Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.
Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.
65:40149 Lee, James Z.; Wang, Feng.
One quarter of humanity: Malthusian mythology and Chinese
realities, 1700-2000. ISBN 0-674-63908-1. LC 99-11863. 1999. xii,
248 pp. Harvard University Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts/London,
England. In Eng.
"In this book we summarize our current
understanding of Chinese demography and construct a sytlized model of
Chinese demographic behavior that confronts the `ideal' model first
proposed by Malthus and elaborated by others on the basis of European,
especially English, population behavior. By revising the current
understanding of Chinese society and economy over the last three
centuries, Chinese demographic behavior not only provides an
alternative demographic model to the Malthusian model of preventive and
positive checks; it also reveals that many differences in population
behavior between East and West are a product of regional and historical
differences in social organization rather than of different population
checks."
Correspondence: Harvard University Press, 79
Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40150 Moreno Coello, Georgina.
Some reflections on the Mexican population in the nineteenth
century. [Algunas consideraciones en torno a la población
mexiquense durante el siglo XIX.] Papeles de Población, Vol. 4,
No. 16, Apr-Jun 1998. 101-47 pp. Toluca, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in
Eng.
Economic and population exchanges among Mexican regions and
cities during the nineteenth century are analyzed. Sections are
included on the population of the state of Mexico from 1826 to 1848;
the fragmentation of Mexico between 1848 and 1869; and Mexico and its
population, 1869-1917. Tabular data are included on population change,
regional patterns, mortality, and migration.
Correspondence:
Author's E-mail: coello@msh-paris.fr. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40151 Srb, Vladimír.
Demography of the sub-Carpathian Ukraine, 1918-1938.
[Obyvatelstvo Podkarpatské Rusi 1918-1938.] Demografie, Vol. 41,
No. 3, 1999. 207-19 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in
Eng.
"During 1918-1938 the Sub-Carpathian Ukraine was a part
of the Czechoslovak Republic. This contribution presents basic
demographic data from the 1921 and 1930 population censuses and the
1920-1938 population movement compared to state-wide totals. It also
analyses processes [occurring] in those years."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40152 Yousif, Mona T.
Development of demographic profile of Egypt 1800-1996. In: CDC
26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and
Asia, 1996. 1997. 89-109 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In
Eng.
This study consists of a review of population trends in Egypt
from 1880 to 1996 using census and vital statistics data. The quality
of the available data sources is first assessed. The study concludes
with a brief review of migration trends and population projections up
to the year 2021.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.
65:40153 Avdeev, Alexandre; Blum,
Alain. The Russian population: Reasons for hope? [La
population russe: des raisons d'espérer?] Population et
Sociétés, No. 351, Nov 1999. 4 pp. Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in Russia are briefly reviewed. There are
sections on the deterioration in the available demographic statistics,
mortality, nuptiality and fertility, population decrease, and political
factors.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes
Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20,
France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:40154 Bay, Guiomar. Use of
symptomatic variables for estimating population in small areas.
[El uso de variables sintomáticas en la estimación de la
población de áreas menores.] Notas de Población,
Vol. 26, No. 67-68, Jan-Dec 1998. 181-208 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa.
with sum. in Eng.
"This study presents four methods for
estimating population in small areas, using models based on existing
administrative records. It also analyses the use of such methods in the
region. Four methods were selected: pro rata distribution, proportional
distribution, ratio correlation, and difference correlation. Each one
is briefly described and its subsequent use in Chile and Costa Rica is
discussed. In both countries, data from the period before the latest
census were used, and estimates were obtained for the areas covered at
the time of the census; this enabled the models in use to be evaluated.
The study also lists the obstacles encountered during the project,
mostly regarding the basic data, and the ways in which the obstacles
were overcome are described."
Correspondence: G. Bay,
UN Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía,
División de Población, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida
Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40155 Bergouignan, Christophe.
Communal post-census demography. [Démographie post
censitaire communale.] In: Démographie et aménagement du
territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie.
Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal
Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 153-67 pp. Conférence
Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]:
Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
The various ways that are used in France to obtain the population
estimates needed at the communal level for figuring out appropriate
levels of expenditures on public services in the intercensal years are
described. Three types of methods are described, those based on census
and vital statistics only, those that involve conducting surveys, and
those based on annual data that become available from local
administrations. In view of the fact that all these methods have their
drawbacks, the author recommends a judicious use of all three
approaches in order to obtain the best possible
estimates.
Correspondence: C. Bergouignan,
Université Montesquieu--Bordeaux IV, Avenue Léon-Duguit,
33608 Pessac, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40156 Hungary. Központi Statisztikai
Hivatal (Budapest, Hungary). The spatial distribution of
the Slovak population by nationality and administrative district,
1991. [A Szlovák köztársaság
településeinek nemzetiségi, vallási adatai,
1991.] ISBN 963-215-129-1. 1996. 367 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun.
with sum. in Eng.
