Volume 52 - Number 4 - Winter 1986

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

52:40090 Houdaille, Jacques. The population of America before Christopher Columbus. [La population de l'Amerique avant Christophe Colomb.] Population, Vol. 41, No. 3, May-Jun 1986. 586-90 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Some problems concerning the estimation of the population of the Americas before the Spanish conquest are reviewed. The emphasis is on work conducted at the University of California, Berkeley, since the 1940s.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40091 Smolinski, Zbigniew. Population reproduction during Poland's millennium. [Reprodukcja ludnosci Polski w okresie tysiaclecia.] Wiadomosci Statystyczne, Vol. 31, No. 2, Feb 1986. 6-10 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
An attempt is made to summarize birth and death rates as well as population growth, life expectancy, gross reproduction rates, and theoretical birth rates for Poland during its 1,000-year history. The author concentrates on estimates for the period from the year 1000 to 1900, since the rates and coefficients for the twentieth century are much better documented and are well known.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

52:40092 Asian Research Service (Hong Kong). Current data report on China's human resources. LC 86-113074. 1985. vi, 128 pp. Hong Kong. In Eng.
This report is designed to complement a map entitled "China's Human Resources" and contains explanatory notes, maps, and diagrams. The map and report are based on data from the Chinese census of 1982. The report presents the statistical data on which the map is based, provides background information on the population situation, and highlights the main findings of the census.
Chapters are included on spatial distribution, population density, urban population, regional population growth, nationalities, household size and sex ratio, population by area, educational level and employment, age structure, vital rates, marital status, population projections, comparisons of national censuses, and population policy.
This report is available from Asian Research Service, G.P.O. Box 2232, Hong Kong.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40093 Carrilho, Maria J. The resident population of Portugal: intercensal estimates, 1971-1980. [Populacao residente em Portugal: estimativas intercensitarias, 1971-1980.] INE Folhas de Divulgacao, Jun 1986. 29 pp. Instituto Nacional de Estatistica, Centro de Estudos Demograficos: Lisbon, Portugal. In Por.
Intercensal estimates of the resident population of Portugal for the period 1971-1980 are presented. Methodological aspects are first reviewed. Tabular data are then provided by sex and district, estimated on June 30 and December 31 for each year of the period studied. Three separate growth patterns are identified. Also included are a discussion of illegal migration as well as tabulated data on fertility, mortality, population growth, migration, and the sex ratio.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40094 Chile. Instituto Nacional de Estadisticas [INE] (Santiago, Chile). Population estimates as of June 30 and December 31, 1984, by region, province, community, and city. [Poblacion estimada al 30 de junio y 31 de diciembre de 1984, segun regiones, provincias, comunas y ciudades.] Mar 1984. 19 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Official population estimates for 1984 are presented for Chile.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:40095 Denmark. Ministeriet for Gronland (Copenhagen, Denmark). The population of Greenland, January 1, 1986. [Gronlands befolkning, 1. Januar 1986.] [1986]. 88 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Dan; Esk.
Population estimates for Greenland are presented for 1986 using data from the population registers developed by the Danish statistical authorities. The data concern population by age and sex for towns, counties, communities, and settlements.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40096 Felton, Gilbert R. Evaluation of population estimation procedures for counties: 1980. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 984, Sep 1986. v, 65 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This is the last in a series of reports presenting the results of the evaluation of population estimation procedures used by the [U.S.] Bureau of the Census during the 1970 decade....[It] covers a summary of earlier county population evaluations, a discussion of problems with the 1980 estimates evaluation, and suggests changes that should be made for the 1980 decade. Consideration has been given to the problem of relating the estimates (based on the 1970 census) to a 1980 census count that appears to have inconsistencies with the 1970 census results. Evaluations have been made both with and without adjustments to compensate for the differential coverage of the two censuses."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40097 Griffin, Kenneth M. Four methods of estimating small populations: a comparison. Pub. Order No. DA8429665. 1984. 81 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
"The purpose of this study is to examine the efficiency of population estimators when applied to small populations. Efficiencies of a two-stage simple unbiased estimate, ratio, difference, and regression estimates were compared based on ten samples of different sizes drawn from...[an urban U.S. population in 1973 and 1976]. Results of the samples were also compared to the known population parameters."
