Volume 53 - Number 3 - Fall 1987

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

53:30082 Mielke, James H.; Pitkanen, Kari J.; Jorde, Lynn B.; Fellman, Johan O.; Eriksson, Aldur W. Demographic patterns in the Aland Islands, Finland, 1750-1900. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 25, 1987. 57-74 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
The authors provide information concerning general demographic patterns in the Aland Islands, Finland, from the mid-eighteenth century to the beginning of the twentieth century. The primary sources used are parish records. Estimates of life expectancy at birth and at age five, gross reproduction rates, and total fertility rates are calculated for five-year intervals for the period 1751-1900 and are compared with similar data for mainland Finland and Sweden. Annual variations in crude birth, marriage, and death rates are examined, and years of crisis or extreme behavior are identified.
Author's address: Department of Anthropology, University of Kansas, Lawrence, KS 66045.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30083 Ngondo a Pitshandenge, Iman. Population dynamics in the Republic of Zaire. [La dynamique de la population de la Republique du Zaire.] Travaux et Recherches Demographiques Document, No. 3, Apr 1987. 40 pp. Universite de Kinshasa, Faculte des Sciences Economiques, Departement de Demographie: Kinshasa, Zaire. In Fre.
The author presents a historical overview of demographic trends in Zaire. After a brief discussion of the situation prior to the 1908 annexation by Belgium, developments during the years 1908-1960 are traced, with consideration given to population size, annual growth rates, sex ratios, child-woman ratios, internal migration, and spatial distribution. Data from a 1957 demographic sample survey and the 1970 and 1984 censuses are compared to show regional trends within Zaire over time in population size, sex ratio, and proportion of foreigners. Specific attention is paid to changes in fertility and mortality during the period studied. The final section includes a summary of the principal elements in Zaire's demographic history and comments concerning the inaccuracy of early estimates of the country's population.
Author's address: B.P. 176, Kinshasa XI, Zaire.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30084 Owen, Norman G. The paradox of nineteenth-century population growth in Southeast Asia: evidence from Java and the Philippines. Journal of Southeast Asian Studies, Vol. 18, No. 1, Mar 1987. 45-57 pp. Singapore. In Eng.
The author examines the reasons for the rapid population growth that occurred in nineteenth-century Southeastern Asia, using available data for Java, Indonesia, and the Philippines. The evidence for either an increase in fertility or a fall in mortality is considered. Other factors considered include developments in medicine and sanitation, colonial peacekeeping, changes in standards of living, changes in patterns of residence and production, and indigenous perceptions of changing circumstances of life.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

53:30085 Sanchez-Albornoz, Nicolas. The population of colonial Spanish America. In: Cambridge History of Latin America, Volume II: Colonial Latin America, edited by Leslie Bethell. 1984. 3-35 pp. Cambridge University Press: New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The relationship between population dynamics and colonization in the Americas following the Spanish invasion of the sixteenth century is explored. In the first part of this article, the author examines how the clash between the invaders and invaded led to a rapid decline in the native population. He also discusses the impact of European and African immigration during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries. In the second part, he considers how the Indian population slowly recovered during the eighteenth century. A review of the situation by region at the end of the colonial period concludes the chapter.
Location: Princeton University Library (DR).

53:30086 Shupe, Barbara; Steins, Janet; Pandit, Jyoti. New York State population, 1790-1980: a compilation of federal census data. ISBN 0-55570-009-8. LC 86-28487. 1987. xxvii, 333 pp. Neal-Schuman Publishers: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
This is a compilation of population statistics for New York State from 1790 to 1980, drawn primarily from federal sources. Data are presented not only for counties and cities but also for the 3,000 or so minor civil divisions. The data consist of population estimates for each census year. Information is included on boundary changes.
Location: New York Public Library.