This is one in a series of publications that the
Hungarian statistical office is publishing on the population of areas
that in the past were part of Hungary, but now form part or all of
independent countries. This publication gives results from the 1991
census of Slovakia on population by sex, religion, and ethnic group by
district.
Correspondence: Központi Statisztikai
Hivatal, Keleti Károly Utca 5-7, 1024 Budapest, Hungary.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40157 Kucera, Milan; Simek,
Miroslav. Population development of the Czech Republic in
1998 (based on the results of the Czech statistical office
processing). [Vývoj obyvatelstva Ceské republiky v
roce 1998 (Zvýsledku zpracování Ceského
statistického úradu).] Demografie, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1999.
169-83 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
The
authors summarize population trends in the Czech Republic in 1998 and
compare these trends with those of previous years. Aspects considered
include nuptiality, live birth rate, fertility rate, life expectancy,
death rate, population decrease, age structure, and future
changes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40158 Labat, Jean-Claude. A
new method to estimate local populations. [Une nouvelle
méthode d'estimations des population locales.] In:
Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe
colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996,
edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999.
141-52 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et
d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires
de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Ways to estimate population at
the local level in a country that does not have a national population
register in the period between censuses are examined by describing some
recent French efforts to resolve this problem. The French solution
described here is based on using data from a variety of sources to
prepare such estimates.
Correspondence: J.-C. Labat,
Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18
boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40159 Lévy, Michel L.
All the countries of the world (1999). [Tous les pays du monde
(1999).] Population et Sociétés, No. 348, Jul-Aug 1999. 8
pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris,
France. In Fre.
This issue presents the demographic data on
individual countries around the world compiled on a regular basis by
the Population Reference Bureau [PRB]. In addition, some comparisons
are made between the PRB data and some recent estimates and projections
made by the United Nations.
Correspondence: Institut
National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980
Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40160 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine,
Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the
developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population: An
English Selection, Vol. 4, 1992. 233-52 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors provide information on the demographic situation in
Europe and other developed countries. Tabular data are included on
population size, births, and deaths; fertility; nuptiality; divorce;
abortions; and mortality.
Correspondence: A. Monnier,
Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout,
75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: monnier@ined.fr. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40161 Mostafa, Golam. Health
and Demographic Surveillance System, Matlab--1998: early
indicators. ICDDR, B Monograph, May 1999. 12 pp. International
Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [ICDDR, B]: Dhaka,
Bangladesh. In Eng.
This report presents some data collected during
1998 by the Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab,
Bangladesh. Tables and figures provide information on population size
and characteristics; fertility and contraceptive use; mortality,
including infant and child mortality, life expectancy, and cause of
death; marriage; seasonality of births and deaths; and immunization
coverage.
Correspondence: G. Mostafa, International Centre
for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Health and Demographic
Surveillance System, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40162 Mozambique. Direcção
Nacional de Estatística (Maputo, Mozambique).
Population projections by year: 1980-2030.
[Projecções anuais da população total:
1980-2030.] Inquérito Demográfico Nacional, No. 2, Feb
1994. 57 pp. Maputo, Mozambique. In Por.
Population estimates and
projections are provided by age and sex for Mozambique from 1980 to
2030.
Correspondence: Comissão Nacional do Plano,
Centro de Documentação Económica, Avenida Ahmed
Sekou Touré No. 21, 1o andar, C.P. 491, Maputo, Mozambique.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40163 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyrå
(Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population by age, sex, and
marital status. January 1, 1998. Revised version. [Folkemengd
etter kjønn, alder og sivilstand. 1. januar 1998. Korrigert
utgave.] Aktuelle Befolkningstall, No. 6, Oct 1998. 71 pp.
Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
The former Population Statistics
Volume II from Norway's Offisielle Statistikk has been replaced by this
publication in a new series entitled New Figures on Population. The
publication contains revised data on population in Norway by age, sex,
and marital status as per January 1, 1998, compiled on the basis of
data extracts from the Central Population Register. The data are
presented separately by county and municipality.
Correspondence:
Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Salg- og Abonnementservice, Postboks
1260, 2201 Kongsvinger, Norway. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:40164 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyrå
(Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population on January 1, 1998,
and population changes in 1997. Provisional figures for
municipalities. [Folkemengd 1 januar 1998 og endringar i 1997.
Endelige tal for kommunar.] Aktuelle Befolkningstall, No. 8, Dec 1998.
21 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
The former Population
Statistics Volume I from Norway's Offisielle Statistikk has been
replaced by this publication in a new series entitled New Figures on
Population. The publication contains figures on population size in
Norway per January 1, 1998, and final figures on changes in population
size in 1997 for counties, regions, and municipalities. The figures are
compiled on the basis of data extracted from the Central Population
Register.
