**53:20741** **Agung, I
Gusti Ngurah.** *Chi-square statistics based on
block-triangular tables.* [Statistik chi-kuadrat berdasarkan tabel
blok-segitiga.] Majalah Demografi Indonesia/Indonesian Journal of
Demography, Vol. 13, No. 26, Dec 1986. iv, 49-60 pp. Jakarta,
Indonesia. In Ind. with sum. in Eng.

"This paper discusses some
problems related to a type of incomplete contingency table, called a
block-triangular table. Furthermore, this paper also presents an
illustration in computing the Pearson Chi-square based on this type of
table [as well as] a general formula."

Author's address: Pusat
Penelitian Kependudukan, Universitas Gajah Mada, Yogyakarta,
Indonesia.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**53:20742** **Brillinger,
David R.** *The natural variability of vital rates and
associated statistics.* Biometrics, Vol. 42, No. 4, Dec 1986.
693-734 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.

"The first
concern of this work is the development of approximations to the
distributions of crude mortality rates, age-specific mortality rates,
age-standardized rates, standardized mortality ratios, and the like for
the case of a closed population or period study. It is found that
assuming Poisson birthtimes and independent lifetimes implies that the
number of deaths and the corresponding midyear population have a
bivariate Poisson distribution....It is...suggested that situations in
which explanatory variables are present may be modelled via a doubly
stochastic Poisson distribution for the number of deaths, with mean
proportional to the population size and an exponential function of a
linear combination of the explanatories. Such a model is fit to
mortality data for Canadian females classified by age and year. A
dynamic variant of the model is further fit to the time series of total
female deaths alone by year. The models with extra-Poisson variation
are found to lead to substantially improved fits."

Author's address:
Statistics Department, University of California, Berkeley, CA
94720.*Location:* U.S. National Library of Medicine,
Bethesda, Md.

**53:20743** **Burch,
Thomas K.; Madan, Ashok K.** *A note on the components of
Coale's Ig and other indirectly standardized indices.* Canadian
Studies in Population, Vol. 13, No. 2, 1986. 151-65 pp. Edmonton,
Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.

"Some results of elementary
linear algebra are used to explore conventional standardized measures.
Taking the norm of a rate vector as a summary measure of a set of
demographic rates...[the authors] provide an expression for the
interaction between rates and structure in standardized measures.
Using these results and the Coale-Trussell model of marital fertility,
it is shown that Coale's Ig can be factored into three terms measuring
a) the scale, b) the pattern of marital fertility and c) an error term
due to the arbitrary choice of Hutterite fertility as standard. Some
suggestions are made in passing of possible corrections of conventional
standardized indices."

Author's address: Population Studies Center,
University of Western Ontario, London, Ontario,
Canada.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**53:20744** **Day,
Richard H.; Kim, Kyoo-Hong.** *A note on nonperiodic
demoeconomic fluctuations with positive measure.* MRG Working
Paper, No. M8628, Jul 1986. 10 pp. University of Southern California,
Department of Economics, Modelling Research Group: Los Angeles,
California. In Eng.

"Proofs of the existence of nonperiodic
behavior using sufficient chaos conditions leave open the question as
to whether irregular fluctuations are probable for initial conditions
drawn at random. It is known that in some cases this probability is
zero, thus casting doubt on the importance of chaos as a theoretical
characterization of the phenomenon of interest. In this note we
consider this issue in the context of a classical demoeconomic model.
We show that nonperiodic population fluctuations are probable,
converging to a limit set with positive measure that is absolutely
continuous with respect to Lebesque measure."*Location:*
Princeton University Library (SPR).

**53:20745** **Hodge,
Robert W.** *ANOVA based designs for the analysis of survey
data.* NUPRI Research Paper Series, No. 37, Mar 1987. vi, 28 pp.
Nihon University, Population Research Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.

"In this essay, we work out the relationship between dummy variable
and multiple classification analysis, showing how one can transform the
results obtained from either of these methods to the other. In
addition we exhibit computational formula, provide a numerical example
derived from a Korean fertility survey, and discuss the relative merits
of dummy variable as opposed to effect coding of
polytomies."*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**53:20746** **Kim, Young
J.** *Dynamics of populations with changing rates:
generalization of the stable population theory.* Theoretical
Population Biology, Vol. 31, No. 2, Apr 1987. 306-22 pp. New York, New
York. In Eng.

"A general and complete exposition of the dynamics of
populations with changing vital rates is given in the discrete time
formulation. Results obtained are stronger than Lopez's or Hajnal's.
In addition to the proof of existence of limits, an explicit expression
for the age distribution is obtained by considering forward products of
population projection matrices, while an explicit expression for the
generalized reproductive values is obtained by considering backward
products. The forward and backward characteristic equations
respectively determine the forward and backward growth
rates."

Author's address: Department of Population Dynamics, Johns
Hopkins University, Baltimore, MD 21205.*Location:*
Princeton University Library (SPR).

**53:20747** **Mode,
Charles J.; Jacobson, Marc E.; Pickens, Gary T.** *A
stochastic population projection system based on general age-dependent
branching processes.* Journal of Applied Probability, Vol. 24, No.
1, Mar 1987. 1-13 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.

"Algorithms for a
stochastic population process, based on assumptions underlying general
age-dependent branching processes in discrete time with time
inhomogeneous laws of evolution, are developed through the use of a new
representation of basic random functions involving birth cohorts and
random sums of random variables. New algorithms provide a capability
for computing the mean age structure of the process as well as
variances and covariances, measuring variation about means. Four
exploratory population projections, testing the implications of the
algorithms for the case of time-homogeneous laws of evolution, are
presented. Formulas extending mean and variance functions for unit
population projections...are also presented. These formulas show that,
in population processes with non-random laws of evolution, stochastic
fluctuations about the mean function are negligible when initial
population size is large. Further extensions of these formulas to the
case of randomized laws of evolution suggest that stochastic
fluctuations about the mean function can be significant even for large
initial populations."

