D. Trends in Population Growth and Size

Studies on changes over time in population size and the bases of their estimation. Studies that are concerned primarily with the methodology of trends, estimations, and projections are classified under this heading and cross-referenced to N. Methods of Research and Analysis Including Models. Studies dealing with two or more of the topics listed in this division are coded under D.2. Current Rates and Estimates and cross-referenced where appropriate.

D.1. Past Trends

Studies of observed data on population growth in the past and its components. Includes studies that are primarily concerned with population trends up to and including World War II.

65:20055 Hungarian Academy of Sciences. Subcommittee for Historical Demography (Budapest, Hungary); Hungary. Központi Statisztikai Hivatal. Library and Documentation Service (Budapest, Hungary). The population history of Hungary in the light of a conference series (summary). Review of Historical Demography/Historisch-Demographische Mitteilungen, No. 9, 1998. 45-78 pp. Budapest, Hungary. In Eng.
This is a report on papers presented at a 1995 conference series concerned with population characteristics in Hungary. Descriptions are grouped according to time period, beginning with the late Middle Ages and early modern times. Aspects considered include history, population size and growth, ethnic composition, political events, migrations, and censuses.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20056 Livi Bacci, Massimo. Population and the history of Europe. [La popolazione nella storia d'Europa.] Fare l'Europa, ISBN 88-420-5577-8. 1998. viii, 300 pp. Laterza: Bari, Italy. In Ita.
This is a history of European population developments over the past millennium. The author describes population dynamics in Europe before the Industrial Revolution, with chapters on spatial distribution, the food supply, disease, and a demographic system regulated primarily by changes in marriage and migration patterns. The last two chapters are devoted to the demographic transition that occurred in the nineteenth century and to the demographic situation that has emerged in the period following that transition.
Correspondence: Editori Laterza, Piazza Umberto 1/54, 70121 Bari, Italy. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20057 Nasibullin, Ravil' T. The republic's population during the last 100 years. [Naselenie respubliki za poslednie 100 let.] Sotsiologicheskie Issledovaniya, Vol. 24, No. 8, 1997. 36-9 pp. Moscow, Russia. In Rus.
Population trends in the Russian republic of Bashkortostan over the past 100 years are reviewed. Consideration is given to the changes in the republic's ethnic composition over the years.
Location: Princeton University Library (PR).

D.2. Current Rates and Estimates

Studies of censal and other estimates based on current data, together with the relevant methodological studies. Includes studies from World War II up to the present day.

65:20058 Lévy, Michel L. Between two censuses: 1990-1999. [Entre deux recensements: 1990-1999.] Population et Sociétés, No. 344, Mar 1999. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
The author examines official population projections made in France during the inter-censal period 1990-1999 and compares them with the revised population estimates for 1999. He discusses in detail the assumptions upon which the projections were based, noting that fertility on average was somewhat lower than expected despite a slight increase toward the end of the decade. Other topics discussed include a leveling-off in female life expectancy and uncertainties in the estimation of the balance of immigration.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20059 McDevitt, Thomas M. World population profile: 1998. U.S. Bureau of the Census Report, No. WP/98, Feb 1999. v, 66, [106] pp. U.S. Agency for International Development [USAID]: Washington, D.C.; U.S. Bureau of the Census: Washington, D.C. In Eng.
This is a general review of the global population situation in 1998. There are chapters on population size and growth and the components of change, population composition and distribution, and contraceptive prevalence, as well as a chapter on HIV/AIDS in the developing world by Karen A. Stanecki and Peter O. Way. There are appendices containing extensive statistical data, and information on population projections and availability of data.
Correspondence: U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents, Mail Stop SSOP, Washington, D.C. 20402-9328. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20060 Monnier, Alain. The demographic situation of Europe and the developed countries overseas: an annual report. Population: An English Selection, Vol. 10, No. 2, 1998. 447-73 pp. Paris, France. In Eng.
The author reviews the demographic situation in Europe. Information is provided on population size, growth, and growth rate; migration; natural increase; natality and fertility; nuptiality and divorce; abortion; and mortality.
Correspondence: A. Monnier, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: monnier@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20061 Mrden, Snjezana; Friganovic, Mladen. The demographic situation in Croatia. Geoadria, Vol. 3, 1998. 29-55 pp. Zadar, Croatia. In Eng. with sum. in Scr.
"In this paper [the] authors discuss demographic features in Croatia [from] the [second] half of the 19th century till 1996, paying special attention to the period since [the] early fifties onwards. Beside...population migration, vital statistics, projections and population development programs have been analysed. It is possible to compare Croatia with some European countries...."
Correspondence: S. Mrden, Filozofski Fakultet u Zadru, Obala Kralja Petra Kresimira IV. 2, 23000 Zadar, Croatia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20062 Prins, C. J. M.; Verhoef, R. Population trends in the Netherlands, 1997. [Demografie van Nederland 1997.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 46, No. 12, Dec 1998. 8-24 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
The authors outline the demographic situation in the Netherlands in 1997. Aspects considered include population size and growth, native and nonnative population, place of birth, household size and composition, marriages and number of children, fertility, divorce, migration, and mortality.
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.3. Projections and Predictions