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyrå,
Salg- og Abonnementservice, Postboks 1260, 2201 Kongsvinger, Norway.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40165 Population Reference Bureau [PRB]
(Washington, D.C.). 1999 United States population data
sheet. 1999. 1 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This poster
provides tabular data on U.S. population characteristics. Information
is included by state on population size, growth rate, and spatial
distribution; infant deaths; age distribution; household income; ethnic
groups, 1997 and 2015; percent nonwhite; and percent foreign
born.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875
Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. E-mail:
popref@prb.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40166 Population Reference Bureau [PRB]
(Washington, D.C.). 1999 world population data sheet:
demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the
world. 1999. 12 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This world
population data sheet, available in poster or booklet form, provides
demographic statistics for countries and regions in 1999. Information
is included on population size and growth, births, deaths, natural
increase, infant mortality, fertility, age distribution, life
expectancy, contraceptive use, and gross national
product.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875
Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. E-mail:
popref@prb.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40167 Prioux, France. Recent
demographic trends. [L'évolution démographique
récente.] Population, Vol. 54, No. 3, May-Jun 1999. 449-79 pp.
Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in France are
reviewed. Consideration is given to fertility, induced abortion,
marriage patterns, divorce, and differential mortality. Comparisons are
made with other European countries.
Correspondence: F.
Prioux, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard
Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40168 Russia. Goskomstat Rossii (Moscow,
Russia). The size of the population of the Russian
Federation by cities, urban settlements, and regions as of January 1,
1998. [Chislennost' naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii po gorodam,
poselkam gorodskogo tipa i raionam na 1 Yanvarya 1998 g.] 1998. 241 pp.
Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population estimates are presented for the
Russian Federation for 1997. The estimates are presented by regions,
administrative divisions, urban areas and settlements, and rural
areas.
For previous estimates for 1996, see 64:40072.
Correspondence: Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44,
105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40169 Sailer, Peter; Weber,
Michael. The IRS population count: an update. In:
1998 proceedings of the section on government statistics and section on
social statistics. [1998]. 186-90 pp. American Statistical Association
[ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This is a continuation of the
authors' study on the problems involved in using IRS administrative
records to prepare estimates of the U.S. population size.
"Organizationally, this paper is divided into four sections.
First, we will demonstrate how administrative records can be used to
compute a population estimate. Then we will discuss the reliability of
this estimate. Next, we will compare estimates from our data base,
classified by age, sex, and state, to population data published by the
Census Bureau. And finally, we will summarize our conclusions and make
some recommendations for further research."
For an earlier
study on the same topic, see 62:30059.
Correspondence: P.
Sailer, U.S. Internal Revenue Service, P.O. Box 608, Washington, D.C.
20013-2608. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40170 Westoff, Charles F. The
global population outlook. In: America's demographic tapestry:
baseline for the new millennium, edited by James W. Hughes and Joseph
J. Seneca. 1999. 43-9 pp. Rutgers University Press: New Brunswick, New
Jersey. In Eng.
Global population trends are reviewed, with
consideration given to future prospects, the differences between
developed and developing countries, and the lack of public concern with
demographic issues.
Correspondence: C. F. Westoff,
Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect
Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.
65:40171 Alders, M.; de Beer, J.
Probability distribution of the future population, 1998-2050.
[Kansverdeling van de toekomstige bevolking, 1998-2050.]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 10, Oct 1999. 28-36 pp.
Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"According to
the medium variant of the 1998-based population forecasts of Statistics
Netherlands the population of the Netherlands will grow from 15.8
million persons in 1999 to 17.4 million people in 2035. After 2035
population size will decrease to a level slightly above 17 million
people in 2050. This forecast is based on assumptions about the likely
future development of fertility, mortality, and migration.... In order
to assess the degree of uncertainty of future population size and age
structure, stochastic population forecasts were made. On the basis of
assumptions about the degree of uncertainty of future fertility,
mortality, and migration a probability distribution of future
population size and age structure is
calculated...."
Correspondence: M. Alders, Statistics
Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg,
Netherlands. E-mail: mals@cbs.nl. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40172 Alders, M. Stochastic
household forecast 1998-2050. [Stochastische huishoudensprognose
1998-2050.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 11, Nov
1999. 25-34 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Forecasts of future trends in households in the Netherlands are
presented. "The stochastic household forecast is based on
assumptions about the uncertainty of future changes in the distribution
of population by sex, age and household position. The main assumptions
concern the age at leaving the parental home, the proportions of people
living alone or with a partner and the proportion of the population
living in institutional households. A strong correlation exists between
household positions. A relatively high proportion of singles at a
certain age will automatically lead to a relatively small proportion of
persons living with a partner at that age. To model this type of
correlation conditional probabilities are used."
