part 2 focuses on the period following Castro's revolution, considering the same demographic topics and also examining the rural population and rural-urban migration.
Location: New York Public Library.

54:20737 Piche, Victor. Demography and underdevelopment. [Demographie et sous-developpement.] Collection de Tires a Part, No. 233, [1987]. [5] pp. Universite de Montreal, Departement de Demographie: Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
This is an overview of the interrelationships between demographic factors and underdevelopment and is based on findings from case studies of selected countries in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. Demographic factors are discussed in light of the labor force, social structure, historical context, and family unit. Attention is given to aspects of fertility, mortality, and migration and to demographic responses to changing socioeconomic conditions.
This paper is reprinted from Interface (Montreal, Canada), Vol. 8, No. 3, May-Jun 1987, pp. 33-7.
Correspondence: Departement de Demographie, Universite de Montreal, CP 6128, Succursale, A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20738 Sadik, Nafis. Population--central to development. Populi, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1987. 4-9 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses six broad categories of population issues of current concern in Asia from the perspective of the UNFPA. The focus is on the relationship between population dynamics and economic development. Attention is given to current and anticipated developments with regard to population growth, urbanization, the aging of the population, migration, women's status, and health and family planning.
Correspondence: N. Sadik, United Nations Fund for Population Activities, 220 East 42nd Street, 19th Floor, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20739 Veras, Renato P.; Ramos, Luiz R.; Kalache, Alexandre. The increase of the elderly population in Brazil: transformation of and consequences for society. [Crescimento da populacao idosa no Brasil: transformacoes e consequencias na sociedade.] Revista de Saude Publica, Vol. 21, No. 3, Jun 1987. 225-33 pp. Sao Paulo, Brazil. In Por. with sum. in Eng.
The socioeconomic changes occurring in Brazil in conjunction with demographic aging are described, and their consequences for the elderly are assessed. Factors considered include urbanization, rural-urban migration, the separation of the elderly from their supporting families, the decline in the social status of the elderly, and the implications of longer life expectancy.
For related studies by Ramos et al. and Kalache et al., see elsewhere in this issue.
Correspondence: R. P. Veras, Instituto de Medicina Social, Universidade do Estado do Rio de Janeiro, Rua Sao Francisco Xavier 524, 20550 Rio de Janeiro, RJ, Brazil. Location: New York Academy of Medicine.

54:20740 Yang, Quanhe. The aging of China's population: perspectives and implications. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 3, No. 1, Mar 1988. 55-74 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"China's efforts to accelerate the pace of modernization emphasize the promotion of economic development and the reduction of its population growth through the adoption of a one-child per family policy. However, that policy has implications for the eventual aging of the country's population. This article reviews the changes in the status of the elderly, explores the changes in size of the elderly population, and various related social and policy implications." Topics considered include socioeconomic changes, underlying population dynamics, the current situation of the elderly, some international comparisons, implications of aging, planning for support of the elderly, health care, living arrangements and family support, retirement, and the status of the widowed, divorced, and unmarried in the elderly population.
Correspondence: Q. Yang, Department of Demography, Australian National University, POB 4, Canberra ACT 2601, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.1.3. Developed Countries

Studies on the relations between population and economic factors as they affect the developed world. Also includes studies on the economic effects of a stationary or declining population, the effects of aging on the economy, retirement, and problems of economic dependency in developed countries.