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

53:30087 Australia. Bureau of Statistics (Belconnen, Australia). Australian demographic trends, 1986. Pub. Order No. 3102.0. ISBN 0-644-05014-4. 1986. ix, 113 pp. Belconnen, Australia. In Eng.
This report provides a general overview of recent demographic trends in Australia. The range of population statistics compiled by the Australian Bureau of Statistics on a regular basis is described. A selection of the available data is then provided, with appropriate commentary and graphs to illustrate current trends. Chapters are included on population growth, age and sex distribution, mortality, fertility, and international migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30088 Australia. New South Wales. Department of Environment and Planning. Demographic Unit (Sydney, Australia). A review of recent population trends in New South Wales, No. 7. 1987. 51 pp. New South Wales Population Projections Group: Sydney, Australia. In Eng.
This is one in a series of periodic reviews of demographic trends in New South Wales, Australia, issued in conjunction with official population projections. The data in this document are intended as an update to the most recent projections, which were published in 1984. Attention is given to recent developments concerning population size, the spatial distribution of the population, net migration rates, fertility, average marriage age, mortality rates, infant mortality, countries of origin of immigrants, and age distribution and dependency ratios. The implications for future population trends are discussed. Diagrams are included depicting age-specific fertility rates and population pyramids for subdivisions of New South Wales.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30089 Garcia Fernandez, Paulino. Population of the current municipal limits, 1900-1981. [Poblacion de los actuales terminos municipales, 1900-1981.] Pub. Order No. 68.90-85-301. ISBN 84-260-1249-3. [1984?]. ix, 234 pp. I.N.E. Artes Graficas: Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
The principal table in this volume lists the provinces of Spain alphabetically, each with its municipalities as of 1981 and each municipality's population according to censuses from 1900 to 1981. After each province, a list of its municipalities and their modifications and name changes is given. This main table is followed by an index in which the municipalities that have disappeared or undergone changes are listed alphabetically and coded so that they can be located in the main table. There is also a table listing the provinces alphabetically and providing for each province the number of municipalities according to the censuses conducted between 1900 and 1981.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30090 Gottschalk, Helmut. Population trends in West Berlin, 1985. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Berlin (West) 1985.] Berliner Statistik: Monatsschrift, Vol. 41, No. 1, 1987. 6-15 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Information is presented on population trends in West Berlin in 1985. Some comparative data for earlier years are also provided. Topics covered include changes in population size, marriages and divorces, fertility, mortality and infant mortality, causes of death, internal and international migration, and population trends by district. Most of the data are shown separately for Germans and foreigners.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30091 Levy, Michel L. How many Frenchmen are there? [Combien y a-t-il de Francais?] Population et Societes, No. 214, Jun 1987. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The author discusses the data and sources used to estimate the numbers of French citizens residing in France, in the overseas departments and territories, and in foreign countries. Recent official data are included concerning France's population by nationality and place of birth; selected characteristics of French citizens living abroad; the distribution among selected countries of French citizens living abroad; estimates of the size of the French expatriate population; acquisition of French citizenship, 1981-1986; and nationalities and occupations of foreigners living in France.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30092 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Recent demographic trends. [Evolution demographique recente.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 33, No. 5, 1987. 95-105 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
Population dynamics in Luxembourg in 1986 are reviewed. Separate consideration is given to fertility, nuptiality and divorce, mortality, natural increase and migration, adoption, and family policy. Some consideration is given to preliminary data for 1987 and to mortality trends among those affected by compulsory labor during World War II.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30093 Malaysia. Jabatan Perangkaan (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia). Demographic estimates for Sabah and Sarawak 1970-80. [Anggaran demografi bagi Sabah dan Sarawak 1970-80.] Kajian Mengenai Subjek Demografi dan Penduduk/Studies on Demographic and Population Subjects, No. 1, Jul 1986. iv, 44 pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng; Mal.
This is the first in a planned series on demographic topics concerning Malaysia. The present report is a profile of the demographic situation in Sabah and Sarawak. Chapters are included on the 1980 age distribution, the estimation of mortality, and the estimation of fertility.
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

