Volume 65 - Number 4 - Winter 1999

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

65:41566 Alter, George; Gutmann, Myron P. Casting spells: database concepts for event-history analysis. Historical Methods, Vol. 32, No. 4, Fall 1999. 165-76 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
Some aspects of event history analysis as a method of demographic research are explored. "After several years of using these methods ourselves, we have concluded that the event-history approach requires that data be organized and conceptualized differently from the way in which data are organized and conceptualized in many other demographic or social scientific applications. This article deals with some issues at work in understanding event-history data and ways of understanding how to use them in the statistical analysis of event histories. This approach calls for a thorough knowledge of the data needed for event-history analysis and methods for transforming those data to make the analysis possible."
Correspondence: G. Alter, Indiana University, Population Institute for Research and Training, Memorial Hall East 220, Bloomington, IN 47405. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41567 Andreozzi, Luciano. Analogies and mechanical models at the dawn of mathematical demography. The case of the logistical curve. [Analogie e modelli meccanici all'alba della demografia matematica. Il caso della "logistica"] Bollettino di Demografia Storica, No. 29, 1998. 5-22 pp. Bologna, Italy. In Ita.
The author examines the history of the use of the logistical curve in demography. It was originally born out of the idea of studying population growth using a mechanical analogy, namely the motion of a body falling in a viscous medium. The author argues that all attempts to model population growth on the basis of mechanical analogies have failed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41568 Birg, H.; Filip, D.; Flöthmann, E.-J.; Frein, T. The internal dynamics of population growth in the 16 states of Germany in the twenty-first century: a multi-regional population model with endogenous migration. [Zur Eigendynamik der Bevölkerungsentwicklung der 16 Bundesländer Deutschlands im 21. Jahrhundert: ein multiregionales Bevölkerungsmodell mit endogenen Wanderungen.] IBS-Materialien, Vol. 41, ISBN 3-923340-36-2. 1997. x, 208 pp. Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik [IBS]: Bielefeld, Germany. In Ger.
A model for calculating population trends is developed that includes migration as an endogenous variable. The model is applied to official German data from 1991.
Correspondence: Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41569 Courgeau, Daniel. Methods for the analysis of event history data. [Métodos para el análisis de datos biográficos.] Estudios Demográficos y Urbanos, Vol. 14, No. 3, Sep-Dec 1999. 599-629, 782 pp. Mexico City, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This article suggests three approaches for analyzing biographical data. The non-parametric approach deals with the interaction between various demographic phenomena and leads to various types of dependence between them. The parametric approach attempts to incorporate the heterogeneity observed in the population into the analysis, by linking temporary behavior with various characteristics that are either dependent on or independent from time. The semi-parametric approach permits the simultaneous exploration of interactions and heterogeneity. The issue of non-observed heterogeneity in data is also explored. These methods are illustrated using examples of the application of data taken from surveys."
Correspondence: D. Courgeau, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41570 Das Gupta, Prithwis. Decomposing the difference between rates when the rate is a function of factors that are not cross-classified. Genus, Vol. 55, No. 1-2, Jan-Jun 1999. 9-26 pp. Rome, Italy. In Eng. with sum. in Ita; Fre.
"In an earlier paper in this journal (1994), the author discussed in detail the problem of decomposition of the difference between two overall rates into the effects of the underlying factors, and these factors appeared in the data in the form of a cross-classification. The present paper deals with the problem of decomposition when the rate is a function of several factors, but the data are not cross-classified. The techniques are illustrated by numerical examples, and a general program is provided for data up to ten factors."
For the 1994 publication referred to, see 61:20792.
