F. Fertility

Studies that treat quantitative fertility data analytically. References to crude data are coded under S. Official Statistical Publications. Methodological studies specifically concerned with fertility are cited in this division and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models, if necessary.

F.1. General Fertility

Analytical studies of quantitative birth data and reproduction rates and studies of fertility and its concomitants. Studies of age at marriage, divorce, and factors influencing family size are coded under G.1. Marriage and Divorce or G.2. Family and Household.

65:40409 Abbink, Jon G. Violence, ritual, and reproduction: culture and context in Surma dueling. Ethnology, Vol. 38, No. 3, Summer 1999. 227-42 pp. Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania. In Eng.
"Through a study of the ceremonial stick-dueling of the Surma people of southern Ethiopia, this article explores the sociocultural context of ritual violence in a small-scale agropastoralist society and its relation to social reproductive concerns." The author notes that "contrary to sociobiological predictions, combat success is neither valued for its own sake nor shows itself to be reproductively advantageous in a statistical sense."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40410 Abernethy, Virginia D. A Darwinian account of the fertility opportunity hypothesis. Population and Environment, Vol. 21, No. 2, Nov 1999. 119-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"Reproduction is a sine qua non for the continuance of any gene pool. Therefore, it would be strange if natural selection failed to act on reproductive patterns, even among humans where the most characteristic adaptations are cognitive and culturally-mediated. In fact, the regularity of human fertility rate responses to variation in the opportunity structure has been documented in many contexts. Humans appear to be alert to environmental signs that indicate whether conditions for childbearing and nurture are more or less optimal, given the possibilities. Specifically, a perception that economic opportunity is expanding, so that relatively many children could probably be successfully raised to maturity, is associated with early marriage and larger family size."
Correspondence: V. D. Abernethy, Vanderbilt University, School of Medicine, 209 Oxford House, Nashville, TN 37232-4245. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40411 Aghajanian, Akbar; Mehryar, Amir H. Fertility transition in the Islamic Republic of Iran: 1976-1996. Asia-Pacific Population Journal, Vol. 14, No. 1, Mar 1999. 21-42 pp. Bangkok, Thailand. In Eng.
"This article analyses data related to the Iranian fertility transition that took place during the period 1976-1996. The study found that the demographic factors behind the decreasing crude birth rates are lower exposure to marriage through an unprecedented increase in the female age at marriage and decreases in marital fertility. The fertility decline is explained by demand and ideational factors including a broad reduction in infant mortality and persistent economic pressure. The increase in the educational level of women of reproductive age has also played a role. The most important ideational factor is the changing social atmosphere about having smaller families and using contraception."
Correspondence: A. Aghajanian, Fayetteville State University, Department of Sociology, 1200 Murchison Road, Fayetteville, NC 28301. E-mail: aghajani@chil.uncfsu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40412 Al-Mashrafi, Hamad R. H. Determinants of fertility and contraceptive use in the Republic of Yemen. In: CDC 27th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 1998. 172-92 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The objectives of this study are "to identify levels and patterns of fertility in the Republic of Yemen; to analyze some relevant differentials of cumulative fertility; to analyze factors associated with fertility and contraceptive prevalence." Data are from the Demographic Maternal and Child Health Survey conducted in Yemen in 1991-1992.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40413 Andersson, Gunnar. Childbearing trends in Sweden 1961-1997. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 15, No. 1, Mar 1999. 1-24 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The purpose of this paper is to update a system of annual indices of birth rates and to display trends in childbearing for Swedish women over the years since 1961.... Swedish fertility has shown strong fluctuations during our study period and these fluctuations have been particularly dramatic during recent years. A postponement of the age at first birth and a sudden shift to shorter birth intervals are important components in the fertility trends. A peak in the level of childbearing at the beginning of the present decade has now been followed by a sharp drop in the propensity to give birth. This change in behaviour pertains to women of all parities."
Correspondence: G. Andersson, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: gua@hem2.passagen.se. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40414 Andersson, Gunnar. Trends in childbearing and nuptiality in Sweden 1961(71)-1997. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 133, ISBN 91-7820-137-3. Mar 1999. 32 pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"The purpose of this paper is to give an overview of a system for presenting trends in family dynamics in contemporary Sweden. We use annual indexes of birth rates in order to display trends in childbearing for Swedish women over the years since 1961. We use similar annual indexes of marriage risks and divorce risks to display nuptiality trends in Sweden since 1971. We decompose the overall trends in fertility and nuptiality and present separate period indexes for women with different numbers of children. All our indexes are produced by applying indirect standardization to register data which covers practically all of the Swedish female population. Our indexes give accurate information about changes in the propensity to give birth, to marry, and to divorce from one year to another."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Author's E-mail: gua@hem2.passagen.se. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40415 Andersson, Gunnar. Trends in childbearing and nuptiality in Sweden: a period analysis. Stockholm University Demography Unit, Dissertation Series, No. 2, ISBN 91-7153-976-X. Aug 1999. [198] pp. Stockholm University: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
This dissertation contains a selection of papers, several of which have been previously published and cited in Population Index, on aspects of childbearing and family dynamics in Sweden. The studies are all based on data from the Swedish population registers. "The thesis consists of seven separate papers. The first paper gives an overview of our system of period indexes. The next four papers give a more detailed presentation of various aspects of the family dynamics in Sweden. Paper number two displays trends in divorce risks over the years since 1971. A third paper presents a further examination of the effect of children on these divorce risks. Separate effects of the number of children, of premarital childbearing, and of the age of the youngest child are examined and disentangled. A fourth paper displays trends in risks of marriage formation and re-formation during the same period, and a fifth paper displays trends in childbearing over the years since 1961. A sixth paper...provides a deeper examination of patterns of childbearing and of reasons behind the recent strong fluctuations in Swedish fertility.... In a final paper/note, we examine childbearing at higher birth orders."
Correspondence: Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40416 Andreev, E. M.; Barkalov, N. B. Birth tables on sequence of births. [Tablitsy rozhdaemosti po ocherednosti rozhdenii.] Voprosy Statistiki, No. 5, 1999. 64-6 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Selected data on recent fertility trends in Russia are presented. Most of the data are for the years 1988-1989.
Correspondence: E. M. Andreev, Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40417 Balasubramanian, K. Pace of fertility decline and prospects for population stabilisation in Andhra Pradesh. Demography India, Vol. 28, No. 1, Jan-Jun 1999. 23-46 pp. Delhi, India. In Eng.
"The State of Andhra Pradesh [in India] has attracted the attention of demographers and development planners in recent years for two main reasons. First, the pace of fertility transition in the State has been fairly rapid.... Although the mechanisms of fertility decline have not been fully investigated, the fact remains that a significant fertility decline has occurred in the State despite slow progress in socio-economic development.... Second, the Government of Andhra Pradesh takes the pride of having been the first State Government to formulate a State Population Policy.... Using available information from the Census, Sample Registration System (SRS) and demographic sample surveys, this paper examines the pace of fertility transition in Andhra Pradesh since Independence. The prospects of achieving a sustained fertility decline in the State are assessed in light of demographic changes that have take place in recent years."
Correspondence: K. Balasubramanian, Indian Institute of Health and Family Welfare, Hyderabad, Andhra Pradesh, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40418 Basu, Alaka M. Fertility decline and increasing gender imbalance in India, including a possible South Indian turnaround. Development and Change, Vol. 30, No. 2, Apr 1999. 237-63 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This article examines the evidence for a causal connection between fertility decline and increasing gender imbalance by looking at differences in fertility and in gender inequalities between North and South India in the past, and their increasing convergence in gender inequalities in recent years. It pays special attention to the southern state of Tamil Nadu which has been in the forefront of the country's fertility decline but is nevertheless moving towards a North Indian pattern in many aspects of women's status.... The main problem seems to be that pressures to lower fertility are occurring independently of a change in underlying son preferences and falls in fertility are being aided by technologies which allow one to manipulate not just the sex composition of living children, but also that of children as yet unborn. Some policy implications of this last situation are discussed."
Correspondence: A. M. Basu, Cornell University, Savage Hall, Ithaca, NY 14853. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40419 Beets, Gijs. European variation in education and in the birth of the first child: FFS evidence. [Onderwijs en de geboorte van het eerste kind in Europa: FFS gegevens.] Bevolking en Gezin, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1998. 99-121 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"One of the most important variables that is supposed to influence the timing of first birth is education.... The Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS) data set, becoming available now for many countries of the ECE Region, provides us with recent insights in the link between the two topics, and yields hypotheses for the future trends in European fertility, which is expected to remain low. However, it is still too early for an in-depth analysis; moreover a fundamental methodological problem (how well can educational levels be compared internationally?) that shows up now, may hinder the analysis."
Correspondence: G. Beets, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. E-mail: beets@nidi.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40420 Beets, Gijs C. N.; Liefbroer, Aart C.; Gierveld, Jenny. Changes in fertility values and behaviour: a life course perspective. In: Dynamics of values in fertility change, edited by Richard Leete. 1999. 100-20 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter examines the viability of the life course perspective for the study of fertility attitudes and behaviour, using panel data [over the period 1987-1991] from a Dutch study about the process of social integration of young adults. First, two perspectives on the impact of life-course-related changes in values and attitudes are discussed, and some general hypotheses are derived. Next, the data set and methods used to test the hypotheses are considered, followed by a presentation and discussion of the results." The results suggest that values and attitudes vary over time according to the statuses that young adults occupy during a critical period in their life course. Different attitudes toward parenthood between the sexes are also identified.
Correspondence: G. C. N. Beets, Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute, Postbus 11650, 2502 AR The Hague, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40421 Benefo, Kofi D. Cultural perspectives on West African fertility change. In: Dynamics of values in fertility change, edited by Richard Leete. 1999. 331-42 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The author challenges the hypothesis that the cultural values of many African societies that support patriarchy, polygyny, and belief in traditional religion are not conducive to reproductive change and need to be displaced before fertility decline can occur. The author "challenges the representation of African culture as impenetrable to modernization. [He] argues that it is possible for policy to promote new ideas about fertility in African societies by using dominant African values. The challenge is to promote the ideas in such a way that they are consistent with these values. The argument is based on evidence that when West Africans have adopted Western marriage and reproductive values, they have transformed these ideas to fit into the existing cultural milieu. From this perspective the strategy of policy should be to present family planning ideas in ways that affirm, rather than delegitimate or displace, existing African values. The historical association of fertility declines with values that promote gender equality, individual autonomy, and secularity appears purely accidental."