The author finds "the regression method to be superior to the other methods examined in this study based on relative efficiency. That is, the regression method produced a smaller variance for a given sample size....Where data are available in the appropriate form, the regression method should be considered as an alternative to other population estimating methods."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Louisiana Tech University.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 45(10).

52:40098 Land, Kenneth C.; Hough, George C. Improving the accuracy of intercensal estimates and postcensal projections of the civilian noninstitutional population: a parameterization of institutional prevalence rates. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 393, Mar 1986. 62-74 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors first note that current official U.S. population estimates and projections are based on the assumption that certain characteristics of the institutionalized population remain constant between censuses. The article "examines the empirical validity of this assumption by using data from the decennial censuses for 1940-1980 and, in light of substantial decade to decade changes in the age patterns of the institutional proportions for sex- and race-specific populations, seeks to develop alternative methods."
As part of these alternative methods, "parametric curves are fit to the age-specific institutional proportions for each population for each decade. A study of the observed historical variation in the parameters of these curves then leads to some suggestions about how their shapes can be estimated between censuses and projected beyond the latest available census to provide more accurate estimates and projections of the civilian noninstitutional population."
This is a revised version of a paper originally presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 439).
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

52:40099 Peru. Instituto Nacional de Estadistica. Direccion General de Demografia (Lima, Peru). Peru: estimates and projections of the population by calendar years and single years of age for the period 1970-2000. [Peru: estimaciones y proyecciones de la poblacion por anos calendarios y edades simples del periodo 1970-2000.] Boletin Especial, No. 7, Dec 1984. 54 pp. Lima, Peru. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Peru for the period 1970-2000. They are organized by sex and single years of age as well as by five-year age group. Separate data concerning fertility are provided in an appendix.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40100 Rees, Philip; Woods, Robert. Demographic estimation: problems, methods and examples. In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. ISBN 0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 301-43 pp. George Allen and Unwin: Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
"In this chapter we have attempted to outline some of the issues the demographic researcher has to confront when investigating populations that vary over space, as well as some of the techniques that may be employed in estimating the data needed for such investigations." Elements considered include "(a) the concepts used in defining the population stocks and flows; (b) the age-time frameworks adopted; (c) the spatial frameworks used; and (d) the temporal and accounting frameworks employed."
These concepts are applied to two examples. "The [first] example involves the estimation of external migration flows for 20 United Kingdom regions [for the period 1976-1981]....The second example concerns regional demographic variation and change in a developing country, India."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40101 Smith, Stanley K. A review and evaluation of the housing unit method of population estimation. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 394, Jun 1986. 287-96 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The housing unit (HU) method is used by public and private agencies throughout the United States to make local population estimates. This article describes many of the different types of data and techniques that can be used in applying the HU method, and it discusses the strengths and weaknesses of each. Empirical evidence from four different states is provided, comparing the accuracy of HU population estimates with the accuracy of other commonly used estimation techniques. Several conclusions are drawn regarding the usefulness of the HU method for local population estimation."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

52:40102 Stern, Mikael. Census from heaven? Population estimates with remote sensing techniques. Meddelanden fran Lunds Universitets Geografiska Institution Avhandlingar, No. 99, ISBN 91-7222-989-6. 1985. 128 pp. University of Lund, Department of Geography: Lund, Sweden. In Eng.
The value of using modern remote sensing techniques to gather population data is explored using the example of the Kordofan province in the Sudan. "The basic idea was founded on the assumptions that people live in villages and that the sizes of the villages are correlated to the number of inhabitants. Thus, the investigation demanded data on population and settlement sizes. The former were collected through field work in Kordofan, whereas the latter were obtained from Landsat MSS data."
The emphasis of the study is on the value of automatic as opposed to manual analysis of the images obtained by remote sensing. The superiority of manual techniques is stressed. Consideration is also given to the correlation between settlement size and population.
This study was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at Lund University.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40103 United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). The school-age population by sex and single year of age, by country, 1950-2000. [Poblacion en edad escolar segun sexo y edades simples, por paises, 1950-2000.] Boletin Demografico/Demographic Bulletin, Vol. 19, No. 38, Jul 1986. 146 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Eng; Spa.