Correspondence: P. Das Gupta, U.S. Bureau of the Census, Population Division, Washington, D.C. 20233. E-mail: prithwis.dasgupta@ccmail.census.gov. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41571 Diamond, Ian; Clements, Steve; Stone, Nicole; Ingham, Roger. Spatial variation in teenage conceptions in south and west England. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series A: Statistics in Society, Vol. 162, No. Pt. 3, 1999. 273-89 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Multilevel Poisson models are used to identify factors influencing variation in census ward level teenage conception rates. Multilevel logistic models are also employed to examine the outcome of these conceptions. Demographic and socioeconomic characteristics are accounted for as well as access to family planning services. The paper emphasizes the importance of customized deprivation indices that are specific to the health outcome in urban and rural areas." Comments on this and other papers in this issue by Fiona Steele are included (pp. 329-30).
Correspondence: I. Diamond, University of Southampton, Department of Social Statistics, Southampton SO9 5NH, England. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:41572 Dykstra, Pearl A.; van Wissen, Leo J. G. Introduction: the life course approach as an interdisciplinary framework for population studies. In: Population issues: an interdisciplinary focus, edited by Leo J. G. van Wissen and Pearl A. Dykstra. 1999. 1-22 pp. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New York, New York/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
The authors discuss the use of the life course approach for the study of population, and provide a general explanation of the approach. They also present an overview of the chapters in this volume.
Correspondence: P. A. Dykstra, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41573 France. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED] (Paris, France). Event history analysis. The result of 14 event history collections. [Biographies d'enquêtes. Bilan de 14 collectes biographiques.] Méthodes et Savoirs, No. 3, ISBN 2-7332-6003-0. 1999. xvi, 340 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This work contains 14 examples of research using event history analysis, and is a product of an international seminar held in Paris in June 1997. The studies were carried out between 1974 and 1997 in France, Romania, Poland, Italy, Mali, Cameroon, Senegal, Colombia, Mexico, and India. The objective of the seminar was to reorganize the data from these projects in a way that would facilitate comparative analysis among them. The theoretical basis underpinning them and the methodological choices that were made are described and compared in order to develop some common guidelines that will be useful in future research using event history analysis.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41574 Graham, Elspeth. Breaking out: the opportunities and challenges of multi-method research in population geography. Professional Geographer, Vol. 51, No. 1, Feb 1999. 76-89 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
The author makes the argument that population geographers should break out from the confines of an empirical research tradition and examine some broader philosophical and theoretical issues. In particular, she explores the possibility of examining how and for what purpose various research methods might be combined.
Correspondence: E. Graham, University of St. Andrews, School of Geography and Geosciences, St. Andrews, Fife KY19 9ST, Scotland. E-mail: gg@st-and.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41575 Hill, Mark E. Multivariate survivorship analysis using two cross-sectional samples. Demography, Vol. 36, No. 4, Nov 1999. 497-503 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"As an alternative to survival analysis with longitudinal data, I introduce a method that can be applied when one observes the same cohort in two cross-sectional samples collected at different points in time. The method allows for the estimation of log-probability survivorship models that estimate the influence of multiple time-invariant factors on survival over a time interval separating two samples. This approach can be used whenever the survival process can be adequately conceptualized as an irreversible single-decrement process (e.g., mortality, the transition to first marriage among a cohort of never-married individuals). Using data from the Integrated Public Use Microdata Series...I illustrate the multivariate method through an investigation of the effects of race, parity, and educational attainment on the survival of older women in the United States."
Correspondence: M. E. Hill, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. E-mail: mhill@pop.upenn.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41576 Hooimeijer, Pieter; Oskamp, Anton. Advances in the microsimulation of demographic behavior. In: Population issues: an interdisciplinary focus, edited by Leo J. G. van Wissen and Pearl A. Dykstra. 1999. 229-63 pp. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New York, New York/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In this contribution we will report the progress that has been made in the microsimulations carried out in the context of the Priority Program [in the Netherlands]. First, the shared conceptual framework in the Priority Program, namely the life course approach, will be elaborated in order to develop a number of criteria for the functional design of simulation models of demographic behavior. Next, some general methodological issues that have been resolved in the Priority Program will be discussed. Third, the substantive properties of three microsimulation models will be described in more detail."