54:20741 Aperyam, Vladimir. Population, economics and politics: the socio-economic development of the European members of the CMEA. Real Socialism: Theory and Practice, 1987. 270 pp. Progress Publishers: Moscow, USSR. In Eng.
This study, translated from the original Russian, examines the relationships among economics, politics, and population in the Communist European countries, including the USSR, belonging to the Council for Mutual Economic Assistance [CMEA]. The focus is on the impact of labor force trends on economic development and how economic developments affect the increasing efficiency of use of available labor resources and employment patterns. The implications for population policy are considered.
Correspondence: Progress Publishers, 17 Zubovsky Boulevard, 119847 Moscow, USSR. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20742 Blanchet, Didier. Is a partially funded pension system able to counteract the consequences of aging? [Un systeme de retraite mixte par capitalisation et par repartition permet-il de corriger les effets du vieillissement?] Population, Vol. 43, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1988. 77-102 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper compares the behaviours of a pay-as-you-go and mixed (partially funded) pension systems under the demographic conditions which are likely to prevail in France during the next century (under three assumptions concerning future fertility). The analysis is first carried out in partial equilibrium, with all macro-economic parameters being held constant, then in a general equilibrium framework, with the assumption that funding, by modifying capital accumulation, will affect both wages and interest rates. In such a case, funding is better if the 'natural' savings ratio (i.e. savings which are observed when the pension system is purely pay-as-you-go) is low. If this natural savings ratio is higher and corresponds to its golden rule value, then both systems are equivalent."
Correspondence: D. Blanchet, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20743 Dooghe, G. The aging of the population in Europe. [Een verouderd Europa.] Bevolking en Gezin, No. 2, Dec 1987. 69-81 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"Based on Eurostat data, a picture of the aging process in 12 European countries [is] given. Compared to the U.S. and the Soviet Union, the natural population increase in Europe is rather small." Aging trends are compared, with particular attention to the increasing proportion of the very old in the elderly population. "The article also contains an overview of the differences in life expectancy [among] several countries; it stresses the predominance of elderly women and it gives some data about the elderly population according to marital status." The author comments on the anticipated demographic situation up to the year 2000.
Correspondence: G. Dooghe, CBGS, Ministerie van de Vlaamse Gemeenschap, Nijverheidsstraat, 37, B 1040 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20744 Ducharme, Pierre. Demography and social security: the case of public pension systems. [Demographie et securite sociale: le cas des regimes publics de pensions.] Collection de Tires a Part, No. 234, [1987]. [4] pp. Universite de Montreal, Departement de Demographie: Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
Anticipated problems for the pension systems of Canada and Quebec as a result of Canada's demographic aging are outlined. Suggested changes to avoid the difficulties are discussed. The author's perception is that the adjustments necessary to address the aging crisis will be no greater than those entailed by the baby boom of the 1950s and 1960s.
This paper is reprinted from Perception (Ottawa, Canada), Vol. 10, No. 5, May-Aug 1987, pp. 18-21.
Correspondence: Departement de Demographie, Universite de Montreal, CP 6128, Succursale A, Montreal, Quebec H3C 3J7, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20745 Fortin, Bernard; Fortin, Pierre. Economic growth and long-term population decline: is the optimism of the pure neoclassical model justified? [Croissance economique et decroissance demographique a long terme: l'optimisme du modele neoclassique pur est-il justifie?] Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1987. 171-86 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
"A key prediction of Solow's neoclassical economic growth model is that in the long run standards of living would increase if population growth slowed down. That this conclusion is fragile is illustrated through a numerical model of the Canadian economy that reaches the opposite verdict through taking account of greater old age dependency, increased government expenditures related to the age structure, and reduced savings propensities. [It is argued that] there is no substitute to a finer theoretical and empirical investigation of the behaviour of the particular society under study."
Correspondence: B. Fortin, Departement d'Economique, Universite Laval, Cite Universitaire, Quebec, Quebec G1K 7P4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20746 Heller, Peter S.; Hemming, Richard; Kohnert, Peter W. Aging and social expenditure in the major industrial countries, 1980-2025. International Monetary Fund Occasional Paper, No. 47, ISBN 0-939934-68-X. LC 86-20835. Sep 1986. viii, 76 pp. International Monetary Fund: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper examines the impact of prospective demographic trends on the level and structure of social expenditure by the governments of the seven major industrial countries...through the year 2025. It attempts to place these demographic factors in perspective with the other factors likely to influence the growth of social expenditure. It also reviews the key policy issues likely to emerge, both at an aggregate and a sectoral level, and the types of policies countries have initiated in trying to cope with the effects of these demographic trends. The focus is on government expenditure in the different social sectors....This paper is based on the results of detailed studies by the [International Monetary] Fund's Fiscal Affairs Department...." Social expenditure programs for pensions, medical care, education, unemployment insurance, and family benefits are considered. The countries studied are Canada, France, the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20747 International Labour Office [ILO] (Geneva, Switzerland). Fourth European Regional Conference, Geneva, September 1987. Report II. Demographic development and social security. ISBN 92-2-105992-8. 1987. iv, 100 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng.
This report is an examination of the relationship between social security and demographic trends, with the primary geographic focus on the situation in Europe. It emphasizes the inevitability of demographic aging while examining probable demographic developments up to the year 2025. Chapters are included on social security measures designed to support and strengthen the family, income maintenance for the elderly, and the impact of aging on the cost of providing health care.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20748 Koch, Heleni. Population and innovation: the effects of demographic factors on invention and innovation. [Bevolkerung und Neuerungsaktivitat: Auswirkungen demographischer Faktoren auf Invention und Innovation.] Ifo-Studien zur Bevolkerungsokonomie, No. 5, ISBN 3-88512-054-2. 1987. vi, 219 pp. Ifo-Institut fur Wirtschaftsforschung: Munich, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The author examines the relationship between selected demographic factors and innovation in recent German history. Population size, population density, age and family structure, population growth, and demographic and economic variables are studied in terms of how they diminish or increase the creativity leading to invention, innovation, and progress. Tabular data are primarily for West Germany during the twentieth century and illustrate the relationship between the variables and the volume of patent applications.
Location: New York Public Library.

