Volume 53 - Number 2 - Summer 1987

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

53:20073 Gruder, Vivian R. A note on the population of France at the end of the eighteenth century. [Note sur la population de la France a la fin du XVIIIe siecle.] DH: Bulletin d'Information, No. 48, Mar 1987. 42-7 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reviews a number of contemporary attempts to estimate the population of France in the period immediately preceding the French Revolution of 1789. Emphasis is placed on a 1783 estimate prepared by the Controller General, Calonne.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20074 van der Haegen, H. The recent demographic evolution in Belgium. Tijdschrift van de Belgische Vereniging voor Aardrijkskundige Studies/Bulletin de la Societe Belge d'Etudes Geographiques, Vol. 55, No. 1, 1986. 103-6 pp. Louvain, Belgium. In Eng.
Demographic trends in Belgium over the past 20 years are reviewed. The author notes that the total population began to decline in 1983 for the first time since the founding of the Belgian state. Consideration is given to regional differences and to the demographic contribution of the foreign population. A series of maps illustrating population dynamics in 1983 is presented separately.
Location: New York Public Library.

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

53:20075 Ales, Milan. Population development of Czechoslovakia in 1985. Demosta, Vol. 19, No. 2, 1986. 11-4 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Eng.
The author examines demographic trends in Czechoslovakia in 1985. Figures are provided on marriage, divorce, natality and fertility, abortions, mortality, and infant and neonatal mortality for the years 1983, 1984, and 1985 for the Czech Socialist Republic and the Slovak Socialist Republic.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20076 Bruk, S. I. The population of the world: an ethno-demographic inquiry. [Naselenie mira: etnodemograficheskii spravochnik.] Rev. ed. 1986. 829 pp. Izdatel'stvo Nauka: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
This is a revised edition of a reference book presenting demographic data for the countries of the world. The data are taken both from official national sources and from official U.N. publications. Initial chapters describe the current global demographic situation and the current global ethnic situation. The bulk of the text concerns an analysis of the demographic and ethnic situations by continent and region. In the present edition, the emphasis is on data available for the early 1980s.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20077 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography Division (Ottawa, Canada). Population estimation methods, Canada. Pub. Order No. 91-528E. ISBN 0-660-12028-3. Mar 1987. 117 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng.
The methods used to produce official population estimates for Canada are discussed and evaluated. "Individual chapters are organized around three recurring themes: (1) method; (2) data sources, and; (3) quality evaluation. In this regard, an attempt is made in each chapter to answer the corresponding questions: (1) how are the estimates produced; (2) what are the data and their sources, and; (3) how reliable are the estimates in light of various validation criteria?" Separate chapters are included on postcensal population estimates for the total population and for the population by sex, age, and marital status, intercensal estimates, internal migration, emigration, local area population, and family estimates. The publication is also available in French.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20078 Carrilho, Maria J. Provisional estimates of the resident population of Portugal, 1984. [Estimativas provisorias de populacao residente em Portugal, 1984.] 1985. 11 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica [INE], Centro de Estudos Demograficos: Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Population estimates for Portugal are presented for the end of 1984 using data from official sources, including the 1981 census. The estimates are provided by district and sex. Summary vital statistics by district are also included
Publisher's address: 1078 Lisbon Codex, Portugal.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20079 Donque, G. The population of the Federal Islamic Republic of the Comoros. [La population de la Republique Federale Islamique des Comores.] Madagascar; Revue de Geographie, Vol. 42, Jan-Jun 1983. 9-21 pp. Antananarivo, Madagascar. In Fre.
The demographic situation in the Comoros, excluding Mayotte, is discussed using data from the 1980 census. Among the topics considered are population characteristics and spatial distribution, education and marital status, population movements, employment, and prospects for the future. The islands' inability to physically support the projected long-term growth trends underscores the need for family planning programs.
Location: University of Florida.

