Volume 65 - Number 4 - Winter 1999

D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

65:40149 Lee, James Z.; Wang, Feng. One quarter of humanity: Malthusian mythology and Chinese realities, 1700-2000. ISBN 0-674-63908-1. LC 99-11863. 1999. xii, 248 pp. Harvard University Press: Cambridge, Massachusetts/London, England. In Eng.
"In this book we summarize our current understanding of Chinese demography and construct a sytlized model of Chinese demographic behavior that confronts the `ideal' model first proposed by Malthus and elaborated by others on the basis of European, especially English, population behavior. By revising the current understanding of Chinese society and economy over the last three centuries, Chinese demographic behavior not only provides an alternative demographic model to the Malthusian model of preventive and positive checks; it also reveals that many differences in population behavior between East and West are a product of regional and historical differences in social organization rather than of different population checks."
Correspondence: Harvard University Press, 79 Garden Street, Cambridge, MA 02138. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40150 Moreno Coello, Georgina. Some reflections on the Mexican population in the nineteenth century. [Algunas consideraciones en torno a la población mexiquense durante el siglo XIX.] Papeles de Población, Vol. 4, No. 16, Apr-Jun 1998. 101-47 pp. Toluca, Mexico. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
Economic and population exchanges among Mexican regions and cities during the nineteenth century are analyzed. Sections are included on the population of the state of Mexico from 1826 to 1848; the fragmentation of Mexico between 1848 and 1869; and Mexico and its population, 1869-1917. Tabular data are included on population change, regional patterns, mortality, and migration.
Correspondence: Author's E-mail: coello@msh-paris.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40151 Srb, Vladimír. Demography of the sub-Carpathian Ukraine, 1918-1938. [Obyvatelstvo Podkarpatské Rusi 1918-1938.] Demografie, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1999. 207-19 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
"During 1918-1938 the Sub-Carpathian Ukraine was a part of the Czechoslovak Republic. This contribution presents basic demographic data from the 1921 and 1930 population censuses and the 1920-1938 population movement compared to state-wide totals. It also analyses processes [occurring] in those years."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40152 Yousif, Mona T. Development of demographic profile of Egypt 1800-1996. In: CDC 26th annual seminar on population issues in the Middle East, Africa and Asia, 1996. 1997. 89-109 pp. Cairo Demographic Center: Cairo, Egypt. In Eng.
This study consists of a review of population trends in Egypt from 1880 to 1996 using census and vital statistics data. The quality of the available data sources is first assessed. The study concludes with a brief review of migration trends and population projections up to the year 2021.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

65:40153 Avdeev, Alexandre; Blum, Alain. The Russian population: Reasons for hope? [La population russe: des raisons d'espérer?] Population et Sociétés, No. 351, Nov 1999. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in Russia are briefly reviewed. There are sections on the deterioration in the available demographic statistics, mortality, nuptiality and fertility, population decrease, and political factors.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40154 Bay, Guiomar. Use of symptomatic variables for estimating population in small areas. [El uso de variables sintomáticas en la estimación de la población de áreas menores.] Notas de Población, Vol. 26, No. 67-68, Jan-Dec 1998. 181-208 pp. Santiago, Chile. In Spa. with sum. in Eng.
"This study presents four methods for estimating population in small areas, using models based on existing administrative records. It also analyses the use of such methods in the region. Four methods were selected: pro rata distribution, proportional distribution, ratio correlation, and difference correlation. Each one is briefly described and its subsequent use in Chile and Costa Rica is discussed. In both countries, data from the period before the latest census were used, and estimates were obtained for the areas covered at the time of the census; this enabled the models in use to be evaluated. The study also lists the obstacles encountered during the project, mostly regarding the basic data, and the ways in which the obstacles were overcome are described."
Correspondence: G. Bay, UN Centro Latinoamericano y Caribeño de Demografía, División de Población, Edificio Naciones Unidas, Avenida Dag Hammarskjold, Casilla 91, Santiago, Chile. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40155 Bergouignan, Christophe. Communal post-census demography. [Démographie post censitaire communale.] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 153-67 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
The various ways that are used in France to obtain the population estimates needed at the communal level for figuring out appropriate levels of expenditures on public services in the intercensal years are described. Three types of methods are described, those based on census and vital statistics only, those that involve conducting surveys, and those based on annual data that become available from local administrations. In view of the fact that all these methods have their drawbacks, the author recommends a judicious use of all three approaches in order to obtain the best possible estimates.
Correspondence: C. Bergouignan, Université Montesquieu--Bordeaux IV, Avenue Léon-Duguit, 33608 Pessac, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40156 Hungary. Központi Statisztikai Hivatal (Budapest, Hungary). The spatial distribution of the Slovak population by nationality and administrative district, 1991. [A Szlovák köztársaság településeinek nemzetiségi, vallási adatai, 1991.] ISBN 963-215-129-1. 1996. 367 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Hun. with sum. in Eng.
