Volume 52 - Number 2 - Summer 1986

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

52:20082 Ricklefs, M. C. Some statistical evidence on Javanese social, economic and demographic history in the later seventeenth and eighteenth centuries. Modern Asian Studies, Vol. 20, No. 1, Feb 1986. 1-32 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
The available sources of data on Java, Indonesia, before the Dutch conquest are reviewed. These data concern the period 1680 to 1742 and are from the archives of the Dutch East India Company and other Javanese sources. Some population estimates using the available data are presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

52:20083 Scholch, Alexander. The demographic development of Palestine, 1850-1882. International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4, Nov 1985. 485-505 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
An attempt is made to describe demographic trends in Palestine from 1850 to 1882 using data from Ottoman sources. The focus is on the quality of the available data. The author concludes that the period was one of economic, social, and political transformation, accompanied by a period of accelerated population growth. The population in 1882 was around 470,000, an increase of approximately one-third over the period studied.
Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

52:20084 Segura, Antoni; Suau, Jaume. The demographic history of Majorca. [La demografia historica de Mallorca.] Boletin de la Asociacion de Demografia Historica, Vol. 4, No. 1, Mar 1986. 52-88 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa.
Data from parochial records, censuses, and other sources are analyzed to study the demographic changes that occurred between 1590 and 1789 in the Spanish island of Majorca. Topics covered include population density, spatial distribution, urbanization, infant mortality, and fertility. A bibliography of 86 references is included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20085 Seyf, Ahmad. Middle Eastern demographic trend in the nineteenth century--a critical note. Middle Eastern Studies, Vol. 21, No. 1, Jan 1985. 33-44 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The author examines evidence concerning population growth in the Middle East in the nineteenth century. The concern is primarily with the relationship between the prevalent economic system, in this instance, irrigation-dependent agriculture, and population. Several studies pertaining to territories that were included in the Ottoman Empire in the nineteenth century are reviewed.
The author concludes with "the suggestion that in the context of Middle Eastern agriculture a hypothesis of population growth can be accepted only if it is supported by hard evidence pertaining to agricultural development. The interaction between population and agricultural development is particularly reinforced by the fact that the non-farm sector of the Middle Eastern economies experienced considerable decline during the nineteenth century."
Furthermore, "if the agricultural sector was as backward as it appeared to have been, it is unlikely that population could have increased to the extent that it has been claimed. In the absence of reliable data on population and agricultural production, one may not be able to be precise and conclusive about the actual demographic trends in the Middle East, nevertheless, in view of the available evidence--some of which is produced in this paper--the presence of powerful checks on population growth may be regarded as certain."
Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

52:20086 Shorter, Frederic C. The population of Turkey after the war of independence. International Journal of Middle East Studies, Vol. 17, No. 4, Nov 1985. 417-41 pp. New York, New York/Cambridge, England. In Eng.
An attempt is made to estimate the population of the Republic of Turkey in 1923, the year in which it was founded. The estimate is made using reverse population projection and data from the 1935 census. Consideration is also given to the quality of the data in the 1927 census, the demographic impact of the wars preceding independence, and the effect of Turkey's special demographic conditions on subsequent socioeconomic development, including agricultural development and the participation of females in the labor force.
Location: Princeton University Library (SY).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

52:20087 Association pour les Etudes d'Amenagement et d'Urbanisme de la Reunion (Saint-Denis, Reunion). General population census of 1974: region of Reunion. Results. [Recensement general de la population de 1974: region Reunion. Resultats.] [1983]. 101 pp. Saint-Denis, Reunion. In Fre.
Data from the 1974 census of Reunion are presented. The data are from the official machine-readable data tape compiled for the island and are presented by region and commune. Statistics concerning individuals, households, economic activity, and housing are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20088 Black, Robert W. Instead of the 1986 census: the potential contribution of enhanced electoral registers. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: General, Vol. 148, No. 4, 1985. 287-316 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Since local authorities have a particular need for accurate population information for small areas, they have developed various methods for obtaining up-to-date population data. The paper examines in some detail one technique, the enhancement of electoral registers, drawing up on the experience of [Scotland's] Strathclyde Regional Council. Conclusions are drawn regarding the effectiveness of this technique and its potential for further development in the United Kingdom."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