53:20080 France. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE] (Paris, France). Demographic results for the year 1986. [Bilan demographique de 1986.] Premiers Resultats, No. 82, Feb 1987. 4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
A summary of provisional vital statistics for France for 1986 is presented. An annual growth rate of 0.4 percent is indicated, similar to rates of growth recorded since 1975.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20081 Hobbs, Frank B. Demographic estimates, projections and selected social characteristics of the population of India. CIR Staff Paper, No. 21, May 1986. vii, 148 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This detailed study of selected demographic and social characteristics of the population [of India] focuses on five major topics, namely, internal and international migration, religion, education, and population projections. Included are tables on size of population and estimates of fertility, mortality, and migration. Specifically, annual estimates of total population and growth rates are shown beginning in 1950. Adjusted age and sex distributions of the population are given for the census years 1971 and 1981, followed by projected distributions for selected years to 2025."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20082 Levy, Michel L.; Brouard, Nicolas. The population of France in 1985 and 1986. [La population de la France en 1985 et 1986.] Population et Societes, No. 211, Mar 1987. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is an overview of selected changes in the dynamics and composition of the French population in 1985 and 1986. Overall, little change is noted, with a slight increase in births, virtually the same number of deaths, and no net migration. Attention is given to trends in births to unmarried women and to couples of mixed and foreign nationality. Population pyramids, comparing the actual French population in 1987 with the population under assumptions of unchanging fertility conditions and comparing French residents in 1987 with those born in France in order to illustrate migration effects, are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20083 Marton, Adam. Synthetic estimates for small areas: problems and results of a simulation experiment. Statistical Journal of the United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Vol. 4, No. 1, May 1986. 71-80 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
The use of special estimation techniques to develop small area data is described using examples from Hungary. The focus is on the use of synthetic, or SPREE, techniques to increase the reliability of estimates of small-area characteristics. The techniques are tested using a simulation experiment. "Ten variables were selected from the 1980 population census. Their exact values were known. Four different synthetic estimators were tested and compared with the simple direct estimator. The ten variables were studied at both a fairly aggregated level (minor domains) and in great detail (mini domains). The simple direct estimator with the synthetic or composite synthetic estimators shows an improvement of average reliability of 40 to 50 per cent."
Location: Princeton University Library (UN).

53:20084 Nicaragua. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas y Censos [INEC] (Managua, Nicaragua); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica). Nicaragua: estimates and projections of population, 1950-2025. [Nicaragua: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F-NIC, No. 1, Nov 1983. [114] pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Nicaragua from 1950 to 2025. The methodologies used are first described. Data are from a variety of official sources but are primarily from the 1971 census. Four alternative projections for the period 1980-2025 are discussed. Abbreviated life tables for 1950-1955, 1975, and 1980 are also provided. Projections of the economically active population and of the urban and rural populations are included for the median variant.
Location: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Santiago, Chile.

53:20085 Sauberer, Michael. Latest trends of regional population development in Austria (1971-1984). [Jungste Tendenzen der regionalen Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Osterreich (1971-1984).] Mitteilungen der Osterreichischen Geographischen Gesellschaft, Vol. 127, 1985. 81-118 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The author examines regional demographic trends in Austria between 1971 and 1984. Two theses are developed and illustrated. The first is that the decline in fertility rates experienced in the nation as a whole has had a major impact on regional population dynamics. The author finds that as a result of this decrease, "from the regional point of view both the disparities between Western and Eastern Austria and between urban and regional areas were reduced." Second, the author suggests that "regional population redistribution caused by migration is of declining importance as the migration rates are decreasing....The importance of qualitative effects of migration represented by a socioeconomic selection process is increasing. The net migration rates of the big towns are now in a transition process to an out migration surplus. In the suburbanized areas the in-migration rates are still growing with a spatially centrifugal tendency. The net migration losses of the peripheral areas are declining." The trends are evaluated in light of the goals of regional development policies.
Location: Northwestern University.