This issue "presents information on school age population (between 5 and 24 years) by sex and single ages for the period 1950-2000, for the 20 countries that form the territory that is called Latin America...." Data are primarily from official national sources. A table presenting estimates of the total population by country for the period 1950-2025 for years ending in zero and five is also included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40104 United Nations. Department of International Economic and Social Affairs (New York, New York). World population prospects: estimates and projections as assessed in 1984. Population Studies, No. 98; ST/ESA/SER.A/98, Pub. Order No. E.86.XIII.3. ISBN 92-1-151159-3. 1986. x, 330 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
Global estimates and projections of population, based on the 10th round of the global demographic assessments undertaken by the United Nations, are presented. The estimates are primarily derived from official national data that have been evaluated and adjusted as necessary. Chapters are included that describe the methods, data, and assumptions used and provide a summary of the major findings. The data are presented first by major subject, including medium, high, and low variants of total population and annual rate of change by region, country, or area; crude birth and death rates; fertility rates; life expectancy rate; and infant mortality rate. The data are then organized by major area and region and by country.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40105 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Estimates of the population of the United States, by age, sex, and race: 1980 to 1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 985, Apr 1986. iii, 56 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents estimates of the population of the United States by single years of age, sex, and race for each year from July 1, 1980, to July 1, 1985; comparable census figures are also shown for April 1, 1980. Estimates are shown for the total population including Armed Forces overseas, the resident population, and the civilian population."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40106 United States. Bureau of the Census (Washington, D.C.). Provisional estimates of the population of counties: July 1, 1985. Current Population Reports, Series P-26: Local Population Estimates, No. 85-52-C, Aug 1986. 19 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report presents provisional estimates of the total population as of July 1, 1985, for 3,138 counties and county equivalents in the United States (including census areas in Alaska, parishes in Louisiana, the District of Columbia, and independent cities in Maryland, Missouri, Nevada, and Virginia)."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40107 Verhoef, R.; Tas, R. F. J. Demography of the Netherlands, 1985. [Demografie van Nederland 1985.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 7, Jul 1986. 22-44 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
A review of the population situation in the Netherlands in 1985 is presented based on official data. It is noted that the Netherlands is the most densely populated Western country and that the total population will continue to increase until the year 2004. Topics covered include trends in the foreign population, fertility, natural increase, international migration, nuptiality, and demographic aging.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

52:40108 Abumere, S. I. The future population of the Federal Capital Territory, Abuja. Nigerian Journal of Economic and Social Studies, Vol. 26, No. 3, Nov 1984. 287-313 pp. Ibadan, Nigeria. In Eng.
The author projects population to the years 1990 and 2000 for the Federal Capital Territory (FCT) of Nigeria and for the region of Abuja. The methodology used is outlined and seven different projections are presented, with figures provided separately for regions within the FCT. The scenarios considered include one assuming a growth rate similar to the past growth rate of Lagos and one based on growth rates seen in Brasilia, Brazil. Attention is given to the relative contributions of natural increase and in-migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40109 Alho, Juha M. Interval estimates for future population. In: American Statistical Association, 1985 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1985]. 44-51 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This paper presents an approach to describing the accuracy of forecasts of total population size that "allows for a larger subjective input and applies to populations disaggregated by age and sex. The same methods can be used to analyse forecasts of subgroups of a population." Age-specific fertility rates in the United States, 1957-1979, and their mixed predictions for 1980-1994 are presented, and interval estimates of the 1995 U.S. female population are calculated.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40110 Attia, Shadia S. M. Projection of the urban/rural population of Egypt 1980-2000. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 213-40 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author uses the urban-rural growth rate difference and cohort-survival methods to project the total urban and rural population, the urban and rural age and sex composition, and the components and corresponding rates of growth of Egypt by five-year intervals for the period 1980-2000. Data are from the 1960 and 1976 censuses, U.N. and other projections, and the Coale-Demeny South model life tables.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40111 Calot, Gerard. French demographic perspectives. Futures, Vol. 18, No. 2, Apr 1986. 242-57 pp. Guildford, England. In Eng.
This article, translated from the original French, describes how official population projections are made in France and outlines probable developments up to the year 2050. It is stated that mortality rates are unlikely to change significantly and that assumptions concerning fertility are critical to future population projections. Attention is also paid to the impact of demographic aging. The author "presents a comprehensive view of possible futures for the French population and, by way of comparison, the demographic evolutionary paths of other European countries."