52:20089 Charbonneau, Hubert. Three centuries of change in the demographic calendar of the average Quebecois. [Trois siecles de transformation du calendrier demographique du Quebecois moyen.] Collection de Tires a Part, No. 200, [1985?]. [9] pp. Universite de Montreal, Departement de Demographie: Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
The author surveys various demographic trends and compares current indicators for Quebec with historical data for the eighteenth century. Observed changes are organized into the life stages of birth, childhood and adolescence, maturity, and old age. Central to many of the trends noted is the marked increase in life expectancy at all ages.
This article was reprinted from Presentation a la Societe Royale du Canada, No. 39, 1983-1985, pp. 47-55.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20090 Concepcion, Mercedes B. The Philippines: population trends and dilemmas. Philippine Population Journal, Vol. 1, No. 1, Mar 1985. 14-35 pp. Manila, Philippines. In Eng.
"National and regional variations in population growth rates [in the Philippines], age and sex composition, fertility and mortality measures, the numbers in the working age population and population distribution are described and their implications for future development outlined. The prospects for the next 20 years indicate a continuation and even exacerbation of regional imbalances in terms of birth, death and migration rates with the Mindanao area turning out to be the most demographically disadvantaged of the three island groups." Data are from a variety of official sources. The policy implications of these trends are noted.
Location: Johns Hopkins University, Population Information Program, Baltimore, Md.

