Volume 52 - Number 1 - Spring 1986

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models . Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

52:10101 Diop-Maes, Louise-Marie. An attempt to estimate population levels in Black Africa during the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries. [Essai d'evaluation de la population de l'Afrique noire aux XVe et XVIe siecles.] Population, Vol. 40, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1985. 855-89 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
An attempt is made to estimate population levels in sub-Saharan Africa before the coming of the slave-trade in the seventeenth century using data primarily from archaeological sources. The author develops the hypothesis that the African population of the fifteenth and sixteenth centuries was both of considerable size and growing. A commentary by Jean-Noel Biraben (pp. 884-8) argues that the data to support such a hypothesis are inadequate and that environmental conditions in Africa have always prevented the development of large and dense population concentrations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10102 Kito, Hiroshi. Population history of Japan's 2000 years. ISBN 4-569-20968-8. 1983. 206 pp. PHP Institute: Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Population trends in Japan over 2,000 years are reviewed. The focus is on the relationship between socioeconomic and demographic change. The first three chapters cover the period up to the nineteenth century. The final three chapters are concerned with the Edo period, for which considerably more data are available. In these, the author attempts to reconstruct the demographic outline of a preindustrial population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10103 Shineberg, Dorothy. A new look at the historical demography of New Caledonia. [Un nouveau regard sur la demographie historique de la Nouvelle-Caledonie.] Journal de la Societe des Oceanistes, Vol. 39, No. 76, Jun 1983. 33-43 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng.
The demographic history of New Caledonia is reviewed. The author concludes that the official data concerning Melanesians as reported in nineteenth-century censuses are flawed, thus invalidating most population trends based on these estimates. The massive depopulation that, according to the census data, took place during the nineteenth century did not in fact occur. Reasons for these errors and their general acceptance are discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

52:10104 Atoh, Makoto; Itoh, Tatsuya; Takahashi, Shigesato; Ishikawa, Akira. Re-estimation of the population by age and sex and vital rates in postwar Japan. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 176, Oct 1985. 1-17 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"In this study Japanese population by age and sex was re-estimated for the postwar years and both fertility and mortality rates were also re- estimated based on these revised populations." Using the cohort component method, the authors analyze data from seven censuses conducted between 1950 and 1980, adjusting for international migration. The revised population figures are then used to re- estimate age- and sex-specific death probabilities and to derive life table functions for the postwar years.
Problems with the reliability of the census data are emphasized, in particular the under-enumeration of the total population and of specific subgroups, and the bias in offical birthrate estimates arising from the procedure for estimating mid-year populations.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10105 Banister, Judith. The population of Vietnam. International Population Reports, Series P-95, No. 77, Oct 1985. iii, 43 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
A review of the current population situation in Viet Nam is presented. Topics covered include sources of population data; trends in population size and growth; population density and distribution; minority groups; international migration; official vital rates and their sources; health and mortality; marriage, family planning, and fertility; the reconstruction of population dynamics; and future prospects.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10106 Bartlema, Jan; Chackiel, Juan; Hill, Kenneth; Soliz, Augusto. Fertility and mortality in Bolivia: 1950-1976. In: Fertility and Mortality in Bolivia and Guatemala. Committee on Population and Demography Report, No. 28, 1985. 3-62 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.; National Research Council, Committee on Population and Demography: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one of two Latin American country case studies developed by the Panel on Latin America of the National Research Council's Committee on Population and Demography. It consists of a detailed study of fertility and mortality trends in Bolivia from 1950 to 1976. The data are from censuses, surveys, and vital statistics. The results indicate continuing high fertility and infant mortality and declining general mortality; the increasing rate of natural increase has been largely offset by an increase in emigration.
For a similar case study concerning Guatemala by Juan Chackiel et al., published in the same report, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10107 Booth, Heather. Fertility and mortality in Vanuatu. The demographic analysis of the 1979 census. Pacific Population Paper, No. 1, Nov 1985. xv, 75 pp. South Pacific Commission: Noumea, New Caledonia. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
A demographic analysis of data from the 1979 census of Vanuatu is presented. Available data sources, including the 1967 census, vital statistics, and hospital records, are first reviewed. Next, consideration is given to the quality of the 1979 census data. Chapters are then presented on the estimation of mortality and fertility. It is noted that, contrary to the situation in most populations, female mortality appears to be higher than male mortality. The study concludes by presenting actual estimates of mortality and fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10108 Brazil. Fundacao Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estatistica [IBGE] (Rio de Janeiro, Brazil); United Nations. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE] (Santiago, Chile). Brazil: population estimates and projections, 1950-2025. [Brasil: estimaciones y proyecciones de poblacion, 1950-2025.] Fasciculo F/BRA, No. 1; E/CEPAL/CELADE/R.2, Jul 1984. 85 pp. U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia [CELADE]: Santiago, Chile. In Spa; Por.