Author's address: Department of Mathematics
and Computer Science, Drexel University, Philadelphia, PA
19104.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SM).

**53:20748** **Nanjo,
Zenji.** *Practical use of interpolatory cubic and rational
spline functions for fertility data.* NUPRI Research Paper Series,
No. 34, Dec 1986. vi, 13 pp. Nihon University, Population Research
Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.

The author presents a method for
obtaining fertility data for single years of age from data concerning
births by five-year age groups of mothers. Cubic and rational spline
interpolations and an angular transformation formula are applied to
data for Japan and Bulgaria.*Location:* Princeton University
Library (SPR).

**53:20749** **Paszek,
Barbara.** *The net probability of occurrence of demographic
events and type of distribution.* [Prawdopodobienstwo netto
wystepowania zdarzen demograficznych a typ rozkladu.] Studia
Demograficzne, Vol. 2, No. 4/86, 1986. 85-90 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In
Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.

"In this paper two methods of
calculation of the net probability were analysed thoroughly--[the]
Schwartz-Lazar method and [the] Chiang method--in consideration of [the
inherent assumptions] in these methods...in reference to examined
distributions, and [the] effect of these assumptions on calculated net
probability...."*Location:* Princeton University Library
(SPR).

**53:20750** **Rogot,
Eugene; Sorlie, Paul; Johnson, Norman J.** *Probabilistic
methods in matching census samples to the National Death Index.*
Journal of Chronic Diseases, Vol. 39, No. 9, 1986. 719-34 pp. Oxford,
England. In Eng.

These are the results of a pilot study in which
U.S. census files containing 226,000 person records were matched to the
1979 National Death Index. The results of this match were used to
generate a probabilistic method to separate the possible matches into
categories of true positives, false positives and those of questionable
status requiring manual review of the Census record and the death
certificate. Of the 5,542 possible matches about one-third were
ultimately determined to be true positives and two-thirds false
positives. The probabilistic method was validated by replications on
subsets of the data and promises to save considerable time in review of
records in the large national study of mortality."

Author's address:
Division of Epidemiology and Clinical Applications, National Heart,
Lung and Blood Institute, Bethesda, MD 20892.*Location:*
U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

**53:20751** **Shah, M.
Rafiq.** *A critique of Clogg's method of rates
adjustment.* IPD Working Paper, No. 1987-4, 1987. 27 pp. Vrije
Universiteit Brussel, Interuniversity Programme in Demography:
Brussels, Belgium. In Eng.

"Clogg (1978) has developed a method for
the adjustment of demographic rates by purging the so called
undesireable interactions from a saturated multiplicative model. The
summary rates of the purged frequencies are known as the adjusted
rates. This paper critically examines the proposed method of finding
adjusted rates by purging two factor interactions, and relates it to
the traditional method of direct standardization by defining the
prevalence rates in terms of the parameters of the model. A comparison
of the results reveals that unlike directly standardized rates, the
adjusted rates carry with them the effects of the confounding factor.
The case of finding adjusted rates based on purging both two and three
factor interactions is also discussed. The examples quoted by Clogg
(1978) are used as numerical illustrations."

For the article by
Clifford C. Clogg, published in 1978, see 45:1660.
*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**53:20752** **Sierra
Bravo, Restituto.** *Exploratory data analysis and its
application to birth, marriage, and mortality rates in the provinces of
Spain.* [El analisis exploratorio y su aplicacion a las tasas de
natalidad, nupcialidad y mortalidad de las provincias espanolas.]
Revista Internacional de Sociologia, Vol. 43, No. 4, Oct-Dec 1985.
635-65 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.

The concept of
exploratory data analysis is described and applied to the analysis of
Spanish provincial data concerning fertility, nuptiality, mortality,
and natural increase for the years 1979 and 1982. Differences among
the provinces are described.*Location:* Princeton University
Library (PR).

**53:20753** **Sora, V.;
Hristache, I.; Despa, M.** *Stable population-reference model
in the analysis of the structure by age.* Economic Computation and
Economic Cybernetics, Studies and Research, Vol. 21, No. 1, 1986. 33-7
pp. Bucharest, Romania. In Eng.

The authors examine the
implications of Romania's current pronatalist policy, which is designed
to raise the birth rate to between 18 and 20 per 1,000. The emphasis
is on what is defined as instability factors in the age structure of
the population. The concept of an instability index is described and
applied to Romanian demographic data to identify the generations whose
reproduction rates have been the lowest.*Location:*
Princeton University Library (PR).

**53:20754** **Stark,
Oded; Yitzhaki, Shlomo.** *Merging populations, stochastic
dominance and Lorenz curves.* Migration and Development Program
Discussion Paper, No. 29, Mar 1987. 9 pp. Harvard University, Center
for Population Studies, Migration and Development Program: Cambridge,
Massachusetts. In Eng.

"In typical comparisons of inequality the
condition that the means of the distributions are equal is hardly met.
In these cases, the widely used Lorenz curves non-intersection
criterion is neither a necessary nor sufficient condition for
stochastic dominance. It is suggested to replace the Lorenz curves
non-intersection criterion with an absolute Lorenz curves
non-intersection criterion. The implications of adopting this
criterion are discussed in the context of fixed populations and
changing populations."*Location:* Princeton University
Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1987-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.