Volume 65 - Number 2 - Summer 1999

N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models

Studies concerned with demographic methods and with methods from other disciplines that have been applied to demographic data as a whole. Includes mathematical demography and studies on methods of estimation and indirect estimation. Methodological studies and models concerned with one demographic variable, such as migration, are coded under the category concerned with that topic and cross-referenced to this heading. Studies on models used to investigate relationships between demographic variables and for the analysis of empirical data are also coded under this heading.

65:20736 Bartlett, Albert A. Arithmetic of growth: methods of calculation, II. Population and Environment, Vol. 20, No. 3, Jan 1999. 215-46 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"This tutorial develops simple mathematical models to show how to calculate approximate average rates of growth of descendants using very simple assumptions.... The model is then enlarged to describe the growth of populations and to see how the growth of populations is related to the growth of descendants and to fertility. The analysis is then generalized so it can be applied to other reproductive phenomena, such as the production of Ph.D.s. The goal is to illustrate the essential features of the simplest elements of the population growth process by introducing modeling that is within the reach of those who can use algebra."
Correspondence: A. A. Bartlett, University of Colorado, Department of Physics, Boulder, CO 80309-0390. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20737 Karia, S. R.; Toivonen, Juhani; Arjas, Elja. Analysis of contraceptive failure data in intrauterine device studies: modern competing risks approach. Contraception, Vol. 58, No. 6, Dec 1998. 361-74 pp. New York, New York. In Eng.
"The life table method used heretofore in case of intrauterine device (IUD) failure data requires grouping of data into intervals. If the termination times are recorded exactly along with the reason of termination, grouping of data results in some loss of information. Modern competing risks techniques are suggested here for the exact IUD failure data.... Also, this paper focuses on the flaws of life table estimates of net and gross rates, which have been widely used during the past three decades in the analysis of contraceptive failures." Data from Finland, Hungary, and Sweden are used for illustration.
Correspondence: S. R. Karia, University of Helsinki, Rolf Nevanlinna Institute, P.O. Box 4, 0014 Helsinki, Finland. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20738 Langford, Ian H.; Leyland, Alastair H.; Rasbash, Jon; Goldstein, Harvey. Multilevel modelling of the geographical distributions of diseases. Journal of the Royal Statistical Society, Series C: Applied Statistics, Vol. 48, No. 2, 1999. 253-68 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Multilevel modelling is used on problems arising from the analysis of spatially distributed health data. We use three applications to demonstrate the use of multilevel modelling in this area. The first concerns small area all-cause mortality rates from Glasgow where spatial autocorrelation between residuals is examined. The second analysis is of prostate cancer cases in Scottish counties where we use a range of models to examine whether the incidence is higher in more rural areas. The third develops a multiple-cause model in which deaths from cancer and cardiovascular disease in Glasgow are examined simultaneously in a spatial model. We discuss some of the issues surrounding the use of complex spatial models and the potential for future developments."
Correspondence: I. H. Langford, University of East Anglia, Centre for Social and Economic Research on the Global Environment, School of Environmental Sciences, Norwich NR4 7TJ, England. E-mail: i.langford@uea.ac.uk. Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

65:20739 Martcheva, Maia; Milner, Fabio A. A two-sex age-structured population model: well posedness. Mathematical Population Studies, Vol. 7, No. 2, 1999. 111-29 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng. with sum. in Fre.
"In this paper we consider a two-sex population model proposed by Hoppenstead. We do not assume any special form of the mating function. We address the problem of existence and uniqueness of continuous and classical solutions. We give sufficient conditions for continuous solutions to exist globally and we show that they have in fact a directional derivative in the direction of the characteristic lines and satisfy the equations of the model with the directional derivative replacing the partial derivatives. The existence of classical solutions is established with mild assumptions on the vital rates."
Correspondence: F. A. Milner, Purdue University, Department of Mathematics, West Lafayette, IN 47907-1395. E-mail: MILNER@Math.purdue.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20740 Obuchi, Hiroshi; Takahashi, Shigesato; Kaneko, Ryuichi; Kato, Hisakazu; Wada, Kohei; Iwasawa, Miho; Harada, Rie. Toward an integration of various models of marriage formation and fertility. Jinko Mondai Kenkyu/Journal of Population Problems, Vol. 54, No. 1, 1998. 88-119 pp. Tokyo, Japan. In Jpn.
This is a theoretical study on the integration of models concerned with marriage and fertility.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20741 Swanson, David A.; Hough, George C.; Rodriguez, Joseph A.; Clemans, Chuck. K-12 enrollment forecasting: merging methods and judgment. ERS Spectrum, Vol. 16, No. 4, Fall 1998. 24-31 pp. Arlington, Virginia. In Eng.
"This article describes an enrollment forecasting process in which technical experts and local community stakeholders [in Oregon] worked together to produce data that were cost-efficient and yet accurate enough to serve as the basis for sound decisions. The large school district that employed this process gained valuable insights to guide its attendance zone and facilities planning decisions, and also created a group of key communicators to ensure community understanding and support."
Correspondence: D. A. Swanson, Science Applications International Corporation, 3245 Palm Center Drive, Las Vegas, NV 89103. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20742 Wardwell, John M. Community mobility and public school enrollments. Research in Rural Sociology and Development, Vol. 7, 1998. 131-54 pp. Stamford, Connecticut/London, England. In Eng.
"This paper has two related purposes. The first is to present an argument for the systematic use of public school enrollments data to study family mobility at the community level. The second is to demonstrate the utility of these data for mobility research. This is accomplished with case studies, chosen for distinctive patterns of movement which have produced observed changes in enrollments data, and which correspond to migration patterns of interest to research. The case studies are illustrative of the potential for the use of these data to illuminate patterns of movement that might otherwise go largely undetected."
Correspondence: J. M. Wardwell, Washington State University, Department of Rural Sociology, Pullman, WA 99164. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

Copyright © 1999, Office of Population Research, Princeton University.