53:20086 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). Global estimates and projections of population by sex and age: the 1984 assessment. No. ST/ESA/SER.R/70, 1987. ix, 385 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This report presents the estimated and projected sex and age distributions according to the medium, high and low variants for 1950-2025 for countries and areas generally with a population of 300,000 and over in 1980." Data are from the tenth round of the global demographic assessments undertaken by the U.N. Secretariat and represent data available at the beginning of 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20087 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs. Population Division (New York, New York). World demographic trends. [Tendances demographiques mondiales.] World Health Statistics Quarterly/Rapport Trimestriel de Statistiques Sanitaires Mondiales, Vol. 40, No. 1, 1987. 6-21 pp. Geneva, Switzerland. In Eng; Fre.
World population trends since 1950 and projections to the year 2025 are studied using U.N. data. Attention is given to population size, rate of growth, age and sex distribution, urbanization, fertility, and mortality. It is noted that "the world population almost doubled over the period 1950-1985. The rate of population growth, however, changed its course from the rise in the 1950s and 1960s to the decline in the 1970s and the first half of the 1980s...." Regional comparisons are made, and the age distributions of developed and developing countries are contrasted.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20088 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). United States population estimates and components of change: 1970 to 1986. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 1006, May 1987. iii, 18 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report provides estimates of the population of the United States for each month from January 1, 1950, to January 1, 1987. It also shows estimates of the components of change for the total population by race for each calendar year and for each year ending June 30 from 1970 to 1986." Separate consideration is given to trends in fertility, mortality, and immigration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20089 University of Gezira. Population Studies Centre (Wad Medani, Sudan); Sudan. Department of Statistics. Census Office (Khartoum, Sudan). Population of the Sudan and its regions: a joint project on mapping and analysing the 1983 population census data. Project documentation No. 1. 1983 census. Total populations by region, province and district. Rev. ed. Oct 1985. 11 pp. Wad Medani, Sudan. In Eng.
A summary of preliminary results from the 1983 census of Sudan are presented. The data concern population by region, province, and district.
Location: Encyclopaedia Britannica, Chicago, Ill. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 70, Feb 1987.

53:20090 University of Gezira. Population Studies Centre (Wad Medani, Sudan); Sudan. Department of Statistics. Census Office (Khartoum, Sudan). Population of the Sudan and its regions: a joint project on mapping and analysing the 1983 population census data. Project documentation No. 2. 1983 census. Total population by male, female and sex ratio for. [1985?]. 14 pp. Wad Medani, Sudan. In Eng.
A summary of preliminary results from the 1983 census of Sudan are presented. The data concern sex distribution and sex ratio by region, province, and district.
Location: Encyclopaedia Britannica, Chicago, Ill. Source: APLIC Census Network List, No. 70, Feb 1987.

53:20091 Wegman, Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1985. Pediatrics, Vol. 78, No. 6, Dec 1986. 983-94 pp. Elk Grove Village, Illinois. In Eng.
This is an annual review of the vital statistics of the United States based on official data from the Monthly Vital Statistics Reports of the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS). Global trends are also examined using U.N. published data. Separate consideration is given to births, marriages and divorces, deaths, and infant mortality.
Author's address: School of Public Health, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI 48109-2029.
For a previous review, published in 1985, see 52:20105.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

53:20092 Aird, John S. Future implications of alternative family planning policies in China. CIR Staff Paper, No. 27, Nov 1986. 18, [10] pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census, Center for International Research: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The implications of alternative policies on fertility control [in China] are explored here by means of a set of five projections which cover the range of alternatives considered by the central authorities. The five series differ considerably in the size of the population totals they generate by 2080; the range is about 700 million, the highest series being almost twice the size of the lowest. The differences in the degree of aging are not as great; in the lowest series the proportion aged 65 and over reaches a peak at 27.5 percent in 2050, whereas the highest series peaks at 18.2 percent in 2040. In all series the proportion of the aged is still high (17 to 19 percent) in 2080." Particular attention is given to projections of the age distribution and related policy implications.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20093 Andre, Robert; Guilmot, Pierre; Pereira Roque, Jose. Regional demographic projections 1981-2031 in Wallonia. Effects on the labor force in 2001. [Projections demographiques regionales 1981-2031 en Wallonie. Effets sur la population active en 2001.] Revue Belge de Geographie, Vol. 109, No. 3, 1985. 93-122 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre.
The authors summarize the contents of the report "Analyse de la Population de la Wallonie et Perspectives a l'Horizon 2031", which was published by the Regional Ministry for Wallonia, the French-speaking part of Belgium, in 1983-1984. They describe population projections for the region up to the year 2031 and their impact on the labor force up to 2001. Data are from the Belgian census of 1981. The results suggest that the labor force will not decline in size before 2001, although it will become increasingly older and will include more females.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