53:30094 Malaysia. Jabatan Perangkaan (Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia). Revised mid-year estimates of the population by age, sex, and ethnic group for Peninsular Malaysia, Sabah and Sarawak, 1970-80. [Anggaran-anggaran kajian semula penduduk pertengahan tahun mengikut umur, jantina dan kumpulan etnik bagi Semenanjung Malaysia, Sabah dan Sarawak, 1970-1980.] Kajian Mengenai Subjek Demografi dan Penduduk/Studies on Demographic and Population Subjects, No. 2, Aug 1986. vi, [54] pp. Kuala Lumpur, Malaysia. In Eng; Mal.
Estimates of the population of Malaysia are provided by age, sex, and major ethnic group for the period 1970-1980. Consideration is given to data sources, methods of estimation, and previous estimates.
Location: East-West Population Institute, Honolulu, HI.

53:30095 United Nations. Economic Commission for Africa [ECA]. Population Division (Addis Ababa, Ethiopia). Estimates and projections of African population trends as assessed in 1986. Pub. Order No. ECA/POP/WP/87/1/2.6(b). May 1987. 24, [8] pp. Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. In Eng.
This report provides 1986 estimates and projections of African population trends compiled in the framework of the U.N. biennial assessments. "It is organized around two major sections. The first section...focuses on the status of data collection systems, data requirements and availability along with an evaluation and adjustment of the age-sex data. In the second section, an analysis of the salient features of recent population size, component and age structural changes is undertaken, in an attempt to up-date the information since 1984." Tables contain information by country on dates of national censuses; major African demographic surveys; availability of data; population size, 1975-1986, and average annual growth rate, 1975-1990; crude birth and death rates, 1981 and 1985-1986; current fertility levels and trends; population density; and age distribution.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30096 Venezuela. Oficina Central de Estadistica e Informatica (Caracas, Venezuela). Venezuela: principal population indicators. Summary. [Venezuela: principales indicadores de poblacion. Resumen.] [1986?]. 47 pp. Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
This publication consists of a tabular summary of principal indicators of the population of Venezuela, based on data from the 1981 census. Data are included on total population for rural and urban areas; population by federal district, state, and department; sex distribution; age groups; family and household structures; foreign population; marital status; place of birth; literacy and educational status; labor force; occupations; income; and native population by ethnic group. Projections to the year 2000 are provided on population by sex and age group, urban or rural residence, population of the principal cities, and population by federal entity, district, and department.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30097 Warren, Robert; Passel, Jeffrey S. A count of the uncountable: estimates of undocumented aliens counted in the 1980 United States census. Demography, Vol. 24, No. 3, Aug 1987. 375-93 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper presents estimates showing that 2 million undocumented aliens were included in the 1980 census; of these, 1.1 million were born in Mexico. The estimates are developed by comparing estimates of aliens counted in the 1980 census with estimates of the legally resident alien population, based principally on data collected by the Immigration and Naturalization Service in January 1980. Estimates are presented by age, sex, and period of entry for all aliens residing in the United States and for selected countries of origin, including Mexico. They provide a framework for assessing the total number of undocumented aliens in the country."
This is a revised version of a paper orginally presented at the 1983 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 49, No. 3, p. 419).
Author's address: Statistical Analysis Branch, U.S. Immigration and Naturalization Service, Washington, DC 20536.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