This is one in a series of publications that the Hungarian statistical office is publishing on the population of areas that in the past were part of Hungary, but now form part or all of independent countries. This publication gives results from the 1991 census of Slovakia on population by sex, religion, and ethnic group by district.
Correspondence: Központi Statisztikai Hivatal, Keleti Károly Utca 5-7, 1024 Budapest, Hungary. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40157 Kucera, Milan; Simek, Miroslav. Population development of the Czech Republic in 1998 (based on the results of the Czech statistical office processing). [Vývoj obyvatelstva Ceské republiky v roce 1998 (Zvýsledku zpracování Ceského statistického úradu).] Demografie, Vol. 41, No. 3, 1999. 169-83 pp. Prague, Czech Republic. In Cze. with sum. in Eng.
The authors summarize population trends in the Czech Republic in 1998 and compare these trends with those of previous years. Aspects considered include nuptiality, live birth rate, fertility rate, life expectancy, death rate, population decrease, age structure, and future changes.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40158 Labat, Jean-Claude. A new method to estimate local populations. [Une nouvelle méthode d'estimations des population locales.] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 141-52 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Ways to estimate population at the local level in a country that does not have a national population register in the period between censuses are examined by describing some recent French efforts to resolve this problem. The French solution described here is based on using data from a variety of sources to prepare such estimates.
Correspondence: J.-C. Labat, Institut National de la Statistique et des Etudes Economiques, 18 boulevard Adolphe Pinard, 75675 Paris Cedex 14, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40159 Lévy, Michel L. All the countries of the world (1999). [Tous les pays du monde (1999).] Population et Sociétés, No. 348, Jul-Aug 1999. 8 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
This issue presents the demographic data on individual countries around the world compiled on a regular basis by the Population Reference Bureau [PRB]. In addition, some comparisons are made between the PRB data and some recent estimates and projections made by the United Nations.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40160 Monnier, Alain; de Guibert-Lantoine, Catherine. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 4, 1992. 233-52 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The authors provide information on the demographic situation in Europe and other developed countries. Tabular data are included on population size, births, and deaths; fertility; nuptiality; divorce; abortions; and mortality.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: monnier@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40161 Mostafa, Golam. Health and Demographic Surveillance System, Matlab--1998: early indicators. ICDDR, B Monograph, May 1999. 12 pp. International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh [ICDDR, B]: Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
This report presents some data collected during 1998 by the Health and Demographic Surveillance System in Matlab, Bangladesh. Tables and figures provide information on population size and characteristics; fertility and contraceptive use; mortality, including infant and child mortality, life expectancy, and cause of death; marriage; seasonality of births and deaths; and immunization coverage.
Correspondence: G. Mostafa, International Centre for Diarrhoeal Disease Research, Bangladesh, Health and Demographic Surveillance System, G.P.O. Box 128, Dhaka 1000, Bangladesh. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40162 Mozambique. Direcção Nacional de Estatística (Maputo, Mozambique). Population projections by year: 1980-2030. [Projecções anuais da população total: 1980-2030.] Inquérito Demográfico Nacional, No. 2, Feb 1994. 57 pp. Maputo, Mozambique. In Por.
Population estimates and projections are provided by age and sex for Mozambique from 1980 to 2030.
Correspondence: Comissão Nacional do Plano, Centro de Documentação Económica, Avenida Ahmed Sekou Touré No. 21, 1o andar, C.P. 491, Maputo, Mozambique. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40163 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyrå (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population by age, sex, and marital status. January 1, 1998. Revised version. [Folkemengd etter kjønn, alder og sivilstand. 1. januar 1998. Korrigert utgave.] Aktuelle Befolkningstall, No. 6, Oct 1998. 71 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
The former Population Statistics Volume II from Norway's Offisielle Statistikk has been replaced by this publication in a new series entitled New Figures on Population. The publication contains revised data on population in Norway by age, sex, and marital status as per January 1, 1998, compiled on the basis of data extracts from the Central Population Register. The data are presented separately by county and municipality.
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Salg- og Abonnementservice, Postboks 1260, 2201 Kongsvinger, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40164 Norway. Statistisk Sentralbyrå (Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway). Population on January 1, 1998, and population changes in 1997. Provisional figures for municipalities. [Folkemengd 1 januar 1998 og endringar i 1997. Endelige tal for kommunar.] Aktuelle Befolkningstall, No. 8, Dec 1998. 21 pp. Oslo-Kongsvinger, Norway. In Nor.
The former Population Statistics Volume I from Norway's Offisielle Statistikk has been replaced by this publication in a new series entitled New Figures on Population. The publication contains figures on population size in Norway per January 1, 1998, and final figures on changes in population size in 1997 for counties, regions, and municipalities. The figures are compiled on the basis of data extracted from the Central Population Register.