Studies of both long-term and short-term future trends and studies on the appropriate methodology.

65:20063 Betts, Katharine. Fertility, migration, and the ageing of the population--an analysis of the official projections. People and Place, Vol. 6, No. 4, 1998. 33-7 pp. Clayton, Australia. In Eng.
"As we move through the demographic transition, an older age structure is inevitable but future possible scenarios vary.... The paper analyses nine different population projections produced by the ABS [Australian Bureau of Statistics], four in 1996 and five in 1998. The highest projection...adds an extra ten million people by the year 2051 while the lowest...adds none."
Correspondence: K. Betts, Swinburne University of Technology, Department of Sociology, P.O. Box 218 Hawthorn, Victoria 3122, Australia. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20064 Carter, Lawrence R. Combining probabilistic and subjective assessments of error to provide realistic appraisals of demographic forecast uncertainty: Alho's approach. International Journal of Forecasting, Vol. 14, No. 4, Dec 1998. 523-6 pp. Amsterdam, Netherlands. In Eng.
"With increasing interest in forecast uncertainty, there is an evolving concern with assessing the degree of certainty we can attach to uncertainty itself. This concern is the subject of recent work by Juha Alho.... I examine [his] approach systematically and draw general conclusions about its efficacy. Suggestions for improvement are made."
Correspondence: L. R. Carter, University of Oregon, Department of Sociology, Eugene, OR 97403-1291. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20065 Clarke, Keith C.; Gaydos, Leonard J. Loose-coupling a cellular automaton model and GIS: long-term urban growth prediction for San Francisco and Washington/Baltimore. International Journal of Geographical Information Science, Vol. 12, No. 7, Oct-Nov 1998. 699-714 pp. London, England. In Eng.
"Prior research developed a cellular automaton model, that was calibrated by using historical digital maps of urban areas and can be used to predict the future extent of an urban area. The model has now been applied to two rapidly growing, but remarkably different urban areas: the San Francisco Bay region in California and the Washington/Baltimore corridor in the Eastern United States. This paper presents the calibration and prediction results for both regions, reviews their data requirements, compares the differences in the initial configurations and control parameters for the model in the two settings, and discuses the role of GIS in the applications."
Correspondence: K. C. Clarke, University of California, Department of Geography, Santa Barbara, CA 93106-4060. E-mail: kelarke@geog.ucsb.edu. Location: Princeton University Library (SG).