Correspondence: K. D. Benefo, University of Southern California, University Park, Los Angeles, CA 90089. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40422 Berinde, Diana. Pathways to a third child in Sweden. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 15, No. 4, Dec 1999. 349-78 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"The transition from two to three children is investigated, using data on Swedish women's fertility behaviour and labour force participation over a period of some 20 years ending in 1992/93. Two questions are examined: what is the relationship between working life and childbearing of two-child mothers? Are there differences in fertility between cohabiting and married couples? Several paths to the third child are identified, one of women with a university education and another of women with preference for more children, reflected by marriage after having the first or the second child or by persistent working experience followed by household work."
Correspondence: D. Berinde, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. E-mail: dianaber@hem.passagen.se. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40423 Berry, Brian J. L. Fertility cycles: a note on onset and periodicity. Population and Environment, Vol. 21, No. 2, Nov 1999. 149-54 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The fertility transition was completed in Concord, Mass., by the end of the War of 1812. Thereafter, there has been baby boom-baby bust cyclicality, a rhythm clearly demonstrated by the use of modern methods of digital spectral analysis."
Correspondence: B. J. L. Berry, University of Texas at Dallas, School of Social Sciences, Richardson, TX 75083-0688. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40424 Birg, H.; Flöthmann, E.-J. Trends in family structures and their consequences for intergenerational burdens and transfers. [Entwicklung der Familienstrukturen und ihre Auswirkungen auf die Belastungs- bzw. Transferquotienten zwischen den Generationen.] IBS-Materialien, Vol. 38, ISBN 3-923340-32-X. 1996. 152 pp. Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik [IBS]: Bielefeld, Germany. In Ger.
The perinatal statistics collected for every pregnancy and birth in Germany since 1984 are analyzed in this report. The aim is to shed light on reproductive trends in Germany. Age-specific and parity-specific birth rates are presented and likely future developments are described. Intergenerational transfers, population projections, and demographic aging are also discussed in light of the analysis.
Correspondence: Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40425 Bledsoe, Caroline; Hill, Allan G. Social norms, natural fertility, and the resumption of postpartum "contact" in the Gambia. In: The methods and uses of anthropological demography, edited by Alaka M. Basu and Peter Aaby. 1998. 268-97 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The factors governing postpartum abstinence in the Gambia are analyzed. The focus is on the various norms governing behavior at this time, and how they can be exploited by both partners to meet their individual interests in the areas of sexual relations and healthy birth intervals. The authors note the ways in which the anthropological study of human behavior can help throw more light on demographic events such as the length of birth intervals or the adoption of contraception.
Correspondence: C. Bledsoe, Northwestern University, Department of Anthropology, Evanston, IL 60208-1310. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40426 Bolivia. Instituto Nacional de Estadística [INE] (La Paz, Bolivia); United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA] (New York, New York). The fertility transition in Bolivia and its determinants (1965-1995). [La transición de la fecundidad en Bolivia y sus determinantes (1965-1995).] Dec 1997. 156 pp. La Paz, Bolivia. In Spa.
The main objective of this report is to present sociodemographic information on fertility levels, structures, and trends in Bolivia, together with the characteristics of the female population of childbearing age, using data from the censuses of 1976 and 1992 and the Demographic and Health Surveys of 1989 and 1994. The direct and indirect determinants of fertility are analyzed separately, and consideration is given to both the cultural and socioeconomic factors that are affecting the fertility transition.
Correspondence: Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Plaza Mario Guzmán No. 1, Casilla No. 6129, La Paz, Bolivia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40427 Bongaarts, John. The fertility impact of changes in the timing of childbearing in the developing world. Population Studies, Vol. 53, No. 3, Nov 1999. 277-89 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"This study examines the role of tempo effects in the fertility declines of less developed countries. These effects temporarily inflate the total fertility of a population during periods when the age at childbearing declines and deflate it when childbearing is postponed. An analysis of data from the World Fertility Surveys and the Demographic and Health Surveys demonstrates that fertility trends observed in many less developed countries are likely to be distorted by changes in the timing of childbearing. In most countries women are delaying childbearing, which implies that observed fertility is lower than it would have been without tempo changes. This pattern is most clearly documented in Taiwan, where accurate birth statistics from a vital registration system make it possible to estimate the tempo components of fertility annually from 1978 to 1993."
Correspondence: J. Bongaarts, Population Council, Policy Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40428 Burch, Thomas K. Something ventured, something gained: progress toward a unified theory of fertility decline. Population Studies Centre Discussion Paper, No. 99-1, ISBN 0-7714-2167-2. Feb 1999. 25 pp. University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre: London, Canada. In Eng.
The author provides an overview of the principal theories of fertility decline. "I have focussed on papers published in the last decade, roughly 1987 or later.... I state the main substantive themes and methodological tendencies in point form, with a few illustrations and a brief discussion of each. I return to what seem to me the most important issues in a concluding section, and suggest where the quest for a unified theory of fertility decline may be leading us."
Correspondence: University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6A 5C2, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40429 Caldwell, John. Paths to lower fertility. British Medical Journal, Vol. 319, No. 7215, Oct 9, 1999. 985-7 pp. London, England. In Eng.
This general review of the fertility decline that has occurred in recent years is based primarily on the author's 40 years of research into the fertility transition. "Demographic, economic, social, and administrative changes have all had a role in fertility transition. Fertility decline has never been an unconscious social process; advocacy and organisation have been important. The fertility transition has been a single global event and is an aspect of the creation of a global economy and society. Better contraception had a significant role after 1960 in developing and developed countries. The transition is far from over among large parts of the world's population, especially south Asia and sub-Saharan Africa. Stationary global population in the next century will probably be followed by a fall in population."
Correspondence: J. Caldwell, Australian National University, National Centre for Epidemiology and Population Health, Canberra, ACT 2601, Australia. E-mail: Jack.Caldwell@nceph.anu.edu.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

65:40430 Casterline, John B. The onset and pace of fertility transition: national patterns in the second half of the twentieth century. Population Council Policy Research Division Working Paper, No. 128, 1999. 63 pp. Population Council, Policy Research Division: New York, New York. In Eng.
"The pace of fertility decline over the next three decades will have substantial bearing on the size and structure of the populations of Asia, Africa, and Latin America in the twenty-first century. The experience of the past four decades demonstrates that transitions can vary tremendously in their pace: the declines in East Asia were spectacularly rapid, while leisurely rates of decline typify the transitions of countries scattered throughout other regions. A common assumption is that the pace of national fertility declines is quickening, but in fact recent declines are proceeding more slowly than earlier declines. The paper reviews the factors that affect the pace of decline. Rapid decline is often cited as evidence against theories of fertility decline that stress reductions in the demand for children as a response to changing social and economic circumstances. This argument does not hold up."
Correspondence: Population Council, Policy Research Division, One Dag Hammarskjold Plaza, New York, NY 10017. Author's e-mail: jcasterline@popcouncil.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40431 Das Gupta, Monica. Liberté, egalité, fraternité: exploring the role of governance in fertility decline. Journal of Development Studies, Vol. 35, No. 5, Jun 1999. 1-25 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"A secular decline in fertility has taken place across the globe within a short span of human history. The timing and pace of this decline correspond broadly with changes in socio-political institutions in different regions of the world, of Asia, and of India. We hypothesize that this shift in child-bearing behaviour is related to cognitive changes wrought by the replacement of deeply hierarchical socio-political institutions by the more egalitarian institutions of modern governance." The focus is on India.
Correspondence: M. Das Gupta, World Bank, Development Research Group, 1818 H Street NW, Washington, D.C. 20433. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40432 Di Tommaso, Maria L. A trivariate model of participation, fertility and wages: the Italian case. Cambridge Journal of Economics, Vol. 23, No. 5, Sep 1999. 623-40 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"Italy has unusually low fertility..., accompanied by unusually low female participation in paid work. This paper addresses the issue of the empirical relationship between fertility, female participation in the labour market and wages with these Italian `peculiarities' as a [backdrop]. A trivariate model of participation, fertility and wages has been constructed and estimated using three pooled cross-sections of Italian micro data, allowing for the identification of cohort effects.... The cohort effects turn out to be significant: the point estimates do not appear to confirm actual trends, which are negative for fertility and positive for participation. The female wage is the most important variable influencing the propensity to have children and the propensity to participate in the labour market, casting doubt on suggestions that observed trends are the products of shifts in women's `tastes'."
Correspondence: M. L. Di Tommaso, University of Cambridge, ESRC Center for Business Research, Austin Robinson Building, Sidgwick Avenue, Cambridge CB3 9DE, England. E-mail: md236@econ.cam.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40433 Dorsten, Linda E. Fertility decline in a U.S. population favoring large families: a hazard-model analysis of the effect of sib death on Amish fertility. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 18, No. 4, Aug 1999. 323-38 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper uses proportional hazards techniques and population data from a directory of the Old Order Amish of the Lancaster, PA settlement. It examines the effect of death of the immediately prior sibling on the risk of childbearing for up to 11 children. Prior research typically has pooled data for maternal cohorts. In contrast, separate models are estimated for each maternal cohort. The results are based on all reported first marriages of Amish women born between 1884-1973 (N = 4,066). Hazard models run separately for children of each birth order reveal that net of maternal age and length of the prior birth interval (and other statistical and design controls), the death of the prior sib significantly increases the risk of a subsequent birth for the lower birth orders. Separate models by maternal cohort show that sib death increases the risk primarily for later cohorts. The pattern of effects from child mortality and other variables suggests changes in fertility behavior among the Amish, who have strong, traditional norms opposing contraception and favoring large families."
Correspondence: L. E. Dorsten, State University of New York, Department of Sociology and Anthropology, W363 Thompson Hall, Fredonia, NY 14063. E-mail: dorsten@ait.fredonia.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40434 Durr-e-Nayab. Fertility preferences and behaviour: a case study of two villages in the Punjab, Pakistan. PIDE Research Report, No. 173, ISBN 969-461-084-2. 1999. ii, 27 pp. Pakistan Institute of Development Economics [PIDE]: Islamabad, Pakistan. In Eng.
"Demand for high number of children is believed to be a major reason for high fertility levels in Pakistan. The present report, based on a micro-study, investigates the fertility preferences and fertility behaviour of the women, and how they vary with differences in their socio-economic and demographic characteristics, in two villages in the Punjab province, Pakistan. The study found that despite the preferred family size being quite high, it was exceeded by the actual family size. The actual number of children the woman had was not a product of her personal choices and decision alone but an outcome of interaction among a complex set of factors, including social, cultural, economic, religious and demographic aspects of life. The factors that affected the fertility preference and behaviour most were the educational level of the woman, and her preferred number of sons. Based on the findings of the study, this report suggests an emphasis on female education and promotion of gender equity as means to lower the existing high levels of fertility in the country."