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40173 Banens, Maks. Projecting
small-area populations. [La prévision des sous-populations
territoriales.] In: Démographie et aménagement du
territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie.
Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal
Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 195-205 pp. Conférence
Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]:
Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Some of the factors that need to be taken into account when making
small-area population projections for France are examined using
projections for the department of Hérault up to the year 2020 as
an example. The need to modify extrapolations based on past trends by
taking into account information gained from a rational analysis of
current trends is stressed.
Correspondence: M. Banens,
Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Chemin du Thil, 80025 Amiens
Cedex 01, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40174 Birg, H.; Flöthmann, E.-J.;
Frein, Th.; Ströker, K. Calculations for simulating
population trends in the old and new German states in the twenty-first
century. [Simulationsrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung
in den alten und neuen Bundesländern im 21. Jahrhundert.]
IBS-Materialien, Vol. 45, ISBN 3-923340-39-7. 1998. 232 pp.
Universität Bielefeld, Institut für
Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik [IBS]: Bielefeld, Germany.
In Ger.
The authors present population projections for Germany to
the year 2100. The projections are also given separately for East and
West Germany. They suggest that the two most important trends during
this time will be population aging, and increasing internationalization
through migration.
Correspondence: Universität
Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und
Sozialpolitik, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40175 Courbage, Youssef.
Reshuffling the demographic cards in Israel/Palestine. Journal
of Palestine Studies, Vol. 28, No. 4, Summer 1999. 21-39 pp. Berkeley,
California. In Eng.
"After analyzing the data from the 1997
Palestinian census, this article looks at the likely demographic
evolution in Israel/Palestine as a whole and within Israel proper
(pre-1967 borders), both with regard to the Jewish and Arab populations
and within the Jewish segment on the basis of geographic origin
(Ashkenazi and Mizrahim). Finally, a few observations are made
regarding the political consequences of demographic
developments."
Correspondence: Y. Courbage, Institut
National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980
Paris Cedex 20, France. Location: Princeton University Library
(PR).
65:40176 de Beer, J. Population
development 1900-2100. [Bevolkingsontwikkeling 1900-2100.]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 12, Dec 1999. 9-16 pp.
Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"In the 20th
century population size in the Netherlands has increased from 5.1
million in 1900 to almost 15.9 million in 2000. The population size
will continue to grow in the 21st century, but the rate of growth will
slow down. In the first four decades of the 21st century population
will grow by 1.5 million people. Subsequently population size will
decrease slightly to 17.1 million at the end of the 21st
century."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40177 de Beer, J.; Alders, M.
Stochastic population forecast. [Stochastische
bevolkingsprognose.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 10,
Oct 1999. 10-7 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This general
introduction to population forecasting is based on a paper, originally
in English, that was presented at the European Population Conference
held in The Hague, Netherlands, in 1999. Copies of the paper can be
obtained from the first author on request.
Correspondence:
J. de Beer, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O.
Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, Netherlands. E-mail: jber@cbs.nl.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40178 de Beer, J.; Alders, M.
Uncertainty range of fertility, mortality, and migration.
[Onzekerheidsmarges voor geboorte, sterfte en migratie.]
Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 10, Oct 1999. 18-27 pp.
Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This article is based on a paper,
originally in English and entitled Probabilistic population and
household forecasts for the Netherlands, that was presented at the
European Population Conference held in The Hague, Netherlands, in 1999.
Copies of the paper can be obtained from the first author on
request.
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Statistics
Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg,
Netherlands. E-mail: jber@cbs.nl. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40179 de Beer, Joop; van Wissen,
Leo. Europe: one continent, different worlds. Population
scenarios for the 21st century. European Studies of Population,
Vol. 7, ISBN 0-7923-5841-4. LC 99-34299. 1999. xvi, 189 pp. Kluwer
Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
On the occasion of the
European Population Conference 1999, "two of the
organisers...decided to produce a set of two population scenarios,
showing the possible impact of converging and diverging population
trends in the next century.... On the basis of the two sets of
assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration, the
population scenarios project changes in the size and age structure of
the population over the next 50 years for 33 European countries. This
book describes the specific assumptions underlying the scenarios and
presents the main demographic outcomes. The enclosed CD-ROM with the
Scenariobrowser includes detailed results."
Correspondence:
Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AH Dordrecht,
Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40180 De Gans, Henk A.
Population forecasting 1895-1945: the transition to modernity.
European Studies of Population, Vol. 5, ISBN 0-7923-5537-7. LC
98-45860. 1999. xiv, 290 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands.
In Eng.