Population estimates and projections for Brazil for the period 1950-2025 are presented in table and graph form. Data are included on total population, population by age and sex, mortality, fertility, and life expectancy for the period 1950-1980, as well as projections for the period 1980-2025. The methodology used is described.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10109 Canada. Statistics Canada. Demography Division. Population Estimates Section (Ottawa, Canada). Postcensal annual estimates of population by marital status, age, sex and components of growth for Canada, provinces and territories, June 1, 1985. Vol. 3: third issue. [Estimations annuelles postcensitaires de la population suivant l'etat matrimonial, l'age, le sexe et composantes de l'accroissement, Canada, provinces et territoires au ler juin, 1985. Volume 3: troisieme edition.] Pub. Order No. 91- 210. Jan 1986. 102 pp. Ottawa, Canada. In Eng; Fre.
Estimates of the population of Canada are provided by age, sex, marital status, and province or territory. Data are also included by age and sex on the components of population growth, including births, deaths, and international and internal migration. The data on marriage and divorce provide an insight into current structural changes in marital status.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10110 Chackiel, Juan; Hill, Kenneth; Isaacs, Mario. Fertility and mortality in Guatemala: 1950-1973. In: Fertility and Mortality in Bolivia and Guatemala. Committee on Population and Demography Report, No. 28, 1985. 63-161 pp. National Academy Press: Washington, D.C.; National Research Council, Committee on Population and Demography: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is one of two Latin American country case studies developed by the Panel on Latin America of the National Research Council's Committee on Population and Demography. It consists of a detailed study of fertility and mortality trends in Guatemala from 1950 to 1973. The results indicate continuing high levels of both fertility and infant mortality; mortality has declined but remains high in comparison with other Latin American countries. Life expectancy increased significantly over the period under review.
For a similar case study concerning Bolivia by Jan Bartlema et al., published in the same report, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10111 Cuba. Comite Estatal de Estadisticas (Havana, Cuba). The population of Cuba has reached 10 million. [La poblacion de Cuba alcanza los 10 millones de habitantes.] Revista Estadistica, Vol. 7, No. 14, Dec 1984. 73-87 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This report, based on data from the 1981 census, notes that the population of Cuba reached 10 million in August 1984. A review of population trends since 1774 is included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10112 Cuba. Comite Estatal de Estadisticas. Instituto de Investigaciones Estadisticas [INSIE] (Havana, Cuba). Principal demographic aspects of the Cuban population in the year 1984. [Principales aspectos demograficos de la poblacion cubana en el ano 1984.] Apr 1985. iv, 57 pp. Havana, Cuba. In Spa.
This report contains tables, graphs, and a discussion of data on population growth, population density, composition by sex and rural and urban residence, spatial distribution, natural increase, fertility, mortality, internal and international migration, nuptiality, and divorce in Cuba in 1984. Appendixes contain information on the Cuban population between 15 and 29 years of age as well as international comparisons.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10113 Dommen, Arthur J. Laos in 1985: the year of the census. Asian Survey, Vol. 26, No. 1, Jan 1986. 112-7 pp. Berkeley, California. In Eng.
Some preliminary results from the 1985 census of Laos are presented. Population totals by province and sex are included.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPIA).

52:10114 Findl, Peter. Current data on population and employment: current trends in demographic development in the year 1984. [Aktuelle Daten zur Bevolkerung und Erwerbstatigkeit: aktuelle Trends der Bevolkerungsentwicklung im Jahre 1984.] Demographische Informationen, 1985. 81-90 pp. Vienna, Austria. In Ger.