54:20749 Maruo, Naomi. The impact of population ageing on the social security expenditure and economic growth in Japan. Jinkogaku Kenkyu/Journal of Population Studies, No. 10, May 1987. 7-24 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng. with sum. in Jpn.
The author considers the impact of demographic aging in Japan on the social security system and on economic growth. It is argued that "First of all, as the cost of social security (including social services) increases remarkably at the earlier stage of ageing, the disposable (after tax) income and private consumption of the present labour force generation tend to increase at a lower growth rate than that of the GNP....Secondly if pension systems are based on terminal funding schemes, the ageing of the population increases savings (net increase of the amount of the pension funds) at the earlier stage of the ageing of the population. Thirdly, there is a time lag between the increase of social security benefits and the decrease in the personal savings ratio. The high ratio of savings and the shortage of aggregate demand as well as the high pressure for export in...recent Japan can partly be attributed to the above factors." Possible future economic scenarios as demographic ageing in Japan proceeds are described, and policies to avert anticipated problems are outlined.
Correspondence: N. Maruo, Chuo University, 742-1 Higashinakano, Hachioji-City, Tokyo 192-03, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20750 Novitskii, A. G.; Shapiro, V. D. Demographic aging of the population. [Demograficheskoe starenie naseleniya.] In: Demograficheskoe razvitie v SSSR, edited by L. L. Rybakovskii. Demografiya: Problemy i Perspektivy, 1985. 82-94 pp. Mysl': Moscow, USSR. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
Trends in demographic aging in the USSR are analyzed, with a focus on the possible socioeconomic consequences. Particular attention is paid to the estimation of the social and economic effects of pensioners' employment and the organizational factors favoring economic activity among the retired population.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

54:20751 Seward, Shirley B. Demographic change and the Canadian economy: an overview. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1987. 279-99 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The purpose of this paper is to explore the interrelationships between demographic change and the Canadian economy, and to discuss the implications for public policy. The paper discusses recent demographic trends and indicates that some of these trends can be projected with reasonable confidence to the end of the century. It is expected that the rate of growth of the population and labour force will continue to decline, that further aging of the population and labour force will occur and that the proportion of elderly members of the population will increase as the proportion of young members decreases. Furthermore, if current trends continue, the rate of female labour force participation may continue to increase....The paper concludes that while there is a reasonable understanding of demographic-economic interrelations at the macro level, there remain a number of gaps in knowledge at the sectoral, regional and household levels which limit our capacity to develop appropriate policies."
Correspondence: S. B. Seward, Institute for Research on Public Policy, Ottawa, Ontario, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20752 Skoglund, Tor; Stordahl, Erik; Sorensen, Knut O. The main features of economic and demographic development in the counties since 1960. [Hovedtrekk ved den okonomiske og demografiske utviklingen i fylkene etter 1960.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 88/3, ISBN 82-537-2572-8. 1988. 81 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
The authors investigate trends in industry, population, and the economy at the county level in Norway since 1960. They address three main areas: economic development and employment, population trends and migration, and labor force participation and unemployment. Data from official sources are presented separately for the counties and for the whole country, and regional trends are identified and explained.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20753 Watson, William G. Demographic change, provincial fiscal behaviour, and regional economic growth. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1987. 209-22 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The paper reviews the empirical literature on each of the causal links of a model of regional demographics and growth that operates as follows: (1) Demographic differences across regions give rise to differences in tax rates. (2) Differences in tax rates cause interregional migration. (3) Interregional migration causes 'unfavourable' demographic effects in regions people leave. (4) These effects in turn reduce economic growth, both directly through reduced productivity of the labour force, and indirectly as tax rates rise even further in order to support proportionately greater public expenditures from a reduced tax base. The paper concludes that such interconnections should be studied within the context of a general-equilibrium model." The geographic focus is on Canada.
Correspondence: W. G. Watson, Department of Economics, McGill University, 845 Sherbrooke Street West, Montreal, Quebec H3A 2T5, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.2. Population Growth and Natural Resources

Studies on the environment, quality of life, conservation, food production, etc., and their interrelations with population factors.