For the original French-language article, published in 1983, see 50:10129.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:40112 Canada. Quebec (Province). Bureau de la Statistique du Quebec (Quebec, Canada). The demographic future of Quebec. [L'avenir demographique du Quebec.] ISBN 2-551-08976-X. 1985. 219 pp. Quebec, Canada. In Fre.
An analysis of the most recent population projections for the province of Quebec is presented. These projections are based on data from the 1981 census of Canada. The study includes a review of recent population trends in the province since 1951. Chapters are included on regional differences, trends in age and sex distribution, the development of certain subpopulations, spatial distribution by region, households, and long-term trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40113 Chaudhry, Mahinder. Population policy target of net reproduction rate of unity by 2000: how realistic? Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 21, No. 48, Nov 29, 1986. 2,100-5 pp. Bombay, India. In Eng.
The author examines the likelihood that a net reproduction rate (NRR) of one can be achieved in India by the year 2000. Noting the tendency to exaggerate the rate of fertility decline in previous official population projections, the author critically reviews the latest of these projections, which was published in March 1984. A review of other population projections concerning India made by the World Bank, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the United Nations, and R. H. Cassen is also presented.
The author concludes that "the elusive goal of NRR = 1 will be achieved in India during the latter part of the first decade of the next century when the total national population will have crossed the billion mark. This conclusion seems contrary to many repeated assertions that 'India can anticipate a net reproductive rate of unity by the end of this century'...."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40114 Dinh, Quang Chi; Labat, Jean-Claude. The aging of the French population is inevitable. [Le vieillissement de la population francaise est ineluctable.] Economie et Statistique, No. 190, Jul-Aug 1986. 5-15, 87, 89 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Probable population trends in France up to the year 2000 are explored. "Between now and the year 2000, the French population will grow by three or four million. There will be 12 million persons over the age of 60, as compared to 10 million today. The working population will be more numerous, but older. Only the number of young people is difficult to estimate, because of the uncertainty concerning the birth rate." The demographic consequences of alternative fertility trends are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40115 France. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE] (Paris, France). Projection of the foreign population. [Projection de la population etrangere.] Premiers Resultats, No. 65, Jun 1986. 4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
An attempt is made to project the future growth of the foreign population resident in France up to the year 2010. A distinction is made between migrant workers and family members. Data are presented separately by nationality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40116 Guatemala. Direccion General de Estadistica (Guatemala City, Guatemala); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica); Canadian International Development Agency [CIDA] (Ottawa, Canada). Guatemala: population estimates and projections, 1950-2025. [Guatemala: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/GUAT, No. 1; LC/DEM./CR/R.1, LC 85-187794. Jan 1985. vii, 162 pp. San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
Estimates and projections of the population of Guatemala are presented for the period 1950-2025 based on data from the 1981 census and subsequent vital statistics data. The methodology used is first outlined, and estimates for the major demographic indicators in the period 1950-1980 are provided. Four alternative projections to the year 2025 are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40117 Hablicsek, Laszlo; Monigl, Istvan; Vukovich, Gabriella. Some long-term population trends in Hungary in the period 1880-2001. [A magyarorszagi nepessegfejlodes nehany hosszu tavu jellemzoje 1880-2001 kozott.] Demografia, Vol. 28, No. 4, 1985. 403-57 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
Some long-term trends in the dynamics of the population of Hungary from 1880 to 2001 are examined in order to project possible developments following the year 2000. The emphasis is on the number and characteristics of the population and on trends in fertility and mortality. The authors note that the demographic transition is now complete and that the 1990s will be a period of population decline unless an effective pronatalist population policy can be developed resulting in a demographic revival. Even if such a policy is developed effectively, there will be a significant aging of the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40118 Hugo, Graeme. Australia's changing population: trends and implications. ISBN 0-19-554680-6. 1986. x, 354 pp. Oxford University Press: Melbourne, Australia. In Eng.