Information is presented on population and employment trends in Austria in 1984. Some comparative data for earlier years are also provided. Topics covered include changes in population size, the decline in fertility, mortality and life expectancy, international migration and naturalizations, marriages and divorces, age structure, the dependency ratio, labor force participation, and families.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10115 Graham, John W.; Beller, Andrea H. A note on the number and living arrangements of women with children under 21 from an absent father: revised estimates from the April 1979 and 1982 Current Population Surveys. Journal of Economic and Social Measurement, Vol. 13, No. 2, Jul 1985. 209-14 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This note discusses two problems in the March/April Match Files of the CPS [Current Population Survey]. One is the overestimate of the population of [U.S.] women with children under 21 from an absent father and the consequent underestimate of the proportion of this population awarded, due, and receiving child support payments. The other is the large underestimate of the proportion of divorced, separated, and never-married mothers living as subfamilies. Corrected estimates for each of these items are obtained."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10116 Hache, Jean-Guy. A model for estimating the population of census districts and federal electoral districts. [Modele d'estimation de la population des divisions de recensement et des circonscriptions electorales federales.] Cahiers Quebecois de Demographie, Vol. 13, No. 2, Oct 1984. 339-46 pp. Montreal, Canada. In Fre.
A method for estimating population levels for subgroups when given data for the larger population is described. The author uses the method to estimate the population of those age 15-64 in the census districts of Canada for the intercensal period 1976-1980 using data for the provinces. The 1981 estimates are then compared to the actual 1981 census findings in order to assess the accuracy of the method.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10117 Hu, Huanyong. Population geography and population division of Xinjiang. Renkou Yanjiu, No. 1, Jan 29, 1984. 15- 20 pp. Beijing, China. In Chi.
While the northwest province of Xinjiang is China's largest province, its 1982 population of 13,080,000 comprises slightly more than one percent of the nation's total population. A brief description of Xinjiang's 10 population subdivisions includes data on total population and density, topography, and arable land. A chart summarizing this information is also presented.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).; Johns Hopkins University, Population Information Program, Baltimore, Md.

52:10118 Japan. Statistics Bureau (Tokyo, Japan). Population estimates as of October 1, 1984. Population Estimates Series, No. 57, 1985. 89 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng; Jpn.
Population estimates for Japan for 1984 are presented by age and sex, by prefecture and sex, and by prefecture, five-year age group, and sex.
For a previous report in this series, published in 1984, see 50:30099.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10119 Luxembourg. Service Central de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [STATEC] (Luxembourg). Recent demographic trends. [Evolution demographique recente.] Bulletin du STATEC, Vol. 31, No. 7, 1985. 178-86 pp. Luxembourg. In Fre.
The demographic situation in Luxembourg in 1984 is reviewed. Significant developments include a continuation of the decline in the number of marriages, a record number of divorces, and an increase in the number of births to those of Luxembourg nationality coupled with a decline in the foreign population.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10120 Monnier, A. Demographic trends: Europe and the developed countries overseas. [La conjoncture demographique: l'Europe et les pays developpes d'outre-mer.] Population, Vol. 40, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1985. 749-63 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent data from official and published sources are presented for 37 selected European and other developed countries. Information is included on population levels; numbers of births and deaths; rates of birth, mortality, infant mortality, fertility, nuptiality, and divorce; numbers of abortions; and life expectancy at birth by sex.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10121 Polska Akademia Nauk. Komitet Nauk Demograficznych (Warsaw, Poland). The 1984 report. The demographic situation in Poland. Natural movement and migration in Poland in 1983. [Raport 1984. Sytuacja demograficzna Polski. Ruch naturalny i wedrowkowy ludnosci Polski w 1983 roku.] Studia Demograficzne, No. 2/80, 1985. 67-126 pp. Warsaw, Poland. In Pol.
This is a report on the population situation in Poland in 1983 and on likely future developments. It consists of extracts from a longer report prepared by a government commission charged with the coordination of research on population policy issues.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10122 Rallu, Jean-Louis. The population of New Caledonia. [La population de la Nouvelle-Caledonie.] Population, Vol. 40, No. 4-5, Jul-Oct 1985. 725-44 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Developments in the population of New Caledonia since 1853, particularly recent trends, are analyzed using official statistics. Particular emphasis is given to differentials in growth rates among the three main subgroups of the population: the Melanesians, people of European descent, and other ethnic groups including Indonesians, Tahitians, and Wallisians. Internal and international migration and regional differentials are also discussed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10123 Shaikh, Kashem; Mostafa, G.; Bhuiya, Abbas; Sarder, A. M.; Molla, Ibrahim; Wojtyniak, Bogdan. Demographic Surveillance System--Matlab. Volume fourteen: vital events and migration--tables, 1983. ICDDR,B Scientific Report, No. 64, Dec 1985. 61 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This is the 14th volume of a series of scientific reports....It presents results of vital events and migration for the year 1983 of the Demographic Surveillance System (DSS), in the Matlab area of Bangladesh."
