**52:20710** **Blalock,
Hubert M.** *Cross-level analyses.* In: The collection
and analysis of community data. WFS seminar on collection and analysis
of data on community and institutional factors, 20-23 June 1983, edited
by John B. Casterline. 1985. 187-206 pp. International Statistical
Institute [ISI]: Voorburg, Netherlands; World Fertility Survey [WFS]:
London, England. In Eng.

The author seeks to summarize some of the
important points from the diverse literature of the social sciences
concerning cross-level analyses and, in particular, contextual-effects
models. Implications of the methodology for research design are
considered. The intent is to make technical, methodological
discussions accessible to those conducting empirical
research.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20711** **de Beer, J.
A. A.** *Turning points in demographic trends.*
[Omslagpunten in demografische trends.] Maandstatistiek van de
Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 2, Feb 1986. 29-33 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands.
In Dut. with sum. in Eng.

A method for estimating demographic
turning points using spline functions is described. It involves using
a nonlinear least squares method to estimate the points in time at
which such turning points occur. "The method is employed for assessing
turning points in the trends of the numbers of live births, deaths,
marriages, immigrants, emigrants and internal migrants after the Second
World War in the Netherlands. In general the trends can be described
adequately by specifying three turning points after
1950."*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20712** **Hakulinen,
Timo; Abeywickrama, Kamal H.** *A computer program package
for relative survival analysis.* Computer Programs in Biomedicine,
Vol. 19, No. 2-3, 1985. 197-207 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.

A computer program package that is designed for use in patient
survival analyses for chronic diseases based on aggregated data is
presented. The central concept in the analysis is the relative
survival rate, which measures patient survival adjusted for the effect
of mortality attributable to the competing risks of death without using
data on causes of death for individual patients. The package can also
be used for conventional survival and competing risk
analyses.*Location:* U.S. National Library of Medicine,
Bethesda, Md.

**52:20713** **Hill,
Catherine; Laplanche, Agnes; Rezvani, Ali.** *Comparison of
the mortality of a cohort with the mortality of a reference population
in a prognostic study.* Statistics in Medicine, Vol. 4, No. 3,
Jul-Sep 1985. 295-302 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.

A method of
cohort analysis that can be used with either mortality or morbidity
data to compare incidence or death rates in a cohort to rates in a
reference population is described. An example using data on a cohort
of patients with thyroid cancer is given.*Location:* U.S.
National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

**52:20714** **Hobcraft,
John; Murphy, Mike.** *Demographic event history analysis: a
selective review.* Population Index, Vol. 52, No. 1, Spring 1986.
3-27 pp. Princeton, New Jersey. In Eng.

This is a selective review
of the literature concerning demographic event history analysis. "We
have attempted to emphasize work that we consider to be particularly
important or innovative, to note some of the difficulties that may
arise with the use of event history analysis, and to point to several
substantive areas where research is still poorly
developed."*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20715** **Kotowska,
Irena.** *Demographic-economic models and their
usefulness.* [Modele demoekonomiczne i ich uzytecznosc.] Studia
Demograficzne, No. 4/82, 1985. 73-89 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with
sum. in Eng; Rus.

"The main purpose of the article is to discuss
[the] usefulness of demographic modelling for demographic forecasting
and for policy making and planning. The considerations concern the
chosen group of the models named economic-demographic models. These
quantitative models describe economic-demographic interaction in the
development process." Problems concerning the use of these models are
considered.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20716** **Marques,
Manuel P. de O.** *A methodology for estimating the number of
graduates.* [Metodologia para a previsao de diplomados.] Revista do
Centro de Estudos Demograficos, No. 26, 1983-1984. 11-47 pp. Lisbon,
Portugal. In Por. with sum. in Eng; Fre.

A methodology for
estimating the number of graduates in Portugal is presented. The model
is tested using incomplete data available concerning primary
education.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20717** **Paszek,
Barbara.** *The aggregation of demographic phenomena with
respect to concurrence risks.* [Agregacja zdarzen demograficznych z
uwzglednieniem ryzyk konkurencyjnych.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 4/82,
1985. 91-103 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol. with sum. in Eng; Rus.