Correspondence: Pakistan Institute of Development Economics, P.O. Box 1091, Islamabad 44000, Pakistan. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40435 El-Kader, Magdy A.; El-Maksoud, Mohamed A. Trends in excess births due to unwanted fertility in the regions of Egypt (1980-1995). In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 231-53 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Trends in the components of fertility are analyzed for the five main regions of Egypt over the period 1980-1995 in an attempt to estimate the number of excess births due to unwanted fertility and to estimate what the fertility rate would be without these unwanted births. Data are from a number of surveys carried out in Egypt, including the 1995 Demographic and Health Survey. The results indicate that there are significant regional differences in the pace of the fertility decline, and that some 31.4 percent of the births occurring in 1995 were unwanted. The need to focus national family planning program efforts on regions such as rural Upper Egypt, where both the level of fertility and the number of unwanted births are high, is stressed.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40436 Fadeyi, Rhoda M.; Naguib, Mohamed. Fertility determinants and contraceptive use in Nigeria. In: CDC 27th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 1998. 193-214 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The aim of this study is to investigate and examine the determinants of fertility in Nigeria, to describe fertility and reproductive behaviour in Nigeria, to study fertility trends, patterns and contraceptive use in Nigeria, and to recommend policy measures in order to promote family planning and socio-economic development in Nigeria." Data are from the 1990 Demographic and Health Survey of Nigeria.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40437 Faria, Vilmar E.; Potter, Joseph E. Television, telenovelas, and fertility change in north-east Brazil. In: Dynamics of values in fertility change, edited by Richard Leete. 1999. 252-72 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
The role of institutional determinants of fertility change in northeastern Brazil in the complex chain of causation is examined. "The institutional determinants considered here are mainly those related to value orientations, preferences, and behavioral norms connected to family size, sexual behaviour, and reproductive behaviour.... Our emphasis will be on three other institutional developments that merit attention, at least in Brazil: (1) medical institutions, (2) social security institutions, and (3) mass media institutions (particularly television)." The authors make the case that television has played a major role in spreading new values and behavioral changes that have contributed to a decline in family size preferences and an increase in the demand for family planning.
Correspondence: V. E. Faria, University of Texas, Population Research Center, 1800 Main, Austin, TX 78712-1088. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40438 Freitez, Anitza. The role of education in theories of fertility: an analysis of the debate. [El rol de la educación en el marco de las teorías de la fecundidad: análisis de sus argumentos.] Temas de Coyuntura, No. 39, Jun 1999. 5-34 pp. Caracas, Venezuela. In Spa.
The author analyzes the role that the educational factor plays in the various theories of fertility that have been developed over time. Particular attention is given to the contribution of Latin American scholars to this issue. The author then examines the relevance of this theoretical issue to the current situation concerning the fertility transition in Venezuela. Particular attention is given to the specific policy measures that might help the least affluent sector of the population have fewer children.
Correspondence: A. Freitez, Universidad Católica Andrés Bello, Instituto de Investigaciones Económicas y Sociales, Departamento de Estudios Demográficos, Urb. Montalbán, La Vega, Apartado 20.332, Caracas 1020, Venezuela. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40439 Fu, Xuanning. A longitudinal and cross-cultural analysis of fertility decline. International Review of Sociology/Revue Internationale de Sociologie, Vol. 8, No. 2, Jul 1998. 207-26 pp. Abingdon, England. In Eng.
Some theoretical aspects of the global fertility decline are examined. Specifically, the author attempts to "make two contributions to the existing fertility literature by addressing the two criticisms on fertility theories. First, culture will be measured and examined in the context of development, and second, a modernization fertility model with culture indicators will be tested with longitudinal data." Data are from the World Bank's World Development Report and are for the period 1960-1990. The relative impact of economic development, female education, and religion on the pace of the fertility decline are assessed.
Correspondence: X. Fu, Brigham Young University, Department of Social Sciences, Laie, HI 96762. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40440 Fukuda, Nobutaka. Determinants of the timing of first childbearing in contemporary Japan: Socioeconomic or attitudinal factors? Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 55, No. 1, 1999. 1-20 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
"The purpose of this article is to examine determinants of the timing of fertility in contemporary Japan.....[In particular] we will investigate whether socio-economic and ideational factors do indeed affect the timing of first birth after marriage in Japan.... The results we obtained in this analysis show that socioeconomic factors play a critical role in determining the tempo of first childbearing. Compared to women with low educational qualifications, those with high educational qualifications tended to take a longer interval between marriage and first childbearing. This evidence suggests that the greater the earning capacity that women have, the later they will bear their first child. In this analysis, however, ideational factors did not appear to exert a significant effect on the timing of first birth."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40441 Hirschman, Charles; Young, Yih-Jin. The decline of fertility in Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Philippines: 1968-70 to 1988-90. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 99-12, [1999]. 28, 4, [7] pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"In this paper, we offer a continuation report from a comparative study of fertility decline in [Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand] based on microlevel census data from 1970, 1980 and 1990. In earlier work, we described patterns of fertility decline and tested cross-sectional and lagged multilevel models of fertility determination...and tested a preliminary model of fertility change for one country.... Here, we broaden the empirical analyses of this framework to test several key hypotheses from classical demographic transition theory on the causes of fertility change with data from three rounds of censuses for four countries."
Correspondence: University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center, Box 353340, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40442 Hoem, Jan M.; Prskawetz, Alexia; Neyer, Gerda. Third births in Austria: the effect of public policies, educational attainment, and labor-force attachment. Stockholm Research Reports in Demography, No. 134, ISBN 91-7820-139-X. Mar 1999. 49 pp. Stockholm University, Demography Unit: Stockholm, Sweden. In Eng.
"Total fertility in Austria has declined slowly but persistently from about 1.7 in the late 1970s to around 1.4 in the mid-1990s, a reduction of less than twenty per cent. As we show in this paper, a much stronger reduction (over fifty per cent) occurred over the same period in the standardized rate of third births. This decline was accompanied by a gradual postponement of the third birth over the years up through 1991-92, after which there was a sudden increase in the tempo of childbearing in response to a change in the parental-leave policy that inadvertently favored women who had their second or subsequent child shortly after their previous one.... We conclude that these results mirror some of the ambiguities in public policies in Austria, especially the tension between the development of gender equality and the dominance of traditional norms."
Correspondence: J. M. Hoem, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40443 Hossain, Anwar. Infant mortality and the decline of fertility in Bangladesh. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 35, 1998-1999. 95-113 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
"The main purpose of this article is to determine the effect of infant mortality on fertility decline with a comparative review of the decline in infant mortality and fertility in Bangladesh. The possible relation and interaction between infant mortality decline and fertility decline are described, based mainly on the Bangladesh Fertility Survey (BFS) 1989. In addition, information from other sources will be utilized to assess consistency and to arrive at reasonable conclusions concerning the levels and trends of fertility and infant mortality and also the increasing contraceptive prevalence rate."
Correspondence: A. Hossain, University of Helsinki, Department of Sociology, Population Research Unit, P.O. Box 18 Unioninkatu 35, 00014 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40444 Isselmou, Ahmed O. Fertility differentials in West African countries: a comparative study. In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 276-95 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
"The main purposes of this study can be stated as follows: 1. To evaluate the fertility levels and determinants in West African countries; 2. To examine the significance of various factors in explaining the major variations in fertility levels of these societies; [and] 3. To indicate the relationship, if any, between elements of social structure and factors affecting fertility." Data are from the Demographic and Health Surveys for Burkina Faso, Ivory Coast, Ghana, Mali, Nigeria, Senegal, and Togo, and from the 1991 Maternal and Child Health Survey for Mauritania.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40445 Japan. National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (Tokyo, Japan). Special issue: studies on the 11th National Fertility Survey in Japan (I). Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 54, No. 4, 1998. 125 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
This issue contains a selection of articles based on the 11th National Fertility Survey, conducted in Japan in 1997. Articles are included on changes in marital fertility; reproductive intentions and fertility control behavior; women's employment, reproductive behavior, and marital status; family networks of elderly parents in Korea and Japan; and household projections for Japan, 1995-2020.
Selected items are cited elsewhere in this issue of Population Index.
Correspondence: National Institute of Population and Social Security Research, 1-2-3 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo, Japan 100-0013. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40446 Khalifa, Mona A.; Sakani, Ouahiba. Human development and fertility in the Middle East and North African countries: a comparative study. In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 1-39 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
This study examines differences in levels of human development among the countries of the Middle East and North Africa as well as the impact of development on fertility. The results indicate the importance of strong family planning program efforts for achieving reductions in fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40447 Klomegah, Roger. Child fostering and fertility: some evidence from Ghana. International Journal of Sociology of the Family, Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 1998. 75-83 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This study used the 1993 Ghana Demographic and Health Survey (GDHS) data to describe the relationship between education, occupation, place of residence, and child fostering as well as the relationship between fostering and fertility. The standard individual recode file of the GDHS was used. The sample comprised married women, between ages 15-49, and who have children (N=2,520). Analysis has revealed that women's educational level and type of occupation are significantly associated with the practice of fostering. No association is found between rural or urban place of residence and fostering. There is a negative association between child fostering and women's fertility in the context of communication between spouses and modern contraceptive use."
Correspondence: R. Klomegah, Malaspina University, Department of Sociology, British Columbia, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40448 Knudsen, Lisbeth B. Recent fertility trends in Denmark: a discussion of the impact of family policy in a period with increasing fertility. Danish Center for Demographic Research, Research Report, No. 11, ISBN 87-90736-11-7. Nov 1999. 28 pp. Odense University, Danish Center for Demographic Research: Odense, Denmark. In Eng.
"This paper presents the main features of fertility trends in Denmark and discusses the trends and changes observed in relation to contemporary social policy, norms and living conditions in the Danish society. The first part of the paper describes trends in fertility and outlines important reproductive regulations and acts since the turn of the century, dividing this extended time span into four periods according to their fertility characteristics: 1901-1933, 1933-1963, 1963-1983 and from 1983 onwards. Subsequently, the two last periods will be dealt with in more detail as regards societal changes, social policy and other factors which might have influenced the different patterns of fertility in these periods."
Correspondence: SDU-Odense University, Danish Center for Demographic Research, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark. E-mail: per.b@demfo.sdu.dk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40449 Knudsen, Lisbeth B.; Murphy, Mike. Registers as data source in studies of reproductive behaviour. Danish Center for Demographic Research, Research Report, No. 12, ISBN 87-90736-12-5. 1999. 12 pp. Odense University, Danish Center for Demographic Research: Odense, Denmark. In Eng.