For Vol. 13, also published in 1985 by Susan Zimicki et al., see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10124 Shaikh, Kashem; Mostafa, G.; Sarder, A. M.; Wojtyniak, Bogdan. Demographic Surveillance System--Matlab. Volume twelve: vital events and migration--tables, 1982. ICDDR,B Scientific Report, No. 62, Aug 1984. 61 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
"This is the 12th volume in a series of scientific reports....It presents results of vital events and migrations for the year 1982 of the Demographic Surveillance System (DSS), in the Matlab area of Bangladesh."
For a previous report, published by Nridul K. Chowdhury et al., see 50:10111.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10125 Starsinic, Donald E. Patterns of metropolitan area and county population growth: 1980 to 1984. Current Population Reports, Series P-25: Population Estimates and Projections, No. 976, Oct 1985. iv, 65 pp. U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report contains provisional population estimates for July 1, 1984, for individual [U.S.] metropolitan statistical areas (MSA's) and their component counties and central cities, as defined by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB) through October 12, 1984. The report also contains April 1, 1980, census counts and a discussion of trends since 1980. Summaries for the United States, regions, divisions, and States are presented for the population in metropolitan areas, inside and outside central cities, and outside metropolitan areas. Selected data also appear for counties."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10126 United Kingdom. Scotland. Registrar General (Edinburgh, Scotland). 1984 population estimates, Scotland. ISBN 0-11-492469-4. 1985. 11 pp. Edinburgh, Scotland. In Eng.
"This booklet contains estimates of the population of Scotland by age, sex and area as at 30 June 1984."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10127 United States. Hawaii. Department of Planning and Economic Development. Research and Economic Analysis Division (Honolulu, Hawaii). Estimated population by age, sex, and counties, 1970-1982. Hawaii Statistical Report, No. 179, Nov 12, 1985. 20 pp. Honolulu, Hawaii. In Eng.
"This report presents 1970 to 1979 intercensal estimates and 1980 to 1982 postcensal provisional estimates of the resident population of Hawaii by age, sex, and county. The estimates, prepared by the Population Division of the U.S. Bureau of the Census, are for five-year age groups to age 85 and over."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

52:10128 Australia. Bureau of Statistics (Canberra, Australia). Projections of the population of the states and territories of Australia 1981 to 2021. Pub. Order No. 3214.0. May 9, 1983. iii, 24 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"This publication contains summary results of Australian, State and Territory population projections for the period 1981 to 2021, based on preliminary estimates of the population at 30 June 1981." Projected growth rates, population totals by state and territory, population distribution, and median ages are summarized.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10129 Cohen, Joel E. Population forecasts and confidence intervals for Sweden: a comparison of model-based and empirical approaches. Demography, Vol. 23, No. 1, Feb 1986. 105-26 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This paper compares several methods of generating confidence intervals for forecasts of population size. Two rest on a demographic model for age-structured populations with stochastic fluctuations in vital rates. Two rest on empirical analyses of past forecasts of population sizes of Sweden at five-year intervals from 1780 to 1980 inclusive." Variations in confidence intervals between methods and historical periods are noted.
"Procedures for estimating a range of confidence intervals are tentatively recommended. A major lesson is that finitely many observations of the past and incomplete theoretical understanding of the present and future can justify at best a range of confidence intervals for population projections. Uncertainty attaches not only to the point forecasts of future population, but also to the estimates of those forecasts' uncertainty."
An earlier version of this paper was presented at the 1984 Annual Meeting of the Population Association of America (see Population Index, Vol. 50, No. 3, Fall 1984, p. 443).