52:20091 Costa Rica. Direccion General de Estadistica y Censos (San Jose, Costa Rica). The population of the Republic of Costa Rica by province, canton, and district. Estimate at January 1, 1984. [Poblacion de la Republica de Costa Rica por provincias, cantones y distritos. Estimacion al: 1 de enero de 1984.] Seccion de Publicaciones, No. 53, Pub. Order No. 700-9-84. 1984. 9 pp. San Jose, Costa Rica. In Spa.
An estimate of the population of Costa Rica as of January 1, 1984, is presented. Data are included on population by sex and province, canton, and district.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20092 Cuba. Comite Estatal de Estadisticas. Instituto de Investigaciones Estadisticas [INSIE] (Havana, Cuba). Principal demographic characteristics of the Cuban population in 1985. Population trends in the five-year period 1981-1985 and a comparison with those for 1976-1980. Perspective of population trends for the five-year period 1986-1990. [Principales aspectos demograficos de la poblacion cubana en el ano 1985. Evolucion de la poblacion en el quinquenio 1981-1985 y su comparacion con el de 1976-1980. Evolucion perspectiva de la poblacion para el quinquenio 1986-1990.] Mar 1986. 102 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
Recent population trends in Cuba are reviewed using official data. The first section presents a summary of the population situation in 1985. Next, sections are included on population growth, population characteristics, and spatial distribution in 1985. The components of population change are then analyzed, including fertility, mortality, internal migration, international migration, and nuptiality and divorce. Comparisons are made among various recent five-year periods, and consideration is given to likely trends during the period 1986-1990. Some international comparisons are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20093 France. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]. Division Mouvement de la Population et Etudes Demographiques (Paris, France). The demographic situation in 1985. [Bilan demographique de 1985.] Premiers Resultats, No. 53, Jan 1986. 4 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The demographic situation in France in 1985 is summarized using data from official sources. Separate consideration is given to marriages, divorces, births, deaths, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20094 France. Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques [INED] (Paris, France). Demographic trends in France compared. [L'evolution demographique comparee de la France.] Population et Societes, No. 200, Mar 1986. [1-3] pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Demographic trends in France are compared with those of the Federal Republic of Germany, Italy, Japan, the United Kingdom, and the United States for the period 1950-1985. The comparisons concern fertility, the dependency burden, mortality, nuptiality, and natural increase. An age pyramid of the population of France in 1986 is included together with a summary of demographic indicators for the period 1980-1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20095 Gottschalk, Helmut. Current methodological problems of official population estimates. [Aktuelle methodische Probleme der amtlichen Bevolkerungsfortschreibung.] Berliner Statistik: Monatsschrift, Vol. 39, No. 9, 1985. 258-63 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Current methodological problems in producing official population estimates for West Berlin and for the rest of the Federal Republic of Germany are discussed. The focus is on the problems of comparability caused by the recent change from one definition of the population ("resident population") to another ("population at place of primary residence").
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20096 Gottschalk, Helmut. Population development in West Berlin, 1984. [Bevolkerungsentwicklung in Berlin (West) 1984.] Berliner Statistik: Monatsschrift, Vol. 39, No. 9, 1985. 264-71 pp. Berlin, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
Information is presented on population trends in West Berlin in 1984. Some comparative statistics for earlier years are also provided. Topics covered include population decrease, marriages, births, illegitimate births, deaths, infant mortality, causes of death, internal and international migration, and population trends by district. Separate data for the German and foreign populations are included in many cases.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20097 Katzoff, Myron J.; Malec, Donald. Application of some common spatial models to population data. In: American Statistical Association, 1983 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1983]. 522-4 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper demonstrates the application of some results of a study of models and methods for assessing spatial autocorrelation in the context of small-area post-censal estimation to the problem of estimating county population sizes in the years following a [U.S.] Decennial Census. One reason for our concern with spatial autocorrelation is the potential for overstating the significance of results when it is present."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20098 Maung, M. Ismael K. The population of Burma: an analysis of the 1973 census. Papers of the East-West Population Institute, No. 97, ISBN 0-86638-077-9. LC 86-8966. Apr 1986. vii, 32 pp. East-West Center, Population Institute: Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"Drawing primarily on data from the 1973 Census, this paper describes recent trends in Burma's population, including population growth and distribution, the age structure and ratio of males to females, marriage practices and trends, composition of ethnic groups, literacy and educational attainment, labor force characteristics, and recent fertility and mortality. For contextual background, it also describes historical, geographic, and recent political conditions. Preliminary data from the 1983 Census are included where appropriate."