54:20754 Barrett, Michael; Miles, Simon; Regier, Henry; Winter, Chris. Potential environmental impacts of changes in population size, age, and geographic distribution. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 14, No. 2, 1987. 261-77 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper summarizes the linkages between demographic development and environmental conditions that are of consequence for economic and social well-being. Environmental impacts are examined relative to: agriculture, forestry, water resources management, wildlife and natural areas, waste management, and land-use conflicts. Key conclusions are that Canadians are depleting their environmental capital is an unsustainable manner; need to rehabilitate their degraded ecosystems; and will succeed in shifting to rehabilitative and sustainable development (from conventional exploitive development) only without a major population increase."
Correspondence: M. Barrett, University of Toronto, Toronto, Ontario M5S 1A1, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20755 Hendry, Peter. Food and population: beyond five billion. Population Bulletin, Vol. 43, No. 2, Apr 1988. 40 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is an overview of current and projected relationships between food supplies and population growth worldwide. Among the topics discussed are factors affecting increased food production, environmental degradation, the impact of urbanization, and access to food. According to the author, "in the longer term, higher dietary levels per capita for a world population double that of the present (U.N. medium variant of 10.2 billion in 2100) would imply at least a tripling of demand for dietary staples. But more intensive cultivation would place natural resources, many already degraded, under much greater stress....The principle cause of hunger and malnutrition is poverty: the extent of popular access to gainful employment, to arable land, to suitable technologies determines nutritional status more than aggregate food production."
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 777 14th Street N.W., Washington, D.C. 20005. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20756 Houston, Perdita. Women advise on global conservation. Populi, Vol. 14, No. 4, 1987. 30-7 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author summarizes the themes of the Women and the World Conservation Strategy Workshop, held in November 1987 in Gland, Switzerland. This seminar, organized by the International Union for Conservation of Nature, focused on the key role women play as managers of natural resources in developing countries.
Correspondence: P. Houston, Population and Sustainable Development Programme, International Union for Conservation of Nature, CH-1196 Gland, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20757 Huda, K. S. Feeding Asia's millions. Populi, Vol. 14, No. 3, 1987. 22-31 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Food shortages in developing countries and strategies to address the problem are examined using a case study of Bangladesh. The complex interrelationships among modern agricultural technology, employment, migration, poverty, and inequality are discussed, and policy options are outlined.
Correspondence: K. S. Huda, Association of Development Agencies, Dhaka, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20758 Kane, Penny. The demography of famine. Genus, Vol. 43, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1987. 43-58 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"Theories of famine causation and models of the stages of famine are discussed here in relation to the demographic consequences of famines. Demographic data from famines in Europe, South Asia and China are assessed for their applicability to the models in an effort to provide a fuller framework for the study of famine demography. It is argued that such study may shed light on demographic decision-making in normal periods in disaster-prone areas, besides being of importance in parts of the world where vulnerability to famine may be increasing."
Correspondence: P. Kane, Centre for Population Studies, University College, POB 78, Cardiff, CF1, 1XL, Wales. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20759 Rao, N. Baskara; Sahu, Mahesh K. Impact of irrigation on migration and work participation: a case study of an irrigation project in India. Demography India, Vol. 16, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1987. 90-108 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The authors examine "how the creation of irrigation facilities leads to certain economic changes which in turn influence migration and work participation. The results of this study are based on a field survey conducted in 1981 [in India] in two villages irrigated by the Hirakud Project Canal and two dry villages, covering about 2,550 households in all." It is observed that irrigation increased yield per acre, crop intensity, the demand for agricultural labor, and farm incomes. Evidence is also found of subsequent caste differentials in female labor force participation among farm households. The relationship between rural development projects and policies concerning urbanization and rural out-migration is noted.
Correspondence: N. B. Rao, Institute for Social and Economic Change, Bangalore-560 072, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

K.3. Employment and Labor Force Participation

Studies of employment and labor force statistics that are of demographic relevance. Includes studies of the labor force (employment status, occupation, and industry) and of the relations among employment, labor force participation, and population factors. Studies on the effect of female labor force participation on fertility are coded under F.1. General Fertility and cross-referenced here.