53:20094 Argentina. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica y Censos (Buenos Aires, Argentina). Population projections, 1970-2025: urban and rural population and economically active population by sex and age group. [Proyeccion de poblacion, 1970-2025: urbana y rural y economicamente activa por sexo y grupo de edad.] Estudios INDEC, No. 4, 1986. 49 pp. Buenos Aires, Argentina. In Spa.
Official estimates and projections of the population of Argentina are presented for the period 1970-2015 by sex, age group, economic activity, and rural or urban residence.
Location: New York Public Library.

53:20095 Birg, H.; Brock, R. The stochastic variability of population projections for regions and for population groups--comparison of alternative simulation models using the example of the city of Werne. [Zur stochastischen Variabilitat von Bevolkerungsprognosen fur Regionen bzw. fur Bevolkerungsgruppen--Vergleich alternativer Simulationsmodelle am Fallbeispiel der Stadt Werne.] IBS-Materialien, No. 22, ISBN 3-923340-11-7. 1986. 5, 49 pp. Universitat Bielefeld, Institut fur Bevolkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik: Bielefeld, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng.
The stochastic variability of population projections is analyzed by comparing the results obtained from two different projection models: a unified simulation model and a regional or group simulation model. The models are applied to 1981 data for the town of Werne, Federal Republic of Germany. The findings indicate that there is greater stochastic variability with the group simulation model. The differing levels of accuracy in population projections for various age groups are stressed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20096 Bui Dang Ha Doan. Mortality decline, demographic projections, and aging of the population. [Baisse de mortalite, projections demographiques et vieillissement de la population.] Cahiers de Sociologie et de Demographie Medicales, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1987. 87-96 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines recent changes in the number of people over age 65 included in the official projections of France. Reasons for the significant increase in the number of the elderly in successive projections are examined. Some consideration is also given to projections for the Scandinavian countries.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20097 Chaudhry, Mahinder. Comparative study of India's population projections based on the 1981 census. Demography India, Vol. 15, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1986. 103-25 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author discusses seven sets of population projections for India, all of which were based on 1981 census data. The projections were produced by Indian government agencies, U.N. agencies, the World Bank, and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. A comparative analysis is presented of selected projections of total population size, replacement-level fertility, gross and net reproduction rates, crude birth and death rates, and life expectancy at birth. Methodologies and underlying assumptions concerning future fertility and mortality trends are discussed. In concluding, the author notes that "the burden of evidence indicates that India will most likely reach replacement-level fertility...somewhere during the first decade of the next century....The future demographic changes in India will be strongly influenced by three inter-related factors: (i) the family planning program; (ii) age at marriage for females; [and] (iii) the national educational level in general and of females in particular."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20098 Cruijsen, H. Population forecasts for the Netherlands, 1986-2035. [Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1986-2035.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 2, Feb 1987. 15-21 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Results of the 1986 official population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented, and the assumptions made in their preparation are described. Comparisons are made with forecasts for 1985. Three alternative variations of the forecasts are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20099 de Beer, J.; van Hoorn, W. D. Methods for short-run population forecasts: an overview. [Methoden voor korte- termijnbevolkingsprognoses: een overzicht.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 35, No. 2, Feb 1987. 22-30 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
A survey of methods used in making short-term population forecasts is presented. The methods are tested using recent official Dutch data. The authors conclude that ARIMA-type models appear to be slightly more accurate than the alternatives.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20100 de Bowman, Nivia C.; Garcia, Agustin; de Cantillo, Yadira del C. Republic of Panama. Population projections by urban and rural area, according to sex and age group: 1980-2000. [Republica de Panama. Proyecciones de poblacion por area urbana y rural, segun sexo y grupos de edad: anos 1980-2000.] Estadistica Panamena, Boletin, No. 1, Feb 3, 1987. 42 pp. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo: Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
These are the results of population projections of urban and rural areas of Panama. The publication consists of sections on the estimation of demographic components for the period 1970-1980; estimation of the urban and rural population by sex and age group for the same period; and projections of the urban and rural population by sex and age group to the year 2000, including an analysis of the results.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20101 Denton, Frank T.; Spencer, Byron G. Population change and the future labour force: a discussion paper. QSEP Research Report, No. 187, Jan 1987. 53 pp. McMaster University, Faculty of Social Sciences, Program for Quantitative Studies in Economics and Population: Hamilton, Canada. In Eng.