Explanations for recent growth trends are presented, and anticipated future developments are outlined. It is also noted that "the large-scale emigration of foreign residents (mainly Indians and Chinese) in recent years has caused the population to become preponderantly indigenous but has also created a shortage of professional and administrative personnel and has not solved the problem of interethnic tensions."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20099 Merrick, Thomas W. World population in transition. Population Bulletin, Vol. 41, No. 2, Apr 1986. 52 pp. Population Reference Bureau: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
An overview of global population trends is presented. Current vital rates for the world's regions are first reviewed, and estimates of probable future trends over the next 100 years are provided. Separate sections are included on the relationship between population growth and living standards, the prospects for a consensus on the debate concerning the relationship between population growth and economic development, and fertility decline in developing countries. The population prospects of five key countries, namely, China, India, Nigeria, Mexico, and the Federal Republic of Germany, are examined separately.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20100 Navunisaravi, N. B.; Naroba, V. Population 1983. Statistical Bulletin of the South Pacific/Bulletin Statistique du Pacifique Sud, No. 26, Aug 1985. 58 pp. South Pacific Commission: Noumea, New Caledonia. In Eng; Fre.
This is the fourth in a series of statistical bulletins that present a summary of demographic data for the South Pacific region. The data are organized to facilitate comparisons among countries. Data are included on population by sex, growth rate, and density since 1900; population by area, sex, growth rate, and density at the two most recent censuses; urban and rural population; ethnic groups; age distribution; marital status; family size; school attendance; religion; and mid-year population estimates, 1974-1983.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20101 O'Connor, Anthony. Population growth in Kenya. Espace, Populations, Societes, No. 3, 1985. 482, 563-6 pp. Villeneuve d'Ascq, France. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
The author uses official and other published sources to analyze recent demographic trends in Kenya. In particular, he notes Kenya's high fertility level and asserts that "the population is probably now increasing more rapidly in Kenya than in any other country--apart from certain small countries such as Kuwait which are experiencing much net in-migration." Attention is given to crude birth rates, desired family size, maternal age, the age structure of the population, and regional variations in the demographic trends.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20102 Potter, Joseph E. Methods of demographic estimation: successes and perspectives. [Metodos para la estimacion demografica: logros y perspectivas.] Working Paper/Documento de Trabajo, No. 15, May 1983. 20 pp. Population Council, Latin America and Caribbean Regional Office: Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa.
The author offers a personal viewpoint on the state of the art of demographic estimation techniques. Where possible, reference is made to applications in Latin America, with a focus on opportunities for analysis in Brazil. Variables considered include infant and child mortality, adult mortality, fertility, and migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20103 Swanson, David; Tedrow, Lucky M. Improving the measurement of temporal change in regression models used for county population estimates. In: American Statistical Association, 1983 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1983]. 525-6 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors examine the ratio-correlation method, a frequently used regression method for estimating U.S. county populations. "A description of the ratio-correlation and its logical inconsistency is first given. Following this description are a proposed transformation of the ratio-correlation form that is designed to eliminate the logical inconsistency, an empirical evaluation of a series of estimates produced by the original and transformed regression forms, and a discussion and summary of the results."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20104 Verma, Ravi B. P.; Basavarajappa, K. G.; Bender, Rosemary K. The regression estimates of population for sub-provincial areas in Canada. In: American Statistical Association, 1983 proceedings of the Social Statistics Section. [1983]. 512-7 pp. American Statistical Association: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
The authors describe two sets of post-censal population estimates that are published yearly by the government of Canada. The estimates are for census divisions and census metropolitan areas and appear 3 to 4 months and 12 to 15 months following the reference date.
"The regression technique uses family allowance recipients as the main symptomatic indicator and where available, additional indicators...to derive population change for the current year. The first set is obtained by adding this change to the second set for the previous year produced by the component method, with births and deaths from vital registers, and estimated migration from Revenue Canada taxation files. The two sets were found to be statistically similar, though the first set is more timely, and the second providing more details on the components of population change."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20105 Wegman, Myron E. Annual summary of vital statistics--1984. Pediatrics, Vol. 76, No. 6, Dec 1985. 861-71 pp. Evanston, Illinois. In Eng.
This is the latest in a series of annual summaries of vital statistics for the United States, together with some international comparisons. The U.S. data are from the National Center for Health Statistics, and the international data are from U.N. sources. Separate sections are included on births, marriages and divorces, deaths, infant mortality, and international comparisons.
For a previous review, published in 1984, see 51:40081.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