"This report describes how national registers in Denmark can be used in the creation of data sets for studies of reproductive behaviour. The most important registers in this respect are described. The usage of these data is exemplified by two ongoing studies: one about controlled fertility, in which complete information about the various types of reproductive outcome is stored, and another about inter-generational fertility patterns, in which the registers facilitate identification of individuals belonging to succeeding generations and provide information about their similarities and differences in the fertility patterns."
Correspondence: SDU-Odense University, Danish Center for Demographic Research, Campusvej 55, 5230 Odense M, Denmark. Author's E-mail: lbk@demfo.ou.dk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40450 Leete, Richard. Dynamics of values in fertility change. International Studies in Demography, ISBN 0-19-829439-5. LC 98-26345. 1999. xiv, 378 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
This volume is a product of a seminar on the fundamental factors that cause or inhibit fertility transitions. The seminar, jointly organized by the IUSSP Committee on the Comparative Analysis of Fertility and the Laboratoire de Démographie Economique et Sociale of the University of Geneva, was held in Sion, Switzerland, on February 16-19, 1994. The 15 papers are organized under four main topics: The value of children; The multi-dimensional nature of values and value change; Mechanisms of value change; and Gender values, religion, culture and fertility change. There is also an introduction summarizing the papers included in the volume by Richard Leete, and a concluding piece by John B. Casterline.
Selected items are cited elsewhere in this issue of Population Index.
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, Great Clarendon Street, Oxford OX2 6DP, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40451 Lehr, Carol S. Banking on fewer children: financial intermediation, fertility and economic development. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 4, 1999. 567-90 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"This paper shows that financial intermediation can influence fertility and labor allocation decisions by raising market wages. The increase in wages induces some households to abandon `traditional' labor intensive methods of production managed at the household level and supply labor to `modern' sector firms. Since it is optimal for households in the modern sector to have fewer children, the labor allocation decision leads to lower national fertility. A panel VAR [vector autoregression] using financial intermediation, fertility and industrial employment share data in 87 counties is estimated. The empirical results show that the data are consistent with the theoretical predictions."
Correspondence: C. S. Lehr, Virginia Commonwealth University, Department of Economics, Box 844000, Richmond, VA 23284-4000. E-mail: cslehr@vcu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40452 Lesthaeghe, Ron; Willems, Paul. Is low fertility a temporary phenomenon in the European Union? Population and Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 2, Jun 1999. 211-28, 405, 407 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"This article addresses two questions: (i) will the mere end of further postponement of fertility in the EU-countries lead to an appreciable rise in European fertility and bring total fertility rates closer to replacement level, as witnessed in the United States? and (ii) what are the chances that such a stop to postponement is imminent? The answer to the first question is positive, but only if there is enough recuperation of fertility at older ages.... With respect to the second question, female education and employment trends in tandem with ideational and family disruption data are used to speculate about the prospects for such an end to further fertility postponement and for fertility increases at older ages."
Correspondence: R. Lesthaeghe, Vrije Universiteit Brussel, Department of Demography, Pleinlaan 2, 1050 Brussels, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40453 Little, Ruth E.; Monaghan, Susan C.; Gladen, Beth C.; Shkyryak-Nyzhnyk, Zoreslava A.; Wilcox, Allen J. Outcomes of 17,137 pregnancies in two urban areas of Ukraine. American Journal of Public Health, Vol. 89, No. 12, Dec 1999. 1,832-6 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
An analysis of the outcomes of all pregnancies registered in two urban areas of Ukraine over a 19-month period from 1992 to 1994 is presented. "Sixty percent of the pregnancies were voluntarily terminated, generally before the 13th week. In pregnancies delivered at 20+ weeks, fetal mortality was 29 per 1,000, nearly 5 times the rate among Whites in the United States. There was a greater proportion of very early deliveries (20-27 weeks) in Ukraine, as well as higher death rates at all gestational ages. Perinatal mortality was estimated to be 35 per 1,000, about 3 times the U.S. rate."
Correspondence: R. E. Little, National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences, Epidemiology Branch, Mail Drop A3-05, P.O. Box 12233, Research Triangle Park, NC 27709. E-mail: little1@niehs.nih.gov. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

65:40454 Lodewijckx, Edith. Fertility and family surveys in countries of the ECE region: standard country report. Belgium. UN/ECE Economic Studies, No. 10k, Pub. Order No. GV.E.99.II.17. ISBN 92-1-116719-1. 1999. xi, 96 pp. UN Economic Commission for Europe [ECE]: Geneva, Switzerland; United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]: New York, New York. In Eng.
This is the twelfth in the series Fertility and Family Surveys (FFS) Standard Country Reports. This survey concerns Belgium and was carried out in 1991-1992. The report has substantive chapters on economic, social, and cultural trends; population trends; and FFS findings. The chapter on population trends has sections on fertility, nuptiality, mortality, population structure, households, and population policies. The chapter on FFS findings has sections on household composition, the parental home, partnerships, children, fertility regulation, fertility preferences, values and beliefs, and female education and occupation.
Correspondence: UN Economic Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40455 MacDonald, Kevin. An evolutionary perspective on human fertility. Population and Environment, Vol. 21, No. 2, Nov 1999. 223-46 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper illustrates evolutionary approaches to population issues. Life history theory is a general theoretical framework that incorporates environmental influences, contextual influences, and heritable variation. In general, physically or psychologically stressful environments delay maturation and the onset of reproductive competence. Perceptions of scarcity also result in lower fertility by delaying reproduction or having fewer children--a phenomenon viewed as an adaptation to ancestral environments.... The opportunity for upward social mobility typically results in delaying reproduction and lowering fertility in the interest of increasing investment in children.... Finally, I discuss the effects of between-group competition for resources on population issues. Immigration policy and group differences in fertility influence political power within and between societies, often with explosive results. Demographic expansion has often been an instrument of ethnic competition and is an important source of conflict in the contemporary world."
Correspondence: K. MacDonald, California State University, Department of Psychology, Long Beach, CA 90840-0901. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40456 MacDonald, Kevin B. Perspectives on fertility and population size. Population and Environment, Vol. 21, No. 2, Nov 1999. 115-254 pp. Kluwer Academic/Human Sciences Press: New York, New York. In Eng.
This special issue is the result of a symposium that took place during the meetings of the Association for Politics and Life Sciences, held in Boston, Massachusetts, in September 1998. The focus is on the analysis of the relationship between fertility and population size within the framework of evolutionary science.
Selected items are cited elsewhere in this issue of Population Index.
Correspondence: Kluwer Academic/Human Sciences Press, 233 Spring Street, New York, NY 10013-1578. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40457 Mahmud, Simeen. Reproductive change in Bangladesh and the latent demand hypothesis: What is the evidence? Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1-2, Mar-Jun 1997. 125-42 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
Reasons why fertility has declined significantly in Bangladesh even though no significant socioeconomic changes have occurred are analyzed. In particular, the author examines the hypothesis that a major cause of the fertility decline is the latent demand for lower fertility because Bangladeshis have never been strongly pronatalist. The importance of differences by socioeconomic status in the demand for contraceptive services is stressed.
Correspondence: S. Mahmud, Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies, Adamjee Court, Motijheel Commercial Area, Dhaka-2, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40458 Martine, George; Das Gupta, Monica; Chen, Lincoln C. Reproductive change in India and Brazil. ISBN 0-19-564291-0. 1998. xii, 419 pp. Oxford University Press: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The collective work presents a comparative analysis of the process of reproductive change and fertility decline in two large developing countries, Brazil and India. It is a product of seminars held at the Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies in 1995 and 1996. The 11 chapters, all by scholars from the two countries concerned, attempt to provide some fresh perspectives on the causes and consequences of reproductive change. The contrast is made between India, where large-scale state family planning programs have been operating since 1952, and Brazil, where state family planning initiatives are hesitant and capable of meeting only a small part of the effective demand. Nonetheless, "Brazil's fertility decline has been much more rapid and generalized than India's".
Correspondence: Oxford University Press, YMCA Library Building, Jai Singh Road, New Delhi 110 001, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

65:40459 Masih, Abul M. M.; Masih, Rumi. Is a significant socio-economic structural change a pre-requisite for "initial" fertility decline in the LDCs? Evidence from Thailand based on a multivariate cointegration/vector error correction modelling approach. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, Aug 1999. 463-87 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
The authors analyze fertility "in a temporal dynamic framework in the case of a developing Asian economy such as Thailand by binding the relationship between fertility and its determinants within a cointegrated system.... The results tend to indicate that in the complex dynamic interactions, the importance of the conventional `structural' hypothesis as a significant factor in bringing fertility down in the longer term cannot be denied."
Correspondence: A. M. M. Masih, Edith Cowan University, Faculty of Business, School of Finance and Business Economics, Joondalup Campus, Perth, WA 6027, Australia. E-mail: a.masih@cowan.edu.au. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40460 Matthews, Beverly J. The gender system and fertility: an exploration of the hidden links. Canadian Studies in Population, Vol. 26, No. 1, 1999. 21-38 pp. Edmonton, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"Using qualitative [Canadian] data from 110 married couples and 27 divorced men and women, the connections between gender structures and fertility strategies are explored: how does the household division of labour interact with individuals' gender role orientations to influence fertility strategies and how is this mediated by the cultural gender system?... The findings reveal that women and couples have fewer children than they desire because they have been unable to establish a satisfactory gendered division of labour on a micro level, not because their belief in equality has resulted in a desire for few or no children. The evidence also provides some indication that replacement fertility can be achieved in an egalitarian gender structure."
Correspondence: B. J. Matthews, University of Lethbridge, Department of Sociology, 4401 University Drive, Lethbridge, Alberta T1K 3M4, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40461 McIntosh, James. An analysis of reproductive behaviour in Canada: results from an intertemporal optimizing model. Journal of Population Economics, Vol. 12, No. 3, Aug 1999. 451-61 pp. Berlin, Germany. In Eng.
"Results based on a sample of Canadian households challenge the findings of most studies which show significant negative effects of schooling on the fertility of women under the age of 45. This is due to the application of methods to an optimization model which distinguish between those households which have completed their reproductive behaviour from those which have not. Completion status and the desired number of children are used to infer characteristics of the optimal programme which are then employed to derive a likelihood function."