Correspondence: P. Hooimeijer, University of Utrecht, Urban Research Centre Utrecht, P.O. Box 80115, 3508 TC Utrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41577 Hoppensteadt, Frank. Mathematical theories of populations: demographics, genetics and epidemics. CBMS-NSF Regional Conference Series in Applied Mathematics, Vol. 20, ISBN 0-89871-017-0. LC 97-19735. 1993. vii, 72 pp. Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics: Philadelphia, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"Many techniques for analyzing complicated physical problems can be applied to population problems.... Several population problems will be analyzed here which illustrate these methods and techniques. The monograph begins with a study of population age structure. A basic model is derived first, and it reappears frequently throughout the remainder. Various extensions and modifications of the basic model are then applied to several population phenomena, such as stable age distributions, self-limiting effects and two-sex populations. The second part is devoted to population genetics, and it contains a summary of some of the most successful applications of mathematics in the biological sciences.... The final part...is concerned with the dynamics of contagious phenomena in a population.... The emphasis...is placed on studies of qualitative properties of several typical models." This work was originally published in 1975.
Correspondence: Society for Industrial and Applied Mathematics, 3600 University City Science Center, Philadelphia, PA 19104-2688. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41578 Lillard, Lee A.; Panis, Constantijn W. A. Panel attrition from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics: household income, marital status, and mortality. Journal of Human Resources, Vol. 33, No. 2, Spring 1998. 437-57 pp. Madison, Wisconsin. In Eng.
"This analysis is concerned with the determinants of panel attrition from the [U.S.] Panel Study of Income Dynamics and with its consequences for estimation of dynamic behavioral models which exploit the panel or longitudinal information--household income dynamics, marriage formation and dissolution, and adult mortality risk. We develop and estimate joint models of attrition and one or more of these substantive processes, and allow for correlation across the equations through random effects. Although we find evidence of significant selectivity in attrition behavior, the biases that are introduced by ignoring selective attrition are very mild."
Correspondence: L. A. Lillard, RAND Corporation, 1700 Main Street, Santa Monica, CA 90401. E-mail: Lee_Lillard@rand.org. Location: Princeton University Library (IR).

65:41579 McKendrick, John H. Multi-method research: an introduction to its application in population geography. Professional Geographer, Vol. 51, No. 1, Feb 1999. 40-9 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This paper sets the context for four papers on multi-method research in population geography. It begins by outlining the various ends to which multi-method research may be employed. The focus then shifts to the broader plane of method, epistemology, and research design. It is argued that epistemological position only determines how methods can be used: it does not preclude the use of particular methods. The possibilities for multi-method research are therefore considerable. Finally, some issues pertaining to multi-method research that have not yet been resolved are raised for future debate."
Correspondence: J. H. McKendrick, Glasgow Caledonian University, School of Social Sciences, Glasgow G4 0BA, Lanark, Scotland. E-mail: j.mckendrick@gcal.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41580 Navaneetham, K.; Saxena, Prem C. Multivariate graphical methods for characterizing development: an application of Chernoff-type faces. Demography India, Vol. 28, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1999. 111-22 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper highlights the use of graphical methods in statistical data analysis, which may [be found] useful to overcome some of the limitations in the formal statistical procedures. In particular, an attempt has been made in this paper to illustrate the potential use of Chernoff-type faces for characterizing the development of regions. This paper also examines the way in which `face' method would be effective for communicating information of the data and therefore helpful to derive additional information which otherwise would have been missed from the analytical methods."
Correspondence: K. Navaneetham, Centre for Development Studies, Thiruvananthapuram, Kerala, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41581 Norman, Paul. Putting iterative proportional fitting on the researcher's desk. School of Geography Working Paper, No. 99/03, Nov 1999. iv, 32 pp. University of Leeds, School of Geography: Leeds, England. In Eng.