"This book comprises the history of the origin and
establishment of modern population forecasting methodology and the
resistance the new methodology met. It demonstrates...that the
emergence of modern population forecasting resulted in a drastic change
of the societal position of the forecaster, the consequences of which
resound till present time. The book uncovers the first contribution to
the description and theory of the demographic transition in the
publications of the early innovators of population forecasting. It lays
bare the pioneering position of inter-war population forecasting in the
Netherlands and clarifies why the innovative endeavours of Dutch
population forecasters of that period remained hidden in international
histories nevertheless."
Correspondence: Kluwer
Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, Netherlands.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40181 Hirschman, Charles. Race
and ethnic population projections: a critical evaluation of their
content and meaning. Seattle Population Research Center Working
Paper, No. 99-13, Oct 1998. 33 pp. University of Washington, Seattle
Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"In
this essay, I raise fundamental questions about the technical bases and
the standard interpretation of the long-term projections of the U.S.
population by race and ethnicity." Sections are included on the
content of race and ethnic population projections, the assumptions
driving the projections, measurement in past censuses, patterns of
ethnic intermarriage, and the uncertainty of ethnic
identity.
Correspondence: University of Washington, Seattle
Population Research Center, Box 353340, Seattle, WA 98195.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40182 Hugo, Graeme. Six
billion and counting: global population trends at the turn of the
century. People and Place, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1999. 11-8 pp. Clayton,
Australia. In Eng.
"This paper seeks to summarise the findings
of the latest biennial revision of world population projections made by
the United Nations Population Division in 1998.... The projections are
prepared for five main fertility assumptions (medium, high,
high/medium, low/medium and low) as well as two illustrative (but
unrealistic) scenarios, one of instant achievement of replacement
fertility (which shows `the momentum' of population growth) and one of
keeping current levels of fertility
constant."
Correspondence: G. Hugo, University of
Adelaide, Department of Geography, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40183 Johnson, Hans P. How
many Californians? A review of population projections for the
state. California Counts: Population Trends and Profiles, Vol. 1,
No. 1, Oct 1999. 12 pp. Public Policy Institute of California: San
Francisco, California. In Eng.
"To give policymakers and
others concerned with projecting population a sense of the range of
projections and why the range is so wide, this report compares and
analyzes population projections produced for [California] by various
organizations: the California Department of Finance, the U.S. Census
Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, UCLA, and the Center for
Continuing Study of the California Economy. Those projections are used
in short- and long-range planning by local, state, and federal
government agencies, as well as by private
firms."
Correspondence: Public Policy Institute of
California, 500 Washington Street, Suite 800, San Francisco, CA 94111.
E-mail: info@ppic.org. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40184 Kabir, M.; Sarkar, Madhusudan;
Sharma, P. D. The prospect for stabilization of
Bangladesh's population: alternative scenarios. Bangladesh
Development Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1-2, Mar-Jun 1997. 173-87 pp. Dhaka,
Bangladesh. In Eng.
Prospects for stabilization of the population
of Bangladesh under four alternative demographic scenarios are
examined. The authors note that, if the present rate of fertility
decline continues, a replacement level rate of fertility will be
achieved by the year 2002. A population model developed in connection
with the Sustainable Human Development Project is used to examine four
alternative scenarios concerning the implications of the year in which
replacement levels of fertility will be achieved for the size of the
population in the year 2050.
Location: Princeton University
Library (PF).
65:40185 Khaw, Kay-Tee. How many,
how old, how soon? British Medical Journal, Vol. 319, No. 7221,
Nov 20, 1999. 1,350-2 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this
article I present population projections for the United Kingdom and
discuss some possible implications for health.... [Data are from] age
specific population projections to 2066 for the United Kingdom from the
Office for National Statistics." The results indicate that
"the number of people aged 60 years and over in the United Kingdom
is projected to increase from 12 million (20% of the population) in
2001 to 18.6 million in 2031 (30%) [and] the numbers of people with
various chronic diseases and disabilities are also projected to
increase two to threefold."
Correspondence: K.-T.
Khaw, University of Cambridge, School of Clinical Medicine,
Addenbrookes Hospital, Clinical Gerontology Unit, Box 251, Cambridge
CB2 2QQ, England. E-mail: Kk101@medschl.cam.ac.uk. Location:
Princeton University Library (SZ).
65:40186 Kippen, Rebecca. A note
on ageing, immigration and the birthrate. People and Place, Vol.
7, No. 2, 1999. 18-22 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"The
ageing of Australia's population is inevitable. Immigration could
increase the size of the population substantially but still have little
effect on the age structure. If policymakers want to minimise the
proportion aged 65 and over without adding large numbers of extra
people, it would be more effective to adopt policies that raised
fertility."