52:20106 Young, Christabel. Canberra--the demographic experiment. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 2, No. 2, Nov 1985. 85-103 pp. North Sydney, Australia. In Eng.
"The aims of this paper are to describe the demographic outcome of the early patterns of growth of...[Canberra, Australia], and to illustrate the way in which refinements in the measurement of demographic events can provide a more accurate picture of the true situation than occurs from crude measures. Much of the discussion is based on a comparison of the demographic situation in the ACT [Australian Capital Territory] with that in the nearest State capital city, Sydney, or with total Australia." Information is included on age structure, mobility, socioeconomic status, fertility, divorce, female labor force participation, and child care.
"The ACT population has always been considered to be different from that of the other capital cities and from the overall population of Australia, and in many respects this is true. At the same time, however, recent data suggest that the ACT population profile is now converging towards the Australian experience."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

52:20107 Andre, R.; Guilmot, P.; Pereira, J.; Sow, T. The population of the four major urban areas of Wallonia up to the year 2001. [La population des quatre grandes villes de Wallonie a l'horizon 2001.] Population et Famille, No. 57, Nov 1985. 61-86 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
Future prospects for the populations of four major towns of French-speaking Belgium, Charleroi, Liege, Mons, and Namur, up to the year 2001 are reviewed. Particular consideration is given to likely changes in the age distribution of the population. The authors note that all of the six scenarios considered project both a decline in population and an aging of the population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20108 Andrianarivelo Rafrezy, Vincent; Randretsa, Iarivony. The population of Madagascar: the current situation and the outlook for the future. [Population de Madagascar: situation actuelle et perspectives d'avenir.] Jan 1985. 154 pp. Ministere de la Recherche Scientifique et Technologique pour le Developpement: Antananarivo, Madagascar. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The authors analyze the current demographic situation in Madagascar using official data and other published sources. Population trends and population characteristics, including age and sex distribution, marital status, educational status, and household size are discussed. Attention is given to fertility, mortality, and natural increase.
Three variant population projections for Madagascar for the years 1975-2000 are discussed, and three projected population pyramids are presented. Outlooks for the country's anticipated needs in terms of health, education, and food supply are examined.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20109 Armitage, R. I. Population projections for English local authority areas. Population Trends, No. 43, Spring 1986. 31-40 pp. London, England. In Eng.
The methods used to prepare 30-year population projections for the larger local authority areas of England are described. Consideration is given to the assumptions made concerning future trends in fertility, mortality, and, in particular, migration. A comparison is made with earlier projections.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20110 Cruijsen, H. G. J. M. Population forecasts for the Netherlands, 1985-2035. [Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland, 1985-2035.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 34, No. 3, Mar 1986. 33-41 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Some results from the most recent official population forecasts for the Netherlands for the period up to 2035 are presented. These projections were prepared using a cohort-component model, and provide forecasts for individual years of age, sex, and marital status. The assumptions used in their preparation are described. Three variants are presented for the forecasts, of which the medium variant is considered the most probable.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20111 de Vries, A. S. W. Population forecasts--pre-calculation or miscalculation? [Demografische prognoses--vooruitberekening of misrekening?] Economisch-Statistische Berichten, Vol. 69, No. 3481, Nov 14, 1984. 1,068-75 pp. Rotterdam, Netherlands. In Dut.
The author reviews the accuracy of seven forecasts of the expected population of the Netherlands in 1980 that were made between 1950 and 1980 and compares them with the official estimates for that year. The author concludes that the errors were so substantial that the forecasts would not have been of much value for planning purposes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20112 Han, Kyun Hyung. Estimation of major city population in Korea using Landsat imagery. Pub. Order No. DA8522912. 1985. 124 pp. University Microfilms International: Ann Arbor, Michigan. In Eng.
An economical method for estimating the urban population of the Republic of Korea is developed. "The model presented here uses census data and measures of the urban built-up area obtained from Landsat images to estimate population using regression analysis. It is concluded that with this model, the population estimates of major South Korean cities are very reliable and that it is also possible to estimate the populations of North Korean cities. Besides estimating the population of Korean cities, this method can be adapted to any area in the world where physical and political barriers prohibit population counts."
This work was prepared as a doctoral dissertation at the University of Utah.
Source: Dissertation Abstracts International, A: Humanities and Social Sciences 46(8).