54:20760 Calhoun, Charles A.; Espenshade, Thomas J. Childbearing and wives' foregone earnings. Population Studies, Vol. 42, No. 1, Mar 1988. 5-37 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This paper combines multi-state life-table analysis and the human capital model of wages to derive new estimates of the impact of children on hours of market work and earnings for American women aged 15 to 55. Panel data from the National Longitudinal Surveys of Labor Market Experience are used to estimate multi-state tables of working life and to assess the impact of fertility on female labour force behaviour. Potential earnings based on a human capital wage model are combined with the working life histories implied by the life-table analysis to estimate opportunity expenditures (i.e. the money value of foregone employment opportunities) associated with different childbearing patterns. The impacts of race, school enrollment, educational attainment, marital status, marital status changes, birth cohort and fertility are considered."
It is found that "(1) with identical childbearing patterns, white women forego roughly five times as much as black women in market earnings between the ages of 15 and 55--approximately $25,000 per birth for white women, versus $5,000 per birth for black women in 1981 dollars; (2) foregone hours of market work per birth are two to three times higher for white women than for black women--approximately 1,500 to 3,000 hours per birth for white women, compared with 600 to 1,000 hours per birth for black women; (3) opportunity expenditures for white women and more educated black women have been declining over time; (4) opportunity expenditures on children are roughly proportional to the number of births, for women of similar background and labour market experience; and (5) it is the labour supply reductions immediately following each birth that contribute most to observed opportunity expenditures, whereas the marginal effect of total family size is small by comparison."
Correspondence: C. A. Calhoun, Urban Institute, 2100 M Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20037. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20761 Halli, S. S.; Rao, K. V. Dynamics of fertility and labour force participation of Canadian women in 1971 and 1981: a cohort approach. Journal of Institute of Economic Research, Vol. 22, No. 2, 1987. 1-21 pp. Karnataka, India. In Eng.
The authors analyze the relationship between labor force participation and fertility in Canada using data from the Public Use Sample Tapes from the 1971 and 1981 censuses. Factors considered include age, religion, educational status, and marital status. The authors conclude that "labour force participation of women seems to have less influence on fertility compared to [the] fertility effect on labour force participation."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20762 Joshi, Heather; Owen, Susan. How long is a piece of elastic? The measurement of female activity rates in British censuses, 1951-1981. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 11, No. 1, Mar 1987. 55-74 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The available evidence concerning the growth of female labor force participation in the United Kingdom since World War II is reviewed. The authors first discuss changing concepts, methods, and results in British censuses from 1951 to 1981. They then reconstruct female labor force trends to take into account the biases identified. They propose a series of economic activity and employee rates for females aged 20-59 and for the proportion of part-time female employees.
Correspondence: H. Joshi, Centre for Population Studies, London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, Keppel Street, London WC1E 7HT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