Correspondence: J. McIntosh, Concordia University, Department of Economics, 1455 de Maisonneuve Boulevard West, Montreal, Quebec H3G 1M8, Canada. E-mail: jamesm@vaxz.concordia.ca. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40462 Merino Escobar, José M. Contextual effects and marital fertility: a multilevel model of parity in the Biobío region, Chile. [Efectos contextuales y fecundidad marital: un modelo de niveles múltiples de la paridez en la región del Biobío, Chile.] Notas de Población, Vol. 26, No. 67-68, Jan-Dec 1998. 55-100 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This is a multilevel analysis that [applies] a new statistical modelling method to determine contextual effects acting on the reproductive behaviour of women living in the Eighth Region of Chile, the Biobío Region.... The purpose of this study was to link data on the reproductive behaviour of fertile women...with the macro-structural properties of both the rural districts where they live...and of the comunas...where those districts are located.... The specific research topic was to determine the extent to which a dependent variable at the individual level, such as the total number of children ever born per woman, is accounted for by differences between districts and/or between comunas...; and also to determine how much was attributable, within each district, to individual variations stricto sensu. The method used was one of multilevel modelling using Poisson regression, by means of a statistical procedure known as hierarchical analysis with random effects."
Correspondence: J. M. Merino Escobar, Universidad de Concepción, Casilla 20-C, Concepción, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40463 Meyer, Christine S. Family focus or career focus: controlling for infertility. Social Science and Medicine, Vol. 49, No. 12, Dec 1999. 1,615-22 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"In order to shed light on the direction of causality between fertility timing and earnings, this paper uses medical diagnoses of infertility as instruments for age at first birth (for those women who did give birth) and childlessness among [U.S.] married women. Although multivariate ordinary least squares regression results find a positive correlation between childbirth at later ages and higher wages as well as between childlessness and increased wages, delays in childbearing due to infertility do not significantly increase a woman's wages. Thus, data from the 1995 National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) indicate that delaying childbirth does not, by itself, guarantee higher wages in the labor market. Therefore, this study does not support the conventional notion of the `mommy track' in which career success and motherhood are incompatible."
Correspondence: C. S. Meyer, Bentley College, Department of Economics, 175 Forest Street, Waltham, MA 02154. E-mail: cmeyer@twcny.rr.com. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40464 Meyer, D. Analysis of the fertility decline since 1989 in the state of Brandenburg. [Analyse des Geburtenrückgangs seit 1989 im Land Brandenburg.] Edition IFAD, No. 7, Oct 1993. 55 pp. Institut für Angewandte Demographie: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
After a quantitative and qualitative analysis of the fertility decline in the German state of Brandenburg, which was formerly part of East Germany, the author describes a survey carried out among 215 Brandenburg residents in 1993. Some in-depth interviews were also conducted. The author concludes that while the desire for children has not decreased, the decision to have children has become conditional on factors such as job security and income. In general, the trend seems to be toward childbearing later in the life cycle.
Correspondence: Institut für Angewandte Demographie, Sophienstraße 3, 10178 Berlin, Germany. E-mail: ifad@ifad.b.shuttle.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40465 Meyer, Rachel. Which Australians are having three or more children? People and Place, Vol. 7, No. 3, 1999. 31-8 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper discusses the importance of third and higher order births in the context of replacement level fertility, and then builds a model, one for males and one for females, which identifies a set of characteristics that predicts whether people with two children go on to have three or more." The focus is on the situation in Australia, and the data are mainly from the Negotiating the Life Course Survey, a telephone survey carried out in 1996-1997.
Correspondence: R. Meyer, Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40466 Michel, Harald; Finke, Robby. Institutional change and population trends: contributions to the fertility decline in the former East German states. [Institutioneller Wandel und Bevölkerungsentwicklung: Beiträge zum Geburtenrückgang in den neuen Bundesländern.] Edition IFAD, No. 11, Dec 1996. 44 pp. Institut für Angewandte Demographie: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
This report contains two articles on fertility trends in the former East Germany. The first describes demographic developments from reunification in 1989 to the mid-1990s. It also presents some possible explanations for these developments based on the social and economic changes associated with the collapse of the East German state. The second article contains the results of a survey conducted in 1996 among 15,714 primary and secondary school students in a school district of the former East Germany. The students were asked about their plans for the future, focusing on family formation and the desire for children.
Correspondence: Institut für Angewandte Demographie, Sophienstraße 3, 10178 Berlin, Germany. E-mail: ifad@ifad.b.shuttle.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40467 Mohamed, Ayat. Validation of an assumption in Bongaarts' model. In: CDC 27th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 1998. 261-82 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
Using Egyptian data, the author aims at "[1] Testing the validation of Bongaarts's assumption that on average, the positive fertility effect of a shortening of postpartum infecundability is offset by the negative fertility effect of a decline in the proportion of married women by analyzing the trends in the main proximate determinants of fertility during the period 1980-1993. [2] Determining the relative contribution of each of the main proximate fertility variables to the change in fertility level during the period 1980-1993." The two main data sources are the 1980 Egyptian Fertility Survey conducted as part of the World Fertility Survey and the 1993 Egypt Use Effectiveness of Contraceptive Survey, conducted with the support of the United Nations Fund for Population Activities (UNFPA). The author concludes that Bongaarts's assumption is not always valid.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40468 Mulay, Sanjeevanee. Demographic transition in Maharashtra, 1980-93. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 34, No. 42-43, Oct 16-29, 1999. 3,063-74 pp. Mumbai, India. In Eng.
"The main thrust of the article is to evaluate demographic transition in Maharashtra [India], especially during 12 years from 1980-92, on the basis of data made available by two national surveys on fertility and mortality rates, and family health. The study shows that despite high contraceptive prevalence in Maharashtra, there is a very moderate decline in birth rate.... Better reproductive health facilities leading to reduced foetal losses, lesser childlessness and reduced breast-feeding, can be said to be the main [factors contributing to high levels of fertility]. In such situation, only strengthening of IEC component of the family welfare services can result in decline in fertility in Maharashtra."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40469 Murphy, M. Is the relationship between fertility of parents and children really weak? Social Biology, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1999. 122-45 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
"The relationship between fertility of parents and children has been designated as `weak' by most investigators. This paper reviews the evidence over the past century and argues that, even allowing for problems with available data sources, the relationship was probably close to zero for pre-transitional populations. However, over time, the relationship has tended to become more substantial and is now of a similar order of magnitude in developed countries as other widely used explanatory variables. Possible mechanisms for the observed relationship are discussed, especially the roles of socialization and inherited factors. The types of data used are compared to the scientific questions posed, and the limitations of the common comparison of married-mother/married-daughter pairs are considered. Finally, some evidence from recent large-scale surveys in Britain and the United States is presented to show changes over recent periods and the relative effects of sibship size of fathers and mothers."
Correspondence: M. Murphy, London School of Economics and Political Science, Department of Population Studies, Houghton Street, Aldwych, London WC2A 2AE, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40470 Murphy, Mike. Is the relationship between fertility of parents and children really weak? Danish Center for Demographic Research, Research Report, No. 7, ISBN 87-90736-07-9. Jan 1999. 26 pp. Odense University, Danish Center for Demographic Research: Odense, Denmark. In Eng.
"The relationship between fertility of parents and children has been designated as `weak' by most investigators who have looked at this topic. This paper reviews the evidence over the past century.... Possible mechanisms for the observed relationship are discussed, especially the role of socialisation and inherited factors."
Correspondence: Odense University, Danish Center for Demographic Research, Hollufgaard, Hestehaven 201, 5220 Odense SØ, Denmark. Author's E-mail: m.murphy@lse.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40471 Nagarajan, R. Fertility transition in Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu: some issues. Man and Development, Vol. 21, No. 2, Jun 1999. 81-95 pp. Chandigarh, India. In Eng.
The author discusses fertility trends in the Indian states of Maharashtra and Tamil Nadu, with a focus on the rates of fertility decline in the two regions. Data from the National Family Health Survey are used to examine nuptiality patterns, fertility levels, and contraceptive practices and to determine causes of interstate variations in demographic behavior.
Correspondence: R. Nagarajan, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Pune 411 004, India. E-mail: gipe@vsnl.com. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40472 Nagarajan, R. The relationship between landholding and fertility in rural Tamil Nadu. Indian Journal of Economics, Vol. 79, No. 314, Jan 1999. 333-55 pp. Allahabad, India. In Eng.
"This paper examines the effect of landholding on fertility with the help of household level data collected from an agrarian community in rural Tamil Nadu [India].... According to [an] analytical model land is expected to influence intermediate variables (labour contribution of children, old age security expectations, consumption aspirations, fear about land subdivision, labour contribution of females) which in turn influence fertility."
Correspondence: R. Nagarajan, Gokhale Institute of Politics and Economics, Population Research Centre, Pune 411 004, India. E-mail: gipe@vsnl.com. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40473 Nakhla, Tharwat F. The impact of contraceptive prevalence on marital fertility pattern. In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 161-77 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The 1971 model of natural fertility proposed by Ansley Coale is used to analyze data from a number of fertility surveys carried out in Egypt during the 1980s and 1990s. The purpose of the study is to analyze levels, patterns, and trends in marital fertility and to explore the relationship between marital fertility and family planning prevalence.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40474 Ntavyohanyuma, Pie. The mode of production and demographic behavior: a contextual and historical analysis of the fertility decline in Rwanda. [Mode de production et comportements démographiques: une analyse contextuelle et historique du déclin de la fécondité au Rwanda.] Institut de Démographie, Serie Démographie, Monographie, No. 15, ISBN 2-87209-566-7. 1999. 357 pp. Academia-Bruylant: Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium; L'Harmattan: Paris, France. In Fre.
This is an analysis of the causes of the fertility decline that occurred in Rwanda between 1983 and 1992. It is based on a number of published sources as well as on data from official sources and demographic surveys. The focus is on the relationship between the modes of production employed in the country and the dynamics of the population. The author notes that the pressures on the available land supply that developed after 1983 because of the significant growth of population that had occurred, in the context of an economy that was overwhelmingly based on agriculture, caused a major collapse and reconstruction of the rural economy. The author concludes that the subsequent decline in fertility that occurred was a response to this agricultural crisis.
Correspondence: Academia Bruylant, Grand'Place 29, 1348 Louvain-la-Neuve, Belgium. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40475 Panopoulou, Giota; Tsakloglou, Panos. Fertility and economic development: theoretical considerations and cross-country evidence. Applied Economics, Vol. 31, No. 11, 1999. 1,337-52 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"The paper presents a theoretical background for the analysis of the relationship between fertility and a number of socioeconomic factors associated with the process of economic development and analyses empirically the relationship within a cross-country framework. Fertility is found to be negatively related with female education, urbanization and family planning and positively related with the levels of infant mortality and economic development, whereas no significant relationship between fertility and female labour force participation is established. Sensitivity analysis is performed and the policy implications of the empirical findings are briefly discussed." The analysis is based on data for 13 developed and 55 developing countries compiled primarily from World Bank sources.