Correspondence: R. Kippen, Australian
National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography
Program, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40187 Leridon, Henri. Six
billion...and then? [Six milliards...et après?] Population
et Sociétés, No. 352, Dec 1999. 4 pp. Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
On
the occasion of the world population reaching an estimated total of six
billion, the author examines the prospects for future stabilization of
the world's population. The various projections prepared by the United
Nations are reviewed and the likelihood of their accuracy assessed. The
author concludes that the end of global population growth is probably
in sight, but that the poorest regions are likely to continue to
experience considerable population growth for some time to
come.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes
Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20,
France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:40188 Li, Nan; Hu, Huaqing.
Random demographic projection for China. Chinese Journal of
Population Science, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1998. 121-31 pp. New York, New
York. In Eng.
"The LTC method for random demographic
projection...consists of random mortality and fertility projection and
random demographic projection.... In this study, the LTC method is used
in the random demographic projection for China. As part of the
scientific decision-making process, the probability is given of a
certain demographic condition appearing at a future point in order to
evaluate quantitatively the possibility of achieving population control
at that point as a basic national policy. The LTC method itself is also
explained."
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40189 Louchart, Philippe; Sagot,
Mariette. Is it possible to simulate population trends in
a large number of zones? [Comment simuler l'évolution de la
population d'un grand nombre de zones?] In: Démographie et
aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de
démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine
d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 171-82 pp.
Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des
Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France:
Paris, France. In Fre.
Some of the problems faced by local planners
in France are illustrated in this description of how population
projections were prepared for the Ile-de-France region, which contains
a population of around 10 million and is divided into 33 different
sectors. The various alternative methods that were considered for
making these projections are described, and the reasons for choosing a
method that involved estimating future population trends for the region
as a whole and then proceeding to subregional estimates are
explained.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40190 Lutz, Wolfgang. The need
to reassess the role of the population variable in global
development. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 35,
1998-1999. 30-8 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
The author discusses
methods of assessing the role of population trends in sustainable human
development. Regional results are presented for probabilistic
projections assuming uncorrelated fertility and mortality for 2020,
2050, and 2100.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Program, 2361
Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40191 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de
Statistiek (Voorburg, Netherlands). Monthly Bulletin of
Population Statistics. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Special
ed. No. 5, May 1999. [117] pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In 1995 Eurostat commissioned Statistics Netherlands and the
Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute to compile national
and regional population and household scenarios for the countries of
the European Economic Area. This special edition of Maandstatistiek van
de Bevolking includes reprints of...articles describing both the
assumptions underlying these scenarios and the main results."
There are articles on population growth, mortality, fertility,
international migration, and households.
All these articles are
translated from the original Dutch, many of which were cited in
Population Index.
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de
Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270, AZ Voorburg,
Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40192 Nishioka, Hachiro; Suzuki, Toru;
Yamamoto, Chizuko; Kojima, Katsuhisa; Koyama, Yasuyo.
Household projections for Japan: 1995-2020. Jinko Mondai
Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 54, No. 4, 1998. 85-114 pp.
Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Household projections are presented by age
for Japan up to the year 2020.
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40193 O'Neill, Brian C.; Scherbov, Sergei;
Lutz, Wolfgang. The long-term effect of the timing of
fertility decline on population size. Population and Development
Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Dec 1999. 749-56, 834-6 pp. New York, New York.
In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Existing long-range population
projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a
relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when
compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed
eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of
the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility
rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of
the timing of the transition becomes. This finding has important
implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies
related to the consequences of long-term levels of population
size."
Correspondence: B. C. O'Neill, Brown
University, Watson Institute for International Studies, Providence, RI
02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40194 Panama. Dirección de
Estadística y Censo (Panama City, Panama). The
demographic situation. Population projections for the whole country by
sex and age group: 1990-2025. [Situación
demográfica. Proyección de la población total del
país por sexo, según grupos de edad: años
1990-2025.] Estadística Panameña, Boletín
Especial, No. 1, 1999. 25 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
Official
population projections are presented for Panama, based on a variety of
sources, including the 1990 census. Four alternative projections are
provided for the whole country by sex and age group up to the year
2025.
Correspondence: Dirección de
Estadística y Censo, Contraloría General de la
República, Apartado 5213, Panama City 5, Panama. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40195 Sagot, Mariette.
Population projections and development policies. The case of the
Ile-de-France. [Perspectives démographiques et politiques
d'aménagement. Le cas de l'Ile-de-France.] In:
Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe
colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996,
edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999.
231-6 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et
d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires
de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Some problems concerning local
area population projections in France are examined. Specifically, the
author uses experience in making projections for the Ile-de-France to
attempt to answer three questions: Do past errors in making such
projections justify not using them in future? What lessons can be
learned from the experience of the Ile-de-France in trying to link
demography and local planning? And what is the role of the demographer
in defining local development policies?
Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40196 Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David
A. On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population
forecast accuracy. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 18,
No. 4, Aug 1999. 299-322 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the summary measure
most often used for evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts.