54:20763 Klinger, Andras. Hungary's retirement life table, 1984. [A magyar nyugdijazasi-halandosagi tabla, 1984.] Statisztikai Szemle, Vol. 66, No. 1, Jan 1988. 5-14 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
"Multivariate tables [for Hungary] present mortality and retirement of [the economically] active male and female subpopulations as well as the mortality order of [the] retired population postulating the probabilities valid for 1984. The author points out large differences in mortality order by sexes at the age of retirement and among pensioners. The computation not only shows the present situation but also provides a basis for the reform of the pension system...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20764 Larson, Eric M. Patterns of labor absorption by occupation in the Dominican Republic. International Journal of Sociology and Social Policy, Vol. 7, No. 4, 1987. 67-77 pp. Hull, England. In Eng.
"The purpose of this article is to describe and analyze patterns of labor absorption by occupation in the Dominican Republic using national population census data." The author develops a measure that facilitates the identification of patterns of labor absorption into various occupations. The results, based on data for the period 1970-1981, show sharp differentials by sex and zone. It is found that the service sector is absorbing more workers but that agriculture is not, even in rural areas.
Correspondence: E. M. Larson, Program Evaluation and Methodology Division, U.S. General Accounting Office, Washington, D.C. 20548. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20765 Liu, Yugui. The utilization and exploitation of labour force resource in the Jiangsu province. Population Research, Vol. 4, No. 2, Apr 1987. 10-6 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
Labor force trends in the province of Jiangsu, China, are analyzed based on census data and data from the 1-in-1,000 survey conducted in the province in 1985. The size, age structure, educational status, and spatial distribution of the working-age population are examined. Reasons for the province's high employment rate and suggestions for changes in labor force management are outlined.
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 4, 1986.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20766 Lowe, R. J. Comparing 1981 and 1986 census labour force employment and unemployment data. New Zealand Population Review, Vol. 13, No. 2, Nov 1987. 27-34 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
The difficulties involved in comparing 1981 and 1986 census data on the labor force in New Zealand are discussed. It is concluded that "measuring changes in labour force participation rates between the 1981 and 1986 censuses is likely to be particularly risky. Using the results to extrapolate labour force participation trends is likely to be quite dangerous, though more so in some age groups than others and in some regions than others."
Correspondence: R. J. Lowe, Town and Country Planning Directorate (Policy Division), Ministry of Works and Development, Wellington, New Zealand. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20767 Moon, Chang-Jin. Subjective economic status, sex role attitudes, fertility, and mother's work. Journal of Population and Health Studies, Vol. 7, No. 1, Jul 1987. 177-96 pp. Seoul, Korea, Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Kor.
This study uses multiple ordinary least squares regression to examine the effect of subjective economic status, attitudes concerning sex roles, and fertility on female labor force participation in the United States. Data are from the 1985 General Social Survey. The results suggest that subjective income status is the major factor affecting women's employment outside the home.
Correspondence: C.-J. Moon, Administrative Officer, Ministry of Health and Social Affairs, Seoul, Republic of Korea. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20768 Moy, Joyanna. An analysis of unemployment and other labor market indicators in 10 countries. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 111, No. 4, Apr 1988. 39-50 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Current trends in unemployment and other labor market indicators in 10 developed, market-economy countries are reviewed. "Unemployment rates declined in North America, Sweden, and the United Kingdom during 1987, but rose in Japan, France, and Italy and remained historically high in Australia, Germany, and the Netherlands." The author notes that total employment increased in all 10 countries in 1986 and in all but France and Italy in 1987. Consideration is given to the availability of alternative data sources and to data comparability.
Correspondence: J. Moy, Division of Foreign Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

54:20769 Nakano, Eiko. The evaluation of married women's desire for employment. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 180, Oct 1986. 52-6 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Changing trends in the employment-seeking behavior of women in Japan are discussed, with the focus on problems related to the estimation of female labor force participation. The factors affecting female employment are analyzed, including marriage duration, age, and stage of growth of children.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20770 Nakano, Eiko. Work courses among Japanese married women in the parity progression process. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 183, Jul 1987. 34-45 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
Employment patterns among married women in Japan are examined using data from the 1984 Demographic Survey on Married Women's Labor Force Participation. Three distinct patterns are identified, two of which fit an M-shaped curve describing the ratio of employment over successive ages. Part of the curve is explained on the basis of changes in worker status in the course of parity progression. A comparison is made between the work courses of married women with two children in the marriage cohorts of 1955-1964, 1965-1974, and 1975-1984.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20771 Rendon, Teresa; Salas, Carlos. The evolution of employment in Mexico: 1895-1980. [Evolucion del empleo en Mexico: 1895-1980.] Estudios Demograficos y Urbanos, Vol. 2, No. 2, May-Aug 1987. 189-230, 381 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This paper analyzes the changes both the level of employment and its structure (according to the different economic sectors) underwent between 1895 and 1980 in Mexico. The analysis is based on the employment figures which appear in different censuses....Not only does this paper point out the long-term tendencies of global and sectorial employment, but it also makes evident the existence of three distinct phases within the period mentioned above....In each of these three phases, employment acquires distinctive characteristics [regarding] its rhythm of growth and its structure according to spheres of employment....The authors point out the existence of some long-term tendencies present in the changes that have occurred both in the volume and in the composition of employment. They also pose a number of questions in relation to what caused some of the changes employment has undergone during the period analyzed."
Correspondence: C. Salas, Division de Estudios de Posgrado, Facultad de Economia, Universidad Nacional Autonoma de Mexico, Ciudad Universitaria, Alvaro Obregon, 04510 Mexico City, DF, Mexico. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20772 Shank, Susan E. Women and the labor market: the link grows stronger. Monthly Labor Review, Vol. 111, No. 3, Mar 1988. 3-8 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The labor force participation of U.S. women aged 25-54 is examined using official data. Trends in female employment during the period 1946-1987 by sex, age, ethnic group, and marital status are outlined. Changes in the nature and extent of paid employment among women of all age, race, and marital status groups are highlighted. The author projects a slower rate of increase in female labor force participation rates between 1986 and 2000 and a narrowing of the gap between male and female rates.
Correspondence: S. E. Shank, Division of Labor Force Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Washington, D.C. 20212. Location: Princeton University Library (FST).