Correspondence: Statistisk Sentralbyrå, Salg- og Abonnementservice, Postboks 1260, 2201 Kongsvinger, Norway. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40165 Population Reference Bureau [PRB] (Washington, D.C.). 1999 United States population data sheet. 1999. 1 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This poster provides tabular data on U.S. population characteristics. Information is included by state on population size, growth rate, and spatial distribution; infant deaths; age distribution; household income; ethnic groups, 1997 and 2015; percent nonwhite; and percent foreign born.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. E-mail: popref@prb.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40166 Population Reference Bureau [PRB] (Washington, D.C.). 1999 world population data sheet: demographic data and estimates for the countries and regions of the world. 1999. 12 pp. Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This world population data sheet, available in poster or booklet form, provides demographic statistics for countries and regions in 1999. Information is included on population size and growth, births, deaths, natural increase, infant mortality, fertility, age distribution, life expectancy, contraceptive use, and gross national product.
Correspondence: Population Reference Bureau, 1875 Connecticut Avenue NW, Suite 520, Washington, D.C. 20009-5728. E-mail: popref@prb.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40167 Prioux, France. Recent demographic trends. [L'évolution démographique récente.] Population, Vol. 54, No. 3, May-Jun 1999. 449-79 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
Recent demographic trends in France are reviewed. Consideration is given to fertility, induced abortion, marriage patterns, divorce, and differential mortality. Comparisons are made with other European countries.
Correspondence: F. Prioux, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40168 Russia. Goskomstat Rossii (Moscow, Russia). The size of the population of the Russian Federation by cities, urban settlements, and regions as of January 1, 1998. [Chislennost' naseleniya Rossiiskoi Federatsii po gorodam, poselkam gorodskogo tipa i raionam na 1 Yanvarya 1998 g.] 1998. 241 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population estimates are presented for the Russian Federation for 1997. The estimates are presented by regions, administrative divisions, urban areas and settlements, and rural areas.
For previous estimates for 1996, see 64:40072.
Correspondence: Goskomstat Rossii, Izmailovskoe Shosse 44, 105679 Moscow, Russia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40169 Sailer, Peter; Weber, Michael. The IRS population count: an update. In: 1998 proceedings of the section on government statistics and section on social statistics. [1998]. 186-90 pp. American Statistical Association [ASA]: Alexandria, Virginia. In Eng.
This is a continuation of the authors' study on the problems involved in using IRS administrative records to prepare estimates of the U.S. population size. "Organizationally, this paper is divided into four sections. First, we will demonstrate how administrative records can be used to compute a population estimate. Then we will discuss the reliability of this estimate. Next, we will compare estimates from our data base, classified by age, sex, and state, to population data published by the Census Bureau. And finally, we will summarize our conclusions and make some recommendations for further research."
For an earlier study on the same topic, see 62:30059.
Correspondence: P. Sailer, U.S. Internal Revenue Service, P.O. Box 608, Washington, D.C. 20013-2608. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40170 Westoff, Charles F. The global population outlook. In: America's demographic tapestry: baseline for the new millennium, edited by James W. Hughes and Joseph J. Seneca. 1999. 43-9 pp. Rutgers University Press: New Brunswick, New Jersey. In Eng.
Global population trends are reviewed, with consideration given to future prospects, the differences between developed and developing countries, and the lack of public concern with demographic issues.
Correspondence: C. F. Westoff, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

65:40171 Alders, M.; de Beer, J. Probability distribution of the future population, 1998-2050. [Kansverdeling van de toekomstige bevolking, 1998-2050.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 10, Oct 1999. 28-36 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"According to the medium variant of the 1998-based population forecasts of Statistics Netherlands the population of the Netherlands will grow from 15.8 million persons in 1999 to 17.4 million people in 2035. After 2035 population size will decrease to a level slightly above 17 million people in 2050. This forecast is based on assumptions about the likely future development of fertility, mortality, and migration.... In order to assess the degree of uncertainty of future population size and age structure, stochastic population forecasts were made. On the basis of assumptions about the degree of uncertainty of future fertility, mortality, and migration a probability distribution of future population size and age structure is calculated...."
Correspondence: M. Alders, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, Netherlands. E-mail: mals@cbs.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40172 Alders, M. Stochastic household forecast 1998-2050. [Stochastische huishoudensprognose 1998-2050.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 11, Nov 1999. 25-34 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
Forecasts of future trends in households in the Netherlands are presented. "The stochastic household forecast is based on assumptions about the uncertainty of future changes in the distribution of population by sex, age and household position. The main assumptions concern the age at leaving the parental home, the proportions of people living alone or with a partner and the proportion of the population living in institutional households. A strong correlation exists between household positions. A relatively high proportion of singles at a certain age will automatically lead to a relatively small proportion of persons living with a partner at that age. To model this type of correlation conditional probabilities are used."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40173 Banens, Maks. Projecting small-area populations. [La prévision des sous-populations territoriales.] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 195-205 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Some of the factors that need to be taken into account when making small-area population projections for France are examined using projections for the department of Hérault up to the year 2020 as an example. The need to modify extrapolations based on past trends by taking into account information gained from a rational analysis of current trends is stressed.