Correspondence: P. Tsakloglou, Athens University of Economics and Business, Department of International and European Economic Studies, 76 Patision Street, Athens 10434, Greece. Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40476 Patel, Tulsi. The precious few: women's agency, household progressions and fertility in Rajasthan village. Journal of Comparative Family Studies, Vol. 30, No. 3, Summer 1999. 429-51 pp. Calgary, Canada. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Male authority and dynamics of power and privilege, and women's `structural mutedness' seem apparent. However, it is also accepted that wherever there is power there is resistance. In the light of the above issues, the paper explores women's exclusive domain of childbirth in rural Rajasthan in Northern India. It adopts the processual, life cycle and household development approach to constitute women's fertility career. It highlights the significance of women's agency in their efforts at maneuvering their own fertility outcomes without overthrowing mothering or patriarchy."
Correspondence: T. Patel, University of Delhi, Delhi School of Economics, Department of Sociology, Delhi 110 007, India. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40477 Ranjan, Priya. Fertility behaviour under income uncertainty. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 15, No. 1, Mar 1999. 25-43 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"This paper develops a two-period stochastic model of fertility behaviour to provide a possible explanation for the recent sharp decline in birth rates in the former Soviet Republics and Eastern European countries. Due to the existence of irreversibilities associated with the childbearing decision and the option of postponing childbearing for a later time, it may be optimal for individuals to postpone childbearing during times of increased income uncertainty."
Correspondence: P. Ranjan, University of California, Department of Economics, 3151 Social Science Plaza, Irvine, CA 92697. E-mail: pranjan@uci.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40478 Ravanera, Zenaida R.; Lee, Hwa Young; Rajulton, Fernando; Cho, Byung-Yup. Should a second demographic transition follow the first? Demographic contrasts: Canada and South Korea. Social Indicators Research, Vol. 47, No. 1, May 1999. 99-118 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This paper compares and contrasts the demographic situations in Canada and South Korea. Using a few familiar indicators, similarities and differences in demographic changes between the two countries are highlighted. In particular, the questions addressed in this paper are: Given that South Korea went through its first demographic transition quite rapidly, would it then undergo the second transition also? If yes, would its feature be similar to those of Canada (or to any other Western nation)? What factors would influence such a transition?"
Correspondence: Z. R. Ravanera, University of Western Ontario, Population Studies Centre, London, Ontario N6C 2A6, Canada. Location: Princeton University Library (DR).

65:40479 Retherford, Robert D.; Ogawa, Naohiro; Sakamoto, Satomi. Values and fertility change in Japan. In: Dynamics of values in fertility change, edited by Richard Leete. 1999. 121-47 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter considers how value change and underlying economic and social change have jointly affected fertility in Japan since 1950, when survey data on fertility-related values started to become available." The focus is on the period 1973-1995, during which fertility declined to a total fertility rate of 1.43. The authors suggest that fertility-related values in Japan have tended to lag behind actual changes in fertility because of the pace at which socioeconomic change has occurred.
Correspondence: R. D. Retherford, East-West Center, 1777 East-West Road, Honolulu, HI 96848. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40480 Roloff, Juliane. The income situation of families and its effect on reproductive behavior in the former East Germany. [Zur Einkommenssituation in den Familien und ihr Einfluß auf das generative Verhalten in der ehemaligen DDR.] Edition IFAD, No. 2, Jul 1996. 44, [12] pp. Institut für Angewandte Demographie: Berlin, Germany. In Ger.
This study seeks to illuminate the influence, if any, of income on the reproductive behavior of East Germany's population. Data are from three different sociological surveys carried out among approximately 8,000 East Germans from 1982 to 1991 regarding household circumstances and the desire for children. Official annual statistics on the financial situation of households were also used. The conclusion is reached that the average income of East German families did not significantly decrease, and that a link between the financial situation of households and the reproductive behavior of East Germans cannot be firmly established at this point.
Correspondence: Institut für Angewandte Demographie, Sophienstraße 3, 10178 Berlin, Germany. E-mail: ifad@ifad.b.shuttle.de. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40481 Rosero-Bixby, Luis. Interaction, diffusion, and fertility transition in Costa Rica: quantitative and qualitative evidence. In: Dynamics of values in fertility change, edited by Richard Leete. 1999. 210-36 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This chapter examines the role played by diffusion through social interaction in the Costa Rican fertility transition." The focus is on the autonomous spread, or contagiousness, of fertility control as a causal agent of the fertility transition. "This chapter's central hypothesis, that social contagion shapes fertility transition, can be translated into the key proposition that the adoption of birth control by some individuals influences the likelihood of adoption by others." This hypothesis is supported by evidence collected in focus groups.
Correspondence: L. Rosero-Bixby, Universidad de Costa Rica, Programa Centroamericano de Población/INISA, Apartado 833 2050, San José, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40482 Sackmann, Reinhold. Is an end of the fertility crisis in East Germany in sight? [Ist ein Ende der Fertilitätskrise in Ostdeutschland absehbar?] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 24, No. 2, 1999. 187-211 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger. with sum. in Eng; Fre.
"The unprecedented fertility decline in East Germany is an essential characteristic of the transformation crisis.... By means of cohort studies, the diverse age, period and cohort effects of the transformation process can be differentiated.... The impacts of the type of education received, the level of education, of cohort, of region and of the system change are analysed with regard to the timing of first and second births with reference to the time before and after German reunification."
Correspondence: R. Sackmann, Universität Bremen, Institut für Empirische und Angewandte Soziologie, Postfach 33 04 40, 28334 Bremen, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40483 Sainz de la Maza Kaufmann, Marta. Contraception in three Chibcha communities and the concept of natural fertility. Current Anthropology, Vol. 38, No. 4, Aug-Oct 1997. 681-7 pp. Chicago, Illinois. In Eng.
"Using data collected in three pretransitional Chibcha communities in Costa Rica, this study argues for the necessity of revising the concept of natural fertility. My hypothesis is that the high pretransition or current fertility of traditional populations reflects not the absence of the notion of controlling fertility but a social, economic, and cultural choice. In the three indigenous communities studied we find contraception being practiced by young, fertile women and also reported as having formerly been practiced by women past menopause. Furthermore, there is no difference between these groups with respect to the frequency of its use, although there are differences in methods: premenopausal women use primarily modern methods, while postmenopausal women report having used traditional ones."
Correspondence: M. Sainz de la Maza Kaufmann, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Departmento Antropología, Ciudad Universitaria, 28040 Madrid, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40484 Sánchez Barricarte, Jesús J. Reproductive behavior of married couples in Navarre and the Basque country. Analysis of the 1991 Spanish Sociodemographic Survey. [Comportamiento reproductivo de los matrimonios en Navarra y el País Vasco. Análisis de la Encuesta Sociodemográfica del INE de 1991.] Revista Española de Investigaciones Sociológicas, No. 83, Jul-Sep 1998. 217-35 pp. Madrid, Spain. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"The 1991 Spanish Socio-demographic Survey allows us to study the fertility of women born in the first half of the Twentieth Century. The various analyses we have conducted suggest that women born in the first decade of this century already practiced effectively some method of fertility control. The indexes we used (the index m of Coale and Trussell, the age of mother at last birth, the method proposed by Weir) indicate that fertility control within marriage was practiced earlier in urban areas and in the Basque Country than in rural areas and Navarre. In addition, we have shown the influence of age at marriage on the number of children born per women's reproductive lifetime."
Correspondence: J. J. Sánchez Barricarte, Universidad de Navarra, Ciudad Universitaria, 31080 Pamplona, Spain. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40485 Santow, Gigi; Bracher, Michael D. Traditional families and fertility decline: lessons from Australia's southern Europeans. In: Dynamics of values in fertility change, edited by Richard Leete. 1999. 51-77 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
Using the example of immigrants in Australia from southern Europe, the authors challenge some concepts about the importance of changes in preferences from large to small families as a necessary prerequisite for a decline in fertility. "We present here a case study that conflicts with such interpretations because it shows that family size can fall without corresponding change in the values attached to the family or family life. We question whether the size of a family is necessarily related at all to the value that different family members place on family life, and suggest that it may be wrong to assume that family size is as central a defining element of the family as it is often taken to be. We do not dispute the commonly expressed notion that changes in ideas about the importance of the family may be sufficient to catalyse a reduction in family size, but we do dispute that such changes are necessary."
Correspondence: G. Santow, Stockholm University, Demography Unit, 106 91 Stockholm, Sweden. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40486 Sarkar, B. N.; Mukhopadhyay, B. K. Control of population growth in India: statistical review of information (1958-59 to 1992-93). 1998. iii, 64 pp. Indian Academy of Social Sciences, Survey Research Centre: Calcutta, India. In Eng.
This is a critical review of data collected in India on fertility over the period from 1958 to 1993. The focus is on data collected in the 1960s in the National Sample Survey, and in the 1990s by the Sample Registration Scheme and the National Family Health Survey. Separate consideration is given to fertility, fertility differentials, and family planning. The author identifies several states that still have high rates of total fertility and adolescent fertility despite long-term efforts to develop programs designed to reduce fertility levels. These states include Bihar, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, and Uttar Pradesh.
Correspondence: Indian Academy of Social Sciences, Survey Research Centre, 157 Ashokegarh, Calcutta 700 035, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40487 Schkolnik, Susana; Chackiel, Juan. Latin America: demographic transition in less developed sectors. [América Latina: la transición demográfica en sectores rezagados.] Notas de Población, Vol. 26, No. 67-68, Jan-Dec 1998. 7-53 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
Demographic trends among the poorer sections of society in Latin America are analyzed using data from published sources. In particular, the authors examine declines in fertility and infant mortality, and attempt to distinguish between the effects of changes in educational status and actual changes in these demographic indicators within social groups. They note that desired fertility in disadvantaged groups is generally lower than actual fertility, although early marriage remains common and contraceptive practice is low. They also note that, in many countries, women with the lowest levels of education have contributed the most to reductions in national levels of fertility.
Correspondence: S. Schkolnik, UN Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía, División de Población, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40488 Schmertmann, Carl P.; Junqueira Caetano, André. Estimating parametric fertility models with open birth interval data. Demographic Research, Vol. 1, 1999. Rostock, Germany. In Eng.
"In the past thirty years, more than 100 censuses gathered fertility data through questions on women's date of last birth. The standard `births last year' (BLY) approach for such data truncates timing information, using binary indicators for births in the prior year only. The first author recently proposed consistent, maximum-likelihood estimation approaches using untruncated date of last birth (DLB). In this paper we extend DLB techniques to parametric models. We construct estimators for Coale-Trussell M and m parameters from open interval lengths. We apply the new procedure to Brazilian census data, producing maps and spatial statistics for BLY and DLB m estimates in 723 municipalities in Minas Gerais. DLB estimators are less sensitive to sampling error than BLY estimators. This increased precision leads to clearer spatial patterns of fertility control, and to improved regression."