"`Iterative Proportional Fitting' (IPF) is a mathematical procedure originally developed to combine the information from two or more data sets. IPF is a well-established technique with the theoretical and practical considerations behind the method thoroughly explored and reported. In this paper the theory of IPF is investigated with a mathematical definition of the procedure and a review of the relevant literature given. So that IPF can be readily accessible to researchers the procedure has been automated in Visual Basic and a description of the program and a `User Guide' are provided. IPF is employed in various disciplines but has been particularly useful in census related analysis to provide updated population statistics and to estimate individual-level attribute characteristics."
Correspondence: University of Leeds, School of Geography, Leeds LS2 9JT, England. Author's E-mail: p.norman@geography.leeds.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41582 Poulain, Michel; Eggerickx, Thierry. The "quartier" as the unit of analysis for the study of the relationship between demography and local development. [Le quartier comme cadre d'analyse des interactions entre démographie et aménagement du territoire.] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 107-17 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Based on experience with local demographic studies carried out in Belgium, the authors describe the use of the "quartier", a subdivision of the commune, as the geographical unit best suited to the study of the relationship between demography and local development. The criteria for defining these quartiers are spelled out, and their value for efficient administration at the local level is noted.
Correspondence: M. Poulain, Université Catholique de Louvain, Centre d'Etude de Gestion Démographique pour les Administrations Publiques, Place de l'Université 1, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41583 Rohrbasser, Jean-Marc; Véron, Jacques. The Huygens brothers and forecasting the age at death: the argument about the "fair bet" concept. [Les frères Huygens et le "calcul des aages": l'argument du pari équitable.] Population, Vol. 54, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1999. 993-1,011 pp. Paris, France. In Fre. with sum. in Eng; Spa.
Some aspects of the seventeenth-century correspondence between the Huygens brothers concerning ways to estimate life expectancy are examined. The focus is on the distinction between the mean and probable length of life remaining to an individual.
Correspondence: J.-M. Rohrbasser, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: rohrbass@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41584 Shanmugam, Ramalingam. Statistical modeling of fertility: review. In: Studies in applied demography: proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Applied Demography, 1994, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao. 1996. 65-75 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"The purpose of this review article is to critically narrate the developments that have occurred thus far in the literature on statistical modeling of fertility, discuss some deficiencies in such developments, and offer new directions for future research work."
Correspondence: R. Shanmugam, University of Colorado, Department of Mathematics, P.O. Box 173364, Denver, CO 80217-3364. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41585 van Wissen, Leo J. G.; Dykstra, Pearl A. Epilogue: new directions in population studies. In: Population issues: an interdisciplinary focus, edited by Leo J. G. van Wissen and Pearl A. Dykstra. 1999. 265-75 pp. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New York, New York/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"Most Western countries today face similar population issues.... The distinguishing quality of the contributions in this book is that they approach these population issues from an interdisciplinary life course perspective. This perspective has proven to be extremely useful. This chapter highlights and evaluates some of the most salient findings, and at the same time elaborates on some of the deficiencies in our current knowledge."
Correspondence: L. J. G. van Wissen, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:41586 Willekens, Frans J. The life course: models and analysis. In: Population issues: an interdisciplinary focus, edited by Leo J. G. van Wissen and Pearl A. Dykstra. 1999. 23-51 pp. Kluwer Academic/Plenum Publishers: New York, New York/Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The life course perspective has proven to be extremely useful in studies of social and demographic change.... The paper aims at contributing to an integration of life course theorizing and methods of analysis. The approach is to reduce life course theories and methods to a few basic and universal elements and to investigate the use of these elements in studies of life histories. Basic elements are life event, time, risk and uncertainty, exposure, and interaction."
Correspondence: F. J. Willekens, University of Groningen, Population Research Centre, P.O. Box 800, 9700 AV Groningen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).


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