65:20066 de Beer, J. Population forecasts 1998-2050. [Bevolkingsprognose 1998-2050.] Maandstatistiek van de Bevolking, Vol. 47, No. 1, Jan 1999. 8-19 pp. Voorburg, Netherlands. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"The medium variant of the new Netherlands population forecasts for the period 1998-2050 projects that population size will increase to a maximum of 17.4 million around 2035.... In the new population forecasts population growth is higher due to higher numbers of births and lower numbers of deaths. Even though net migration will be lower than in the previous forecasts, this will only partly offset the higher natural growth. The main cause of the higher projection of population growth is that the new forecasts are based on assumptions about emigration rates, distinguished by age, sex and country of birth, rather than on absolute numbers of emigrants."
Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20067 Goujon, Anne. Population and education prospects in the Western Mediterranean region (Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza strip). IIASA Interim Report, No. IR-97-046, Jul [1997]. 57 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This report studies the demographic and educational futures of Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, the West Bank and the Gaza Strip.... Three population projection paths--low, central, and high--were designed and lead to three different population figures for each area in 2044. This study provides...insights into the demography of these countries, especially with regard to the momentum of population growth and education levels."
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: info@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20068 Lutz, Wolfgang; Scherbov, Sergei. Sensitivity analysis of expert-based probabilistic population projections in the case of Austria. IIASA Interim Report, No. IR-97-048, Aug [1997]. 15 pp. International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [IIASA]: Laxenburg, Austria. In Eng.
"This paper proposes an expert-based probabilistic approach (random scenario approach) that seems to meet important criteria for successful application to national and international [population] projections: (1) it provides significant advantages to current practice, (2) it presents an evolution of current practice rather than a discontinuity, (3) it is scientifically sound, and (4) it is applicable to all countries." The approach is applied to data for Austria.
Correspondence: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Schlossplatz 1, 2361 Laxenburg, Austria. E-mail: info@iiasa.ac.at. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20069 Mehta, Arun C. Population projections: sub-national dimensions. ISBN 81-7169-378-4. 1996. xviii, 298 pp. Commonwealth Publishers: New Delhi, India. In Eng.
The author examines methods of population projection, with a focus on population growth in India in general and Rajasthan in particular. Chapters are included on techniques of population projections; ratio methods used to project regional and national population; single-method econometric techniques; the component method; a regional demographic-economic interaction model; and the best predictor.
Correspondence: Commonwealth Publishers, 4378/4B Murari Lal Street, Ansari Road, Darya Ganj, New Delhi 110 002, India. Location: Population Council Library, New York, NY.

65:20070 Parant, Alain. Demographic perspectives. [Perspectives démographiques.] Futuribles, Jan 1999. 18-24 pp. Paris, France. In Fre.
This is a brief review of possible future developments in global population trends. The author notes that the world's population will number between 8 and 11 billion by the year 2050. Topics discussed include changes in the regional balance of population, changes in the age composition of the population, and demographic aging in Europe.
Correspondence: A. Parant, Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Institut National d'Etudes Demographiques, Paris, France.

65:20071 Schwarz, Karl. Are there alternatives to the expected population trends in Germany? [Gibt es Alternativen zu der für Deutschland erwarteten Bevölkerungsentwicklung?] Zeitschrift für Bevölkerungswissenschaft, Vol. 23, No. 3, 1998. 335-41 pp. Wiesbaden, Germany. In Ger.
This is a discussion of the possibilities of changing the predicted population trends in Germany, which are expected to result in a significant loss of population by the middle of the twenty-first century. After reviewing the possible reasons for the fertility decline in recent decades and the measures that have been and could be taken to attempt to reverse it, the author concludes that there is not much to be done to significantly alter the course of events.
Correspondence: K. Schwarz, Klopstockstraße 14, 65187 Wiesbaden, Germany. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

65:20072 ter Heide, Henk. Half a century of regional population projections in the Netherlands. [Een halve eeuw regionale bevolkingsvooruitberekeningen in Nederland.] Bevolking en Gezin, Vol. 27, No. 1, 1998. 45-77 pp. Brussels, Belgium. In Dut. with sum. in Eng.
"This article describes the history of...regional population projection activity [in the Netherlands]. It deals with the choices made at different times with respect to the...projection process.... It attempts to explain these choices by referring to policy development, scientific advances, socio-cultural factors, organisational factors, and the influence of individual actors."
Correspondence: H. ter Heide, Machtelderf 13, 2743 HD Waddinxveen, Netherlands. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).

D.4. Population Size and Growth

Studies on changes in population between two specific points in time. Includes studies on negative growth, natural increase, zero population growth, and population reproduction.

65:20073 Lévy, Michel L. Departmental population: from 1975-1995. [Populations départementales: bilan 1975-1995.] Population et Sociétés, No. 343, Feb 1999. 4 pp. Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques [INED]: Paris, France. In Fre.
Population trends in France at the regional and departmental level are analyzed over the period 1975-1995 using census data.
Correspondence: Institut National d'Etudes Démographiques, 133 boulevard Davout, 75980 Paris Cedex 20, France. E-mail: ined@ined.fr. Location: Princeton University Library (SPR).