Correspondence: C. P. Schmertmann, Florida State University, Center for the Study of Population, 659-C Bellamy Building, Tallahassee, FL 32306-4063.

65:40489 Schmertmann, Carl P. Fertility estimation from open birth-interval data. Demography, Vol. 36, No. 4, Nov 1999. 505-19 pp. Silver Spring, Maryland. In Eng.
"Censuses and surveys frequently collect information on period fertility through questions on the timing of last births. The standard approach to estimating fertility with open-interval data uses the proportion of women giving birth in the year before the interview. I propose a more efficient, maximum likelihood method for estimating fertility from open-interval data. I illustrate a mathematical derivation of the new method, perform sensitivity analyses, and conduct empirical tests with Brazilian census data. The new estimators have small biases and lower variance than standard estimators for open-interval data. Consequently, the new method is more likely to generate accurate results from small or moderately sized samples."
Correspondence: C. P. Schmertmann, Florida State University, Department of Economics, Tallahassee, FL 32306-2240. E-mail: schmertmann@fsu.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40490 Schneider, Jane; Schneider, Peter. Political economy and cultural processes in the fertility decline of Sicilian artisans. In: The methods and uses of anthropological demography, edited by Alaka M. Basu and Peter Aaby. 1998. 177-97 pp. Clarendon Press: Oxford, England. In Eng.
"This paper analyses the transition from high to low fertility of the artisan class in a rural town of the Sicilian interior. The transition occurred between the First and Second World Wars, a time of severe dislocation and economic downturn. We argue that the resulting hardships motivated artisans to want smaller families; yet we do not treat their impressive new commitment to family limitation as a mere economizing gesture, but regard it as reflecting, as well, pan-European cultural processes that contributed to the diffusion of a particular technique of family limitation: coitus interruptus. We ask specifically how the inter-war crisis affected local artisans. In addition, we examine their life ways in relation to both the gender dynamics of this technique and the communications networks carrying news of its contraceptive efficacy."
Correspondence: J. Schneider, City University of New York, Department of Anthropology, Flushing, NY 11367. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40491 Schoenmaeckers, Ronald C.; Lodewijckx, Edith. Demographic behaviour in Europe: some results from FFS Country Reports and suggestions for further research. [Veranderingen in het demografisch gedrag in Europa: enkele resultaten uit de FFS-landenrapporten en voorstellen voor verder onderzoek.] Bevolking en Gezin, Vol. 27, No. 2, 1998. 123-61 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"As part of its FFS [Fertility and Family Surveys] project the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations in Geneva has launched an international comparative research programme to come to a better understanding of the changes in reproductive behaviour and family formation in the ECE region. This paper provides a basis for the identification of specific research topics.... The paper shows that some more insight about the level and trends can be derived from results of the FFS Standard Country Reports. It is also argued that the FFS biographies would best be used in conjunction with contextual data to predict future demographic developments."
Correspondence: R. C. Schoenmaeckers, Centrum voor Bevolkings- en Gezinsstudie, Vlaamse Gemeenschap, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. E-mail: CBGS@wvc.vlaanderen.be. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40492 Schoenmaeckers, Ronald C.; Lodewijckx, Edith. Demographic behaviour in Europe: some results from FFS Country Reports and suggestions for further research. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 15, No. 3, Sep 1999. 207-40 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"As part of its FFS [Fertility and Family Surveys] project the Economic Commission for Europe of the United Nations in Geneva has launched an international comparative research programme to come to a better understanding of the changes in reproductive behaviour and family formation in the ECE region. This paper provides a basis for the identification of specific research topics. The paper starts by looking at the main trends that can be observed from registration data. It is obvious that Europe is far from homogeneous with respect to demographic behaviour. There are, for example, remarkable contrasts in the patterns of marriage and divorce. The paper shows that some more insight about the level and trends can be derived from results of the FFS Standard Country Reports."
Correspondence: R. C. Schoenmaeckers, Flemish Scientific Institute, Centre for Population and Family Studies, Markiesstraat 1, 1000 Brussels, Belgium. E-mail: CBGS@wvc.vlaanderen.be. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40493 Scott, Susan; Duncan, C. J. Nutrition, fertility and steady-state population dynamics in a pre-industrial community in Penrith, northern England. Journal of Biosocial Science, Vol. 31, No. 4, Oct 1999. 505-23 pp. Cambridge, England. In Eng.
"The effect of nutrition on fertility and its contribution thereby to population dynamics are assessed in three social groups (elite, tradesmen and subsistence) in a marginal, pre-industrial population in northern England. This community was particularly susceptible to fluctuations in the price of grains, which formed their basic foodstuff. The subsistence class, who formed the largest part of the population, had low levels of fertility and small family sizes, but women from all social groups had a characteristic and marked subfecundity in the early part of their reproductive lives. The health and nutrition of the mother during pregnancy was the most important factor determining fertility and neonatal mortality. Inadequate nutrition had many subtle effects on reproduction which interacted to produce a complex web of events."
Correspondence: S. Scott, University of Liverpool, School of Biological Sciences, P.O. Box 147, Liverpool L69 3BX, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40494 Shintani, Yuriko. Working women during marriage and childbearing periods and their defined factors in relation to changes in birth trends from the 1980s onward. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 54, No. 4, 1998. 46-62 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn. with sum. in Eng.
The author analyzes the employment of women in Japan during periods of marriage and childbearing. The focus is on changes in reproductive behavior among couples married in the 1980s or later. "Employment rates after marriage/during pregnancy for marriage cohorts in 1980 or later have gradually increased, and the timing of quitting work has been shifting from `marriage quitting work' to `childbearing quitting work.' First pregnancy intervals have also seemed to change since 1980, and, especially among the marriage cohorts in the late 1980s, the intervals of first pregnancy for wives working after marriage are getting longer, which leads to the delay in birth timing."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40495 Sibanda, Amson. Reproductive change in Zimbabwe and Kenya: the role of proximate determinants in recent fertility trends. Social Biology, Vol. 46, No. 1-2, Spring-Summer 1999. 82-99 pp. Port Angeles, Washington. In Eng.
"This study examines trends in proximate determinants of fertility in Zimbabwe and Kenya. Findings from the four Demographic and Health Surveys conducted in these countries show that the dramatic fall in fertility...is consistent with the underlying trends in the most important proximate determinants of fertility. In Zimbabwe, contraceptive use far exceeds other proximate determinants in influencing fertility levels and trends. The results show that the fertility inhibiting effects of contraception are more important than the effects of postpartum infecundability, marriage patterns, or sterility. The results also show that contraceptive use has its greatest suppressing effects in the middle and younger age groups. However, in Kenya, the dominant fertility inhibiting effect is postpartum infecundability, with contraception coming in second."
Correspondence: A. Sibanda, University of Pennsylvania, Population Studies Center, 3718 Locust Walk, Philadelphia, PA 19104-6298. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40496 Sporton, Deborah. Mixing methods in fertility research. Professional Geographer, Vol. 51, No. 1, Feb 1999. 68-76 pp. Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"Fertility research in population geography is rooted in a spatial demography tradition which places emphasis on the use of quantitative methodologies to analyse, model and project fertility. As data sources have become more sophisticated and abundant some have questioned whether research within the discipline is now too data-oriented resulting in a reluctance to embrace new methods and concepts. Alternative conceptualisations of fertility and reproduction are outlined which represent a shift away from general explanation to more differentiated understandings of reproductive behaviour and favour the use of qualitative methodologies in combination or in a multi-level framework. The paper illustrates, with reference to a research project in the Kalahari of Botswana, the potential for methodological pluralism in the study of fertility."
Correspondence: D. Sporton, University of Sheffield, Department of Geography, Sheffield S10 2TN, England. E-mail: D.Sporton@sheffield.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40497 Taniguchi, Hiromi. The timing of childbearing and women's wages. Journal of Marriage and the Family, Vol. 61, No. 4, Nov 1999. 1,008-19 pp. Minneapolis, Minnesota. In Eng.
"Early child bearers are more vulnerable to the adverse impact of children on wages than are those who delay childbearing. Early child bearers are likely to experience a higher wage penalty because their career interruptions occur during the critical period of career building. Education reduces the magnitude of the penalty. With the use of data from the young women cohort [a cohort born between 1944 and 1954] of the [U.S.] National Longitudinal Survey, I investigated the wage losses associated with the presence of children, net of work experience, while addressing unobserved heterogeneity. Consistent with life course theory, the timing of childbearing significantly influences the extent to which this event shapes women's life chances."
Correspondence: H. Taniguchi, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square, CB 8120, 123 West Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. E-mail: taniguch@email.unc.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40498 Thapa, Shyam; Neidell, Shara G.; Dahal, Dilli R. Fertility transition in Nepal. Contributions to Nepalese Studies, Vol. 25, Jul 1998. vii, 222 pp. Tribhuvan University, Centre for Nepal and Asian Studies: Kirtipur, Nepal. In Eng.
This special issue presents selected papers from the conference Fertility Transition in Nepal: Changing Context and Dynamics, held in Katmandu, November 25-26, 1997. "The objectives of the conference were: (1) to assess and evaluate changes in the patterns and levels of fertility in Nepal; (2) to analyze and discuss the changing context and dynamics of the fertility transition; and (3) to draw implications from these changes."
Correspondence: Tribhuvan University, Centre for Nepal and Asian Studies, Kirtipur, Nepal. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40499 Thomas, Neil; Price, Neil. The role of development in global fertility decline. Futures, Vol. 31, No. 8, Oct 1999. 779-802 pp. Oxford, England. In Eng.
"At the first intergovernmental global Population Conference at Bucharest in 1974, delegates from the Third World argued that rapid population growth would only be controlled when a more equitable relationship was established between the More and Less Developed Countries, leading to accelerated social and economic development in the latter. Over the subsequent quarter of a century this perspective has been progressively displaced as the dominant paradigm by the view that sustained fertility decline can be accomplished through good quality family planning programmes in the context of gender-sensitive social policies, including formal education. This paper is an attempt to establish whether the abandonment of the Bucharest ideology is justified on the basis of subsequent theoretical developments in fertility studies, and by global demographic trends over the period."
Correspondence: N. Thomas, University of Wales, Department of City and Regional Planning, P.O. Box 906, Cardiff CF1 3YN, South Glamorgan, Wales. E-mail: thomasnh@cardiff.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40500 Togunde, Oladimeji R. A social structural analysis of the effects of women's employment on fertility in urban Nigeria. International Journal of Sociology of the Family, Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 1998. 31-46 pp. New Delhi, India. In Eng.
