Volume 52 - Number 3 - Fall 1986

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

52:30802 Artzrouni, Marc; Komlos, John. Population growth through history and the escape from the Malthusian trap: a homeostatic simulation model. Genus, Vol. 41, No. 3-4, Jul-Dec 1985. 21-39 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ita.
"A Malthusian simulation model is proposed to describe the growth of human population from the Neolithic through the Industrial Revolution. The economy is composed of a subsistence sector and a capital-producing sector. Our model captures the 'incessant contest' between population growth and the means of subsistence. When the per capita agricultural output falls below a biological minimum, the growth rate of the population is subject, in a random fashion, to perturbations that can take on disastrous proportions."
It is suggested that "the slow accumulation of capital (and the buildup of the population of the capital-producing sector) eventually enables the population to overcome the constraints of the hostile economic environment. Our simulations (complete with confidence intervals) yield numerically realistic estimates of the population that eventually escapes from the Malthusian menace and grows unhindered during the Industrial Revolution."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30803 Barkalov, N. B. Modeling the demographic transition. [Modelirovanie demograficheskogo perekhoda.] LC 84-226218. 1984. 77, [2] pp. Izdatel'stvo Moskovskogo Universiteta: Moscow, USSR. In Rus.
The problems involved in modeling a population that is in a state of transition, particularly with regard to fertility, are examined. The practical problems of extrapolating calculations on the basis of discrete models, the preparation of statistical data, the calculation of parameters, and the reconciliation of models with aggregated variables are discussed. The author proposes a trend model of the dynamics of the distribution of women by number of births that is reconciled with the model of changes in the age distribution of the population.
Location: U.S. Library of Congress, Washington, D.C.

52:30804 Haynes, Stephen E.; Phillips, Llad; Votey, Harold L. An econometric test of structural change in the demographic transition. Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Vol. 87, No. 3, 1985. 554-67 pp. Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The structural change model of the demographic transition developed by Easterlin and others is explored empirically by applying the Brown, Durbin and Evans test of structural change to annual data from the transitions of Sweden, Norway, England and Wales, and Finland. The evidence strongly supports the structural change model over traditional models (based on gradual changes in explanatory variables), indicating a supply response of fertility to declining illness and death during the early stages of transition, and a demand response to the death of children during the latter stages, when families are likely to have achieved desired size."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30805 Jenkins, Stephen. The implications of 'stochastic' demographic assumptions for models of the distribution of inherited wealth. Bulletin of Economic Research, Vol. 37, No. 3, Sep 1985. 231-44 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper extends existing distributional models to incorporate two sets of 'stochastic' demographic assumptions: (a) where the number of heirs is randomly determined, and (b) where the gender of a given child is randomly determined (but the total number of heirs is non-stochastic). The consequent increase in heterogeneity of family types might be expected to increase the inequality of family wealth and reduce the degree of inter-generational inheritance, relative to the 'deterministic' case, but it is shown that this conclusion is very much conditional on the other assumptions made; about the pattern of marriage and estate division in particular."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30806 Kim, Young J. Examination of the generalized age distribution. Demography, Vol. 23, No. 3, Aug 1986. 451-65 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The generalized age distribution for any population in continuous time obtained by Bennett and Horiuchi (1981) and Preston and Coale (1982) is derived in the discrete time formulation in the first part of this paper. Other expressions that follow from the age distribution in Preston-Coale are also presented in discrete time and age. Then the Preston-Coale procedure of using these expressions to estimate mortality when demographic data are defective is critically examined." A reply by Samuel H. Preston and Ansley J. Coale (pp. 463-5) is included.
This paper was originally presented at the 1985 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 51, No. 3, Fall 1985, p. 422).
For the paper by Preston et al., published in 1982, see 51:30774.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30807 McMillen, David B.; Beaumont, Paul. Demographic-economic models of population change. In: American Statistical Association, 1984 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 304-8 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
After reviewing the theoretical literature on demographic-economic interactions, the authors describe the ECESIS model, developed by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. This model comprises an economic sector, a demographic accounting sector, and a migration sector. The demographic-economic linkages existing in ECESIS, the missing links, and problems with data quality are discussed. The geographic focus is on the United States.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30808 Namboodiri, Krishnan. An application of the input-output model in demographic analysis. In: American Statistical Association, 1984 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1984]. 309-13 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"The present paper outlines a macro-approach to the study of demographic phenomena, without reference to individual-level perceptions or pleasure-pain calculations. For the present purpose, a macro framework is understood to deal with total societies rather than subsocietal entities...." A static and a dynamic model for a closed, low-technology society are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30809 Pflaumer, Peter. Stochastic population models for the analysis of the effects of demographic processes on social security systems. [Stochastische Bevolkerungsmodelle zur Analyse der Auswirkungen demographischer Prozesse auf die Systeme der sozialen Sicherung.] Allgemeines Statistisches Archiv, Vol. 70, No. 1, 1986. 52-74 pp. Gottingen, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
The aim of this paper is to describe several methods for quantifying the amount of uncertainty inherent in population forecasts used to assess the impact of demographic processes on social security systems. Each method is briefly outlined, and its advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The primary emphasis is on stochastic population models, and the geographic focus is on the Federal Republic of Germany.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:30810 Pressat, Roland. Demographic analysis: concepts, methods, results. [L'analyse demographique: concepts, methodes, resultats.] 4th rev. ed. ISBN 2-13-037781-5. LC 85-673553. 1983. vii, 295 pp. Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
This reference volume concerning quantitative demographic analysis is organized into four parts. In the first section, fundamental concepts are outlined using demographic tables and principles of generational and cohort analyses. The second part is concerned with empirical data and the calculation of rates. Topics examined in the third part include mortality, life tables, nuptiality and divorce, fertility, birth history analysis, and migration. In the final section, population structure and reproduction, theoretical population models, and population projections are discussed. The emphasis throughout is on methodology.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30811 Schoen, Robert. The two-sex multiethnic stable population model. Theoretical Population Biology, Vol. 29, No. 3, Jun 1986. 343-64 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
This paper is concerned with a variety of rules for determining the ethnicity of intergroup births in a two-sex multiethnic stable population model based on the ethnicities of the mother and father. "Numerical examples are presented for a two-ethnic-group population in cases where intergroup births are shared equally by the two groups, are all considered members of one particular group, and are all members of the father's group. A special case of a more general model, where sons become members of the father's group and daughters become members of the mother's group, is also considered."
The results show that where intermarriage is common, the process by which ethnicity is determined can substantially influence the ethnic composition of the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:30812 Wagner, Gert. A simulation system for establishing life cycles: the longitudinal version 82.w of the Sfb 3 microsimulation system. [Ein Simulationssystem zur Erzeugung von Lebenslaufen: die Langsschnittversion 82.w des Sfb 3 Mikrosimulationssystems.] Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 11, No. 4, 1985. 593-623 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"In this paper a special version of the Sfb 3 microsimulation model is documented and discussed. The longitudinal version 82.w is developed for the analysis of the actuarial fairness of the statutory pension insurance funds [in the Federal Republic of Germany]." The focus is on simulating life cycle phases. Problems in using such models are examined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

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