While MAPE has many desirable criteria, we argue from both normative
and relative standpoints that the widespread practice of exclusively
using it for evaluating population forecasts should be changed.
Normatively, we argue that MAPE does not meet the criterion of validity
because as a summary measure it overstates the error found in a
population forecast. We base this argument on logical grounds and
support it empirically, using a sample of population forecasts for
[U.S.] counties. From a relative standpoint, we examine two
alternatives to MAPE, both sharing with it, the important conceptual
feature of using most of the information about error. These
alternatives are symmetrical MAPE (SMAPE) and a class of measures known
as M-estimators. The empirical evaluation suggests M-estimators do not
overstate forecast error as much as either MAPE or SMAPE and are,
therefore, more valid measures of
accuracy."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego
Association of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA
92101-4231. E-mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40197 Tharakan, P. K. Michael; Navaneetham,
K. Population projection and policy implications for
education: a discussion with reference to Kerala. Centre for
Development Studies Working Paper, No. 296, Jun 1999. 38 pp. Centre for
Development Studies: Thiruvananthapuram, India. In Eng.
"In
the context of high levels of public expenditure, already committed to
the educational sector in States like Kerala, it is argued that there
should be restrictions on further investment. Such arguments are
apparently supported by the fact that the birth rate is declining and
therefore it will result in lesser number of school age population.
Since this trend directly affect the elementary education sector--the
most sensitive--it is important to project the school age populations
with realistic assumptions. This study uses the recent information on
the trends in fertility and reproductive preferences to make a
realistic future assumption on fertility. Since the total fertility
rate (TFR) is distorted by the changes in the timing of child bearing,
the initial level of TFR was adjusted in the projection
assumption."
Correspondence: Centre for Development
Studies, Prasanthnagar Road, Ulloor, Thiruvananthapuram 695 011,
Kerala, India. E-mail: Krpcds15@giasmd01.vsnl.net.in. Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40198 Tian, Xueyuan. Trend of
the Chinese population in the 21st century and policy choice
issues. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 10, No. 2,
1998. 107-20 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses
population trends in China during the twenty-first century. Sections
are included on overall trends in population and birth control;
development of education, employment policy, and reform; the growth of
the working-age population and unemployment; population aging and
elderly support; urbanization and transfer of rural surplus labor; and
the increasingly mobile population and the development of central and
western China.
Correspondence: X. Tian, Chinese Academy of
Social Sciences, Institute of Population Studies, 5 Jianguomennei
Avenue, Beijing 100732, China. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:40199 United Kingdom. Office for National
Statistics (London, England). National population
projections, 1996-based. No. 21, ISBN 0-11-621160-1. 1999. viii,
55 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Population projections are
presented by age and sex for the United Kingdom, Great Britain, and the
constituent countries up to the year 2066.
Correspondence:
Stationery Office, Publications Centre, P.O. Box 276, London SW8
5DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40200 Yadava, K. N. S.; Yadava, Surendar
S. A comparative study of measures employed for projecting
the population size and the number of households. In: Studies in
applied demography: proceedings of the 5th International Conference on
Applied Demography, 1994, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao. 1996. 79-94 pp.
Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and
Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This
paper deals with the issue of estimating the trends of future growth of
population and households, simultaneously. For this purpose, measures
such as the household to population ratio, age-specific headship rate,
household composition matrix, and household fertility have been applied
under certain assumptions. The system under consideration has been
assumed to be open to migration. The consistencies of the projections
obtained and the measures employed have also been discussed with the
help of data from two sample surveys conducted in rural areas of
northern India, using household as a unit of measurement, over a period
of 13 years. The estimates of population and household at given future
dates indicate that, among the measures used, the household composition
matrix and the household fertility measures are relatively more
consistent."
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava, Banaras
Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.
65:40201 Antonov, Anatolii I.
Russia's demographic future: Is depopulation here forever?
[Demograficheskoe budushchee Rossii: depopulyatsiya navsegda?]
Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 3, 1999. 80-7, 157 pp. Moscow,
Russia. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author "looks into the
trends developing in Russian families and the birth rates. [He] comes
to the conclusion that depopulation might turn into a decisive factor
for the Russian Federation in the first third of the twenty-first
century. Forecast birth rates are criticized for taking no
consideration of sociologically obtained findings related to the family
attitudes for decreasing the number of children in a family. A strong
supportive policy regarding...families with children is seen as the
only way to an improvement in the demographic situation of
Russia."
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).
65:40202 Goldstein, Joshua R.; Schlag,
Wilhelm. Longer life and population growth.