"This paper focuses on a social structural analysis of women's employment and fertility in Nigeria, by looking at how the structure of the family, ethnicity, and women's position within the household or society impact the employment-fertility relationship. Data come from a 1988 National survey of 8,529 currently married women in urban Nigeria, and multinomial logistic regression models were used to estimate employment effects at specific [parities] during a five-year period. Findings indicate that although Nigerian women employed (in either [the] formal or informal sector) are more likely than those not working to have had one birth or at least two births within a five-year period, employment effects do not differ across the three major ethnic groups in which the social position of women differs."
Correspondence: O. R. Togunde, Albion College, Albion, MI 49224. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40501 Ventura, Stephanie J.; Mosher, William D.; Curtin, Sally C.; Abma, Joyce C.; Henshaw, Stanley. Highlights of trends in pregnancies and pregnancy rates by outcome: estimates for the United States, 1976-96. NCHS National Vital Statistics Reports, Vol. 47, No. 29, Dec 15, 1999. 9 pp. U.S. National Center for Health Statistics [NCHS]: Hyattsville, Maryland. In Eng.
"This report presents key findings from a comprehensive report on pregnancies and pregnancy rates for U.S. women. The study incorporates birth, abortion, and fetal loss data to compile national estimates of pregnancy rates according to a variety of characteristics including age, race, Hispanic origin, and marital status. Summary data are presented for 1976-96. Data from the National Survey of Family Growth (NSFG) are used to show information on sexual activity and contraceptive practices, as well as women's reports of pregnancy intentions."
Correspondence: U.S. National Center for Health Statistics, 6525 Belcrest Road, Hyattsville, MD 20782-2003. E-mail: nchsquery@cdc.gov. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40502 Villasmil, Mary C. Fertility in poor families: a hypothesis for its study. [Fecundidad en familias en situación de pobreza: hipótesis para su estudio.] Papeles de Población, Vol. 4, No. 18, Oct-Dec 1998. 175-88 pp. Toluca, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This article has an object to propose some routes through...which to explain the reproductive behavioral characteristics in families in poverty.... The context [is] Latin American, with greater reference to Mexico." The author attempts to explain why the general fertility decline in Latin America, and Mexico in particular, has not been seen among poor families.
Correspondence: M. C. Villasmil, Facultad Latinoamericana de Ciencias Sociales, Apartado 5429, 1000 San José, Costa Rica. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40503 Visaria, Leela. Proximate determinants of fertility in India: an exploration of NFHS data. Economic and Political Weekly, Vol. 34, No. 42-43, Oct 16-29, 1999. 3,033-40 pp. Mumbai, India. In Eng.
"Variations in fertility are generally examined in terms of socio-economic factors such as education, income, caste, place of residence. These factors can affect fertility only through intermediate variables such as proportion of females married, prevalence of contraceptive use, incidence of induced abortion and the fertility inhibiting effect on breastfeeding. This article attempts to estimate the values of the proximate determinants of fertility for major states [in India] after examining available evidence and interstate variations in these factors."
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40504 Waldorf, Brigitte. Impacts of immigrant fertility on population size and composition. In: Migration and restructuring in the United States: a geographic perspective, edited by Kavita Pandit and Suzanne D. Withers. 1999. 193-211 pp. Rowman and Littlefield: Lanham, Maryland/London, England. In Eng.
"The purposes of this study...are to investigate adjustments in fertility behavior in response to international migration and to estimate the resulting aggregate population changes.... Specifically, [it] provides empirical evidence of immigrants' fertility adjustments, using examples from the United States and Germany; conceptualizes and formalizes the impact of fertility decline on immigrant population size and composition; and simulates the impact of fertility decline under three scenarios. The first assumes no fertility decline subsequent to migration. The second scenario portrays the so-called disruption hypothesis whereby immigrant women lower their fertility immediately following their international move and then return to their initial fertility levels. The third scenario replicates the conditions of the exposure hypothesis, which states that as immigrant women extend their stay abroad, their fertility levels decline and adjust to the low fertility levels of the host societies."
Correspondence: B. Waldorf, University of Arizona, Department of Geography and Regional Development, Tucson, AZ 85721. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40505 Wu, Zheng. Fertility and family surveys in countries of the ECE region: standard country report. Canada. UN/ECE Economic Studies, No. 10k, Pub. Order No. E.99.II.E.11. ISBN 92-1-116714-0. 1999. x, 82 pp. UN Economic Commission for Europe [ECE]: Geneva, Switzerland; United Nations Population Fund [UNFPA]: New York, New York. In Eng.
"Over the last four decades, the Canadian family has undergone dramatic change.... Using data from the 1990 Canadian General Social Survey (GSS-90), this report examines some of these changes in the context of a life-course perspective." Tabular data are included on social, economic, and cultural trends; population growth; age distribution; fertility; family formation and dissolution; mortality; household size and composition; fertility regulation and preference; and women's education and occupation.
Correspondence: UN Economic Commission for Europe, Palais des Nations, 1211 Geneva 10, Switzerland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40506 Yadava, K. N. S.; Yadava, Surendar S. Women's status and fertility in rural India. History of the Family, Vol. 4, No. 2, 1999. 209-28 pp. Stamford, Connecticut. In Eng.
"This article examines the relationship between women's status and fertility in India in the current (third) phase of the Indian fertility transition that began in the period 1900-1920. Variables used in the study include caste, occupation, and education of husband and wife, educational status of the household, role of female in the society, autonomy in decision-making, and interaction with and exposure to mass media. Women's status is conceptualized at the micro-level using the household as a unit; and the macro-level using society as a unit.... The variables, age-specific fertility rate, fecundity, and the number of children ever born, have been used as measures of fertility. Among other findings, the study reveals that there is a difference of approximately two births in the total fertility rate between low status and high status groups of women, and that there is an inverse relationship between the autonomy in decision-making and the level of fertility."
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40507 Zaid, Mohamed A. Factors associated with fertility in Egypt 1993. In: CDC 27th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia. 1998. 241-60 pp. Cairo Demographic Centre: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
The author examines the relationship between the number of children ever born to women in Egypt and the following factors: age at first marriage, current age, breastfeeding duration, place of residence, employment status, education, and husband's education. Data are from the 1993 Survey of Use Effectiveness of Contraceptives in Egypt.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40508 Zhang, Fangyu. An analysis of Chinese fertility and the factors that affect Chinese fertility. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1998. 133-48 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This paper analyzes...fertility data from the 1992 Chinese fertility investigation of women of child bearing age using the multiple level logit regression method. This paper discussed the factors that affect the fertility rate of a female from the rural [areas] of China.... Fertility is analyzed...at four different levels: individual, community, county, and provincial. The study results show that state family planning and birth control policy have a significant impact on the fertility of women with a lower fertility rate (women with one child or two children)."
Correspondence: F. Zhang, University of North Carolina, Carolina Population Center, University Square, CB 8120, 124 East Franklin Street, Chapel Hill, NC 27516-3997. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40509 Zhang, Weiguo. Economic reforms and fertility behaviour in rural China: an anthropological and demographic inquiry. European Journal of Population/Revue Européenne de Démographie, Vol. 15, No. 4, Dec 1999. 317-48 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"How have Chinese economic reforms which started in the late 1970s affected individual fertility behaviour in rural China? This research attempts to explain how the deliberate policies of institutional reforms affect fertility outcomes through processes which are both filtered by, as well as reshape, existing social institutions. It is based on fieldwork in a Hebei village from July 1992 to November 1993. It finds that after the reforms, rural Chinese marry at earlier ages. However, declining age at marriage does not increase fertility. Rural couples prefer to have fewer children, and their motivation '[to have] girls becomes stronger."
Correspondence: W. Zhang, University of Botswana, Faculty of Social Sciences, Population and Sustainable Development Programme, Private Bag 0022, Gaborone, Botswana. E-mail: ZHANGW@NOKA.UB.BW. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

F.2. Differential Fertility

Studies on differences in fertility patterns and levels in subgroups of a population. Also included are studies on age-specific fertility, such as teenage pregnancy.

65:40510 Chandola, T.; Coleman, D. A.; Hiorns, R. W. Recent European fertility patterns: fitting curves to "distorted" distributions. Population Studies, Vol. 53, No. 3, Nov 1999. 317-29 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Recent patterns of fertility in Europe show marked differences between countries. Recent United Kingdom and Irish fertility curves show `distortions' in terms of a `bulge' in early age fertility, distinct from the smoother curves of other European countries. These patterns may not be adequately described by mathematical functions used by previous studies to model fertility curves. A mixture model with two component distributions may be more appropriate. The suitability of the simple and mixture Hadwiger functions is examined in relation to the fertility curves of a number of European countries. While the simple Hadwiger model fits recent period age-specific fertility distributions for some countries, others which display a `bulge' in early age fertility require a mixture Hadwiger model. Some of the parameters of the Hadwiger models appear to be related to familiar demographic indices. The simple and mixture Hadwiger models appear useful in describing and comparing fertility patterns across European countries."
Correspondence: T. Chandola, University of Oxford, Department of Applied Social Studies and Social Research, Barnett House, Wellington Square, Oxford OX1 2ER, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40511 Crump, Aria D.; Haynie, Denise L.; Aarons, Sigrid J.; Adair, Elissa; Woodward, Kathy; Simons-Morton, Bruce G. Pregnancy among urban African-American teens: ambivalence about prevention. American Journal of Health Behavior, Vol. 23, No. 1, Jan-Feb 1999. 32-42 pp. Star City, West Virginia. In Eng.
The factors that influence African-American females to early pregnancy are examined using data on 37 females aged 14-17 collected in focus-group sessions in an urban hospital out-patient clinic in Washington, D.C. "Participants suggested that although pregnancy and parenting are best delayed until one is older, they are common, manageable experiences. Contraceptive use was deemed as important, though contraceptive options were often perceived as ineffective, unsafe, or unpleasant."
Correspondence: A. D. Crump, University of Maryland, Department of Health Education, HHP Building, Room 2387, College Park, MD 20742. E-mail: ac166@umail.umd.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40512 David, Patricia H. On differentials in family-building patterns. Harvard Center for Population and Development Studies Working Paper Series, No. 97.08, Dec 1997. 27 pp. Harvard University, Center for Population and Development Studies: Cambridge, Massachusetts. In Eng.
"This study of family-building patterns takes women as the unit of analysis and uses a population-specific measure of fertility to examine factors associated with childbearing patterns in two populations [in Egypt and Peru]. Women who have a `high-risk' pattern of childb