The authors examine future population trends in Canada, with particular attention to labor force changes, in light of the recent decline in the birth rate. "This paper provides some projections of likely future changes, places them in historical context, and discusses some of the implications associated with such changes....We review briefly the record of population and labour force growth in Canada and its major regions over the past half century, noting the major changes that have taken place in age-sex composition as well as in regional composition. Projections of the future population and labour force are provided and discussed in section 3, based on a variety of underlying assumptions. Some implications of the changes that are in prospect are discussed in sections 4 and 5, followed by suggestions for a research agenda in section 6." Among the anticipated developments, assuming no return to high fertility, are the aging of the labor force and an unprecedented decline in its size. Tables provide alternative projections for the total population to the year 2036 under assumptions of high and low fertility, high and low mortality, and high and low immigration. Population pyramids are included for the entire labor force, for elementary and kindergarten teachers, and for physicians.
Publisher's address: Hamilton, Ontario, Canada L8S 4M4.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20102 Exter, Thomas. How many Hispanics? American Demographics, Vol. 9, No. 5, May 1987. 36-9, 67 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
An attempt is made to estimate the size of the U.S. Hispanic population at five-year intervals up to the year 2010 using data from official sources. The author's best guess is that the size of the Hispanic population will surpass that of the black population in 2015 and comprise 28 percent of the population in 2080.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20103 Gauthier, Herve. Three projections of population decline for Quebec: characteristics and implications for the working population. [Trois scenarios de decroissance de la population quebecoise: caracteristiques et incidences sur la population active.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 181-212 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"After a brief review of various projections of population decline for Quebec, the author analyses some previous examples of depopulation, and emphasizes that public opinion will have to change much if immigration is to be used as a tool for avoiding population decline. He then investigates four implications of the projected decline: the size of the working population, its age and sex structure, the labor force participation ratio, and the economic dependency ratio."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20104 Levy, Michel L. Demographic projections. [Les projections demographiques.] Population et Societes, No. 213, May 1987. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
A review of the current status of population projections is presented on the occasion of the Eighth National Demographic Conference held in Grenoble, France, in May 1987. Consideration is given to the current situation concerning projections for the world in general as well as those for France.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20105 Macura, Milos; Malacic, Janez. Population prospects for Europe. In: European Population Conference 1987. Plenaries/Congres Europeen de Demographie 1987. Seances plenieres, edited by the International Union for the Scientific Study of Population and the European Association for Population Studies. 1987. 1-45 pp. Central Statistical Office: Helsinki, Finland. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The object of this paper is to summarize the key issues of European population prospects and to provide a basis for discussion....After a brief introduction and a summary of some earlier work, there follows a section which will deal with the demographic implications of the [trend] towards population decline which has prevailed in Europe for some time. Three further sections deal with the principal population prospects: they are based on a series of projections, but focus on two models which depict population stabilization and population decline respectively. In the last section we examine some fundamental problems raised by the models and comment on policies and possible remedies."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20106 Marc, Nicole; Marchand, Olivier. Projection of the available active population, 1985-2010. [Projection de population active disponible, 1985-2010.] Collections de l'INSEE, Serie D: Demographie et Emploi, No. 118, May 1987. 51 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one of three publications presenting projections of the population of France using data from the 1982 census. The present publication presents projections of the economically active and school-age population to the year 2010. The results forecast a slowing in the rate of growth of the labor force over the next 15 years and a subsequent decline in numbers.
For a related publication by Quan-Chi Dinh and Jean-Claude Labat, published in 1986, see 53:10116.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20107 May, John F. Regional population projections for Fiji (1976-2001). Departement de Demographie Working Paper, No. 131, ISBN 2-87085-107-3. 1986. 37 pp. Universite Catholique de Louvain, Departement de Demographie: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; CIACO Editeur: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
Population projections are presented for Fiji by race and region for the period 1976-2001 based on 1976 census data.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20108 Mexico. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica, Geografia e Informatica [INEGI] (Mexico City, Mexico); Mexico. Consejo Nacional de Poblacion [CONAPO] (Mexico City, Mexico); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Mexico: population estimates and projections, 1950-2000. [Mexico: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2000.] ISBN 968-809-550-8. Oct 1983. v, 36 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Mexico from 1950 to 2000. Data are from official sources available up to 1981. The estimates for 1950-1980 are first presented by age and sex, together with summary vital statistics data and abbreviated life tables. Two alternative projections by year, sex, and age group are also included. The first alternative involves fertility estimates under the assumption that national population policy goals are met; the second involves higher fertility estimates, assuming that the goals are not achieved.
Location: New York Public Library.