52:20113 Hollis, John; Hills, Carole; Longhurst, Ian. The 1985 round of demographic projections for Greater London. GLC Statistical Series, No. 52, ISBN 0-7168-1664-4. 1986. ii, 22, [400] pp. Greater London Council: London, England. In Eng.
"This report presents the results of the 1985 round of population, household and economically active population projections for Greater London, the borough groups and the London boroughs. The work incorporates the major results of the 1981 Census in terms of migration and household headship as well as the population trends established by the OPCS mid-year estimates from 1981 to 1984 and the estimates of future numbers of dwellings in each of the London boroughs from 1984 to 1991."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20114 Kapotsy, Bela. Hungarian population forecasts: an international comparison. [Magyar nepesedesi tavlatok: nemzetkozi osszehasonlitas.] Katolikus Szemle, Vol. 36, No. 4, 1984. 327-51 pp. Rome, Italy. In Hun.
Population forecasts for Hungary up to 2021 are compared using official Hungarian data and data from the United Nations and the U.S. Bureau of the Census. Comparisons are also made with forecasts for other European countries. Consideration is given to the effects of legal abortion on fertility and to the effects of the more restrictive legislation concerning abortion adopted in 1974. The relationship between current demographic trends, including high divorce and mortality rates, and long-term socioeconomic developments, particularly the decline in the size of the labor force, is discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20115 Keilman, Nico. Nuptiality models and the two-sex problem in national population forecasts. European Journal of Population/Revue Europeenne de Demographie, Vol. 1, No. 2-3, Jul 1985. 207-35 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper describes the two-sex problem in nuptiality models, focussing on applications in national population forecasts. Requirements for a realistic two-sex marriage model are mentioned, together with additional considerations important in the context of official forecasts. Recent nuptiality models violate the requirements to a certain extent and/or do not meet the additional considerations. A new model, used in the 1980-based population forecasts of the Netherlands compiled by the Netherlands' Central Bureau of Statistics, is described."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20116 Keyfitz, Nathan. Demography in the twenty-first century: the uses of forecasting. In: International Population Conference/Congres International de la Population, Florence, 1985, 5-12 June/juin, 1985. Vol. 1, ISBN 2-87108-005-4. 1986. 59-81 pp. International Union for the Scientific Study of Population [IUSSP]: Liege, Belgium. In Eng.
The role of the demographer in forecasting the future is explored. The limits to the demographer's ability are noted, and consideration is given to unsolvable problems. The author uses Western European fertility data to illustrate the concept of ex ante error and to examine the problem of setting outer bounds on possible error in population forecasting. Mortality data for Indonesia are then used to illustrate how population forecasting can reveal significant patterns in data that are not readily apparent.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20117 Linke, Wilfried. Population forecasts and reality. In: Population growth as a global problem. 5th International Demographic Seminar, Berlin, November 20-22, 1984. Scientific programme. Part two, edited by P. Khalatbari. Humboldt Universitat zu Berlin Berichte, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1986. 48-55 pp. Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Economics, Demography Unit: Berlin, German Democratic Republic. In Eng.
The author surveys various attempts to estimate world population as early as the 1600s and comments on a comparison of projected and actual results. A distinction is made between population forecasts and model computations; the limits and contributions of each are considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20118 Mader, R.; Bilek, V. A model for projecting population dynamics using variable mortality rates based on selected causes of death. [Model pro projekci populacniho vyvoje pri promennych umrtnostech dle vybranych pricin smrti.] Ceskoslovenske Zdravotnictvi, Vol. 33, No. 10, Oct 1985. 426-34 pp. Prague, Czechoslovakia. In Cze. with sum. in Eng; Rus.
A model for the projection of the age distribution of a population based on various assumptions concerning fertility and causes of death is developed. The model, POPUL, is tested using official Czechoslovak data for five major causes of death.
Location: U.S. National Library of Medicine, Bethesda, Md.

52:20119 Marchand, Olivier. Projections of the available labor force, 1985-2010. [Projections de population active disponible 1985-2010.] Premiers Resultats, No. 52, Jan 1986. 4 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Projections of the labor force of France up to the year 2010 are presented using data from official sources, including the 1982 census and employment surveys conducted between 1968 and 1985.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20120 Mukerji, S. Population of Andhra Pradesh and its districts on the way to zero population growth. Demography India, Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1985. 138-45 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
A mathematical procedure for population projection that requires few demographic inputs is presented. Using this procedure, the population of each district of Andhra Pradesh, India, is projected for the census years 1981-2031. Deviations from zero population growth between 1921 and 1981 are calculated, and the possibility of reaching zero population growth by 2031 is considered.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20121 New Zealand. Department of Statistics (Wellington, New Zealand). New Zealand subnational population projections 1986-2006 (1981-base). Pub. Order No. 03.008. 1985. 217 pp. Wellington, New Zealand. In Eng.
This report contains population projections by age and sex for various subnational areas of New Zealand, based on data from the 1981 census. Three alternative projections are presented for each area.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20122 Nicolini, Giovanna. On a method for demographic projections based on homogeneous areas. [Su un metodo per le previsioni demografiche basato sulla definizione di aree omogenee.] Quaderni di Sociologia, Vol. 31, No. 1, 1984. 116-36 pp. Turin, Italy. In Ita.
A method designed to reduce errors in population forecasting is presented. Internal migration is taken into account in this procedure. The method involves the identification of homogeneous areas with similar demographic characteristics and takes into account the social and economic factors that may affect migration. Data for the province of Novara, Italy, for 1979 are used to demonstrate the procedure.
Location: New York Public Library.