An attempt is made to forecast future population trends in Australia, with emphasis on the period up to the year 2001. The analysis is based primarily on data from the 1981 census. The focus is on likely changes in population characteristics rather than on total numbers. Separate consideration is given to mortality, fertility, immigration, internal migration, demographic aging, family characteristics, ethnic groups, and the labor force. The purpose of the book is to provide the information needed for social and economic planning.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40119 Jayet, Hubert; Le Jeannic, Thomas. Regional demographic growth: the disparities are slowly decreasing. [Croissance demographique regionale: les disparites s'attenuent legerement.] Economie et Statistique, No. 190, Jul-Aug 1986. 17-27, 87, 89 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Differences in probable population developments in France by region up to the year 2000 are examined. The authors note that the West and Southeast of the country will still be the regions likely to grow more rapidly and that the Northeast and Ile-de-France will be the regions of slowest growth. However, overall, such regional differences are likely to become increasingly less pronounced.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40120 Kennedy, John M.; De Jong, Gordon F.; Lichter, Daniel T. Updating local area population projections with current migration estimates. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 14, No. 2, Jul 1986. 107-20 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"In this paper, we describe a strategy for generating or updating county level population projections, using current age-sex-race-specific migration estimates derived from U.S. Bureau of the Census current population estimates. Our strategy focuses on projecting local area patterns of net migration and is illustrated using a cohort-component projection model for counties in Pennsylvania."
Following a consideration of the advantages of five-year age-sex-race-specific migration rates derived from the retrospective question concerning residence on the 1980 census, the authors discuss "the use of middecade 1985 population estimates as a benchmark for generating updated 1980-1985 migration rates by age-sex-race for each Pennsylvania county. Finally, we describe a migration typology, based on changes between 1975-1980 and 1980-1985 in county total net migration patterns, which is used to generate future population projections to the year 2000."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40121 Louvot, Claudie. Projections of the number of households, 1985-2010. [Projections du nombre de menages 1985-2010.] Premiers Resultats, No. 71, Aug 1986. 4 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Projections up to the year 2010 of households in France are presented. Data are from the 1982 census and other official sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40122 Matthiessen, Poul C.; Christensen, Hans S.; Svarre, Anders. Denmark's population trends until the year 2000. [Danmarks befolkningsudvikling frem til ar 2000.] ISBN 87-88099-20-2. LC 85-232664. [1984?]. 80 pp. Rolighed: Skodsborg, Denmark. In Dan.
These are the proceedings of a conference held in 1984 on future population developments in Denmark. It is noted that current and recent fertility has been significantly below replacement levels and that a decline in the population of about 10,000 per year is forecast by 2050 if current trends continue. The need to develop policies to encourage childbearing during the next 15 years is discussed. Such policies would include more day-care centers, kindergartens, and schools.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40123 Nandy, Shekhar. Department of the Environment (DOE) household projections. Statistical News, No. 75, Nov 1986. 20-2 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This article briefly describes the basis of the method of household projections developed by the Department of the Environment and touches on some of the problems and shortcomings." The projections concern England and Wales only.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:40124 Nordisk Statistisk Sekretariat (Copenhagen, Denmark). Nordic seminar on projection. Lejondals Palace, Sweden, September 24-27, 1984. [Nordiska seminariet om prognoser. Lejondals slott, Sverige, 24-27 september 1984.] Tekniske Rapporter, No. 37, ISBN 87-88083-21-7. 1985. 258 pp. Copenhagen, Denmark. In Dan.
These are the proceedings of a seminar on aspects of population projection held in Sweden in September 1984 involving the countries of Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden. Topics covered include the uncertainties in population forecasts, projecting social change, labor force projections, political aspects, the provision of services for the sick and aged, and the need for better data concerning births, deaths, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40125 Paraguay. Secretaria Tecnica de Planificacion. Division de Poblacion y Recursos Humanos (Asuncion, Paraguay); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (San Jose, Costa Rica). Paraguay: population projections by sex and age. Country total, 1950-2025; urban and rural, 1970-2000; total, urban, and rural economically active population, 1970-2000. [Paraguay: proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y edad. Total del pais 1950-2025; urbana y rural 1970-2000; poblacion economicamente activa total, urbana y rural 1970-2000.] Fasciculo F/PAR, No. 1; E/CEPAL/CELADE/L.6, Nov 1983. 116 pp. United Nations, Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
Population estimates and projections are presented for Paraguay for the period 1950-2025 by sex and age group. The projections are provided separately for rural and urban populations up to the year 2000. Projections of the labor force are also included and are based on data available prior to the 1982 census results.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40126 Pullum, Thomas W.; Graham, Stephen N.; Herting, Jerald R. How to forecast public school enrollments. American Demographics, Vol. 8, No. 10, Oct 1986. 52-4 pp. Ithaca, New York. In Eng.