Correspondence: M. Banens, Université de Picardie Jules Verne, Chemin du Thil, 80025 Amiens Cedex 01, France. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40174 Birg, H.; Flöthmann, E.-J.; Frein, Th.; Ströker, K. Calculations for simulating population trends in the old and new German states in the twenty-first century. [Simulationsrechnungen zur Bevölkerungsentwicklung in den alten und neuen Bundesländern im 21. Jahrhundert.] IBS-Materialien, Vol. 45, ISBN 3-923340-39-7. 1998. 232 pp. Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik [IBS]: Bielefeld, Germany. In Ger.
The authors present population projections for Germany to the year 2100. The projections are also given separately for East and West Germany. They suggest that the two most important trends during this time will be population aging, and increasing internationalization through migration.
Correspondence: Universität Bielefeld, Institut für Bevölkerungsforschung und Sozialpolitik, Postfach 100131, 33501 Bielefeld, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40175 Courbage, Youssef. Reshuffling the demographic cards in Israel/Palestine. Journal of Palestine Studies, Vol. 28, No. 4, Summer 1999. 21-39 pp. Berkeley, California. In Eng.
"After analyzing the data from the 1997 Palestinian census, this article looks at the likely demographic evolution in Israel/Palestine as a whole and within Israel proper (pre-1967 borders), both with regard to the Jewish and Arab populations and within the Jewish segment on the basis of geographic origin (Ashkenazi and Mizrahim). Finally, a few observations are made regarding the political consequences of demographic developments."
Correspondence: Y. Courbage, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40176 de Beer, J. Population development 1900-2100. [Bevolkingsontwikkeling 1900-2100.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 12, Dec 1999. 9-16 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"In the 20th century population size in the Netherlands has increased from 5.1 million in 1900 to almost 15.9 million in 2000. The population size will continue to grow in the 21st century, but the rate of growth will slow down. In the first four decades of the 21st century population will grow by 1.5 million people. Subsequently population size will decrease slightly to 17.1 million at the end of the 21st century."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40177 de Beer, J.; Alders, M. Stochastic population forecast. [Stochastische bevolkingsprognose.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 10, Oct 1999. 10-7 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This general introduction to population forecasting is based on a paper, originally in English, that was presented at the European Population Conference held in The Hague, Netherlands, in 1999. Copies of the paper can be obtained from the first author on request.
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, Netherlands. E-mail: jber@cbs.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40178 de Beer, J.; Alders, M. Uncertainty range of fertility, mortality, and migration. [Onzekerheidsmarges voor geboorte, sterfte en migratie.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 10, Oct 1999. 18-27 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut.
This article is based on a paper, originally in English and entitled Probabilistic population and household forecasts for the Netherlands, that was presented at the European Population Conference held in The Hague, Netherlands, in 1999. Copies of the paper can be obtained from the first author on request.
Correspondence: J. de Beer, Statistics Netherlands, Department of Population, P.O. Box 4000, 2270 JM Voorburg, Netherlands. E-mail: jber@cbs.nl. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40179 de Beer, Joop; van Wissen, Leo. Europe: one continent, different worlds. Population scenarios for the 21st century. European Studies of Population, Vol. 7, ISBN 0-7923-5841-4. LC 99-34299. 1999. xvi, 189 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
On the occasion of the European Population Conference 1999, "two of the organisers...decided to produce a set of two population scenarios, showing the possible impact of converging and diverging population trends in the next century.... On the basis of the two sets of assumptions about future fertility, mortality and migration, the population scenarios project changes in the size and age structure of the population over the next 50 years for 33 European countries. This book describes the specific assumptions underlying the scenarios and presents the main demographic outcomes. The enclosed CD-ROM with the Scenariobrowser includes detailed results."
Correspondence: Kluwer Academic Publishers, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AH Dordrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40180 De Gans, Henk A. Population forecasting 1895-1945: the transition to modernity. European Studies of Population, Vol. 5, ISBN 0-7923-5537-7. LC 98-45860. 1999. xiv, 290 pp. Kluwer Academic: Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"This book comprises the history of the origin and establishment of modern population forecasting methodology and the resistance the new methodology met. It demonstrates...that the emergence of modern population forecasting resulted in a drastic change of the societal position of the forecaster, the consequences of which resound till present time. The book uncovers the first contribution to the description and theory of the demographic transition in the publications of the early innovators of population forecasting. It lays bare the pioneering position of inter-war population forecasting in the Netherlands and clarifies why the innovative endeavours of Dutch population forecasters of that period remained hidden in international histories nevertheless."