53:20109 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population projections for the Netherlands, 1986-2035. A supplement to the population projections for the Netherlands, 1984-2035. [Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1986-2035. Supplement bij bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1984-2035.] 1986. 8 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Revised population projections for the Netherlands are presented up to the year 2035. These projections are a supplement and a revision of those for the period 1984-2035.
For the projections referred to, published in 1985, see 52:10137.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20110 Panama. Direccion de Estadistica y Censo (Panama City, Panama). Republic of Panama: population projections for provinces and districts, by sex and age: 1980-1990. [Republica de Panama: proyecciones de poblacion por provincia y distrito, segun sexo y edad: anos 1980-1990.] Estadistica Panamena, Boletin, No. 970, Mar 11, 1985. 102 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
This publication contains population projections by sex and age for each district and province of Panama for the period 1980-1990. A brief analysis of the results is also included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20111 Poullain, Genevieve; Bui Dang Ha Doan. Demographic projection of the corps of doctors in France (1985-2040). [Projection demographique du corps medical francais (1985-2040).] Cahiers de Sociologie et de Demographie Medicales, Vol. 27, No. 1, Jan-Mar 1987. 3-85 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author reports the results of projections of future trends in the number of doctors in France. These projections were undertaken on behalf of the Ministry of Health in 1985. Consideration is given to the consequences of different university recruitment policies. In the second part, consideration is given to the total numbers of general physicians and medical specialists. In the third part, the authors examine these projections in the general context of the health systems of industrialized countries. The methodology used in making these projections is described in an annex.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20112 Rein, Detlev B. Population development, economic growth, and the labor market. Projections in the report on population development in the Federal Republic of Germany: tasks and limitations. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung, Wirtschaftswachstum und Arbeitsmarkt. Modellrechnungen im Bericht uber die Bevolkerungsentwicklung in der Bundesrepublik Deutschland: Aufgaben und Beschrankungen.] Deutsche Gesellschaft fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft Mitteilungen, Vol. 64, Nov 1984. 80-91 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This article focuses on the population projections developed for an official report on population trends in the Federal Republic of Germany. The report was issued in 1980 by the Working Group on Population Questions. The present article deals with the objectives, design, limitations, and advantages of the projections, which extend up to the year 2030.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20113 Saw, Swee-Hock. New population and labour force projections and policy implications for Singapore. Research Notes and Discussions Paper, No. 61, ISBN 9971-988-55-0. 1987. v, 65, [30] pp. Institute of Southeast Asian Studies: Singapore. In Eng.
Population and labor force projections for Singapore are presented based on 1985 official data. Three separate projections are presented using alternative hypotheses concerning fertility. The separate assumptions are an increase in fertility to replacement level as envisaged in Singapore's current population policy, a continuation of fertility at its present level, and a further decline of fertility based on past trends. The author concludes that the achievement of population policy goals will involve making abortion and sterilization laws more restrictive, changing policies concerning incentives and disincentives, and altering the emphasis of the family planning program from demographic to social welfare objectives.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20114 United Nations. Secretariat (New York, New York). Chinese population growth in a global perspective. Population Bulletin of the United Nations, No. 17, 1985. 39-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The present paper is intended to discuss how the United Nations has utilized the 1982 population census (including the 10 per cent sample tabulations) and other relevant data obtained from China in order to assess the current and future population growth in the country, and also to examine how the demographic trends of the world may change according to the alternative demographic paths China may take in the future." Following an analysis of the 1981 upturn in fertility, "three variants of population projections were prepared on the assumption that the present effectiveness of government interventions on the reproductive behaviour of the population will remain unchanged in the future. More specifically, the percentage of women who already had one child and pledged not to have any more, that is, 42.3 per cent, was used, in conjunction with parity progression ratios obtained from the 1982 census, as guidance to project future fertility trends. In addition, three variants were added to reflect the possible intensification or relaxation in the implementation of the population policy by the Government in the future."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