The
possibilities of defining net probabilities of concurrence risks for
various aggregated demographic phenomena are explored. Formulas that
define the probability of the sequence of occurrences of demographic
events in the case of aggregated phenomena are
derived.*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20718** **Pollak,
Robert A.** *A reformulation of the two-sex problem.*
Demography, Vol. 23, No. 2, May 1986. 247-59 pp. Washington, D.C. In
Eng.

"The ability of classical stable population theory to
determine the equilibrium growth rate and age structure of a population
from its vital rates in a single period depends on assuming that the
observed maternity rates are equilibrium rates. This paper resolves
the two-sex problem by replacing the fixed, age-specific fertility
schedule of classical stable population theory by two basic
relationships: a 'birth matrix' and a 'mating rule.'".

By placing
certain restrictions on the birth matrix and the mating rule (BMMR),
the author establishes "that under certain plausible conditions, the
BMMR model solves the two-sex problem by allowing matings and births to
adjust to changes in population structure. The BMMR model thus
provides an equilibrating mechanism in place of a fixed maternity
schedule of classical stable population theory."*Location:*
Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20719** **Rogers,
Andrei; Willekens, Frans.** *Migration and settlement: a
multiregional comparative study.* GeoJournal Library, ISBN
90-277-2119-X. LC 85-25626. 1986. xix, 496 pp. D. Reidel: Dordrecht,
Netherlands. Distributed by Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, Hingham,
Mass. In Eng.

This book is the result of an eight-year project
developed by the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis
(IIASA) in Laxenburg, Austria, involving a comparative study of
multi-regional population dynamics. The project, known as the Migration
and Settlement Study, involved both work done at IIASA and in the
cooperating countries. The book consists of a series of papers by
individual authors. The primary focus is methodological.

The first
two chapters describe the organization, methodology, and data and
accounting frameworks for the 17 countries and 139 regions included in
the study. Chapters are then presented on the components of change,
including mortality, fertility, and migration. Next, multi-regional
analyses are presented concerning population projections up to the year
2000; case studies of population dynamics in the United Kingdom, the
USSR, and Canada; and the relationship between migration and urban
change. A final section includes four papers on multi-regional
mathematical demography, with chapters included on life tables and
spatial population dynamics.*Location:* Princeton University
Library (SPR).

**52:20720**
**Sivamoorthy, M.** *A simple proof of the weak
ergodicity theorem in demography.* Janasamkhya, Vol. 2, No. 1, Jun
1984. 39-43 pp. Kariavattom, India. In Eng.

"The proof of weak
ergodicity of the age distribution has been given by Lopez using matrix
algebra and also by McFarland using an elementary approach. This paper
presents a simple proof of the theorem using the law of averages. The
assumptions involved are almost the same as those assumed by
McFarland."*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

**52:20721**
**Waltisperger, Dominique; Roger, Gilles.** *Stable and
destabilised populations.* [Populations stables, populations
destabilisees.] Development Centre Papers, Feb 1986. 218 pp.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development [OECD],
Development Centre: Paris, France. In Eng; Fre.

This report is
published in conjunction with a program of the French Groupe de
Demographie et du Developpement that was designed to make easily
accessible to demographers the various methods currently in use to
analyze imperfect statistics. "The purpose of this booklet is to
outline two sets of theoretical models which will be used to test the
analytical methods: models of stable structures--populations, deaths;
[and] models of destabilised structures taking account of declining
death or fertility rates, or the simultaneous decline of both. All of
these structures were calculated with reference to the mortality models
published by the OECD Development Centre in 1980. The predominantly
Muslim regional model (Region A) was employed."

This report is "an
analytical handbook reviewing the whole range of available methods and
techniques, and detailing the demonstrations upon which they are
based....As a rule, these methods are based on specific assumptions
(stable population, for example) which are rarely corroborated in
reality. Our intention is to measure what effect non-conformity with
the assumptions has on the results yielded by such
methods."*Location:* Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1986-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.