Correspondence: Kluwer Academic Publishers Group, P.O. Box 17, 3300 AA Dordrecht, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40181 Hirschman, Charles. Race and ethnic population projections: a critical evaluation of their content and meaning. Seattle Population Research Center Working Paper, No. 99-13, Oct 1998. 33 pp. University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center: Seattle, Washington. In Eng.
"In this essay, I raise fundamental questions about the technical bases and the standard interpretation of the long-term projections of the U.S. population by race and ethnicity." Sections are included on the content of race and ethnic population projections, the assumptions driving the projections, measurement in past censuses, patterns of ethnic intermarriage, and the uncertainty of ethnic identity.
Correspondence: University of Washington, Seattle Population Research Center, Box 353340, Seattle, WA 98195. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40182 Hugo, Graeme. Six billion and counting: global population trends at the turn of the century. People and Place, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1999. 11-8 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"This paper seeks to summarise the findings of the latest biennial revision of world population projections made by the United Nations Population Division in 1998.... The projections are prepared for five main fertility assumptions (medium, high, high/medium, low/medium and low) as well as two illustrative (but unrealistic) scenarios, one of instant achievement of replacement fertility (which shows `the momentum' of population growth) and one of keeping current levels of fertility constant."
Correspondence: G. Hugo, University of Adelaide, Department of Geography, Adelaide, SA 5001, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40183 Johnson, Hans P. How many Californians? A review of population projections for the state. California Counts: Population Trends and Profiles, Vol. 1, No. 1, Oct 1999. 12 pp. Public Policy Institute of California: San Francisco, California. In Eng.
"To give policymakers and others concerned with projecting population a sense of the range of projections and why the range is so wide, this report compares and analyzes population projections produced for [California] by various organizations: the California Department of Finance, the U.S. Census Bureau, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis, UCLA, and the Center for Continuing Study of the California Economy. Those projections are used in short- and long-range planning by local, state, and federal government agencies, as well as by private firms."
Correspondence: Public Policy Institute of California, 500 Washington Street, Suite 800, San Francisco, CA 94111. E-mail: info@ppic.org. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40184 Kabir, M.; Sarkar, Madhusudan; Sharma, P. D. The prospect for stabilization of Bangladesh's population: alternative scenarios. Bangladesh Development Studies, Vol. 25, No. 1-2, Mar-Jun 1997. 173-87 pp. Dhaka, Bangladesh. In Eng.
Prospects for stabilization of the population of Bangladesh under four alternative demographic scenarios are examined. The authors note that, if the present rate of fertility decline continues, a replacement level rate of fertility will be achieved by the year 2002. A population model developed in connection with the Sustainable Human Development Project is used to examine four alternative scenarios concerning the implications of the year in which replacement levels of fertility will be achieved for the size of the population in the year 2050.
Location: Princeton University Library (PF).

65:40185 Khaw, Kay-Tee. How many, how old, how soon? British Medical Journal, Vol. 319, No. 7221, Nov 20, 1999. 1,350-2 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"In this article I present population projections for the United Kingdom and discuss some possible implications for health.... [Data are from] age specific population projections to 2066 for the United Kingdom from the Office for National Statistics." The results indicate that "the number of people aged 60 years and over in the United Kingdom is projected to increase from 12 million (20% of the population) in 2001 to 18.6 million in 2031 (30%) [and] the numbers of people with various chronic diseases and disabilities are also projected to increase two to threefold."
Correspondence: K.-T. Khaw, University of Cambridge, School of Clinical Medicine, Addenbrookes Hospital, Clinical Gerontology Unit, Box 251, Cambridge CB2 2QQ, England. E-mail: Kk101@medschl.cam.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (SZ).

65:40186 Kippen, Rebecca. A note on ageing, immigration and the birthrate. People and Place, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1999. 18-22 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"The ageing of Australia's population is inevitable. Immigration could increase the size of the population substantially but still have little effect on the age structure. If policymakers want to minimise the proportion aged 65 and over without adding large numbers of extra people, it would be more effective to adopt policies that raised fertility."