53:30098 de Beer, J. A further test of a multivariate forecasting model for fertility. [Een multivariaat progrnosemodel voor geboorten nader getoetst.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 6, Jun 1987. 16-20 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
A model developed by J. Nelissen and A. Vossen, for making short-term population projections, is first described. In this model, the fertility rate is related to the unemployment rate and the fraction of the labor force employed in agriculture. The model is then applied to Dutch data for the period 1980-1985. "The main conclusions are that the results depend heavily on the choice of the forecasting period and that the ex-post forecasts of Nelissen and Vossen's model are out-performed by univariate ARIMA-projections."
For the articles by Nelissen and Vossen, published in 1983, see 49:40238 and 52:10136.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30099 Findlay, Allan; White, Paul. The course of future change in European populations. In: West European population change, edited by Allan Findlay and Paul White. 1986. 233-47 pp. Croom Helm: Dover, New Hampshire/London, England. In Eng.
An attempt is made to project future population trends in Europe, excluding Eastern Europe, over the next 20 years. The authors suggest the probability that fertility will remain low and migration will play an important role in population change. "On a macro-scale, it can be suggested that the next 20 years or so will see not only a redrawing of the map of economic activities in Western Europe through economic decentralisation but also the creation of new regional patterns of demographic segregation.... In future there may be further demographic segregation, with the cities housing the young adult and the old alongside the new middle class but with very few children. It is the suburban--and, more specifically, counterurbanising--regions that will accommodate those in the family stage of the life cycle and which will produce the only areas of natural growth. Increasing regional differentiation of population by age cohort may therefore be expected to emerge, with some life-cycle increments occurring on a national core-periphery basis rather than merely within the city as happened in the past."
Author's address: Department of Geography, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, Scotland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30100 Hensher, D. A.; Beesley, M. E. Identification of segmentation criteria for the improvement of population forecasts. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 19, No. 6, Jun 1987. 807-18 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"It is often stated that the single most important influence on the quality of forecasts of behaviour is the set of predetermined exogenous variables (typically sociodemographic) that categorise the population. These variables are used to carry the sampled population into the future as a representation of the composition of future populations....It is argued that a desired segmentation set should be linked to preference stability, and that a suitable procedure for establishing such a link is via preference data derived from a controlled experimental design. From the empirical study it is illustrated how preference data can be combined with socioeconomic data to seek out the role of the 'current' set and the 'new' set of socioeconomic variables in a particular forecasting context. Since the selection of variables must be application specific, the main emphasis of this paper is on the methodology. The reported empirical findings [for Australia] are of illustrative use only."
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

53:30101 Israel. Central Bureau of Statistics (Jerusalem, Israel). Projections of population in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Area up to 2002, based on the population in 1982. Central Bureau of Statistics Special Series, No. 802, 1987. 42, xxiv pp. Jerusalem, Israel. In Heb. with sum. in Eng.
"The publication presents a system of 5 projections of the population in Judea, Samaria and the Gaza Area for the years 1987, 1992 and 2002, by sex and age. The projections are based on population estimates for end 1982 and are compiled according to various assumptions of future changes in fertility, mortality and migration."
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

53:30102 Kenney, Genevieve M. Current estimates of the disabled population in Pennsylvania: projections to the year 2000. Urban Institute Project Report, Feb 1987. xv, 188 pp. Urban Institute: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"Our goal in this report is to establish the current and projected size and composition of the disabled population for the state of Pennsylvania. The demographic phase of this analysis has two objectives: (1) to construct a demographic profile of the disabled population in Pennsylvania and, where possible, for Pittsburgh and Philadelphia for 1980; and (2) to project the size and characteristics of this population to 1990, 1995, and to the year 2000."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30103 Mostert, W. P.; van Tonder, J. L. Projections of the South African population. [Projeksies van die Suid-Afrikaanse bevolking.] RGN.HSRC Verslag/Report, No. S-158, ISBN 0-7969-0448-0. 1987. v, 91 pp. Human Sciences Research Council, Institute for Sociological and Demographic Research: Pretoria, South Africa. In Eng; Afr.
Population projections for South Africa are presented up to the year 2035, based on 1985 census results and other official sources. The projections are provided for the four major population groups. Two alternative fertility trends are estimated for Asians, coloureds, and whites, and one for blacks. The assumptions included in the projections are described. The results suggest that "in both the high and low projections the non-black population groups are expected to tend towards stationarity by the year 2035. In the case of blacks, however, a population that is still increasing is expected in both the low and high projections in 2035. The reason for this is that the fertility of the black population is not expected to undergo a dramatic decline in the next two decades, as has occurred among the non-black population groups during the preceding decade."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30104 Pickens, Gary T.; Mode, Charles J. Projection of mean and variance functions for population processes with time-homogeneous laws of evolution. IMA Journal of Mathematics Applied in Medicine and Biology, Vol. 3, No. 1, 1986. 1-22 pp. New York, New York/Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper provides algorithms for projection of mean and covariance functions for stochastic population processes governed by time-homogeneous laws of fertility and mortality. The theoretical foundation of the algorithms is general age-dependent branching processes in discrete time. The algorithms are employed in several illustrative projections, based on 1982 Chinese data, of a population experiencing an abrupt transition to below replacement fertility. Methods of constructing confidence limits for total population size are illustrated. Also developed are procedures for projecting mean and variance functions for populations which may be heterogeneous with respect to mortality or fertility."
Author's address: Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA 19104.
Location: State University of New York at Stony Brook, NY.