Population and Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Dec 1999. 741-7,
83-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Enthusiasm about the prospect of large increases in human
life expectancy is often dampened by fears that lower mortality will
increase population size, hence population pressure. A simple
mathematical model of life-cycle stretching demonstrates that if
increased longevity is accompanied by later childbearing, a trend that
is already underway, future declines in mortality will not increase
population size."
Correspondence: J. R. Goldstein,
Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect
Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. E-mail: josh@princeton.edu.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40203 Heuveline, Patrick. The
global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions,
1950-2000. Population and Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Dec
1999. 681-702, 833-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre;
Spa.
"During the second half of the twentieth century, world
population grew at a record pace, both in absolute and relative terms,
from 2.5 billion to 6 billion (or 1.75 percent annually). Demographers
have long identified rapid mortality declines as the main explanation.
This article finds that one-fourth of today's world population is alive
because of mortality improvements since mid-century. Very rapid growth
is unlikely to continue as substantial fertility declines also occurred
in recent decades. This article finds that already by the year 2000,
these fertility declines have almost exactly compensated for the impact
of mortality declines from mid-century levels. This result may suggest
homeostasis, but analyses of underlying trends contradict this
impression. First, the impact of fertility declines will soon and
significantly exceed that of mortality declines. Second, that mortality
and fertility declines jointly affect the size of the world population
by less than one percent conceals a significant impact on the
population's age composition as well as on regional population
sizes."
Correspondence: P. Heuveline, University of
Chicago, Department of Sociology, Chicago, IL 60637-2799. E-mail:
p-heuveline@uchicago.edu. Location: Princeton University
Library (SPR).
65:40204 Monnier, Alain; Rychtarikova,
Jitka. The division of Europe into east and west.
Population: An English Selection, Vol. 4, 1992. 129-59 pp. Paris,
France. In Eng.
"In May-June 1991, Population presented a
special issue on Eastern Europe. The classic population trends were
examined in turn, to provide an overall view of the situation in this
region on the eve of its radical political transformation. After 40
years of parallel histories, the populations of Eastern Europe had in
many cases come to show common demographic profiles. [The authors]
reconsider these elements here in a comparison with Western Europe and
show how, since 1950, the two blocs have first moved together, then
apart."
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National
d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex
20, France. E-mail: monnier@ined.fr. Location: Princeton
University Library (SPR).
65:40205 Nahari, Bahman L. The
momentum of population growth in Iran. Nameye
Olum-e-Ejtema'i/Journal of Social Sciences, No. 13, Spring-Summer 1999.
Tehran, Iran. In Per. with sum. in Eng.
Recent demographic trends
in Iran are analyzed. The author notes that although fertility is
declining rapidly, the momentum of past demographic trends means that
the population will continue to grow over the next 35 years by about 25
million. Future trends are analyzed using the stable population method
developed by Lotka.
Location: Princeton University Library
(SPR).
65:40206 Reuna, Veera. Population
data on Finland 1900-1998. Yearbook of Population Research in
Finland, Vol. 35, 1998-1999. 196-203 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Tabular data are presented for Finland for the period 1900-1998.
Information is included on population size, age structure, fertility,
live births, abortions, marriages, consensual unions, divorces, family
type and size, deaths, life expectancy, international and internal
migration, the labor force, and unemployment.
Location:
Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40207 Rogers, Andrei; Little, Jani; Raymer,
James. Disaggregating the historical demographic sources
of regional foreign-born and native-born population growth in the
United States: a new method with applications. International
Journal of Population Geography, Vol. 5, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1999. 449-75
pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
"In this paper we offer a
general method for analysing the demographic processes that contribute
to population growth and redistribution in a multiregional system....
It uses an open multiregional projection model framework for
identifying the contributions to regional growth made by each of the
principal demographic components of change: fertility, mortality,
immigration, emigration, in-migration and out-migration. At the same
time, the method recognises the important of disaggregating the
native-born and foreign-born populations." The method is applied
to U.S. data for the period 1950-1990.
Correspondence: A.
Rogers, University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science,
Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).
65:40208 Sutton, Keith.
Demographic transition in the Maghreb. Geography, Vol. 84, Pt.
2, No. 363, Apr 1999. 111-8 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
The
author comments on an article by John Clarke, in which Clarke
"demonstrated the very limited demographic transition experienced
by North Africa as part of the Muslim World. Over a decade later all
the Maghreb countries, together with Egypt, have achieved quite marked
demographic transition based on strong fertility decline.... Factors
behind this transition include urbanisation, the education of women and
their greater participation in employment, and family planning. Another
factor, whose potential was considered by Clarke in 1985, is the
contribution of Maghreb immigrant families in Europe to changing value
systems in their home communities, leading to fertility
decline."
Correspondence: K. Sutton, University of
Manchester, Department of Geography, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL,
England. E-mail: K.Sutton@manchester.ac.uk. Location:
Princeton University Library (PR).