Correspondence: R. Kippen, Australian National University, Research School of Social Sciences, Demography Program, Canberra, ACT 0200, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40187 Leridon, Henri. Six billion...and then? [Six milliards...et après?] Population et Sociétés, No. 352, Dec 1999. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
On the occasion of the world population reaching an estimated total of six billion, the author examines the prospects for future stabilization of the world's population. The various projections prepared by the United Nations are reviewed and the likelihood of their accuracy assessed. The author concludes that the end of global population growth is probably in sight, but that the poorest regions are likely to continue to experience considerable population growth for some time to come.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40188 Li, Nan; Hu, Huaqing. Random demographic projection for China. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1998. 121-31 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The LTC method for random demographic projection...consists of random mortality and fertility projection and random demographic projection.... In this study, the LTC method is used in the random demographic projection for China. As part of the scientific decision-making process, the probability is given of a certain demographic condition appearing at a future point in order to evaluate quantitatively the possibility of achieving population control at that point as a basic national policy. The LTC method itself is also explained."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40189 Louchart, Philippe; Sagot, Mariette. Is it possible to simulate population trends in a large number of zones? [Comment simuler l'évolution de la population d'un grand nombre de zones?] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 171-82 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Some of the problems faced by local planners in France are illustrated in this description of how population projections were prepared for the Ile-de-France region, which contains a population of around 10 million and is divided into 33 different sectors. The various alternative methods that were considered for making these projections are described, and the reasons for choosing a method that involved estimating future population trends for the region as a whole and then proceeding to subregional estimates are explained.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40190 Lutz, Wolfgang. The need to reassess the role of the population variable in global development. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 35, 1998-1999. 30-8 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
The author discusses methods of assessing the role of population trends in sustainable human development. Regional results are presented for probabilistic projections assuming uncorrelated fertility and mortality for 2020, 2050, and 2100.
Correspondence: W. Lutz, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Population Program, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40191 Netherlands. Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek (Voorburg, Netherlands). Monthly Bulletin of Population Statistics. Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Special ed. No. 5, May 1999. [117] pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Eng.
"In 1995 Eurostat commissioned Statistics Netherlands and the Netherlands Interdisciplinary Demographic Institute to compile national and regional population and household scenarios for the countries of the European Economic Area. This special edition of Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking includes reprints of...articles describing both the assumptions underlying these scenarios and the main results." There are articles on population growth, mortality, fertility, international migration, and households.
All these articles are translated from the original Dutch, many of which were cited in Population Index.
Correspondence: Centraal Bureau voor de Statistiek, Prinses Beatrixlaan 428, Postbus 959, 2270, AZ Voorburg, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40192 Nishioka, Hachiro; Suzuki, Toru; Yamamoto, Chizuko; Kojima, Katsuhisa; Koyama, Yasuyo. Household projections for Japan: 1995-2020. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 54, No. 4, 1998. 85-114 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
Household projections are presented by age for Japan up to the year 2020.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40193 O'Neill, Brian C.; Scherbov, Sergei; Lutz, Wolfgang. The long-term effect of the timing of fertility decline on population size. Population and Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Dec 1999. 749-56, 834-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Existing long-range population projections imply that the timing of the fertility transition has a relatively unimportant effect on long-term population size when compared with the impact of the level at which fertility is assumed eventually to stabilize. However, this note shows that the effect of the timing of fertility decline is a function of the eventual fertility rate: the lower the eventual fertility rate, the greater the effect of the timing of the transition becomes. This finding has important implications for projection methodology, as well as for policies related to the consequences of long-term levels of population size."
Correspondence: B. C. O'Neill, Brown University, Watson Institute for International Studies, Providence, RI 02912. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40194 Panama. Dirección de Estadística y Censo (Panama City, Panama). The demographic situation. Population projections for the whole country by sex and age group: 1990-2025. [Situación demográfica. Proyección de la población total del país por sexo, según grupos de edad: años 1990-2025.] Estadística Panameña, Boletín Especial, No. 1, 1999. 25 pp. Panama City, Panama. In Spa.
Official population projections are presented for Panama, based on a variety of sources, including the 1990 census. Four alternative projections are provided for the whole country by sex and age group up to the year 2025.
Correspondence: Dirección de Estadística y Censo, Contraloría General de la República, Apartado 5213, Panama City 5, Panama. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40195 Sagot, Mariette. Population projections and development policies. The case of the Ile-de-France. [Perspectives démographiques et politiques d'aménagement. Le cas de l'Ile-de-France.] In: Démographie et aménagement du territoire: actes du Xe colloque national de démographie. Bordeaux--21, 22, 23 mai 1996, edited by Janine d'Armagnac, Chantal Blayo, and Alain Parant. 1999. 231-6 pp. Conférence Universitaire de Démographie et d'Etude des Populations [CUDEP]: Paris, France; Presses Universitaires de France: Paris, France. In Fre.
Some problems concerning local area population projections in France are examined. Specifically, the author uses experience in making projections for the Ile-de-France to attempt to answer three questions: Do past errors in making such projections justify not using them in future? What lessons can be learned from the experience of the Ile-de-France in trying to link demography and local planning? And what is the role of the demographer in defining local development policies?
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40196 Tayman, Jeff; Swanson, David A. On the validity of MAPE as a measure of population forecast accuracy. Population Research and Policy Review, Vol. 18, No. 4, Aug 1999. 299-322 pp. Dordrecht, Netherlands. In Eng.