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10130 de Beer, J. A. A. Predictability of demographic changes in the short run. [Voorspelbaarheid van demografische ontwikkelingen op de korte termijn.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 33, No. 11, Nov 1985. 46-58 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The author discusses the value of univariate time series models to assess the accuracy of official short-term population forecasts in the Netherlands. "Three time series methods (exponential smoothing, ARIMA-model and structural time series model) are applied to Dutch data on live births, deaths, marriages, immigrants and emigrants." The data concern the period 1979-1984. The methods are also applied to data for the period 1970-1975 for comparative purposes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10131 Garcia, Agustin; Cubilla, Alvaro; Vissuetti, Ali; Medica, Vilma. Republic of Panama. Population projections by sex and age group: 1980-2025. [Republica de Panama. Proyecciones de poblacion por sexo y grupos de edad: anos 1980-2025.] Estadistica Panamena, Boletin, No. 903, Apr 29, 1983. 1-23 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
Population projections for Panama to the year 2025 are presented. The estimates are based on official data, including data from the 1980 census. Four alternative projections are provided.
Location: U.N. Centro Latinoamericano de Demografia, Santiago, Chile.; Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10132 Germany, Federal Republic of. Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und Raumordnung (Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of). Current data and forecasts of spatial development: population and households up to the year 2000. [Aktuelle Daten und Prognosen zur raumlichen Entwicklung: Bevolkerung und Haushalte bis 2000.] Informationen zur Raumentwicklung, No. 12, 1984. [203] pp. Bonn, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Ger.
This is a collection of papers on regional population trends and projections for the Federal Republic of Germany up to the year 2000. The papers are based on recent projections developed by the Bundesforschungsanstalt fur Landeskunde und Raumordnung. Individual papers deal with the model used in these regional projections, projections of private households, spatial differences in the effects of population trends up to the year 2000, and selected results of the regional projections.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10133 Keilman, N. W. Internal and external consistency in multidimensional population projection models. Environment and Planning A, Vol. 17, No. 11, Nov 1985. 1,473-98 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this paper the impact of consistency requirements upon the formulation of multidimensional population projection models is dealt with." Both internal and external consistency problems are considered. The paper provides internal and external consistency algorithms that control for stock and for flow variables. "Two approaches are discussed: a simple proportional adjustment for each relevant demographic component and an approach that minimises deviations in age-specific patterns of the input rates. Both algorithms are illustrated using data from the Netherlands."
Location: Princeton University Library (UES).

52:10134 Keyfitz, Nathan. A probability representation of future population. Zeitschrift fur Bevolkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 11, No. 2, 1985. 179-91 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany, Federal Republic of. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Ger.
A method for deriving population projections that are based on range rather than point estimates is applied to the case of Indonesia. Input parameters, including the initial conditions and the future birth, death, and migration rates are determined, and future fluctuations are assumed to be the same as past variations in the input parameters. A numerical distribution for the future is obtained by randomly choosing numbers for each input, basing a projection on those numbers, and then determining the corresponding distribution of the significant characteristics of the future population.
The relative merits and disadvantages of this approach to population projections are considered. The author's program, written in BASIC for the IBM PC, is available upon request.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10135 Land, Kenneth C. Methods for national population forecasts: a critical review. Texas Population Research Center Papers, Series 7: 1985, No. 7.001, 1985. 44, [9] pp. University of Texas, Texas Population Research Center: Austin, Texas. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to critically survey three widely used classes of...methods [for forecasting national populations]--demographic accounting/cohort component projection methods, statistical time series methods, and structural modeling methods. In each case, [the author seeks] to identify the major characteristics, strengths, and weaknesses of the methods."