A method of projecting future levels of school enrollment is presented based on the experience of the Seattle school district in the state of Washington.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40127 Rees, Philip. Choices in the construction of regional population projections. In: Population structures and models: developments in spatial demography, edited by Robert Woods and Philip Rees. ISBN 0-04-301200-0. LC 85-30642. 1986. 126-59 pp. George Allen and Unwin: Boston, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
The author investigates the effects of two sources of variation that affect population projections: "the accounting framework employed in the population projection, and the way in which the system of regions being studied is closed. A set of empirical experiments using a United Kingdom...twenty-zone system [is] used to tease out the significance of these sources of variation." The resulting projections for the year 2006, including distribution by zone and age distribution, are presented in tabular form.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40128 Rogers, Andrei. Parameterized multistate population dynamics and projections. JASA: Journal of the American Statistical Association, Vol. 81, No. 393, Mar 1986. 48-61 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This article reports progress on the development of a population projection process that emphasizes model selection over demographic accounting. Transparent multiregional/multistate population projections that rely on parameterized model schedules are illustrated [using data primarily from a number of developed countries, particularly Sweden], together with simple techniques that extrapolate the recent trends exhibited by the parameters of such schedules."
The author notes that "the parameterized schedules condense the amount of demographic information, expressing it in a language and variables that are more readily understood by the users of the projections. In addition, they permit a concise specification of the expected temporal patterns of variation among these variables, and they allow a disaggregated focus on demographic change that otherwise would not be feasible."
Location: Princeton University Library (SM).

52:40129 Scanlon, Rosemary; Ilan, Amos. A forecast of employment, labor force and population in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region to 1995. Apr 1986. 47 pp. Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, Planning and Development Department, Regional Research Section: New York, New York. In Eng.
An attempt is made to project trends over the next 10 years in employment, labor force, and population in the New York-New Jersey metropolitan region. Data are from official U.S. sources and estimates prepared by the Port Authority. The forecast indicates that the region's labor force will grow only about three-quarters as fast as the number of jobs. "About two-thirds of labor force growth will be accounted for by women, and virtually all labor force growth will be accounted for by minorities." The consequences of these trends are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40130 Spencer, Gregory. Projections of the Hispanic population: 1983 to 2080. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 995, Nov 1986. v, 85 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This report presents the first official projections of the Hispanic population of the United States by age, sex, and race for the years 1983 to 2080. "These projections are based on July 1, 1982, population estimates and race definitions and are projected forward using the cohort-component method with alternative assumptions for future fertility, mortality, and net immigration. The ultimate levels assumed for these Spanish-origin components are identical to those of the race groups in the national projections....Details of the assumptions and methods used in this report are presented in later sections of this text."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40131 Szkola Glowna Planowania i Statystyki. Instytut Statystyki i Demografii (Warsaw, Poland). Demographic models and projections. [Modele i prognozy demograficzne.] Monografie i Opracowania, No. 126, 1983. 215 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
This work consists of four parts. The first part, by Ryszard Zasepa, Lech Boleslawski, and Marek Olko, deals with methods for projecting the size and structure of the population and their application to projections for Poland. The second part, by Bartlomiej Kaminski, Marek Okolski, and Marcin Rybicki, presents a simulation model of fertility in Poland. The third part, by Maria Cieslak, Ireneusz Kuropka, and Stanislawa Ostasiewicz, examines sequential methods for making projections. A final part, by Teresa Bazanska and Ryszard Zasepa, considers methods for projecting the number and structure of households.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40132 Thailand. National Economic and Social Development Board. Working Group on Population Projections (Bangkok, Thailand). Population projections for Thailand, 1980-2015. Oct 1985. 61 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
This report contains population projections for Thailand up to 2015. The projections are presented by age and region as well as for the population as a whole. The data are taken from the 1980 census, the Survey of Population Change, recent contraceptive prevalence surveys, and other official sources.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40133 Wu, Cangping. A preliminary study on the strategy of population development in China. Population Research, Vol. 3, No. 2, Apr 1986. 1-8 pp. Beijing, China. In Eng.