53:30105 Proebsting, Helmut. The projections 1985 of the population of the Federal Republic of Germany. In: Referate zum deutsch-franzosischen Arbeitstreffen auf dem Gebiet der Demographie vom 30. September bis 3. Oktober 1985 in Dijon. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 49, 1986. 33-9 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
Projections of the age and sex distributions of the population of the Federal Republic of Germany to the year 2030 are provided separately for Germans and resident foreigners. Population pyramids for the years 1983 and 2030 are compared. Three sets of projections of the age structures of the native German and resident foreign populations are presented, based on three different assumptions concerning the net reproduction rate.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30106 Proebsting, Helmut. The three-generations-model. In: Referate zum deutsch-franzosischen Arbeitstreffen auf dem Gebiet der Demographie vom 30. September bis 3. Oktober 1985 in Dijon. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, No. 49, 1986. 41-6 pp. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
The author describes the construction of a three-generations model, which he uses to explain that a change in net reproduction rates will reach a new balance in the course of three generations. The model is used to illustrate changes in reproduction rates in the Federal Republic of Germany. A population pyramid based on that country's age-specific birth and death rates for 1983 is compared with the population pyramid under stable population assumptions.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30107 Puerto Rico. Junta de Planificacion. Area de Planificacion Economica y Social. Negociado de Analisis Social y Programacion de Recursos (San Juan, Puerto Rico). The population of Puerto Rico in the year 2000. [La poblacion de Puerto Rico para el ano 2000.] Oct 1984. iv, 196 pp. San Juan, Puerto Rico. In Spa.
Population projections for Puerto Rico are presented up to the year 2000. Comparisons are made of the population situation in 1980 and 2000 with other countries, with particular regard to age distribution, sex ratio, and dependency burden. Consideration is also given to differences among the island's municipios, or regions.
Location: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Santiago, Chile.

53:30108 Rees, Philip; Willekens, Frans. How the Dutch and the English adopted multiregional models for subnational population projection. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 472, Sep 1986. 37 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
"The Netherlands and the United Kingdom have both introduced multiregional models to carry out part of the task of projecting the population of subnational areas. This paper describes and compares these efforts. They are also evaluated in two ways: against the requirements of potential users of forecasts and against the principles that should be applied in sound multiregional population models."
Publisher's address: School of Geography, University of Leeds, Leeds LS2 9JT, England.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30109 Russell, Cheryl. 100 predictions for the baby boom: the next 50 years. ISBN 0-306-42527-0. LC 87-2443. 1987. 249 pp. Plenum Press: New York, New York/London, England. In Eng.
This book is concerned with what will happen to the baby boom generation in the United States as it grows older. Data are from a variety of nationally representative surveys. The author first considers the causes of the baby boom. She then traces the probable social and economic consequences as this generation goes through middle age and old age.
Location: New York Public Library.