"The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) is the summary measure most often used for evaluating the accuracy of population forecasts. While MAPE has many desirable criteria, we argue from both normative and relative standpoints that the widespread practice of exclusively using it for evaluating population forecasts should be changed. Normatively, we argue that MAPE does not meet the criterion of validity because as a summary measure it overstates the error found in a population forecast. We base this argument on logical grounds and support it empirically, using a sample of population forecasts for [U.S.] counties. From a relative standpoint, we examine two alternatives to MAPE, both sharing with it, the important conceptual feature of using most of the information about error. These alternatives are symmetrical MAPE (SMAPE) and a class of measures known as M-estimators. The empirical evaluation suggests M-estimators do not overstate forecast error as much as either MAPE or SMAPE and are, therefore, more valid measures of accuracy."
Correspondence: J. Tayman, San Diego Association of Governments, 401 B Street, Suite 800, San Diego, CA 92101-4231. E-mail: jta@sandag.cog.ca.us. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40197 Tharakan, P. K. Michael; Navaneetham, K. Population projection and policy implications for education: a discussion with reference to Kerala. Centre for Development Studies Working Paper, No. 296, Jun 1999. 38 pp. Centre for Development Studies: Thiruvananthapuram, India. In Eng.
"In the context of high levels of public expenditure, already committed to the educational sector in States like Kerala, it is argued that there should be restrictions on further investment. Such arguments are apparently supported by the fact that the birth rate is declining and therefore it will result in lesser number of school age population. Since this trend directly affect the elementary education sector--the most sensitive--it is important to project the school age populations with realistic assumptions. This study uses the recent information on the trends in fertility and reproductive preferences to make a realistic future assumption on fertility. Since the total fertility rate (TFR) is distorted by the changes in the timing of child bearing, the initial level of TFR was adjusted in the projection assumption."
Correspondence: Centre for Development Studies, Prasanthnagar Road, Ulloor, Thiruvananthapuram 695 011, Kerala, India. E-mail: Krpcds15@giasmd01.vsnl.net.in. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40198 Tian, Xueyuan. Trend of the Chinese population in the 21st century and policy choice issues. Chinese Journal of Population Science, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1998. 107-20 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
The author discusses population trends in China during the twenty-first century. Sections are included on overall trends in population and birth control; development of education, employment policy, and reform; the growth of the working-age population and unemployment; population aging and elderly support; urbanization and transfer of rural surplus labor; and the increasingly mobile population and the development of central and western China.
Correspondence: X. Tian, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, Institute of Population Studies, 5 Jianguomennei Avenue, Beijing 100732, China. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40199 United Kingdom. Office for National Statistics (London, England). National population projections, 1996-based. No. 21, ISBN 0-11-621160-1. 1999. viii, 55 pp. London, England. In Eng.
Population projections are presented by age and sex for the United Kingdom, Great Britain, and the constituent countries up to the year 2066.
Correspondence: Stationery Office, Publications Centre, P.O. Box 276, London SW8 5DT, England. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40200 Yadava, K. N. S.; Yadava, Surendar S. A comparative study of measures employed for projecting the population size and the number of households. In: Studies in applied demography: proceedings of the 5th International Conference on Applied Demography, 1994, edited by K. Vaninadha Rao. 1996. 79-94 pp. Bowling Green State University, Department of Sociology, Population and Society Research Center: Bowling Green, Ohio. In Eng.
"This paper deals with the issue of estimating the trends of future growth of population and households, simultaneously. For this purpose, measures such as the household to population ratio, age-specific headship rate, household composition matrix, and household fertility have been applied under certain assumptions. The system under consideration has been assumed to be open to migration. The consistencies of the projections obtained and the measures employed have also been discussed with the help of data from two sample surveys conducted in rural areas of northern India, using household as a unit of measurement, over a period of 13 years. The estimates of population and household at given future dates indicate that, among the measures used, the household composition matrix and the household fertility measures are relatively more consistent."
Correspondence: K. N. S. Yadava, Banaras Hindu University, Department of Statistics, Varanasi 221 005, India. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

65:40201 Antonov, Anatolii I. Russia's demographic future: Is depopulation here forever? [Demograficheskoe budushchee Rossii: depopulyatsiya navsegda?] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, No. 3, 1999. 80-7, 157 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus. with sum. in Eng.
The author "looks into the trends developing in Russian families and the birth rates. [He] comes to the conclusion that depopulation might turn into a decisive factor for the Russian Federation in the first third of the twenty-first century. Forecast birth rates are criticized for taking no consideration of sociologically obtained findings related to the family attitudes for decreasing the number of children in a family. A strong supportive policy regarding...families with children is seen as the only way to an improvement in the demographic situation of Russia."