The author surveys several prospective paths of population development in China in the twenty-first century and assesses alternative strategies and targets. Comparisons among official Chinese, U.N., and World Bank projections are presented in a table. In considering appropriate population policies, the author concludes that "the policy of advocating one child per one couple is the policy for one generation only, and it is likely proper to advocate around 2000 no more than two children for one couple or a gradual recovery of fertility to the replacement level, which will be kept sustained."
This is a translation of the Chinese article in Renkou Yanjiu (Beijing, China), No. 5, 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40134 Yusof, Baharum. Population projection by ethnicity for Peninsular Malaysia 1985-2015 and some of its implications. In: Studies in African and Asian demography: CDC annual seminar, 1985. CDC Research Monograph Series, No. 15, 1986. 711-36 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author presents projections of the population of Peninsular Malaysia by ethnic distribution to the year 2015. Vital registration and census data are used to describe the changes in fertility, 1960-1980, and average life expectancy, 1970-1978, and to make fertility and mortality projections. The implications of the projections in terms of age structure, infant mortality, and education are briefly discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

52:40135 Ivanova, Olga. Natural population movement by nationality in the Socialist Republic of Macedonia in the period 1953-1980. [Prirodno kretanje stanovnistva u SR Makedoniji po narodnostima u periodu 1953-1980.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 148-58 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author compares the rates of natural increase in 1971 for the Macedonian, Albanian, and Turkish populations in Macedonia. Declines in the crude birth rate and in the mortality rate between 1953 and 1971 are observed. Data for the period 1971-1980 are also presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40136 Masevska, Sonja. Trends in natural population movement at the commune level in the Socialist Republic of Macedonia in the period 1953-1979. [Promene u prirodnom kretanju stanovnistva na nivou opstina u SR Makedoniji u periodu 1953-1979.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 159-78 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author presents vital statistics by commune for Macedonia for 1953, 1961, 1971, and 1979. Trends in general mortality, infant mortality, fertility, and natural increase are noted, and regional variability is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40137 McIntosh, C. Alison; Crane, Barbara B. Population decline: a threat to the West? Family Planning Perspectives, Vol. 18, No. 5, Sep-Oct 1986. 234-8 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The authors comment on issues recently raised concerning the trend of population decline observed in the United States and Europe. Particular attention is given to a paper by Ben J. Wattenberg and Karl Zinsmeister and to another by Allen Kelley, both of which were presented at a December 1985 American Enterprise Institute symposium; aspects of the discussion that followed are also covered. Issues in the areas of strategic demography, population and international power, and appropriate policy responses to declining fertility are discussed.
The authors' assessment of the current depopulation discussion is essentially critical. They "believe that the arguments currently circulating are alarmist and rest on poorly justified assumptions....[and] question the value of appeals based on cultural nationalism and fears of other people's numbers."
For the papers by Wattenberg et al., and by Kelley, published in 1986, see 52:30141.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40138 Proebsting, Helmut; Fleischer, Henning. Population trends, 1985. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung 1985.] Wirtschaft und Statistik, No. 8, Aug 1986. 582-7 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The authors present official data for the Federal Republic of Germany for 1985 concerning marriages, births, deaths, and international migration. Findings include a slight surplus of births for the foreign population and a continuing birth deficit for the German population as well as a net in-migration for Germans and a net out-migration for foreigners. The totals indicate a net decrease of 29,000 for the total population.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:40139 Rancic, Miroljub. Migration, urbanization, and natural population increase. [Migracije, urbanizacija i prirodno kretanje stanovnistva.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 22-23, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1984-1985. 5-13 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes the interrelationships between reproduction, natural increase, migration, and urbanization in Yugoslavia between 1920 and 1981. The implications for population policy are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:40140 Vukotic, Veselin. Population reproduction in urban areas and other agglomerations in Montenegro. [Reprodukcija stanovnistva u gradskim i ostalim naseljima u Crnoj Gori.] Stanovnistvo, Vol. 20-21, No. 1-4, Jan-Dec 1982-1983. 99-112 pp. Belgrade, Yugoslavia. In Scr. with sum. in Eng.
The author reviews trends in population reproduction in Montenegro, Yugoslavia. Data are presented on fertility, mortality, and natural increase for the period 1961-1981. The conflict between individual and social reproductive goals is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1986-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.