53:30110 Sardon, Jean-Paul. The short-term forecast of rates: longitudinal or transversal perspective? In: Referate zum deutsch-franzosischen Arbeitstreffen auf dem Gebiet der Demographie vom 30. September bis 3. Oktober 1985 in Dijon. Materialien zur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 107-34, No. 49, 1986. Bundesinstitut fur Bevolkerungsforschung: Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng.
Five methods of forecasting rates of significance to demographers are compared. The methods are described and applied to data for France and the Federal Republic of Germany for the period 1972-1982. The quality of rates for both countries is evaluated for male first marriage, female first marriage, and fertility. It is found that "the best estimates of the total period fertility rate and of the total period nuptiality rate are those given by methods where time is the major dependent variable of the regression, and where cohort rates are not at all, or very little, taken into consideration. Data related to the near past are better predictors than the...recent history of the observed cohort."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30111 Stpiczynski, Tadeusz. A population of 40 million in Poland in the year 2000. [40 milionow ludnosci w Polsce w 2000 r.] Wiadomosci Statystyczne, Vol. 32, No. 1, Jan 1987. 4-5 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
Poland's population is projected to reach 40 million by the year 2000. In connection with this, the author compares Poland's position among other nations in Europe in terms of population size. The analysis further concentrates on various characteristics of the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30112 United Kingdom. Office of Population Censuses and Surveys [OPCS] (London, England). Population projections: area. Population projections by sex and age for standard regions, counties, London boroughs and metropolitan districts of England from mid 1983. Series PP3, No. 6, ISBN 0-11-691178-6. 1986. xiii, 33 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This volume presents a...set of [subnational population] projections for the English regions, counties, metropolitan districts and London boroughs based upon the population estimates for mid 1983. They are compatible with the mid 1983-based national population projections....The present set of projections has been calculated by single years of age and sex for each year up to 2011, but the results for the last decade are not published...."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30113 United Kingdom. Scotland. General Register Office (Edinburgh, Scotland). Projected population of Scotland by area (1983 based). 1985. 20 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
Population projections for Scotland are presented up to the year 2001 by sex, age, region, and health board area.
Publisher's address: New Register House, Edinburgh EH1 3YT, Scotland.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30114 United States. Hawaii. Department of Planning and Economic Development. Research and Economic Analysis Division (Honolulu, Hawaii). Bibliography of population forecasts and projections for Hawaii, 1987. Hawaii Statistical Report, No. 199, May 15, 1987. 14 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
This annotated bibliography, the ninth in a series first issued in 1960, contains summary information on the methodology and findings of population projections released since 1984 for Hawaii and Honolulu. A table is included containing population projections from earlier reports for the years 1985, 1990, 1995, 2000, and 2010 as well as actual figures for 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30115 World Health Organization [WHO]. Regional Office for Europe (Copenhagen, Denmark). Health projections in Europe: methods and applications. ISBN 92-890-1036-3. 1986. xxi, 306 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Eng.
This book is concerned with methods of assesssing and predicting trends in health. It is the product of a project begun in 1980 by the WHO Regional Office for Europe and provides an "annotated inventory of methods of health projection, presenting a variety of projections and examples of their application at different levels in different countries....Where possible, complete technical information is given, and readers are given a description of the function and use of the more complicated methods and told where fuller technical information can be found." It includes a section on projections of health status that concern both morbidity and mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

53:30116 Roussel, Louis. Two decades of demographic change in industrialized countries (1965-1985). [Deux decennies de mutations demographiques (1965-1985) dans les pays industrialises.] Population, Vol. 42, No. 3, May-Jun 1987. 429-48 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Demographic changes in developed countries over the past 20 years are analyzed. The emphasis is on factors common to the changes that have occurred in basic demographic indicators such as fertility and nuptiality. These intermediate factors are identified as a decline in the institutional aspects of marriage and the family, the practice of family planning, and the greater economic independence of women. These factors are seen as part of a more complex cultural change involving the relationship between spouses, which is increasingly based on greater equality, discussion, and convergent attitudes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:30117 Verhoef, R.; van der Erf, R. F. Demography of the Netherlands, 1986. [Demografie van Nederland 1986.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 8, Aug 1987. 16-33 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population dynamics in the Netherlands during 1986 are described. The authors note that population increased by 84,000 during the year, primarily because of natural increase. Consideration is given to trends in fertility, mortality, international and internal migration, marriages, divorces, and the alien population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1987-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.