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:40202 Goldstein, Joshua R.; Schlag, Wilhelm. Longer life and population growth. Population and Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Dec 1999. 741-7, 83-6 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"Enthusiasm about the prospect of large increases in human life expectancy is often dampened by fears that lower mortality will increase population size, hence population pressure. A simple mathematical model of life-cycle stretching demonstrates that if increased longevity is accompanied by later childbearing, a trend that is already underway, future declines in mortality will not increase population size."
Correspondence: J. R. Goldstein, Princeton University, Office of Population Research, 21 Prospect Avenue, Princeton, NJ 08544-2091. E-mail: josh@princeton.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40203 Heuveline, Patrick. The global and regional impact of mortality and fertility transitions, 1950-2000. Population and Development Review, Vol. 25, No. 4, Dec 1999. 681-702, 833-5 pp. New York, New York. In Eng. with sum. in Fre; Spa.
"During the second half of the twentieth century, world population grew at a record pace, both in absolute and relative terms, from 2.5 billion to 6 billion (or 1.75 percent annually). Demographers have long identified rapid mortality declines as the main explanation. This article finds that one-fourth of today's world population is alive because of mortality improvements since mid-century. Very rapid growth is unlikely to continue as substantial fertility declines also occurred in recent decades. This article finds that already by the year 2000, these fertility declines have almost exactly compensated for the impact of mortality declines from mid-century levels. This result may suggest homeostasis, but analyses of underlying trends contradict this impression. First, the impact of fertility declines will soon and significantly exceed that of mortality declines. Second, that mortality and fertility declines jointly affect the size of the world population by less than one percent conceals a significant impact on the population's age composition as well as on regional population sizes."
Correspondence: P. Heuveline, University of Chicago, Department of Sociology, Chicago, IL 60637-2799. E-mail: p-heuveline@uchicago.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40204 Monnier, Alain; Rychtarikova, Jitka. The division of Europe into east and west. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 4, 1992. 129-59 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
"In May-June 1991, Population presented a special issue on Eastern Europe. The classic population trends were examined in turn, to provide an overall view of the situation in this region on the eve of its radical political transformation. After 40 years of parallel histories, the populations of Eastern Europe had in many cases come to show common demographic profiles. [The authors] reconsider these elements here in a comparison with Western Europe and show how, since 1950, the two blocs have first moved together, then apart."
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: monnier@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40205 Nahari, Bahman L. The momentum of population growth in Iran. Nameye Olum-e-Ejtema'i/Journal of Social Sciences, No. 13, Spring-Summer 1999. Tehran, Iran. In Per. with sum. in Eng.
Recent demographic trends in Iran are analyzed. The author notes that although fertility is declining rapidly, the momentum of past demographic trends means that the population will continue to grow over the next 35 years by about 25 million. Future trends are analyzed using the stable population method developed by Lotka.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40206 Reuna, Veera. Population data on Finland 1900-1998. Yearbook of Population Research in Finland, Vol. 35, 1998-1999. 196-203 pp. Helsinki, Finland. In Eng.
Tabular data are presented for Finland for the period 1900-1998. Information is included on population size, age structure, fertility, live births, abortions, marriages, consensual unions, divorces, family type and size, deaths, life expectancy, international and internal migration, the labor force, and unemployment.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40207 Rogers, Andrei; Little, Jani; Raymer, James. Disaggregating the historical demographic sources of regional foreign-born and native-born population growth in the United States: a new method with applications. International Journal of Population Geography, Vol. 5, No. 6, Nov-Dec 1999. 449-75 pp. Chichester, England. In Eng.
"In this paper we offer a general method for analysing the demographic processes that contribute to population growth and redistribution in a multiregional system.... It uses an open multiregional projection model framework for identifying the contributions to regional growth made by each of the principal demographic components of change: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, in-migration and out-migration. At the same time, the method recognises the important of disaggregating the native-born and foreign-born populations." The method is applied to U.S. data for the period 1950-1990.
Correspondence: A. Rogers, University of Colorado, Institute of Behavioral Science, Population Program, Campus Box 484, Boulder, CO 80309-0484. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:40208 Sutton, Keith. Demographic transition in the Maghreb. Geography, Vol. 84, Pt. 2, No. 363, Apr 1999. 111-8 pp. Sheffield, England. In Eng.
The author comments on an article by John Clarke, in which Clarke "demonstrated the very limited demographic transition experienced by North Africa as part of the Muslim World. Over a decade later all the Maghreb countries, together with Egypt, have achieved quite marked demographic transition based on strong fertility decline.... Factors behind this transition include urbanisation, the education of women and their greater participation in employment, and family planning. Another factor, whose potential was considered by Clarke in 1985, is the contribution of Maghreb immigrant families in Europe to changing value systems in their home communities, leading to fertility decline."
Correspondence: K. Sutton, University of Manchester, Department of Geography, Oxford Road, Manchester M13 9PL, England. E-mail: K.Sutton@manchester.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).


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