The organizing principle of the survey "is an identification of the typical forecast time horizons associated with each forecasting method. This leads, in turn, to an articulation of factors that place intrinsic limits on the accuracy of population forecasts. The paper concludes with recommendations for additional research in each class of methods and in population forecasting generally."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10136 Nelissen, J.; Vossen, A. A short-term population projection model. [Een bevolkingsprognosemodel voor de korte termijn.] NPDO-Onderzoeksrapport, No. 16, Oct 1983. 188 pp. Nationaal Programma Demografisch Onderzoek [NPDO]: Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This study presents a model for forecasting short-term population trends in the Netherlands. The arguments for selecting an open, interdisciplinary approach, in which the dynamics of the population system are represented cross-sectionally, are outlined. Relationships among the selected demographic variables are defined using the GINI-model. Separate consideration is given to fertility, marriage patterns, and international migration.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10137 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek. Hoofdafdeling Bevolkingsstatistieken (Voorburg, Netherlands). Population forecast for the Netherlands, 1984-2035. [Bevolkingsprognose voor Nederland 1984-2035.] 1985. 69 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Population forecasts for the Netherlands are presented up to the year 2035. It is noted that the total population will begin to decline shortly after the turn of the century. The methodology and assumptions used in the preparation of the forecasts are described. Consideration is given to changes in age distribution, births, deaths, international migration, and marriages and divorces.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10138 Rideng, Arne; Sorensen, Knut O.; Sorlie, Kjetil. A model for regional population forecasting. [Modell for regionale befolkningsframskrivinger.] Rapporter fra Statistisk Sentralbyra, No. 85/7, ISBN 82-537- 2162-5. 1985. 71 pp. Statistisk Sentralbyra: Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
A detailed description of the model used for making population forecasts in Norway is presented. The focus is on regional forecasts and the administrative divisions used for such forecasts and on changes to be made in these administrative boundaries for future forecasts.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10139 Smith, Stanley K. Accounting for migration in cohort-component projections of state and local populations. Demography, Vol. 23, No. 1, Feb 1986. 127-35 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This article is concerned with the problems involved in forecasting migration trends for purposes of making population projections, with particular reference to projections for the United States at the state and local level. The author develops "three different models for projecting migration, each using a different denominator for migration rates. Population projections for ten states are made, using identical data and cohort component techniques, except for the different formulations of migration rates. Differences among the three sets of projections are noted, and conclusions are drawn regarding their usefulness as forecasts of population growth."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10140 Vu, My T. World population projections 1984. Short- and long-term estimates by age and sex with related demographic statistics. ISBN 0-8213-0431-3. LC 84-20932. 1984. xxix, 449 pp. World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
"This report gives detailed population projections by age and sex for each country at 5-year intervals from 1980 to 2025 and at 25-year intervals for a 175-year period." The implied rates of fertility, mortality, and migration used in preparing the projections are included. Projections are also presented by region and by countries grouped by income. The data are from a variety of official sources, including the United Nations, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, and the World Bank.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10141 Vu, My T. World population projections 1985. Short- and long-term estimates by age and sex with related demographic statistics. ISBN 0-8018-3322-1. LC 85-23083. 1985. xxvi, 451 pp. Johns Hopkins University Press: Baltimore, Maryland/London, England; World Bank: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is an updated version of the population projections for 1984 published by the World Bank and used to provide background data for the Bank's policy work on population and development. The projections are presented by age and sex for each country of the world from 1980 to 2025 at 5-year intervals, and at 25-year intervals from 2130 to 2155, together with selected demographic indicators. The projections are also presented by region and by countries grouped by income. The methods and assumptions on which the projections are based are explained. The data are from a variety of sources, including the United Nations, the U.S. Bureau of the Census, the European Community, and the World Bank.
For the 1984 projections, see elsewhere in this issue.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

52:10142 Craig, John. Ward population trends 1971 to 1981. Population Trends, No. 42, Winter 1985. 30-5 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Wards are relatively small areas for which inter-censal population changes are readily available; they give a detailed, country-wide insight into patterns and trends. This article shows that although the total population of England and Wales changed only slightly from 1971 to 1981 there were appreciable shifts at the ward level and analysing these adds considerably to local authority analyses."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10143 Japan. Institute of Population Problems (Tokyo, Japan). Population reproduction rates for all Japan: 1983. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, No. 173, Jan 1985. 74-81 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Changes in population reproduction rates in Japan from 1925 to 1983 are analyzed using official data. The results indicate that the fertility rate is currently increasing slightly, while the death rate continues to decline.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

52:10144 Teitelbaum, Michael S.; Winter, Jay M. The fear of population decline. ISBN 0-12-685190-5. LC 85-3930. 1985. xii, 201 pp. Academic Press: Orlando, Florida/London, England. In Eng.
This book provides a survey of the subject of population decline in the context of the demographic history of the United States and Europe including the USSR since the mid-1800s. Following an overview of common misunderstandings concerning population decline, the authors "proceed in Chapters 2 and 3 to demonstrate the complex ways in which fears of population decline emerged in the period 1870-1940. In Chapter 4, [they] describe developments in the period 1945-1965, when these fears temporarily receded."
Two subsequent chapters deal with aspects of the observed fertility decline since 1965 and various policy responses. In the concluding section, the authors "summarize the long debate over the nature and possible dangers of population decline, and then turn to the question of likely demographic trends, and what to do about them, in the foreseeable future." Fertility data and the texts of selected official policy statements on the subject are included in appendixes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1986-1996, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.