Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
66:10004 Beaumel, Catherine; Eneua, Denise;
Kerjosse, Roselyne. The demographic situation in 1997:
population changes. [La situation démographique en 1997:
mouvement de la population.] INSEE Résultats:
Démographie-Société, No. 75-76, ISBN
2-11-067410-5. Dec 1999. 274 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et
des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one
in a series of reports in which demographic trends in France are
reviewed. It consists mainly of statistical data organized into
sections on population, marriages, divorces, legitimizations of
children born outside of marriage, births, induced abortions, deaths,
monthly data, migration, departmental and regional data, and
international data. The French vital statistics system is described in
an appendix, and some methods and definitions used in producing these
data are described.
For a previous report concerning 1996, see
65:30056.
Correspondence: Institut National de la
Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard,
75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
66:10005 Howe, Andrew. Assessing
the accuracy of Australia's small-area population estimates.
Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 16, No. 1-2,
May-Nov 1999. 47-63 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The
Australian Bureau of Statistics provides population estimates of
Statistical Local Areas annually. The accuracy of these estimates can
be assessed after population estimates are rebased after each
quinquennial Census of Population and Housing, however there appears to
be no straightforward method of assessing these estimates. Errors that
occur with population estimates can be attributed to several factors,
both broad and specific to individual areas. These factors include
inherent characteristics of the region, such as population size and
growth rate; changes in the geographic boundaries; quality of input
data; estimation method; and adjustments to controls totals (state
populations)."
Correspondence: A. Howe, Australian
Bureau of Statistics, Small Area Population Unit, G.P.O. Box 2272,
Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia. E-mail: andrew.howe@abs.gov.au.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
66:10006 Findlay, Allan M.; Maani,
Mohammed. Development implications of demographic trends
and projections for an arid region: the case of the Badia Research and
Development Project area of Jordan. Applied Geography, Vol. 19,
No. 4, Oct 1999. 283-98 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
Some problems
faced by development planners in arid areas are examined. "This
paper presents population projections for the arid area of eastern
Jordan covered by the Badia Research and Development Project and
evaluates the economic and social implications of these projections
over the next 20 years. The paper argues that conventional demographic
forecasting methods are extremely problematic when applied to a
population such as this. Furthermore, the pastoral economy, which has
in the past been the main source of livelihood, cannot hope to sustain
the region's future population. High fertility rates will continue to
place great stress on the educational and health
infrastructure."
Correspondence: A. M. Findlay,
University of Dundee, Centre for Applied Population Research, Dundee
DD1 4HN, Scotland. E-mail: a.m.findlay@dundee.ac.uk. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
66:10007 Takahashi, Shigesato; Kaneko,
Ryuichi; Ishikawa, Akira; Ikenoue, Masako; Mita, Fusami.
Population projections for Japan: methods, assumptions and
results. Review of Population and Social Policy, No. 8, 1999.
75-115 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"The National Institute of
Population and Social Security Research officially announced a new
round of population projections for Japan in January 1997. This article
outlines the projection results and describes the methods used to
obtain them. The projections, made following the release of 1995 census
data, provide three variants based on three different scenarios
of...medium, high, and low fertility variant projections. According to
the medium projection, the population of Japan will increase from 125.6
million in 1995 to a peak of 127.8 million in 2007, followed by a
constant decrease to 100.5 million in 2050. The proportion aged 65 and
over will expand from 14.6% in 1995 to 32.3% in 2050.... This article
explains how the fertility and mortality prospects were provided for
the projections as well as the results of analyses on which the
prospects were based."
Correspondence: S. Takahashi,
National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 1-2-3
Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013, Japan. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
66:10008 Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A.;
Barr, Charles F. In search of the ideal measure of
accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts. Population
Research and Policy Review, Vol. 18, No. 5, Oct 1999. 387-409 pp.
Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"We examine nonlinear
transformations of the forecast error distribution in hopes of finding
a summary error measure that is not prone to an upward bias and uses
most of the information about that error. MAPE, the current standard
for measuring error, often overstates the error represented by most of
the values because the distribution underlying the MAPE is right skewed
and truncated at zero. Using a modification to the Box-Cox family of
nonlinear transformations, we transform these skewed forecast error
distributions into symmetrical distributions for a wide range of size
and growth rate conditions. We verify this symmetry using graphical
devices and statistical tests; examine the transformed errors to
determine if re-expression to the scale of the untransformed errors is
necessary; and develop and implement a procedure for the re-expression.
The MAPE-R developed by our process is lower than the MAPE based on the
untransformed errors and is more consistent with a robust estimator of
location." The geographical focus is on the United
States.
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of
Governments, 401B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101. E-mail:
jta@sandag.cog.ca.us. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
No citations in this issue.