53:20115 Dumas, Jean. And then, the dinosaurs disappeared... [Et puis, les dinosaures ont disparu...] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 267-75 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper starts by putting the present fertility decline experienced by many industrialized countries, in a global prospect of social evolution, and shows to what extent this decline is a new phenomenon. Using a so-called 'infernal' scenario, wherein Canadian fertility continues to fall, the author then emphasizes that society would have at its disposal a remarkably long delay for bending the path leading to extinction, although some forces may also lead to an acceleration of the demographic decline."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20116 Henripin, Jacques; Pelletier, Louis. A quarter of Quebecois born outside Quebec 100 years from now? [Un quart d'allogenes au Quebec dans 100 ans?] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 227-51 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
The authors examine the implications of reliance on immigration to halt the probable onset of population decline in the Canadian province of Quebec. The results indicate that achieving a growth rate of either one percent or zero growth involves a large increase in immigration and that the percentage of the population born outside the province would reach a high level in both cases.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20117 Kamiar, Mohammad. Population size, distribution and growth in Iran. Population Geography, Vol. 7, No. 1-2, Jun-Dec 1985. 1-17 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
The author examines population size, distribution, and growth in Iran using data for 1966, 1976 census data, and some historical data for the nineteenth century. "This paper discusses changes in the size of population through time, population distribution, and regional patterns of population growth of the 23 provinces. It has been argued in this paper that because of a large family size norm as a religious duty to increase the numbers of the Islamic faith, early age at marriage, especially among females, common practice of polygamy, and the war with Iraq, population will grow even faster. It is concluded that population policy must be integrated into the national development plans."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20118 Kowaleski, Jerzy T. Factors in the increase of the Australian population, 1911-1984. [Skladniki przyrostu ludnosci Australii w latach 1911-1984.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 3/85, 1986. 51-63 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
The author examines natural increase and migration in Australia from 1911 to 1984. During this period, with the exception of the years 1949 and 1950, natural increase contributed more to population growth than did net migration. Net migration has, however, contributed an increasing amount to total population growth in Australia since World War II; the author suggests that if the fertility of recent immigrants is taken into account, migration may be accountable for more than 50 percent of the population increase. It is noted that this trend may continue as growing numbers of immigrants come from regions with traditionally high fertility levels.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

53:20119 Teitelbaum, Michael S. Depopulation: science and politics. [La depopulation: science et politique.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 15, No. 2, Oct 1986. 167-79 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
"This paper is structured around four propositions about population decline: (1) discussions about population decline have been plagued with confusion about the very meaning of the topic, as well as about causes, consequences and policy measures; (2) the issue is closely tied to political ideologies and cultural values; (3) demographic data and methods, and some prominent demographers, have played central roles in the debate; (4) the future of fertility is even murkier than usual, and therefore the legitimacy of concerns about population decline is not obvious."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1987-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.