54:20773 van der Wijst, Ton. Developments in the age structure of the labour force by industry and by occupation: an international comparison for some selected countries of the Economic Commission for Europe. Working Papers of the NIDI, No. 74, Dec 1987. ix, 66 pp. Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper reviews the changing age distribution of the labour force by industry and by occupation in some selected countries in Europe and North America. The period considered regards the years 1970-1982." Consideration is also given to future changes in the age structure of the labor force.
Correspondence: NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20774 van der Wijst, Ton. Recent and future changes in the age structure of the Dutch working population by industrial division and by occupational group. Working Papers of the NIDI, No. 75, Dec 1987. ix, 66 pp. Netherlands Interuniversity Demographic Institute [NIDI]: The Hague, Netherlands. In Eng.
The changing age structure of the Dutch labor force in the period 1971-1985 is analyzed by industry and occupation. The author notes that the changes in the age structure of the female labor force in this period were particularly significant. Consideration is given to probable future changes in the labor force.
Correspondence: NIDI, P.O. Box 11650, Lange Houtstraat 19, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20775 Veron, Jacques. Women's employment and family structure: what are the relationships? [Activite feminine et structures familiales: quelle dependance?] Population, Vol. 43, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1988. 103-20 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The existence of a causal relationship between women's labor force participation and their attitudes toward marriage and family is examined using French census data. "During the period between the censuses of 1962 and 1982, striking changes occurred in France: marriage and birth rates declined, divorce rates increased as did women's labour force participation rates and the traditional 'working-life cycle' was broken. However, no relationship can be established between the demographic variables and behaviour in the labour market. An analysis based on a standard family structure indicates that even if there had been no changes during the period, the number of employed women would have been roughly the same....Changes in family structure and the desire to engage in a gainful occupation are not strongly correlated."
Correspondence: J. Veron, Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, 27 Rue du Commandeur, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20776 West, Patrick C.; Blahna, Dale J.; Fly, J. Mark. The unemployment impacts of the population turnaround in northern lower Michigan. Rural Sociology, Vol. 52, No. 4, Winter 1987. 522-31 pp. Bozeman, Montana. In Eng.
"We examine the effects of the population turnaround on unemployment rates in a nine-county region in northern lower Michigan. Data from census reports and a mailed questionnaire were used to test the following competing hypotheses about unemployment impacts: (1) labor-market infusion (or positive employment impacts), (2) labor-market overload (or negative impact on unemployment and increased competition for jobs), and (3) a mixed model in which the balance of positive and negative impacts differs depending on occupational status. Our major finding is that blue-collar persons (both newcomers and long-term residents) experienced much higher unemployment rates than white-collar persons. In other words, for white-collar strata, labor-market infusion is supported; for blue-collar strata, labor-market overload is supported."
Correspondence: P. C. West, School of Natural Resources, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-1115. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

54:20777 Yamanaka, Keiko. Labor force participation of Asian American women: ethnicity, work, and the family. Pub. Order No. DA8725833. 1987. 228 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"This study analyzes the higher than average rates of labor force participation among six groups of Asian American females using data from the 1980 U.S. Population Census. The sample (N = 62,334) consists of married women of working age (25-64) and includes both native- and foreign-born Japanese, Chinese, Filipinos, Koreans, Asian Indians, and Vietnamese. As the reference category, a comparable group of non-Hispanic white women is chosen....The conceptual model incorporates ethnic employment opportunity structures as the key factor of Asian wives' participation, in addition to the conventional human capital and family life cycle frameworks. Hypotheses are tested with OLS multiple regression technique separately for each ethnic and nativity group....This analysis provides a piece of evidence that the ethnic enclave opportunity structures have positive impact, albeit modest, on work rates of ethnic minority and immigrant women."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Cornell University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 48(9).

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