Volume 66 - Number 1 - Spring 2000

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

No citations in this issue.

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

66:10004 Beaumel, Catherine; Eneua, Denise; Kerjosse, Roselyne. The demographic situation in 1997: population changes. [La situation démographique en 1997: mouvement de la population.] INSEE Résultats: Démographie-Société, No. 75-76, ISBN 2-11-067410-5. Dec 1999. 274 pp. Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques [INSEE]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is one in a series of reports in which demographic trends in France are reviewed. It consists mainly of statistical data organized into sections on population, marriages, divorces, legitimizations of children born outside of marriage, births, induced abortions, deaths, monthly data, migration, departmental and regional data, and international data. The French vital statistics system is described in an appendix, and some methods and definitions used in producing these data are described.
For a previous report concerning 1996, see 65:30056.
Correspondence: Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

66:10005 Howe, Andrew. Assessing the accuracy of Australia's small-area population estimates. Journal of the Australian Population Association, Vol. 16, No. 1-2, May-Nov 1999. 47-63 pp. Canberra, Australia. In Eng.
"The Australian Bureau of Statistics provides population estimates of Statistical Local Areas annually. The accuracy of these estimates can be assessed after population estimates are rebased after each quinquennial Census of Population and Housing, however there appears to be no straightforward method of assessing these estimates. Errors that occur with population estimates can be attributed to several factors, both broad and specific to individual areas. These factors include inherent characteristics of the region, such as population size and growth rate; changes in the geographic boundaries; quality of input data; estimation method; and adjustments to controls totals (state populations)."
Correspondence: A. Howe, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Small Area Population Unit, G.P.O. Box 2272, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia. E-mail: andrew.howe@abs.gov.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

66:10006 Findlay, Allan M.; Maani, Mohammed. Development implications of demographic trends and projections for an arid region: the case of the Badia Research and Development Project area of Jordan. Applied Geography, Vol. 19, No. 4, Oct 1999. 283-98 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
Some problems faced by development planners in arid areas are examined. "This paper presents population projections for the arid area of eastern Jordan covered by the Badia Research and Development Project and evaluates the economic and social implications of these projections over the next 20 years. The paper argues that conventional demographic forecasting methods are extremely problematic when applied to a population such as this. Furthermore, the pastoral economy, which has in the past been the main source of livelihood, cannot hope to sustain the region's future population. High fertility rates will continue to place great stress on the educational and health infrastructure."
Correspondence: A. M. Findlay, University of Dundee, Centre for Applied Population Research, Dundee DD1 4HN, Scotland. E-mail: a.m.findlay@dundee.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

66:10007 Takahashi, Shigesato; Kaneko, Ryuichi; Ishikawa, Akira; Ikenoue, Masako; Mita, Fusami. Population projections for Japan: methods, assumptions and results. Review of Population and Social Policy, No. 8, 1999. 75-115 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Eng.
"The National Institute of Population and Social Security Research officially announced a new round of population projections for Japan in January 1997. This article outlines the projection results and describes the methods used to obtain them. The projections, made following the release of 1995 census data, provide three variants based on three different scenarios of...medium, high, and low fertility variant projections. According to the medium projection, the population of Japan will increase from 125.6 million in 1995 to a peak of 127.8 million in 2007, followed by a constant decrease to 100.5 million in 2050. The proportion aged 65 and over will expand from 14.6% in 1995 to 32.3% in 2050.... This article explains how the fertility and mortality prospects were provided for the projections as well as the results of analyses on which the prospects were based."
Correspondence: S. Takahashi, National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 1-2-3 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-0013, Japan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

66:10008 Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A.; Barr, Charles F. In search of the ideal measure of accuracy for subnational demographic forecasts. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 18, No. 5, Oct 1999. 387-409 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"We examine nonlinear transformations of the forecast error distribution in hopes of finding a summary error measure that is not prone to an upward bias and uses most of the information about that error. MAPE, the current standard for measuring error, often overstates the error represented by most of the values because the distribution underlying the MAPE is right skewed and truncated at zero. Using a modification to the Box-Cox family of nonlinear transformations, we transform these skewed forecast error distributions into symmetrical distributions for a wide range of size and growth rate conditions. We verify this symmetry using graphical devices and statistical tests; examine the transformed errors to determine if re-expression to the scale of the untransformed errors is necessary; and develop and implement a procedure for the re-expression. The MAPE-R developed by our process is lower than the MAPE based on the untransformed errors and is more consistent with a robust estimator of location." The geographical focus is on the United States.
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101. E-mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

No citations in this issue.


Copyright © 2000, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.