52:20123 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyra (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population projections, 1985-2050: regional figures. [Framskriving av folkemengden 1985-2050: regionale tall.] Norges Offisielle Statistikk, No. B 583, ISBN 82-537-2285-0. 1986. 212 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Eng; Nor.
"This publication contains new population projections [for Norway] by sex, age and regions. For the whole country data are given up to the year 2050, while data for counties and municipalities are given up to the year 2010."
Three alternative estimates concerning fertility trends are used, but only one for international migration. "For internal migration, three different migration alternatives have this time been produced. In addition to three alternatives including migration, one alternative without any migration has been included. For deaths, the assumptions are the same for all the alternatives, a steady reduction in mortality towards the year 2000." A new table on percent population growth by municipality classification is included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20124 Pressat, Roland. Recent projections of world population. [Perspectives recentes sur la population mondiale.] Population, Vol. 41, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1986. 154-8 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
The author compares recent global population projections developed by the United Nations and the World Bank. The focus is on the different methods and assumptions used in each case.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20125 Steshenko, Valeria S.; Piskunov, Vladimir P. Some methodological problems of long-term population prognoses. In: Population growth as a global problem. 5th International Demographic Seminar, Berlin, November 20-22, 1984. Scientific programme. Part two, edited by P. Khalatbari. Humboldt Universitat zu Berlin Berichte, Vol. 6, No. 3, 1986. 32-47 pp. Humboldt University Berlin, Department of Economics, Demography Unit: Berlin, German Democratic Republic. In Eng.
The authors consider various limitations of theoretical population projection models for formulating population policies. The focus is on defining concepts.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20126 Yadava, K. N. S. Population projection up to the lower limit of the reproductive period. Demography India, Vol. 14, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1985. 146-50 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
A mathematical formula is developed to derive the size of a population at any designated time up to the lower limit of the reproductive period given an abrupt change in the maternity function.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

52:20127 Leete, R.; Kwok, K. K. Demographic changes in East Malaysia and their relationship with those in the Peninsula 1960-1980. Population Studies, Vol. 40, No. 1, Mar 1986. 83-100 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this article we use a range of indirect methods to construct a demographic profile of Sabah and Sarawak over the past 20 years. Comparisons are made between these areas and Peninsular Malaysia and some overall estimates for Malaysia are given. Considerable attention is given to evaluating the quality of the available data."
It is found that "between 1965 and 1980 there were large gains in life expectancy among the indigenous communities in Sabah and Sarawak, although their life expectancies are still shorter than those of the Chinese. Differentials in life chances between these regions and Peninsular Malaysia narrowed appreciably during the 1970s. Over the same period there were falls in levels of fertility. These were most spectacular among the Chinese communities and the groups living in and around the urban areas in Sarawak. There has been some decline in fertility among the indigenous groups in Sabah but current levels remain higher than among the indigenous groups in Sarawak and the Malays in the Peninsula."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:20128 Rowland, Richard H. Regional population redistribution in the USSR: 1979-84. Soviet Geography, Vol. 27, No. 3, Mar 1986. 158-82 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"The primary purpose of this paper is to assess very broadly the regional growth and redistribution of the total, urban and rural populations of the USSR, as well as aggregate, regional and city size patterns of urbanization for the 1979-84 period. In order to investigate the continuity or reversal of trends, comparisons with preceding intercensal periods will also be undertaken, particularly with the 1970-79 period."
It is found that "regional rates of population change between 1979 and 1984 were generally lower than those of 1970-79, primarily due to a general decline in natural increase rates. In addition, regional variations in rates of population change for the 1979-84 period were similar to those of the 1970-79 period....The USSR has apparently reversed its long-term trend of deconcentration in the sense that the population as a whole is becoming more concentrated again, but this time in a new area of concentration, Central Asia, which is now the most populous economic region."
Location: Princeton University Library (Maproom).

Copyright © 1986-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.